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"Welcome back to the new Middle Ages"

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Extract from Medium post of same title
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"Welcome back to the new Middle Ages"

  1. 1. Comparative economics England & Wales since the Middle Ages Andrew Zolnai blog.zolnai.ca @azolnai
  2. 2. Premise • Medium post Welcome back to the new Middle Ages • “After the post-WWII boom, backslide as socialist experiments failed” • See previous post on old website Passing Generation • And foreground ‘haves’ vs background ‘have nots’ at right, see also § 3: Evolution of pre-Medium post Varanasi1967,GregZolnai
  3. 3. Statistics • Inspired by statistics at UN Data and Guardian Datablog • Also mapped East Anglia economic geo-history since Middle Ages • Two papers studying economic wealth in Great Britain since the Middle Ages: • Unequal English Wealth since 1670, Peter H. Lindert, Journal of Political Economy, 1986, vol. 94, no. 6, link, Table 5 next page • British Economic Growth, 1270-1870: an output-based approach, Stephen Broadberret al., 2011, accessed 04/08/2018, link, Table 9 next page • Copies of data and derivatives posted here as CC BY-SA 3.0
  4. 4. Data Table 5 Shares of Wealth and income held by top 5% of adults and top 10% of households, both sexes, England & Wales, 167-1973 1670 1700 1740 1810 1875 1973 Preferred estimate 84.7 81.9 86.9 85.3 84 49.5 1875 level 72.3 78.6 77.6 81.5 84 49.2 Table 9 Sectoral shares in current price GDP, 1270-1870 (%) 1300- 1340 1340- 1450 1450- 1650 1650- 1750 1750- 1800 1800- 1860 Real wage 5.5 75 -50.4 15.2 -3.6 59.7 GDP/capita 2.8 30.6 4.2 48.3 19.6 46.7 Labour share -5.1 15.3 -8.5 -1.7 -0.2 12.1 Relative prices 4.4 -6.4 8 -0.7 9.2 1.6 0 20 40 60 80 100 1670 1700 1740 1810 1875 1973 Table 5 Preferred estimate 1875 level -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 1300-1340 1340-1450 1450-1650 1650-1750 1750-1800 1800-1860 Table 9 Real wage GDP/capita Labour share Relative prices
  5. 5. Aggregate -60.0 -40.0 -20.0 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 Comparative economics England & Wales Real wage GDP/capita Labour share Relative prices Net worth top 5% NWT5 1875 level -100.0 -50.0 0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0 350.0 1300 1340 1450 1650 1750 1800 1875 1975 2025 Aggregate 1300- 1340 1340- 1450 1450- 1650 1650- 1750 1750- 1800 1800- 1860 1875 1973 Table 9 Real wage 5.5 75.0 -50.4 15.2 -3.6 59.7 GDP/capita 2.8 30.6 4.2 48.3 19.6 46.7 Labour share -5.1 15.3 -8.5 -1.7 -0.2 12.1 Relative prices 4.4 -6.4 8.0 -0.7 9.2 1.6 Table 5 Net worth top 5% 84.5 84.9 85.3 84.0 49.5 NWT5 1875 level 76.2 78.8 81.5 84.0 49.2 1300 1340 1450 1650 1750 1800 1875 1975 Aggregate 7.6 114.5 -46.7 221.8 188.7 286.9 168.0 98.7 • Data taken as-is from sources • Aggregated as indicator of combined economic wealth • Dotted trend-line below: 2nd order polynomial extrapolated 1 period (Microsoft Excel) Note: red dips Black & Bubonic Plagues, green dip agriculture depression

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