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Public Opinion

  Dr. Christopher S. Rice
“There are
    three
  kinds of
  lies: lies,
 damn lies,
     and
statistics.”
~ Mark Twain
Public Opinion
The politically relevant opinions
 held by ordinary citizens that
 they express openly through
       words or actions.
Polling
Survey
 Systematic interviews by trained,
professional interviewers, who ask
a standardized set of questions of
     a rather small number of
    randomly chosen citizens.
Public Opinion Poll
 a relatively few individuals (the
sample) are interviewed in order
  to estimate the opinions of a
        whole population.
The Theory of Probability
Sampling Error?
The Bell Curve


      68%

      95%
Representative
  (Probability) Sample
sample in which each individual in
   the population has a known
  probability of being selected at
random for inclusion in the survey
Phone Books and
Computer Dialing



            (cc) 2006 mj ecker Some Rights Reserved
What
                                                  about
                                                   Cell
                                                 Phones?

(cc) 2006 Andreww Hubbell Some Rights Reserved
Straw Polls
Unscientific surveys which
make no attempt at using a
 representative (random)
  sample in their polling.
1936 Presidential Election
1948 Presidential
    Election
2004 Zogby Exit Polls
Push polls
Polls which deliberately feed
   respondents misleading
    information or leading
  questions in an effort to
 “push” them into favoring a
particular candidate or issue.
Surveys and Polling

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PS 101 Public Opinion Summer 2008