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2015 State of the Community Report

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2015 STATE OF THE
COMMUNITY REPORT
Our Presenting Sponsor
Stretch Break and Video Interlude
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The 2015 State of the Community Report presented by Triangle Community Foundation was held Thursday, August 27 at the UNC Friday Center for Continuing Education.

Powered by the Chamber's charitable arm, the Partnership For a Sustainable Community, and presented by Chamber CEO Aaron Martin Nelson, the report presents a full overview on the health of the Chapel Hill-Carrboro community.

State of the Community Report was sponsored by the Triangle Community Foundation and Durham Technical Community College. Thanks to our special guests Town of Chapel Hill, Town of Carrboro, and Orange County Economic Development.

The 2015 State of the Community Report presented by Triangle Community Foundation was held Thursday, August 27 at the UNC Friday Center for Continuing Education.

Powered by the Chamber's charitable arm, the Partnership For a Sustainable Community, and presented by Chamber CEO Aaron Martin Nelson, the report presents a full overview on the health of the Chapel Hill-Carrboro community.

State of the Community Report was sponsored by the Triangle Community Foundation and Durham Technical Community College. Thanks to our special guests Town of Chapel Hill, Town of Carrboro, and Orange County Economic Development.

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2015 State of the Community Report

  1. 1. 2015 STATE OF THE COMMUNITY REPORT
  2. 2. Our Presenting Sponsor
  3. 3. Stretch Break and Video Interlude Sponsor
  4. 4. Town of Chapel Hill Town of Carrboro Orange County Economic Development Chapel Hill/Orange County Visitors Bureau A Thank You to Our Special Guests
  5. 5. Background on this Report • Our Eighth State of the Community Report • Born out of graduate student research at UNC • Social, Economic, and Health Indicators • Objective: deliver relevant information to community and business leaders • Chamber + The Partnership
  6. 6. Special Thanks To • Town of Chapel Hill • Orange County Board of Health • Chapel Hill-Orange County Visitors Bureau • Orange Water & Sewer Authority • Orange County Department of Environment, Agriculture, Parks and Recreation • Greater Chapel Hill Association of REALTORS • Orange County Tax Administration • Home Builders of Durham, Orange & Chatham Counties • Durham Tech
  7. 7. Assessed Value Per Acre
  8. 8. Who We Are and Where We Live
  9. 9. Hillsborough, 1% Carrboro, 1.4% Chapel Hill, 5% Rest of Orange 92.6% Urban3 Orange County Land Distribution
  10. 10. Location of Orange County Housing Units 9,258 (16%) 2,593 (5%) 22,254 (40%) 21,492 (39%) Carrboro Hillsborough Chapel Hill Rest of County U.S. Census Bureau
  11. 11. Population Growth Jurisdiction 2010 2014 Pop Growth Growth Rate Orange County 133,702 140,420 +6,718 5.0% (~1.2% PY) Hillsborough 6,087 6,388 +301 4.9% (~1.2% PY) Carrboro 19,582 20,984 +1,402 7.2% (~1.8% PY) Chapel Hill 57,233 59,376 +2,143 3.7% (~0.9% PY) North Carolina 9,535,691 9,943,964 +408,273 4.3% (~1.1% PY) U.S. Census Bureau
  12. 12. U.S. Census Bureau Population Growth 116,016 140,402 17,668 20,984 48,038 59,376 5,513 6,388 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Orange County Carrboro Chapel Hill Hillsborough
  13. 13. High School Degree or Higher (2010-2014) U.S. Census Bureau 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0% 90.7% 94.7% 84.9% 91.0% 84.9% 86.0% United States North Carolina Orange County Hillsborough Chapel Hill Carrboro
  14. 14. Bachelors Degree or Higher (2009-2013) U.S. Census Bureau 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 65.1% 73.9% 36.5% 55.8% 27.3% 28.8% United States North Carolina Orange County Hillsborough Chapel Hill Carrboro
  15. 15. Minority Races by Municipality U.S. Census Bureau 10.1% 9.7% 29.5% 12.2% 22.0% 8.2% 11.9% 1.7% 7.3% 2.5% 13.8% 6.4% 6.6% 8.2% 8.7% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% Carrboro Chapel Hill Hillsborough Orange County North Carolina Black Asian Hispanic or Latino
  16. 16. Orange County Population by Race U.S. Census Bureau 80.0% 70.0% 15.8% 12.2% 1.4% 8.3% 2.5% 7.6%0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 1990 2000 2010 2013 White African American Latino/Hispanic Asian
  17. 17. Orange County Population Projections 77,055 93,851 115,531 133,801 160,306 192,243 230,770 277,307 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 1980 Census 1990 Census 2000 Census 2010 Census 2020 Projected 2030 Projected 2040 Projected 2050 Projected Current 2014 Estimate: 140,420 US Census Bureau and Orange County Planning
  18. 18. Municipal Population Projections 19,582 51,749 54,397 113,930 6,087 12,538 1,793 42,308 51,942 56,782 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 1980 Census 1990 Census 2000 Census 2010 Census 2020 Projected 2030 Projected 2040 Projected 2050 Projected Carrboro Chapel Hill (within Orange Co.) Hillsborough Mebane (within Orange County) Unincorporated Areas US Census and Orange County Planning
  19. 19. Population Density – People Per Square Mile (2010) 336.2 935.7 356.5 93.1 1078.8 213.4 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Orange Durham Co. Alamance Chatham Wake Johnston US Census Bureau
  20. 20. Municipal Population Density (pp/mi2) 3,108 2,785 1,148 141 335 4,897 3,936 1,617 175 479 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Carrboro Chapel Hill (in Orange) Hillsborough Unincorporated Orange County 2010 Census 2020 Projected 2030 Projected US Census Bureau and Orange County Planning
  21. 21. College Town Population Density (pp/mi2) 2010 4246 4116 4094 3948 3472 3108 3037 2710 3936 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 Charlottesville (VA) Burlington (VT) Ann Arbor (MI) Boulder (CO) Bloomington (IN) Carrboro (NC) Madison (WI) Chapel Hill (NC) Chapel Hill 2030 US Census Bureau
  22. 22. A few take aways
  23. 23. Number of Homes Sold in Orange County 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1,886 1,126 1,628 1,432 Triangle Multiple Listing Services
  24. 24. Orange County Average Residential Closing Price $200,000 $220,000 $240,000 $260,000 $280,000 $300,000 $320,000 $340,000 $360,000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 $262,920 $342,740 $327,758 $329,927 Triangle Multiple Listing Services
  25. 25. 2014 Average Residential Closing Price per Square Foot $101 $111 $126 $149 $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 Durham Wake Chatham Orange Triangle Multiple Listing Services
  26. 26. Change in Average Residential Closing Price 2013 to 2014 Triangle Multiple Listing Services 3.4% 4.1% 4.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% Durham Wake Chatham Orange
  27. 27. Percent Change in Residential Closing Price Per Square Foot 2013 to 2014 3.9% 4.5% 1.6% -0.6% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% Durham Wake Chatham Orange Triangle Multiple Listing Services
  28. 28. 2014 Average Home Price by Location $208,174 $272,398 $330,054 $334,552 $0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000 Durham Wake Orange Chatham Triangle Multiple Listing Services
  29. 29. 2014 Average Home Price by Location Triangle Multiple Listing Services $208,174 $272,398 $330,054 $334,552 $362,405 $0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000 Durham Wake Orange Chatham CHCCS Dist
  30. 30. Non-Owner Occupied (2009-2013) U.S. Census Bureau 49.9% 62.5% 43.2% 39.5% 33.6% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Chapel Hill Carrboro Hillsborough Orange County North Carolina
  31. 31. Orange County Housing Gross Rent U.S Census Bureau 1% 1% 6% 30% 40% 15% 8% 1% 1% 4% 24% 36% 23% 11% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 40.00% 45.00% Less than $200 $200 to $299 $300 to $499 $500 to $749 $750 to $999 $1,000 to $1,499 $1,500 or more 2009-2013 (19,299) 2007-2009 (19,587)
  32. 32. Orange Co. Gross Rent as a Percent of Household Income (2009-13) U.S Census Bureau 9% 10% 23% 13% 8% 29% 8% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% Less than 15 percent 15 to 19.9 percent 20 to 29.9 percent 30 to 39.9 percent 40.0 to 49.9 percent 50.0 percent or more Not computed
  33. 33. Transportation and Commuting
  34. 34. 40,411 Live outside Orange County and drive in for work 37,851 Live in Orange County and drive out of the county for work 19,698 Live in Orange County and work in Orange County U.S. Census Bureau
  35. 35. Chapel Hill Commuting U.S. Census Bureau
  36. 36. Carrboro Commuting U.S. Census Bureau
  37. 37. Orange County Residents’ Commuting U.S. Census Bureau 34.2%45.10% 65.8% 54.90% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 20122011201020092008200720062005200420032002 Live and Work Here Live Here and Work Somewhere Else
  38. 38. Orange County Employee Commuting 32.8% 41.70% 67.2% 58.30% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 20122011201020092008200720062005200420032002 Employed and Living in the Selection Area Employed in the Selection Area but Living Outside U.S. Census Bureau
  39. 39. Commute Change 2010-2012 39,540 33,850 20,622 40,411 37,851 19,698 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 Driving Into Orange for Work Driving Out of Orange for Work Live and Work in Orange 2010 2012 U.S. Census Bureau
  40. 40. Commuting to Primary Jobs U.S. Census Bureau 6,887 6,815 3,196 11,691 14,067 6,495 19,273 19,529 10,007 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 Drive out for work Drive in for work Live and work here > $40,000 $15,000-$40,000 <%15,000
  41. 41. Orange Commuting to Primary Jobs 18.2% 16.9% 16.2% 30.9% 34.8% 33.0% 50.9% 48.3% 50.8% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0% Drive out for work Drive in for work Live and work here > $40,000 $15,000- $40,000 <%15,000 US Census Bureau
  42. 42. Young Worker (< 29 yo) Commuting 2010-12 9,045 6,693 3,933 8,807 7,372 3,336 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 Driving Into Orange for Work Driving Out of Orange for Work Live and Work in Orange 2010 2012 U.S. Census Bureau
  43. 43. Percent Change in Young Worker (< 29 yo) Commuting 2010-12 -2.6% 10.1% -15.2% -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% Driving Into Orange for Work Driving Out of Orange for Work Live and Work in Orange U.S. Census Bureau
  44. 44. Chapel Hill Transit Ridership (millions) Chapel Hill Transit 5.27 7.23 6.94 6.73 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50 7.00 7.50 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15
  45. 45. GoTriangle Ridership (Millions) GoTriangle (formerly Triangle Transit) 0.71 1.14 1.84 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2
  46. 46. That’s right, takeaways
  47. 47. Working, Wages and Poverty
  48. 48. Percent of Persons Living Below Poverty Level (2009-2013) U.S Census Bureau 17.9% 15.5% 23.1% 17.0% 22.2% 0 5 10 15 20 25 North Carolina Orange County Chapel Hill Carrboro Hillsborough
  49. 49. Percent of Children in Poverty 27.1% 21.5% 22.4% 21.6% 17.4% 13.4% 14.5% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Alamance Chatham Durham Johnston Orange Wake U.S Census Bureau
  50. 50. Orange County Children in Poverty 2897 3879 4822 4627 4258 3820 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 U.S Census Bureau
  51. 51. Percent of K-12 Students Enrolled in Free and Reduced Lunch NC Dept of Public Instruction 46.0% 59.7% 44.0% 53.5%50.6% 66.3% 32.6% 43.3% 21.7% 28.2% 33.7% 37.6% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% Alamance Chatham Durham Orange: OCS Orange: CHCCS Wake
  52. 52. Percent of CHCCS Elementary Students Receiving Free and Reduced Lunch N.C Dept of Public Instruction 43% 41% 26% 31% 29% 51% 29% 33% 29% 26% 32% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% Northside Elementary Carrboro Elementary Elizabeth Seawell Elem Ephesus Road Elementary Estes Hills Elementary Frank P Graham Elementary Glenwood Elementary C and L McDougle Elem Mary Scroggs Elementary Morris Grove Elementary Mel and Zora Rashkis Elem 2012-13 2013-14
  53. 53. N.C Dept of Public Instruction Percent of Orange County Schools Elem Students Receiving Free and Reduced Lunch 37% 83% 65% 42% 17% 59% 49% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Cameron Park Elementary Central Elementary Efland Cheeks Elementary Grady Brown Elementary Hillsborough Elementary New Hope Elementary Pathways Elementary 2012-13 2013-14
  54. 54. Orange County Families Receiving Food and Nutrition Services (Formerly Food Stamps) NC Division of Social Services 2,903 3,037 3,526 4,600 5,466 6,078 6,320 6,533 6,352 6,199 6,087 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15
  55. 55. Orange County Families Receiving Food and Nutrition Services (Formerly Food Stamps) NC Division of Social Services 6,525 6,309 6,199 6,087 5,800 5,900 6,000 6,100 6,200 6,300 6,400 6,500 6,600
  56. 56. Extremely Low Income (ELI) Less Than 30% of Median Income 1,839 1,766 1,022 5,891 7,062 6,026 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 2000 2005-07 2011-13 ELI Households ELI Units < $20,300 < $18,700 < $21,400 Urban Institute
  57. 57. Residential Units per 100 ELI Households 31 39 31 31 25 34 25 29 17 23 18 20 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Orange Durham Chatham Wake 2011-13 2005-07 2000 Urban Institute
  58. 58. Per Capita Personal Income (2013) #1 Chatham $53,336 #2 Orange: $52,339 #6 Wake $46,097 #12 Durham $41,376 NC: $38,611 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 Chatham Mecklenburg Cumberland Currituck Carteret Polk Pamlico Forsyth Guilford Cabarrus Davie Henderson Jones Chowan Johnston Davidson Lenoir Gaston Catawba Wilkes Caswell Alamance Alexander Martin Sampson Alleghany Stanly Hoke Washington Transylvania Surry Bertie Duplin Granville Bladen Vance Person Pasquotank Harnett Jackson Avery Madison Tyrrell Clay Hertford Caldwell Mitchell Rutherford Cherokee Robeson U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
  59. 59. Per Capita Income Change 2009-2013 U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis 9.5% 15.5% 7.3% 9.7% 14.5% 10.7% 12.8% 6.1% 10.4% 11.7% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% Alamance Chatham Durham Johnston Mecklenburg North Carolina Orange Person Randolph Wake
  60. 60. Per Capita Personal Income 1969-2013 $39,646 $45,018 $52,339 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 North Carolina Durham Chapel Hill MSA Orange County U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
  61. 61. Per Capita Personal Income 2000-2013 $39,646 $45,018 $52,339 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 North Carolina Durham Chapel Hill MSA Orange County U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
  62. 62. Median vs. Per Capita Income (2009-2013) $33,840 $36,391 $41,376 $52,339 $53,336 $46,097 $43,043 $49,711 $51,853 $55,569 $57,091 $66,006 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 Alamance Johnston Durham Orange Chatham Wake Median Household Income Per Capita Income U.S. Census Bureau; U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
  63. 63. Unemployment Over Time NC Dept of Commerce 2.9% 5.8% 5.5% 4.3% 3.2% 6.7% 5% 6.6% 4.7% 10.9% 6.1% 1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 9.0 11.0 13.0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Jun-15 Chapel Hill Orange County North Carolina
  64. 64. Chapel Hill Residents Employed NC Department of Commerce 25,828 26,424 25,961 27,072 27,619 27,691 28,117 27,800 28,330 24,500 25,000 25,500 26,000 26,500 27,000 27,500 28,000 28,500 29,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Jun-15
  65. 65. Orange County Residents Employment NC Department of Commerce 65,473 66,931 65,815 66,327 67,725 68,527 69,582 69,942 71,277 62,000 63,000 64,000 65,000 66,000 67,000 68,000 69,000 70,000 71,000 72,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Jun-15
  66. 66. Unemployed Individuals NC Department of Commerce 1,638 1,436 1,659 4,728 3,254 3,751 - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Jun-15 Chapel Hill Orange County
  67. 67. Our Non Profit Employment Sector
  68. 68. Number of 501 (c)3 Nonprofits Filing 990s 83 485 107 303 1,370 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 Chatham Durham Johnston Orange Wake NC Center for Nonprofits
  69. 69. Average Annual Wages for Non Profit Employees $50,666 $28,869 $56,585 $28,082 $58,850 $42,470 $0.00 $10,000.00 $20,000.00 $30,000.00 $40,000.00 $50,000.00 $60,000.00 $70,000.00 Triangle Area * Chatham Durham Johnston Orange Wake Orange Avg Wage $53,445 NC Center for Nonprofits
  70. 70. Orange County Non Profits Orange County Registered Non Profits 735 Orange County 501(c)3 Orgs Filing 990s 333 Annual Revenue of Orange County 501(c)3s $5.2 billion Assets of Orange county 501(c)3s $933 million Urban Institute
  71. 71. Incubation and Start Up Opened Facility Size (sq/ft) Enterprises served in 2013 and 2014 Mid Way Business Center 2001 5,000 11 Piedmont Food & Ag Processing Center 2011 10,400 37 The Cube (UNC- Campus Y) 2012 1,500 15 LaUNCh Chapel Hill 2013 3,400 34 1789 2013 3,500 45 TOTALS 23,800 142 enterprises Personal Interviews
  72. 72. Nominal 2014 County GDP (Billions) $5.6 $28.7 $1.6 $57.9 $6.0 $6.5 $0.0 $10.0 $20.0 $30.0 $40.0 $50.0 $60.0 $70.0 Alamance Durham Chatham Wake Orange Johnston National Association of Counties
  73. 73. Chatham County National Association of Counties
  74. 74. Durham County Economic Output National Association of Counties
  75. 75. Orange County National Association of Counties
  76. 76. Stretch Break and Video Interlude Sponsor
  77. 77. Taxes and Revenue
  78. 78. Orange County Taxable Sales (Millions) NC Department of Revenue $907 $1,422 $1,477 $0.00 $200.00 $400.00 $600.00 $800.00 $1,000.00 $1,200.00 $1,400.00 $1,600.00 4% Growth Over Previous Year
  79. 79. Orange Co. Gross Sales Tax Collection (Millions) NC Department of Revenue $40.82 $67.84 $70.47 $0.00 $10.00 $20.00 $30.00 $40.00 $50.00 $60.00 $70.00 $80.00
  80. 80. Percent Share of Sales Tax Revenue Distribution 62% 9% 25% 0% 3% 1% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% Orange County Carrboro Chapel Hill Durham Hillsborough Mebane NC Dept of Revenue
  81. 81. Retail Demand How it works • The average Orange County household spends $34,229 on retail purchases including food. • Multiply the annual spend by 53,141 household gives total retail demand of ~$1.82 billion • The Retail Gap is delta between demand and annual retail sales.
  82. 82. 2014 Average Local Household Retail Demand (with Food and Drink) $23,560 $31,342 $28,247 $25,745 $34,229 $36,238 $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 Alamance County (NC) Chatham County (NC) Durham County (NC) Johnston County (NC) Orange County (NC) Wake County (NC) NC Department of Commerce
  83. 83. 2014 Retail Demand vs Retail Sales (Billions) NC Department of Commerce $1.8 $0.9 $3.3 $1.5 $1.7 $0.9 $0.8 $3.4 $1.8 $1.9 $0.0 $0.5 $1.0 $1.5 $2.0 $2.5 $3.0 $3.5 $4.0 Orange Chatham Durham Alamance Johnston 2014 Total Retail Demand 2014 Retail Sales
  84. 84. Total Retail Gap (Millions) (with Food and Drink) NC Department of Commerce $727.9 $235.8 $375.8 ($153.8) $59.9 $866.5 $133.6 ($104.7) ($338.9) ($195.6) ($400,000,000) ($200,000,000) $0 $200,000,000 $400,000,000 $600,000,000 $800,000,000 $1,000,000,000 Orange County Chatham Durham Alamance Johnston 2012 Retail Gap 2014 Retail Gap
  85. 85. Retail Gap Change from 2012 to 2014 (Millions) $138.6 ($102.2) ($480.6) ($185.1) ($255.5) ($600,000,000) ($500,000,000) ($400,000,000) ($300,000,000) ($200,000,000) ($100,000,000) $0 $100,000,000 $200,000,000 Orange Chatham Durham Alamance Johnston NC Department of Commerce
  86. 86. Orange Retail Gap (Millions) NC Department of Commerce $233 $205 $82 $82 $77 $41 $30 $30 $20 ($7) ($50) $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 General Merchandise Stores Motor Vehicles Parts and Dealers Food and Beverage Stores Health and Personal Care Stores Clothing/Accessories Stores Electronics and Appliance Stores 2014 Retail Gap: Furniture/Home… Gasoline Stations Sports/Hobby/Book/Music Stores Food Services & Drinking Places
  87. 87. The News We Have Been Waiting For…. … But Not Really :-(
  88. 88. $Tax revenue/population $Tax Rev + New Tax Rev/population
  89. 89. Sales Tax Revenue Per Capita NC Dept of Revenue $108.74 $147.95 $135.04 $127.95 $210.19 $152.12 $129.31 $80.00 $100.00 $120.00 $140.00 $160.00 $180.00 $200.00 $220.00 Orange Alamance Chatham Durham Johnston Wake 2012 2013
  90. 90. Sales Tax Revenue Per Capita John Locke Foundation $108.74 $147.95 $135.04 $126.88 $127.95 $210.19 $129.31 $100.00 $120.00 $140.00 $160.00 $180.00 $200.00 $220.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 Orange Alamance Chatham Durham Wake
  91. 91. Sales Tax Per Capita Rankings John Locke Foundation 81 42 55 53 19 61 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2010 2011 2012 2013 Orange Alamance Chatham Durham Wake
  92. 92. Per Capital Income Rank vs Per Capita Retail Sales Rank John Locke Foundation 12 2 19 42 051015202530354045 Durham Orange Per Capita Income Rank Percapital Retail Sales Rank
  93. 93. A little property data …
  94. 94. Total Assessed Property Value (Billions) $1.92 $6.37 $0.68 $6.64 Carrboro Chapel Hill Hillsborough Rest of Orange County TOTAL $15.6 Billion Orange County Tax Administration
  95. 95. 2014 Commercial vs Residential Tax Base 12.77% 18.47% 15.82% 40.46% 2.89% 4.27% 7.56% 1.21% 84.34% 77.26% 76.62% 58.33% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Orange County Chapel Hill Carrboro Hillsborough Commerical Apartments Residential Orange County Tax Administration
  96. 96. 2014 Orange County Commercial Assessed Value ($Millions) $303.4 $1,176.0 $273.7 $238.4 Carrboro Chapel Hill Hillsborough Rest of Orange County Orange County Tax Administration
  97. 97. Orange County Assessed Value TOTAL TOTAL $15.6 Billion $0.0 $2,000.0 $4,000.0 $6,000.0 $8,000.0 $10,000.0 $12,000.0 $14,000.0 Commercial Residential Apartment Rest of Orange County Hillsborough Chapel Hill Carrboro 1.99 Billion $451.7 Million $13.16 Billion Orange County Tax Administration
  98. 98. 2013 City and Town Tax Rate 0.33 0.3826 0.494 0.5675 0.675 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 Huntersville Cary Raleigh Apex Asheville Charlotte Wilmington Fayetteville Concord Winston-Salem Chapel Hill Hickory Wilson Greenville Gastonia Jacksonville Monroe Kannapolis Durham Burlington Rocky Mount Greensboro Salisbury Goldsboro High Point NC Dept of Revenue
  99. 99. Total of All Jurisdictions Property Tax Rate 0.864 0.9166 1.3119 1.4554 1.5404 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 Cary Raleigh Apex Wilmington Hickory Huntersville Asheville Burlington Jacksonville Winston-Salem Concord Fayetteville Greenville Monroe Charlotte Wilson Rocky Mount Salisbury Kannapolis Durham Goldsboro Gastonia Greensboro High Point Chapel Hill NC Dept of Revenue
  100. 100. Property Taxes on Median House Prices $1,100.00 $1,604.05 $1,819.25 $2,164.64 $2,224.80 $4,898.47 $0.00 $500.00 $1,000.00 $1,500.00 $2,000.00 $2,500.00 $3,000.00 $3,500.00 $4,000.00 $4,500.00 $5,000.00 Burlington Kannapolis Salisbury Rocky Mount Hickory Winston-Salem Fayetteville Monroe Goldsboro Wilson Greenville Gastonia Jacksonville Raleigh Wilmington Greensboro High Point Charlotte Asheville Concord Durham Apex Cary Huntersville Chapel Hill NC Dept of Revenue and RealEstate.com
  101. 101. Environment
  102. 102. Water Sales and Accounts 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 22,000 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 CustomerAccounts WaterSales(MillionGallonsPerDayAverage) Actual Water Sales Customer Accounts Reclaimed Water to UNC begins 2009
  103. 103. Monthly Water & Sewer Bills 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 RateIncrease AverageMonthlyBillBasedon4,000gallons permonthresidentialcustomer Average Bill Projected Average Bill Rate Increase Projected Rate Increase 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 3% 3% 3%
  104. 104. Orange County Water Users (MGD) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 1997 2002 2007 2009 2010 2011 2012 Mebane MGD Orange-Alamance MGD Hillsborough MGD OWASA MGD 2014 Orange County State of the Environment
  105. 105. Totally & Partially Protected Lands (Acres) 1,229 4,088 7,784 10,804 12,722 14,473 3,151 5,230 8,613 9,609 10,185 10,174 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 Pre-1981 1981-90 1991-2000 2001-04 2005-08 2009-13 Totally Protected Lands Partially Protected Lands 8,250 acre (50%) increase since 2000 #1 Duke University (5,092 acres) 2014 Orange County State of the Environment
  106. 106. Annual Ozone Exceedances Orange County State of the Environment
  107. 107. Orange County Diagnosis of Asthma (All Ages) in Hospital Discharges per 100,000 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 48 72.7 62.8 45.6 NC State Center on Health Statistics
  108. 108. Air Quality: Orange County Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector 2009 Orange County State of the Environment Report Transportation, 49% Residential, 19% Commercial/ Institutional, 29% Solid Waste, 1% Industrial , 2%
  109. 109. Air Pollution and Volatile Organic Compounds Orange County State of the Environment
  110. 110. Air Pollutants by Source Over Time Orange County State of the Environment
  111. 111. Health and Safety
  112. 112. Health Indicators Health Indicator Orange County Chatham County Who is #1 Length of Life #1 #6 Orange Quality of Life #3 #34 Wake Health Behaviors #1 #17 Orange Clinical Care #1 #8 Orange Social and Economic Factors #1 #8 Orange Physical Environment #5 #24 Hyde County Health Rankings
  113. 113. All Cancer Frequency (per 100,000) NC State Center for Health Statistics 488.9 499.1 463.0 480.9 458.0 476.1 420 440 460 480 500 520 540 North Carolina Alamance Chatham Durham Orange Wake 2008-2012 Rate 2006-2010 Rate
  114. 114. Orange County Pregnancy Rate Girls Age 15-17 (per 1000) NC State Center for Health Statistics 26.1 10.6 8.7 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 White Minority Total
  115. 115. Orange County Teen Pregnancies (Girls 15-17) NC State Center for Health Statistics 22 26 27 36 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2013 2012 2011 2010
  116. 116. Orange County Infant Mortality Rate (per 1000 live births) NC State Center for Health Statistics 3.4 7.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Orange County State
  117. 117. County Property Crime Rates (Per 100,000) State Bureau of Investigation 3,319 3,319 1,967 6,985 4,391 4,887 2,206 4,240 2,428 1,000.0 2,000.0 3,000.0 4,000.0 5,000.0 6,000.0 7,000.0 8,000.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Alamance Chatham Durham Orange Wake
  118. 118. County Violent Crime Rates (Per 100,000) State Bureau of Investigation 395.1 232 188.4 599.8 371.5 146.9 241.9 0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0 500.0 600.0 700.0 800.0 900.0 1,000.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Alamance Chatham Durham Orange Wake
  119. 119. More information at: relyMD.com/carolinachamber Contact: Lisa Weistart (919) 357-9983 lweistart@carolinachamber.org
  120. 120. Education
  121. 121. Total Per Pupil Funding All Sources $8,029 $9,439 $9,989 $9,602 $10,872 $7,880 $8,477 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 Alamance-Burlington Schools Chatham County Schools Durham County Schools Orange County Schools Chapel-Hill/Carrboro City Schools Wake County Schools NC Average NC Department of Public Instruction
  122. 122. High School Graduation Rates N.C. Dept of Public Instruction 90.8% 94.3% 66.5% 86.3% 69.1% 84.9% 60.0% 65.0% 70.0% 75.0% 80.0% 85.0% 90.0% 95.0% 100.0% 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 CHCCS 4-year CHCCS 5-year OCS 4-year OCS 5-year NC 4-year NC 5-year
  123. 123. School District Dropout Rates N.C. Dept of Public Instruction 0.50% 2.28% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% OCS Rate CHCCS Rate NC Rate
  124. 124. Percent Grade Level Proficient (3, 4 or 5) Reading, Grade 3 60.2 62.4 74.6 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Reading Grade 3 Reading Grade 3 Reading Grade 3 NorthCarolina Orange County SchoolsCHCCS NC Dept of Public Instruction
  125. 125. Percent Grade Level Proficient (3, 4 or 5) 3rd Grade End of Grade Test (EOG) 60.6 63.2 74.5 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 EOG Grade 3 EOG Grade 3 EOG Grade 3 NorthCarolina Orange County SchoolsCHCCS NC Dept of Public Instruction
  126. 126. Percent College/Career Ready (4or5) 8th Grade End of Grade Test 46.3 49.8 74.2 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 EOG Grade 8 EOG Grade 8 EOG Grade 8 North Carolina Orange County SchoolsCHCCS NC Dept of Public Instruction
  127. 127. Percent of Students College/Career Ready (4 or 5) in Math, Grade 7 39 35.9 69.5 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Math Grade 7 Math Grade 7 Math Grade 7 North Carolina Orange County SchoolsCHCCS NC Dept of Public Instruction
  128. 128. Percent of Students College/Career Ready (4 or 5) 8th Grade Science EOC 61.9 64.1 84.6 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Science Grade 8 Science Grade 8 Science Grade 8 NorthCarolina OrangeCounty SchoolsCHCCS
  129. 129. CHCCS Percent of Students Passing BOTH End of Grade Reading and Math Tests 74.6% 15.2% 26.0% 70.5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% White Black Hispanic Asian NC Dept of Public Instruction
  130. 130. CHCCS Percent of Students Passing Both End of Grade Reading & Math Test 16.1% 74.7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Economically Disadvantaged (E.D.) Not Economically Disadvantaged (N.E.D.) NC Dept of Public Instruction
  131. 131. Percent of Economically Disadvantaged Students Passing Both End of Grade Reading and Math Tests 17.4% 16.1% 17.3% 11.1% 15.2% 15.0% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% North Carolina CHCCS OCS Durham Alamance-Burlington Schools Chatham NC Dept of Public Instruction
  132. 132. Higher Education
  133. 133. UNC Chapel Hill’s 29,278 students 18,503 8,262 2,513 undergraduate graduate professional UNC Office of Institutional Research and Assessment
  134. 134. UNC’s 11,900 Employees 3,608 8,292 Faculty (Total) Non-Faculty Staff (Total) UNC Office of Institutional Research and Assessment
  135. 135. Fall 2014 UNC Chapel Hill Student Housing UNC Office of Institutional Research and Assessment 8,520 (29%) 321 (1%) 18,238 (63%) 841 (3%) 1,215 (4%) Resident Student Housing Married Student Housing Off-Campus Fraternity & Sorority Other University Affiliated Housing (Granville Towers)
  136. 136. UNC Chapel Hill Annual Research Funding (2000-2014) UNC Office of Institutional Research and Assessment $792,729,006 $0 $100,000,000 $200,000,000 $300,000,000 $400,000,000 $500,000,000 $600,000,000 $700,000,000 $800,000,000 $900,000,000 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
  137. 137. State Appropriations (FY 2014 UNC Chapel Hill) UNC Office of Institutional Research and Assessment $543,291,852 $482,727,867 $0 $100,000,000 $200,000,000 $300,000,000 $400,000,000 $500,000,000 $600,000,000 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
  138. 138. Total UNC Revenues $2,937,990,505 $482,727,867 $0 $500,000,000 $1,000,000,000 $1,500,000,000 $2,000,000,000 $2,500,000,000 $3,000,000,000 $3,500,000,000 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Total Revenues State Appropriations $1 Billion 1997 $2 Billion 2006
  139. 139. UNC Student Enrollment UNC Office of Institutional Research and Assessment 21,465 23,852 24,872 29,135 15,000 17,000 19,000 21,000 23,000 25,000 27,000 29,000 31,000
  140. 140. Percent Growth of UNC Student Enrollment UNC Office of Institutional Research and Assessment 0.96 2.50 2.21 1.27 1.97 1.48 1.62 1.51 1.53 1.22 1.64 -0.86 0.48 -0.52 0.03 -1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
  141. 141. UNC Campus Gross Sq Ft (000s) UNC Office of Institutional Research and Assessment 7,847 9,639 12,312 18,394 19,536 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
  142. 142. N University Master Plan – Land Holdings
  143. 143. UNC Chapel Hill’s 95 Start-Up Companies UNC Office of Technology Development 5 11 3 3 3 1 6 1 7 1 5 7 9 14 10 9 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15
  144. 144. UNC Chapel Hill Number of US Patents Issues UNC Office of Technology Development 22 27 33 31 25 34 48 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15
  145. 145. UNC Chapel Hill Licensed Rev (millions) UNC Office of Institutional Research and Assessment $3.0 $2.8 $1.5 $2.4 $3.8 $7.9 $3.0 $0.0 $1.0 $2.0 $3.0 $4.0 $5.0 $6.0 $7.0 $8.0 $9.0 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15
  146. 146. Durham Tech
  147. 147. Durham Tech
  148. 148. Durham Tech
  149. 149. Durham Tech
  150. 150. Visitors
  151. 151. Chapel Hill/Orange Co. Hotel Occupancy 58.9% 59.6% 64.1% 65.1% 65.4% 70.0% 71.1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 June YTD Chapel Hill Orange County Visitors Bureau
  152. 152. Chapel Hill/ Orange Co. Average Daily Rate $107.35 $102.12 $101.61 $104.38 $106.49 $113.95 $94.00 $96.00 $98.00 $100.00 $102.00 $104.00 $106.00 $108.00 $110.00 $112.00 $114.00 $116.00 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD June Chapel Hill Orange County Visitors Bureau
  153. 153. Chapel Hill/Orange Co. Room Revenue $63.3 $60.9 $65.2 $68.0 $69.6 $79.5 $84.1 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 June YTD RevPAR RevPAR, or revenue per available room, is a performance metric calculated by multiplying a hotel's average daily room rate (ADR) by its occupancy rate. Chapel Hill Orange County Visitors Bureau
  154. 154. 2014 Taxes Generated by Tourists (Millions) 3.88 9.46 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Local State 2014 • In 2014, visitors to Orange County generated $13.34 million in State and Local Taxes (including sales, lodging, food & beverage, gas and other) Chapel Hill Orange County Visitors Bureau
  155. 155. Tourism Spending in Orange County (millions) 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Chapel Hill Orange County Visitors Bureau
  156. 156. Competitive Advantage Money Magazine
  157. 157. Accolades and Awards • #9 most educated places in America by NerdWallet • Best Places to Live by Money Magazine • Top cities for music that aren’t New York or LA by mic.com • Best college cities or towns in America by WalletHub • Best Small City for Education by Movoto.com • #4 of best commute cities in NC by Obrella • #13 of the 19 Totally Magical Libraries To Visit Before You Die by BuzzFeed • #7 Best College Town for People who Aren't in College by Conde Nast • #3 Most Caring Small City in America by Movoto.com • #1 Community we would want to work or live in by ‘CHCCC’
  158. 158. How You Can Support Performance Golf Classic Sept. 28 at Governors Club Donate at carolinachamber.org/partnership
  159. 159. Be a SuperFan! Golf Sponsor
  160. 160. Meet local businesses and maybe your next client at… PRIMETIME presented by Michelin OnSite 4-7 p.m., Sept. 10, here at the Friday Center!
  161. 161. www.carolinachamber.org/events For sponsorship opportunities contact Aubrey Fox Williams at afoxwilliams@carolinachamber.org Orange County Development Briefing presented by the Town of Chapel Hill October 20, 2015
  162. 162. slideshare.net/carolinachamber Check the Chamber’s SlideShare account for the entire presentation.
  163. 163. Connect With Us Facebook.com/ChapelHillCarrboroChamber Twitter: @CarolinaChamber Instagram: @carolinachamber flickr.com/photos/carolinachamber LinkedIn: Chapel Hill-Carrboro Chamber group carolinachamber.org

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