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  1. 1. CAN YOU SPOT 2 SIMILAR POINTS IN THESE GEOSPATIAL KEYNOTES? <ul><li>20 Oct. 2009 22 Oct. 2009 </li></ul><ul><li>GeoInt keynote FOSS4G keynote </li></ul><ul><li>DARPA Director OSGeo Founder </li></ul><ul><li>Dr. Regina Dugan Paul Ramsey </li></ul>
  2. 2. <ul><li>“ You cannot predict the future, your can hear its footsteps approaching, think and be prepared” </li></ul><ul><li>“ Darwin is commonly misunderstood to have said the strongest of the species will survive , when in fact he said the most adaptable to change will survive and thrive ” </li></ul>
  3. 3. Paris in the the spring Once in a a lifetime Bird in the the hand
  4. 4. <ul><li>How many read this? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ Paris in the spring” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>“ Once in a lifetime” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>“ Bird in the hand” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>there’s usually a 50/50 split in the audience </li></ul></ul></ul>
  5. 5. <ul><li>“ Perception is not a passive recording of reality, but an active creator of it according to our expectations” </li></ul><ul><li>“ On St Crispin’s Day in the 1400s, the larger French force [was] defeated [by] the British, who were fewer in numbers but had longbows … which the French considered unchivalrous ” </li></ul>
  6. 6. <ul><li>Analogy of two birds and asymmetric warfare </li></ul><ul><li>You have five seconds to count the red dots in the following screen: </li></ul>
  7. 8. <ul><li>How many blue dots did you count? </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>no-one apparently answers this right </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>there usually is an uncomfortable silence after everyone counts the red dots in a few seconds and waits, not thinking to count the other coloured dots </li></ul></ul></ul>
  8. 9. <ul><li>“ Our responsibility... is to look around the corner for those blue dots” </li></ul><ul><li>“ We must challenge the world view... we must seek the best jumpers... and we must align our business practices, so that we can develop and protect the fragile and fleeting truly innovative ideas” </li></ul>
  9. 10. <ul><li>“ Existing proprietary vendors are not selling software, they’re selling products” </li></ul><ul><li>Moore’s Crossing the Chasm : a change in the personality of customers, between the small early market and the big mainstream market </li></ul><ul><li>Transition is from selling software to whole products (adding value-added infrastructure) </li></ul>
  10. 11. <ul><li>“ The old model is to sell the software, and then throw in all the rest for free” (viz. Oracle) </li></ul><ul><li>“ Open source changes the point of monetisation” </li></ul><ul><li>It gives away the software for free, but not the value-added as-needed services (viz. Redhat) </li></ul>
  11. 12. <ul><li>Microsoft, Oracle, SAP and Redhat are respectively B$223, 103, 58 and 5 cos. </li></ul><ul><li>“ It is now generally accepted that the future will involve a blend of both proprietary and open source software” (The Economist) </li></ul><ul><li>Open source capitalisation is <3% total market, so how does it survive? </li></ul>
  12. 13. <ul><li>Same reference as GeoInt about Darwin: not the strongest of the species will survive, but the most adaptable to change </li></ul><ul><li>“ Competition is not at the level of the organisms... but much farther down in the realm of the gene” </li></ul>
  13. 14. <ul><li>Richard Dawkins: “... the selfish reproductive behaviours of the gene can lead to apparently healthy behaviours of the organism... behaviours that maximise the chances of genetic survival are passed on to future generations, even when those behaviours endanger the survival of a particular organism” </li></ul><ul><li>Similar bird analogy to that in GeoInt </li></ul>
  14. 15. <ul><li>“ The people who attmept to understand the success of open source through the analysis of the marketplace .... misunderstand how software lives and dies, confusing the host with what it carries” </li></ul><ul><li>“ the unit of competition is not the corporation, it is the program, the software...” </li></ul>
  15. 16. <ul><li>“ Programs needs a programmer attention to survive... a program that is no longer maintained and updated is a program that is dying” </li></ul><ul><li>“ Understanding that the competition between proprietary and open source competition is at the program level, clears away a lot of distraction” </li></ul>
  16. 17. <ul><li>“ A proprietary program can best understood as a sort of parasite, in symbiosis with a host organism, the corporation that owns it...” </li></ul><ul><li>“ Open source program can draw sustenance in the form of a long term, stable commitment from corporations, who sell services or products around the software...” </li></ul>
  17. 18. <ul><li>“ Rules of participation are cultural, not contractual, and broad (community) participation is the whole point” </li></ul><ul><li>“ We are all open source cos. now, which means that none of us are” (Martin Asay) </li></ul><ul><li>“ Open source (is an) evolution not revolution” </li></ul>
  18. 19. <ul><li>“ Change in marketplace... where purchasers have the option to get software for free” </li></ul><ul><li>“ Transformation from closed corporate to open collaborative model... where the two trends reinforce each other” </li></ul><ul><li>“ On the ground floor of an growing market, riding the wave that is just picking up” </li></ul>
  19. 20. Take-away <ul><li>Adaptability to change </li></ul><ul><li>Perception, and changing perception </li></ul><ul><li>Sometimes make judgments far too soon, and too quickly, to come to correct conclusions </li></ul>