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Leadership 2019 Session #3 "History and Governance" with Chamber President and CEO Aaron Nelson

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The Chamber For a Greater Chapel Hill-Carrboro
The Chamber For a Greater Chapel Hill-Carrboro

This is the first of several "101s" that The Chamber President and CEO, Aaron Nelson, delivers to the 2019 Class of Leadership Chapel Hill-Carrboro. This presentation helped frame Session #3 "History and Governance," provided an overview of our region's history and governmental structure, and provided more context to establish a greater sense of place among Leadership participants. The underwriting sponsor of Leadership Chapel Hill-Carrboro 2019 is the Small Business Energy Initiative and Wells Fargo. The session sponsor is Bryan Properties & Southern Village.

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“To serve and advance the business interests of our community and create a sustainable community where business thrives”
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“To apply business leadership to solve community problems and identify opportunities”
•Convene Leaders •Educate and Inform the Community •Build Organizational Capacity •Research and Report
Government
Orange County + Chatham County + Neighbors
• https://www.townofcarrboro.org/248/Board-of-Aldermen • https://chapelhill.legistar.com/People.aspx • https://www.orangecountync.gov/953/Board-of-County- Commissioners-BOCC • https://www.arcgis.com/apps/View/index.html?appid=b0bb761c5070 426ab3b4a30fc98af110 • https://www.arcgis.com/apps/View/index.html?appid=448c16eb75554 05eb7a93448b5c2514a • https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Carolina%27s_congressional_distri cts • US Presidential map
2018 Community Data Book Data Produced in Partnership with:
Shakespeare
A video about data
Ping Pong and Perspective
Geography
Orange County + Chatham County + Neighbors
Orange County Total Value Per Acre Source: Urban3
Southern Orange County Planning Jurisdictions Town of Chapel Hill
Assessed Value Per Acre Source: Urban3
Source 2012-2016 American Community Survey Orange County Land Distribution Chapel Hill 5% Carrboro 2% Hillsborough 1% Mebane 0.5% Rest of Orange 92%
Orange County 56,494 Housing Units Distribution Percentage Source 2012-2016 American Community Survey Chapel Hill 36% Carrboro 17% Hillsborough 4% Mebane 2% Rest of Orange 41%
Income
Chapel Hill Second Highest in Nation with BA+ Percent of Residents 25+ with Bachelors degree or higher (2012-16) Source: U.S. Census Bureau Cambridge (MA), 74.9% Chapel Hill, 74.6% Carrboro, 69.1% Orange County, 57.7% Charlottesville (VA), 50.0% Chatham County, 38.8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Cambridge (MA) Chapel Hill (NC) Ann Arbor (MI) Boulder (CO) Berkeley (CA) Carrboro (NC) Evanston (IL) Amherst (MA) Sunnyvale (CA) Corvallis (OR) Orange County (NC) Santa Clara (CA) Bloomington (IN) Fort Collins (CO) Burlington (VT) Charlottesville (VA) Austin (TX) Tallahassee (FL) Boston (MA) Gainesville (FL) Athens-Clarke County (GA) San Jose (CA) Chatham County (NC) Columbus (OH) #CHCSOTC
Orange Highest Per Capita Income in State (2016) Source: 5-Year American Community Survey #CHCSOTC Orange… Chatham… North Carolina $26,779 Scotland $16,192 $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 Orange Wake Chatham Mecklenburg Durham Union NewHanover Dare Moore Carteret Brunswick Iredell Currituck Davie Polk Buncombe Cabarrus Forsyth Guilford NorthCarolina Henderson Haywood Camden Lincoln Perquimans Transylvania Craven Macon Pamlico Catawba Nash Pitt Pender Alamance Beaufort Gaston Gates Granville Johnston Cumberland Davidson Clay Watauga Onslow Pasquotank Wilson Rowan Franklin Lee Ashe Madison Chowan Mitchell Stanly Person Stokes Jackson Yadkin Randolph Wayne Avery Yancey Surry Rockingham Harnett Martin Columbus Alleghany Burke Lenoir Cleveland Caldwell Alexander Washington Jones Swain Caswell Wilkes Halifax Montgomery Sampson Rutherford Warren Bladen Richmond Cherokee McDowell Northampton Graham Hyde Hoke Vance Greene Edgecombe Duplin Hertford Anson Bertie Tyrrell Robeson Scotland
Per Capita Income (Top Ten Counties) Source: 5-Year American Community Survey #CHCSOTC $37,103 $35,752 $35,109 $34,091 $31,473 $31,185 $30,375 $29,746 $29,679 $29,349
2016 Median Household Income $65,299 $63,303 $54,255 $46,060 $76,173 $50,595 $57,617 Orange County Chatham County Durham County Alamance County Wake County North Carolina United States Source: U.S. Census Bureau SAIPE
Orange has #1 Adjusted Gross Income, Chatham #18 Source: National Center for Charitable Statistics County Average AGI on Itemized Returns Rank (of 100 Counties) Orange County $175,600 1 Mecklenburg County $134,897 2 Wake County $128,756 3 Guilford County $110,738 11 Durham County $106,478 15 Chatham County $101,900 18 Alamance County $92,312 36
Orange #4 in Value of Itemized Deductions, Chatham #85 County Average Itemized Contributions Reported Rank (of 100 Counties) Orange County $5,665 4 Mecklenburg County $5,230 19 Guilford County $5,080 32 Durham County $4,678 55 Wake County $4,519 62 Alamance County $4,425 68 Chatham County $4,166 85 Source: National Center for Charitable Statistics #CHCSOTC
Orange Ranks 98th in % of Income Donated, Chatham 90th County Percent of AGI Contributed Rank (of 100 Counties) Alamance County 4.8% 72 Guilford County 4.6% 79 Durham County 4.4% 82 Chatham County 4.1% 90 Mecklenburg County 3.9% 91 Wake County 3.5% 96 Orange County 3.2% 98 Source: National Center for Charitable Statistics #CHCSOTC
Yancey and Macon Counties Lead NC in Contributions County Average Itemized Contribution Rank (of 100 Counties) Percent of AGI Contributed Yancey $7,919 (9.2%) 1 Macon County $8,007 (8.5%) 2 Washington County $5,579 (7.3%) 3 Anson County $5,086 (7.2%) 4 Warren County $4,169 (7.1%) 5 Source: National Center for Charitable Statistics #CHCSOTC
Demography
Orange County Population by Race Source: US Census Bureau; Orange County Planning 80% 76% 71% 69% 16% 14% 12% 11% 1% 4% 8% 9% 3% 4% 7% 8% 2% 3% 3% 1990 2000 2010 2017 White Black Hispanic Asian Other or Multiracial Changes By Decade
Orange Minority Population by Race Source: U.S. Census Bureau NOTE: Does not include American Indian or Other, as per earlier charts 14,847 16,643 12,336 11,823 3,232 - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 1990 2000 2010 2017 Black Hispanic (any Race) Asian or Pacific Islander Multiracial
Chapel Hill Minority Population by Race Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Orange County Planning 4,840 5,460 3,638 1,678 6,786 1,282 - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 1990 2000 2010 Black Hispanic (any Race) Asian or Pacific Islander Multiracial
Carrboro Minority Population by Race NOTE: Does not include American Indian or Other, as per earlier charts Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Orange County Planning 1,916 1,933 2,706 1,592 430 - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 1990 2000 2010 Black Hispanic (any Race) Asian or Pacific Islander Multiracial
Chatham Minority Population by Race Source: U.S. Census Bureau 8,794 8,666 564 8,228 8,91668 1,373 - 1,094 - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 1990 2000 2010 2017 Black Hispanic (any Race) Asian or Pacific Islander Multiracial
Hillsborough Minority Population by Race NOTE: Does not include American Indian or Other, as per earlier charts Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Orange County Planning 1,660 1,777 404 - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 1990 2000 2010 Black Hispanic (any Race) Asian or Pacific Islander Multiracial
Municipal Minority Make Up 10% 10% 29% 14% 6% 7% 8% 12% 2%2% 2% 2% Carrboro Chapel Hill Hillsborough Black Hispanic (any Race) Asian or Pacific Islander Multiracial NOTE: Does not include American Indian or Other, as per earlier charts Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Orange County Planning
Residential Segregation - Black/White Compared to Adjacent and Peer Communities Source: Robert Wood Johnson Foundation 25 42 37 40 43 53 50 58 36 43 63 49 #CHCSOTC
Population Growth
Population Growth Jurisdiction 2010 2017 Pop Growth Growth Rate Orange County 133,688 144,946 11,258 8.4% (1.1% PY) Hillsborough 6,613 7,231 618 7.9% (1.2% PY) Carrboro 19,564 21,544 1,980 10.1% (1.3% PY) Chapel Hill 57,221 59,862 2,641 4.6% (0.6% PY) North Carolina 9,535,721 10,273,419 737,698 7.7% (1.0% PY) Note: showing April 1, 2010 Estimates Base Source U.S. Census Bureau
Orange County Population Growth Slowest Since 1960s Numeric Growth By Decade, 1930-2010 Source U.S. Census Bureau 1,901 11,363 8,535 14,737 19,348 16,796 24,376 15,574 11,258
9.0% 49.3% 24.8% 34.3% 33.5% 21.8% 26.0% 13.2% 8.4% 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010-2017 Source U.S. Census Bureau Orange County Population Percentage Growth Slowest Since 1930s Percent Population Increase By Decade, 1930-2010
Chatham County Grew By 7,993 in First 8 Years of this Decade Numeric Growth By Decade, 1930-2017 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 549 666 1,393 2,769 3,861 5,344 10,570 14,176 7,993 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010-2017 549 666 1,393 2,769 3,861 5,344 10,570 14,176 7,993 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010-2017
Source U.S. Census Bureau 2.3% 2.7% 5.5% 10.3% 13.1% 16.0% 27.3% 28.7% 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2000s Fastest Growth Decade for Chatham County Percent Population Increase By Decade, 1930-2017 2.3% 2.7% 5.5% 10.3% 13.1% 16.0% 27.3% 28.7% 12.6% 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010-2017
7,993 11,193 11,258 41,656 171,144 Chatham County Alamance County Orange County Durham County Wake County Population Gains Since 2010 Smallest in Chatham Numeric Population Growth, April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2017 Source U.S. Census Bureau
7% 8% 8% 13% 15% 19% Alamance County North Carolina Orange County Chatham County Durham County Wake County Chatham, Durham and Wake Grew Faster than State Average Population Growth Rate, April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2017 Source U.S. Census Bureau
Share 65+ Increased Statewide and Locally Population proportion 65+, April 1, 2010 vs July 1, 2017 Source U.S. Census Bureau 18% 15% 13% 10% 10% 8% 24% 17% 16% 13% 13% 11% Chatham Alamance North Carolina Orange Durham Wake 2010 2017
Migration Drove County Population Growth 2010 - 2017 Components of Orange County's estimated 11,258 person growth, 2010- 2017 Note: Not shown is the estimated loss of 2 individuals that cannot be attributed to births, deaths, or migration (residual) Source U.S. Census Bureau 11,258 8,872 -5,565 2,802 5,159 Total Change Births Deaths Domestic Migration International Migration
Migration
-20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 NumberofPeople Age NC Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013
-10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 NumberofPeople Age Orange Net Migration by Age, 2000 - 2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013
-10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 NumberofPeople Age Orange Pitt Watauga Net Migration by Age, 2000 - 2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013
-1,400 -1,200 -1,000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 NumberofPeople Age Youth Drain Halifax Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 NumberofPeople Age Employment Center Wake Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 NumberofPeople Age Family Suburbs Johnston Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013
-1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 NumberofPeople Age Chatham Moore Retiree Destinations Chatham & Moore Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013
-10,000 -8,000 -6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 NumberofPeople Age Orange Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013
-8,000 -6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 NumberofPeople Age White Black Other Hispanic Net Migration by Age and Race, 2000-2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013
-1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 NumberofPeople Age Black Other Hispanic Net Migration by Age and Race, 2000-2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013
Population Projecting
Three Population Projection Models – Annual Change 20-Year Exponential, 20-Year Linear, 10-Year Linear Geography Exponential (1990-2010) Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2017) Orange 1.8% 1,553 people 1,999 people Chatham 2.5% 1,237people 1,102people Carrboro 2.4% 372 people 273 people Chapel Hill 2.0% 926people 364people Hillsborough 1.8% 91 people 85people
How many people in 2050? Orange County 3 Population Projection Models Source: Carolina Demography, Orange County Planning 271,957 213,701 133,801 195,914 0 75,000 150,000 225,000 300,000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Exponential (1990-2010) Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2017)
How many people in 2050? Chapel Hill 3 Population Projection Models Source: Carolina Demography, Orange County Planning 125,104 94,277 2010-2017 57,233 71,804 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Exponential (1990-2010) Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2017)
How many people in 2050? Carrboro 3 Population Projection Models Source: Carolina Demography, Orange County Planning 50,999 34,478 19,582 30,506 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Exponential (1990-2010) Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2017)
How many people in 2050? Hillsborough 3 Population Projection Models Source: Carolina Demography, Orange County Planning 12,410 9,735 6,087 9,497 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Exponential (1990-2010) Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2017)
How many people in 2050? Chatham County 3 Population Projection Models Source: Carolina Demography, Orange County Planning 170,482 112,997 107,604 0 75,000 150,000 225,000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Exponential (1990-2010) Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2017)
Carrboro Remains One of the Most Densely Populated Communities in NC People per square mile by census and using ‘Linear 1990-2010’ projections Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Orange County Planning 2,970 3,437 3,754 3,108 3,586 4,158 1980 Census 1990 Census 2000 Census 2010 Census 2020 Projected 2030 Projected 2,970 3,437 3,754 3,031 3,608 4,184 1980 Census 1990 Census 2000 Census 2010 Census 2020 Projected 2030 Projected
Chapel Hill Population Density To Increase Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Orange County Planning 2,583 2,342 2,330 2,710 3,148 3,587 1980 Census 1990 Census 2000 Census 2010 Census 2020 Projected 2030 Projected People per square mile by census and using ‘Linear 1990-2010’ projections
4,246 4,116 4,094 3,948 3,472 3,108 3,037 2,710 3,587 Charlottesville (VA) Burlington (VT) Ann Arbor (MI) Boulder (CO) Bloomington (IN) Carrboro (NC) Madison (WI) Chapel Hill (NC) Chapel Hill 2030 Chapel Hill in 2030 is Less Dense than Most Peers People Per Square Mile Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Orange County Planning
Housing: Home Ownership
Homes Sold in 2017 Decline From 2016 Peak Number of single and multifamily home sales, 2007 through 2017 Source: Triangle MLS 1,751 1,815 1782 1,008 1,037 1323 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Orange Chatham
Homes Sold in 2017 Declines Number of single and multifamily home sales in Orange County, 2007-17 Source: Triangle MLS 1,751 1,275 1,143 1,143 1,128 1,277 1,630 1,433 1,650 1,815 1,782 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Price in Chatham Exceeds All Others 2017 Median Residential Closing Price Source: Triangle MLS $230,750 $285,000 $369,000 $316,245 $360,000 Durham Wake Chatham Orange CHCCS District
Home Prices Have Risen Across the Region Change in median residential sales price, 2017 vs 2013 Source: Triangle MLS 34% 28% 22% 15% Durham Wake Chatham Orange
Change in Median Home Sale Price 2017 vs 2015 2017 vs. 2015 20% 14% 10% 9% 6% Durham Wake Chatham Orange CHCCS District
New Construction Activity Concentrated in Wake Number of single and multi-family homes built and sold, 2010-2017 Source: Triangle MLS 1,346 2,575 5,514 28,629 Orange Chatham Durham Wake
New Construction as a Percent of Total Sales 11% 40% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Orange Chatham
2.4% 9.0% 4.6% 7.7% Orange Chatham Durham Wake Chatham New Housing Stock Growing the Fastest New construction (2010-2017) as percent of 2010 housing stock Source: Triangle MLS
Chatham New Construction Sales Outpace Orange Number of single and multi-family homes built and sold, 2007-2017 Source: Triangle MLS 253 194 313 532 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Orange Chatham
Steady Growth in Regional Home Prices Median residential closing price, 2007-2017 Orange Chatham Chatham Orange Source: Triangle MLS $282,500 $277,700 Chatham $369,000 $260,000 $265,000 Orange $316,245 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Chatham Orange
$123 $144 $149 $151 $166 Durham Wake Chatham Orange CHCCS District Price Per Square Foot Median Price Per Square Foot, 2017 Source: Triangle MLS
38% of Homes in CHCCS District and 47% of All Orange County Homes Sold for <$300K 2016 Orange County home sales by price 25% 21% 28% 22% 17% 26% 18% 19% 14% 21% 25% 14% 13% 18% 18% Orange County (All) (1,782 Sales) CHCCS District (1,049 Sales) Not CHCCS (686 Sales) <$200,000 $200,000-$299,999 $300,000-$399,999 $400,000-$600,000 $600,000 or more Source: Triangle MLS
2017 Orange County Homes Sales by Price 454 224 230 395 178 217 316 197 119 378 258 120 239 192 147 -200 300 800 1,300 1,800 Orange County (All) (1,782 Sales) CHCCS District (1,049 Sales) Not CHCCS (686 Sales) <$200,000 $200,000-$299,999 $300,000-$399,999 $400,000-$600,000 $600,000 or more
1986 1986 1985 1980 1991 1986 1994 1981 1986 Orange County Carrboro Chapel Hill Hillsborough Chatham County Durham County Wake County Alamance County North Carolina Median Year Structure Built Source: Triangle MLS
1986median year house built in Orange County Source: U.S. Census Bureau
2003median year Orange County homeowner moved into unit Source: U.S. Census Bureau vs. 2012 for renters
Housing: Rental Market
Most People Renting (2012-2016 ACS) Source: 5-Year American Community Survey 39% 59% 52% 37% 23% Orange Carrboro Chapel Hill Hillsborough Chatham
Median Rent 2007-2011 vs 2012-2016 American Community Survey $887 $846 $934 $870 $824 $872 $970 $945 $1,061 $831 $803 $921 Orange Carrboro Chapel Hill Hillsborough Chatham Durham 2007-2011 ACS 2012-2016 ACS
What People are Paying for Rent Orange County Gross Rent Paid (2012-2016 ACS) 5% 49% 31% 15% Less than $500 $500 to $999 $1,000 tp $1,499 $1,500 or more
Changes in % Paying $1,000 or More in Rent 34% 25% 42% 30% 31% 33% 46% 43% 56% 24% 24% 40% Orange Carrboro Chapel Hill Hillsborough Chatham Durham 2007-2011 ACS 2012-2016 ACS
46%of county renters spent $1,000 or more on rent in 2017 Source: U.S. Census Bureau
25% 25% 50% 21% 25% 54% Less than 20% 20-29% 30% or more 2007-2011 ACS 2012-2016 ACS Households Paying >30% of Gross Income on Rent Declines Gross Rent as a Percentage of Household Income Source: U.S. Census Bureau
19% -1% -7% Less than 20% 20-29% 30% or more Households Paying >30% of Gross Income on Rent Declines Percent Change 2007-2010 to 2012-2016 Source: U.S. Census Bureau
2018 Fair Market Rent North Carolina Durham- Chapel Hill HMFA Alamance County Raleigh MSA Zero Bedroom $658 $731 $587 $741 One Bedroom $708 $847 $601 $893 Two Bedroom $850 $990 $754 $1,026 Three Bedroom $1,144 $1,356 $1,029 $1,327 Four Bedroom $1,389 $1,512 $1,142 $1,656 Source: National Low Income Housing Coalition
Local Housing Wage is $16.29 for a 1 Bedroom Apt Housing Wage = Hourly Wages Needed to Afford Fair Market Rate Rent, 2018 North Carolina Durham- Chapel Hill HMFA Alamance County Raleigh MSA Zero Bedroom $12.66 $14.06 $11.29 $14.25 One Bedroom $13.61 $16.29 $11.56 $17.17 Two Bedroom $16.35 $19.04 $14.50 $19.73 Three Bedroom $22.01 $26.08 $19.79 $25.52 Four Bedroom $26.72 $29.08 $21.96 $31.85 Source: National Low Income Housing Coalition
$33,880 Needed for 1 Bedroom Fair Market Rent Annual Salary Needed to Afford Fair Market Rate Rent, 2018 North Carolina Durham- Chapel Hill HMFA Alamance County Raleigh MSA Zero Bedroom $26,339 $29,240 $23,480 $29,640 One Bedroom $28,313 $33,880 $24,040 $35,720 Two Bedroom $34,004 $39,600 $30,160 $41,040 Three Bedroom $45,776 $54,240 $41,160 $53,080 Four Bedroom $55,576 $60,480 $45,680 $66,240 Source: National Low Income Housing Coalition
90 Hours of Work Needed for Minimum Wage Worker to Afford Local 1 Bedroom Rental Weekly Hours of Minimum Wage Work Needed to Afford Fair Market Rate Rent, 2018 North Carolina Durham- Chapel Hill HMFA Alamance County Raleigh MSA Zero Bedroom 70 78 62 79 One Bedroom 75 90 64 95 Two Bedroom 90 105 80 109 Three Bedroom 121 144 109 141 Four Bedroom 147 160 121 176 Source: National Low Income Housing Coalition
Orange County Land Value
Orange County Total Value Per Acre Source: Urban3
Assessed Value Per Acre Source: Urban3
Orange County 2018 Total Assessed Value Chapel Hill, $7B (44%) Carrboro, $2.1B (13%) Hillsborough, $886 M (5.5%) Rest of County, $6B (37.3%) Total = $16 billion
2018 Orange County Commercial Assessed Value (millions) Chapel Hill, $1.3 Billion (63%) Carrboro, $229 million (11%) Hillsborough, $296 million (14%) Rest of County, $234 million (11%) Total = $2.06 billion
2018 Orange County Residential Assessed Value Chapel Hill, $5 billion (39%) Carrboro, $1.6 billion (13%)Hillsborough,… Rest of County, $5.7 billion (44%) Total = $13 billion
2018 Orange County Apartment Assessed Value (millions) Chapel Hill, $654 million (64%) Carrboro, $260 million (25%) Hillsborough, $74 million (7%) Rest of Orange County, $34 million (3%) Total = $1 billion
72.1% 77.1% 58.2% 95.5% 80.7% 18.5% 10.7% 33.4% 3.9% 12.9% 9.3% 12.2% 8.4% 0.6% 6.4% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Chapel Hill Carrboro Hillsborough Rest of Orange County Total County Residential Commercial Apartment 2018 Orange County Assessed Value #CHCSOTC
Orange County Assessed Value (millions) $5,058 $1,650 $516 $5,696 $1,300 $229 $296 $234 $654 $260 $74 $34 $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 Chapel Hill Carrboro Hillsborough Rest of Orange County Residential Commercial Apartment #CHCSOTC
Property Taxes
2017-18 City and Town Property Tax Rates Source: NC Department of Revenue Cary, 0.3500 Apex, 0.3800 Raleigh, 0.4253 Chapel Hill, 0.508 Durham, 0.5786 Carrboro, 0.5894 Salisbury, 0.7096 Huntersville Cary Apex Raleigh Asheville Charlotte Concord Wilmington Fayetteville Chapel Hill Greenville Gastonia Wilson Hickory Durham Monroe Carrboro Burlington Winston-Salem Kannapolis Greensboro Jacksonville High Point Goldsboro Rocky Mount Salisbury
Cary, 0.965 Apex, 0.995 Raleigh, 1.0403 Chapel Hill, 1.3457 Durham, 1.3465 Carrboro, 1.4271 Cary Asheville Apex Raleigh Wilmington Huntersville Hickory Burlington Concord Greenville Wilson Charlotte Fayetteville Goldsboro Jacksonville Winston-Salem Kannapolis Rocky Mount Chapel Hill Durham Greensboro Monroe Salisbury High Point Gastonia Carrboro 2016 All Jurisdictions Property Tax Rates Source: NC Department of Revenue
Burlington, $1,246 Raleigh, $2,720 Durham, $2,841 Apex, $3,388 Cary, $3,449 Carrboro, $3,873 Chapel Hill, $4,979 Goldsboro Rocky Mount Burlington Fayetteville Greenville Hickory High Point Jacksonville Kannapolis Winston-Salem Wilson Salisbury Greensboro Gastonia Concord Monroe Wilmington Asheville Raleigh Charlotte Durham Huntersville Apex Cary Carrboro Chapel Hill 2017-18 Tax Assessed on Median Home Value Source: NC Department of Revenue, Zillow 5/2018
Summary
Summary • We are growing, but slowly, and we are less dense than peer communities. • Young workers working in Orange, and driving into Orange, is increasing. • Household income is out-pacing inflation. • Orange is number 1 in per capita income but lags in per capita sales. • Retail gap remains wide with additional retail opportunity on the horizon.
Summary • CHCCS continues to out perform peers. • Minority student reading is improving in CHCCS and the achievement gap is closing there. • Health Indicators show Orange and Chatham lead neighbors and peers. • Rent is getting more expensive, but wage growth is outpacing it.
Summary • Housing prices are increasing, though rate of growth in Orange is slowest • Orange and Chatham properties are valuable and have a strong and growing tax bases. • Poverty, and children in poverty, are declining. • Crime is down. • We remain one the best places in the world to live, work, shop, play, learn, and raise a family.

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Leadership 2019 Session #3 "History and Governance" with Chamber President and CEO Aaron Nelson

  • 1.
  • 2. “To serve and advance the business interests of our community and create a sustainable community where business thrives”
  • 5. “To apply business leadership to solve community problems and identify opportunities”
  • 6. •Convene Leaders •Educate and Inform the Community •Build Organizational Capacity •Research and Report
  • 8. Orange County + Chatham County + Neighbors
  • 9.
  • 10. • https://www.townofcarrboro.org/248/Board-of-Aldermen • https://chapelhill.legistar.com/People.aspx • https://www.orangecountync.gov/953/Board-of-County- Commissioners-BOCC • https://www.arcgis.com/apps/View/index.html?appid=b0bb761c5070 426ab3b4a30fc98af110 • https://www.arcgis.com/apps/View/index.html?appid=448c16eb75554 05eb7a93448b5c2514a • https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Carolina%27s_congressional_distri cts • US Presidential map
  • 11.
  • 12. 2018 Community Data Book Data Produced in Partnership with:
  • 15. Ping Pong and Perspective
  • 17. Orange County + Chatham County + Neighbors
  • 18. Orange County Total Value Per Acre Source: Urban3
  • 20. Assessed Value Per Acre Source: Urban3
  • 21. Source 2012-2016 American Community Survey Orange County Land Distribution Chapel Hill 5% Carrboro 2% Hillsborough 1% Mebane 0.5% Rest of Orange 92%
  • 22. Orange County 56,494 Housing Units Distribution Percentage Source 2012-2016 American Community Survey Chapel Hill 36% Carrboro 17% Hillsborough 4% Mebane 2% Rest of Orange 41%
  • 24. Chapel Hill Second Highest in Nation with BA+ Percent of Residents 25+ with Bachelors degree or higher (2012-16) Source: U.S. Census Bureau Cambridge (MA), 74.9% Chapel Hill, 74.6% Carrboro, 69.1% Orange County, 57.7% Charlottesville (VA), 50.0% Chatham County, 38.8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Cambridge (MA) Chapel Hill (NC) Ann Arbor (MI) Boulder (CO) Berkeley (CA) Carrboro (NC) Evanston (IL) Amherst (MA) Sunnyvale (CA) Corvallis (OR) Orange County (NC) Santa Clara (CA) Bloomington (IN) Fort Collins (CO) Burlington (VT) Charlottesville (VA) Austin (TX) Tallahassee (FL) Boston (MA) Gainesville (FL) Athens-Clarke County (GA) San Jose (CA) Chatham County (NC) Columbus (OH) #CHCSOTC
  • 25. Orange Highest Per Capita Income in State (2016) Source: 5-Year American Community Survey #CHCSOTC Orange… Chatham… North Carolina $26,779 Scotland $16,192 $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 Orange Wake Chatham Mecklenburg Durham Union NewHanover Dare Moore Carteret Brunswick Iredell Currituck Davie Polk Buncombe Cabarrus Forsyth Guilford NorthCarolina Henderson Haywood Camden Lincoln Perquimans Transylvania Craven Macon Pamlico Catawba Nash Pitt Pender Alamance Beaufort Gaston Gates Granville Johnston Cumberland Davidson Clay Watauga Onslow Pasquotank Wilson Rowan Franklin Lee Ashe Madison Chowan Mitchell Stanly Person Stokes Jackson Yadkin Randolph Wayne Avery Yancey Surry Rockingham Harnett Martin Columbus Alleghany Burke Lenoir Cleveland Caldwell Alexander Washington Jones Swain Caswell Wilkes Halifax Montgomery Sampson Rutherford Warren Bladen Richmond Cherokee McDowell Northampton Graham Hyde Hoke Vance Greene Edgecombe Duplin Hertford Anson Bertie Tyrrell Robeson Scotland
  • 26. Per Capita Income (Top Ten Counties) Source: 5-Year American Community Survey #CHCSOTC $37,103 $35,752 $35,109 $34,091 $31,473 $31,185 $30,375 $29,746 $29,679 $29,349
  • 27. 2016 Median Household Income $65,299 $63,303 $54,255 $46,060 $76,173 $50,595 $57,617 Orange County Chatham County Durham County Alamance County Wake County North Carolina United States Source: U.S. Census Bureau SAIPE
  • 28. Orange has #1 Adjusted Gross Income, Chatham #18 Source: National Center for Charitable Statistics County Average AGI on Itemized Returns Rank (of 100 Counties) Orange County $175,600 1 Mecklenburg County $134,897 2 Wake County $128,756 3 Guilford County $110,738 11 Durham County $106,478 15 Chatham County $101,900 18 Alamance County $92,312 36
  • 29. Orange #4 in Value of Itemized Deductions, Chatham #85 County Average Itemized Contributions Reported Rank (of 100 Counties) Orange County $5,665 4 Mecklenburg County $5,230 19 Guilford County $5,080 32 Durham County $4,678 55 Wake County $4,519 62 Alamance County $4,425 68 Chatham County $4,166 85 Source: National Center for Charitable Statistics #CHCSOTC
  • 30. Orange Ranks 98th in % of Income Donated, Chatham 90th County Percent of AGI Contributed Rank (of 100 Counties) Alamance County 4.8% 72 Guilford County 4.6% 79 Durham County 4.4% 82 Chatham County 4.1% 90 Mecklenburg County 3.9% 91 Wake County 3.5% 96 Orange County 3.2% 98 Source: National Center for Charitable Statistics #CHCSOTC
  • 31. Yancey and Macon Counties Lead NC in Contributions County Average Itemized Contribution Rank (of 100 Counties) Percent of AGI Contributed Yancey $7,919 (9.2%) 1 Macon County $8,007 (8.5%) 2 Washington County $5,579 (7.3%) 3 Anson County $5,086 (7.2%) 4 Warren County $4,169 (7.1%) 5 Source: National Center for Charitable Statistics #CHCSOTC
  • 33. Orange County Population by Race Source: US Census Bureau; Orange County Planning 80% 76% 71% 69% 16% 14% 12% 11% 1% 4% 8% 9% 3% 4% 7% 8% 2% 3% 3% 1990 2000 2010 2017 White Black Hispanic Asian Other or Multiracial Changes By Decade
  • 34. Orange Minority Population by Race Source: U.S. Census Bureau NOTE: Does not include American Indian or Other, as per earlier charts 14,847 16,643 12,336 11,823 3,232 - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 1990 2000 2010 2017 Black Hispanic (any Race) Asian or Pacific Islander Multiracial
  • 35. Chapel Hill Minority Population by Race Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Orange County Planning 4,840 5,460 3,638 1,678 6,786 1,282 - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 1990 2000 2010 Black Hispanic (any Race) Asian or Pacific Islander Multiracial
  • 36. Carrboro Minority Population by Race NOTE: Does not include American Indian or Other, as per earlier charts Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Orange County Planning 1,916 1,933 2,706 1,592 430 - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 1990 2000 2010 Black Hispanic (any Race) Asian or Pacific Islander Multiracial
  • 37. Chatham Minority Population by Race Source: U.S. Census Bureau 8,794 8,666 564 8,228 8,91668 1,373 - 1,094 - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 1990 2000 2010 2017 Black Hispanic (any Race) Asian or Pacific Islander Multiracial
  • 38. Hillsborough Minority Population by Race NOTE: Does not include American Indian or Other, as per earlier charts Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Orange County Planning 1,660 1,777 404 - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 1990 2000 2010 Black Hispanic (any Race) Asian or Pacific Islander Multiracial
  • 39. Municipal Minority Make Up 10% 10% 29% 14% 6% 7% 8% 12% 2%2% 2% 2% Carrboro Chapel Hill Hillsborough Black Hispanic (any Race) Asian or Pacific Islander Multiracial NOTE: Does not include American Indian or Other, as per earlier charts Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Orange County Planning
  • 40. Residential Segregation - Black/White Compared to Adjacent and Peer Communities Source: Robert Wood Johnson Foundation 25 42 37 40 43 53 50 58 36 43 63 49 #CHCSOTC
  • 42. Population Growth Jurisdiction 2010 2017 Pop Growth Growth Rate Orange County 133,688 144,946 11,258 8.4% (1.1% PY) Hillsborough 6,613 7,231 618 7.9% (1.2% PY) Carrboro 19,564 21,544 1,980 10.1% (1.3% PY) Chapel Hill 57,221 59,862 2,641 4.6% (0.6% PY) North Carolina 9,535,721 10,273,419 737,698 7.7% (1.0% PY) Note: showing April 1, 2010 Estimates Base Source U.S. Census Bureau
  • 43. Orange County Population Growth Slowest Since 1960s Numeric Growth By Decade, 1930-2010 Source U.S. Census Bureau 1,901 11,363 8,535 14,737 19,348 16,796 24,376 15,574 11,258
  • 44. 9.0% 49.3% 24.8% 34.3% 33.5% 21.8% 26.0% 13.2% 8.4% 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010-2017 Source U.S. Census Bureau Orange County Population Percentage Growth Slowest Since 1930s Percent Population Increase By Decade, 1930-2010
  • 45. Chatham County Grew By 7,993 in First 8 Years of this Decade Numeric Growth By Decade, 1930-2017 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 549 666 1,393 2,769 3,861 5,344 10,570 14,176 7,993 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010-2017 549 666 1,393 2,769 3,861 5,344 10,570 14,176 7,993 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010-2017
  • 46. Source U.S. Census Bureau 2.3% 2.7% 5.5% 10.3% 13.1% 16.0% 27.3% 28.7% 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2000s Fastest Growth Decade for Chatham County Percent Population Increase By Decade, 1930-2017 2.3% 2.7% 5.5% 10.3% 13.1% 16.0% 27.3% 28.7% 12.6% 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010-2017
  • 47. 7,993 11,193 11,258 41,656 171,144 Chatham County Alamance County Orange County Durham County Wake County Population Gains Since 2010 Smallest in Chatham Numeric Population Growth, April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2017 Source U.S. Census Bureau
  • 48. 7% 8% 8% 13% 15% 19% Alamance County North Carolina Orange County Chatham County Durham County Wake County Chatham, Durham and Wake Grew Faster than State Average Population Growth Rate, April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2017 Source U.S. Census Bureau
  • 49. Share 65+ Increased Statewide and Locally Population proportion 65+, April 1, 2010 vs July 1, 2017 Source U.S. Census Bureau 18% 15% 13% 10% 10% 8% 24% 17% 16% 13% 13% 11% Chatham Alamance North Carolina Orange Durham Wake 2010 2017
  • 50. Migration Drove County Population Growth 2010 - 2017 Components of Orange County's estimated 11,258 person growth, 2010- 2017 Note: Not shown is the estimated loss of 2 individuals that cannot be attributed to births, deaths, or migration (residual) Source U.S. Census Bureau 11,258 8,872 -5,565 2,802 5,159 Total Change Births Deaths Domestic Migration International Migration
  • 52. -20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 NumberofPeople Age NC Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013
  • 53. -10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 NumberofPeople Age Orange Net Migration by Age, 2000 - 2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013
  • 54. -10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 NumberofPeople Age Orange Pitt Watauga Net Migration by Age, 2000 - 2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013
  • 55. -1,400 -1,200 -1,000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 NumberofPeople Age Youth Drain Halifax Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013
  • 56. 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 NumberofPeople Age Employment Center Wake Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013
  • 57. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 NumberofPeople Age Family Suburbs Johnston Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013
  • 58. -1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 NumberofPeople Age Chatham Moore Retiree Destinations Chatham & Moore Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013
  • 59. -10,000 -8,000 -6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 NumberofPeople Age Orange Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013
  • 60. -8,000 -6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 NumberofPeople Age White Black Other Hispanic Net Migration by Age and Race, 2000-2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013
  • 61. -1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 NumberofPeople Age Black Other Hispanic Net Migration by Age and Race, 2000-2010 Source: Winkler et al., 2013
  • 63. Three Population Projection Models – Annual Change 20-Year Exponential, 20-Year Linear, 10-Year Linear Geography Exponential (1990-2010) Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2017) Orange 1.8% 1,553 people 1,999 people Chatham 2.5% 1,237people 1,102people Carrboro 2.4% 372 people 273 people Chapel Hill 2.0% 926people 364people Hillsborough 1.8% 91 people 85people
  • 64. How many people in 2050? Orange County 3 Population Projection Models Source: Carolina Demography, Orange County Planning 271,957 213,701 133,801 195,914 0 75,000 150,000 225,000 300,000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Exponential (1990-2010) Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2017)
  • 65. How many people in 2050? Chapel Hill 3 Population Projection Models Source: Carolina Demography, Orange County Planning 125,104 94,277 2010-2017 57,233 71,804 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Exponential (1990-2010) Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2017)
  • 66. How many people in 2050? Carrboro 3 Population Projection Models Source: Carolina Demography, Orange County Planning 50,999 34,478 19,582 30,506 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Exponential (1990-2010) Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2017)
  • 67. How many people in 2050? Hillsborough 3 Population Projection Models Source: Carolina Demography, Orange County Planning 12,410 9,735 6,087 9,497 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Exponential (1990-2010) Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2017)
  • 68. How many people in 2050? Chatham County 3 Population Projection Models Source: Carolina Demography, Orange County Planning 170,482 112,997 107,604 0 75,000 150,000 225,000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Exponential (1990-2010) Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2017)
  • 69. Carrboro Remains One of the Most Densely Populated Communities in NC People per square mile by census and using ‘Linear 1990-2010’ projections Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Orange County Planning 2,970 3,437 3,754 3,108 3,586 4,158 1980 Census 1990 Census 2000 Census 2010 Census 2020 Projected 2030 Projected 2,970 3,437 3,754 3,031 3,608 4,184 1980 Census 1990 Census 2000 Census 2010 Census 2020 Projected 2030 Projected
  • 70. Chapel Hill Population Density To Increase Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Orange County Planning 2,583 2,342 2,330 2,710 3,148 3,587 1980 Census 1990 Census 2000 Census 2010 Census 2020 Projected 2030 Projected People per square mile by census and using ‘Linear 1990-2010’ projections
  • 71. 4,246 4,116 4,094 3,948 3,472 3,108 3,037 2,710 3,587 Charlottesville (VA) Burlington (VT) Ann Arbor (MI) Boulder (CO) Bloomington (IN) Carrboro (NC) Madison (WI) Chapel Hill (NC) Chapel Hill 2030 Chapel Hill in 2030 is Less Dense than Most Peers People Per Square Mile Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Orange County Planning
  • 73. Homes Sold in 2017 Decline From 2016 Peak Number of single and multifamily home sales, 2007 through 2017 Source: Triangle MLS 1,751 1,815 1782 1,008 1,037 1323 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Orange Chatham
  • 74. Homes Sold in 2017 Declines Number of single and multifamily home sales in Orange County, 2007-17 Source: Triangle MLS 1,751 1,275 1,143 1,143 1,128 1,277 1,630 1,433 1,650 1,815 1,782 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
  • 75. Price in Chatham Exceeds All Others 2017 Median Residential Closing Price Source: Triangle MLS $230,750 $285,000 $369,000 $316,245 $360,000 Durham Wake Chatham Orange CHCCS District
  • 76. Home Prices Have Risen Across the Region Change in median residential sales price, 2017 vs 2013 Source: Triangle MLS 34% 28% 22% 15% Durham Wake Chatham Orange
  • 77. Change in Median Home Sale Price 2017 vs 2015 2017 vs. 2015 20% 14% 10% 9% 6% Durham Wake Chatham Orange CHCCS District
  • 78. New Construction Activity Concentrated in Wake Number of single and multi-family homes built and sold, 2010-2017 Source: Triangle MLS 1,346 2,575 5,514 28,629 Orange Chatham Durham Wake
  • 79. New Construction as a Percent of Total Sales 11% 40% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Orange Chatham
  • 80. 2.4% 9.0% 4.6% 7.7% Orange Chatham Durham Wake Chatham New Housing Stock Growing the Fastest New construction (2010-2017) as percent of 2010 housing stock Source: Triangle MLS
  • 81. Chatham New Construction Sales Outpace Orange Number of single and multi-family homes built and sold, 2007-2017 Source: Triangle MLS 253 194 313 532 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Orange Chatham
  • 82. Steady Growth in Regional Home Prices Median residential closing price, 2007-2017 Orange Chatham Chatham Orange Source: Triangle MLS $282,500 $277,700 Chatham $369,000 $260,000 $265,000 Orange $316,245 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Chatham Orange
  • 83. $123 $144 $149 $151 $166 Durham Wake Chatham Orange CHCCS District Price Per Square Foot Median Price Per Square Foot, 2017 Source: Triangle MLS
  • 84. 38% of Homes in CHCCS District and 47% of All Orange County Homes Sold for <$300K 2016 Orange County home sales by price 25% 21% 28% 22% 17% 26% 18% 19% 14% 21% 25% 14% 13% 18% 18% Orange County (All) (1,782 Sales) CHCCS District (1,049 Sales) Not CHCCS (686 Sales) <$200,000 $200,000-$299,999 $300,000-$399,999 $400,000-$600,000 $600,000 or more Source: Triangle MLS
  • 85. 2017 Orange County Homes Sales by Price 454 224 230 395 178 217 316 197 119 378 258 120 239 192 147 -200 300 800 1,300 1,800 Orange County (All) (1,782 Sales) CHCCS District (1,049 Sales) Not CHCCS (686 Sales) <$200,000 $200,000-$299,999 $300,000-$399,999 $400,000-$600,000 $600,000 or more
  • 86. 1986 1986 1985 1980 1991 1986 1994 1981 1986 Orange County Carrboro Chapel Hill Hillsborough Chatham County Durham County Wake County Alamance County North Carolina Median Year Structure Built Source: Triangle MLS
  • 87. 1986median year house built in Orange County Source: U.S. Census Bureau
  • 88. 2003median year Orange County homeowner moved into unit Source: U.S. Census Bureau vs. 2012 for renters
  • 90. Most People Renting (2012-2016 ACS) Source: 5-Year American Community Survey 39% 59% 52% 37% 23% Orange Carrboro Chapel Hill Hillsborough Chatham
  • 91. Median Rent 2007-2011 vs 2012-2016 American Community Survey $887 $846 $934 $870 $824 $872 $970 $945 $1,061 $831 $803 $921 Orange Carrboro Chapel Hill Hillsborough Chatham Durham 2007-2011 ACS 2012-2016 ACS
  • 92. What People are Paying for Rent Orange County Gross Rent Paid (2012-2016 ACS) 5% 49% 31% 15% Less than $500 $500 to $999 $1,000 tp $1,499 $1,500 or more
  • 93. Changes in % Paying $1,000 or More in Rent 34% 25% 42% 30% 31% 33% 46% 43% 56% 24% 24% 40% Orange Carrboro Chapel Hill Hillsborough Chatham Durham 2007-2011 ACS 2012-2016 ACS
  • 94. 46%of county renters spent $1,000 or more on rent in 2017 Source: U.S. Census Bureau
  • 95. 25% 25% 50% 21% 25% 54% Less than 20% 20-29% 30% or more 2007-2011 ACS 2012-2016 ACS Households Paying >30% of Gross Income on Rent Declines Gross Rent as a Percentage of Household Income Source: U.S. Census Bureau
  • 96. 19% -1% -7% Less than 20% 20-29% 30% or more Households Paying >30% of Gross Income on Rent Declines Percent Change 2007-2010 to 2012-2016 Source: U.S. Census Bureau
  • 97. 2018 Fair Market Rent North Carolina Durham- Chapel Hill HMFA Alamance County Raleigh MSA Zero Bedroom $658 $731 $587 $741 One Bedroom $708 $847 $601 $893 Two Bedroom $850 $990 $754 $1,026 Three Bedroom $1,144 $1,356 $1,029 $1,327 Four Bedroom $1,389 $1,512 $1,142 $1,656 Source: National Low Income Housing Coalition
  • 98. Local Housing Wage is $16.29 for a 1 Bedroom Apt Housing Wage = Hourly Wages Needed to Afford Fair Market Rate Rent, 2018 North Carolina Durham- Chapel Hill HMFA Alamance County Raleigh MSA Zero Bedroom $12.66 $14.06 $11.29 $14.25 One Bedroom $13.61 $16.29 $11.56 $17.17 Two Bedroom $16.35 $19.04 $14.50 $19.73 Three Bedroom $22.01 $26.08 $19.79 $25.52 Four Bedroom $26.72 $29.08 $21.96 $31.85 Source: National Low Income Housing Coalition
  • 99. $33,880 Needed for 1 Bedroom Fair Market Rent Annual Salary Needed to Afford Fair Market Rate Rent, 2018 North Carolina Durham- Chapel Hill HMFA Alamance County Raleigh MSA Zero Bedroom $26,339 $29,240 $23,480 $29,640 One Bedroom $28,313 $33,880 $24,040 $35,720 Two Bedroom $34,004 $39,600 $30,160 $41,040 Three Bedroom $45,776 $54,240 $41,160 $53,080 Four Bedroom $55,576 $60,480 $45,680 $66,240 Source: National Low Income Housing Coalition
  • 100. 90 Hours of Work Needed for Minimum Wage Worker to Afford Local 1 Bedroom Rental Weekly Hours of Minimum Wage Work Needed to Afford Fair Market Rate Rent, 2018 North Carolina Durham- Chapel Hill HMFA Alamance County Raleigh MSA Zero Bedroom 70 78 62 79 One Bedroom 75 90 64 95 Two Bedroom 90 105 80 109 Three Bedroom 121 144 109 141 Four Bedroom 147 160 121 176 Source: National Low Income Housing Coalition
  • 102. Orange County Total Value Per Acre Source: Urban3
  • 103. Assessed Value Per Acre Source: Urban3
  • 104. Orange County 2018 Total Assessed Value Chapel Hill, $7B (44%) Carrboro, $2.1B (13%) Hillsborough, $886 M (5.5%) Rest of County, $6B (37.3%) Total = $16 billion
  • 105. 2018 Orange County Commercial Assessed Value (millions) Chapel Hill, $1.3 Billion (63%) Carrboro, $229 million (11%) Hillsborough, $296 million (14%) Rest of County, $234 million (11%) Total = $2.06 billion
  • 106. 2018 Orange County Residential Assessed Value Chapel Hill, $5 billion (39%) Carrboro, $1.6 billion (13%)Hillsborough,… Rest of County, $5.7 billion (44%) Total = $13 billion
  • 107. 2018 Orange County Apartment Assessed Value (millions) Chapel Hill, $654 million (64%) Carrboro, $260 million (25%) Hillsborough, $74 million (7%) Rest of Orange County, $34 million (3%) Total = $1 billion
  • 108. 72.1% 77.1% 58.2% 95.5% 80.7% 18.5% 10.7% 33.4% 3.9% 12.9% 9.3% 12.2% 8.4% 0.6% 6.4% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Chapel Hill Carrboro Hillsborough Rest of Orange County Total County Residential Commercial Apartment 2018 Orange County Assessed Value #CHCSOTC
  • 109. Orange County Assessed Value (millions) $5,058 $1,650 $516 $5,696 $1,300 $229 $296 $234 $654 $260 $74 $34 $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 Chapel Hill Carrboro Hillsborough Rest of Orange County Residential Commercial Apartment #CHCSOTC
  • 111. 2017-18 City and Town Property Tax Rates Source: NC Department of Revenue Cary, 0.3500 Apex, 0.3800 Raleigh, 0.4253 Chapel Hill, 0.508 Durham, 0.5786 Carrboro, 0.5894 Salisbury, 0.7096 Huntersville Cary Apex Raleigh Asheville Charlotte Concord Wilmington Fayetteville Chapel Hill Greenville Gastonia Wilson Hickory Durham Monroe Carrboro Burlington Winston-Salem Kannapolis Greensboro Jacksonville High Point Goldsboro Rocky Mount Salisbury
  • 112. Cary, 0.965 Apex, 0.995 Raleigh, 1.0403 Chapel Hill, 1.3457 Durham, 1.3465 Carrboro, 1.4271 Cary Asheville Apex Raleigh Wilmington Huntersville Hickory Burlington Concord Greenville Wilson Charlotte Fayetteville Goldsboro Jacksonville Winston-Salem Kannapolis Rocky Mount Chapel Hill Durham Greensboro Monroe Salisbury High Point Gastonia Carrboro 2016 All Jurisdictions Property Tax Rates Source: NC Department of Revenue
  • 113. Burlington, $1,246 Raleigh, $2,720 Durham, $2,841 Apex, $3,388 Cary, $3,449 Carrboro, $3,873 Chapel Hill, $4,979 Goldsboro Rocky Mount Burlington Fayetteville Greenville Hickory High Point Jacksonville Kannapolis Winston-Salem Wilson Salisbury Greensboro Gastonia Concord Monroe Wilmington Asheville Raleigh Charlotte Durham Huntersville Apex Cary Carrboro Chapel Hill 2017-18 Tax Assessed on Median Home Value Source: NC Department of Revenue, Zillow 5/2018
  • 115. Summary • We are growing, but slowly, and we are less dense than peer communities. • Young workers working in Orange, and driving into Orange, is increasing. • Household income is out-pacing inflation. • Orange is number 1 in per capita income but lags in per capita sales. • Retail gap remains wide with additional retail opportunity on the horizon.
  • 116. Summary • CHCCS continues to out perform peers. • Minority student reading is improving in CHCCS and the achievement gap is closing there. • Health Indicators show Orange and Chatham lead neighbors and peers. • Rent is getting more expensive, but wage growth is outpacing it.
  • 117. Summary • Housing prices are increasing, though rate of growth in Orange is slowest • Orange and Chatham properties are valuable and have a strong and growing tax bases. • Poverty, and children in poverty, are declining. • Crime is down. • We remain one the best places in the world to live, work, shop, play, learn, and raise a family.