Growth Factor Method & Balancing of production & Attraction

1. Traffic & Transport Modelling
Assignment
Topic: Trip Generation
Submitted By
Sibesh Kumar Singh
Ranjeet Shah
Randhir Kumar Singh
Ramratan Shah
Ptakash Gupta

2. PROBLEM 1- Trip Generation-Growth Factor Method
Consider a zone with the following Characteristics:
Due to a decrease in import duties and a real income increase of 30%, it
is expected that in five years time 50% of household without car would
acquire one. Estimate how many trips would the zone generate in that
case; check whether your method is truly the best available.
Source: Modeling Transport, Third Edition. Juan de Dios Ortuzar and Luis G.
Willumsen. John Willey & Sons, USA, 2004 (page-160).
Householdtype no Income(Rs/month) Inhabitants Trips/day
180 6
80 8
40 11
4
4
6
0car
1car
2ormore car
4000
18000
50000

3. SOLUTION-PROBLEM 1
We have following working formulas:
Ti=Fi*ti ;Fi=
f(𝑃 𝑑,𝐼 𝑑,𝐶 𝑑)
f(𝑃 𝑐,𝐼 𝑐,𝐶 𝐶)
; Ti=future trips in zone ii, t=Current trips in zone I, Fi=growth Factor
P=population; I= income; C=Car Ownership; d=design year; c=current year
Given, ti , Fi ;Ti=?
By question:
ti=HH no*Trips/day( for each car ownership)=180*6+80*8+40*11=2160 trips
𝑃 𝑑
𝑃 𝑐
= 1;
𝐼 𝑑
𝐼 𝑐
= 1.3;
𝐶 𝑑
𝐶 𝑐
=
80 +
180
2
+ 40
80 + 40
= 1.75
Ti=2160*1*1.3*1.75=4914 trips
CHECK:
Actual Trips=
180
2
*6 + (80+
180
2
)*8 + 40*11= 2340 <4914( Not Best Estimation)

4. PROBLEM 3-Trip Generation- Balancing Trip Productions & Attractions
Source: Traffic and Highway Engineering by Nicholas J. Garber and Lester A. Hoel (page: 602-603)
Unbalanced HBW Trips
Zone Productions Attractions
1 100 240
2 200 400
3 300 160
Total 600 800
Productions Attractions
180
300
120
600
100
200
300
600
Balanced HBW Trips
Explanation
= (
00
800
)
Unbalanced NHW Trips
Zone
NHB
Productions
NHB
Attractions
1 100 240
2 200 400
3 300 160
Total 600 800
Balanced NHW Trips
NHB Productions NHB Attractions
180 180 Explanation
300 300 Production of zone 1,2,3
should be equal to
corrected attraction of
zones 1,2,3 resp.
120 120
600 600