This document discusses the persuasiveness of presidential campaign advertisements. It defines persuasiveness conceptually as the ability to sway voter opinion and operationally as measuring attitude shifts after viewing ads. Previous research is summarized that examined persuasiveness in relation to political awareness, rate of ad effect decay, and cognitive dissonance. The document recommends defining persuasiveness as altering long-term voter attitudes and voting decisions. It proposes a research method using large-scale interviews over time to test the hypotheses that less aware voters and those with more party dissonance will be more persuadable.

1. Persuasiveness of Presidential
Advertisements
Caroline Fagan

2. Existing Conceptual and Operational Definitions
Conceptual: the ability to sway voter opinion on candidate preference
Operational: measure shifts in voter attitude after the view presidential campaign
advertisements (using surveys and scales including attitude tests, feeling
thermometers, etc.)

3. Previous Research: Persuasiveness as it Pertains to...
Political Awareness (Arceneaux & Huber, 2007; Gerber, Gimpel, Green & Shaw, 2011)
Rate of Decay (Hill, Lo, Vavreck & Zaller, 2013; Valentino, Hutchings & Williams, 2004)
Cognitive Dissonance in Political Party Choice (Vraga, 2009)
Voter Mood (Turner, Underhill & Kaid, 2013)
Broad and Narrow Appeals (Hersh & Schaffner, 2013)
Message Sidedness (“Party Identification,” 2012)
Racial Cues (Valentino, Traugott & Hutchings, 2002)

4. Commonalities and Distinctions
Geographical Locations Focus
How long does the persuasive effect last?
Appeals
Type of Election
Who can be persuaded?
Size of Experiment

5. Recommended Definitions: Long Term Focus
Conceptual: Advertising which has the ability to alter voter attitude and preference for
a certain candidate and also impacts final voting decision
Operational: The measure in change in attitude and candidate preference as they
pertain to final voting decision

6. Research Question
For voters in the United States, controlling for voter characteristics and other
campaign activities, what is the relationship between persuasiveness of presidential
campaign advertising and long-term impact on voting decision?

7. Previous Methods
How long does the persuasive effect last? (Arceneaux & Huber, 2007)
Persuasive rate of decay (Hill, Lo, Vavreck & Zaller, 2013)
Inoculating effects of negative advertising (Vraga, 2009)

8. Suggested Research Method
Social Scientific
Large-scale telephone interview for those in nonbattleground states
Measure attitudes, political awareness, cognitive dissonance towards political party
Interview participants multiple times over campaign period

9. Hypotheses
H1: Less politically aware voters will be more easily persuaded over a long period of time
than those who are more politically aware
H2: Voters who experience more cognitive dissonance towards their political party choice
will be more easily persuaded than those who experience less cognitive dissonance