Audit Risk Model
Steps in the Audit Process
1. Client acceptance and retention
2. Planning and understanding the client
Understand client strategies and business processes (strategic and process analyses)
Risk Assessments
Planning analytics
3. Plan tests of financial statement assertions
4. Perform tests of financial statement assertions
Tests of control operating effectiveness and substantive tests
5. Wrapping up the audit
6. Audit reporting
2
Why is Risk Management So Critical to Auditors?
Fundamental to Client Acceptance:
Auditors only accept clients that have effectively managed risks unless willing to share in the costs associated with poor client risk management
Fundamental to Resource Allocation:
Auditors perform more tests related to aspects of the client presenting the highest risk exposure to the fair presentation of the financial statements
客户接受的基础:审计师只接受有效管理风险的客户,除非愿意分担与客户风险管理不良相关的成本
资源分配的基础:审计师执行更多与客户方面相关的测试,这些客户对财务报表的公允列报具有最高风险
3
Audit Risk Model
AR = IR × CR × DR
AR: Audit Risk
IR: Inherent Risk
CR: Control Risk
DR: Detection Risk
RMM: Risk of Material Misstatement
RMM
Inherent Risk: the risk of a MATERIAL misstatement assuming no internal controls.
Control Risk: the risk of the internal control failing to detect a MATERIAL misstatement.
Detection Risk: the risk of the audit procedures failing to detect a MATERIAL misstatement
Audit Risk Model
内在风险:假设没有内部控制,重大错报的风险。
控制风险:内部控制未能发现重大错报的风险。
发现风险:审计程序未能发现重大错报的风险
5
Audit Risk (AR)
Risk the auditor expresses an inappropriate opinion
The auditor determines what level of AR is acceptable for a given client
Distribution of ownership
Business risk to audit firm
Client size
Litigation environment
AR = IR × CR × DR
RMM
审核员确定给定客户可接受的AR级别
所有权分配
审计公司的业务风险
客户规模
诉讼环境
6
What is Appropriate Audit Risk?
Due Professional Care:
Methods for Minimizing Audit Risk
There is a trade-off: Maximum such that opinion can be issued without much risk that financial statements are materially misstated.
AR Evidence
Relationship between audit risk and the need for evidence is inverse
Risk of Material Misstatement (RMM)
Not directly influenced by auditor
Assessed by the auditors
Risk that financial statements are materially misstated prior to audit
AR = IR × CR × DR
RMM
不直接受审计师的影响
由审计员评估
在审计之前财务报表存在重大错报的风险
8
Inherent Risk (IR)
Susceptibility of an assertion to material misstatement (individually or in aggregate)
Assumes no related internal controls
Important factors
Client’s business
Management’s integrity
Client competence
Rush to produce financial statements
Pressure to hit key metrics
Number and nature of related parties
Routineness of transactions
AR = IR × CR × DR
RMM
声明对重大错报的敏感性(单独或合计)
假设没有相关的内部控制
重要因素
客户的业务
管理层的诚信
客户能力
急于编制财务报表
达到关键指标的压力
关联方的数量和性质
交易的常规性
9
Control Risk (CR)
Risk that internal control won’t prevent or detect and correct a material misstatement (individually or in aggregate)
Assessment based on understanding of client .
Audit Risk ModelSteps in the Audit Process1. Clien.docx
1. Audit Risk Model
Steps in the Audit Process
1. Client acceptance and retention
2. Planning and understanding the client
Understand client strategies and business processes (strategic
and process analyses)
Risk Assessments
Planning analytics
3. Plan tests of financial statement assertions
4. Perform tests of financial statement assertions
Tests of control operating effectiveness and substantive tests
5. Wrapping up the audit
6. Audit reporting
2
Why is Risk Management So Critical to Auditors?
Fundamental to Client Acceptance:
Auditors only accept clients that have effectively managed risks
unless willing to share in the costs associated with poor client
risk management
Fundamental to Resource Allocation:
2. Auditors perform more tests related to aspects of the client
presenting the highest risk exposure to the fair presentation of
the financial statements
客户接受的基础:审计师只接受有效管理风险的客户,除非愿意分担与客户风险
管理不良相关的成本
资源分配的基础:审计师执行更多与客户方面相关的测试,这些客户对财务报表
的公允列报具有最高风险
3
Audit Risk Model
AR = IR × CR × DR
AR: Audit Risk
IR: Inherent Risk
CR: Control Risk
DR: Detection Risk
RMM: Risk of Material Misstatement
RMM
Inherent Risk: the risk of a MATERIAL misstatement assuming
no internal controls.
Control Risk: the risk of the internal control failing to detect a
MATERIAL misstatement.
3. Detection Risk: the risk of the audit procedures failing to detect
a MATERIAL misstatement
Audit Risk Model
内在风险:假设没有内部控制,重大错报的风险。
控制风险:内部控制未能发现重大错报的风险。
发现风险:审计程序未能发现重大错报的风险
5
Audit Risk (AR)
Risk the auditor expresses an inappropriate opinion
The auditor determines what level of AR is acceptable for a
given client
Distribution of ownership
Business risk to audit firm
Client size
Litigation environment
AR = IR × CR × DR
RMM
审核员确定给定客户可接受的AR级别
所有权分配
审计公司的业务风险
客户规模
诉讼环境
6
4. What is Appropriate Audit Risk?
Due Professional Care:
Methods for Minimizing Audit Risk
There is a trade-off: Maximum such that opinion can be issued
without much risk that financial statements are materially
misstated.
Relationship between audit risk and the need for evidence is
inverse
Risk of Material Misstatement (RMM)
Not directly influenced by auditor
Assessed by the auditors
Risk that financial statements are materially misstated prior to
audit
AR = IR × CR × DR
RMM
不直接受审计师的影响
由审计员评估
在审计之前财务报表存在重大错报的风险
8
5. Inherent Risk (IR)
Susceptibility of an assertion to material misstatement
(individually or in aggregate)
Assumes no related internal controls
Important factors
Client’s business
Management’s integrity
Client competence
Rush to produce financial statements
Pressure to hit key metrics
Number and nature of related parties
Routineness of transactions
AR = IR × CR × DR
RMM
声明对重大错报的敏感性(单独或合计)
假设没有相关的内部控制
重要因素
客户的业务
管理层的诚信
客户能力
急于编制财务报表
达到关键指标的压力
关联方的数量和性质
交易的常规性
9
Control Risk (CR)
6. Risk that internal control won’t prevent or detect and correct a
material misstatement (individually or in aggregate)
Assessment based on understanding of client and testing of
internal control
Auditor may choose to assess control risk at maximum and
forgo testing for private clients
Important factors
Control environment (tone at the top)
Board of directors and audit committee
Internal audit
Effectiveness of accounting system
Strength of internal control system
AR = IR × CR × DR
RMM
内部控制不会阻止或发现和纠正重大错报的风险(单独或汇总)
基于对客户的理解和内部控制测试的评估
审计员可以选择最大限度地评估控制风险,并为私人客户进行放弃测试
重要因素
控制环境(顶部音调)
董事会和审计委员会
内部审计
会计制度的有效性
内部控制系统的优势
10
Detection Risk (DR)
Risk that auditor fails to detect a material misstatement
(individually or in aggregate)
Directly influenced by the auditor
Auditors reduce DR by increasing the quantity and quality of
7. their testing
Two primary components
Substantive analytical procedures
Tests of details
Auditors control AR through DR
AR = IR × CR × DR
RMM
实质性分析程序
测试细节
11
12
Auditors use this relationship during the planning phase to
determine the nature, extent, and timing of evidence to gather
for audit testing. Thus, auditors look at this relationship as
follows:
Evidence
__AR__ = DR
IR x CR
Amounts can be expressed in Relative Terms (H, M, L)
Inverse
Audit Risk Model
8. 审计师在规划阶段使用这种关系来确定收集审计测试的证据的性质,范围和时间
。 因此,审计师将这种关系看作如下
13
Relationship between inherent risk and need for evidence is
________ .
Relationship between control risk and need for evidence is
________.
Interaction of Inherent and Control Risks: RMM
direct
direct
Components of the Traditional Risk Model
Ramifications of Detection Risk Assessments
Relationship to Need for Evidence is _________
Low Detection Risk (High IR x CR and Sufficiently Low AR):
Tests of the Account Balance and/or Transactions generated by
Business Process Necessary
9. High Detection Risk (Low IR x CR and Sufficiently High AR)
Test of Process Controls and Analytical Evidence Sufficient
inverse
Reduce (achieved) detection risk by
Business Risk Auditing:
The Ultimate Goal:
Achieved Audit Risk_____Acceptable Audit Risk
Increasing substantive audit procedures
Detection Risk is Lowest for Accounts Impacted by Processes
with High Residual Business Process Risk
Audit Risk Model
增加实质审计程序
对于具有高剩余业务流程风险的流程影响的帐户,检测风险最低
16
Applying the ARMPlanned
ARIRCRRMMAggregate testingDRExample
1LowHighHighAmount of testing
HIGH
HIGH
10. HIGH
HIGH
HIGH
HIGH
LOW
Low for control percejudt
17
Applying the ARMPlanned
ARIRCRRMMAggregate testingDRExample
2LowHighLowAmount of testing
MOD
HIGH
HIGH
LOW
MOD
MOD-HIGH
LOW-MOD
11. Applying the ARMPlanned
ARIRCRRMMAggregate testingDRExample
3HighLowHighAmount of testing
MOD
LOW
LOW
HIGH
MOD
LOW -MOD
MOD - HIGH
19
Sampling Risk vs. Non-Sampling Risk
Non-sampling Risk
Analyses of past alleged audit failures indicate that such non-
sampling risk factors … are among the most significant audit
risk factors and sources of auditor liability.
12. Montgomery’s Auditing, 10th Edition [1985]
*
07/16/96
*
##
抽样风险与非抽样风险对过去涉嫌审计失败的分析表明,此类非抽样风险因素....
..是最重要的审计风险因素和审计师责任来源。
Sampling vs. Non-Sampling Risk
Detection risk (DR) is a function of sampling risk (SR) and non-
sampling risk (NSR).
SR arises from the possibility that the auditor’s conclusion
would change if audit procedures were applied to the entire
population.
NSR arises from factors that cause the auditor to reach an
erroneous conclusion for any reason other than the size of the
sample (ISAs).
Judgment errors (e.g., biases)
*
07/16/96
*
##
检测风险(DR)是抽样风险(SR)和非抽样风险(NSR)的函数。
13. 如果审计程序适用于整个人口,审计师的结论可能会发生变化,从而产生SR。
NSR源于导致审核员因样本量(ISA)以外的任何原因而得出错误结论的因素
。
判断错误(例如,偏见)
Sources of Non-sampling Risk
Auditors’ belief formation and revision may be faulty, resulting
in inaccurate assessment(s) of any component of the audit risk
model.
Misinterpretation or misapplication of accounting principles and
auditing standards.
Failure to obtain an understanding of the entity and its
environment sufficient for assessing the components of audit
risk.
Failure to obtain sufficient, appropriate audit evidence when
responding to preliminary assessments初步评估 of such
components.
*
07/16/96
*
##
审计师的信念形成和修订可能有误,导致审计风险模型的任何组成部分的评估不
准确。
会计原则和审计标准的误解或误用。
未能充分了解实体及其环境,足以评估审计风险的组成部分。
在回应对这些组成部分的初步评估时未能获得充分,适当的审计证据。
Guidance on Non-sampling Risk
14. U.S. authoritative guidance does not explicitly represent it in
the ARM, instead suggests that risk can be reduced to a
negligible level 降低到可忽略的风险through appropriate planning,
supervision and quality control mechanisms.
NSR could be a source of detection risk that produces distorted
assessments of RMM and DR.
*
07/16/96
*
##
美国权威指南没有在ARM中明确表示,而是建议通过适当的规划,监督和质量
控制机制将风险降低到可以忽略的程度。
NSR可能是检测风险的来源,导致对RMM和DR的扭曲评估。
(1) Recursive Risk Assessment: SSA auditors manage NSR by
viewing the entire audit as a recursive process of evidence-
driven, belief-based assessment.
That is, auditors should continually update their risk
assessments as they gather evidence.
(2) Self-criticism: Auditors should be skeptical of their own
judgment and decision making ability and consider the potential
fallibility of their judgments.
Reducing NSR
15. *
07/16/96
*
##
(1)递归风险评估:SSA审核员通过将整个审核视为以证据为基础,基于信念
的评估的递归过程来管理NSR。
也就是说,审核员在收集证据时应不断更新风险评估。
(2)自我批评:审计师应该对自己的判断和决策能力持怀疑态度,并考虑他们
判断的潜在可能性。
(3) Non-Financial KPI’s: Auditors should consider KPI’s that
the client uses to run its business but not typically used in
financial reporting.
Google example: cost per click, click through rates, search
usage, etc.
These KPI’s help the auditor form expectations for financial
statement assertions AND are less prone to management
manipulation.
Divergence of these KPI’s with F/S performance is highly
associated with fraud
(Brazel et al.2006)
(3)非财务关键绩效指标:审计师应考虑客户用于经营业务的关键绩效指标,
但通常不用于财务报告。
Google示例:每次点击费用,点击率,搜索使用情况等。
这些KPI有助于审计师形成对财务报表断言的期望,并且不太容易受到管理层的
操纵。
这些KPI与F / S表现的分歧与欺诈密切相关
26
17. This program simulation package is designed to illustrate
different managerial decision making concepts and to offer
hands-on experience to the students who are taking the graduate
course AD 715 Quantitative and Qualitative Decision-Making at
Boston University, Metropolitan College. The program
simulation package is property of and is provided by Dr.
Vladimir Zlatev. Permission to use, copy and distribute this
simulation without fee is hereby granted, provided that the
above copyright notice appear in all copies and that both the
copyright and this notice appear in supporting documentation,
and that the name Dr. Vladimir Zlatev not be used in
advertising or publicity pertaining to distribution of this
documentation without specific, written permission..
HelpHelp MenuA. Navigation within the business simulationE.
Page '36-Mo-Fin-Pr'H. Page 'Mktg-Mgt'testI. Page 'Inn-Mgt'F.
Page 'Performance'B. Introduction to the business simulationJ.
Page 'Oper-Mgt'Tutorial to the Business Simulation 'Strategies
and Decision Support in Organizations'G. Page 'D-Analysis'C.
Page 'Project-ID'K. Page 'Fin-Mgt'Yellow cells indicate fields
you should edit; others are not editable.L. Page 'Org-Mgt'D.
Page 'Project-Start'A. Navigation within the business
simulation1.Simulation software: installation
requirements2.Layouts 3.Tab ‘Sim-Navigator’4.Task
List5.Force Calculation6.Submit Results7.Choose cycle to
calculate8.Export9.Go Back to ‘Sim-Navigator’10.Indicator:
Current Cycle11.HelpD. Page 'Project-Start'1.Critical Success
Factors (CSF)2.Key Performance Indicators (KPI)E. Page '36-
Mo-Fin-Pr'1.Sales Projection2.Prices and Variable Costs per
product3.Annual fixed costs4.12 month Proforma5.Financial
summary: per FY and overallF. Page 'Performance'1.Key
Success Indicators2.Key Performance Indicators3.Efficiency
Ratios4.Trend AnalysisG. Page 'D-Analysis'1.Break-Even
Analysis2.What-if Analysis3.Sensitivity Analysis*LINK TO
TUTORIAL HERE*4.Optimization Analysis*LINK TO
TUTORIAL HERE*5.Risk AnalysisH. Page 'Mktg-
Mgt'1.Marketing Costs2.Product Description3.Targeted Market
18. Size4.Sales ProjectionsI. Page 'Inn-Mgt'1.Product Name &
DescriptionJ. Page 'Oper-Mgt'1.Forecast for the nest three
years2.Targeted Market Size3.Sales ProjectionK. Page 'Fin-
Mgt'1.Miscellaneous Factors2.DebtL. Page 'Org-
Mgt'1.Employess2.Employee Compensation
http://probarserv.com/quantities-for-beer-and-wine-bar.html)
Sim-Navigatorcurrent cycle0Permission for next
CycleNoCurrent Decision CycleConformation Last cycle endC =
0YesCurrent Input Parameters tableWhich Section in
changetable in process is N/AN/ACycle In
calculation0Permision to create printoutsNoPasswordsVZ-
StartVZ-MCSChosen underlying cycle0comments:Inputs from
MS Excel to be used for MS Project(we will provide a
demo)OPTIONAL for studentsCheck
&8&K002060BU MET AD715 OL:
Quantitative and Qualitative Decision-Making
&8&K002060Business Simulation:
Strategies and Decision Support in Organizations
&8&K002060Copyright 2012 by Dr. Vladimir Zlatev
All Rights Reserved
&8&K002060&F &8&K002060&A &8&K002060&P
Sim-Navigator
?
test
YES
NO
A. Navigation within the business simulation
B. Introduction to the business simulation
C. Page 'Project-ID'
D. Page 'Project-Start'
E. Page 'Mktg-Mgt'
F. Page 'Inn-Mgt'
G. Page 'Oper-Mgt'
H. Page 'Fin-Mgt'
19. I. Page 'Org-Mgt'
J. Page '36-Mo-Fin-Pr'
K. Page 'Performance'
L. Page 'D-Analysis'
M. Page 'Impl-Plan'
N. Page 'Sim-Report'
O. Page 'Printout Reports'
Project-Start1OVERALL BUSINESS PARAMETERS OF THE
PROJECT (BUSINESS UNIT: next 36 Months of
Operations)1.1Critical Success FactorsFY-0FY-1FY-2FY-
3FY1+FY2+FY3CSF 1:Introducing an individually controlled
brand (utilization in %)[%]85.08%90.57%98.80%91.48%CSF
2:Retention of critical technology personnel[number]112CSF
3:Retention of critical marketing personnel[number]1121.2Key
Performance IndicatorsFY-0FY-1FY-2FY-3FY1+FY2+FY3KPI
1:Actual size of the local
market[units]15,000,000103.00%106.00%110.00%KPI
2:Number of customers- existing business[customers]90,000KPI
3:Average consumption per existing customer[units]2.00KPI
4:Size of the penetrated market - without new
project[%]105.00%110.00%115.00%*[units]180,000189,000198
,000207,000594,000KPI 5:Projected increase of the penetrated
market - with new project[%]220%KPI 6:Projected structure of
the annual sales, new penetr.
market[%]31.00%33.00%36.00%100.00%Projected sales, new
brand[units]405,108431,244470,4481,306,800KPI 7:Projected
consumption in the existing business, new brand
only[%]31.0%33.0%34.0%32.74%**[units]125,583142,311159,
952427,846Projected beer consumption (new brand % of
all)[%]66%72%77%Wholesale distribution (new
brand)[%]69.00%67.00%66.00%67.26%***[units]279,525288,9
33310,496878,954KPI 8:Capacity of the new technology (max
units/year)[units]476,160476,160476,160476,1602FIXED-
COST2.0Initial InvestmentEquipment$ 150,000Total$
20. 150,0002.1EmployeesSalary increasePositionBudgetNumberFY-
2FY-3Office Assistants$ 25,00011.111.2Salesmen $
67,5001.51.111.2Executive Salaries $
32,5000.51.111.2Miscellaneous (Consultants)$
5,0001.111.2FY-1FY-2FY-
3Total$130,000$144,300$173,1602.2Range of compensations
for critical workersPositionImportanceMinBaseMarket
ResearchMaxSalesmenCritical$26,000$30,000$28,000$32,000S
alesmen$23,000$24,000$25,000$27,000WorkerCritical$25,000$
30,000$29,000$32,000Worker$15,000$20,000$20,000$22,0002.
3Utilities, Supplies and othersPaymentPayment increaseFY-
1FY-2FY-3Leasing of cars, computers, etc$
8,0001.111.2Office Supply$ 4,0001.111.2Heat, Light, Phone$
7,0001.111.2Insurance$ 7,0001.111.2Depreciation$
7,5001.90.9FY-1FY-2FY-
3Total$33,500$43,110$47,4572.4Marketing
costsPaymentPayment increaseFY-1FY-2FY-3Local
Advertising$ 35,0001.111.2Trade Shows$
3,0001.111.2Total$38,000$42,180$50,6162.5RentPayment
increasePaymentSpace (ft^2)FY-2FY-3Office$
5,0002001.111.2WarehouseFY-1FY-2FY-
3Total$5,000$5,550$6,6602.6DebtLoanAmountInterest
ratelength (months)payments/yearDate startBank of
America$40,00010.0%3612FY-1 JanFY-1FY-2FY-3Total
DebtTotal$15,391$15,391$15,391$40,0002.7DepreciationFY-
1FY-2FY-3MACRS (15 yr schedule)5.00%9.50%8.55%Tax
Shelter$2,625$4,987.50$4,488.752.8Financial Market
IndicatorsPercentageExpected Return on Investment5.0%Risk-
Free Interest rate1.0%3TAXES & FEES3.1TaxesTaxes
typePercentageProfit35.00%3.2FeesTypeAmmountlicense to sell
alcoholTotal4PRODUCT DESCRIPTION4.1. Product Name &
Description Variable CostsMaterial LaborOthersPriceUnitsCut
off pointWeightWeight (full)HeightDiameterProduct
IDDistributionName(per unit)(per unit)(per unit)(per
unit)(Pints)(lb)(lb)(inches)(inches)BR01-
01[retail]Pilsner0.560.300.30$4.0010.81.051.300NOTES:BR01-
46. 90531478094025min consumption deviation-2.00%consumption
deviation-5.44%max consumption
deviation2.00%ContributionProjected$708,764$159,811.58$178
,680.09$58,010.38$50,314.65$50,314.65$58,010.38$66,669.68$
84,990.09$1,962.23Fixed Costs (Please enter manually)Profit
before TaxesProjected$708,764Targeted Market size
recommended for next
cycle:25.82%28.87%12.13%10.52%10.52%12.13%45.67%54.33
%5RISK ANALYSISCycle used for MCS: Total iterations:
100 Current Interaction: 0Cycle used in
calculation0Average (Profit)Failure rate (Profit)Standard
Deviation (Profit)Cycle used in calculationAverage
(Profit)Failure rate (Profit)Standard Deviation (Profit)Cycle
used in calculationAverage (Profit)Failure rate (Profit)Standard
Deviation (Profit)Cycle used in calculationAverage
(Profit)Failure rate (Profit)Standard deviation (Profit)Average
(IRR)Failure rate (Return on investment)Standard deviation
(IRR)
&8BU MET AD715: Quantitative and Qualitative Decision-
Making
2014 Professor Vladimir Zlatev &8Business Simulation:
Strategies and Decision Support in Organizations &8Copyright
2014 by Dr. Vladimir Zlatev
All Rights Reserved
&8File Name: &F &8&A &8
Page &P of &N
Break-Even Analysis Chart: BRAND 01
Total Fixed Costs 0 8.1269521946897054 221891.3
221891.3 Break-Even Point 8.1269521946897054
494808.52424172848 Total Revenue 0
8.1269521946897054 0 494808.52424172848
Total Cost 0 8.1269521946897054 221891.3
47. 494808.52424172848
Months
Total Revenue [$]
36 month profit after taxes
D-Analysis
Change # of iterations
Go Back to Sim-Navigator
Choose cycle to calculate
Run Monte-Carlo Simulation
Reset
Change Cycle
Advance Options
Run Series
Unprotect Spreadsheet
Protect Spreadsheet
PerformanceCurrent Cycle 0Calculating 01Key Success
IndicatorsFrom Project-StartFY-0FY-1FY-2FY-
3FY1+FY2+FY3Introducing an individually controlled brand
(utilization in %)[%]85.08%90.57%98.80%91.48%Retain of
critical technology personnel[number]1121.33Retain of critical
marketing personnel[number]1121.33From Current CycleFY-
0FY-1FY-2FY-3FY1+FY2+FY3Introducing an individually
controlled brand (utilization in
%)[%]78.14%83.85%95.31%85.77%Retention of critical
technology personnel[number]1121.33Retention of critical
marketing personnel[number]1121.332Key Performance
IndicatorsFrom Project-StartFY-0FY-1FY-2FY-
3FY1+FY2+FY3KPI 1:Actual size of the local
48. market[units]15,000,000103%106%110%KPI 2:Number of
customers- existing business[customers]90,000KPI 3:Average
consumption per existing customer[units]2.0KPI 4:Size of the
penetrated market - without new
project[%]0%105%110%115%[units]180,000189,000198,00020
7,000594,000KPI 5:Overall increase of the penetrated market -
with new project[%]220%KPI 6:Projected structure of the
annual sales, new penetr.
market[%]31.00%33.00%36.00%100.00%Projected sales, new
brand[units]405,108431,244470,4481,306,800KPI 7:Projected
consumption in the existing business, new brand
only[%]31.0%33.0%34.0%32.74%[units]125,583142,311159,95
2427,846Projected beer consumption (new brand % of
all)[%]66%72%77%Wholesale distribution (new
brand)[%]69%67%66%67.26%[units]279,525288,933310,49687
8,954KPI 8:Capacity of the new technology (max
units/year)[units]476,160476,160476,160476,160From Current
CycleFY-0FY-1FY-2FY-3FY1+FY2+FY3KPI 1:Actual size of
the local market[units]15,000,000103%106%110%KPI
2:Number customers- existing business[customers]90,000KPI
3:Average consumption per existing customer[units]2KPI 4:Size
of the penetrated market - without new
project[%]0%105%110%115%[units]180,000189,000198,00020
7,000594,000KPI 5:Overall increase of the penetrated market -
with new project[%]220%KPI 6:Projected structure of the
annual sales, new penetr. market[%]0.00%Projected sales, new
brand[units]372,087399,280453,8401,225,207KPI 7:Projected
consumption in the existing business, new brand
only[%]28%30%33%30.64%[units]105,225119,713150,469375,
406Projected beer consumption (new brand % of
all)[%]56%60%73%Wholesale distribution (new
brand)[%]72%70%67%69.36%[units]266,862279,567303,37184
9,800KPI 8:Capacity of the new technology (max
units/year)[units]476,160476,160476,160476,160Projected
consumption current cycle VS Project-Start [Retail]Projected
consumption current cycle VS Project-Start
49. [Wholesale]Recommended additional value for next cycleFY-
1FY-2FY-3FY-1FY-2FY-3FY-1FY-2FY-3Project-
start125,583142,311159,952Project-
start279,525288,933310,496Project
Start405,108431,244470,448Current
cycle105,225119,713150,469Current
cycle266,862279,567303,371Current
Cycle372,087399,280453,84083.8%84.1%94.1%95.5%96.8%97.
7%Recommended Value33,02131,96416,6083 EFFICIENCY
RATIOS1. Total Sales/Type of Product [%]BR01-01,BR01-
02,BR01-03,BR01-04,BR01-05,BR01-06,BR01-07,BR01-
08,BR01-09,FY-
114.91%16.67%5.84%5.06%5.06%5.84%20.37%25.90%0.34%F
Y-
216.46%15.78%7.27%5.36%5.36%5.36%20.95%23.21%0.26%F
Y-
315.31%14.63%7.77%6.71%6.71%7.58%20.23%20.65%0.40%T
otal 3
years15.57%15.61%7.04%5.79%5.79%6.35%20.50%23.03%0.34
%2. Total Variable Costs/Type of Product [%]BR01-01,BR01-
02,BR01-03,BR01-04,BR01-05,BR01-06,BR01-07,BR01-
08,BR01-09,FY-
17.84%8.36%3.33%2.89%2.89%3.33%31.60%39.23%0.55%FY-
28.83%8.08%4.26%3.12%3.12%3.12%33.17%35.88%0.43%FY-
38.45%7.71%4.68%4.04%4.04%4.56%32.96%32.87%0.68%Tota
l 3
years8.39%8.03%4.13%3.39%3.39%3.72%32.61%35.78%0.56%
3. Total Contribution/Type of Product [%]BR01-01,BR01-
02,BR01-03,BR01-04,BR01-05,BR01-06,BR01-07,BR01-
08,BR01-09,FY-
123.61%26.90%8.93%7.74%7.74%8.93%6.56%9.50%0.09%FY-
225.42%24.83%10.82%8.00%8.00%8.00%6.58%8.30%0.06%FY
-
322.90%22.29%11.19%9.67%9.67%10.92%6.14%7.13%0.09%T
otal 3
years23.92%24.43%10.42%8.58%8.58%9.41%6.40%8.19%0.08
50. %4.FY-1FY-2FY-3Fixed Costs/Total Revenue of BRAND 01
[$]$0.31$0.33$0.33The company spends $0.XX fixed costs for
the overall sale of $1.00 from BRAND
015.Compensations/Total Revenue of BRAND 01
[$]$0.18$0.18$0.18The company spends $0.XX costs for
compensation needed for the overall sale of $1.00 from
BRAND 016.(Local Advertising + Trade Shows)/Total Revenue
Sales [$]$0.05$0.05$0.05The company spends $0.XX costs for
advertising & trade shows needed for the overall sale of $1.00
from BRAND 017.FY-1FY-2FY-3Profit B.T. / Total Revenue of
BRAND 01 [$]$0.13$0.13$0.15The company make $0.XX
overall profit before taxes for the overall sale of $1.00 from
BRAND 014Trend AnalysisFY-1FY-2FY-
3FY1+FY2+FY3Revenue$ 730,619$ 801,333$ 938,767$
2,470,718Expenses$ 402,981$ 433,032$ 493,137$
1,329,150Total contribution$ 327,638$ 368,300$ 445,630$
1,141,568FY-1FY-2FY-3FY1+FY2+FY3Profit Before Taxes$
98,246$ 103,519$ 139,521$ 341,286Fixed Costs$
229,391$ 264,781$ 306,109$ 800,282FY-1FY-2FY-
3FY1+FY2+FY3Marketing Cost$ 38,000$ 42,180$ 50,616$
130,796Compensation$ 130,000$ 144,300$ 173,160$
447,460Other costs$ 68,891$ 92,551$ 95,158$ 256,601FY-
1FY-2FY-3Q-1Q-2Q-3Q-4Q-1Q-2Q-3Q-4Q-1Q-2Q-3Q-
4Revenue$103,325$196,454$241,450$189,389$128,021$206,38
4$263,353$203,575$165,315$225,443$315,024$232,985Expens
es$61,517$105,443$134,580$101,441$71,258$109,537$144,074
$108,162$86,975$118,921$165,614$121,628Contribution$41,80
8$91,011$106,870$87,948$56,763$96,846$119,279$95,413$78,
340$106,522$149,410$111,358Fixed
Costs$57,348$57,348$57,348$57,348$66,195$66,195$66,195$6
6,195$76,527$76,527$76,527$76,527Profit (B.
T.)($15,539)$33,663$49,522$30,600($9,433)$30,651$53,083$2
9,217$1,812$29,995$72,883$34,830RevenueExpensesContributi
onFixed CostsProft BT
&8BU MET AD715: Quantitative and Qualitative Decision-
Making
51. 2014 Vladimir Zlatev &8Business Simulation:
Strategies and Decision Support in Organizations &8Copyright
2014 by Dr. Vladimir Zlatev
All Rights Reserved
&8File Name: &F &8&A &8
Page &P of &N
FY-3
Marketing CostCompensation Other costs 50616 173160
95158.295580719074
Fixed Costs Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 66195.323895179768
66195.323895179768 66195.323895179768 6619
5.323895179768
Profit (B. T.) Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 -9432.5866160125515
30650.987933843135 53083.348305568346
29217.355101300363
Revenue Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 165314.9083160148
225442.96867517338 315023.92458998109
232985.32 414678138
55. R W 0.28279631532949412 0.71720368467050588
[类别名称]
[百分比]
R W 0.33 0.66999999999999993
R W 0.29982213769138155 0.70017786230861845
FY-1
Marketing CostCompensation Other costs 38000 130000
68891.295580719161
[类别名称]
[百分比]
R W 0.34 0.65999999999999992
R W 0.33154563938672998 0.66845436061327002
Project-Start 125583.48 142310.52000000002
159952.32000000001 Current Cycle FY-1FY-2FY-3
105224.70939593052 119712.98313741482
150468.67297927354 Percentage
0.83788655479152607 0.84120965292948691
0.9407095375626533
Project-start 279524.51999999996 288933.48
310495.67999999993 Current Cycle FY-1FY-2FY-3
266861.85500406951 279567.01686258521
303371.3270207264 Percentage
0.95469926933089644 0.96758263134679035
0.97705490466317102
56. Efficiency Ratio of Task 4,5,6
Fixed cost/Total overall sales FY-1FY-2FY-3
0.31396860953434924 0.33042624573727902
0.32607585757048319 Compensations/total overall sales
FY-1FY-2FY-30.17793142122562766
0.18007505838097945 0.18445469089655872
(Advertising + Trade Shows)/Total overall sales FY-1
FY-2FY-35.2010723127491165E-2
5.2637324757517069E-2 5.3917525031301781E-2
Efficiency Ratio of Task 7
Profit B.T. / Total Revenue of BRAND 01 [$ ] FY-1FY-2
FY-30.13447013288304976 0.12918370635375573
0.14862111068286935
FY-1
Revenue Expenses Total contribution 402980.89562727924
327637.67137192556
FY-2
Revenue Expenses Total contribution 433032.11790878535
368300.40030541836
FY-3
Expenses Total contribution 493137.21724897868
58. 57347.823895179783 57347.823895179783
57347.823895179783
FY-3Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 1812.1872482810104
29995.023156018939 72882.985863304973
34830.41663 0647931 FY-2-9432.5866160125515
30650.987933843135 53083.348305568346
29217.355101300363 FY-1-15539.402508628729
33663.360331078118 49522.058795351724
30600.359173405363
Retention of critical technology personnel
Retain of critical technology personnel FY-1FY-2FY-31 1
2 Retention of critical technology personnel FY-1
FY-2FY-31 1 2
Retention of critical marketing personnel
Retain of critical marketi ng personnel FY-1FY-2FY-31 1
2 Retention of critical marketing personnelFY-1FY-2
FY-31 1 2
FY-1
Profit Before Taxes Fixed Costs 103519.1047246993
264781.29558071907
FY-1
Profit Before Taxes Fixed Costs 98246.375791206476
229391.29558071916
59. Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 128021.21140539796
206383.50944394595 263352.80732837977
203574.99003648001
Expenses Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 71258.474126230736
109537.19761492303 144074.13512763169
108162. 31103999988
Contribution Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Q-4 56762.737279167224
96846.311829022918 119278.67220074811 954
12.678996480143
In a successful decision cycle, efficiency ratios should decrease
each year
In a successful decision cycle, efficiency ratios should increase
each year
II: Total Contribution- Fixed Costs
III: Fixed Cost Structure
I: Product Structure
Sim-ReportCurrentCycle 0 Cycle in Calculation 0
Cycle for Monte-Carlo Simulation Cycles StartCycle 01Cycle
02Cycle 03Cycle 04Cycle 05Cycle 06Cycle 07Underlying
Cycles0Department#Selected metrics for analyzing and
evaluating the efficiency of projects or investmentsTotal
revenue, Total2,470,718Total Revenue, FY1730,619Total
Revenue, FY2801,333Total Revenue, FY3938,767Profit Before
Taxes, Total341,286Profit Before Taxes, FY-198,246Profit
Before Taxes, FY-2103,519Profit Before Taxes, FY-
3139,521Net Profit (After Taxes), Total221,836Net Profit
(After Taxes), FY-163,860Net Profit (After Taxes), FY-
267,287Net Profit (After Taxes), FY-390,688Invested
Capital(150,000)Profit BT/Total Revenue (36 Month)0.14Net
60. Profit/Total Revenue (36 Month)0.09Break Even Point:
Months8Break Even Point: Revenue494,809Ending Cash
Balance (End of FY-1)(86,140)Return On Investment
(ROI)1.48Internal Rate of Return (IRR)21.0%Discount
Rate5.0%Risk-Free Rate1.0%Net Present Value50,191Duration
(3 year to maturity, 10% coupon Bond)2.7692Duration
(Project)2.0875Standard Deviation (Profit)Failure rate (Return
On Investment)Standard Deviation (IRR)Sharpe Ratio
(Applying Risk-Free Interest Rate)Sharpe Ratio (Applying
Expected Return on Investment)Average (Profit)Average
(IRR)#Business Indicators1.1Critical Success
FactorsIntroducing an individually controlled brand (utilization
in %), FY-10.85078125Introducing an individually controlled
brand (utilization in %), FY-20.9056703629Introducing an
individually controlled brand (utilization in %), FY-
30.9880040323Retention of critical technology personnel, FY-
11Retention of critical technology personnel, FY-21Retention
of critical technology personnel, FY-32Retention of critical
marketing personnel, FY-11Retention of critical marketing
personnel, FY-21Retention of critical marketing personnel,
FY-321.2Key Performance IndicatorsActual size of the local
market [units], FY-015000000Actual size of the local market
[units], FY-11.03Actual size of the local market [units], FY-
21.06Actual size of the local market [units], FY-31.1Actual size
of the local market [units], FY1+FY2+FY3Number of
customers- existing business [customers], FY-090000Number of
customers- existing business [customers], FY-1Number of
customers- existing business [customers], FY-2Number of
customers- existing business [customers], FY-3Number of
customers- existing business [customers],
FY1+FY2+FY3Average consumption per existing customer
[units], FY-02Average consumption per existing customer
[units], FY-1Average consumption per existing customer
[units], FY-2Average consumption per existing customer
[units], FY-3Average consumption per existing customer
[units], FY1+FY2+FY3Size of the penetrated market - without
61. new project [%], FY-0Size of the penetrated market - without
new project [%], FY-11.05Size of the penetrated market -
without new project [%], FY-21.1Size of the penetrated market
- without new project [%], FY-31.15Size of the penetrated
market - without new project [%], FY1+FY2+FY3* [units], FY-
0180000* [units], FY-1189000* [units], FY-2198000* [units],
FY-3207000* [units], FY1+FY2+FY3594000Projected increase
of the penetrated market - with new project [%], FY-0Projected
increase of the penetrated market - with new project [%], FY-
1Projected increase of the penetrated market - with new project
[%], FY-2Projected increase of the penetrated market - with
new project [%], FY-3Projected increase of the penetrated
market - with new project [%], FY1+FY2+FY32.2Projected
structure of the annual sales, new penetr. market [%], FY-
0Projected structure of the annual sales, new penetr. market
[%], FY-10.31Projected structure of the annual sales, new
penetr. market [%], FY-20.33Projected structure of the annual
sales, new penetr. market [%], FY-30.36Projected structure of
the annual sales, new penetr. market [%],
FY1+FY2+FY31Projected sales, new brand [units], FY-
0Projected sales, new brand [units], FY-1405108Projected sales,
new brand [units], FY-2431244Projected sales, new brand
[units], FY-3470448Projected sales, new brand [units],
FY1+FY2+FY31306800Projected consumption in the existing
business, new brand only [%], FY-0Projected consumption in
the existing business, new brand only [%], FY-10.31Projected
consumption in the existing business, new brand only [%], FY-
20.33Projected consumption in the existing business, new brand
only [%], FY-30.34Projected consumption in the existing
business, new brand only [%], FY1+FY2+FY30.3274** [units],
FY-0** [units], FY-1125583.48** [units], FY-2142310.52**
[units], FY-3159952.32** [units],
FY1+FY2+FY3427846.32Projected beer consumption (new
brand % of all) [%], FY-0Projected beer consumption (new
brand % of all) [%], FY-10.6644628571Projected beer
consumption (new brand % of all) [%], FY-20.71874Projected
62. beer consumption (new brand % of all) [%], FY-
30.7727165217Projected beer consumption (new brand % of all)
[%], FY1+FY2+FY3Wholesale distribution (new brand) [%],
FY-0Wholesale distribution (new brand) [%], FY-
10.69Wholesale distribution (new brand) [%], FY-
20.67Wholesale distribution (new brand) [%], FY-
30.66Wholesale distribution (new brand) [%],
FY1+FY2+FY30.6726*** [units], FY-0*** [units], FY-
1279524.52*** [units], FY-2288933.48*** [units], FY-
3310495.68*** [units], FY1+FY2+FY3878953.68Capacity of
the new technology (max units/year) [units], FY-
0476160Capacity of the new technology (max units/year)
[units], FY-1476160Capacity of the new technology (max
units/year) [units], FY-2476160Capacity of the new technology
(max units/year) [units], FY-3476160Capacity of the new
technology (max units/year) [units], FY1+FY2+FY32.0Private
Investment$150,000.002.1EmployeesOffice Assistants,
Budget$25,000.00Office Assistants, Number1Office Assistants,
Salary increase FY-21.11Office Assistants, FY-31.2Salesmen ,
Budget$67,500.00Salesmen , Number1.5Salesmen , Salary
increase FY-21.11Salesmen , FY-31.2Executive Salaries ,
Budget$32,500.00Executive Salaries , Number0.5Executive
Salaries , Salary increase FY-21.11Executive Salaries , FY-
31.2Miscellaneous (Consultants),
Budget$5,000.00Miscellaneous (Consultants), Salary increase
FY-21.11Miscellaneous (Consultants), FY-31.22.11Total
Salaries Budget, FY-1$130,000.002.12Total Salaries Budget,
FY-2$144,300.002.13Total Salaries Budget, FY-
3$173,160.002.2Range of compensations for critical
workersCritical Salesmen, Min$26,000.00Critical Salesmen,
Base$30,000.00Critical Salesmen, Market
Research$28,000.00Critical Salesmen, Max$32,000.00
Salesmen, Min$23,000.00 Salesmen, Base$24,000.00 Salesmen,
Market Research$25,000.00 Salesmen, Max$27,000.00Critical
Worker, Min$25,000.00Critical Worker, Base$30,000.00Critical
Worker, Market Research$29,000.00Critical Worker,