1. Lampiran B
Uji Kointegrasi :
1. Kemampuan Mengontrol Besaran (aggregate) Moneter
Konvensional
ADF Test Statistic -5.914531 1% Critical Value* -2.6649
5% Critical Value -1.9559
10% Critical Value -1.6231
*MacKinnon critical values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(U_GM1)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 10/24/03 Time: 14:22
Sample(adjusted): 1997:2 2003:1
Included observations: 24 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
U_GM1(-1) -1.193570 0.201803 -5.914531 0.0000
R-squared 0.603225 Mean dependent var 0.101177
Adjusted R-squared 0.603225 S.D. dependent var 6.581339
S.E. of regression 4.145590 Akaike info criterion 5.722741
Sum squared resid 395.2761 Schwarz criterion 5.771827
Log likelihood -67.67289 Durbin-Watson stat 2.058889
ADF Test Statistic -4.586980 1% Critical Value* -2.6649
5% Critical Value -1.9559
10% Critical Value -1.6231
*MacKinnon critical values
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(U_GM2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 10/24/03 Time: 14:24
Sample(adjusted): 1997:2 2003:1
Included observations: 24 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
U_GM2(-1) -0.954047 0.207990 -4.586980 0.0001
R-squared 0.477735 Mean dependent var 0.046279
Adjusted R-squared 0.477735 S.D. dependent var 8.342004
S.E. of regression 6.028590 Akaike info criterion 6.471677
Sum squared resid 835.9096 Schwarz criterion 6.520763
Log likelihood -76.66012 Durbin-Watson stat 1.993555

2. Islamic
ADF Test Statistic -4.977219 1% Critical Value* -2.6649
5% Critical Value -1.9559
10% Critical Value -1.6231
*MacKinnon critical values
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(U_GM1ISL)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 10/24/03 Time: 14:25
Sample(adjusted): 1997:2 2003:1
Included observations: 24 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
U_GM1ISL(-1) -1.053546 0.211674 -4.977219 0.0000
R-squared 0.517825 Mean dependent var -0.039651
Adjusted R-squared 0.517825 S.D. dependent var 1.041282
S.E. of regression 0.723054 Akaike info criterion 2.230108
Sum squared resid 12.02456 Schwarz criterion 2.279194
Log likelihood -25.76130 Durbin-Watson stat 1.962687
ADF Test Statistic -4.240461 1% Critical Value* -2.6649
5% Critical Value -1.9559
10% Critical Value -1.6231
*MacKinnon critical values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(U_GM2ISL)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 10/24/03 Time: 14:25
Sample(adjusted): 1997:2 2003:1
Included observations: 24 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
U_GM2ISL(-1) -0.878444 0.207158 -4.240461 0.0003
R-squared 0.438655 Mean dependent var -0.087073
Adjusted R-squared 0.438655 S.D. dependent var 6.167510
S.E. of regression 4.620883 Akaike info criterion 5.939823
Sum squared resid 491.1089 Schwarz criterion 5.988908
Log likelihood -70.27787 Durbin-Watson stat 1.972285

3. 2. Keterkaitan antara besaran (aggregate) moneter dan tujuan utama
darikebijakan moneter.
Konvensional
ADF Test Statistic -5.059436 1% Critical Value* -2.6819
5% Critical Value -1.9583
10% Critical Value -1.6242
*MacKinnon critical values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(U_GM1)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 10/24/03 Time: 14:27
Sample(adjusted): 1998:1 2003:1
Included observations: 21 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
U_GM1(-1) -1.123641 0.222088 -5.059436 0.0001
R-squared 0.561290 Mean dependent var 0.079638
Adjusted R-squared 0.561290 S.D. dependent var 5.588864
S.E. of regression 3.701796 Akaike info criterion 5.501961
Sum squared resid 274.0658 Schwarz criterion 5.551700
Log likelihood -56.77059 Durbin-Watson stat 1.677333
ADF Test Statistic -7.751888 1% Critical Value* -2.6819
5% Critical Value -1.9583
10% Critical Value -1.6242
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(U_GM2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 10/24/03 Time: 14:28
Sample(adjusted): 1998:1 2003:1
Included observations: 21 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
U_GM2(-1) -1.492747 0.192566 -7.751888 0.0000
R-squared 0.750221 Mean dependent var 0.109123
Adjusted R-squared 0.750221 S.D. dependent var 6.888368
S.E. of regression 3.442664 Akaike info criterion 5.356816
Sum squared resid 237.0387 Schwarz criterion 5.406555
Log likelihood -55.24657 Durbin-Watson stat 1.181220

4. Islamic
ADF Test Statistic -5.249041 1% Critical Value* -2.6819
5% Critical Value -1.9583
10% Critical Value -1.6242
*MacKinnon critical values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(U_GM1ISL)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 10/24/03 Time: 14:29
Sample(adjusted): 1998:1 2003:1
Included observations: 21 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
U_GM1ISL(-1) -1.160362 0.221062 -5.249041 0.0000
R-squared 0.579153 Mean dependent var 0.144178
Adjusted R-squared 0.579153 S.D. dependent var 5.957901
S.E. of regression 3.865053 Akaike info criterion 5.588276
Sum squared resid 298.7727 Schwarz criterion 5.638015
Log likelihood -57.67690 Durbin-Watson stat 1.441724
ADF Test Statistic -4.471417 1% Critical Value* -2.6819
5% Critical Value -1.9583
10% Critical Value -1.6242
*MacKinnon critical values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(U_GM2ISL)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 10/24/03 Time: 14:29
Sample(adjusted): 1998:1 2003:1
Included observations: 21 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
U_GM2ISL(-1) -0.993632 0.222219 -4.471417 0.0002
R-squared 0.499817 Mean dependent var 0.084523
Adjusted R-squared 0.499817 S.D. dependent var 6.039460
S.E. of regression 4.271325 Akaike info criterion 5.788173
Sum squared resid 364.8844 Schwarz criterion 5.837913
Log likelihood -59.77582 Durbin-Watson stat 1.607418

5. 3. Instrumen Kredit
Konvensional
ADF Test Statistic -2.374158 1% Critical Value* -2.6649
5% Critical Value -1.9559
10% Critical Value -1.6231
*MacKinnon critical values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(U)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 10/24/03 Time: 14:30
Sample(adjusted): 1997:2 2003:1
Included observations: 24 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
U(-1) -0.396502 0.167007 -2.374158 0.0263
R-squared 0.196819 Mean dependent var 0.036139
Adjusted R-squared 0.196819 S.D. dependent var 9.037696
S.E. of regression 8.099615 Akaike info criterion 7.062284
Sum squared resid 1508.887 Schwarz criterion 7.111369
Log likelihood -83.74741 Durbin-Watson stat 1.962843
Islamic
ADF Test Statistic -4.536454 1% Critical Value* -2.6649
5% Critical Value -1.9559
10% Critical Value -1.6231
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(U)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 10/24/03 Time: 14:31
Sample(adjusted): 1997:2 2003:1
Included observations: 24 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
U(-1) -0.942442 0.207749 -4.536454 0.0001
R-squared 0.472211 Mean dependent var 0.117077
Adjusted R-squared 0.472211 S.D. dependent var 21.33057
S.E. of regression 15.49646 Akaike info criterion 8.359874
Sum squared resid 5523.228 Schwarz criterion 8.408960
Log likelihood -99.31849 Durbin-Watson stat 1.915607

6. 3. Instrumen Kredit
Konvensional
ADF Test Statistic -2.374158 1% Critical Value* -2.6649
5% Critical Value -1.9559
10% Critical Value -1.6231
*MacKinnon critical values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(U)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 10/24/03 Time: 14:30
Sample(adjusted): 1997:2 2003:1
Included observations: 24 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
U(-1) -0.396502 0.167007 -2.374158 0.0263
R-squared 0.196819 Mean dependent var 0.036139
Adjusted R-squared 0.196819 S.D. dependent var 9.037696
S.E. of regression 8.099615 Akaike info criterion 7.062284
Sum squared resid 1508.887 Schwarz criterion 7.111369
Log likelihood -83.74741 Durbin-Watson stat 1.962843
Islamic
ADF Test Statistic -4.536454 1% Critical Value* -2.6649
5% Critical Value -1.9559
10% Critical Value -1.6231
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(U)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 10/24/03 Time: 14:31
Sample(adjusted): 1997:2 2003:1
Included observations: 24 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
U(-1) -0.942442 0.207749 -4.536454 0.0001
R-squared 0.472211 Mean dependent var 0.117077
Adjusted R-squared 0.472211 S.D. dependent var 21.33057
S.E. of regression 15.49646 Akaike info criterion 8.359874
Sum squared resid 5523.228 Schwarz criterion 8.408960
Log likelihood -99.31849 Durbin-Watson stat 1.915607