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Audit Risk Model
Steps in the Audit Process
1. Client acceptance and retention
2. Planning and understanding the client
Understand client strategies and business processes (strategic
and process analyses)
Risk Assessments
Planning analytics
3. Plan tests of financial statement assertions
4. Perform tests of financial statement assertions
Tests of control operating effectiveness and substantive tests
5. Wrapping up the audit
6. Audit reporting
2
Why is Risk Management So Critical to Auditors?
Fundamental to Client Acceptance:
Auditors only accept clients that have effectively managed risks
unless willing to share in the costs associated with poor client
risk management
Fundamental to Resource Allocation:
Auditors perform more tests related to aspects of the client
presenting the highest risk exposure to the fair presentation of
the financial statements
客户接受的基础:审计师只接受有效管理风险的客户,除非愿意分担与客户风险
管理不良相关的成本
资源分配的基础:审计师执行更多与客户方面相关的测试,这些客户对财务报表
的公允列报具有最高风险
3
Audit Risk Model
AR = IR × CR × DR
AR: Audit Risk
IR: Inherent Risk
CR: Control Risk
DR: Detection Risk
RMM: Risk of Material Misstatement
RMM
Inherent Risk: the risk of a MATERIAL misstatement assuming
no internal controls.
Control Risk: the risk of the internal control failing to detect a
MATERIAL misstatement.
Detection Risk: the risk of the audit procedures failing to detect
a MATERIAL misstatement
Audit Risk Model
内在风险:假设没有内部控制,重大错报的风险。
控制风险:内部控制未能发现重大错报的风险。
发现风险:审计程序未能发现重大错报的风险
5
Audit Risk (AR)
Risk the auditor expresses an inappropriate opinion
The auditor determines what level of AR is acceptable for a
given client
Distribution of ownership
Business risk to audit firm
Client size
Litigation environment
AR = IR × CR × DR
RMM
审核员确定给定客户可接受的AR级别
所有权分配
审计公司的业务风险
客户规模
诉讼环境
6
What is Appropriate Audit Risk?
Due Professional Care:
Methods for Minimizing Audit Risk
There is a trade-off: Maximum such that opinion can be issued
without much risk that financial statements are materially
misstated.
Relationship between audit risk and the need for evidence is
inverse
Risk of Material Misstatement (RMM)
Not directly influenced by auditor
Assessed by the auditors
Risk that financial statements are materially misstated prior to
audit
AR = IR × CR × DR
RMM
不直接受审计师的影响
由审计员评估
在审计之前财务报表存在重大错报的风险
8
Inherent Risk (IR)
Susceptibility of an assertion to material misstatement
(individually or in aggregate)
Assumes no related internal controls
Important factors
Client’s business
Management’s integrity
Client competence
Rush to produce financial statements
Pressure to hit key metrics
Number and nature of related parties
Routineness of transactions
AR = IR × CR × DR
RMM
声明对重大错报的敏感性(单独或合计)
假设没有相关的内部控制
重要因素
客户的业务
管理层的诚信
客户能力
急于编制财务报表
达到关键指标的压力
关联方的数量和性质
交易的常规性
9
Control Risk (CR)
Risk that internal control won’t prevent or detect and correct a
material misstatement (individually or in aggregate)
Assessment based on understanding of client and testing of
internal control
Auditor may choose to assess control risk at maximum and
forgo testing for private clients
Important factors
Control environment (tone at the top)
Board of directors and audit committee
Internal audit
Effectiveness of accounting system
Strength of internal control system
AR = IR × CR × DR
RMM
内部控制不会阻止或发现和纠正重大错报的风险(单独或汇总)
基于对客户的理解和内部控制测试的评估
审计员可以选择最大限度地评估控制风险,并为私人客户进行放弃测试
重要因素
控制环境(顶部音调)
董事会和审计委员会
内部审计
会计制度的有效性
内部控制系统的优势
10
Detection Risk (DR)
Risk that auditor fails to detect a material misstatement
(individually or in aggregate)
Directly influenced by the auditor
Auditors reduce DR by increasing the quantity and quality of
their testing
Two primary components
Substantive analytical procedures
Tests of details
Auditors control AR through DR
AR = IR × CR × DR
RMM
实质性分析程序
测试细节
11
12
Auditors use this relationship during the planning phase to
determine the nature, extent, and timing of evidence to gather
for audit testing. Thus, auditors look at this relationship as
follows:
Evidence
__AR__ = DR
IR x CR
Amounts can be expressed in Relative Terms (H, M, L)
Inverse
Audit Risk Model
审计师在规划阶段使用这种关系来确定收集审计测试的证据的性质,范围和时间
。 因此,审计师将这种关系看作如下
13
Relationship between inherent risk and need for evidence is
________ .
Relationship between control risk and need for evidence is
________.
Interaction of Inherent and Control Risks: RMM
direct
direct
Components of the Traditional Risk Model
Ramifications of Detection Risk Assessments
Relationship to Need for Evidence is _________
Low Detection Risk (High IR x CR and Sufficiently Low AR):
Tests of the Account Balance and/or Transactions generated by
Business Process Necessary
High Detection Risk (Low IR x CR and Sufficiently High AR)
Test of Process Controls and Analytical Evidence Sufficient
inverse
Reduce (achieved) detection risk by
Business Risk Auditing:
The Ultimate Goal:
Achieved Audit Risk_____Acceptable Audit Risk
Increasing substantive audit procedures
Detection Risk is Lowest for Accounts Impacted by Processes
with High Residual Business Process Risk
Audit Risk Model
增加实质审计程序
对于具有高剩余业务流程风险的流程影响的帐户,检测风险最低
16
Applying the ARMPlanned
ARIRCRRMMAggregate testingDRExample
1LowHighHighAmount of testing
HIGH
HIGH
HIGH
HIGH
HIGH
HIGH
LOW
Low for control percejudt
17
Applying the ARMPlanned
ARIRCRRMMAggregate testingDRExample
2LowHighLowAmount of testing
MOD
HIGH
HIGH
LOW
MOD
MOD-HIGH
LOW-MOD
Applying the ARMPlanned
ARIRCRRMMAggregate testingDRExample
3HighLowHighAmount of testing
MOD
LOW
LOW
HIGH
MOD
LOW -MOD
MOD - HIGH
19
Sampling Risk vs. Non-Sampling Risk
Non-sampling Risk
Analyses of past alleged audit failures indicate that such non-
sampling risk factors … are among the most significant audit
risk factors and sources of auditor liability.
Montgomery’s Auditing, 10th Edition [1985]
*
07/16/96
*
##
抽样风险与非抽样风险对过去涉嫌审计失败的分析表明,此类非抽样风险因素....
..是最重要的审计风险因素和审计师责任来源。
Sampling vs. Non-Sampling Risk
Detection risk (DR) is a function of sampling risk (SR) and non-
sampling risk (NSR).
SR arises from the possibility that the auditor’s conclusion
would change if audit procedures were applied to the entire
population.
NSR arises from factors that cause the auditor to reach an
erroneous conclusion for any reason other than the size of the
sample (ISAs).
Judgment errors (e.g., biases)
*
07/16/96
*
##
检测风险(DR)是抽样风险(SR)和非抽样风险(NSR)的函数。
如果审计程序适用于整个人口,审计师的结论可能会发生变化,从而产生SR。
NSR源于导致审核员因样本量(ISA)以外的任何原因而得出错误结论的因素
。
判断错误(例如,偏见)
Sources of Non-sampling Risk
Auditors’ belief formation and revision may be faulty, resulting
in inaccurate assessment(s) of any component of the audit risk
model.
Misinterpretation or misapplication of accounting principles and
auditing standards.
Failure to obtain an understanding of the entity and its
environment sufficient for assessing the components of audit
risk.
Failure to obtain sufficient, appropriate audit evidence when
responding to preliminary assessments初步评估 of such
components.
*
07/16/96
*
##
审计师的信念形成和修订可能有误,导致审计风险模型的任何组成部分的评估不
准确。
会计原则和审计标准的误解或误用。
未能充分了解实体及其环境,足以评估审计风险的组成部分。
在回应对这些组成部分的初步评估时未能获得充分,适当的审计证据。
Guidance on Non-sampling Risk
U.S. authoritative guidance does not explicitly represent it in
the ARM, instead suggests that risk can be reduced to a
negligible level 降低到可忽略的风险through appropriate planning,
supervision and quality control mechanisms.
NSR could be a source of detection risk that produces distorted
assessments of RMM and DR.
*
07/16/96
*
##
美国权威指南没有在ARM中明确表示,而是建议通过适当的规划,监督和质量
控制机制将风险降低到可以忽略的程度。
NSR可能是检测风险的来源,导致对RMM和DR的扭曲评估。
(1) Recursive Risk Assessment: SSA auditors manage NSR by
viewing the entire audit as a recursive process of evidence-
driven, belief-based assessment.
That is, auditors should continually update their risk
assessments as they gather evidence.
(2) Self-criticism: Auditors should be skeptical of their own
judgment and decision making ability and consider the potential
fallibility of their judgments.
Reducing NSR
*
07/16/96
*
##
(1)递归风险评估:SSA审核员通过将整个审核视为以证据为基础,基于信念
的评估的递归过程来管理NSR。
也就是说,审核员在收集证据时应不断更新风险评估。
(2)自我批评:审计师应该对自己的判断和决策能力持怀疑态度,并考虑他们
判断的潜在可能性。
(3) Non-Financial KPI’s: Auditors should consider KPI’s that
the client uses to run its business but not typically used in
financial reporting.
Google example: cost per click, click through rates, search
usage, etc.
These KPI’s help the auditor form expectations for financial
statement assertions AND are less prone to management
manipulation.
Divergence of these KPI’s with F/S performance is highly
associated with fraud
(Brazel et al.2006)
(3)非财务关键绩效指标:审计师应考虑客户用于经营业务的关键绩效指标,
但通常不用于财务报告。
Google示例:每次点击费用,点击率,搜索使用情况等。
这些KPI有助于审计师形成对财务报表断言的期望,并且不太容易受到管理层的
操纵。
这些KPI与F / S表现的分歧与欺诈密切相关
26
Team OakFresh Pond BrewPub.xlsm
Project-IDSEMESTER:Spring 2019PROJECT TITLE:Fresh
Pond BrewPubPROJECT LOCATION:CambridgeSTUDENT
NAME:Team OakADVISOR:Dr. Vladimir ZlatevDATE OF
SUBMISSION:Wednesday, April 24, 2019
&8&K002060BU MET AD715 OL:
Quantitative and Qualitative Decision-Making
&8&K002060Business Simulation:
Strategies and Decision Support in Organizations
&8&K002060Copyright 2012 by Dr. Vladimir Zlatev
All Rights Reserved
&8&K002060&F &8&K002060&A &8&K002060&P
Business Simulation: Strategies and Decision Support in
Organizations
Title-PageSEMESTER:Spring 2019PROJECT TITLE:Fresh
Pond BrewPubLOCATION:CambridgeSTUDENT NAME:Team
OakADVISOR:Dr. Vladimir ZlatevDATE OF
SUBMISSION:4/24/19Copyright:Disclaimer:
&"Geneva,Bold"&8&K3F33D9BU MET AD715 OL:
Quantitative and Qualitative
Decision-Making &"Geneva,Bold"&8&K3F33D9
Strategies and Decision Support in Organizations
&"Geneva,Bold"&8&K3F33D9Coppyright 2012 - 2014
By Dr. Vladimir Zlatev
All Rights Reserved
&"Geneva,Bold"&8&K002060&F
© 2012 -2014 Dr. Vladimir Zlatev, All rights reserved.
This program simulation package is designed to illustrate
different managerial decision making concepts and to offer
hands-on experience to the students who are taking the graduate
course AD 715 Quantitative and Qualitative Decision-Making at
Boston University, Metropolitan College. The program
simulation package is property of and is provided by Dr.
Vladimir Zlatev. Permission to use, copy and distribute this
simulation without fee is hereby granted, provided that the
above copyright notice appear in all copies and that both the
copyright and this notice appear in supporting documentation,
and that the name Dr. Vladimir Zlatev not be used in
advertising or publicity pertaining to distribution of this
documentation without specific, written permission..
HelpHelp MenuA. Navigation within the business simulationE.
Page '36-Mo-Fin-Pr'H. Page 'Mktg-Mgt'testI. Page 'Inn-Mgt'F.
Page 'Performance'B. Introduction to the business simulationJ.
Page 'Oper-Mgt'Tutorial to the Business Simulation 'Strategies
and Decision Support in Organizations'G. Page 'D-Analysis'C.
Page 'Project-ID'K. Page 'Fin-Mgt'Yellow cells indicate fields
you should edit; others are not editable.L. Page 'Org-Mgt'D.
Page 'Project-Start'A. Navigation within the business
simulation1.Simulation software: installation
requirements2.Layouts 3.Tab ‘Sim-Navigator’4.Task
List5.Force Calculation6.Submit Results7.Choose cycle to
calculate8.Export9.Go Back to ‘Sim-Navigator’10.Indicator:
Current Cycle11.HelpD. Page 'Project-Start'1.Critical Success
Factors (CSF)2.Key Performance Indicators (KPI)E. Page '36-
Mo-Fin-Pr'1.Sales Projection2.Prices and Variable Costs per
product3.Annual fixed costs4.12 month Proforma5.Financial
summary: per FY and overallF. Page 'Performance'1.Key
Success Indicators2.Key Performance Indicators3.Efficiency
Ratios4.Trend AnalysisG. Page 'D-Analysis'1.Break-Even
Analysis2.What-if Analysis3.Sensitivity Analysis*LINK TO
TUTORIAL HERE*4.Optimization Analysis*LINK TO
TUTORIAL HERE*5.Risk AnalysisH. Page 'Mktg-
Mgt'1.Marketing Costs2.Product Description3.Targeted Market
Size4.Sales ProjectionsI. Page 'Inn-Mgt'1.Product Name &
DescriptionJ. Page 'Oper-Mgt'1.Forecast for the nest three
years2.Targeted Market Size3.Sales ProjectionK. Page 'Fin-
Mgt'1.Miscellaneous Factors2.DebtL. Page 'Org-
Mgt'1.Employess2.Employee Compensation
http://probarserv.com/quantities-for-beer-and-wine-bar.html)
Sim-Navigatorcurrent cycle0Permission for next
CycleNoCurrent Decision CycleConformation Last cycle endC =
0YesCurrent Input Parameters tableWhich Section in
changetable in process is N/AN/ACycle In
calculation0Permision to create printoutsNoPasswordsVZ-
StartVZ-MCSChosen underlying cycle0comments:Inputs from
MS Excel to be used for MS Project(we will provide a
demo)OPTIONAL for studentsCheck
&8&K002060BU MET AD715 OL:
Quantitative and Qualitative Decision-Making
&8&K002060Business Simulation:
Strategies and Decision Support in Organizations
&8&K002060Copyright 2012 by Dr. Vladimir Zlatev
All Rights Reserved
&8&K002060&F &8&K002060&A &8&K002060&P
Sim-Navigator
?
test
YES
NO
A. Navigation within the business simulation
B. Introduction to the business simulation
C. Page 'Project-ID'
D. Page 'Project-Start'
E. Page 'Mktg-Mgt'
F. Page 'Inn-Mgt'
G. Page 'Oper-Mgt'
H. Page 'Fin-Mgt'
I. Page 'Org-Mgt'
J. Page '36-Mo-Fin-Pr'
K. Page 'Performance'
L. Page 'D-Analysis'
M. Page 'Impl-Plan'
N. Page 'Sim-Report'
O. Page 'Printout Reports'
Project-Start1OVERALL BUSINESS PARAMETERS OF THE
PROJECT (BUSINESS UNIT: next 36 Months of
Operations)1.1Critical Success FactorsFY-0FY-1FY-2FY-
3FY1+FY2+FY3CSF 1:Introducing an individually controlled
brand (utilization in %)[%]85.08%90.57%98.80%91.48%CSF
2:Retention of critical technology personnel[number]112CSF
3:Retention of critical marketing personnel[number]1121.2Key
Performance IndicatorsFY-0FY-1FY-2FY-3FY1+FY2+FY3KPI
1:Actual size of the local
market[units]15,000,000103.00%106.00%110.00%KPI
2:Number of customers- existing business[customers]90,000KPI
3:Average consumption per existing customer[units]2.00KPI
4:Size of the penetrated market - without new
project[%]105.00%110.00%115.00%*[units]180,000189,000198
,000207,000594,000KPI 5:Projected increase of the penetrated
market - with new project[%]220%KPI 6:Projected structure of
the annual sales, new penetr.
market[%]31.00%33.00%36.00%100.00%Projected sales, new
brand[units]405,108431,244470,4481,306,800KPI 7:Projected
consumption in the existing business, new brand
only[%]31.0%33.0%34.0%32.74%**[units]125,583142,311159,
952427,846Projected beer consumption (new brand % of
all)[%]66%72%77%Wholesale distribution (new
brand)[%]69.00%67.00%66.00%67.26%***[units]279,525288,9
33310,496878,954KPI 8:Capacity of the new technology (max
units/year)[units]476,160476,160476,160476,1602FIXED-
COST2.0Initial InvestmentEquipment$ 150,000Total$
150,0002.1EmployeesSalary increasePositionBudgetNumberFY-
2FY-3Office Assistants$ 25,00011.111.2Salesmen $
67,5001.51.111.2Executive Salaries $
32,5000.51.111.2Miscellaneous (Consultants)$
5,0001.111.2FY-1FY-2FY-
3Total$130,000$144,300$173,1602.2Range of compensations
for critical workersPositionImportanceMinBaseMarket
ResearchMaxSalesmenCritical$26,000$30,000$28,000$32,000S
alesmen$23,000$24,000$25,000$27,000WorkerCritical$25,000$
30,000$29,000$32,000Worker$15,000$20,000$20,000$22,0002.
3Utilities, Supplies and othersPaymentPayment increaseFY-
1FY-2FY-3Leasing of cars, computers, etc$
8,0001.111.2Office Supply$ 4,0001.111.2Heat, Light, Phone$
7,0001.111.2Insurance$ 7,0001.111.2Depreciation$
7,5001.90.9FY-1FY-2FY-
3Total$33,500$43,110$47,4572.4Marketing
costsPaymentPayment increaseFY-1FY-2FY-3Local
Advertising$ 35,0001.111.2Trade Shows$
3,0001.111.2Total$38,000$42,180$50,6162.5RentPayment
increasePaymentSpace (ft^2)FY-2FY-3Office$
5,0002001.111.2WarehouseFY-1FY-2FY-
3Total$5,000$5,550$6,6602.6DebtLoanAmountInterest
ratelength (months)payments/yearDate startBank of
America$40,00010.0%3612FY-1 JanFY-1FY-2FY-3Total
DebtTotal$15,391$15,391$15,391$40,0002.7DepreciationFY-
1FY-2FY-3MACRS (15 yr schedule)5.00%9.50%8.55%Tax
Shelter$2,625$4,987.50$4,488.752.8Financial Market
IndicatorsPercentageExpected Return on Investment5.0%Risk-
Free Interest rate1.0%3TAXES & FEES3.1TaxesTaxes
typePercentageProfit35.00%3.2FeesTypeAmmountlicense to sell
alcoholTotal4PRODUCT DESCRIPTION4.1. Product Name &
Description Variable CostsMaterial LaborOthersPriceUnitsCut
off pointWeightWeight (full)HeightDiameterProduct
IDDistributionName(per unit)(per unit)(per unit)(per
unit)(Pints)(lb)(lb)(inches)(inches)BR01-
01[retail]Pilsner0.560.300.30$4.0010.81.051.300NOTES:BR01-
02[retail]Bavarian Lager0.500.300.30$4.0010.81.051.300(i)one
pint = 16 oz = 473.1765 mlBR01-03[retail]Light
Wheat0.500.300.30$3.5010.81.051.300(ii)one keg = 124
pintsBR01-04[retail]Red
Wheat0.500.300.30$3.5010.81.051.300(iii)one barrel = 31
gallonsBR01-05[retail]Pale
Ale0.500.300.30$3.5010.81.051.300BR01-06[retail]Bock
Dark0.500.300.30$3.5010.81.051.300BR01-
07[wholesale]Pilsner0.560.240.26$1.251240.8130.8160.523,316
BR01-08[wholesale]Bavarian
Lager0.560.240.26$1.281240.8130.8160.523.316BR01-
09[retail]Special Offer0.520.290.29$1.25111.051.300(iv)half
barrel = one keg = 15.5 gallons5TARGETED MARKET SIZE
(PER PRODUCTS AND FYs)FY-1FY-2FY-
3Retail100%125,583100%142,311100%159,952Wholesale100%
279,525100%288,933100%310,496Product IDDistributionBR01-
01[retail]23%28,884.2024%34,154.5223%36,789.03BR01-
02[retail]25%31,395.8723%32,731.4222%35,189.51BR01-
03[retail]14%17,581.6914%19,923.4715%23,992.85BR01-
04[retail]12%15,070.0213%18,500.3713%20,793.80BR01-
05[retail]12%15,070.0213%18,500.3713%20,793.80BR01-
06[retail]14%17,581.6913%18,500.3714%22,393.32BR01-
07[wholesale]45%125,786.0348%138,688.0750%155,247.84BR
01-
08[wholesale]55%153,738.4952%150,245.4150%155,247.84BR
01-09[retail]0%00%00%06SALES PROJECTIONS (BUSINESS
UNIT: next 36 Months of Operations)Keg [units]124Cutoff
Point80%Year/MonthBR01-01BR01-02BR01-03BR01-04BR01-
05BR01-06BR01-07BR01-08BR01-
09[retail][retail][retail][retail][retail][retail][wholesale][wholes
ale][retail]FY-1Percent Monthly Demand by
YearJan7.00%6.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%Feb7.
00%6.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%Mar7.00%6.00
%6.00%6.00%6.00%6.00%6.00%6.00%Apr7.00%7.00%7.00%7.
00%7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%May8.00%8.00%8.00%8.00%8.00
%8.00%8.00%8.00%Jun10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%10
.00%10.00%10.00%Jul10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%10.
00%10.00%10.00%Aug10.00%11.00%12.00%12.00%12.00%12.
00%12.00%12.00%Sep10.00%11.00%12.00%12.00%12.00%12.
00%12.00%12.00%Oct10.00%11.00%11.00%11.00%11.00%11.0
0%11.00%11.00%Nov7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00
%7.00%Dec7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%6.00%T
ot100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%9
9.00%0.00%Demanded Quantity per
MonthJan2,0221,8848797547548796,2897,6870Feb2,0221,8848
797547548796,2897,6870Mar2,0221,8841,0559049041,0557,54
79,2240Apr2,0222,1981,2311,0551,0551,2318,80510,7620May2
,3112,5121,4071,2061,2061,40710,06312,2990Jun2,8883,1401,7
581,5071,5071,75812,57915,3740Jul2,8883,1401,7581,5071,507
1,75812,57915,3740Aug2,8883,4542,1101,8081,8082,11015,094
18,4490Sep2,8883,4542,1101,8081,8082,11015,09418,4490Oct2
,8883,4541,9341,6581,6581,93413,83616,9110Nov2,0222,1981,
2311,0551,0551,2318,80510,7620Dec2,0222,1981,2311,0551,05
51,2318,8059,2240Tot28,88431,39617,58215,07015,07017,5821
25,786153,7380[kegs]101124TotalNumber of Tanks to Produce
and
ServeJan13.01.51.40.00.00.00.04.55.60.0Feb13.01.51.40.00.00.
00.04.55.60.0Mar18.01.51.51.00.00.01.05.57.50.0Apr22.01.51.7
1.01.01.01.06.58.30.0May26.01.92.01.01.01.01.08.110.00.0Jun3
1.02.22.51.01.01.01.09.812.50.0Jul31.02.22.51.01.01.01.09.812.
50.0Aug35.02.22.71.01.01.01.011.814.30.0Sep35.02.22.71.01.0
1.01.011.814.30.0Oct33.02.22.71.01.01.01.010.813.30.0Nov22.
01.51.71.01.01.01.06.58.30.0Dec21.01.51.71.01.01.01.06.57.30.
0Total
Demand[units]28,88431,39617,58215,07015,07017,582125,7861
53,738- 0Total
Supply[units]27,24630,50712,40011,16011,16012,400119,07414
8,0530Excess
Demand[units]1,6398895,1823,9103,9105,1826,7125,6850FY-
2Percent Monthly Demand by
YearJan7.00%6.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%Feb7.
00%6.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%Mar7.00%6.00
%6.00%6.00%6.00%6.00%6.00%6.00%Apr7.00%7.00%7.00%7.
00%7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%May8.00%8.00%8.00%8.00%8.00
%8.00%8.00%8.00%Jun10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%10
.00%10.00%10.00%Jul10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%10.
00%10.00%10.00%Aug10.00%11.00%12.00%12.00%12.00%12.
00%12.00%12.00%Sep10.00%11.00%12.00%12.00%12.00%12.
00%12.00%12.00%Oct10.00%11.00%11.00%11.00%11.00%11.0
0%11.00%11.00%Nov7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00
%7.00%Dec7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%T
ot100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%1
00.00%0.00%Demanded Quantity per
MonthJan2,3911,9649969259259256,9347,5120Feb2,3911,9649
969259259256,9347,5120Mar2,3911,9641,1951,1101,1101,1108
,3219,0150Apr2,3912,2911,3951,2951,2951,2959,70810,5170M
ay2,7322,6191,5941,4801,4801,48011,09512,0200Jun3,4153,27
31,9921,8501,8501,85013,86915,0250Jul3,4153,2731,9921,8501
,8501,85013,86915,0250Aug3,4153,6002,3912,2202,2202,22016
,64318,0290Sep3,4153,6002,3912,2202,2202,22016,64318,0290
Oct3,4153,6002,1922,0352,0352,03515,25616,5270Nov2,3912,2
911,3951,2951,2951,2959,70810,5170Dec2,3912,2911,3951,295
1,2951,2959,70810,5170Tot34,15532,73119,92318,50018,50018
,500138,688150,2450[kegs]112121TotalNumber of Tanks to
Produce and
ServeJan15.01.81.51.00.00.00.05.25.50.0Feb15.01.81.51.00.00.
00.05.25.50.0Mar21.01.81.61.01.01.01.06.27.40.0Apr23.01.81.8
1.01.01.01.07.28.20.0May27.02.22.11.01.01.01.08.89.90.0Jun32
.02.82.51.01.01.01.011.211.50.0Jul32.02.82.51.01.01.01.011.21
1.50.0Aug38.02.72.82.01.01.01.013.314.20.0Sep38.02.72.82.01.
01.01.013.314.20.0Oct35.02.72.91.01.01.01.012.313.10.0Nov23
.01.81.81.01.01.01.07.28.20.0Dec23.01.81.81.01.01.01.07.28.20
.0Total
Demand[units]34,15532,73119,92318,50018,50018,500138,6881
50,245- 0Total
Supply[units]32,99631,68817,36012,40012,40012,400134,40414
5,6320Excess
Demand[units]1,1591,0432,5636,1006,1006,1004,2844,6130FY-
3Percent Monthly Demand by
YearJan7.00%6.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%Feb7.
00%6.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%Mar7.00%6.00
%6.00%6.00%6.00%6.00%6.00%6.00%Apr7.00%7.00%7.00%7.
00%7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%May8.00%8.00%8.00%8.00%8.00
%8.00%8.00%8.00%Jun10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%10
.00%10.00%10.00%Jul10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%10.
00%10.00%10.00%Aug10.00%11.00%12.00%12.00%12.00%12.
00%12.00%12.00%Sep10.00%11.00%12.00%12.00%12.00%12.
00%12.00%12.00%Oct10.00%11.00%11.00%11.00%11.00%11.0
0%11.00%11.00%Nov7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00
%7.00%Dec7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%T
ot100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%1
00.00%0.00%Demanded Quantity per
MonthJan2,5752,1111,2001,0401,0401,1207,7627,7620Feb2,575
2,1111,2001,0401,0401,1207,7627,7620Mar2,5752,1111,4401,2
481,2481,3449,3159,3150Apr2,5752,4631,6791,4561,4561,5681
0,86710,8670May2,9432,8151,9191,6641,6641,79112,42012,42
00Jun3,6793,5192,3992,0792,0792,23915,52515,5250Jul3,6793,
5192,3992,0792,0792,23915,52515,5250Aug3,6793,8712,8792,4
952,4952,68718,63018,6300Sep3,6793,8712,8792,4952,4952,68
718,63018,6300Oct3,6793,8712,6392,2872,2872,46317,07717,0
770Nov2,5752,4631,6791,4561,4561,56810,86710,8670Dec2,57
52,4631,6791,4561,4561,56810,86710,8670Tot36,78935,19023,
99320,79420,79422,393155,248155,2480[kegs]125125TotalNu
mber of Tanks to Produce and
ServeJan20.02.01.71.01.01.01.06.06.30.0Feb20.02.01.71.01.01.
01.06.06.30.0Mar22.01.91.71.01.01.01.07.17.30.0Apr25.02.11.8
1.01.01.01.08.98.20.0May28.02.32.21.01.01.01.09.79.80.0Jun36
.02.92.82.01.01.02.012.112.20.0Jul36.02.92.82.01.01.02.012.11
2.20.0Aug44.03.03.12.02.02.02.015.014.90.0Sep44.03.03.12.02.
02.02.015.014.90.0Oct41.02.83.12.02.02.02.013.213.90.0Nov25
.02.11.81.01.01.01.08.98.20.0Dec25.02.11.81.01.01.01.08.98.20
.0Total
Demand[units]36,78935,19023,99320,79420,79422,393155,2481
55,248- 0Total
Supply[units]36,05434,37721,08018,60018,60021,080152,42615
1,6230Excess
Demand[units]7358132,9132,1942,1941,3132,8223,6250BR01-
01BR01-02BR01-03BR01-04BR01-05BR01-06BR01-07BR01-
08BR01-
09[retail][retail][retail][retail][retail][retail][wholesale][wholes
ale][retail]FY-1Jan1,8101,70800005,6306,9720FY-
1Feb1,8101,70800005,6306,97287FY-
1Mar1,8341,8841,055001,0556,8469,224422FY-
1Apr1,8532,1031,2311,0551,0551,2318,06710,297389FY-
1May2,3112,5121,2401,2061,2061,24010,06312,299164FY-
1Jun2,7793,1401,2401,2401,2401,24012,10115,37487FY-
1Jul2,7793,1401,2401,2401,2401,24012,10115,37487FY-
1Aug2,7883,3241,2401,2401,2401,24014,57217,7560FY-
1Sep2,7883,3241,2401,2401,2401,24014,57217,7560FY-
1Oct2,7843,3651,2401,2401,2401,24013,33616,4750FY-
1Nov1,8532,1031,2311,0551,0551,2318,06710,297389FY-
1Dec1,8532,1471,2311,0551,0551,2318,0679,013389FY-
2Jan2,2251,7999960006,4556,881244FY-
2Feb2,2251,7999960006,4556,881244FY-
2Mar2,2141,9641,1951,1101,1101,1107,7069,015616FY-
2Apr2,2052,2181,2401,2401,2401,2408,95510,1820FY-
2May2,6952,6191,2401,2401,2401,24010,94512,020242FY-
2Jun3,4153,1051,2401,2401,2401,24013,86914,25576FY-
2Jul3,4153,1051,2401,2401,2401,24013,86914,25576FY-
2Aug3,3783,5092,3911,2401,2401,24016,46217,57189FY-
2Sep3,3783,5092,3911,2401,2401,24016,46217,57189FY-
2Oct3,4023,5491,2401,2401,2401,24015,19816,2910FY-
2Nov2,2052,2181,2401,2401,2401,2408,95510,1820FY-
2Dec2,2052,2181,2401,2401,2401,2408,95510,1820FY-
3Jan2,4712,1111,2001,0401,0401,1207,4497,762608FY-
3Feb2,4712,1111,2001,0401,0401,1207,4497,762608FY-
3Mar2,4172,0621,2401,2401,2401,2408,7439,0980FY-
3Apr2,5752,2911,2401,2401,2401,24010,86710,109197FY-
3May2,8512,7501,2401,2401,2401,24012,02912,1300FY-
3Jun3,5633,4372,3991,2401,2402,23915,03715,163321FY-
3Jul3,5633,4372,3991,2401,2402,23915,03715,163321FY-
3Aug3,6793,8402,4802,4802,4802,48018,63018,48011FY-
3Sep3,6793,8402,4802,4802,4802,48018,63018,48011FY-
3Oct3,5173,8712,4802,2872,2872,46316,32317,077534FY-
3Nov2,5752,2911,2401,2401,2401,24010,86710,109197FY-
3Dec2,5752,2911,2401,2401,2401,24010,86710,1091977PROD
UCTION CAPACITY (next 36 Months of
Operations)7.1Production Capacity: DefinitionsCapacity per
tank[units]1240Capacity per tank[kegs]10Capacity per keg
[units]1247.2Maximum Capacity:CAPACITY (per
pints)TanksGallonsPintsCapacityMonthFY[1 week][ 4 week][48
week]11551,2401,2404,96059,52021551,2401,2404,96059,5203
1551,2401,2404,96059,52041551,2401,2404,96059,52051551,24
01,2404,96059,52061551,2401,2404,96059,52071551,2401,2404
,96059,52081551,2401,2404,96059,520Total1240992099203968
0476160
&8&K002060BU MET AD715 OL: Quantitative and Qualitative
Decision-Making
2014 Dr. Vladimir Zlatev &8&K002060Business Simulation:
Strategies and Decision Support in Organizations
&8&K002060Copyright 2014 by Dr. Vladimir Zlatev
All Rights Reserved
&8&K002060&F &8&K002060&A &8&K002060&P
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36-Mo-Fin-PrCurrent Cycle 0Cycle in Calculation 01Sales
ProjectionsSales Projections: Products sold per month (for FY-
1, FY-2, and FY-
3)ProductsJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecOverallB
R01-01,FY-
11,8101,8101,8341,8532,3112,7792,7792,7882,7882,7841,8531,
85327,241FY-1FY-
22,2252,2252,2142,2052,6953,4153,4153,3783,3783,4022,2052,
20532,966FY-2FY-
32,4712,4712,4172,5752,8513,5633,5633,6793,6793,5172,5752,
57535,937FY-3BR01-02,FY-
11,7081,7081,8842,1032,5123,1403,1403,3243,3243,3652,1032,
14730,457FY-1FY-
21,7991,7991,9642,2182,6193,1053,1053,5093,5093,5492,2182,
21831,612FY-2FY-
32,1112,1112,0622,2912,7503,4373,4373,8403,8403,8712,2912,
29134,333FY-3BR01-03,FY-
1001,0551,2311,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2311,23112,1
87FY-1FY-
29969961,1951,2401,2401,2401,2402,3912,3911,2401,2401,240
16,649FY-2FY-
31,2001,2001,2401,2401,2402,3992,3992,4802,4802,4801,2401,
24020,838FY-3BR01-04,FY-
10001,0551,2061,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,0551,05510,570FY
-1FY-
2001,1101,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,24012,2
70FY-2FY-
31,0401,0401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2402,4802,4802,2871,2401,
24018,007FY-3BR01-05,FY-
10001,0551,2061,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,0551,05510,570FY
-1FY-
2001,1101,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,24012,2
70FY-2FY-
31,0401,0401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2402,4802,4802,2871,2401,
24018,007FY-3BR01-06,FY-
1001,0551,2311,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2311,23112,1
87FY-1FY-
2001,1101,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,24012,2
70FY-2FY-
31,1201,1201,2401,2401,2402,2392,2392,4802,4802,4631,2401,
24020,341FY-3BR01-07,FY-
15,6305,6306,8468,06710,06312,10112,10114,57214,57213,336
8,0678,067119,053FY-1FY-
26,4556,4557,7068,95510,94513,86913,86916,46216,46215,198
8,9558,955134,283FY-2FY-
37,4497,4498,74310,86712,02915,03715,03718,63018,63016,32
310,86710,867151,928FY-3BR01-08,FY-
16,9726,9729,22410,29712,29915,37415,37417,75617,75616,47
510,2979,013147,809FY-1FY-
26,8816,8819,01510,18212,02014,25514,25517,57117,57116,29
110,18210,182145,284FY-2FY-
37,7627,7629,09810,10912,13015,16315,16318,48018,48017,07
710,10910,109151,443FY-3BR01-09,FY-
108742238916487870003893892,013FY-1FY-
22442446160242767689890001,675FY-2FY-
36086080197032132111115341971973,007FY-3Total
ProductsFY-
116,12016,20722,32027,28032,24038,44038,44043,40043,40040
,92027,28026,040372,087FY-1per MonthsFY-
218,60018,60026,04028,52033,48039,68039,68047,12047,12043
,40028,52028,520399,280FY-2FY-
324,80024,80027,28031,00034,72044,64044,64054,56054,56050
,84031,00031,000453,840FY-31,225,207Overall2Prices and
Variable Costs per productVariable Costs per Unit Product
IDDistributionNameMaterialsLaborOthersOverallPricesBR01-
01,[retail]Pilsner0.560.300.30$1.16$4.00BR01-
02,[retail]Bavarian Lager0.500.300.30$1.10$4.00BR01-
03,[retail]Light Wheat0.500.300.30$1.10$3.50BR01-
04,[retail]Red Wheat0.500.300.30$1.10$3.50BR01-
05,[retail]Pale Ale0.500.300.30$1.10$3.50BR01-06,[retail]Bock
Dark0.500.300.30$1.10$3.50BR01-
07,[wholesale]Pilsner0.560.240.26$1.06$1.25BR01-
08,[wholesale]Bavarian Lager0.560.240.26$1.06$1.28BR01-
09,[retail]Special Offer0.520.290.29$1.10$1.253Annual Fixed
Costs FY-1FY-2FY-3Employees
salaries130000144300173160Utilities&Other335004311047457
Marketing Costs380004218050616Rent500055506660Loans
Payments153911539115391Total Fixed Costs
$221,891$250,531$293,284Total Current Assets$40,000Private
Investment$150,000412 Month Proforma: FY-1YearFY-1FY-
1FY-1FY-1FY-1FY-1FY-1FY-1FY-1FY-1FY-1FY-1 FY-
1MonthJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecTotalBR01-
01,Price per unit$4.00Variable cost $1.16Sales
Volume1,8101,8101,8341,8532,3112,7792,7792,7882,7882,7841
,8531,85327241Revenue$7,240$7,240$7,336$7,410$9,243$11,1
15$11,115$11,154$11,154$11,136$7,410$7,410$108,962Expens
es$2,100$2,100$2,127$2,149$2,680$3,223$3,223$3,235$3,235$
3,229$2,149$2,149$31,599Contribution$5,140$5,140$5,209$5,2
61$6,562$7,892$7,892$7,919$7,919$7,906$5,261$5,261$77,363
BR01-02,Price per unit$4.00Variable cost $1.10Sales
Volume1,7081,7081,8842,1032,5123,1403,1403,3243,3243,3652
,1032,14730457Revenue$6,834$6,834$7,535$8,411$10,047$12,
558$12,558$13,296$13,296$13,458$8,411$8,589$121,827Expen
ses$1,982$1,982$2,072$2,313$2,763$3,454$3,454$3,656$3,656
$3,701$2,313$2,362$33,708Contribution$4,852$4,852$5,463$6,
098$7,284$9,105$9,105$9,639$9,639$9,757$6,098$6,227$88,12
0BR01-03,Price per unit$3.50Variable cost $1.10Sales
Volume001,0551,2311,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2311,23
112187Revenue$0$0$3,692$4,308$4,340$4,340$4,340$4,340$4,
340$4,340$4,308$4,308$42,655Expenses$0$0$1,160$1,354$1,3
64$1,364$1,364$1,364$1,364$1,364$1,354$1,354$13,406Contri
bution$0$0$2,532$2,954$2,976$2,976$2,976$2,976$2,976$2,97
6$2,954$2,954$29,249BR01-04,Price per unit$3.50Variable
cost $1.10Sales
Volume0001,0551,2061,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,0551,05510
570Revenue$0$0$0$3,692$4,220$4,340$4,340$4,340$4,340$4,3
40$3,692$3,692$36,996Expenses$0$0$0$1,160$1,326$1,364$1,
364$1,364$1,364$1,364$1,160$1,160$11,627Contribution$0$0$
0$2,532$2,893$2,976$2,976$2,976$2,976$2,976$2,532$2,532$2
5,369BR01-05,Price per unit$3.50Variable cost $1.10Sales
Volume0001,0551,2061,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,0551,05510
570Revenue$0$0$0$3,692$4,220$4,340$4,340$4,340$4,340$4,3
40$3,692$3,692$36,996Expenses$0$0$0$1,160$1,326$1,364$1,
364$1,364$1,364$1,364$1,160$1,160$11,627Contribution$0$0$
0$2,532$2,893$2,976$2,976$2,976$2,976$2,976$2,532$2,532$2
5,369BR01-06,Price per unit$3.50Variable cost $1.10Sales
Volume001,0551,2311,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2311,23
112187Revenue$0$0$3,692$4,308$4,340$4,340$4,340$4,340$4,
340$4,340$4,308$4,308$42,655Expenses$0$0$1,160$1,354$1,3
64$1,364$1,364$1,364$1,364$1,364$1,354$1,354$13,406Contri
bution$0$0$2,532$2,954$2,976$2,976$2,976$2,976$2,976$2,97
6$2,954$2,954$29,249BR01-07,Price per unit$1.25Variable
cost $1.06Sales
Volume5,6305,6306,8468,06710,06312,10112,10114,57214,572
13,3368,0678,067119053Revenue$7,038$7,038$8,557$10,084$1
2,579$15,127$15,127$18,215$18,215$16,670$10,084$10,084$1
48,816Expenses$6,531$6,531$7,257$8,552$10,667$12,827$12,8
27$15,446$15,446$14,136$8,552$8,552$127,322Contribution$5
07$507$1,301$1,533$1,912$2,299$2,299$2,769$2,769$2,534$1,
533$1,533$21,494BR01-08,Price per unit$1.28Variable cost
$1.06Sales
Volume6,9726,9729,22410,29712,29915,37415,37417,75617,75
616,47510,2979,013147809Revenue$8,924$8,924$11,807$13,18
0$15,743$19,679$19,679$22,728$22,728$21,089$13,180$11,53
6$189,195Expenses$8,087$8,087$9,778$10,915$13,037$16,296
$16,296$18,821$18,821$17,464$10,915$9,553$158,072Contrib
ution$837$837$2,029$2,265$2,706$3,382$3,382$3,906$3,906$
3,625$2,265$1,983$31,124BR01-09,Price per unit$1.25Variable
cost $1.10Sales
Volume08742238916487870003893892013Revenue$0$108$528
$486$206$108$108$0$0$0$486$486$2,516Expenses$0$100$46
3$427$180$95$95$0$0$0$427$427$2,214Contribution$0$8$64$
59$25$13$13$0$0$0$59$59$302Total
Revenue$30,035$30,143$43,148$55,571$64,936$75,947$75,947
$82,752$82,752$79,713$55,571$54,105$730,619Total
Expenses$18,699$18,800$24,018$29,384$34,708$41,352$41,35
2$46,614$46,614$43,987$29,384$28,071$402,981Total
Contribution$11,336$11,343$19,130$26,188$30,228$34,595$34
,595$36,137$36,137$35,726$26,188$26,034$327,638Fixed
Costs FY-1 (Total)Employees
salaries$10,833$10,833$10,833$10,833$10,833$10,833$10,833
$10,833$10,833$10,833$10,833$10,833$130,000Utilities&Othe
r$2,791.67$2,792$2,792$2,792$2,792$2,792$2,792$2,792$2,79
2$2,792$2,792$2,792$33,500Marketing
Costs$3,166.67$3,167$3,167$3,167$3,167$3,167$3,167$3,167$
3,167$3,167$3,167$3,167$38,000Rent$416.67$417$417$417$4
17$417$417$417$417$417$417$417$5,000Loan
Payments$1,283$1,283$1,283$1,283$1,283$1,283$1,283$1,283
$1,283$1,283$1,283$1,283$15,391Total Fixed
Costs$19,116$19,116$19,116$19,116$19,116$19,116$19,116$1
9,116$19,116$19,116$19,116$19,116$229,391Depreciation$625
$625$625$625$625$625$625$625$625$625$625$625$7,500Prof
it (Before
Taxes)($7,780)($7,773)$14$7,072$11,112$15,479$15,479$17,0
21$17,021$16,610$7,072$6,918$98,246Profit
taxes0.35Cumulative
Profit($7,780)($15,553)($15,539)($8,467)$2,645$18,124$33,60
3$50,625$67,646$84,256$91,328$98,246Ending Cash
Balance($86,140)Profit (After
Taxes)($7,780)($7,773)$14$7,072$10,186$10,062$10,062$11,0
64$11,064$10,797$4,597$4,497$63,860YearFY-1FY-1FY-1FY-
1FY-1FY-1FY-1FY-1FY-1FY-1FY-1FY-1FY-
1MonthJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecTotal512
Month Proforma: FY-2YearFY-2FY-2FY-2FY-2FY-2FY-2FY-
2FY-2FY-2FY-2FY-2FY-2 FY-
2MonthJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecTotalBR01-
01,Price per unit$4.00Variable cost $1.16Sales
Volume2,2252,2252,2142,2052,6953,4153,4153,3783,3783,4022
,2052,20532966Revenue$8,902$8,902$8,856$8,821$10,781$13,
662$13,662$13,513$13,513$13,610$8,821$8,821$131,864Expen
ses$2,581$2,581$2,568$2,558$3,127$3,962$3,962$3,919$3,919
$3,947$2,558$2,558$38,241Contribution$6,320$6,320$6,288$6,
263$7,655$9,700$9,700$9,594$9,594$9,663$6,263$6,263$93,62
3BR01-02,Price per unit$4.00Variable cost $1.10Sales
Volume1,7991,7991,9642,2182,6193,1053,1053,5093,5093,5492
,2182,21831612Revenue$7,196$7,196$7,856$8,873$10,474$12,
422$12,422$14,036$14,036$14,196$8,873$8,873$126,449Expen
ses$2,087$2,087$2,160$2,440$2,880$3,416$3,416$3,860$3,860
$3,904$2,440$2,440$34,989Contribution$5,109$5,109$5,695$6,
433$7,594$9,006$9,006$10,176$10,176$10,292$6,433$6,433$9
1,460BR01-03,Price per unit$3.50Variable cost $1.10Sales
Volume9969961,1951,2401,2401,2401,2402,3912,3911,2401,24
01,24016649Revenue$3,487$3,487$4,184$4,340$4,340$4,340$4
,340$8,368$8,368$4,340$4,340$4,340$58,273Expenses$1,156$1
,156$1,315$1,364$1,364$1,364$1,364$2,630$2,630$1,364$1,36
4$1,364$18,434Contribution$2,331$2,331$2,869$2,976$2,976$
2,976$2,976$5,738$5,738$2,976$2,976$2,976$39,839BR01-
04,Price per unit$3.50Variable cost $1.10Sales
Volume001,1101,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,24
012270Revenue$0$0$3,885$4,340$4,340$4,340$4,340$4,340$4,
340$4,340$4,340$4,340$42,945Expenses$0$0$1,221$1,364$1,3
64$1,364$1,364$1,364$1,364$1,364$1,364$1,364$13,497Contri
bution$0$0$2,664$2,976$2,976$2,976$2,976$2,976$2,976$2,97
6$2,976$2,976$29,448BR01-05,Price per unit$3.50Variable
cost $1.10Sales
Volume001,1101,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,24
012270Revenue$0$0$3,885$4,340$4,340$4,340$4,340$4,340$4,
340$4,340$4,340$4,340$42,945Expenses$0$0$1,221$1,364$1,3
64$1,364$1,364$1,364$1,364$1,364$1,364$1,364$13,497Contri
bution$0$0$2,664$2,976$2,976$2,976$2,976$2,976$2,976$2,97
6$2,976$2,976$29,448BR01-06,Price per unit$3.50Variable
cost $1.10Sales
Volume001,1101,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,24
012270Revenue$0$0$3,885$4,340$4,340$4,340$4,340$4,340$4,
340$4,340$4,340$4,340$42,945Expenses$0$0$1,221$1,364$1,3
64$1,364$1,364$1,364$1,364$1,364$1,364$1,364$13,497Contri
bution$0$0$2,664$2,976$2,976$2,976$2,976$2,976$2,976$2,97
6$2,976$2,976$29,448BR01-07,Price per unit$1.25Variable
cost $1.06Sales
Volume6,4556,4557,7068,95510,94513,86913,86916,46216,462
15,1988,9558,955134283Revenue$8,068$8,068$9,632$11,193$1
3,681$17,336$17,336$20,577$20,577$18,997$11,193$11,193$1
67,853Expenses$7,487$7,487$8,168$9,492$11,601$14,701$14,7
01$17,449$17,449$16,109$9,492$9,492$143,630Contribution$5
81$581$1,464$1,701$2,079$2,635$2,635$3,128$3,128$2,888$1,
701$1,701$24,223BR01-08,Price per unit$1.28Variable cost
$1.06Sales
Volume6,8816,8819,01510,18212,02014,25514,25517,57117,57
116,29110,18210,182145284Revenue$8,808$8,808$11,539$13,0
33$15,385$18,246$18,246$22,491$22,491$20,852$13,033$13,0
33$185,964Expenses$7,982$7,982$9,556$10,793$12,741$15,11
0$15,110$18,625$18,625$17,268$10,793$10,793$155,378Contr
ibution$826$826$1,983$2,240$2,644$3,136$3,136$3,866$3,866
$3,584$2,240$2,240$30,586BR01-09,Price per
unit$1.25Variable cost $1.10Sales
Volume2442446160242767689890001675Revenue$305$305$77
0$0$302$95$95$111$111$0$0$0$2,094Expenses$283$283$676
$0$265$83$83$98$98$0$0$0$1,869Contribution$22$22$94$0$3
7$12$12$14$14$0$0$0$225Total
Revenue$36,765$36,765$54,492$59,280$67,984$79,120$79,120
$92,116$92,116$85,015$59,280$59,280$801,333Total
Expenses$21,576$21,576$28,106$30,739$36,071$42,728$42,72
8$50,673$50,673$46,685$30,739$30,739$433,032Total
Contribution$15,189$15,189$26,386$28,541$31,913$36,392$36
,392$41,443$41,443$38,331$28,541$28,541$368,300Fixed
CostsFY-2 (Total)Employees
salaries$12,025$12,025$12,025$12,025$12,025$12,025$12,025
$12,025$12,025$12,025$12,025$12,025$144,300Utilities&Othe
r$3,592.50$3,593$3,593$3,593$3,593$3,593$3,593$3,593$3,59
3$3,593$3,593$3,593$43,110Marketing
Costs$3,515.00$3,515$3,515$3,515$3,515$3,515$3,515$3,515$
3,515$3,515$3,515$3,515$42,180Rent$462.50$463$463$463$4
63$463$463$463$463$463$463$463$5,550Loan
Payments$1,283$1,283$1,283$1,283$1,283$1,283$1,283$1,283
$1,283$1,283$1,283$1,283$15,391Total Fixed
Costs$22,065$22,065$22,065$22,065$22,065$22,065$22,065$2
2,065$22,065$22,065$22,065$22,065$264,781Depreciation$1,1
88$1,188$1,188$1,188$1,188$1,188$1,188$1,188$1,188$1,188$
1,188$1,188$14,250Profit (Before
Taxes)($6,877)($6,877)$4,320$6,476$9,848$14,327$14,327$19,
378$19,378$16,266$6,476$6,476$103,519Profit
taxes0.35Cumulative
Profit($6,877)($13,753)($9,433)($2,957)$6,891$21,218$35,545
$54,924$74,302$90,567$97,043$103,519Ending Cash
Balance($18,852)Profit (After
Taxes)($6,877)($6,877)$4,320$6,476$7,436$9,313$9,313$12,59
6$12,596$10,573$4,209$4,209$67,287YearFY-2FY-2FY-2FY-
2FY-2FY-2FY-2FY-2FY-2FY-2FY-2FY-2FY-
2MonthJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecTotal612
Month Proforma: FY-3YearFY-3FY-3FY-3FY-3FY-3FY-3FY-
3FY-3FY-3FY-3FY-3FY-3FY-
3MonthJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecTotal
BR01-01,Price per unit$4.00Variable cost $1.16Sales
Volume2,4712,4712,4172,5752,8513,5633,5633,6793,6793,5172
,5752,57535937Revenue$9,885$9,885$9,668$10,301$11,402$14
,253$14,253$14,716$14,716$14,066$10,301$10,301$143,747Ex
penses$2,867$2,867$2,804$2,987$3,307$4,133$4,133$4,268$4,
268$4,079$2,987$2,987$41,686Contribution$7,018$7,018$6,86
5$7,314$8,096$10,120$10,120$10,448$10,448$9,987$7,314$7,3
14$102,060BR01-02,Price per unit$4.00Variable cost
$1.10Sales
Volume2,1112,1112,0622,2912,7503,4373,4373,8403,8403,8712
,2912,29134333Revenue$8,445$8,445$8,249$9,165$10,998$13,
748$13,748$15,359$15,359$15,483$9,165$9,165$137,331Expen
ses$2,449$2,449$2,268$2,520$3,025$3,781$3,781$4,224$4,224
$4,258$2,520$2,520$38,019Contribution$5,996$5,996$5,980$6,
645$7,974$9,967$9,967$11,135$11,135$11,225$6,645$6,645$9
9,311BR01-03,Price per unit$3.50Variable cost $1.10Sales
Volume1,2001,2001,2401,2401,2402,3992,3992,4802,4802,4801
,2401,24020838Revenue$4,199$4,199$4,340$4,340$4,340$8,39
7$8,397$8,680$8,680$8,680$4,340$4,340$72,932Expenses$1,39
2$1,392$1,364$1,364$1,364$2,639$2,639$2,728$2,728$2,728$1
,364$1,364$23,066Contribution$2,807$2,807$2,976$2,976$2,97
6$5,758$5,758$5,952$5,952$5,952$2,976$2,976$49,867BR01-
04,Price per unit$3.50Variable cost $1.10Sales
Volume1,0401,0401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2402,4802,4802,2871
,2401,24018007Revenue$3,639$3,639$4,340$4,340$4,340$4,34
0$4,340$8,680$8,680$8,006$4,340$4,340$63,023Expenses$1,20
6$1,206$1,364$1,364$1,364$1,364$1,364$2,728$2,728$2,516$1
,364$1,364$19,932Contribution$2,433$2,433$2,976$2,976$2,97
6$2,976$2,976$5,952$5,952$5,490$2,976$2,976$43,091BR01-
05,Price per unit$3.50Variable cost $1.10Sales
Volume1,0401,0401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2402,4802,4802,2871
,2401,24018007Revenue$3,639$3,639$4,340$4,340$4,340$4,34
0$4,340$8,680$8,680$8,006$4,340$4,340$63,023Expenses$1,20
6$1,206$1,364$1,364$1,364$1,364$1,364$2,728$2,728$2,516$1
,364$1,364$19,932Contribution$2,433$2,433$2,976$2,976$2,97
6$2,976$2,976$5,952$5,952$5,490$2,976$2,976$43,091BR01-
06,Price per unit$3.50Variable cost $1.10Sales
Volume1,1201,1201,2401,2401,2402,2392,2392,4802,4802,4631
,2401,24020341Revenue$3,919$3,919$4,340$4,340$4,340$7,83
8$7,838$8,680$8,680$8,621$4,340$4,340$71,194Expenses$1,29
9$1,299$1,364$1,364$1,364$2,463$2,463$2,728$2,728$2,710$1
,364$1,364$22,510Contribution$2,620$2,620$2,976$2,976$2,97
6$5,374$5,374$5,952$5,952$5,912$2,976$2,976$48,685BR01-
07,Price per unit$1.25Variable cost $1.06Sales
Volume7,4497,4498,74310,86712,02915,03715,03718,63018,63
016,32310,86710,867151928Revenue$9,311$9,311$10,929$13,5
84$15,037$18,796$18,796$23,287$23,287$20,404$13,584$13,5
84$189,911Expenses$8,641$8,641$9,267$11,519$12,751$15,93
9$15,939$19,748$19,748$17,303$11,519$11,519$162,534Contr
ibution$670$670$1,661$2,065$2,286$2,857$2,857$3,540$3,540
$3,101$2,065$2,065$27,377BR01-08,Price per
unit$1.28Variable cost $1.06Sales
Volume7,7627,7629,09810,10912,13015,16315,16318,48018,48
017,07710,10910,109151443Revenue$9,936$9,936$11,645$12,9
39$15,527$19,409$19,409$23,655$23,655$21,859$12,939$12,9
39$193,847Expenses$9,004$9,004$9,644$10,715$12,858$16,07
3$16,073$19,589$19,589$18,102$10,715$10,715$162,082Contr
ibution$931$931$2,002$2,224$2,669$3,336$3,336$4,066$4,066
$3,757$2,224$2,224$31,765BR01-09,Price per
unit$1.25Variable cost $1.10Sales
Volume6086080197032132111115341971973007Revenue$759$
759$0$247$0$402$402$14$14$667$247$247$3,759Expenses$7
05$705$0$217$0$353$353$12$12$586$217$217$3,376Contribu
tion$55$55$0$30$0$49$49$2$2$81$30$30$383Total
Revenue$53,732$53,732$57,851$63,596$70,324$91,522$91,522
$111,751$111,751$105,793$63,596$63,596$938,767Total
Expenses$28,768$28,768$29,439$33,415$37,397$48,109$48,10
9$58,752$58,752$54,798$33,415$33,415$493,137Total
Contribution$24,964$24,964$28,412$30,181$32,928$43,413$43
,413$52,998$52,998$50,995$30,181$30,181$445,630Fixed
Costs FY-3 (Total)Employees
salaries$14,430$14,430$14,430$14,430$14,430$14,430$14,430
$14,430$14,430$14,430$14,430$14,430$173,160Utilities&Othe
r$3,954.75$3,955$3,955$3,955$3,955$3,955$3,955$3,955$3,95
5$3,955$3,955$3,955$47,457Marketing
Costs$4,218.00$4,218$4,218$4,218$4,218$4,218$4,218$4,218$
4,218$4,218$4,218$4,218$50,616Rent$555.00$555$555$555$5
55$555$555$555$555$555$555$555$6,660Loan
Payments$1,283$1,283$1,283$1,283$1,283$1,283$1,283$1,283
$1,283$1,283$1,283$1,283$15,391Total Fixed
Costs$25,509$25,509$25,509$25,509$25,509$25,509$25,509$2
5,509$25,509$25,509$25,509$25,509$306,109Depreciation$1,0
69$1,069$1,069$1,069$1,069$1,069$1,069$1,069$1,069$1,069$
1,069$1,069$12,825Profit (Before
Taxes)($545)($545)$2,902$4,672$7,419$17,904$17,904$27,489
$27,489$25,486$4,672$4,672$139,521Profit
Taxes0.35Cumulative
Profit($545)($1,090)$1,812$6,484$13,903$31,807$49,711$77,2
01$104,690$130,176$134,848$139,521Ending Cash
Balance$71,836Profit (After
Taxes)($545)($545)$2,268$3,037$4,822$11,638$11,638$17,868
$17,868$16,566$3,037$3,037$90,688YearFY-3FY-3FY-3FY-
3FY-3FY-3FY-3FY-3FY-3FY-3FY-3FY-3 FY-
3MonthJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecTotal7Finan
cial Summary: per FY and Overall 36 MonthsFY-1FY-2 FY-
3TotalTotal TotalTotalBR01-01,Sales
Volume96,14327,24132,96635,937Revenue384,573108,962131,
864143,747Expenses111,52631,59938,24141,686Contribution27
3,04777,36393,623102,060BR01-02,Sales
Volume96,40230,45731,61234,333Revenue385,607121,827126,
449137,331Expenses106,71633,70834,98938,019Contribution27
8,89188,12091,46099,311BR01-03,Sales
Volume49,67412,18716,64920,838Revenue173,86042,65558,27
372,932Expenses54,90513,40618,43423,066Contribution118,95
529,24939,83949,867BR01-04,Sales
Volume40,84710,57012,27018,007Revenue142,96536,99642,94
563,023Expenses45,05611,62713,49719,932Contribution97,908
25,36929,44843,091BR01-05,Sales
Volume40,84710,57012,27018,007Revenue142,96536,99642,94
563,023Expenses45,05611,62713,49719,932Contribution97,908
25,36929,44843,091BR01-06,Sales
Volume44,79812,18712,27020,341Revenue156,79442,65542,94
571,194Expenses49,41313,40613,49722,510Contribution107,38
229,24929,44848,685BR01-07,Sales
Volume405,264119,053134,283151,928Revenue506,580148,816
167,853189,911Expenses433,487127,322143,630162,534Contri
bution73,09321,49424,22327,377BR01-08,Sales
Volume444,536147,809145,284151,443Revenue569,006189,195
185,964193,847Expenses475,531158,072155,378162,082Contri
bution93,47531,12430,58631,765BR01-09,Sales
Volume6,6952,0131,6753,007Revenue8,3682,5162,0943,759Exp
enses7,4592,2141,8693,376Contribution909302225383Total
Revenue2,470,718730,619801,333938,767Total
Expenses1,329,150402,981433,032493,137Total
Contribution1,141,568327,638368,300445,630Fixed Costs
Employees
salaries447,460130,000144,300173,160Utilities&Other124,0673
3,50043,11047,457Marketing
Costs130,79638,00042,18050,616Rent17,2105,0005,5506,660Lo
an Payments46,17415,39115,39115,391Total Fixed
Costs800,282229,391264,781306,109Depreciation34,5757,5001
4,25012,825Profit (Before
Taxes)341,28698,246103,519139,521Ending Cash
Balance(86,140)(18,852)71,836Profit (After
Taxes)221,83663,86067,28790,688Year36 MonthsFY-1FY-2
FY-3
&8BU MET AD715: Quantitative and Qualitative Decision-
Making
2014 Professor Vladimir Zlatev &8Business Simulation:
Strategies and Decision Support in Organizations &8Copyright
2014 by Dr. Vladimir Zlatev
All Rights Reserved
&8File Name: &F &8&A &8
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Choose cycle to calculate
D-AnalysisCurrent Cycle 0Calculating 0MCS
Interation:01BREAK-EVEN ANALYSISFY-1TOTAL BRAND
01BR01-01,BR01-02,BR01-03,BR01-04,BR01-05,BR01-
06,BR01-07,BR01-08,BR01-
09,Revenue[$]$730,618.56$108,962$121,827$42,655$36,996$3
6,996$42,655$148,816$189,195$2,516Expenses[$]$402,980.91$
31,599$33,708$13,406$11,627$11,627$13,406$127,322$158,07
2$2,214Total Fixed Costs [$]$221,891Contribution
[$]$327,637.66$77,363$88,120$29,249$25,369$25,36929,249$2
1,494$31,124$302Contribution Margin
[%]44.8471.0072.3368.5768.5768.5768.5714.4416.4511.98Brea
k-even Months8.13Break-even Months8.13[=Total Fixed
Costs/Contribution*12 months]Sales $494,809Sales
$494,809[=Total Fixed Costs/Contribution Margin]X-axis
range08.13Fixed Cost Range$221,891$221,891Total Revenue
Range$0494,809Total Cost Range$221,891494,8092WHAT IF
ANALYSIS2.1What is the BEP if the total fixed costs are
increased and/or decreased while the selling price and the
variable costs per products remain the same?FY-1BRAND
01TOTAL BRAND 01BR01-01,BR01-02,BR01-03,BR01-
04,BR01-05,BR01-06,BR01-07,BR01-08,BR01-09,Total Fixed
Costs
[$]$221,891Price/unit[$]$4.00$4.00$3.50$3.50$3.50$3.50$1.25
$1.28$1.25Variable
cost/unit[$]$1.16$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.06$1.06$1.10Co
ntribution/unit[$]$2.84$2.90$2.40$2.40$2.40$2.40$0.19$0.22$0
.15Contribution
margin[%]45.22%71.00%72.50%68.57%68.57%68.57%68.57%1
5.20%17.19%12.00%Sales Volume
[quantity]27,24130,45712,18710,57010,57012,187119,053147,8
092,013Revenue[$]$730,619$108,962$121,827$42,655$36,996$
36,996$42,655$148,816$189,195$2,516% of
Sales[%]14.91%16.67%5.84%5.06%5.06%5.84%20.37%25.90%
0.34%Expense[$]$400,255$31,599$33,503$13,406$11,627$11,6
27$13,406$126,196$156,677$2,214Contribution[$]$330,363$77
,363$88,325$29,249$25,369$25,369$29,249$22,620$32,518$30
2[%]23.42%26.74%8.85%7.68%7.68%8.85%6.85%9.84%0.09%I
ncrease to:Total Fixed Costs
[$]$250,000Price/unit[$]$4.00$4.00$3.50$3.50$3.50$3.50$1.25
$1.28$1.25Variable
cost/unit[$]$1.16$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.06$1.06$1.10Co
ntribution/unit[$]$2.84$2.90$2.40$2.40$2.40$2.40$0.19$0.22$0
.15Contribution
margin[%]45.22%71.00%72.50%68.57%68.57%68.57%68.57%1
5.20%17.19%12.00%Sales Volume
[quantity]27,24130,45712,18710,57010,57012,187119,053147,8
092,013Revenue[$]$730,619$108,962$121,827$42,655$36,996$
36,996$42,655$148,816$189,195$2,516% of
Sales[%]14.91%16.67%5.84%5.06%5.06%5.84%20.37%25.90%
0.34%Expense[$]$400,255$31,599$33,503$13,406$11,627$11,6
27$13,406$126,196$156,677$2,214Contribution[$]$330,363$77
,363$88,325$29,249$25,369$25,369$29,249$22,620$32,518$30
2[%]23.42%26.74%8.85%7.68%7.68%8.85%6.85%9.84%0.09%
Break-Even PointMonths9.08(BEP)Revenue$552,890Decrease
to:Total Fixed Costs
[$]$230,000Price/unit[$]$4.00$4.00$3.50$3.50$3.50$3.50$1.25
$1.28$1.25Variable
cost/unit[$]$1.16$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.06$1.06$1.10Co
ntribution/unit[$]$2.84$2.90$2.40$2.40$2.40$2.40$0.19$0.22$0
.15Contribution
margin[%]45.22%71.00%72.50%68.57%68.57%68.57%68.57%1
5.20%17.19%12.00%Sales Volume
[quantity]27,24130,45712,18710,57010,57012,187119,053147,8
092,013Revenue[$]$730,619$108,962$121,827$42,655$36,996$
36,996$42,655$148,816$189,195$2,516% of
Sales[%]14.91%16.67%5.84%5.06%5.06%5.84%20.37%25.90%
0.34%Expense[$]$400,255$31,599$33,503$13,406$11,627$11,6
27$13,406$126,196$156,677$2,214Contribution[$]$330,363$77
,363$88,325$29,249$25,369$25,369$29,249$22,620$32,518$30
2[%]23.42%26.74%8.85%7.68%7.68%8.85%6.85%9.84%0.09%
Break-Even PointMonths8.35(BEP)Revenue$508,6592.2What is
the BEP if the selling prices per products are increased and/or
decreased while the total fixed costs and the variable costs per
products remain the same?FY-1BRAND 01TOTAL BRAND
01BR01-01,BR01-02,BR01-03,BR01-04,BR01-05,BR01-
06,BR01-07,BR01-08,BR01-09,Total Fixed Costs
[$]$221,891Price/unit[$]$4.00$4.00$3.50$3.50$3.50$3.50$1.25
$1.28$1.25Variable
cost/unit[$]$1.16$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.06$1.06$1.10Co
ntribution/unit[$]$2.84$2.90$2.40$2.40$2.40$2.40$0.19$0.22$0
.15Contribution
margin[%]45.22%71.00%72.50%68.57%68.57%68.57%68.57%1
5.20%17.19%12.00%Sales Volume
[quantity]27,24130,45712,18710,57010,57012,187119,053147,8
092,013Revenue[$]$730,619$108,962$121,827$42,655$36,996$
36,996$42,655$148,816$189,195$2,516% of
Sales[%]14.91%16.67%5.84%5.06%5.06%5.84%20.37%25.90%
0.34%Expense[$]$400,255$31,599$33,503$13,406$11,627$11,6
27$13,406$126,196$156,677$2,214Contribution[$]$330,363$77
,363$88,325$29,249$25,369$25,369$29,249$22,620$32,518$30
2[%]23.42%26.74%8.85%7.68%7.68%8.85%6.85%9.84%0.09%
Total Fixed Costs [$]$221,891Increase
to:Price/unit[$]$4.00$4.00$3.50$3.50$3.50$3.50$1.25$1.28$1.2
5Variable
cost/unit[$]$1.16$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.06$1.06$1.10Co
ntribution/unit[$]$2.84$2.90$2.40$2.40$2.40$2.40$0.19$0.22$0
.15Contribution
margin[%]45.22%71.00%72.50%68.57%68.57%68.57%68.57%1
5.20%17.19%12.00%Sales Volume
[quantity]27,24130,45712,18710,57010,57012,187119,053147,8
092,013Revenue[$]$730,619$108,962.44$121,827.34$42,654.69
$36,996.07$36,996.07$42,654.69$148,816.26$189,195.32$2,51
5.68% of
Sales[%]14.91%16.67%5.84%5.06%5.06%5.84%20.37%25.90%
0.34%Expense[$]$400,255$31,599.11$33,502.52$13,405.76$11,
627.34$11,627.34$13,405.76$126,196.19$156,677.38$2,213.80
Contribution[$]$330,363$77,363.34$88,324.82$29,248.93$25,3
68.73$25,368.73$29,248.93$22,620.07$32,517.95$301.88[%]23
.42%26.74%8.85%7.68%7.68%8.85%6.85%9.84%0.09%Break-
Even PointMonths8.06(BEP)Revenue$490,726Total Fixed Costs
[$]$221,891Decrease
to:Price/unit[$]$4.00$4.00$3.50$3.50$3.50$3.50$1.25$1.28$1.2
5Variable
cost/unit[$]$1.16$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.06$1.06$1.10Co
ntribution/unit[$]$2.84$2.90$2.40$2.40$2.40$2.40$0.19$0.22$0
.15Contribution
margin[%]45.22%$0.71$0.73$0.69$0.69$0.69$0.69$0.15$0.17$
0.12Sales Volume
[quantity]$27,240.61$30,456.83$12,187.06$10,570.31$10,570.3
1$12,187.06$119,053.01$147,808.85$2,012.54Revenue[$]$730,
619$108,962.44$121,827.34$42,654.69$36,996.07$36,996.07$4
2,654.69$148,816.26$189,195.32$2,515.68% of
Sales[%]$0.15$0.17$0.06$0.05$0.05$0.06$0.20$0.26$0.00Expe
nse[$]$400,255$31,599.11$33,502.52$13,405.76$11,627.34$11,
627.34$13,405.76$126,196.19$156,677.38$2,213.80Contributio
n[$]$330,363$77,363.34$88,324.82$29,248.93$25,368.73$25,36
8.73$29,248.93$22,620.07$32,517.95$301.88[%]$0.23$0.27$0.
09$0.08$0.08$0.09$0.07$0.10$0.00Break-Even
PointMonths8.06(BEP)Revenue$490,7262.3What is the BEP if
the Variable Cost/unit are increased and/or decreased while the
total fixed costs and the price per products remain the
same?BRAND 01TOTAL BRAND 01BR01-01,BR01-02,BR01-
03,BR01-04,BR01-05,BR01-06,BR01-07,BR01-08,BR01-
09,Total Fixed Costs
[$]$221,891Price/unit[$]$4.00$4.00$3.50$3.50$3.50$3.50$1.25
$1.28$1.25Variable
cost/unit[$]$1.16$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.06$1.06$1.10Co
ntribution/unit[$]$2.84$2.90$2.40$2.40$2.40$2.40$0.19$0.22$0
.15Contribution
margin[%]45.22%71.00%72.50%68.57%68.57%68.57%68.57%1
5.20%17.19%12.00%Sales Volume
[quantity]27,24130,45712,18710,57010,57012,187119,053147,8
092,013Revenue[$]$730,619$108,962$121,827$42,655$36,996$
36,996$42,655$148,816$189,195$2,516% of
Sales[%]14.91%16.67%5.84%5.06%5.06%5.84%20.37%25.90%
0.34%Expense[$]$400,255$31,599$33,503$13,406$11,627$11,6
27$13,406$126,196$156,677$2,214Contribution[$]$330,363$77
,363$88,325$29,249$25,369$25,369$29,249$22,620$32,518$30
2[%]23.42%26.74%8.85%7.68%7.68%8.85%6.85%9.84%0.09%
Total Fixed Costs
[$]$221,891Price/unit[$]$4.00$4.00$3.50$3.50$3.50$3.50$1.25
$1.28$1.25Increase to:Variable
cost/unit[$]$1.16$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.06$1.06$1.10Co
ntribution/unit[$]$2.84$2.90$2.40$2.40$2.40$2.40$0.19$0.22$0
.15Contribution
margin[%]45.22%71.00%72.50%68.57%68.57%68.57%68.57%1
5.20%17.19%12.00%Sales Volume
[quantity]27,24130,45712,18710,57010,57012,187119,053147,8
092,013Revenue[$]$730,619$108,962$121,827$42,655$36,996$
36,996$42,655$148,816$189,195$2,516% of
Sales[%]14.91%16.67%5.84%5.06%5.06%5.84%20.37%25.90%
0.34%Expense[$]$400,255$31,599$33,503$13,406$11,627$11,6
27$13,406$126,196$156,677$2,214Contribution[$]$330,363$77
,363$88,325$29,249$25,369$25,369$29,249$22,620$32,518$30
2[%]23.42%26.74%8.85%7.68%7.68%8.85%6.85%9.84%0.09%
Break-Even PointMonths8.06(BEP)Sales $ 490,726Total Fixed
Costs
[$]$221,891Price/unit[$]$4.00$4.00$3.50$3.50$3.50$3.50$1.25
$1.28$1.25Decrease to:Variable
cost/unit[$]$1.16$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.06$1.06$1.10Co
ntribution/unit[$]$2.84$2.90$2.40$2.40$2.40$2.40$0.19$0.22$0
.15Contribution
margin[%]45.22%71.00%72.50%68.57%68.57%68.57%68.57%1
5.20%17.19%12.00%Sales Volume
[quantity]27,24130,45712,18710,57010,57012,187119,053147,8
092,013Revenue[$]$730,619$108,962$121,827$42,655$36,996$
36,996$42,655$148,816$189,195$2,516% of
Sales[%]14.91%16.67%5.84%5.06%5.06%5.84%20.37%25.90%
0.34%Expense[$]$400,255$31,599$33,503$13,406$11,627$11,6
27$13,406$126,196$156,677$2,214Contribution[$]$330,363$77
,363$88,325$29,249$25,369$25,369$29,249$22,620$32,518$30
2[%]23.42%26.74%8.85%7.68%7.68%8.85%6.85%9.84%0.09%
Break-Even PointMonths8.06(BEP)Sales $
490,7263SENSITIVITY ANALYSISFY-1BRAND 01TOTAL
BRAND 01BR01-01,BR01-02,BR01-03,BR01-04,BR01-
05,BR01-06,BR01-07,BR01-08,BR01-
09,[retail][retail][retail][retail][retail][retail][wholesale][wholes
ale][retail]Total Fixed Costs
[$]$221,891Price/unit[$]$4.00$4.00$3.50$3.50$3.50$3.50$1.25
$1.28$1.25Variable
cost/unit[$]$1.16$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.06$1.06$1.10Co
ntribution/unit[$]$2.84$2.90$2.40$2.40$2.40$2.40$0.19$0.22$0
.15Contribution
margin[%]45.22%71.00%72.50%68.57%68.57%68.57%68.57%1
5.20%17.19%12.00%Sales Volume
[quantity]372,08727,24130,45712,18710,57010,57012,187119,0
53147,8092,013Revenue[$]$730,619$108,962$121,827$42,655$
36,996$36,996$42,655$148,816$189,195$2,516% of
Sales[%]14.91%16.67%5.84%5.06%5.06%5.84%20.37%25.90%
0.34%Expense[$]$400,255$31,599$33,503$13,406$11,627$11,6
27$13,406$126,196$156,677$2,214Contribution[$]$330,363$77
,363$88,325$29,249$25,369$25,369$29,249$22,620$32,518$30
2[%]23.42%26.74%8.85%7.68%7.68%8.85%6.85%9.84%0.09%
Profit (Before Taxes)[$]$108,472Price
SensitivityMin$3.00$3.00$2.50$2.50$2.50$2.50$1.00$1.00$1.0
0$1.00Base$4.00$4.00$3.50$3.50$3.50$3.50$1.25$1.28$1.28$1.
28Market
Research$5.00$5.00$4.00$4.00$4.00$4.00$1.30$1.35$1.35$1.35
Max$6.00$6.00$5.00$5.00$5.00$5.00$1.50$1.50$1.50$1.50Var
Costs
SensitivityMin$0.40$0.40$0.40$0.40$0.40$0.40$0.40$0.40$0.4
0$0.40Base$0.53$0.53$0.50$0.50$0.50$0.50$0.41$0.41$0.41$0.
41Market
Research$0.60$0.60$0.60$0.60$0.60$0.60$0.60$0.60$0.60$0.60
Max$0.90$0.90$0.90$0.90$0.90$0.90$0.90$0.90$0.90$0.90retai
lwholesalemax divided by
min21.5Min2724130457121871057010570121877936998539201
3Projected
Consumption[quantity]3518293632140609170621479814798170
62952421133202616Max54481609142437421141211412437411
90531478094025ContributionProjected$ 708,764$ 159,812$
178,680$ 58,010$ 50,315$ 50,315$ 58,010$ 66,670$
84,990$ 1,962Profit before
TaxesProjected$486,8724OPTIMIZATION ANALYSISFY-
1BRAND 01TOTAL BRAND 01BR01-01,BR01-02,BR01-
03,BR01-04,BR01-05,BR01-06,BR01-07,BR01-08,BR01-
09,[retail][retail][retail][retail][retail][retail][wholesale][wholes
ale][retail]Total Fixed Costs
[$]$221,891Price/unit[$]$4.00$4.00$3.50$3.50$3.50$3.50$1.25
$1.28$1.25Variable
cost/unit[$]$1.16$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.06$1.06$1.10Co
ntribution/unit[$]$2.84$2.90$2.40$2.40$2.40$2.40$0.19$0.22$0
.15Contribution
margin[%]45.22%71.00%72.50%68.57%68.57%68.57%68.57%1
5.20%17.19%12.00%Sales Volume
[quantity]27,24130,45712,18710,57010,57012,187119,053147,8
092,013Revenue[$]$730,619$108,962$121,827$42,655$36,996$
36,996$42,655$148,816$189,195$2,516% of
Sales[%]14.91%16.67%5.84%5.06%5.06%5.84%20.37%25.90%
0.34%Expense[$]$400,255$31,599$33,503$13,406$11,627$11,6
27$13,406$126,196$156,677$2,214Contribution[$]$330,363$77
,363$88,325$29,249$25,369$25,369$29,249$22,620$32,518$30
2[%]23.42%26.74%8.85%7.68%7.68%8.85%6.85%9.84%0.09%
Profit (Before Taxes)[$]$108,472Price
SensitivityMin$3.00$3.00$2.50$2.50$2.50$2.50$1.00$1.00$1.0
0$1.00Base$4.00$4.00$3.50$3.50$3.50$3.50$1.25$1.28$1.281.2
8Market
Research$5.00$5.00$4.00$4.00$4.00$4.00$1.30$1.35$1.35$1.35
Max$6.00$6.00$5.00$5.00$5.00$5.00$1.50$1.50$1.50$1.50Var
Costs
SensitivityMin$0.40$0.40$0.40$0.40$0.40$0.40$0.40$0.40$0.4
0$0.40Base$0.53$0.53$0.50$0.50$0.50$0.50$0.41$0.41$0.410.4
1Market
Research$0.60$0.60$0.60$0.60$0.60$0.60$0.60$0.60$0.60$0.60
Max$0.90$0.90$0.90$0.90$0.90$0.90$0.90$0.90$0.90$0.90FAL
SEFALSEFALSEFALSEFALSEFALSEFALSEFALSETRUEretai
lwholesalemax divided by
min21.5Min2724130457121871057010570121877936998539201
3Projected
Consumption[quantity]3518293632140609170621479814798170
62952421133202616Max54481609142437421141211412437411
90531478094025min consumption deviation-2.00%consumption
deviation-5.44%max consumption
deviation2.00%ContributionProjected$708,764$159,811.58$178
,680.09$58,010.38$50,314.65$50,314.65$58,010.38$66,669.68$
84,990.09$1,962.23Fixed Costs (Please enter manually)Profit
before TaxesProjected$708,764Targeted Market size
recommended for next
cycle:25.82%28.87%12.13%10.52%10.52%12.13%45.67%54.33
%5RISK ANALYSISCycle used for MCS: Total iterations:
100 Current Interaction: 0Cycle used in
calculation0Average (Profit)Failure rate (Profit)Standard
Deviation (Profit)Cycle used in calculationAverage
(Profit)Failure rate (Profit)Standard Deviation (Profit)Cycle
used in calculationAverage (Profit)Failure rate (Profit)Standard
Deviation (Profit)Cycle used in calculationAverage
(Profit)Failure rate (Profit)Standard deviation (Profit)Average
(IRR)Failure rate (Return on investment)Standard deviation
(IRR)
&8BU MET AD715: Quantitative and Qualitative Decision-
Making
2014 Professor Vladimir Zlatev &8Business Simulation:
Strategies and Decision Support in Organizations &8Copyright
2014 by Dr. Vladimir Zlatev
All Rights Reserved
&8File Name: &F &8&A &8
Page &P of &N
Break-Even Analysis Chart: BRAND 01
Total Fixed Costs 0 8.1269521946897054 221891.3
221891.3 Break-Even Point 8.1269521946897054
494808.52424172848 Total Revenue 0
8.1269521946897054 0 494808.52424172848
Total Cost 0 8.1269521946897054 221891.3
494808.52424172848
Months
Total Revenue [$]
36 month profit after taxes
D-Analysis
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PerformanceCurrent Cycle 0Calculating 01Key Success
IndicatorsFrom Project-StartFY-0FY-1FY-2FY-
3FY1+FY2+FY3Introducing an individually controlled brand
(utilization in %)[%]85.08%90.57%98.80%91.48%Retain of
critical technology personnel[number]1121.33Retain of critical
marketing personnel[number]1121.33From Current CycleFY-
0FY-1FY-2FY-3FY1+FY2+FY3Introducing an individually
controlled brand (utilization in
%)[%]78.14%83.85%95.31%85.77%Retention of critical
technology personnel[number]1121.33Retention of critical
marketing personnel[number]1121.332Key Performance
IndicatorsFrom Project-StartFY-0FY-1FY-2FY-
3FY1+FY2+FY3KPI 1:Actual size of the local
market[units]15,000,000103%106%110%KPI 2:Number of
customers- existing business[customers]90,000KPI 3:Average
consumption per existing customer[units]2.0KPI 4:Size of the
penetrated market - without new
project[%]0%105%110%115%[units]180,000189,000198,00020
7,000594,000KPI 5:Overall increase of the penetrated market -
with new project[%]220%KPI 6:Projected structure of the
annual sales, new penetr.
market[%]31.00%33.00%36.00%100.00%Projected sales, new
brand[units]405,108431,244470,4481,306,800KPI 7:Projected
consumption in the existing business, new brand
only[%]31.0%33.0%34.0%32.74%[units]125,583142,311159,95
2427,846Projected beer consumption (new brand % of
all)[%]66%72%77%Wholesale distribution (new
brand)[%]69%67%66%67.26%[units]279,525288,933310,49687
8,954KPI 8:Capacity of the new technology (max
units/year)[units]476,160476,160476,160476,160From Current
CycleFY-0FY-1FY-2FY-3FY1+FY2+FY3KPI 1:Actual size of
the local market[units]15,000,000103%106%110%KPI
2:Number customers- existing business[customers]90,000KPI
3:Average consumption per existing customer[units]2KPI 4:Size
of the penetrated market - without new
project[%]0%105%110%115%[units]180,000189,000198,00020
7,000594,000KPI 5:Overall increase of the penetrated market -
with new project[%]220%KPI 6:Projected structure of the
annual sales, new penetr. market[%]0.00%Projected sales, new
brand[units]372,087399,280453,8401,225,207KPI 7:Projected
consumption in the existing business, new brand
only[%]28%30%33%30.64%[units]105,225119,713150,469375,
406Projected beer consumption (new brand % of
all)[%]56%60%73%Wholesale distribution (new
brand)[%]72%70%67%69.36%[units]266,862279,567303,37184
9,800KPI 8:Capacity of the new technology (max
units/year)[units]476,160476,160476,160476,160Projected
consumption current cycle VS Project-Start [Retail]Projected
consumption current cycle VS Project-Start
[Wholesale]Recommended additional value for next cycleFY-
1FY-2FY-3FY-1FY-2FY-3FY-1FY-2FY-3Project-
start125,583142,311159,952Project-
start279,525288,933310,496Project
Start405,108431,244470,448Current
cycle105,225119,713150,469Current
cycle266,862279,567303,371Current
Cycle372,087399,280453,84083.8%84.1%94.1%95.5%96.8%97.
7%Recommended Value33,02131,96416,6083 EFFICIENCY
RATIOS1. Total Sales/Type of Product [%]BR01-01,BR01-
02,BR01-03,BR01-04,BR01-05,BR01-06,BR01-07,BR01-
08,BR01-09,FY-
114.91%16.67%5.84%5.06%5.06%5.84%20.37%25.90%0.34%F
Y-
216.46%15.78%7.27%5.36%5.36%5.36%20.95%23.21%0.26%F
Y-
315.31%14.63%7.77%6.71%6.71%7.58%20.23%20.65%0.40%T
otal 3
years15.57%15.61%7.04%5.79%5.79%6.35%20.50%23.03%0.34
%2. Total Variable Costs/Type of Product [%]BR01-01,BR01-
02,BR01-03,BR01-04,BR01-05,BR01-06,BR01-07,BR01-
08,BR01-09,FY-
17.84%8.36%3.33%2.89%2.89%3.33%31.60%39.23%0.55%FY-
28.83%8.08%4.26%3.12%3.12%3.12%33.17%35.88%0.43%FY-
38.45%7.71%4.68%4.04%4.04%4.56%32.96%32.87%0.68%Tota
l 3
years8.39%8.03%4.13%3.39%3.39%3.72%32.61%35.78%0.56%
3. Total Contribution/Type of Product [%]BR01-01,BR01-
02,BR01-03,BR01-04,BR01-05,BR01-06,BR01-07,BR01-
08,BR01-09,FY-
123.61%26.90%8.93%7.74%7.74%8.93%6.56%9.50%0.09%FY-
225.42%24.83%10.82%8.00%8.00%8.00%6.58%8.30%0.06%FY
-
322.90%22.29%11.19%9.67%9.67%10.92%6.14%7.13%0.09%T
otal 3
years23.92%24.43%10.42%8.58%8.58%9.41%6.40%8.19%0.08
%4.FY-1FY-2FY-3Fixed Costs/Total Revenue of BRAND 01
[$]$0.31$0.33$0.33The company spends $0.XX fixed costs for
the overall sale of $1.00 from BRAND
015.Compensations/Total Revenue of BRAND 01
[$]$0.18$0.18$0.18The company spends $0.XX costs for
compensation needed for the overall sale of $1.00 from
BRAND 016.(Local Advertising + Trade Shows)/Total Revenue
Sales [$]$0.05$0.05$0.05The company spends $0.XX costs for
advertising & trade shows needed for the overall sale of $1.00
from BRAND 017.FY-1FY-2FY-3Profit B.T. / Total Revenue of
BRAND 01 [$]$0.13$0.13$0.15The company make $0.XX
overall profit before taxes for the overall sale of $1.00 from
BRAND 014Trend AnalysisFY-1FY-2FY-
3FY1+FY2+FY3Revenue$ 730,619$ 801,333$ 938,767$
2,470,718Expenses$ 402,981$ 433,032$ 493,137$
1,329,150Total contribution$ 327,638$ 368,300$ 445,630$
1,141,568FY-1FY-2FY-3FY1+FY2+FY3Profit Before Taxes$
98,246$ 103,519$ 139,521$ 341,286Fixed Costs$
229,391$ 264,781$ 306,109$ 800,282FY-1FY-2FY-
3FY1+FY2+FY3Marketing Cost$ 38,000$ 42,180$ 50,616$
130,796Compensation$ 130,000$ 144,300$ 173,160$
447,460Other costs$ 68,891$ 92,551$ 95,158$ 256,601FY-
1FY-2FY-3Q-1Q-2Q-3Q-4Q-1Q-2Q-3Q-4Q-1Q-2Q-3Q-
4Revenue$103,325$196,454$241,450$189,389$128,021$206,38
4$263,353$203,575$165,315$225,443$315,024$232,985Expens
es$61,517$105,443$134,580$101,441$71,258$109,537$144,074
$108,162$86,975$118,921$165,614$121,628Contribution$41,80
8$91,011$106,870$87,948$56,763$96,846$119,279$95,413$78,
340$106,522$149,410$111,358Fixed
Costs$57,348$57,348$57,348$57,348$66,195$66,195$66,195$6
6,195$76,527$76,527$76,527$76,527Profit (B.
T.)($15,539)$33,663$49,522$30,600($9,433)$30,651$53,083$2
9,217$1,812$29,995$72,883$34,830RevenueExpensesContributi
onFixed CostsProft BT
&8BU MET AD715: Quantitative and Qualitative Decision-
Making
2014 Vladimir Zlatev &8Business Simulation:
Strategies and Decision Support in Organizations &8Copyright
2014 by Dr. Vladimir Zlatev
All Rights Reserved
&8File Name: &F &8&A &8
Page &P of &N
FY-3
Marketing CostCompensation Other costs 50616 173160
95158.295580719074
Fixed Costs Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 66195.323895179768
66195.323895179768 66195.323895179768 6619
5.323895179768
Profit (B. T.) Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 -9432.5866160125515
30650.987933843135 53083.348305568346
29217.355101300363
Revenue Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 165314.9083160148
225442.96867517338 315023.92458998109
232985.32 414678138
Expenses Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 86975.397172554018
118920.62162397467 165613.61483149632
121627. 58362095362
Contribution Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 78339.511143460782
106522.34705119871 149410.30975848474 111
357.74052582771
Fixed Costs Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 76527.323895179768
76527.323895179768 76527.323895179768 7652
7.323895179768
Profit (B. T.) Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 1812.1872482810104
29995.023156018939 72882.985863304973
34830.416630647931
Revenue Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 103325.41247329237
196454.04290665637 241449.78312279668
189389.3 2849645941
Contribution Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 57347.823895179783
57347.823895179783 57347.823895179783 573
47.823895179783
Profit (B. T.) Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 -15539.402508628729
33663.360331078118 49522.058795351724
30600.359173405363
FY-2
Marketing CostCompensation Other costs 42180 144300
92551.295580719074
Expenses Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 61516.991086741313
105442.85868039847 134579.90043226516
101441. 14542787427
Contribution Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 41808.421386551054
91011.184226257901 106869.88269053151 879
48.183068585146
1. Total Sales/Type of Product [%]
BR01-01, BR01-02, BR01-03, BR01-04, BR01-05, BR01-06,
BR01-07, BR01-08, BR01-09, 0.15565221982959884
0.1560709717922612 7.0368221650282239E-2
5.7863575323679972E-2 5.7863575323679972E-2
6.3460977463263651E-2 0.20503348692907791
0.23029998430809717 3.3869873395848374E-3
2. Total Variable Costs/Type of Product [%]
BR01-01, BR01-02, BR01-03, BR01-04, BR01-05, BR01-06,
BR01-07, BR01-08, BR01-09, 8.3907824656709054E-2
8.0289100836853963E-2 4.1308518504401148E-2
3.3898719542237825E-2 3.3898719542237825E-2
3.7176034475784409E-2 0.32613808077338508
0.35777100106250614 5.6120006811205972E-3
3. Total Contribution/Type of Product [%]
BR01-01, BR01-02, BR01-03, BR01-04, BR01-05, BR01-06,
BR01-07, BR01-08, BR01-09, 0.23918564153504271
0.24430530650582799 0.10420301021333779
8.5766331920808347E-2 8.5766331920808347E-2
9.4065057677237038E-2 6.4029007442197361E-2
8.1882952501543899E-2 7.9636028319638732E-4
[类别名称]
[百分比]
R W 0.31 0.69
R W 0.28279631532949412 0.71720368467050588
[类别名称]
[百分比]
R W 0.33 0.66999999999999993
R W 0.29982213769138155 0.70017786230861845
FY-1
Marketing CostCompensation Other costs 38000 130000
68891.295580719161
[类别名称]
[百分比]
R W 0.34 0.65999999999999992
R W 0.33154563938672998 0.66845436061327002
Project-Start 125583.48 142310.52000000002
159952.32000000001 Current Cycle FY-1FY-2FY-3
105224.70939593052 119712.98313741482
150468.67297927354 Percentage
0.83788655479152607 0.84120965292948691
0.9407095375626533
Project-start 279524.51999999996 288933.48
310495.67999999993 Current Cycle FY-1FY-2FY-3
266861.85500406951 279567.01686258521
303371.3270207264 Percentage
0.95469926933089644 0.96758263134679035
0.97705490466317102
Efficiency Ratio of Task 4,5,6
Fixed cost/Total overall sales FY-1FY-2FY-3
0.31396860953434924 0.33042624573727902
0.32607585757048319 Compensations/total overall sales
FY-1FY-2FY-30.17793142122562766
0.18007505838097945 0.18445469089655872
(Advertising + Trade Shows)/Total overall sales FY-1
FY-2FY-35.2010723127491165E-2
5.2637324757517069E-2 5.3917525031301781E-2
Efficiency Ratio of Task 7
Profit B.T. / Total Revenue of BRAND 01 [$ ] FY-1FY-2
FY-30.13447013288304976 0.12918370635375573
0.14862111068286935
FY-1
Revenue Expenses Total contribution 402980.89562727924
327637.67137192556
FY-2
Revenue Expenses Total contribution 433032.11790878535
368300.40030541836
FY-3
Expenses Total contribution 493137.21724897868
445629.90847897192
FY-3Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 165314.9083160148
225442.96867517338 315023.92458998109
232985.32414 678138 FY-2128021.21140539796
206383.50944394595 263352.80732837977
203574.99003648001 FY-1103325.41247329237
196454.04290665637 241449.78312279668
189389.32849645941
FY-1
Profit Before Taxes Fixed Costs 139520.61289825288
306109.29558071907
FY-3Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 86975.397172554018
118920.62162397467 165613.61483149632
121627.5836 2095362 FY-271258.474126230736
109537.19761492303 144074.13512763169
108162.31103999988 FY-161516.991086741313
105442.85868039847 134579.90043226516
101441.14542787427
FY-3Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 78339.511143460782
106522.34705119871 149410.30975848474
111357.7405 2582771 FY-256762.737279167224
96846.311829022918 119278.67220074811
95412.678996480143 FY-141808.421386551054
91011.184226257901 106869.88269053151
87948.183068585146
FY-3Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 76527.323895179768
76527.323895179768 76527.323895179768
76527.32389 5179768 FY-266195.323895179768
66195.323895179768 66195.323895179768
66195.323895179768 FY-157347.823895179783
57347.823895179783 57347.823895179783
57347.823895179783
FY-3Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 1812.1872482810104
29995.023156018939 72882.985863304973
34830.41663 0647931 FY-2-9432.5866160125515
30650.987933843135 53083.348305568346
29217.355101300363 FY-1-15539.402508628729
33663.360331078118 49522.058795351724
30600.359173405363
Retention of critical technology personnel
Retain of critical technology personnel FY-1FY-2FY-31 1
2 Retention of critical technology personnel FY-1
FY-2FY-31 1 2
Retention of critical marketing personnel
Retain of critical marketi ng personnel FY-1FY-2FY-31 1
2 Retention of critical marketing personnelFY-1FY-2
FY-31 1 2
FY-1
Profit Before Taxes Fixed Costs 103519.1047246993
264781.29558071907
FY-1
Profit Before Taxes Fixed Costs 98246.375791206476
229391.29558071916
Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 128021.21140539796
206383.50944394595 263352.80732837977
203574.99003648001
Expenses Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 71258.474126230736
109537.19761492303 144074.13512763169
108162. 31103999988
Contribution Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 56762.737279167224
96846.311829022918 119278.67220074811 954
12.678996480143
In a successful decision cycle, efficiency ratios should decrease
each year
In a successful decision cycle, efficiency ratios should increase
each year
II: Total Contribution- Fixed Costs
III: Fixed Cost Structure
I: Product Structure
Sim-ReportCurrentCycle 0 Cycle in Calculation 0
Cycle for Monte-Carlo Simulation Cycles StartCycle 01Cycle
02Cycle 03Cycle 04Cycle 05Cycle 06Cycle 07Underlying
Cycles0Department#Selected metrics for analyzing and
evaluating the efficiency of projects or investmentsTotal
revenue, Total2,470,718Total Revenue, FY1730,619Total
Revenue, FY2801,333Total Revenue, FY3938,767Profit Before
Taxes, Total341,286Profit Before Taxes, FY-198,246Profit
Before Taxes, FY-2103,519Profit Before Taxes, FY-
3139,521Net Profit (After Taxes), Total221,836Net Profit
(After Taxes), FY-163,860Net Profit (After Taxes), FY-
267,287Net Profit (After Taxes), FY-390,688Invested
Capital(150,000)Profit BT/Total Revenue (36 Month)0.14Net
Profit/Total Revenue (36 Month)0.09Break Even Point:
Months8Break Even Point: Revenue494,809Ending Cash
Balance (End of FY-1)(86,140)Return On Investment
(ROI)1.48Internal Rate of Return (IRR)21.0%Discount
Rate5.0%Risk-Free Rate1.0%Net Present Value50,191Duration
(3 year to maturity, 10% coupon Bond)2.7692Duration
(Project)2.0875Standard Deviation (Profit)Failure rate (Return
On Investment)Standard Deviation (IRR)Sharpe Ratio
(Applying Risk-Free Interest Rate)Sharpe Ratio (Applying
Expected Return on Investment)Average (Profit)Average
(IRR)#Business Indicators1.1Critical Success
FactorsIntroducing an individually controlled brand (utilization
in %), FY-10.85078125Introducing an individually controlled
brand (utilization in %), FY-20.9056703629Introducing an
individually controlled brand (utilization in %), FY-
30.9880040323Retention of critical technology personnel, FY-
11Retention of critical technology personnel, FY-21Retention
of critical technology personnel, FY-32Retention of critical
marketing personnel, FY-11Retention of critical marketing
personnel, FY-21Retention of critical marketing personnel,
FY-321.2Key Performance IndicatorsActual size of the local
market [units], FY-015000000Actual size of the local market
[units], FY-11.03Actual size of the local market [units], FY-
21.06Actual size of the local market [units], FY-31.1Actual size
of the local market [units], FY1+FY2+FY3Number of
customers- existing business [customers], FY-090000Number of
customers- existing business [customers], FY-1Number of
customers- existing business [customers], FY-2Number of
customers- existing business [customers], FY-3Number of
customers- existing business [customers],
FY1+FY2+FY3Average consumption per existing customer
[units], FY-02Average consumption per existing customer
[units], FY-1Average consumption per existing customer
[units], FY-2Average consumption per existing customer
[units], FY-3Average consumption per existing customer
[units], FY1+FY2+FY3Size of the penetrated market - without
new project [%], FY-0Size of the penetrated market - without
new project [%], FY-11.05Size of the penetrated market -
without new project [%], FY-21.1Size of the penetrated market
- without new project [%], FY-31.15Size of the penetrated
market - without new project [%], FY1+FY2+FY3* [units], FY-
0180000* [units], FY-1189000* [units], FY-2198000* [units],
FY-3207000* [units], FY1+FY2+FY3594000Projected increase
of the penetrated market - with new project [%], FY-0Projected
increase of the penetrated market - with new project [%], FY-
1Projected increase of the penetrated market - with new project
[%], FY-2Projected increase of the penetrated market - with
new project [%], FY-3Projected increase of the penetrated
market - with new project [%], FY1+FY2+FY32.2Projected
structure of the annual sales, new penetr. market [%], FY-
0Projected structure of the annual sales, new penetr. market
[%], FY-10.31Projected structure of the annual sales, new
penetr. market [%], FY-20.33Projected structure of the annual
sales, new penetr. market [%], FY-30.36Projected structure of
the annual sales, new penetr. market [%],
FY1+FY2+FY31Projected sales, new brand [units], FY-
0Projected sales, new brand [units], FY-1405108Projected sales,
new brand [units], FY-2431244Projected sales, new brand
[units], FY-3470448Projected sales, new brand [units],
FY1+FY2+FY31306800Projected consumption in the existing
business, new brand only [%], FY-0Projected consumption in
the existing business, new brand only [%], FY-10.31Projected
consumption in the existing business, new brand only [%], FY-
20.33Projected consumption in the existing business, new brand
only [%], FY-30.34Projected consumption in the existing
business, new brand only [%], FY1+FY2+FY30.3274** [units],
FY-0** [units], FY-1125583.48** [units], FY-2142310.52**
[units], FY-3159952.32** [units],
FY1+FY2+FY3427846.32Projected beer consumption (new
brand % of all) [%], FY-0Projected beer consumption (new
brand % of all) [%], FY-10.6644628571Projected beer
consumption (new brand % of all) [%], FY-20.71874Projected
beer consumption (new brand % of all) [%], FY-
30.7727165217Projected beer consumption (new brand % of all)
[%], FY1+FY2+FY3Wholesale distribution (new brand) [%],
FY-0Wholesale distribution (new brand) [%], FY-
10.69Wholesale distribution (new brand) [%], FY-
20.67Wholesale distribution (new brand) [%], FY-
30.66Wholesale distribution (new brand) [%],
FY1+FY2+FY30.6726*** [units], FY-0*** [units], FY-
1279524.52*** [units], FY-2288933.48*** [units], FY-
3310495.68*** [units], FY1+FY2+FY3878953.68Capacity of
the new technology (max units/year) [units], FY-
0476160Capacity of the new technology (max units/year)
[units], FY-1476160Capacity of the new technology (max
units/year) [units], FY-2476160Capacity of the new technology
(max units/year) [units], FY-3476160Capacity of the new
technology (max units/year) [units], FY1+FY2+FY32.0Private
Investment$150,000.002.1EmployeesOffice Assistants,
Budget$25,000.00Office Assistants, Number1Office Assistants,
Salary increase FY-21.11Office Assistants, FY-31.2Salesmen ,
Budget$67,500.00Salesmen , Number1.5Salesmen , Salary
increase FY-21.11Salesmen , FY-31.2Executive Salaries ,
Budget$32,500.00Executive Salaries , Number0.5Executive
Salaries , Salary increase FY-21.11Executive Salaries , FY-
31.2Miscellaneous (Consultants),
Budget$5,000.00Miscellaneous (Consultants), Salary increase
FY-21.11Miscellaneous (Consultants), FY-31.22.11Total
Salaries Budget, FY-1$130,000.002.12Total Salaries Budget,
FY-2$144,300.002.13Total Salaries Budget, FY-
3$173,160.002.2Range of compensations for critical
workersCritical Salesmen, Min$26,000.00Critical Salesmen,
Base$30,000.00Critical Salesmen, Market
Research$28,000.00Critical Salesmen, Max$32,000.00
Salesmen, Min$23,000.00 Salesmen, Base$24,000.00 Salesmen,
Market Research$25,000.00 Salesmen, Max$27,000.00Critical
Worker, Min$25,000.00Critical Worker, Base$30,000.00Critical
Worker, Market Research$29,000.00Critical Worker,
Max$32,000.00 Worker, Min$15,000.00 Worker,
Base$20,000.00 Worker, Market Research$20,000.00 Worker,
Max$22,000.002.3Utilities & OthersLeasing of cars,
computers, etc, Payment FY-1$8,000.00Leasing of cars,
computers, etc, Payment increase FY-21.11Leasing of cars,
computers, etc, FY-31.2Office Supply, Payment FY-
1$4,000.00Office Supply, Payment increase FY-21.11Office
Supply, FY-31.2Heat, Light, Phone, Payment FY-
1$7,000.00Heat, Light, Phone, Payment increase FY-21.11Heat,
Light, Phone, FY-31.2Insurance, Payment FY-
1$7,000.00Insurance, Payment increase FY-21.11Insurance,
FY-31.2Depreciation, Payment FY-1$7,500.00Depreciation,
Payment increase FY-21.9Depreciation, FY-30.92.31Total
Utilities Payments, FY-1$33,500.002.32Total Utilities
Payments, FY-2$43,110.002.33Total Utilities Payments, FY-
3$47,457.002.4Marketing CostsLocal Advertising, Payment FY-
1$35,000.00Local Advertising, Payment increase FY-
21.11Local Advertising, FY-31.2Trade Shows, Payment FY-
1$3,000.00Trade Shows, Payment increase FY-21.11Trade
Shows, FY-31.22.41Total Market Costs, FY-
1$38,000.002.42Total Market Costs, FY-2$42,180.002.43Total
Market Costs, FY-3$50,616.002.5RentOffice,
Payment$5,000.00Office, Space (ft^2)200Office, Payment
increase FY-21.11Office, FY-31.22.51Total Rent, FY-
1$5,000.002.52Total Rent, FY-2$5,550.002.53Total Rent, FY-
3$6,660.002.6DebtBank of America, Amount$40,000.00Bank of
America, Interest rate0.1Bank of America, length
(months)36Bank of America, payments/year12Bank of America,
Date startFY-1 Jan2.61Total Payments, FY-
1$15,391.302.62Total Payments, FY-2$15,391.302.63Total
Payments, FY-3$15,391.302.64Total
debt$40,000.002.70Depreciation2.701MACRS (15 yr schedule),
FY-15.00%2.710Tax Shelter, FY-1$2,625.002.711MACRS (15
yr schedule), FY-29.50%2.720Tax Shelter, FY-
2$4,987.502.721MACRS (15 yr schedule), FY-38.55%2.730Tax
Shelter, FY-3$4,488.752.8Financial Market IndicatorsExpected
Return on Investment $0.05Risk-Free Interest rate
$0.013.1Taxes3.11Profit, Percentage0.353.2 Fees3.21Total
Fees4.1Product Name & DescriptionBR01-01,
Distribution[retail]BR01-01, NamePilsnerBR01-01, Material
(per unit)0.56BR01-01, Labor (per unit)0.3BR01-01, Others
(per unit)0.3BR01-01, Price (per unit)$4.00BR01-01, Units
(Pints)1BR01-01, Cut off point 0.8BR01-01, Weight
(lb)1.05BR01-01, Weight (full) (lb)1.3BR01-01, Height
(inches)0BR01-01, Diameter (inches)0BR01-02,
Distribution[retail]BR01-02, NameBavarian LagerBR01-02,
Material (per unit)0.5BR01-02, Labor (per unit)0.3BR01-02,
Others (per unit)0.3BR01-02, Price (per unit)$4.00BR01-02,
Units (Pints)1BR01-02, Cut off point 0.8BR01-02, Weight
(lb)1.05BR01-02, Weight (full) (lb)1.3BR01-02, Height
(inches)0BR01-02, Diameter (inches)0BR01-03,
Distribution[retail]BR01-03, NameLight WheatBR01-03,
Material (per unit)0.5BR01-03, Labor (per unit)0.3BR01-03,
Others (per unit)0.3BR01-03, Price (per unit)$3.50BR01-03,
Units (Pints)1BR01-03, Cut off point 0.8BR01-03, Weight
(lb)1.05BR01-03, Weight (full) (lb)1.3BR01-03, Height
(inches)0BR01-03, Diameter (inches)0BR01-04,
Distribution[retail]BR01-04, NameRed WheatBR01-04,
Material (per unit)0.5BR01-04, Labor (per unit)0.3BR01-04,
Others (per unit)0.3BR01-04, Price (per unit)$3.50BR01-04,
Units (Pints)1BR01-04, Cut off point 0.8BR01-04, Weight
(lb)1.05BR01-04, Weight (full) (lb)1.3BR01-04, Height
(inches)0BR01-04, Diameter (inches)0BR01-05,
Distribution[retail]BR01-05, NamePale AleBR01-05, Material
(per unit)0.5BR01-05, Labor (per unit)0.3BR01-05, Others (per
unit)0.3BR01-05, Price (per unit)$3.50BR01-05, Units
(Pints)1BR01-05, Cut off point 0.8BR01-05, Weight
(lb)1.05BR01-05, Weight (full) (lb)1.3BR01-05, Height
(inches)0BR01-05, Diameter (inches)0BR01-06,
Distribution[retail]BR01-06, NameBock DarkBR01-06,
Material (per unit)0.5BR01-06, Labor (per unit)0.3BR01-06,
Others (per unit)0.3BR01-06, Price (per unit)$3.50BR01-06,
Units (Pints)1BR01-06, Cut off point 0.8BR01-06, Weight
(lb)1.05BR01-06, Weight (full) (lb)1.3BR01-06, Height
(inches)0BR01-06, Diameter (inches)0BR01-07,
Distribution[wholesale]BR01-07, NamePilsnerBR01-07,
Material (per unit)0.56BR01-07, Labor (per unit)0.24BR01-07,
Others (per unit)0.26BR01-07, Price (per unit)$1.25BR01-07,
Units (Pints)124BR01-07, Cut off point 0.8BR01-07, Weight
(lb)130.8BR01-07, Weight (full) (lb)160.5BR01-07, Height
(inches)23,3BR01-07, Diameter (inches)16BR01-08,
Distribution[wholesale]BR01-08, NameBavarian LagerBR01-
08, Material (per unit)0.56BR01-08, Labor (per unit)0.24BR01-
08, Others (per unit)0.26BR01-08, Price (per unit)$1.28BR01-
08, Units (Pints)124BR01-08, Cut off point 0.8BR01-08,
Weight (lb)130.8BR01-08, Weight (full) (lb)160.5BR01-08,
Height (inches)23.3BR01-08, Diameter (inches)16BR01-09,
Distribution[retail]BR01-09, NameSpecial OfferBR01-09,
Material (per unit)0.5225BR01-09, Labor (per unit)0.285BR01-
09, Others (per unit)0.29BR01-09, Price (per unit)$1.25BR01-
09, Units (Pints)1BR01-09, Cut off point 1BR01-09, Weight
(lb)1.05BR01-09, Weight (full) (lb)1.3BR01-09, Height
(inches)0BR01-09, Diameter (inches)05.1Targeted Marked
SizeBR01-01, [retail] FY-10.23BR01-01, [retail] FY-
128884.2004BR01-01, [retail] FY-20.24BR01-01, [retail] FY-
234154.5248BR01-01, [retail] FY-30.23BR01-01, [retail] FY-
336789.0336BR01-02, [retail] FY-10.25BR01-02, [retail] FY-
131395.87BR01-02, [retail] FY-20.23BR01-02, [retail] FY-
232731.4196BR01-02, [retail] FY-30.22BR01-02, [retail] FY-
335189.5104BR01-03, [retail] FY-10.14BR01-03, [retail] FY-
117581.6872BR01-03, [retail] FY-20.14BR01-03, [retail] FY-
219923.4728BR01-03, [retail] FY-30.15BR01-03, [retail] FY-
323992.848BR01-04, [retail] FY-10.12BR01-04, [retail] FY-
115070.0176BR01-04, [retail] FY-20.13BR01-04, [retail] FY-
218500.3676BR01-04, [retail] FY-30.13BR01-04, [retail] FY-
320793.8016BR01-05, [retail] FY-10.12BR01-05, [retail] FY-
115070.0176BR01-05, [retail] FY-20.13BR01-05, [retail] FY-
218500.3676BR01-05, [retail] FY-30.13BR01-05, [retail] FY-
320793.8016BR01-06, [retail] FY-10.14BR01-06, [retail] FY-
117581.6872BR01-06, [retail] FY-20.13BR01-06, [retail] FY-
218500.3676BR01-06, [retail] FY-30.14BR01-06, [retail] FY-
322393.3248BR01-07, [wholesale] FY-10.45BR01-07,
[wholesale] FY-1125786.034BR01-07, [wholesale] FY-
20.48BR01-07, [wholesale] FY-2138688.0704BR01-07,
[wholesale] FY-30.5BR01-07, [wholesale] FY-
3155247.84BR01-08, [wholesale] FY-10.55BR01-08,
[wholesale] FY-1153738.486BR01-08, [wholesale] FY-
20.52BR01-08, [wholesale] FY-2150245.4096BR01-08,
[wholesale] FY-30.5BR01-08, [wholesale] FY-
3155247.84BR01-09, [retail] FY-10BR01-09, [retail] FY-
10BR01-09, [retail] FY-20BR01-09, [retail] FY-20BR01-09,
[retail] FY-30BR01-09, [retail] FY-306.1Sales
ProjectionsBR01-01, FY-1 Jan1809.9551569507BR01-01, FY-1
Feb1809.9551569507BR01-01, FY-1 Mar1834.040895813BR01-
01, FY-1 Apr1852.5301204819BR01-01, FY-1
May2310.736032BR01-01, FY-1 Jun2778.7951807229BR01-01,
FY-1 Jul2778.7951807229BR01-01, FY-1
Aug2788.3937823834BR01-01, FY-1
Sep2788.3937823834BR01-01, FY-1
Oct2783.9554317549BR01-01, FY-1
Nov1852.5301204819BR01-01, FY-1
Dec1852.5301204819BR01-01, FY-2
Jan2225.3940066593BR01-01, FY-2
Feb2225.3940066593BR01-01, FY-2
Mar2214.0289855073BR01-01, FY-2
Apr2205.2694610778BR01-01, FY-2
May2695.3293413174BR01-01, FY-2 Jun3415.45248BR01-01,
FY-2 Jul3415.45248BR01-01, FY-2
Aug3378.3281733746BR01-01, FY-2
Sep3378.3281733746BR01-01, FY-2
Oct3402.4390243902BR01-01, FY-2
Nov2205.2694610778BR01-01, FY-2
Dec2205.2694610778BR01-01, FY-3 Jan2471.196869027BR01-
01, FY-3 Feb2471.196869027BR01-01, FY-3
Mar2417.1021603229BR01-01, FY-3 Apr2575.232352BR01-01,
FY-3 May2850.6026457619BR01-01, FY-3
Jun3563.2533072023BR01-01, FY-3 Jul3563.2533072023BR01-
01, FY-3 Aug3678.90336BR01-01, FY-3 Sep3678.90336BR01-
01, FY-3 Oct3516.5185856754BR01-01, FY-3
Nov2575.232352BR01-01, FY-3 Dec2575.232352BR01-02, FY-
1 Jan1708.4444444444BR01-02, FY-1
Feb1708.4444444444BR01-02, FY-1 Mar1883.7522BR01-02,
FY-1 Apr2102.8446389497BR01-02, FY-1 May2511.6696BR01-
02, FY-1 Jun3139.587BR01-02, FY-1 Jul3139.587BR01-02, FY-
1 Aug3323.9064089522BR01-02, FY-1
Sep3323.9064089522BR01-02, FY-1
Oct3364.5514223195BR01-02, FY-1
Nov2102.8446389497BR01-02, FY-1
Dec2147.2956197907BR01-02, FY-2 Jan1798.88595613BR01-
02, FY-2 Feb1798.88595613BR01-02, FY-2
Mar1963.885176BR01-02, FY-2 Apr2218.14753712BR01-02,
FY-2 May2618.513568BR01-02, FY-2
Jun3105.4065519679BR01-02, FY-2 Jul3105.4065519679BR01-
02, FY-2 Aug3508.9203899755BR01-02, FY-2
Sep3508.9203899755BR01-02, FY-2
Oct3549.0360593919BR01-02, FY-2 Nov2218.14753712BR01-
02, FY-2 Dec2218.14753712BR01-02, FY-3
Jan2111.370624BR01-02, FY-3 Feb2111.370624BR01-02, FY-3
Mar2062.1739130435BR01-02, FY-3
Apr2291.3043478261BR01-02, FY-3
May2749.5652173913BR01-02, FY-3
Jun3436.9565217391BR01-02, FY-3 Jul3436.9565217391BR01-
02, FY-3 Aug3839.7792088317BR01-02, FY-3
Sep3839.7792088317BR01-02, FY-3 Oct3870.846144BR01-02,
FY-3 Nov2291.3043478261BR01-02, FY-3
Dec2291.3043478261BR01-03, FY-1 Jan0BR01-03, FY-1
Feb0BR01-03, FY-1 Mar1054.901232BR01-03, FY-1
Apr1230.718104BR01-03, FY-1 May1240BR01-03, FY-1
Jun1240BR01-03, FY-1 Jul1240BR01-03, FY-1 Aug1240BR01-
03, FY-1 Sep1240BR01-03, FY-1 Oct1240BR01-03, FY-1
Nov1230.718104BR01-03, FY-1 Dec1230.718104BR01-03, FY-
2 Jan996.17364BR01-03, FY-2 Feb996.17364BR01-03, FY-2
Mar1195.408368BR01-03, FY-2 Apr1240BR01-03, FY-2
May1240BR01-03, FY-2 Jun1240BR01-03, FY-2 Jul1240BR01-
03, FY-2 Aug2390.816736BR01-03, FY-2
Sep2390.816736BR01-03, FY-2 Oct1240BR01-03, FY-2
Nov1240BR01-03, FY-2 Dec1240BR01-03, FY-3
Jan1199.6424BR01-03, FY-3 Feb1199.6424BR01-03, FY-3
Mar1240BR01-03, FY-3 Apr1240BR01-03, FY-3
May1240BR01-03, FY-3 Jun2399.2848BR01-03, FY-3
Jul2399.2848BR01-03, FY-3 Aug2480BR01-03, FY-3
Sep2480BR01-03, FY-3 Oct2480BR01-03, FY-3 Nov1240BR01-
03, FY-3 Dec1240BR01-04, FY-1 Jan0BR01-04, FY-1
Feb0BR01-04, FY-1 Mar0BR01-04, FY-1
Apr1054.901232BR01-04, FY-1 May1205.601408BR01-04, FY-
1 Jun1240BR01-04, FY-1 Jul1240BR01-04, FY-1
Aug1240BR01-04, FY-1 Sep1240BR01-04, FY-1 Oct1240BR01-
04, FY-1 Nov1054.901232BR01-04, FY-1
Dec1054.901232BR01-04, FY-2 Jan0BR01-04, FY-2 Feb0BR01-
04, FY-2 Mar1110.022056BR01-04, FY-2 Apr1240BR01-04,
FY-2 May1240BR01-04, FY-2 Jun1240BR01-04, FY-2
Jul1240BR01-04, FY-2 Aug1240BR01-04, FY-2 Sep1240BR01-
04, FY-2 Oct1240BR01-04, FY-2 Nov1240BR01-04, FY-2
Dec1240BR01-04, FY-3 Jan1039.69008BR01-04, FY-3
Feb1039.69008BR01-04, FY-3 Mar1240BR01-04, FY-3
Apr1240BR01-04, FY-3 May1240BR01-04, FY-3
Jun1240BR01-04, FY-3 Jul1240BR01-04, FY-3 Aug2480BR01-
04, FY-3 Sep2480BR01-04, FY-3 Oct2287.318176BR01-04,
FY-3 Nov1240BR01-04, FY-3 Dec1240BR01-05, FY-1
Jan0BR01-05, FY-1 Feb0BR01-05, FY-1 Mar0BR01-05, FY-1
Apr1054.901232BR01-05, FY-1 May1205.601408BR01-05, FY-
1 Jun1240BR01-05, FY-1 Jul1240BR01-05, FY-1
Aug1240BR01-05, FY-1 Sep1240BR01-05, FY-1 Oct1240BR01-
05, FY-1 Nov1054.901232BR01-05, FY-1
Dec1054.901232BR01-05, FY-2 Jan0BR01-05, FY-2 Feb0BR01-
05, FY-2 Mar1110.022056BR01-05, FY-2 Apr1240BR01-05,
FY-2 May1240BR01-05, FY-2 Jun1240BR01-05, FY-2
Jul1240BR01-05, FY-2 Aug1240BR01-05, FY-2 Sep1240BR01-
05, FY-2 Oct1240BR01-05, FY-2 Nov1240BR01-05, FY-2
Dec1240BR01-05, FY-3 Jan1039.69008BR01-05, FY-3
Feb1039.69008BR01-05, FY-3 Mar1240BR01-05, FY-3
Apr1240BR01-05, FY-3 May1240BR01-05, FY-3
Jun1240BR01-05, FY-3 Jul1240BR01-05, FY-3 Aug2480BR01-
05, FY-3 Sep2480BR01-05, FY-3 Oct2287.318176BR01-05,
FY-3 Nov1240BR01-05, FY-3 Dec1240BR01-06, FY-1
Jan0BR01-06, FY-1 Feb0BR01-06, FY-1
Mar1054.901232BR01-06, FY-1 Apr1230.718104BR01-06, FY-
1 May1240BR01-06, FY-1 Jun1240BR01-06, FY-1
Jul1240BR01-06, FY-1 Aug1240BR01-06, FY-1 Sep1240BR01-
06, FY-1 Oct1240BR01-06, FY-1 Nov1230.718104BR01-06,
FY-1 Dec1230.718104BR01-06, FY-2 Jan0BR01-06, FY-2
Feb0BR01-06, FY-2 Mar1110.022056BR01-06, FY-2
Apr1240BR01-06, FY-2 May1240BR01-06, FY-2
Jun1240BR01-06, FY-2 Jul1240BR01-06, FY-2 Aug1240BR01-
06, FY-2 Sep1240BR01-06, FY-2 Oct1240BR01-06, FY-2
Nov1240BR01-06, FY-2 Dec1240BR01-06, FY-3
Jan1119.66624BR01-06, FY-3 Feb1119.66624BR01-06, FY-3
Mar1240BR01-06, FY-3 Apr1240BR01-06, FY-3
May1240BR01-06, FY-3 Jun2239.33248BR01-06, FY-3
Jul2239.33248BR01-06, FY-3 Aug2480BR01-06, FY-3
Sep2480BR01-06, FY-3 Oct2463.265728BR01-06, FY-3
Nov1240BR01-06, FY-3 Dec1240BR01-07, FY-1
Jan5630.0448430493BR01-07, FY-1
Feb5630.0448430493BR01-07, FY-1
Mar6845.9591041869BR01-07, FY-1
Apr8067.4698795181BR01-07, FY-1 May10062.88272BR01-07,
FY-1 Jun12101.2048192771BR01-07, FY-1
Jul12101.2048192771BR01-07, FY-1
Aug14571.6062176166BR01-07, FY-1
Sep14571.6062176166BR01-07, FY-1
Oct13336.0445682451BR01-07, FY-1
Nov8067.4698795181BR01-07, FY-1
Dec8067.4698795181BR01-07, FY-2
Jan6454.6059933407BR01-07, FY-2
Feb6454.6059933407BR01-07, FY-2
Mar7705.9710144928BR01-07, FY-2
Apr8954.7305389221BR01-07, FY-2
May10944.6706586826BR01-07, FY-2 Jun13868.80704BR01-
07, FY-2 Jul13868.80704BR01-07, FY-2
Aug16461.6718266254BR01-07, FY-2
Sep16461.6718266254BR01-07, FY-2
Oct15197.5609756098BR01-07, FY-2
Nov8954.7305389221BR01-07, FY-2
Dec8954.7305389221BR01-07, FY-3 Jan7448.803130973BR01-
07, FY-3 Feb7448.803130973BR01-07, FY-3
Mar8742.8978396771BR01-07, FY-3 Apr10867.3488BR01-07,
FY-3 May12029.3973542381BR01-07, FY-3
Jun15036.7466927976BR01-07, FY-3
Jul15036.7466927976BR01-07, FY-3 Aug18629.7408BR01-07,
FY-3 Sep18629.7408BR01-07, FY-3
Oct16323.4814143246BR01-07, FY-3 Nov10867.3488BR01-07,
FY-3 Dec10867.3488BR01-08, FY-1
Jan6971.5555555556BR01-08, FY-1
Feb6971.5555555556BR01-08, FY-1 Mar9224.30916BR01-08,
FY-1 Apr10297.1553610503BR01-08, FY-1
May12299.07888BR01-08, FY-1 Jun15373.8486BR01-08, FY-1
Jul15373.8486BR01-08, FY-1 Aug17756.0935910478BR01-08,
FY-1 Sep17756.0935910478BR01-08, FY-1
Oct16475.4485776805BR01-08, FY-1
Nov10297.1553610503BR01-08, FY-1
Dec9012.7043802093BR01-08, FY-2 Jan6881.11404387BR01-
08, FY-2 Feb6881.11404387BR01-08, FY-2
Mar9014.724576BR01-08, FY-2 Apr10181.85246288BR01-08,
FY-2 May12019.632768BR01-08, FY-2
Jun14254.5934480321BR01-08, FY-2
Jul14254.5934480321BR01-08, FY-2
Aug17571.0796100245BR01-08, FY-2
Sep17571.0796100245BR01-08, FY-2
Oct16290.9639406081BR01-08, FY-2
Nov10181.85246288BR01-08, FY-2 Dec10181.85246288BR01-
08, FY-3 Jan7762.392BR01-08, FY-3 Feb7762.392BR01-08,
FY-3 Mar9097.8260869565BR01-08, FY-3
Apr10108.6956521739BR01-08, FY-3
May12130.4347826087BR01-08, FY-3
Jun15163.0434782609BR01-08, FY-3
Jul15163.0434782609BR01-08, FY-3
Aug18480.2207911684BR01-08, FY-3
Sep18480.2207911684BR01-08, FY-3 Oct17077.2624BR01-08,
FY-3 Nov10108.6956521739BR01-08, FY-3
Dec10108.6956521739BR01-09, FY-1 Jan0BR01-09, FY-1
Feb86.5644BR01-09, FY-1 Mar422.136176BR01-09, FY-1
Apr388.761328BR01-09, FY-1 May164.429952BR01-09, FY-1
Jun86.5644BR01-09, FY-1 Jul86.5644BR01-09, FY-1
Aug0BR01-09, FY-1 Sep0BR01-09, FY-1 Oct0BR01-09, FY-1
Nov388.761328BR01-09, FY-1 Dec388.761328BR01-09, FY-2
Jan243.82636BR01-09, FY-2 Feb243.82636BR01-09, FY-2
Mar615.915712BR01-09, FY-2 Apr0BR01-09, FY-2
May241.853664BR01-09, FY-2 Jun75.74048BR01-09, FY-2
Jul75.74048BR01-09, FY-2 Aug89.183264BR01-09, FY-2
Sep89.183264BR01-09, FY-2 Oct0BR01-09, FY-2 Nov0BR01-
09, FY-2 Dec0BR01-09, FY-3 Jan607.548576BR01-09, FY-3
Feb607.548576BR01-09, FY-3 Mar0BR01-09, FY-3
Apr197.418848BR01-09, FY-3 May0BR01-09, FY-3
Jun321.38272BR01-09, FY-3 Jul321.38272BR01-09, FY-3
Aug11.35584BR01-09, FY-3 Sep11.35584BR01-09, FY-3
Oct533.989376BR01-09, FY-3 Nov197.418848BR01-09, FY-3
Dec197.4188486.21Percent Monthly Demand by Year, FY-
1BR01-01, Jan0.07BR01-01, Feb0.07BR01-01, Mar0.07BR01-
01, Apr0.07BR01-01, May0.08BR01-01, Jun0.1BR01-01,
Jul0.1BR01-01, Aug0.1BR01-01, Sep0.1BR01-01, Oct0.1BR01-
01, Nov0.07BR01-01, Dec0.07BR01-02, Jan0.06BR01-02,
Feb0.06BR01-02, Mar0.06BR01-02, Apr0.07BR01-02,
May0.08BR01-02, Jun0.1BR01-02, Jul0.1BR01-02,
Aug0.11BR01-02, Sep0.11BR01-02, Oct0.11BR01-02,
Audit Risk ModelSteps in the Audit Process1. Clien.docx
Audit Risk ModelSteps in the Audit Process1. Clien.docx
Audit Risk ModelSteps in the Audit Process1. Clien.docx
Audit Risk ModelSteps in the Audit Process1. Clien.docx
Audit Risk ModelSteps in the Audit Process1. Clien.docx
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Audit Risk ModelSteps in the Audit Process1. Clien.docx
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Audit Risk ModelSteps in the Audit Process1. Clien.docx
Audit Risk ModelSteps in the Audit Process1. Clien.docx
Audit Risk ModelSteps in the Audit Process1. Clien.docx
Audit Risk ModelSteps in the Audit Process1. Clien.docx
Audit Risk ModelSteps in the Audit Process1. Clien.docx
Audit Risk ModelSteps in the Audit Process1. Clien.docx
Audit Risk ModelSteps in the Audit Process1. Clien.docx
Audit Risk ModelSteps in the Audit Process1. Clien.docx
Audit Risk ModelSteps in the Audit Process1. Clien.docx
Audit Risk ModelSteps in the Audit Process1. Clien.docx
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  • 1. Audit Risk Model Steps in the Audit Process 1. Client acceptance and retention 2. Planning and understanding the client Understand client strategies and business processes (strategic and process analyses) Risk Assessments Planning analytics 3. Plan tests of financial statement assertions 4. Perform tests of financial statement assertions Tests of control operating effectiveness and substantive tests 5. Wrapping up the audit 6. Audit reporting 2 Why is Risk Management So Critical to Auditors? Fundamental to Client Acceptance: Auditors only accept clients that have effectively managed risks unless willing to share in the costs associated with poor client risk management Fundamental to Resource Allocation:
  • 2. Auditors perform more tests related to aspects of the client presenting the highest risk exposure to the fair presentation of the financial statements 客户接受的基础:审计师只接受有效管理风险的客户,除非愿意分担与客户风险 管理不良相关的成本 资源分配的基础:审计师执行更多与客户方面相关的测试,这些客户对财务报表 的公允列报具有最高风险 3 Audit Risk Model AR = IR × CR × DR AR: Audit Risk IR: Inherent Risk CR: Control Risk DR: Detection Risk RMM: Risk of Material Misstatement RMM Inherent Risk: the risk of a MATERIAL misstatement assuming no internal controls. Control Risk: the risk of the internal control failing to detect a MATERIAL misstatement.
  • 3. Detection Risk: the risk of the audit procedures failing to detect a MATERIAL misstatement Audit Risk Model 内在风险:假设没有内部控制,重大错报的风险。 控制风险:内部控制未能发现重大错报的风险。 发现风险:审计程序未能发现重大错报的风险 5 Audit Risk (AR) Risk the auditor expresses an inappropriate opinion The auditor determines what level of AR is acceptable for a given client Distribution of ownership Business risk to audit firm Client size Litigation environment AR = IR × CR × DR RMM 审核员确定给定客户可接受的AR级别 所有权分配 审计公司的业务风险 客户规模 诉讼环境 6
  • 4. What is Appropriate Audit Risk? Due Professional Care: Methods for Minimizing Audit Risk There is a trade-off: Maximum such that opinion can be issued without much risk that financial statements are materially misstated. Relationship between audit risk and the need for evidence is inverse Risk of Material Misstatement (RMM) Not directly influenced by auditor Assessed by the auditors Risk that financial statements are materially misstated prior to audit AR = IR × CR × DR RMM 不直接受审计师的影响 由审计员评估 在审计之前财务报表存在重大错报的风险 8
  • 5. Inherent Risk (IR) Susceptibility of an assertion to material misstatement (individually or in aggregate) Assumes no related internal controls Important factors Client’s business Management’s integrity Client competence Rush to produce financial statements Pressure to hit key metrics Number and nature of related parties Routineness of transactions AR = IR × CR × DR RMM 声明对重大错报的敏感性(单独或合计) 假设没有相关的内部控制 重要因素 客户的业务 管理层的诚信 客户能力 急于编制财务报表 达到关键指标的压力 关联方的数量和性质 交易的常规性 9 Control Risk (CR)
  • 6. Risk that internal control won’t prevent or detect and correct a material misstatement (individually or in aggregate) Assessment based on understanding of client and testing of internal control Auditor may choose to assess control risk at maximum and forgo testing for private clients Important factors Control environment (tone at the top) Board of directors and audit committee Internal audit Effectiveness of accounting system Strength of internal control system AR = IR × CR × DR RMM 内部控制不会阻止或发现和纠正重大错报的风险(单独或汇总) 基于对客户的理解和内部控制测试的评估 审计员可以选择最大限度地评估控制风险,并为私人客户进行放弃测试 重要因素 控制环境(顶部音调) 董事会和审计委员会 内部审计 会计制度的有效性 内部控制系统的优势 10 Detection Risk (DR) Risk that auditor fails to detect a material misstatement (individually or in aggregate) Directly influenced by the auditor Auditors reduce DR by increasing the quantity and quality of
  • 7. their testing Two primary components Substantive analytical procedures Tests of details Auditors control AR through DR AR = IR × CR × DR RMM 实质性分析程序 测试细节 11 12 Auditors use this relationship during the planning phase to determine the nature, extent, and timing of evidence to gather for audit testing. Thus, auditors look at this relationship as follows: Evidence __AR__ = DR IR x CR Amounts can be expressed in Relative Terms (H, M, L) Inverse Audit Risk Model
  • 8. 审计师在规划阶段使用这种关系来确定收集审计测试的证据的性质,范围和时间 。 因此,审计师将这种关系看作如下 13 Relationship between inherent risk and need for evidence is ________ . Relationship between control risk and need for evidence is ________. Interaction of Inherent and Control Risks: RMM direct direct Components of the Traditional Risk Model Ramifications of Detection Risk Assessments Relationship to Need for Evidence is _________ Low Detection Risk (High IR x CR and Sufficiently Low AR): Tests of the Account Balance and/or Transactions generated by Business Process Necessary
  • 9. High Detection Risk (Low IR x CR and Sufficiently High AR) Test of Process Controls and Analytical Evidence Sufficient inverse Reduce (achieved) detection risk by Business Risk Auditing: The Ultimate Goal: Achieved Audit Risk_____Acceptable Audit Risk Increasing substantive audit procedures Detection Risk is Lowest for Accounts Impacted by Processes with High Residual Business Process Risk Audit Risk Model 增加实质审计程序 对于具有高剩余业务流程风险的流程影响的帐户,检测风险最低 16 Applying the ARMPlanned ARIRCRRMMAggregate testingDRExample 1LowHighHighAmount of testing HIGH HIGH
  • 10. HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH LOW Low for control percejudt 17 Applying the ARMPlanned ARIRCRRMMAggregate testingDRExample 2LowHighLowAmount of testing MOD HIGH HIGH LOW MOD MOD-HIGH LOW-MOD
  • 11. Applying the ARMPlanned ARIRCRRMMAggregate testingDRExample 3HighLowHighAmount of testing MOD LOW LOW HIGH MOD LOW -MOD MOD - HIGH 19 Sampling Risk vs. Non-Sampling Risk Non-sampling Risk Analyses of past alleged audit failures indicate that such non- sampling risk factors … are among the most significant audit risk factors and sources of auditor liability.
  • 12. Montgomery’s Auditing, 10th Edition [1985] * 07/16/96 * ## 抽样风险与非抽样风险对过去涉嫌审计失败的分析表明,此类非抽样风险因素.... ..是最重要的审计风险因素和审计师责任来源。 Sampling vs. Non-Sampling Risk Detection risk (DR) is a function of sampling risk (SR) and non- sampling risk (NSR). SR arises from the possibility that the auditor’s conclusion would change if audit procedures were applied to the entire population. NSR arises from factors that cause the auditor to reach an erroneous conclusion for any reason other than the size of the sample (ISAs). Judgment errors (e.g., biases) * 07/16/96 * ## 检测风险(DR)是抽样风险(SR)和非抽样风险(NSR)的函数。
  • 13. 如果审计程序适用于整个人口,审计师的结论可能会发生变化,从而产生SR。 NSR源于导致审核员因样本量(ISA)以外的任何原因而得出错误结论的因素 。 判断错误(例如,偏见) Sources of Non-sampling Risk Auditors’ belief formation and revision may be faulty, resulting in inaccurate assessment(s) of any component of the audit risk model. Misinterpretation or misapplication of accounting principles and auditing standards. Failure to obtain an understanding of the entity and its environment sufficient for assessing the components of audit risk. Failure to obtain sufficient, appropriate audit evidence when responding to preliminary assessments初步评估 of such components. * 07/16/96 * ## 审计师的信念形成和修订可能有误,导致审计风险模型的任何组成部分的评估不 准确。 会计原则和审计标准的误解或误用。 未能充分了解实体及其环境,足以评估审计风险的组成部分。 在回应对这些组成部分的初步评估时未能获得充分,适当的审计证据。 Guidance on Non-sampling Risk
  • 14. U.S. authoritative guidance does not explicitly represent it in the ARM, instead suggests that risk can be reduced to a negligible level 降低到可忽略的风险through appropriate planning, supervision and quality control mechanisms. NSR could be a source of detection risk that produces distorted assessments of RMM and DR. * 07/16/96 * ## 美国权威指南没有在ARM中明确表示,而是建议通过适当的规划,监督和质量 控制机制将风险降低到可以忽略的程度。 NSR可能是检测风险的来源,导致对RMM和DR的扭曲评估。 (1) Recursive Risk Assessment: SSA auditors manage NSR by viewing the entire audit as a recursive process of evidence- driven, belief-based assessment. That is, auditors should continually update their risk assessments as they gather evidence. (2) Self-criticism: Auditors should be skeptical of their own judgment and decision making ability and consider the potential fallibility of their judgments. Reducing NSR
  • 15. * 07/16/96 * ## (1)递归风险评估:SSA审核员通过将整个审核视为以证据为基础,基于信念 的评估的递归过程来管理NSR。 也就是说,审核员在收集证据时应不断更新风险评估。 (2)自我批评:审计师应该对自己的判断和决策能力持怀疑态度,并考虑他们 判断的潜在可能性。 (3) Non-Financial KPI’s: Auditors should consider KPI’s that the client uses to run its business but not typically used in financial reporting. Google example: cost per click, click through rates, search usage, etc. These KPI’s help the auditor form expectations for financial statement assertions AND are less prone to management manipulation. Divergence of these KPI’s with F/S performance is highly associated with fraud (Brazel et al.2006) (3)非财务关键绩效指标:审计师应考虑客户用于经营业务的关键绩效指标, 但通常不用于财务报告。 Google示例:每次点击费用,点击率,搜索使用情况等。 这些KPI有助于审计师形成对财务报表断言的期望,并且不太容易受到管理层的 操纵。 这些KPI与F / S表现的分歧与欺诈密切相关 26
  • 16. Team OakFresh Pond BrewPub.xlsm Project-IDSEMESTER:Spring 2019PROJECT TITLE:Fresh Pond BrewPubPROJECT LOCATION:CambridgeSTUDENT NAME:Team OakADVISOR:Dr. Vladimir ZlatevDATE OF SUBMISSION:Wednesday, April 24, 2019 &8&K002060BU MET AD715 OL: Quantitative and Qualitative Decision-Making &8&K002060Business Simulation: Strategies and Decision Support in Organizations &8&K002060Copyright 2012 by Dr. Vladimir Zlatev All Rights Reserved &8&K002060&F &8&K002060&A &8&K002060&P Business Simulation: Strategies and Decision Support in Organizations Title-PageSEMESTER:Spring 2019PROJECT TITLE:Fresh Pond BrewPubLOCATION:CambridgeSTUDENT NAME:Team OakADVISOR:Dr. Vladimir ZlatevDATE OF SUBMISSION:4/24/19Copyright:Disclaimer: &"Geneva,Bold"&8&K3F33D9BU MET AD715 OL: Quantitative and Qualitative Decision-Making &"Geneva,Bold"&8&K3F33D9 Strategies and Decision Support in Organizations &"Geneva,Bold"&8&K3F33D9Coppyright 2012 - 2014 By Dr. Vladimir Zlatev All Rights Reserved &"Geneva,Bold"&8&K002060&F © 2012 -2014 Dr. Vladimir Zlatev, All rights reserved.
  • 17. This program simulation package is designed to illustrate different managerial decision making concepts and to offer hands-on experience to the students who are taking the graduate course AD 715 Quantitative and Qualitative Decision-Making at Boston University, Metropolitan College. The program simulation package is property of and is provided by Dr. Vladimir Zlatev. Permission to use, copy and distribute this simulation without fee is hereby granted, provided that the above copyright notice appear in all copies and that both the copyright and this notice appear in supporting documentation, and that the name Dr. Vladimir Zlatev not be used in advertising or publicity pertaining to distribution of this documentation without specific, written permission.. HelpHelp MenuA. Navigation within the business simulationE. Page '36-Mo-Fin-Pr'H. Page 'Mktg-Mgt'testI. Page 'Inn-Mgt'F. Page 'Performance'B. Introduction to the business simulationJ. Page 'Oper-Mgt'Tutorial to the Business Simulation 'Strategies and Decision Support in Organizations'G. Page 'D-Analysis'C. Page 'Project-ID'K. Page 'Fin-Mgt'Yellow cells indicate fields you should edit; others are not editable.L. Page 'Org-Mgt'D. Page 'Project-Start'A. Navigation within the business simulation1.Simulation software: installation requirements2.Layouts 3.Tab ‘Sim-Navigator’4.Task List5.Force Calculation6.Submit Results7.Choose cycle to calculate8.Export9.Go Back to ‘Sim-Navigator’10.Indicator: Current Cycle11.HelpD. Page 'Project-Start'1.Critical Success Factors (CSF)2.Key Performance Indicators (KPI)E. Page '36- Mo-Fin-Pr'1.Sales Projection2.Prices and Variable Costs per product3.Annual fixed costs4.12 month Proforma5.Financial summary: per FY and overallF. Page 'Performance'1.Key Success Indicators2.Key Performance Indicators3.Efficiency Ratios4.Trend AnalysisG. Page 'D-Analysis'1.Break-Even Analysis2.What-if Analysis3.Sensitivity Analysis*LINK TO TUTORIAL HERE*4.Optimization Analysis*LINK TO TUTORIAL HERE*5.Risk AnalysisH. Page 'Mktg- Mgt'1.Marketing Costs2.Product Description3.Targeted Market
  • 18. Size4.Sales ProjectionsI. Page 'Inn-Mgt'1.Product Name & DescriptionJ. Page 'Oper-Mgt'1.Forecast for the nest three years2.Targeted Market Size3.Sales ProjectionK. Page 'Fin- Mgt'1.Miscellaneous Factors2.DebtL. Page 'Org- Mgt'1.Employess2.Employee Compensation http://probarserv.com/quantities-for-beer-and-wine-bar.html) Sim-Navigatorcurrent cycle0Permission for next CycleNoCurrent Decision CycleConformation Last cycle endC = 0YesCurrent Input Parameters tableWhich Section in changetable in process is N/AN/ACycle In calculation0Permision to create printoutsNoPasswordsVZ- StartVZ-MCSChosen underlying cycle0comments:Inputs from MS Excel to be used for MS Project(we will provide a demo)OPTIONAL for studentsCheck &8&K002060BU MET AD715 OL: Quantitative and Qualitative Decision-Making &8&K002060Business Simulation: Strategies and Decision Support in Organizations &8&K002060Copyright 2012 by Dr. Vladimir Zlatev All Rights Reserved &8&K002060&F &8&K002060&A &8&K002060&P Sim-Navigator ? test YES NO A. Navigation within the business simulation B. Introduction to the business simulation C. Page 'Project-ID' D. Page 'Project-Start' E. Page 'Mktg-Mgt' F. Page 'Inn-Mgt' G. Page 'Oper-Mgt' H. Page 'Fin-Mgt'
  • 19. I. Page 'Org-Mgt' J. Page '36-Mo-Fin-Pr' K. Page 'Performance' L. Page 'D-Analysis' M. Page 'Impl-Plan' N. Page 'Sim-Report' O. Page 'Printout Reports' Project-Start1OVERALL BUSINESS PARAMETERS OF THE PROJECT (BUSINESS UNIT: next 36 Months of Operations)1.1Critical Success FactorsFY-0FY-1FY-2FY- 3FY1+FY2+FY3CSF 1:Introducing an individually controlled brand (utilization in %)[%]85.08%90.57%98.80%91.48%CSF 2:Retention of critical technology personnel[number]112CSF 3:Retention of critical marketing personnel[number]1121.2Key Performance IndicatorsFY-0FY-1FY-2FY-3FY1+FY2+FY3KPI 1:Actual size of the local market[units]15,000,000103.00%106.00%110.00%KPI 2:Number of customers- existing business[customers]90,000KPI 3:Average consumption per existing customer[units]2.00KPI 4:Size of the penetrated market - without new project[%]105.00%110.00%115.00%*[units]180,000189,000198 ,000207,000594,000KPI 5:Projected increase of the penetrated market - with new project[%]220%KPI 6:Projected structure of the annual sales, new penetr. market[%]31.00%33.00%36.00%100.00%Projected sales, new brand[units]405,108431,244470,4481,306,800KPI 7:Projected consumption in the existing business, new brand only[%]31.0%33.0%34.0%32.74%**[units]125,583142,311159, 952427,846Projected beer consumption (new brand % of all)[%]66%72%77%Wholesale distribution (new brand)[%]69.00%67.00%66.00%67.26%***[units]279,525288,9 33310,496878,954KPI 8:Capacity of the new technology (max units/year)[units]476,160476,160476,160476,1602FIXED- COST2.0Initial InvestmentEquipment$ 150,000Total$
  • 20. 150,0002.1EmployeesSalary increasePositionBudgetNumberFY- 2FY-3Office Assistants$ 25,00011.111.2Salesmen $ 67,5001.51.111.2Executive Salaries $ 32,5000.51.111.2Miscellaneous (Consultants)$ 5,0001.111.2FY-1FY-2FY- 3Total$130,000$144,300$173,1602.2Range of compensations for critical workersPositionImportanceMinBaseMarket ResearchMaxSalesmenCritical$26,000$30,000$28,000$32,000S alesmen$23,000$24,000$25,000$27,000WorkerCritical$25,000$ 30,000$29,000$32,000Worker$15,000$20,000$20,000$22,0002. 3Utilities, Supplies and othersPaymentPayment increaseFY- 1FY-2FY-3Leasing of cars, computers, etc$ 8,0001.111.2Office Supply$ 4,0001.111.2Heat, Light, Phone$ 7,0001.111.2Insurance$ 7,0001.111.2Depreciation$ 7,5001.90.9FY-1FY-2FY- 3Total$33,500$43,110$47,4572.4Marketing costsPaymentPayment increaseFY-1FY-2FY-3Local Advertising$ 35,0001.111.2Trade Shows$ 3,0001.111.2Total$38,000$42,180$50,6162.5RentPayment increasePaymentSpace (ft^2)FY-2FY-3Office$ 5,0002001.111.2WarehouseFY-1FY-2FY- 3Total$5,000$5,550$6,6602.6DebtLoanAmountInterest ratelength (months)payments/yearDate startBank of America$40,00010.0%3612FY-1 JanFY-1FY-2FY-3Total DebtTotal$15,391$15,391$15,391$40,0002.7DepreciationFY- 1FY-2FY-3MACRS (15 yr schedule)5.00%9.50%8.55%Tax Shelter$2,625$4,987.50$4,488.752.8Financial Market IndicatorsPercentageExpected Return on Investment5.0%Risk- Free Interest rate1.0%3TAXES & FEES3.1TaxesTaxes typePercentageProfit35.00%3.2FeesTypeAmmountlicense to sell alcoholTotal4PRODUCT DESCRIPTION4.1. Product Name & Description Variable CostsMaterial LaborOthersPriceUnitsCut off pointWeightWeight (full)HeightDiameterProduct IDDistributionName(per unit)(per unit)(per unit)(per unit)(Pints)(lb)(lb)(inches)(inches)BR01- 01[retail]Pilsner0.560.300.30$4.0010.81.051.300NOTES:BR01-
  • 21. 02[retail]Bavarian Lager0.500.300.30$4.0010.81.051.300(i)one pint = 16 oz = 473.1765 mlBR01-03[retail]Light Wheat0.500.300.30$3.5010.81.051.300(ii)one keg = 124 pintsBR01-04[retail]Red Wheat0.500.300.30$3.5010.81.051.300(iii)one barrel = 31 gallonsBR01-05[retail]Pale Ale0.500.300.30$3.5010.81.051.300BR01-06[retail]Bock Dark0.500.300.30$3.5010.81.051.300BR01- 07[wholesale]Pilsner0.560.240.26$1.251240.8130.8160.523,316 BR01-08[wholesale]Bavarian Lager0.560.240.26$1.281240.8130.8160.523.316BR01- 09[retail]Special Offer0.520.290.29$1.25111.051.300(iv)half barrel = one keg = 15.5 gallons5TARGETED MARKET SIZE (PER PRODUCTS AND FYs)FY-1FY-2FY- 3Retail100%125,583100%142,311100%159,952Wholesale100% 279,525100%288,933100%310,496Product IDDistributionBR01- 01[retail]23%28,884.2024%34,154.5223%36,789.03BR01- 02[retail]25%31,395.8723%32,731.4222%35,189.51BR01- 03[retail]14%17,581.6914%19,923.4715%23,992.85BR01- 04[retail]12%15,070.0213%18,500.3713%20,793.80BR01- 05[retail]12%15,070.0213%18,500.3713%20,793.80BR01- 06[retail]14%17,581.6913%18,500.3714%22,393.32BR01- 07[wholesale]45%125,786.0348%138,688.0750%155,247.84BR 01- 08[wholesale]55%153,738.4952%150,245.4150%155,247.84BR 01-09[retail]0%00%00%06SALES PROJECTIONS (BUSINESS UNIT: next 36 Months of Operations)Keg [units]124Cutoff Point80%Year/MonthBR01-01BR01-02BR01-03BR01-04BR01- 05BR01-06BR01-07BR01-08BR01- 09[retail][retail][retail][retail][retail][retail][wholesale][wholes ale][retail]FY-1Percent Monthly Demand by YearJan7.00%6.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%Feb7. 00%6.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%Mar7.00%6.00 %6.00%6.00%6.00%6.00%6.00%6.00%Apr7.00%7.00%7.00%7. 00%7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%May8.00%8.00%8.00%8.00%8.00 %8.00%8.00%8.00%Jun10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%10
  • 22. .00%10.00%10.00%Jul10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%10. 00%10.00%10.00%Aug10.00%11.00%12.00%12.00%12.00%12. 00%12.00%12.00%Sep10.00%11.00%12.00%12.00%12.00%12. 00%12.00%12.00%Oct10.00%11.00%11.00%11.00%11.00%11.0 0%11.00%11.00%Nov7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00 %7.00%Dec7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%6.00%T ot100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%9 9.00%0.00%Demanded Quantity per MonthJan2,0221,8848797547548796,2897,6870Feb2,0221,8848 797547548796,2897,6870Mar2,0221,8841,0559049041,0557,54 79,2240Apr2,0222,1981,2311,0551,0551,2318,80510,7620May2 ,3112,5121,4071,2061,2061,40710,06312,2990Jun2,8883,1401,7 581,5071,5071,75812,57915,3740Jul2,8883,1401,7581,5071,507 1,75812,57915,3740Aug2,8883,4542,1101,8081,8082,11015,094 18,4490Sep2,8883,4542,1101,8081,8082,11015,09418,4490Oct2 ,8883,4541,9341,6581,6581,93413,83616,9110Nov2,0222,1981, 2311,0551,0551,2318,80510,7620Dec2,0222,1981,2311,0551,05 51,2318,8059,2240Tot28,88431,39617,58215,07015,07017,5821 25,786153,7380[kegs]101124TotalNumber of Tanks to Produce and ServeJan13.01.51.40.00.00.00.04.55.60.0Feb13.01.51.40.00.00. 00.04.55.60.0Mar18.01.51.51.00.00.01.05.57.50.0Apr22.01.51.7 1.01.01.01.06.58.30.0May26.01.92.01.01.01.01.08.110.00.0Jun3 1.02.22.51.01.01.01.09.812.50.0Jul31.02.22.51.01.01.01.09.812. 50.0Aug35.02.22.71.01.01.01.011.814.30.0Sep35.02.22.71.01.0 1.01.011.814.30.0Oct33.02.22.71.01.01.01.010.813.30.0Nov22. 01.51.71.01.01.01.06.58.30.0Dec21.01.51.71.01.01.01.06.57.30. 0Total Demand[units]28,88431,39617,58215,07015,07017,582125,7861 53,738- 0Total Supply[units]27,24630,50712,40011,16011,16012,400119,07414 8,0530Excess Demand[units]1,6398895,1823,9103,9105,1826,7125,6850FY- 2Percent Monthly Demand by YearJan7.00%6.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%Feb7. 00%6.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%Mar7.00%6.00
  • 23. %6.00%6.00%6.00%6.00%6.00%6.00%Apr7.00%7.00%7.00%7. 00%7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%May8.00%8.00%8.00%8.00%8.00 %8.00%8.00%8.00%Jun10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%10 .00%10.00%10.00%Jul10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%10. 00%10.00%10.00%Aug10.00%11.00%12.00%12.00%12.00%12. 00%12.00%12.00%Sep10.00%11.00%12.00%12.00%12.00%12. 00%12.00%12.00%Oct10.00%11.00%11.00%11.00%11.00%11.0 0%11.00%11.00%Nov7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00 %7.00%Dec7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%T ot100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%1 00.00%0.00%Demanded Quantity per MonthJan2,3911,9649969259259256,9347,5120Feb2,3911,9649 969259259256,9347,5120Mar2,3911,9641,1951,1101,1101,1108 ,3219,0150Apr2,3912,2911,3951,2951,2951,2959,70810,5170M ay2,7322,6191,5941,4801,4801,48011,09512,0200Jun3,4153,27 31,9921,8501,8501,85013,86915,0250Jul3,4153,2731,9921,8501 ,8501,85013,86915,0250Aug3,4153,6002,3912,2202,2202,22016 ,64318,0290Sep3,4153,6002,3912,2202,2202,22016,64318,0290 Oct3,4153,6002,1922,0352,0352,03515,25616,5270Nov2,3912,2 911,3951,2951,2951,2959,70810,5170Dec2,3912,2911,3951,295 1,2951,2959,70810,5170Tot34,15532,73119,92318,50018,50018 ,500138,688150,2450[kegs]112121TotalNumber of Tanks to Produce and ServeJan15.01.81.51.00.00.00.05.25.50.0Feb15.01.81.51.00.00. 00.05.25.50.0Mar21.01.81.61.01.01.01.06.27.40.0Apr23.01.81.8 1.01.01.01.07.28.20.0May27.02.22.11.01.01.01.08.89.90.0Jun32 .02.82.51.01.01.01.011.211.50.0Jul32.02.82.51.01.01.01.011.21 1.50.0Aug38.02.72.82.01.01.01.013.314.20.0Sep38.02.72.82.01. 01.01.013.314.20.0Oct35.02.72.91.01.01.01.012.313.10.0Nov23 .01.81.81.01.01.01.07.28.20.0Dec23.01.81.81.01.01.01.07.28.20 .0Total Demand[units]34,15532,73119,92318,50018,50018,500138,6881 50,245- 0Total Supply[units]32,99631,68817,36012,40012,40012,400134,40414 5,6320Excess Demand[units]1,1591,0432,5636,1006,1006,1004,2844,6130FY-
  • 24. 3Percent Monthly Demand by YearJan7.00%6.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%Feb7. 00%6.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%Mar7.00%6.00 %6.00%6.00%6.00%6.00%6.00%6.00%Apr7.00%7.00%7.00%7. 00%7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%May8.00%8.00%8.00%8.00%8.00 %8.00%8.00%8.00%Jun10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%10 .00%10.00%10.00%Jul10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%10. 00%10.00%10.00%Aug10.00%11.00%12.00%12.00%12.00%12. 00%12.00%12.00%Sep10.00%11.00%12.00%12.00%12.00%12. 00%12.00%12.00%Oct10.00%11.00%11.00%11.00%11.00%11.0 0%11.00%11.00%Nov7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00 %7.00%Dec7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%T ot100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%1 00.00%0.00%Demanded Quantity per MonthJan2,5752,1111,2001,0401,0401,1207,7627,7620Feb2,575 2,1111,2001,0401,0401,1207,7627,7620Mar2,5752,1111,4401,2 481,2481,3449,3159,3150Apr2,5752,4631,6791,4561,4561,5681 0,86710,8670May2,9432,8151,9191,6641,6641,79112,42012,42 00Jun3,6793,5192,3992,0792,0792,23915,52515,5250Jul3,6793, 5192,3992,0792,0792,23915,52515,5250Aug3,6793,8712,8792,4 952,4952,68718,63018,6300Sep3,6793,8712,8792,4952,4952,68 718,63018,6300Oct3,6793,8712,6392,2872,2872,46317,07717,0 770Nov2,5752,4631,6791,4561,4561,56810,86710,8670Dec2,57 52,4631,6791,4561,4561,56810,86710,8670Tot36,78935,19023, 99320,79420,79422,393155,248155,2480[kegs]125125TotalNu mber of Tanks to Produce and ServeJan20.02.01.71.01.01.01.06.06.30.0Feb20.02.01.71.01.01. 01.06.06.30.0Mar22.01.91.71.01.01.01.07.17.30.0Apr25.02.11.8 1.01.01.01.08.98.20.0May28.02.32.21.01.01.01.09.79.80.0Jun36 .02.92.82.01.01.02.012.112.20.0Jul36.02.92.82.01.01.02.012.11 2.20.0Aug44.03.03.12.02.02.02.015.014.90.0Sep44.03.03.12.02. 02.02.015.014.90.0Oct41.02.83.12.02.02.02.013.213.90.0Nov25 .02.11.81.01.01.01.08.98.20.0Dec25.02.11.81.01.01.01.08.98.20 .0Total Demand[units]36,78935,19023,99320,79420,79422,393155,2481 55,248- 0Total
  • 25. Supply[units]36,05434,37721,08018,60018,60021,080152,42615 1,6230Excess Demand[units]7358132,9132,1942,1941,3132,8223,6250BR01- 01BR01-02BR01-03BR01-04BR01-05BR01-06BR01-07BR01- 08BR01- 09[retail][retail][retail][retail][retail][retail][wholesale][wholes ale][retail]FY-1Jan1,8101,70800005,6306,9720FY- 1Feb1,8101,70800005,6306,97287FY- 1Mar1,8341,8841,055001,0556,8469,224422FY- 1Apr1,8532,1031,2311,0551,0551,2318,06710,297389FY- 1May2,3112,5121,2401,2061,2061,24010,06312,299164FY- 1Jun2,7793,1401,2401,2401,2401,24012,10115,37487FY- 1Jul2,7793,1401,2401,2401,2401,24012,10115,37487FY- 1Aug2,7883,3241,2401,2401,2401,24014,57217,7560FY- 1Sep2,7883,3241,2401,2401,2401,24014,57217,7560FY- 1Oct2,7843,3651,2401,2401,2401,24013,33616,4750FY- 1Nov1,8532,1031,2311,0551,0551,2318,06710,297389FY- 1Dec1,8532,1471,2311,0551,0551,2318,0679,013389FY- 2Jan2,2251,7999960006,4556,881244FY- 2Feb2,2251,7999960006,4556,881244FY- 2Mar2,2141,9641,1951,1101,1101,1107,7069,015616FY- 2Apr2,2052,2181,2401,2401,2401,2408,95510,1820FY- 2May2,6952,6191,2401,2401,2401,24010,94512,020242FY- 2Jun3,4153,1051,2401,2401,2401,24013,86914,25576FY- 2Jul3,4153,1051,2401,2401,2401,24013,86914,25576FY- 2Aug3,3783,5092,3911,2401,2401,24016,46217,57189FY- 2Sep3,3783,5092,3911,2401,2401,24016,46217,57189FY- 2Oct3,4023,5491,2401,2401,2401,24015,19816,2910FY- 2Nov2,2052,2181,2401,2401,2401,2408,95510,1820FY- 2Dec2,2052,2181,2401,2401,2401,2408,95510,1820FY- 3Jan2,4712,1111,2001,0401,0401,1207,4497,762608FY- 3Feb2,4712,1111,2001,0401,0401,1207,4497,762608FY- 3Mar2,4172,0621,2401,2401,2401,2408,7439,0980FY- 3Apr2,5752,2911,2401,2401,2401,24010,86710,109197FY- 3May2,8512,7501,2401,2401,2401,24012,02912,1300FY- 3Jun3,5633,4372,3991,2401,2402,23915,03715,163321FY-
  • 26. 3Jul3,5633,4372,3991,2401,2402,23915,03715,163321FY- 3Aug3,6793,8402,4802,4802,4802,48018,63018,48011FY- 3Sep3,6793,8402,4802,4802,4802,48018,63018,48011FY- 3Oct3,5173,8712,4802,2872,2872,46316,32317,077534FY- 3Nov2,5752,2911,2401,2401,2401,24010,86710,109197FY- 3Dec2,5752,2911,2401,2401,2401,24010,86710,1091977PROD UCTION CAPACITY (next 36 Months of Operations)7.1Production Capacity: DefinitionsCapacity per tank[units]1240Capacity per tank[kegs]10Capacity per keg [units]1247.2Maximum Capacity:CAPACITY (per pints)TanksGallonsPintsCapacityMonthFY[1 week][ 4 week][48 week]11551,2401,2404,96059,52021551,2401,2404,96059,5203 1551,2401,2404,96059,52041551,2401,2404,96059,52051551,24 01,2404,96059,52061551,2401,2404,96059,52071551,2401,2404 ,96059,52081551,2401,2404,96059,520Total1240992099203968 0476160 &8&K002060BU MET AD715 OL: Quantitative and Qualitative Decision-Making 2014 Dr. Vladimir Zlatev &8&K002060Business Simulation: Strategies and Decision Support in Organizations &8&K002060Copyright 2014 by Dr. Vladimir Zlatev All Rights Reserved &8&K002060&F &8&K002060&A &8&K002060&P Add item Add item Add item Add item Add item Add item Add item Add item Add item Add attribute Delete Item
  • 27. Change Editable Fields Change distribution Add item Extend content 36-Mo-Fin-PrCurrent Cycle 0Cycle in Calculation 01Sales ProjectionsSales Projections: Products sold per month (for FY- 1, FY-2, and FY- 3)ProductsJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecOverallB R01-01,FY- 11,8101,8101,8341,8532,3112,7792,7792,7882,7882,7841,8531, 85327,241FY-1FY- 22,2252,2252,2142,2052,6953,4153,4153,3783,3783,4022,2052, 20532,966FY-2FY- 32,4712,4712,4172,5752,8513,5633,5633,6793,6793,5172,5752, 57535,937FY-3BR01-02,FY- 11,7081,7081,8842,1032,5123,1403,1403,3243,3243,3652,1032, 14730,457FY-1FY- 21,7991,7991,9642,2182,6193,1053,1053,5093,5093,5492,2182, 21831,612FY-2FY- 32,1112,1112,0622,2912,7503,4373,4373,8403,8403,8712,2912, 29134,333FY-3BR01-03,FY- 1001,0551,2311,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2311,23112,1 87FY-1FY- 29969961,1951,2401,2401,2401,2402,3912,3911,2401,2401,240 16,649FY-2FY- 31,2001,2001,2401,2401,2402,3992,3992,4802,4802,4801,2401, 24020,838FY-3BR01-04,FY- 10001,0551,2061,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,0551,05510,570FY -1FY- 2001,1101,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,24012,2 70FY-2FY- 31,0401,0401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2402,4802,4802,2871,2401, 24018,007FY-3BR01-05,FY- 10001,0551,2061,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,0551,05510,570FY -1FY- 2001,1101,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,24012,2
  • 28. 70FY-2FY- 31,0401,0401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2402,4802,4802,2871,2401, 24018,007FY-3BR01-06,FY- 1001,0551,2311,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2311,23112,1 87FY-1FY- 2001,1101,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,24012,2 70FY-2FY- 31,1201,1201,2401,2401,2402,2392,2392,4802,4802,4631,2401, 24020,341FY-3BR01-07,FY- 15,6305,6306,8468,06710,06312,10112,10114,57214,57213,336 8,0678,067119,053FY-1FY- 26,4556,4557,7068,95510,94513,86913,86916,46216,46215,198 8,9558,955134,283FY-2FY- 37,4497,4498,74310,86712,02915,03715,03718,63018,63016,32 310,86710,867151,928FY-3BR01-08,FY- 16,9726,9729,22410,29712,29915,37415,37417,75617,75616,47 510,2979,013147,809FY-1FY- 26,8816,8819,01510,18212,02014,25514,25517,57117,57116,29 110,18210,182145,284FY-2FY- 37,7627,7629,09810,10912,13015,16315,16318,48018,48017,07 710,10910,109151,443FY-3BR01-09,FY- 108742238916487870003893892,013FY-1FY- 22442446160242767689890001,675FY-2FY- 36086080197032132111115341971973,007FY-3Total ProductsFY- 116,12016,20722,32027,28032,24038,44038,44043,40043,40040 ,92027,28026,040372,087FY-1per MonthsFY- 218,60018,60026,04028,52033,48039,68039,68047,12047,12043 ,40028,52028,520399,280FY-2FY- 324,80024,80027,28031,00034,72044,64044,64054,56054,56050 ,84031,00031,000453,840FY-31,225,207Overall2Prices and Variable Costs per productVariable Costs per Unit Product IDDistributionNameMaterialsLaborOthersOverallPricesBR01- 01,[retail]Pilsner0.560.300.30$1.16$4.00BR01- 02,[retail]Bavarian Lager0.500.300.30$1.10$4.00BR01- 03,[retail]Light Wheat0.500.300.30$1.10$3.50BR01-
  • 29. 04,[retail]Red Wheat0.500.300.30$1.10$3.50BR01- 05,[retail]Pale Ale0.500.300.30$1.10$3.50BR01-06,[retail]Bock Dark0.500.300.30$1.10$3.50BR01- 07,[wholesale]Pilsner0.560.240.26$1.06$1.25BR01- 08,[wholesale]Bavarian Lager0.560.240.26$1.06$1.28BR01- 09,[retail]Special Offer0.520.290.29$1.10$1.253Annual Fixed Costs FY-1FY-2FY-3Employees salaries130000144300173160Utilities&Other335004311047457 Marketing Costs380004218050616Rent500055506660Loans Payments153911539115391Total Fixed Costs $221,891$250,531$293,284Total Current Assets$40,000Private Investment$150,000412 Month Proforma: FY-1YearFY-1FY- 1FY-1FY-1FY-1FY-1FY-1FY-1FY-1FY-1FY-1FY-1 FY- 1MonthJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecTotalBR01- 01,Price per unit$4.00Variable cost $1.16Sales Volume1,8101,8101,8341,8532,3112,7792,7792,7882,7882,7841 ,8531,85327241Revenue$7,240$7,240$7,336$7,410$9,243$11,1 15$11,115$11,154$11,154$11,136$7,410$7,410$108,962Expens es$2,100$2,100$2,127$2,149$2,680$3,223$3,223$3,235$3,235$ 3,229$2,149$2,149$31,599Contribution$5,140$5,140$5,209$5,2 61$6,562$7,892$7,892$7,919$7,919$7,906$5,261$5,261$77,363 BR01-02,Price per unit$4.00Variable cost $1.10Sales Volume1,7081,7081,8842,1032,5123,1403,1403,3243,3243,3652 ,1032,14730457Revenue$6,834$6,834$7,535$8,411$10,047$12, 558$12,558$13,296$13,296$13,458$8,411$8,589$121,827Expen ses$1,982$1,982$2,072$2,313$2,763$3,454$3,454$3,656$3,656 $3,701$2,313$2,362$33,708Contribution$4,852$4,852$5,463$6, 098$7,284$9,105$9,105$9,639$9,639$9,757$6,098$6,227$88,12 0BR01-03,Price per unit$3.50Variable cost $1.10Sales Volume001,0551,2311,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2311,23 112187Revenue$0$0$3,692$4,308$4,340$4,340$4,340$4,340$4, 340$4,340$4,308$4,308$42,655Expenses$0$0$1,160$1,354$1,3 64$1,364$1,364$1,364$1,364$1,364$1,354$1,354$13,406Contri bution$0$0$2,532$2,954$2,976$2,976$2,976$2,976$2,976$2,97 6$2,954$2,954$29,249BR01-04,Price per unit$3.50Variable cost $1.10Sales
  • 30. Volume0001,0551,2061,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,0551,05510 570Revenue$0$0$0$3,692$4,220$4,340$4,340$4,340$4,340$4,3 40$3,692$3,692$36,996Expenses$0$0$0$1,160$1,326$1,364$1, 364$1,364$1,364$1,364$1,160$1,160$11,627Contribution$0$0$ 0$2,532$2,893$2,976$2,976$2,976$2,976$2,976$2,532$2,532$2 5,369BR01-05,Price per unit$3.50Variable cost $1.10Sales Volume0001,0551,2061,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,0551,05510 570Revenue$0$0$0$3,692$4,220$4,340$4,340$4,340$4,340$4,3 40$3,692$3,692$36,996Expenses$0$0$0$1,160$1,326$1,364$1, 364$1,364$1,364$1,364$1,160$1,160$11,627Contribution$0$0$ 0$2,532$2,893$2,976$2,976$2,976$2,976$2,976$2,532$2,532$2 5,369BR01-06,Price per unit$3.50Variable cost $1.10Sales Volume001,0551,2311,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2311,23 112187Revenue$0$0$3,692$4,308$4,340$4,340$4,340$4,340$4, 340$4,340$4,308$4,308$42,655Expenses$0$0$1,160$1,354$1,3 64$1,364$1,364$1,364$1,364$1,364$1,354$1,354$13,406Contri bution$0$0$2,532$2,954$2,976$2,976$2,976$2,976$2,976$2,97 6$2,954$2,954$29,249BR01-07,Price per unit$1.25Variable cost $1.06Sales Volume5,6305,6306,8468,06710,06312,10112,10114,57214,572 13,3368,0678,067119053Revenue$7,038$7,038$8,557$10,084$1 2,579$15,127$15,127$18,215$18,215$16,670$10,084$10,084$1 48,816Expenses$6,531$6,531$7,257$8,552$10,667$12,827$12,8 27$15,446$15,446$14,136$8,552$8,552$127,322Contribution$5 07$507$1,301$1,533$1,912$2,299$2,299$2,769$2,769$2,534$1, 533$1,533$21,494BR01-08,Price per unit$1.28Variable cost $1.06Sales Volume6,9726,9729,22410,29712,29915,37415,37417,75617,75 616,47510,2979,013147809Revenue$8,924$8,924$11,807$13,18 0$15,743$19,679$19,679$22,728$22,728$21,089$13,180$11,53 6$189,195Expenses$8,087$8,087$9,778$10,915$13,037$16,296 $16,296$18,821$18,821$17,464$10,915$9,553$158,072Contrib ution$837$837$2,029$2,265$2,706$3,382$3,382$3,906$3,906$ 3,625$2,265$1,983$31,124BR01-09,Price per unit$1.25Variable cost $1.10Sales Volume08742238916487870003893892013Revenue$0$108$528
  • 31. $486$206$108$108$0$0$0$486$486$2,516Expenses$0$100$46 3$427$180$95$95$0$0$0$427$427$2,214Contribution$0$8$64$ 59$25$13$13$0$0$0$59$59$302Total Revenue$30,035$30,143$43,148$55,571$64,936$75,947$75,947 $82,752$82,752$79,713$55,571$54,105$730,619Total Expenses$18,699$18,800$24,018$29,384$34,708$41,352$41,35 2$46,614$46,614$43,987$29,384$28,071$402,981Total Contribution$11,336$11,343$19,130$26,188$30,228$34,595$34 ,595$36,137$36,137$35,726$26,188$26,034$327,638Fixed Costs FY-1 (Total)Employees salaries$10,833$10,833$10,833$10,833$10,833$10,833$10,833 $10,833$10,833$10,833$10,833$10,833$130,000Utilities&Othe r$2,791.67$2,792$2,792$2,792$2,792$2,792$2,792$2,792$2,79 2$2,792$2,792$2,792$33,500Marketing Costs$3,166.67$3,167$3,167$3,167$3,167$3,167$3,167$3,167$ 3,167$3,167$3,167$3,167$38,000Rent$416.67$417$417$417$4 17$417$417$417$417$417$417$417$5,000Loan Payments$1,283$1,283$1,283$1,283$1,283$1,283$1,283$1,283 $1,283$1,283$1,283$1,283$15,391Total Fixed Costs$19,116$19,116$19,116$19,116$19,116$19,116$19,116$1 9,116$19,116$19,116$19,116$19,116$229,391Depreciation$625 $625$625$625$625$625$625$625$625$625$625$625$7,500Prof it (Before Taxes)($7,780)($7,773)$14$7,072$11,112$15,479$15,479$17,0 21$17,021$16,610$7,072$6,918$98,246Profit taxes0.35Cumulative Profit($7,780)($15,553)($15,539)($8,467)$2,645$18,124$33,60 3$50,625$67,646$84,256$91,328$98,246Ending Cash Balance($86,140)Profit (After Taxes)($7,780)($7,773)$14$7,072$10,186$10,062$10,062$11,0 64$11,064$10,797$4,597$4,497$63,860YearFY-1FY-1FY-1FY- 1FY-1FY-1FY-1FY-1FY-1FY-1FY-1FY-1FY- 1MonthJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecTotal512 Month Proforma: FY-2YearFY-2FY-2FY-2FY-2FY-2FY-2FY- 2FY-2FY-2FY-2FY-2FY-2 FY- 2MonthJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecTotalBR01-
  • 32. 01,Price per unit$4.00Variable cost $1.16Sales Volume2,2252,2252,2142,2052,6953,4153,4153,3783,3783,4022 ,2052,20532966Revenue$8,902$8,902$8,856$8,821$10,781$13, 662$13,662$13,513$13,513$13,610$8,821$8,821$131,864Expen ses$2,581$2,581$2,568$2,558$3,127$3,962$3,962$3,919$3,919 $3,947$2,558$2,558$38,241Contribution$6,320$6,320$6,288$6, 263$7,655$9,700$9,700$9,594$9,594$9,663$6,263$6,263$93,62 3BR01-02,Price per unit$4.00Variable cost $1.10Sales Volume1,7991,7991,9642,2182,6193,1053,1053,5093,5093,5492 ,2182,21831612Revenue$7,196$7,196$7,856$8,873$10,474$12, 422$12,422$14,036$14,036$14,196$8,873$8,873$126,449Expen ses$2,087$2,087$2,160$2,440$2,880$3,416$3,416$3,860$3,860 $3,904$2,440$2,440$34,989Contribution$5,109$5,109$5,695$6, 433$7,594$9,006$9,006$10,176$10,176$10,292$6,433$6,433$9 1,460BR01-03,Price per unit$3.50Variable cost $1.10Sales Volume9969961,1951,2401,2401,2401,2402,3912,3911,2401,24 01,24016649Revenue$3,487$3,487$4,184$4,340$4,340$4,340$4 ,340$8,368$8,368$4,340$4,340$4,340$58,273Expenses$1,156$1 ,156$1,315$1,364$1,364$1,364$1,364$2,630$2,630$1,364$1,36 4$1,364$18,434Contribution$2,331$2,331$2,869$2,976$2,976$ 2,976$2,976$5,738$5,738$2,976$2,976$2,976$39,839BR01- 04,Price per unit$3.50Variable cost $1.10Sales Volume001,1101,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,24 012270Revenue$0$0$3,885$4,340$4,340$4,340$4,340$4,340$4, 340$4,340$4,340$4,340$42,945Expenses$0$0$1,221$1,364$1,3 64$1,364$1,364$1,364$1,364$1,364$1,364$1,364$13,497Contri bution$0$0$2,664$2,976$2,976$2,976$2,976$2,976$2,976$2,97 6$2,976$2,976$29,448BR01-05,Price per unit$3.50Variable cost $1.10Sales Volume001,1101,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,24 012270Revenue$0$0$3,885$4,340$4,340$4,340$4,340$4,340$4, 340$4,340$4,340$4,340$42,945Expenses$0$0$1,221$1,364$1,3 64$1,364$1,364$1,364$1,364$1,364$1,364$1,364$13,497Contri bution$0$0$2,664$2,976$2,976$2,976$2,976$2,976$2,976$2,97 6$2,976$2,976$29,448BR01-06,Price per unit$3.50Variable cost $1.10Sales
  • 33. Volume001,1101,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2401,24 012270Revenue$0$0$3,885$4,340$4,340$4,340$4,340$4,340$4, 340$4,340$4,340$4,340$42,945Expenses$0$0$1,221$1,364$1,3 64$1,364$1,364$1,364$1,364$1,364$1,364$1,364$13,497Contri bution$0$0$2,664$2,976$2,976$2,976$2,976$2,976$2,976$2,97 6$2,976$2,976$29,448BR01-07,Price per unit$1.25Variable cost $1.06Sales Volume6,4556,4557,7068,95510,94513,86913,86916,46216,462 15,1988,9558,955134283Revenue$8,068$8,068$9,632$11,193$1 3,681$17,336$17,336$20,577$20,577$18,997$11,193$11,193$1 67,853Expenses$7,487$7,487$8,168$9,492$11,601$14,701$14,7 01$17,449$17,449$16,109$9,492$9,492$143,630Contribution$5 81$581$1,464$1,701$2,079$2,635$2,635$3,128$3,128$2,888$1, 701$1,701$24,223BR01-08,Price per unit$1.28Variable cost $1.06Sales Volume6,8816,8819,01510,18212,02014,25514,25517,57117,57 116,29110,18210,182145284Revenue$8,808$8,808$11,539$13,0 33$15,385$18,246$18,246$22,491$22,491$20,852$13,033$13,0 33$185,964Expenses$7,982$7,982$9,556$10,793$12,741$15,11 0$15,110$18,625$18,625$17,268$10,793$10,793$155,378Contr ibution$826$826$1,983$2,240$2,644$3,136$3,136$3,866$3,866 $3,584$2,240$2,240$30,586BR01-09,Price per unit$1.25Variable cost $1.10Sales Volume2442446160242767689890001675Revenue$305$305$77 0$0$302$95$95$111$111$0$0$0$2,094Expenses$283$283$676 $0$265$83$83$98$98$0$0$0$1,869Contribution$22$22$94$0$3 7$12$12$14$14$0$0$0$225Total Revenue$36,765$36,765$54,492$59,280$67,984$79,120$79,120 $92,116$92,116$85,015$59,280$59,280$801,333Total Expenses$21,576$21,576$28,106$30,739$36,071$42,728$42,72 8$50,673$50,673$46,685$30,739$30,739$433,032Total Contribution$15,189$15,189$26,386$28,541$31,913$36,392$36 ,392$41,443$41,443$38,331$28,541$28,541$368,300Fixed CostsFY-2 (Total)Employees salaries$12,025$12,025$12,025$12,025$12,025$12,025$12,025 $12,025$12,025$12,025$12,025$12,025$144,300Utilities&Othe
  • 34. r$3,592.50$3,593$3,593$3,593$3,593$3,593$3,593$3,593$3,59 3$3,593$3,593$3,593$43,110Marketing Costs$3,515.00$3,515$3,515$3,515$3,515$3,515$3,515$3,515$ 3,515$3,515$3,515$3,515$42,180Rent$462.50$463$463$463$4 63$463$463$463$463$463$463$463$5,550Loan Payments$1,283$1,283$1,283$1,283$1,283$1,283$1,283$1,283 $1,283$1,283$1,283$1,283$15,391Total Fixed Costs$22,065$22,065$22,065$22,065$22,065$22,065$22,065$2 2,065$22,065$22,065$22,065$22,065$264,781Depreciation$1,1 88$1,188$1,188$1,188$1,188$1,188$1,188$1,188$1,188$1,188$ 1,188$1,188$14,250Profit (Before Taxes)($6,877)($6,877)$4,320$6,476$9,848$14,327$14,327$19, 378$19,378$16,266$6,476$6,476$103,519Profit taxes0.35Cumulative Profit($6,877)($13,753)($9,433)($2,957)$6,891$21,218$35,545 $54,924$74,302$90,567$97,043$103,519Ending Cash Balance($18,852)Profit (After Taxes)($6,877)($6,877)$4,320$6,476$7,436$9,313$9,313$12,59 6$12,596$10,573$4,209$4,209$67,287YearFY-2FY-2FY-2FY- 2FY-2FY-2FY-2FY-2FY-2FY-2FY-2FY-2FY- 2MonthJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecTotal612 Month Proforma: FY-3YearFY-3FY-3FY-3FY-3FY-3FY-3FY- 3FY-3FY-3FY-3FY-3FY-3FY- 3MonthJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecTotal BR01-01,Price per unit$4.00Variable cost $1.16Sales Volume2,4712,4712,4172,5752,8513,5633,5633,6793,6793,5172 ,5752,57535937Revenue$9,885$9,885$9,668$10,301$11,402$14 ,253$14,253$14,716$14,716$14,066$10,301$10,301$143,747Ex penses$2,867$2,867$2,804$2,987$3,307$4,133$4,133$4,268$4, 268$4,079$2,987$2,987$41,686Contribution$7,018$7,018$6,86 5$7,314$8,096$10,120$10,120$10,448$10,448$9,987$7,314$7,3 14$102,060BR01-02,Price per unit$4.00Variable cost $1.10Sales Volume2,1112,1112,0622,2912,7503,4373,4373,8403,8403,8712 ,2912,29134333Revenue$8,445$8,445$8,249$9,165$10,998$13, 748$13,748$15,359$15,359$15,483$9,165$9,165$137,331Expen
  • 35. ses$2,449$2,449$2,268$2,520$3,025$3,781$3,781$4,224$4,224 $4,258$2,520$2,520$38,019Contribution$5,996$5,996$5,980$6, 645$7,974$9,967$9,967$11,135$11,135$11,225$6,645$6,645$9 9,311BR01-03,Price per unit$3.50Variable cost $1.10Sales Volume1,2001,2001,2401,2401,2402,3992,3992,4802,4802,4801 ,2401,24020838Revenue$4,199$4,199$4,340$4,340$4,340$8,39 7$8,397$8,680$8,680$8,680$4,340$4,340$72,932Expenses$1,39 2$1,392$1,364$1,364$1,364$2,639$2,639$2,728$2,728$2,728$1 ,364$1,364$23,066Contribution$2,807$2,807$2,976$2,976$2,97 6$5,758$5,758$5,952$5,952$5,952$2,976$2,976$49,867BR01- 04,Price per unit$3.50Variable cost $1.10Sales Volume1,0401,0401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2402,4802,4802,2871 ,2401,24018007Revenue$3,639$3,639$4,340$4,340$4,340$4,34 0$4,340$8,680$8,680$8,006$4,340$4,340$63,023Expenses$1,20 6$1,206$1,364$1,364$1,364$1,364$1,364$2,728$2,728$2,516$1 ,364$1,364$19,932Contribution$2,433$2,433$2,976$2,976$2,97 6$2,976$2,976$5,952$5,952$5,490$2,976$2,976$43,091BR01- 05,Price per unit$3.50Variable cost $1.10Sales Volume1,0401,0401,2401,2401,2401,2401,2402,4802,4802,2871 ,2401,24018007Revenue$3,639$3,639$4,340$4,340$4,340$4,34 0$4,340$8,680$8,680$8,006$4,340$4,340$63,023Expenses$1,20 6$1,206$1,364$1,364$1,364$1,364$1,364$2,728$2,728$2,516$1 ,364$1,364$19,932Contribution$2,433$2,433$2,976$2,976$2,97 6$2,976$2,976$5,952$5,952$5,490$2,976$2,976$43,091BR01- 06,Price per unit$3.50Variable cost $1.10Sales Volume1,1201,1201,2401,2401,2402,2392,2392,4802,4802,4631 ,2401,24020341Revenue$3,919$3,919$4,340$4,340$4,340$7,83 8$7,838$8,680$8,680$8,621$4,340$4,340$71,194Expenses$1,29 9$1,299$1,364$1,364$1,364$2,463$2,463$2,728$2,728$2,710$1 ,364$1,364$22,510Contribution$2,620$2,620$2,976$2,976$2,97 6$5,374$5,374$5,952$5,952$5,912$2,976$2,976$48,685BR01- 07,Price per unit$1.25Variable cost $1.06Sales Volume7,4497,4498,74310,86712,02915,03715,03718,63018,63 016,32310,86710,867151928Revenue$9,311$9,311$10,929$13,5 84$15,037$18,796$18,796$23,287$23,287$20,404$13,584$13,5 84$189,911Expenses$8,641$8,641$9,267$11,519$12,751$15,93
  • 36. 9$15,939$19,748$19,748$17,303$11,519$11,519$162,534Contr ibution$670$670$1,661$2,065$2,286$2,857$2,857$3,540$3,540 $3,101$2,065$2,065$27,377BR01-08,Price per unit$1.28Variable cost $1.06Sales Volume7,7627,7629,09810,10912,13015,16315,16318,48018,48 017,07710,10910,109151443Revenue$9,936$9,936$11,645$12,9 39$15,527$19,409$19,409$23,655$23,655$21,859$12,939$12,9 39$193,847Expenses$9,004$9,004$9,644$10,715$12,858$16,07 3$16,073$19,589$19,589$18,102$10,715$10,715$162,082Contr ibution$931$931$2,002$2,224$2,669$3,336$3,336$4,066$4,066 $3,757$2,224$2,224$31,765BR01-09,Price per unit$1.25Variable cost $1.10Sales Volume6086080197032132111115341971973007Revenue$759$ 759$0$247$0$402$402$14$14$667$247$247$3,759Expenses$7 05$705$0$217$0$353$353$12$12$586$217$217$3,376Contribu tion$55$55$0$30$0$49$49$2$2$81$30$30$383Total Revenue$53,732$53,732$57,851$63,596$70,324$91,522$91,522 $111,751$111,751$105,793$63,596$63,596$938,767Total Expenses$28,768$28,768$29,439$33,415$37,397$48,109$48,10 9$58,752$58,752$54,798$33,415$33,415$493,137Total Contribution$24,964$24,964$28,412$30,181$32,928$43,413$43 ,413$52,998$52,998$50,995$30,181$30,181$445,630Fixed Costs FY-3 (Total)Employees salaries$14,430$14,430$14,430$14,430$14,430$14,430$14,430 $14,430$14,430$14,430$14,430$14,430$173,160Utilities&Othe r$3,954.75$3,955$3,955$3,955$3,955$3,955$3,955$3,955$3,95 5$3,955$3,955$3,955$47,457Marketing Costs$4,218.00$4,218$4,218$4,218$4,218$4,218$4,218$4,218$ 4,218$4,218$4,218$4,218$50,616Rent$555.00$555$555$555$5 55$555$555$555$555$555$555$555$6,660Loan Payments$1,283$1,283$1,283$1,283$1,283$1,283$1,283$1,283 $1,283$1,283$1,283$1,283$15,391Total Fixed Costs$25,509$25,509$25,509$25,509$25,509$25,509$25,509$2 5,509$25,509$25,509$25,509$25,509$306,109Depreciation$1,0 69$1,069$1,069$1,069$1,069$1,069$1,069$1,069$1,069$1,069$ 1,069$1,069$12,825Profit (Before
  • 37. Taxes)($545)($545)$2,902$4,672$7,419$17,904$17,904$27,489 $27,489$25,486$4,672$4,672$139,521Profit Taxes0.35Cumulative Profit($545)($1,090)$1,812$6,484$13,903$31,807$49,711$77,2 01$104,690$130,176$134,848$139,521Ending Cash Balance$71,836Profit (After Taxes)($545)($545)$2,268$3,037$4,822$11,638$11,638$17,868 $17,868$16,566$3,037$3,037$90,688YearFY-3FY-3FY-3FY- 3FY-3FY-3FY-3FY-3FY-3FY-3FY-3FY-3 FY- 3MonthJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecTotal7Finan cial Summary: per FY and Overall 36 MonthsFY-1FY-2 FY- 3TotalTotal TotalTotalBR01-01,Sales Volume96,14327,24132,96635,937Revenue384,573108,962131, 864143,747Expenses111,52631,59938,24141,686Contribution27 3,04777,36393,623102,060BR01-02,Sales Volume96,40230,45731,61234,333Revenue385,607121,827126, 449137,331Expenses106,71633,70834,98938,019Contribution27 8,89188,12091,46099,311BR01-03,Sales Volume49,67412,18716,64920,838Revenue173,86042,65558,27 372,932Expenses54,90513,40618,43423,066Contribution118,95 529,24939,83949,867BR01-04,Sales Volume40,84710,57012,27018,007Revenue142,96536,99642,94 563,023Expenses45,05611,62713,49719,932Contribution97,908 25,36929,44843,091BR01-05,Sales Volume40,84710,57012,27018,007Revenue142,96536,99642,94 563,023Expenses45,05611,62713,49719,932Contribution97,908 25,36929,44843,091BR01-06,Sales Volume44,79812,18712,27020,341Revenue156,79442,65542,94 571,194Expenses49,41313,40613,49722,510Contribution107,38 229,24929,44848,685BR01-07,Sales Volume405,264119,053134,283151,928Revenue506,580148,816 167,853189,911Expenses433,487127,322143,630162,534Contri bution73,09321,49424,22327,377BR01-08,Sales Volume444,536147,809145,284151,443Revenue569,006189,195 185,964193,847Expenses475,531158,072155,378162,082Contri bution93,47531,12430,58631,765BR01-09,Sales
  • 38. Volume6,6952,0131,6753,007Revenue8,3682,5162,0943,759Exp enses7,4592,2141,8693,376Contribution909302225383Total Revenue2,470,718730,619801,333938,767Total Expenses1,329,150402,981433,032493,137Total Contribution1,141,568327,638368,300445,630Fixed Costs Employees salaries447,460130,000144,300173,160Utilities&Other124,0673 3,50043,11047,457Marketing Costs130,79638,00042,18050,616Rent17,2105,0005,5506,660Lo an Payments46,17415,39115,39115,391Total Fixed Costs800,282229,391264,781306,109Depreciation34,5757,5001 4,25012,825Profit (Before Taxes)341,28698,246103,519139,521Ending Cash Balance(86,140)(18,852)71,836Profit (After Taxes)221,83663,86067,28790,688Year36 MonthsFY-1FY-2 FY-3 &8BU MET AD715: Quantitative and Qualitative Decision- Making 2014 Professor Vladimir Zlatev &8Business Simulation: Strategies and Decision Support in Organizations &8Copyright 2014 by Dr. Vladimir Zlatev All Rights Reserved &8File Name: &F &8&A &8 Page &P of &N Choose cycle to calculate D-AnalysisCurrent Cycle 0Calculating 0MCS Interation:01BREAK-EVEN ANALYSISFY-1TOTAL BRAND 01BR01-01,BR01-02,BR01-03,BR01-04,BR01-05,BR01- 06,BR01-07,BR01-08,BR01- 09,Revenue[$]$730,618.56$108,962$121,827$42,655$36,996$3 6,996$42,655$148,816$189,195$2,516Expenses[$]$402,980.91$ 31,599$33,708$13,406$11,627$11,627$13,406$127,322$158,07 2$2,214Total Fixed Costs [$]$221,891Contribution [$]$327,637.66$77,363$88,120$29,249$25,369$25,36929,249$2
  • 39. 1,494$31,124$302Contribution Margin [%]44.8471.0072.3368.5768.5768.5768.5714.4416.4511.98Brea k-even Months8.13Break-even Months8.13[=Total Fixed Costs/Contribution*12 months]Sales $494,809Sales $494,809[=Total Fixed Costs/Contribution Margin]X-axis range08.13Fixed Cost Range$221,891$221,891Total Revenue Range$0494,809Total Cost Range$221,891494,8092WHAT IF ANALYSIS2.1What is the BEP if the total fixed costs are increased and/or decreased while the selling price and the variable costs per products remain the same?FY-1BRAND 01TOTAL BRAND 01BR01-01,BR01-02,BR01-03,BR01- 04,BR01-05,BR01-06,BR01-07,BR01-08,BR01-09,Total Fixed Costs [$]$221,891Price/unit[$]$4.00$4.00$3.50$3.50$3.50$3.50$1.25 $1.28$1.25Variable cost/unit[$]$1.16$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.06$1.06$1.10Co ntribution/unit[$]$2.84$2.90$2.40$2.40$2.40$2.40$0.19$0.22$0 .15Contribution margin[%]45.22%71.00%72.50%68.57%68.57%68.57%68.57%1 5.20%17.19%12.00%Sales Volume [quantity]27,24130,45712,18710,57010,57012,187119,053147,8 092,013Revenue[$]$730,619$108,962$121,827$42,655$36,996$ 36,996$42,655$148,816$189,195$2,516% of Sales[%]14.91%16.67%5.84%5.06%5.06%5.84%20.37%25.90% 0.34%Expense[$]$400,255$31,599$33,503$13,406$11,627$11,6 27$13,406$126,196$156,677$2,214Contribution[$]$330,363$77 ,363$88,325$29,249$25,369$25,369$29,249$22,620$32,518$30 2[%]23.42%26.74%8.85%7.68%7.68%8.85%6.85%9.84%0.09%I ncrease to:Total Fixed Costs [$]$250,000Price/unit[$]$4.00$4.00$3.50$3.50$3.50$3.50$1.25 $1.28$1.25Variable cost/unit[$]$1.16$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.06$1.06$1.10Co ntribution/unit[$]$2.84$2.90$2.40$2.40$2.40$2.40$0.19$0.22$0 .15Contribution margin[%]45.22%71.00%72.50%68.57%68.57%68.57%68.57%1 5.20%17.19%12.00%Sales Volume
  • 40. [quantity]27,24130,45712,18710,57010,57012,187119,053147,8 092,013Revenue[$]$730,619$108,962$121,827$42,655$36,996$ 36,996$42,655$148,816$189,195$2,516% of Sales[%]14.91%16.67%5.84%5.06%5.06%5.84%20.37%25.90% 0.34%Expense[$]$400,255$31,599$33,503$13,406$11,627$11,6 27$13,406$126,196$156,677$2,214Contribution[$]$330,363$77 ,363$88,325$29,249$25,369$25,369$29,249$22,620$32,518$30 2[%]23.42%26.74%8.85%7.68%7.68%8.85%6.85%9.84%0.09% Break-Even PointMonths9.08(BEP)Revenue$552,890Decrease to:Total Fixed Costs [$]$230,000Price/unit[$]$4.00$4.00$3.50$3.50$3.50$3.50$1.25 $1.28$1.25Variable cost/unit[$]$1.16$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.06$1.06$1.10Co ntribution/unit[$]$2.84$2.90$2.40$2.40$2.40$2.40$0.19$0.22$0 .15Contribution margin[%]45.22%71.00%72.50%68.57%68.57%68.57%68.57%1 5.20%17.19%12.00%Sales Volume [quantity]27,24130,45712,18710,57010,57012,187119,053147,8 092,013Revenue[$]$730,619$108,962$121,827$42,655$36,996$ 36,996$42,655$148,816$189,195$2,516% of Sales[%]14.91%16.67%5.84%5.06%5.06%5.84%20.37%25.90% 0.34%Expense[$]$400,255$31,599$33,503$13,406$11,627$11,6 27$13,406$126,196$156,677$2,214Contribution[$]$330,363$77 ,363$88,325$29,249$25,369$25,369$29,249$22,620$32,518$30 2[%]23.42%26.74%8.85%7.68%7.68%8.85%6.85%9.84%0.09% Break-Even PointMonths8.35(BEP)Revenue$508,6592.2What is the BEP if the selling prices per products are increased and/or decreased while the total fixed costs and the variable costs per products remain the same?FY-1BRAND 01TOTAL BRAND 01BR01-01,BR01-02,BR01-03,BR01-04,BR01-05,BR01- 06,BR01-07,BR01-08,BR01-09,Total Fixed Costs [$]$221,891Price/unit[$]$4.00$4.00$3.50$3.50$3.50$3.50$1.25 $1.28$1.25Variable cost/unit[$]$1.16$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.06$1.06$1.10Co ntribution/unit[$]$2.84$2.90$2.40$2.40$2.40$2.40$0.19$0.22$0 .15Contribution
  • 41. margin[%]45.22%71.00%72.50%68.57%68.57%68.57%68.57%1 5.20%17.19%12.00%Sales Volume [quantity]27,24130,45712,18710,57010,57012,187119,053147,8 092,013Revenue[$]$730,619$108,962$121,827$42,655$36,996$ 36,996$42,655$148,816$189,195$2,516% of Sales[%]14.91%16.67%5.84%5.06%5.06%5.84%20.37%25.90% 0.34%Expense[$]$400,255$31,599$33,503$13,406$11,627$11,6 27$13,406$126,196$156,677$2,214Contribution[$]$330,363$77 ,363$88,325$29,249$25,369$25,369$29,249$22,620$32,518$30 2[%]23.42%26.74%8.85%7.68%7.68%8.85%6.85%9.84%0.09% Total Fixed Costs [$]$221,891Increase to:Price/unit[$]$4.00$4.00$3.50$3.50$3.50$3.50$1.25$1.28$1.2 5Variable cost/unit[$]$1.16$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.06$1.06$1.10Co ntribution/unit[$]$2.84$2.90$2.40$2.40$2.40$2.40$0.19$0.22$0 .15Contribution margin[%]45.22%71.00%72.50%68.57%68.57%68.57%68.57%1 5.20%17.19%12.00%Sales Volume [quantity]27,24130,45712,18710,57010,57012,187119,053147,8 092,013Revenue[$]$730,619$108,962.44$121,827.34$42,654.69 $36,996.07$36,996.07$42,654.69$148,816.26$189,195.32$2,51 5.68% of Sales[%]14.91%16.67%5.84%5.06%5.06%5.84%20.37%25.90% 0.34%Expense[$]$400,255$31,599.11$33,502.52$13,405.76$11, 627.34$11,627.34$13,405.76$126,196.19$156,677.38$2,213.80 Contribution[$]$330,363$77,363.34$88,324.82$29,248.93$25,3 68.73$25,368.73$29,248.93$22,620.07$32,517.95$301.88[%]23 .42%26.74%8.85%7.68%7.68%8.85%6.85%9.84%0.09%Break- Even PointMonths8.06(BEP)Revenue$490,726Total Fixed Costs [$]$221,891Decrease to:Price/unit[$]$4.00$4.00$3.50$3.50$3.50$3.50$1.25$1.28$1.2 5Variable cost/unit[$]$1.16$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.06$1.06$1.10Co ntribution/unit[$]$2.84$2.90$2.40$2.40$2.40$2.40$0.19$0.22$0 .15Contribution margin[%]45.22%$0.71$0.73$0.69$0.69$0.69$0.69$0.15$0.17$
  • 42. 0.12Sales Volume [quantity]$27,240.61$30,456.83$12,187.06$10,570.31$10,570.3 1$12,187.06$119,053.01$147,808.85$2,012.54Revenue[$]$730, 619$108,962.44$121,827.34$42,654.69$36,996.07$36,996.07$4 2,654.69$148,816.26$189,195.32$2,515.68% of Sales[%]$0.15$0.17$0.06$0.05$0.05$0.06$0.20$0.26$0.00Expe nse[$]$400,255$31,599.11$33,502.52$13,405.76$11,627.34$11, 627.34$13,405.76$126,196.19$156,677.38$2,213.80Contributio n[$]$330,363$77,363.34$88,324.82$29,248.93$25,368.73$25,36 8.73$29,248.93$22,620.07$32,517.95$301.88[%]$0.23$0.27$0. 09$0.08$0.08$0.09$0.07$0.10$0.00Break-Even PointMonths8.06(BEP)Revenue$490,7262.3What is the BEP if the Variable Cost/unit are increased and/or decreased while the total fixed costs and the price per products remain the same?BRAND 01TOTAL BRAND 01BR01-01,BR01-02,BR01- 03,BR01-04,BR01-05,BR01-06,BR01-07,BR01-08,BR01- 09,Total Fixed Costs [$]$221,891Price/unit[$]$4.00$4.00$3.50$3.50$3.50$3.50$1.25 $1.28$1.25Variable cost/unit[$]$1.16$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.06$1.06$1.10Co ntribution/unit[$]$2.84$2.90$2.40$2.40$2.40$2.40$0.19$0.22$0 .15Contribution margin[%]45.22%71.00%72.50%68.57%68.57%68.57%68.57%1 5.20%17.19%12.00%Sales Volume [quantity]27,24130,45712,18710,57010,57012,187119,053147,8 092,013Revenue[$]$730,619$108,962$121,827$42,655$36,996$ 36,996$42,655$148,816$189,195$2,516% of Sales[%]14.91%16.67%5.84%5.06%5.06%5.84%20.37%25.90% 0.34%Expense[$]$400,255$31,599$33,503$13,406$11,627$11,6 27$13,406$126,196$156,677$2,214Contribution[$]$330,363$77 ,363$88,325$29,249$25,369$25,369$29,249$22,620$32,518$30 2[%]23.42%26.74%8.85%7.68%7.68%8.85%6.85%9.84%0.09% Total Fixed Costs [$]$221,891Price/unit[$]$4.00$4.00$3.50$3.50$3.50$3.50$1.25 $1.28$1.25Increase to:Variable cost/unit[$]$1.16$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.06$1.06$1.10Co
  • 43. ntribution/unit[$]$2.84$2.90$2.40$2.40$2.40$2.40$0.19$0.22$0 .15Contribution margin[%]45.22%71.00%72.50%68.57%68.57%68.57%68.57%1 5.20%17.19%12.00%Sales Volume [quantity]27,24130,45712,18710,57010,57012,187119,053147,8 092,013Revenue[$]$730,619$108,962$121,827$42,655$36,996$ 36,996$42,655$148,816$189,195$2,516% of Sales[%]14.91%16.67%5.84%5.06%5.06%5.84%20.37%25.90% 0.34%Expense[$]$400,255$31,599$33,503$13,406$11,627$11,6 27$13,406$126,196$156,677$2,214Contribution[$]$330,363$77 ,363$88,325$29,249$25,369$25,369$29,249$22,620$32,518$30 2[%]23.42%26.74%8.85%7.68%7.68%8.85%6.85%9.84%0.09% Break-Even PointMonths8.06(BEP)Sales $ 490,726Total Fixed Costs [$]$221,891Price/unit[$]$4.00$4.00$3.50$3.50$3.50$3.50$1.25 $1.28$1.25Decrease to:Variable cost/unit[$]$1.16$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.06$1.06$1.10Co ntribution/unit[$]$2.84$2.90$2.40$2.40$2.40$2.40$0.19$0.22$0 .15Contribution margin[%]45.22%71.00%72.50%68.57%68.57%68.57%68.57%1 5.20%17.19%12.00%Sales Volume [quantity]27,24130,45712,18710,57010,57012,187119,053147,8 092,013Revenue[$]$730,619$108,962$121,827$42,655$36,996$ 36,996$42,655$148,816$189,195$2,516% of Sales[%]14.91%16.67%5.84%5.06%5.06%5.84%20.37%25.90% 0.34%Expense[$]$400,255$31,599$33,503$13,406$11,627$11,6 27$13,406$126,196$156,677$2,214Contribution[$]$330,363$77 ,363$88,325$29,249$25,369$25,369$29,249$22,620$32,518$30 2[%]23.42%26.74%8.85%7.68%7.68%8.85%6.85%9.84%0.09% Break-Even PointMonths8.06(BEP)Sales $ 490,7263SENSITIVITY ANALYSISFY-1BRAND 01TOTAL BRAND 01BR01-01,BR01-02,BR01-03,BR01-04,BR01- 05,BR01-06,BR01-07,BR01-08,BR01- 09,[retail][retail][retail][retail][retail][retail][wholesale][wholes ale][retail]Total Fixed Costs [$]$221,891Price/unit[$]$4.00$4.00$3.50$3.50$3.50$3.50$1.25
  • 44. $1.28$1.25Variable cost/unit[$]$1.16$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.06$1.06$1.10Co ntribution/unit[$]$2.84$2.90$2.40$2.40$2.40$2.40$0.19$0.22$0 .15Contribution margin[%]45.22%71.00%72.50%68.57%68.57%68.57%68.57%1 5.20%17.19%12.00%Sales Volume [quantity]372,08727,24130,45712,18710,57010,57012,187119,0 53147,8092,013Revenue[$]$730,619$108,962$121,827$42,655$ 36,996$36,996$42,655$148,816$189,195$2,516% of Sales[%]14.91%16.67%5.84%5.06%5.06%5.84%20.37%25.90% 0.34%Expense[$]$400,255$31,599$33,503$13,406$11,627$11,6 27$13,406$126,196$156,677$2,214Contribution[$]$330,363$77 ,363$88,325$29,249$25,369$25,369$29,249$22,620$32,518$30 2[%]23.42%26.74%8.85%7.68%7.68%8.85%6.85%9.84%0.09% Profit (Before Taxes)[$]$108,472Price SensitivityMin$3.00$3.00$2.50$2.50$2.50$2.50$1.00$1.00$1.0 0$1.00Base$4.00$4.00$3.50$3.50$3.50$3.50$1.25$1.28$1.28$1. 28Market Research$5.00$5.00$4.00$4.00$4.00$4.00$1.30$1.35$1.35$1.35 Max$6.00$6.00$5.00$5.00$5.00$5.00$1.50$1.50$1.50$1.50Var Costs SensitivityMin$0.40$0.40$0.40$0.40$0.40$0.40$0.40$0.40$0.4 0$0.40Base$0.53$0.53$0.50$0.50$0.50$0.50$0.41$0.41$0.41$0. 41Market Research$0.60$0.60$0.60$0.60$0.60$0.60$0.60$0.60$0.60$0.60 Max$0.90$0.90$0.90$0.90$0.90$0.90$0.90$0.90$0.90$0.90retai lwholesalemax divided by min21.5Min2724130457121871057010570121877936998539201 3Projected Consumption[quantity]3518293632140609170621479814798170 62952421133202616Max54481609142437421141211412437411 90531478094025ContributionProjected$ 708,764$ 159,812$ 178,680$ 58,010$ 50,315$ 50,315$ 58,010$ 66,670$ 84,990$ 1,962Profit before TaxesProjected$486,8724OPTIMIZATION ANALYSISFY- 1BRAND 01TOTAL BRAND 01BR01-01,BR01-02,BR01-
  • 45. 03,BR01-04,BR01-05,BR01-06,BR01-07,BR01-08,BR01- 09,[retail][retail][retail][retail][retail][retail][wholesale][wholes ale][retail]Total Fixed Costs [$]$221,891Price/unit[$]$4.00$4.00$3.50$3.50$3.50$3.50$1.25 $1.28$1.25Variable cost/unit[$]$1.16$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.10$1.06$1.06$1.10Co ntribution/unit[$]$2.84$2.90$2.40$2.40$2.40$2.40$0.19$0.22$0 .15Contribution margin[%]45.22%71.00%72.50%68.57%68.57%68.57%68.57%1 5.20%17.19%12.00%Sales Volume [quantity]27,24130,45712,18710,57010,57012,187119,053147,8 092,013Revenue[$]$730,619$108,962$121,827$42,655$36,996$ 36,996$42,655$148,816$189,195$2,516% of Sales[%]14.91%16.67%5.84%5.06%5.06%5.84%20.37%25.90% 0.34%Expense[$]$400,255$31,599$33,503$13,406$11,627$11,6 27$13,406$126,196$156,677$2,214Contribution[$]$330,363$77 ,363$88,325$29,249$25,369$25,369$29,249$22,620$32,518$30 2[%]23.42%26.74%8.85%7.68%7.68%8.85%6.85%9.84%0.09% Profit (Before Taxes)[$]$108,472Price SensitivityMin$3.00$3.00$2.50$2.50$2.50$2.50$1.00$1.00$1.0 0$1.00Base$4.00$4.00$3.50$3.50$3.50$3.50$1.25$1.28$1.281.2 8Market Research$5.00$5.00$4.00$4.00$4.00$4.00$1.30$1.35$1.35$1.35 Max$6.00$6.00$5.00$5.00$5.00$5.00$1.50$1.50$1.50$1.50Var Costs SensitivityMin$0.40$0.40$0.40$0.40$0.40$0.40$0.40$0.40$0.4 0$0.40Base$0.53$0.53$0.50$0.50$0.50$0.50$0.41$0.41$0.410.4 1Market Research$0.60$0.60$0.60$0.60$0.60$0.60$0.60$0.60$0.60$0.60 Max$0.90$0.90$0.90$0.90$0.90$0.90$0.90$0.90$0.90$0.90FAL SEFALSEFALSEFALSEFALSEFALSEFALSEFALSETRUEretai lwholesalemax divided by min21.5Min2724130457121871057010570121877936998539201 3Projected Consumption[quantity]3518293632140609170621479814798170 62952421133202616Max54481609142437421141211412437411
  • 46. 90531478094025min consumption deviation-2.00%consumption deviation-5.44%max consumption deviation2.00%ContributionProjected$708,764$159,811.58$178 ,680.09$58,010.38$50,314.65$50,314.65$58,010.38$66,669.68$ 84,990.09$1,962.23Fixed Costs (Please enter manually)Profit before TaxesProjected$708,764Targeted Market size recommended for next cycle:25.82%28.87%12.13%10.52%10.52%12.13%45.67%54.33 %5RISK ANALYSISCycle used for MCS: Total iterations: 100 Current Interaction: 0Cycle used in calculation0Average (Profit)Failure rate (Profit)Standard Deviation (Profit)Cycle used in calculationAverage (Profit)Failure rate (Profit)Standard Deviation (Profit)Cycle used in calculationAverage (Profit)Failure rate (Profit)Standard Deviation (Profit)Cycle used in calculationAverage (Profit)Failure rate (Profit)Standard deviation (Profit)Average (IRR)Failure rate (Return on investment)Standard deviation (IRR) &8BU MET AD715: Quantitative and Qualitative Decision- Making 2014 Professor Vladimir Zlatev &8Business Simulation: Strategies and Decision Support in Organizations &8Copyright 2014 by Dr. Vladimir Zlatev All Rights Reserved &8File Name: &F &8&A &8 Page &P of &N Break-Even Analysis Chart: BRAND 01 Total Fixed Costs 0 8.1269521946897054 221891.3 221891.3 Break-Even Point 8.1269521946897054 494808.52424172848 Total Revenue 0 8.1269521946897054 0 494808.52424172848 Total Cost 0 8.1269521946897054 221891.3
  • 47. 494808.52424172848 Months Total Revenue [$] 36 month profit after taxes D-Analysis Change # of iterations Go Back to Sim-Navigator Choose cycle to calculate Run Monte-Carlo Simulation Reset Change Cycle Advance Options Run Series Unprotect Spreadsheet Protect Spreadsheet PerformanceCurrent Cycle 0Calculating 01Key Success IndicatorsFrom Project-StartFY-0FY-1FY-2FY- 3FY1+FY2+FY3Introducing an individually controlled brand (utilization in %)[%]85.08%90.57%98.80%91.48%Retain of critical technology personnel[number]1121.33Retain of critical marketing personnel[number]1121.33From Current CycleFY- 0FY-1FY-2FY-3FY1+FY2+FY3Introducing an individually controlled brand (utilization in %)[%]78.14%83.85%95.31%85.77%Retention of critical technology personnel[number]1121.33Retention of critical marketing personnel[number]1121.332Key Performance IndicatorsFrom Project-StartFY-0FY-1FY-2FY- 3FY1+FY2+FY3KPI 1:Actual size of the local
  • 48. market[units]15,000,000103%106%110%KPI 2:Number of customers- existing business[customers]90,000KPI 3:Average consumption per existing customer[units]2.0KPI 4:Size of the penetrated market - without new project[%]0%105%110%115%[units]180,000189,000198,00020 7,000594,000KPI 5:Overall increase of the penetrated market - with new project[%]220%KPI 6:Projected structure of the annual sales, new penetr. market[%]31.00%33.00%36.00%100.00%Projected sales, new brand[units]405,108431,244470,4481,306,800KPI 7:Projected consumption in the existing business, new brand only[%]31.0%33.0%34.0%32.74%[units]125,583142,311159,95 2427,846Projected beer consumption (new brand % of all)[%]66%72%77%Wholesale distribution (new brand)[%]69%67%66%67.26%[units]279,525288,933310,49687 8,954KPI 8:Capacity of the new technology (max units/year)[units]476,160476,160476,160476,160From Current CycleFY-0FY-1FY-2FY-3FY1+FY2+FY3KPI 1:Actual size of the local market[units]15,000,000103%106%110%KPI 2:Number customers- existing business[customers]90,000KPI 3:Average consumption per existing customer[units]2KPI 4:Size of the penetrated market - without new project[%]0%105%110%115%[units]180,000189,000198,00020 7,000594,000KPI 5:Overall increase of the penetrated market - with new project[%]220%KPI 6:Projected structure of the annual sales, new penetr. market[%]0.00%Projected sales, new brand[units]372,087399,280453,8401,225,207KPI 7:Projected consumption in the existing business, new brand only[%]28%30%33%30.64%[units]105,225119,713150,469375, 406Projected beer consumption (new brand % of all)[%]56%60%73%Wholesale distribution (new brand)[%]72%70%67%69.36%[units]266,862279,567303,37184 9,800KPI 8:Capacity of the new technology (max units/year)[units]476,160476,160476,160476,160Projected consumption current cycle VS Project-Start [Retail]Projected consumption current cycle VS Project-Start
  • 49. [Wholesale]Recommended additional value for next cycleFY- 1FY-2FY-3FY-1FY-2FY-3FY-1FY-2FY-3Project- start125,583142,311159,952Project- start279,525288,933310,496Project Start405,108431,244470,448Current cycle105,225119,713150,469Current cycle266,862279,567303,371Current Cycle372,087399,280453,84083.8%84.1%94.1%95.5%96.8%97. 7%Recommended Value33,02131,96416,6083 EFFICIENCY RATIOS1. Total Sales/Type of Product [%]BR01-01,BR01- 02,BR01-03,BR01-04,BR01-05,BR01-06,BR01-07,BR01- 08,BR01-09,FY- 114.91%16.67%5.84%5.06%5.06%5.84%20.37%25.90%0.34%F Y- 216.46%15.78%7.27%5.36%5.36%5.36%20.95%23.21%0.26%F Y- 315.31%14.63%7.77%6.71%6.71%7.58%20.23%20.65%0.40%T otal 3 years15.57%15.61%7.04%5.79%5.79%6.35%20.50%23.03%0.34 %2. Total Variable Costs/Type of Product [%]BR01-01,BR01- 02,BR01-03,BR01-04,BR01-05,BR01-06,BR01-07,BR01- 08,BR01-09,FY- 17.84%8.36%3.33%2.89%2.89%3.33%31.60%39.23%0.55%FY- 28.83%8.08%4.26%3.12%3.12%3.12%33.17%35.88%0.43%FY- 38.45%7.71%4.68%4.04%4.04%4.56%32.96%32.87%0.68%Tota l 3 years8.39%8.03%4.13%3.39%3.39%3.72%32.61%35.78%0.56% 3. Total Contribution/Type of Product [%]BR01-01,BR01- 02,BR01-03,BR01-04,BR01-05,BR01-06,BR01-07,BR01- 08,BR01-09,FY- 123.61%26.90%8.93%7.74%7.74%8.93%6.56%9.50%0.09%FY- 225.42%24.83%10.82%8.00%8.00%8.00%6.58%8.30%0.06%FY - 322.90%22.29%11.19%9.67%9.67%10.92%6.14%7.13%0.09%T otal 3 years23.92%24.43%10.42%8.58%8.58%9.41%6.40%8.19%0.08
  • 50. %4.FY-1FY-2FY-3Fixed Costs/Total Revenue of BRAND 01 [$]$0.31$0.33$0.33The company spends $0.XX fixed costs for the overall sale of $1.00 from BRAND 015.Compensations/Total Revenue of BRAND 01 [$]$0.18$0.18$0.18The company spends $0.XX costs for compensation needed for the overall sale of $1.00 from BRAND 016.(Local Advertising + Trade Shows)/Total Revenue Sales [$]$0.05$0.05$0.05The company spends $0.XX costs for advertising & trade shows needed for the overall sale of $1.00 from BRAND 017.FY-1FY-2FY-3Profit B.T. / Total Revenue of BRAND 01 [$]$0.13$0.13$0.15The company make $0.XX overall profit before taxes for the overall sale of $1.00 from BRAND 014Trend AnalysisFY-1FY-2FY- 3FY1+FY2+FY3Revenue$ 730,619$ 801,333$ 938,767$ 2,470,718Expenses$ 402,981$ 433,032$ 493,137$ 1,329,150Total contribution$ 327,638$ 368,300$ 445,630$ 1,141,568FY-1FY-2FY-3FY1+FY2+FY3Profit Before Taxes$ 98,246$ 103,519$ 139,521$ 341,286Fixed Costs$ 229,391$ 264,781$ 306,109$ 800,282FY-1FY-2FY- 3FY1+FY2+FY3Marketing Cost$ 38,000$ 42,180$ 50,616$ 130,796Compensation$ 130,000$ 144,300$ 173,160$ 447,460Other costs$ 68,891$ 92,551$ 95,158$ 256,601FY- 1FY-2FY-3Q-1Q-2Q-3Q-4Q-1Q-2Q-3Q-4Q-1Q-2Q-3Q- 4Revenue$103,325$196,454$241,450$189,389$128,021$206,38 4$263,353$203,575$165,315$225,443$315,024$232,985Expens es$61,517$105,443$134,580$101,441$71,258$109,537$144,074 $108,162$86,975$118,921$165,614$121,628Contribution$41,80 8$91,011$106,870$87,948$56,763$96,846$119,279$95,413$78, 340$106,522$149,410$111,358Fixed Costs$57,348$57,348$57,348$57,348$66,195$66,195$66,195$6 6,195$76,527$76,527$76,527$76,527Profit (B. T.)($15,539)$33,663$49,522$30,600($9,433)$30,651$53,083$2 9,217$1,812$29,995$72,883$34,830RevenueExpensesContributi onFixed CostsProft BT &8BU MET AD715: Quantitative and Qualitative Decision- Making
  • 51. 2014 Vladimir Zlatev &8Business Simulation: Strategies and Decision Support in Organizations &8Copyright 2014 by Dr. Vladimir Zlatev All Rights Reserved &8File Name: &F &8&A &8 Page &P of &N FY-3 Marketing CostCompensation Other costs 50616 173160 95158.295580719074 Fixed Costs Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 66195.323895179768 66195.323895179768 66195.323895179768 6619 5.323895179768 Profit (B. T.) Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 -9432.5866160125515 30650.987933843135 53083.348305568346 29217.355101300363 Revenue Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 165314.9083160148 225442.96867517338 315023.92458998109 232985.32 414678138
  • 52. Expenses Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 86975.397172554018 118920.62162397467 165613.61483149632 121627. 58362095362 Contribution Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 78339.511143460782 106522.34705119871 149410.30975848474 111 357.74052582771 Fixed Costs Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 76527.323895179768 76527.323895179768 76527.323895179768 7652 7.323895179768 Profit (B. T.) Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 1812.1872482810104 29995.023156018939 72882.985863304973 34830.416630647931 Revenue Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 103325.41247329237 196454.04290665637 241449.78312279668 189389.3 2849645941
  • 53. Contribution Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 57347.823895179783 57347.823895179783 57347.823895179783 573 47.823895179783 Profit (B. T.) Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 -15539.402508628729 33663.360331078118 49522.058795351724 30600.359173405363 FY-2 Marketing CostCompensation Other costs 42180 144300 92551.295580719074 Expenses Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 61516.991086741313 105442.85868039847 134579.90043226516 101441. 14542787427 Contribution Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 41808.421386551054 91011.184226257901 106869.88269053151 879 48.183068585146 1. Total Sales/Type of Product [%]
  • 54. BR01-01, BR01-02, BR01-03, BR01-04, BR01-05, BR01-06, BR01-07, BR01-08, BR01-09, 0.15565221982959884 0.1560709717922612 7.0368221650282239E-2 5.7863575323679972E-2 5.7863575323679972E-2 6.3460977463263651E-2 0.20503348692907791 0.23029998430809717 3.3869873395848374E-3 2. Total Variable Costs/Type of Product [%] BR01-01, BR01-02, BR01-03, BR01-04, BR01-05, BR01-06, BR01-07, BR01-08, BR01-09, 8.3907824656709054E-2 8.0289100836853963E-2 4.1308518504401148E-2 3.3898719542237825E-2 3.3898719542237825E-2 3.7176034475784409E-2 0.32613808077338508 0.35777100106250614 5.6120006811205972E-3 3. Total Contribution/Type of Product [%] BR01-01, BR01-02, BR01-03, BR01-04, BR01-05, BR01-06, BR01-07, BR01-08, BR01-09, 0.23918564153504271 0.24430530650582799 0.10420301021333779 8.5766331920808347E-2 8.5766331920808347E-2 9.4065057677237038E-2 6.4029007442197361E-2 8.1882952501543899E-2 7.9636028319638732E-4 [类别名称] [百分比] R W 0.31 0.69
  • 55. R W 0.28279631532949412 0.71720368467050588 [类别名称] [百分比] R W 0.33 0.66999999999999993 R W 0.29982213769138155 0.70017786230861845 FY-1 Marketing CostCompensation Other costs 38000 130000 68891.295580719161 [类别名称] [百分比] R W 0.34 0.65999999999999992 R W 0.33154563938672998 0.66845436061327002 Project-Start 125583.48 142310.52000000002 159952.32000000001 Current Cycle FY-1FY-2FY-3 105224.70939593052 119712.98313741482 150468.67297927354 Percentage 0.83788655479152607 0.84120965292948691 0.9407095375626533 Project-start 279524.51999999996 288933.48 310495.67999999993 Current Cycle FY-1FY-2FY-3 266861.85500406951 279567.01686258521 303371.3270207264 Percentage 0.95469926933089644 0.96758263134679035 0.97705490466317102
  • 56. Efficiency Ratio of Task 4,5,6 Fixed cost/Total overall sales FY-1FY-2FY-3 0.31396860953434924 0.33042624573727902 0.32607585757048319 Compensations/total overall sales FY-1FY-2FY-30.17793142122562766 0.18007505838097945 0.18445469089655872 (Advertising + Trade Shows)/Total overall sales FY-1 FY-2FY-35.2010723127491165E-2 5.2637324757517069E-2 5.3917525031301781E-2 Efficiency Ratio of Task 7 Profit B.T. / Total Revenue of BRAND 01 [$ ] FY-1FY-2 FY-30.13447013288304976 0.12918370635375573 0.14862111068286935 FY-1 Revenue Expenses Total contribution 402980.89562727924 327637.67137192556 FY-2 Revenue Expenses Total contribution 433032.11790878535 368300.40030541836 FY-3 Expenses Total contribution 493137.21724897868
  • 57. 445629.90847897192 FY-3Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 165314.9083160148 225442.96867517338 315023.92458998109 232985.32414 678138 FY-2128021.21140539796 206383.50944394595 263352.80732837977 203574.99003648001 FY-1103325.41247329237 196454.04290665637 241449.78312279668 189389.32849645941 FY-1 Profit Before Taxes Fixed Costs 139520.61289825288 306109.29558071907 FY-3Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 86975.397172554018 118920.62162397467 165613.61483149632 121627.5836 2095362 FY-271258.474126230736 109537.19761492303 144074.13512763169 108162.31103999988 FY-161516.991086741313 105442.85868039847 134579.90043226516 101441.14542787427 FY-3Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 78339.511143460782 106522.34705119871 149410.30975848474 111357.7405 2582771 FY-256762.737279167224 96846.311829022918 119278.67220074811 95412.678996480143 FY-141808.421386551054 91011.184226257901 106869.88269053151 87948.183068585146 FY-3Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 76527.323895179768 76527.323895179768 76527.323895179768 76527.32389 5179768 FY-266195.323895179768 66195.323895179768 66195.323895179768 66195.323895179768 FY-157347.823895179783
  • 58. 57347.823895179783 57347.823895179783 57347.823895179783 FY-3Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 1812.1872482810104 29995.023156018939 72882.985863304973 34830.41663 0647931 FY-2-9432.5866160125515 30650.987933843135 53083.348305568346 29217.355101300363 FY-1-15539.402508628729 33663.360331078118 49522.058795351724 30600.359173405363 Retention of critical technology personnel Retain of critical technology personnel FY-1FY-2FY-31 1 2 Retention of critical technology personnel FY-1 FY-2FY-31 1 2 Retention of critical marketing personnel Retain of critical marketi ng personnel FY-1FY-2FY-31 1 2 Retention of critical marketing personnelFY-1FY-2 FY-31 1 2 FY-1 Profit Before Taxes Fixed Costs 103519.1047246993 264781.29558071907 FY-1 Profit Before Taxes Fixed Costs 98246.375791206476 229391.29558071916
  • 59. Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 128021.21140539796 206383.50944394595 263352.80732837977 203574.99003648001 Expenses Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 71258.474126230736 109537.19761492303 144074.13512763169 108162. 31103999988 Contribution Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 56762.737279167224 96846.311829022918 119278.67220074811 954 12.678996480143 In a successful decision cycle, efficiency ratios should decrease each year In a successful decision cycle, efficiency ratios should increase each year II: Total Contribution- Fixed Costs III: Fixed Cost Structure I: Product Structure Sim-ReportCurrentCycle 0 Cycle in Calculation 0 Cycle for Monte-Carlo Simulation Cycles StartCycle 01Cycle 02Cycle 03Cycle 04Cycle 05Cycle 06Cycle 07Underlying Cycles0Department#Selected metrics for analyzing and evaluating the efficiency of projects or investmentsTotal revenue, Total2,470,718Total Revenue, FY1730,619Total Revenue, FY2801,333Total Revenue, FY3938,767Profit Before Taxes, Total341,286Profit Before Taxes, FY-198,246Profit Before Taxes, FY-2103,519Profit Before Taxes, FY- 3139,521Net Profit (After Taxes), Total221,836Net Profit (After Taxes), FY-163,860Net Profit (After Taxes), FY- 267,287Net Profit (After Taxes), FY-390,688Invested Capital(150,000)Profit BT/Total Revenue (36 Month)0.14Net
  • 60. Profit/Total Revenue (36 Month)0.09Break Even Point: Months8Break Even Point: Revenue494,809Ending Cash Balance (End of FY-1)(86,140)Return On Investment (ROI)1.48Internal Rate of Return (IRR)21.0%Discount Rate5.0%Risk-Free Rate1.0%Net Present Value50,191Duration (3 year to maturity, 10% coupon Bond)2.7692Duration (Project)2.0875Standard Deviation (Profit)Failure rate (Return On Investment)Standard Deviation (IRR)Sharpe Ratio (Applying Risk-Free Interest Rate)Sharpe Ratio (Applying Expected Return on Investment)Average (Profit)Average (IRR)#Business Indicators1.1Critical Success FactorsIntroducing an individually controlled brand (utilization in %), FY-10.85078125Introducing an individually controlled brand (utilization in %), FY-20.9056703629Introducing an individually controlled brand (utilization in %), FY- 30.9880040323Retention of critical technology personnel, FY- 11Retention of critical technology personnel, FY-21Retention of critical technology personnel, FY-32Retention of critical marketing personnel, FY-11Retention of critical marketing personnel, FY-21Retention of critical marketing personnel, FY-321.2Key Performance IndicatorsActual size of the local market [units], FY-015000000Actual size of the local market [units], FY-11.03Actual size of the local market [units], FY- 21.06Actual size of the local market [units], FY-31.1Actual size of the local market [units], FY1+FY2+FY3Number of customers- existing business [customers], FY-090000Number of customers- existing business [customers], FY-1Number of customers- existing business [customers], FY-2Number of customers- existing business [customers], FY-3Number of customers- existing business [customers], FY1+FY2+FY3Average consumption per existing customer [units], FY-02Average consumption per existing customer [units], FY-1Average consumption per existing customer [units], FY-2Average consumption per existing customer [units], FY-3Average consumption per existing customer [units], FY1+FY2+FY3Size of the penetrated market - without
  • 61. new project [%], FY-0Size of the penetrated market - without new project [%], FY-11.05Size of the penetrated market - without new project [%], FY-21.1Size of the penetrated market - without new project [%], FY-31.15Size of the penetrated market - without new project [%], FY1+FY2+FY3* [units], FY- 0180000* [units], FY-1189000* [units], FY-2198000* [units], FY-3207000* [units], FY1+FY2+FY3594000Projected increase of the penetrated market - with new project [%], FY-0Projected increase of the penetrated market - with new project [%], FY- 1Projected increase of the penetrated market - with new project [%], FY-2Projected increase of the penetrated market - with new project [%], FY-3Projected increase of the penetrated market - with new project [%], FY1+FY2+FY32.2Projected structure of the annual sales, new penetr. market [%], FY- 0Projected structure of the annual sales, new penetr. market [%], FY-10.31Projected structure of the annual sales, new penetr. market [%], FY-20.33Projected structure of the annual sales, new penetr. market [%], FY-30.36Projected structure of the annual sales, new penetr. market [%], FY1+FY2+FY31Projected sales, new brand [units], FY- 0Projected sales, new brand [units], FY-1405108Projected sales, new brand [units], FY-2431244Projected sales, new brand [units], FY-3470448Projected sales, new brand [units], FY1+FY2+FY31306800Projected consumption in the existing business, new brand only [%], FY-0Projected consumption in the existing business, new brand only [%], FY-10.31Projected consumption in the existing business, new brand only [%], FY- 20.33Projected consumption in the existing business, new brand only [%], FY-30.34Projected consumption in the existing business, new brand only [%], FY1+FY2+FY30.3274** [units], FY-0** [units], FY-1125583.48** [units], FY-2142310.52** [units], FY-3159952.32** [units], FY1+FY2+FY3427846.32Projected beer consumption (new brand % of all) [%], FY-0Projected beer consumption (new brand % of all) [%], FY-10.6644628571Projected beer consumption (new brand % of all) [%], FY-20.71874Projected
  • 62. beer consumption (new brand % of all) [%], FY- 30.7727165217Projected beer consumption (new brand % of all) [%], FY1+FY2+FY3Wholesale distribution (new brand) [%], FY-0Wholesale distribution (new brand) [%], FY- 10.69Wholesale distribution (new brand) [%], FY- 20.67Wholesale distribution (new brand) [%], FY- 30.66Wholesale distribution (new brand) [%], FY1+FY2+FY30.6726*** [units], FY-0*** [units], FY- 1279524.52*** [units], FY-2288933.48*** [units], FY- 3310495.68*** [units], FY1+FY2+FY3878953.68Capacity of the new technology (max units/year) [units], FY- 0476160Capacity of the new technology (max units/year) [units], FY-1476160Capacity of the new technology (max units/year) [units], FY-2476160Capacity of the new technology (max units/year) [units], FY-3476160Capacity of the new technology (max units/year) [units], FY1+FY2+FY32.0Private Investment$150,000.002.1EmployeesOffice Assistants, Budget$25,000.00Office Assistants, Number1Office Assistants, Salary increase FY-21.11Office Assistants, FY-31.2Salesmen , Budget$67,500.00Salesmen , Number1.5Salesmen , Salary increase FY-21.11Salesmen , FY-31.2Executive Salaries , Budget$32,500.00Executive Salaries , Number0.5Executive Salaries , Salary increase FY-21.11Executive Salaries , FY- 31.2Miscellaneous (Consultants), Budget$5,000.00Miscellaneous (Consultants), Salary increase FY-21.11Miscellaneous (Consultants), FY-31.22.11Total Salaries Budget, FY-1$130,000.002.12Total Salaries Budget, FY-2$144,300.002.13Total Salaries Budget, FY- 3$173,160.002.2Range of compensations for critical workersCritical Salesmen, Min$26,000.00Critical Salesmen, Base$30,000.00Critical Salesmen, Market Research$28,000.00Critical Salesmen, Max$32,000.00 Salesmen, Min$23,000.00 Salesmen, Base$24,000.00 Salesmen, Market Research$25,000.00 Salesmen, Max$27,000.00Critical Worker, Min$25,000.00Critical Worker, Base$30,000.00Critical Worker, Market Research$29,000.00Critical Worker,
  • 63. Max$32,000.00 Worker, Min$15,000.00 Worker, Base$20,000.00 Worker, Market Research$20,000.00 Worker, Max$22,000.002.3Utilities & OthersLeasing of cars, computers, etc, Payment FY-1$8,000.00Leasing of cars, computers, etc, Payment increase FY-21.11Leasing of cars, computers, etc, FY-31.2Office Supply, Payment FY- 1$4,000.00Office Supply, Payment increase FY-21.11Office Supply, FY-31.2Heat, Light, Phone, Payment FY- 1$7,000.00Heat, Light, Phone, Payment increase FY-21.11Heat, Light, Phone, FY-31.2Insurance, Payment FY- 1$7,000.00Insurance, Payment increase FY-21.11Insurance, FY-31.2Depreciation, Payment FY-1$7,500.00Depreciation, Payment increase FY-21.9Depreciation, FY-30.92.31Total Utilities Payments, FY-1$33,500.002.32Total Utilities Payments, FY-2$43,110.002.33Total Utilities Payments, FY- 3$47,457.002.4Marketing CostsLocal Advertising, Payment FY- 1$35,000.00Local Advertising, Payment increase FY- 21.11Local Advertising, FY-31.2Trade Shows, Payment FY- 1$3,000.00Trade Shows, Payment increase FY-21.11Trade Shows, FY-31.22.41Total Market Costs, FY- 1$38,000.002.42Total Market Costs, FY-2$42,180.002.43Total Market Costs, FY-3$50,616.002.5RentOffice, Payment$5,000.00Office, Space (ft^2)200Office, Payment increase FY-21.11Office, FY-31.22.51Total Rent, FY- 1$5,000.002.52Total Rent, FY-2$5,550.002.53Total Rent, FY- 3$6,660.002.6DebtBank of America, Amount$40,000.00Bank of America, Interest rate0.1Bank of America, length (months)36Bank of America, payments/year12Bank of America, Date startFY-1 Jan2.61Total Payments, FY- 1$15,391.302.62Total Payments, FY-2$15,391.302.63Total Payments, FY-3$15,391.302.64Total debt$40,000.002.70Depreciation2.701MACRS (15 yr schedule), FY-15.00%2.710Tax Shelter, FY-1$2,625.002.711MACRS (15 yr schedule), FY-29.50%2.720Tax Shelter, FY- 2$4,987.502.721MACRS (15 yr schedule), FY-38.55%2.730Tax Shelter, FY-3$4,488.752.8Financial Market IndicatorsExpected
  • 64. Return on Investment $0.05Risk-Free Interest rate $0.013.1Taxes3.11Profit, Percentage0.353.2 Fees3.21Total Fees4.1Product Name & DescriptionBR01-01, Distribution[retail]BR01-01, NamePilsnerBR01-01, Material (per unit)0.56BR01-01, Labor (per unit)0.3BR01-01, Others (per unit)0.3BR01-01, Price (per unit)$4.00BR01-01, Units (Pints)1BR01-01, Cut off point 0.8BR01-01, Weight (lb)1.05BR01-01, Weight (full) (lb)1.3BR01-01, Height (inches)0BR01-01, Diameter (inches)0BR01-02, Distribution[retail]BR01-02, NameBavarian LagerBR01-02, Material (per unit)0.5BR01-02, Labor (per unit)0.3BR01-02, Others (per unit)0.3BR01-02, Price (per unit)$4.00BR01-02, Units (Pints)1BR01-02, Cut off point 0.8BR01-02, Weight (lb)1.05BR01-02, Weight (full) (lb)1.3BR01-02, Height (inches)0BR01-02, Diameter (inches)0BR01-03, Distribution[retail]BR01-03, NameLight WheatBR01-03, Material (per unit)0.5BR01-03, Labor (per unit)0.3BR01-03, Others (per unit)0.3BR01-03, Price (per unit)$3.50BR01-03, Units (Pints)1BR01-03, Cut off point 0.8BR01-03, Weight (lb)1.05BR01-03, Weight (full) (lb)1.3BR01-03, Height (inches)0BR01-03, Diameter (inches)0BR01-04, Distribution[retail]BR01-04, NameRed WheatBR01-04, Material (per unit)0.5BR01-04, Labor (per unit)0.3BR01-04, Others (per unit)0.3BR01-04, Price (per unit)$3.50BR01-04, Units (Pints)1BR01-04, Cut off point 0.8BR01-04, Weight (lb)1.05BR01-04, Weight (full) (lb)1.3BR01-04, Height (inches)0BR01-04, Diameter (inches)0BR01-05, Distribution[retail]BR01-05, NamePale AleBR01-05, Material (per unit)0.5BR01-05, Labor (per unit)0.3BR01-05, Others (per unit)0.3BR01-05, Price (per unit)$3.50BR01-05, Units (Pints)1BR01-05, Cut off point 0.8BR01-05, Weight (lb)1.05BR01-05, Weight (full) (lb)1.3BR01-05, Height (inches)0BR01-05, Diameter (inches)0BR01-06, Distribution[retail]BR01-06, NameBock DarkBR01-06, Material (per unit)0.5BR01-06, Labor (per unit)0.3BR01-06, Others (per unit)0.3BR01-06, Price (per unit)$3.50BR01-06,
  • 65. Units (Pints)1BR01-06, Cut off point 0.8BR01-06, Weight (lb)1.05BR01-06, Weight (full) (lb)1.3BR01-06, Height (inches)0BR01-06, Diameter (inches)0BR01-07, Distribution[wholesale]BR01-07, NamePilsnerBR01-07, Material (per unit)0.56BR01-07, Labor (per unit)0.24BR01-07, Others (per unit)0.26BR01-07, Price (per unit)$1.25BR01-07, Units (Pints)124BR01-07, Cut off point 0.8BR01-07, Weight (lb)130.8BR01-07, Weight (full) (lb)160.5BR01-07, Height (inches)23,3BR01-07, Diameter (inches)16BR01-08, Distribution[wholesale]BR01-08, NameBavarian LagerBR01- 08, Material (per unit)0.56BR01-08, Labor (per unit)0.24BR01- 08, Others (per unit)0.26BR01-08, Price (per unit)$1.28BR01- 08, Units (Pints)124BR01-08, Cut off point 0.8BR01-08, Weight (lb)130.8BR01-08, Weight (full) (lb)160.5BR01-08, Height (inches)23.3BR01-08, Diameter (inches)16BR01-09, Distribution[retail]BR01-09, NameSpecial OfferBR01-09, Material (per unit)0.5225BR01-09, Labor (per unit)0.285BR01- 09, Others (per unit)0.29BR01-09, Price (per unit)$1.25BR01- 09, Units (Pints)1BR01-09, Cut off point 1BR01-09, Weight (lb)1.05BR01-09, Weight (full) (lb)1.3BR01-09, Height (inches)0BR01-09, Diameter (inches)05.1Targeted Marked SizeBR01-01, [retail] FY-10.23BR01-01, [retail] FY- 128884.2004BR01-01, [retail] FY-20.24BR01-01, [retail] FY- 234154.5248BR01-01, [retail] FY-30.23BR01-01, [retail] FY- 336789.0336BR01-02, [retail] FY-10.25BR01-02, [retail] FY- 131395.87BR01-02, [retail] FY-20.23BR01-02, [retail] FY- 232731.4196BR01-02, [retail] FY-30.22BR01-02, [retail] FY- 335189.5104BR01-03, [retail] FY-10.14BR01-03, [retail] FY- 117581.6872BR01-03, [retail] FY-20.14BR01-03, [retail] FY- 219923.4728BR01-03, [retail] FY-30.15BR01-03, [retail] FY- 323992.848BR01-04, [retail] FY-10.12BR01-04, [retail] FY- 115070.0176BR01-04, [retail] FY-20.13BR01-04, [retail] FY- 218500.3676BR01-04, [retail] FY-30.13BR01-04, [retail] FY- 320793.8016BR01-05, [retail] FY-10.12BR01-05, [retail] FY- 115070.0176BR01-05, [retail] FY-20.13BR01-05, [retail] FY- 218500.3676BR01-05, [retail] FY-30.13BR01-05, [retail] FY-
  • 66. 320793.8016BR01-06, [retail] FY-10.14BR01-06, [retail] FY- 117581.6872BR01-06, [retail] FY-20.13BR01-06, [retail] FY- 218500.3676BR01-06, [retail] FY-30.14BR01-06, [retail] FY- 322393.3248BR01-07, [wholesale] FY-10.45BR01-07, [wholesale] FY-1125786.034BR01-07, [wholesale] FY- 20.48BR01-07, [wholesale] FY-2138688.0704BR01-07, [wholesale] FY-30.5BR01-07, [wholesale] FY- 3155247.84BR01-08, [wholesale] FY-10.55BR01-08, [wholesale] FY-1153738.486BR01-08, [wholesale] FY- 20.52BR01-08, [wholesale] FY-2150245.4096BR01-08, [wholesale] FY-30.5BR01-08, [wholesale] FY- 3155247.84BR01-09, [retail] FY-10BR01-09, [retail] FY- 10BR01-09, [retail] FY-20BR01-09, [retail] FY-20BR01-09, [retail] FY-30BR01-09, [retail] FY-306.1Sales ProjectionsBR01-01, FY-1 Jan1809.9551569507BR01-01, FY-1 Feb1809.9551569507BR01-01, FY-1 Mar1834.040895813BR01- 01, FY-1 Apr1852.5301204819BR01-01, FY-1 May2310.736032BR01-01, FY-1 Jun2778.7951807229BR01-01, FY-1 Jul2778.7951807229BR01-01, FY-1 Aug2788.3937823834BR01-01, FY-1 Sep2788.3937823834BR01-01, FY-1 Oct2783.9554317549BR01-01, FY-1 Nov1852.5301204819BR01-01, FY-1 Dec1852.5301204819BR01-01, FY-2 Jan2225.3940066593BR01-01, FY-2 Feb2225.3940066593BR01-01, FY-2 Mar2214.0289855073BR01-01, FY-2 Apr2205.2694610778BR01-01, FY-2 May2695.3293413174BR01-01, FY-2 Jun3415.45248BR01-01, FY-2 Jul3415.45248BR01-01, FY-2 Aug3378.3281733746BR01-01, FY-2 Sep3378.3281733746BR01-01, FY-2 Oct3402.4390243902BR01-01, FY-2 Nov2205.2694610778BR01-01, FY-2 Dec2205.2694610778BR01-01, FY-3 Jan2471.196869027BR01- 01, FY-3 Feb2471.196869027BR01-01, FY-3
  • 67. Mar2417.1021603229BR01-01, FY-3 Apr2575.232352BR01-01, FY-3 May2850.6026457619BR01-01, FY-3 Jun3563.2533072023BR01-01, FY-3 Jul3563.2533072023BR01- 01, FY-3 Aug3678.90336BR01-01, FY-3 Sep3678.90336BR01- 01, FY-3 Oct3516.5185856754BR01-01, FY-3 Nov2575.232352BR01-01, FY-3 Dec2575.232352BR01-02, FY- 1 Jan1708.4444444444BR01-02, FY-1 Feb1708.4444444444BR01-02, FY-1 Mar1883.7522BR01-02, FY-1 Apr2102.8446389497BR01-02, FY-1 May2511.6696BR01- 02, FY-1 Jun3139.587BR01-02, FY-1 Jul3139.587BR01-02, FY- 1 Aug3323.9064089522BR01-02, FY-1 Sep3323.9064089522BR01-02, FY-1 Oct3364.5514223195BR01-02, FY-1 Nov2102.8446389497BR01-02, FY-1 Dec2147.2956197907BR01-02, FY-2 Jan1798.88595613BR01- 02, FY-2 Feb1798.88595613BR01-02, FY-2 Mar1963.885176BR01-02, FY-2 Apr2218.14753712BR01-02, FY-2 May2618.513568BR01-02, FY-2 Jun3105.4065519679BR01-02, FY-2 Jul3105.4065519679BR01- 02, FY-2 Aug3508.9203899755BR01-02, FY-2 Sep3508.9203899755BR01-02, FY-2 Oct3549.0360593919BR01-02, FY-2 Nov2218.14753712BR01- 02, FY-2 Dec2218.14753712BR01-02, FY-3 Jan2111.370624BR01-02, FY-3 Feb2111.370624BR01-02, FY-3 Mar2062.1739130435BR01-02, FY-3 Apr2291.3043478261BR01-02, FY-3 May2749.5652173913BR01-02, FY-3 Jun3436.9565217391BR01-02, FY-3 Jul3436.9565217391BR01- 02, FY-3 Aug3839.7792088317BR01-02, FY-3 Sep3839.7792088317BR01-02, FY-3 Oct3870.846144BR01-02, FY-3 Nov2291.3043478261BR01-02, FY-3 Dec2291.3043478261BR01-03, FY-1 Jan0BR01-03, FY-1 Feb0BR01-03, FY-1 Mar1054.901232BR01-03, FY-1 Apr1230.718104BR01-03, FY-1 May1240BR01-03, FY-1 Jun1240BR01-03, FY-1 Jul1240BR01-03, FY-1 Aug1240BR01- 03, FY-1 Sep1240BR01-03, FY-1 Oct1240BR01-03, FY-1
  • 68. Nov1230.718104BR01-03, FY-1 Dec1230.718104BR01-03, FY- 2 Jan996.17364BR01-03, FY-2 Feb996.17364BR01-03, FY-2 Mar1195.408368BR01-03, FY-2 Apr1240BR01-03, FY-2 May1240BR01-03, FY-2 Jun1240BR01-03, FY-2 Jul1240BR01- 03, FY-2 Aug2390.816736BR01-03, FY-2 Sep2390.816736BR01-03, FY-2 Oct1240BR01-03, FY-2 Nov1240BR01-03, FY-2 Dec1240BR01-03, FY-3 Jan1199.6424BR01-03, FY-3 Feb1199.6424BR01-03, FY-3 Mar1240BR01-03, FY-3 Apr1240BR01-03, FY-3 May1240BR01-03, FY-3 Jun2399.2848BR01-03, FY-3 Jul2399.2848BR01-03, FY-3 Aug2480BR01-03, FY-3 Sep2480BR01-03, FY-3 Oct2480BR01-03, FY-3 Nov1240BR01- 03, FY-3 Dec1240BR01-04, FY-1 Jan0BR01-04, FY-1 Feb0BR01-04, FY-1 Mar0BR01-04, FY-1 Apr1054.901232BR01-04, FY-1 May1205.601408BR01-04, FY- 1 Jun1240BR01-04, FY-1 Jul1240BR01-04, FY-1 Aug1240BR01-04, FY-1 Sep1240BR01-04, FY-1 Oct1240BR01- 04, FY-1 Nov1054.901232BR01-04, FY-1 Dec1054.901232BR01-04, FY-2 Jan0BR01-04, FY-2 Feb0BR01- 04, FY-2 Mar1110.022056BR01-04, FY-2 Apr1240BR01-04, FY-2 May1240BR01-04, FY-2 Jun1240BR01-04, FY-2 Jul1240BR01-04, FY-2 Aug1240BR01-04, FY-2 Sep1240BR01- 04, FY-2 Oct1240BR01-04, FY-2 Nov1240BR01-04, FY-2 Dec1240BR01-04, FY-3 Jan1039.69008BR01-04, FY-3 Feb1039.69008BR01-04, FY-3 Mar1240BR01-04, FY-3 Apr1240BR01-04, FY-3 May1240BR01-04, FY-3 Jun1240BR01-04, FY-3 Jul1240BR01-04, FY-3 Aug2480BR01- 04, FY-3 Sep2480BR01-04, FY-3 Oct2287.318176BR01-04, FY-3 Nov1240BR01-04, FY-3 Dec1240BR01-05, FY-1 Jan0BR01-05, FY-1 Feb0BR01-05, FY-1 Mar0BR01-05, FY-1 Apr1054.901232BR01-05, FY-1 May1205.601408BR01-05, FY- 1 Jun1240BR01-05, FY-1 Jul1240BR01-05, FY-1 Aug1240BR01-05, FY-1 Sep1240BR01-05, FY-1 Oct1240BR01- 05, FY-1 Nov1054.901232BR01-05, FY-1 Dec1054.901232BR01-05, FY-2 Jan0BR01-05, FY-2 Feb0BR01- 05, FY-2 Mar1110.022056BR01-05, FY-2 Apr1240BR01-05,
  • 69. FY-2 May1240BR01-05, FY-2 Jun1240BR01-05, FY-2 Jul1240BR01-05, FY-2 Aug1240BR01-05, FY-2 Sep1240BR01- 05, FY-2 Oct1240BR01-05, FY-2 Nov1240BR01-05, FY-2 Dec1240BR01-05, FY-3 Jan1039.69008BR01-05, FY-3 Feb1039.69008BR01-05, FY-3 Mar1240BR01-05, FY-3 Apr1240BR01-05, FY-3 May1240BR01-05, FY-3 Jun1240BR01-05, FY-3 Jul1240BR01-05, FY-3 Aug2480BR01- 05, FY-3 Sep2480BR01-05, FY-3 Oct2287.318176BR01-05, FY-3 Nov1240BR01-05, FY-3 Dec1240BR01-06, FY-1 Jan0BR01-06, FY-1 Feb0BR01-06, FY-1 Mar1054.901232BR01-06, FY-1 Apr1230.718104BR01-06, FY- 1 May1240BR01-06, FY-1 Jun1240BR01-06, FY-1 Jul1240BR01-06, FY-1 Aug1240BR01-06, FY-1 Sep1240BR01- 06, FY-1 Oct1240BR01-06, FY-1 Nov1230.718104BR01-06, FY-1 Dec1230.718104BR01-06, FY-2 Jan0BR01-06, FY-2 Feb0BR01-06, FY-2 Mar1110.022056BR01-06, FY-2 Apr1240BR01-06, FY-2 May1240BR01-06, FY-2 Jun1240BR01-06, FY-2 Jul1240BR01-06, FY-2 Aug1240BR01- 06, FY-2 Sep1240BR01-06, FY-2 Oct1240BR01-06, FY-2 Nov1240BR01-06, FY-2 Dec1240BR01-06, FY-3 Jan1119.66624BR01-06, FY-3 Feb1119.66624BR01-06, FY-3 Mar1240BR01-06, FY-3 Apr1240BR01-06, FY-3 May1240BR01-06, FY-3 Jun2239.33248BR01-06, FY-3 Jul2239.33248BR01-06, FY-3 Aug2480BR01-06, FY-3 Sep2480BR01-06, FY-3 Oct2463.265728BR01-06, FY-3 Nov1240BR01-06, FY-3 Dec1240BR01-07, FY-1 Jan5630.0448430493BR01-07, FY-1 Feb5630.0448430493BR01-07, FY-1 Mar6845.9591041869BR01-07, FY-1 Apr8067.4698795181BR01-07, FY-1 May10062.88272BR01-07, FY-1 Jun12101.2048192771BR01-07, FY-1 Jul12101.2048192771BR01-07, FY-1 Aug14571.6062176166BR01-07, FY-1 Sep14571.6062176166BR01-07, FY-1 Oct13336.0445682451BR01-07, FY-1 Nov8067.4698795181BR01-07, FY-1
  • 70. Dec8067.4698795181BR01-07, FY-2 Jan6454.6059933407BR01-07, FY-2 Feb6454.6059933407BR01-07, FY-2 Mar7705.9710144928BR01-07, FY-2 Apr8954.7305389221BR01-07, FY-2 May10944.6706586826BR01-07, FY-2 Jun13868.80704BR01- 07, FY-2 Jul13868.80704BR01-07, FY-2 Aug16461.6718266254BR01-07, FY-2 Sep16461.6718266254BR01-07, FY-2 Oct15197.5609756098BR01-07, FY-2 Nov8954.7305389221BR01-07, FY-2 Dec8954.7305389221BR01-07, FY-3 Jan7448.803130973BR01- 07, FY-3 Feb7448.803130973BR01-07, FY-3 Mar8742.8978396771BR01-07, FY-3 Apr10867.3488BR01-07, FY-3 May12029.3973542381BR01-07, FY-3 Jun15036.7466927976BR01-07, FY-3 Jul15036.7466927976BR01-07, FY-3 Aug18629.7408BR01-07, FY-3 Sep18629.7408BR01-07, FY-3 Oct16323.4814143246BR01-07, FY-3 Nov10867.3488BR01-07, FY-3 Dec10867.3488BR01-08, FY-1 Jan6971.5555555556BR01-08, FY-1 Feb6971.5555555556BR01-08, FY-1 Mar9224.30916BR01-08, FY-1 Apr10297.1553610503BR01-08, FY-1 May12299.07888BR01-08, FY-1 Jun15373.8486BR01-08, FY-1 Jul15373.8486BR01-08, FY-1 Aug17756.0935910478BR01-08, FY-1 Sep17756.0935910478BR01-08, FY-1 Oct16475.4485776805BR01-08, FY-1 Nov10297.1553610503BR01-08, FY-1 Dec9012.7043802093BR01-08, FY-2 Jan6881.11404387BR01- 08, FY-2 Feb6881.11404387BR01-08, FY-2 Mar9014.724576BR01-08, FY-2 Apr10181.85246288BR01-08, FY-2 May12019.632768BR01-08, FY-2 Jun14254.5934480321BR01-08, FY-2 Jul14254.5934480321BR01-08, FY-2 Aug17571.0796100245BR01-08, FY-2 Sep17571.0796100245BR01-08, FY-2
  • 71. Oct16290.9639406081BR01-08, FY-2 Nov10181.85246288BR01-08, FY-2 Dec10181.85246288BR01- 08, FY-3 Jan7762.392BR01-08, FY-3 Feb7762.392BR01-08, FY-3 Mar9097.8260869565BR01-08, FY-3 Apr10108.6956521739BR01-08, FY-3 May12130.4347826087BR01-08, FY-3 Jun15163.0434782609BR01-08, FY-3 Jul15163.0434782609BR01-08, FY-3 Aug18480.2207911684BR01-08, FY-3 Sep18480.2207911684BR01-08, FY-3 Oct17077.2624BR01-08, FY-3 Nov10108.6956521739BR01-08, FY-3 Dec10108.6956521739BR01-09, FY-1 Jan0BR01-09, FY-1 Feb86.5644BR01-09, FY-1 Mar422.136176BR01-09, FY-1 Apr388.761328BR01-09, FY-1 May164.429952BR01-09, FY-1 Jun86.5644BR01-09, FY-1 Jul86.5644BR01-09, FY-1 Aug0BR01-09, FY-1 Sep0BR01-09, FY-1 Oct0BR01-09, FY-1 Nov388.761328BR01-09, FY-1 Dec388.761328BR01-09, FY-2 Jan243.82636BR01-09, FY-2 Feb243.82636BR01-09, FY-2 Mar615.915712BR01-09, FY-2 Apr0BR01-09, FY-2 May241.853664BR01-09, FY-2 Jun75.74048BR01-09, FY-2 Jul75.74048BR01-09, FY-2 Aug89.183264BR01-09, FY-2 Sep89.183264BR01-09, FY-2 Oct0BR01-09, FY-2 Nov0BR01- 09, FY-2 Dec0BR01-09, FY-3 Jan607.548576BR01-09, FY-3 Feb607.548576BR01-09, FY-3 Mar0BR01-09, FY-3 Apr197.418848BR01-09, FY-3 May0BR01-09, FY-3 Jun321.38272BR01-09, FY-3 Jul321.38272BR01-09, FY-3 Aug11.35584BR01-09, FY-3 Sep11.35584BR01-09, FY-3 Oct533.989376BR01-09, FY-3 Nov197.418848BR01-09, FY-3 Dec197.4188486.21Percent Monthly Demand by Year, FY- 1BR01-01, Jan0.07BR01-01, Feb0.07BR01-01, Mar0.07BR01- 01, Apr0.07BR01-01, May0.08BR01-01, Jun0.1BR01-01, Jul0.1BR01-01, Aug0.1BR01-01, Sep0.1BR01-01, Oct0.1BR01- 01, Nov0.07BR01-01, Dec0.07BR01-02, Jan0.06BR01-02, Feb0.06BR01-02, Mar0.06BR01-02, Apr0.07BR01-02, May0.08BR01-02, Jun0.1BR01-02, Jul0.1BR01-02, Aug0.11BR01-02, Sep0.11BR01-02, Oct0.11BR01-02,