Causality Strength Signatures for Measuring GCMs Performance: The South America Climate Network
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Granger causal strength networks as metric for measuring GCMs performance. Everything presented resulted in the following scientific article: Vázquez‐Patiño, A., Campozano, L., Mendoza, D., Samaniego, E., 2020. A causal flow approach for the evaluation of global climate models. Int J Climatol 1–21. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6470
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Causality Strength Signatures for Measuring GCMs Performance: The South America Climate Network
- 1. Causality Strength Signatures for Measuring GCMs Performance The South America Climate Network A. Vázquez-Patiño, L. Campozano, E. Samaniego angel.vazquezp@ucuenca.edu.ec Universidad de Cuenca June 13, 2018
- 2. South America Climate Network A. Vázquez-Patiño, L. Campozano, E. Samaniego 2/40 Complex Systems
- 3. South America Climate Network A. Vázquez-Patiño, L. Campozano, E. Samaniego 3/40
- 4. South America Climate Network A. Vázquez-Patiño, L. Campozano, E. Samaniego 4/40
- 5. South America Climate Network A. Vázquez-Patiño, L. Campozano, E. Samaniego 5/40
- 6. South America Climate Network A. Vázquez-Patiño, L. Campozano, E. Samaniego 6/40 Surface Air Temperature Tominski,C.,Donges,J.F.,Nocke,T.,2011. InformationVisualizationinClimateResearch.IEEE,pp.298–305.
- 7. South America Climate Network A. Vázquez-Patiño, L. Campozano, E. Samaniego 7/40 Climate Networks After Jürgen Kurths, http://slideplayer.com/slide/8935671/ Data Information Knowledge ML Network S
- 8. South America Climate Network A. Vázquez-Patiño, L. Campozano, E. Samaniego 8/40 Donges,J.F.,Petrova,I.,Loew,A.,Marwan,N.,Kurths,J.,2015.Howcomplexclimatenetworkscomplement eigentechniquesforthestatisticalanalysisofclimatologicaldata.ClimateDynamics45,2407–2424.
- 9. South America Climate Network A. Vázquez-Patiño, L. Campozano, E. Samaniego 9/40 Ebert-Uphoff,I.,Deng,Y.,2012.ANewTypeofClimateNetworkBasedonProbabilistic GraphicalModels:ResultsofBorealWinterVersusSummer.GeophysicalResearchLetters39,7.
- 10. South America Climate Network A. Vázquez-Patiño, L. Campozano, E. Samaniego 10/40 Hlinka, J., Jajcay, N., Hartman, D., Paluš, M., 2017. Smooth information flow in temperature climate network reflects mass transport. Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science 27, 035811. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4978028
- 11. South America Climate Network A. Vázquez-Patiño, L. Campozano, E. Samaniego 11/40 Hlinka, J., Jajcay, N., Hartman, D., Paluš, M., 2017. Smooth information flow in temperature climate network reflects mass transport. Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science 27, 035811. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4978028
- 12. South America Climate Network A. Vázquez-Patiño, L. Campozano, E. Samaniego 12/40 Deng,Y.,Ebert-Uphoff,I.,2014.Weakeningofatmosphericinformationflowinawarming climateintheCommunityClimateSystemModel.GeophysicalResearchLetters41,193-200.
- 13. South America Climate Network A. Vázquez-Patiño, L. Campozano, E. Samaniego 13/40 Deng,Y.,Ebert-Uphoff,I.,2014.Weakeningofatmosphericinformationflowinawarming climateintheCommunityClimateSystemModel.GeophysicalResearchLetters41,193-200.
- 14. South America Climate Network A. Vázquez-Patiño, L. Campozano, E. Samaniego 14/40 Deng,Y.,Ebert-Uphoff,I.,2014.Weakeningofatmosphericinformationflowinawarming climateintheCommunityClimateSystemModel.GeophysicalResearchLetters41,193-200.
- 15. South America Climate Network A. Vázquez-Patiño, L. Campozano, E. Samaniego 15/40 Deng, Y., Ebert-Uphoff, I., 2014. Weakening of atmospheric information flow in a warming climate in the Community Climate System Model. Geophysical Research Letters 41, 193-200.
- 16. South America Climate Network A. Vázquez-Patiño, L. Campozano, E. Samaniego 16/40 Causal networks
- 17. South America Climate Network A. Vázquez-Patiño, L. Campozano, E. Samaniego 17/40 Data ● Variable: Geopotential height at 500 hPa. ● NCEP/NCAR reanalysis daily, Resolution lon 2.5° × lat 2.5° ● MPI-ESM-LR daily historical, Resolution lon 1.875° × lat 1.8653° ● MPI-ESM-LR daily RCP 8.5, Resolution lon 1.875° × lat 1.8653° ● MPI-ESM-LR daily RCP 2.6, Resolution lon 1.875° × lat 1.8653°
- 18. South America Climate Network A. Vázquez-Patiño, L. Campozano, E. Samaniego 18/40 Period of time ● Present: 1950/01 - 2005/12 (56 years) ● Future: 2045/01 - 2100/12 (56 years)
- 19. South America Climate Network A. Vázquez-Patiño, L. Campozano, E. Samaniego 19/40 Granger causality
- 20. South America Climate Network A. Vázquez-Patiño, L. Campozano, E. Samaniego 20/40 Granger causality
- 21. South America Climate Network A. Vázquez-Patiño, L. Campozano, E. Samaniego 21/40 Granger causality
- 22. South America Climate Network A. Vázquez-Patiño, L. Campozano, E. Samaniego 22/40 Network metrics ● Causal strength ● Distance ● Divergence
- 23. South America Climate Network A. Vázquez-Patiño, L. Campozano, E. Samaniego 23/40 Reanalysis, network plots
- 24. South America Climate Network A. Vázquez-Patiño, L. Campozano, E. Samaniego 24/40 Comparison, network plots
- 25. South America Climate Network A. Vázquez-Patiño, L. Campozano, E. Samaniego 25/40 Caulality strength, reanalysis
- 26. South America Climate Network A. Vázquez-Patiño, L. Campozano, E. Samaniego 26/40 Comparison present
- 27. South America Climate Network A. Vázquez-Patiño, L. Campozano, E. Samaniego 27/40 Comparison present vs RCP 2.5
- 28. South America Climate Network A. Vázquez-Patiño, L. Campozano, E. Samaniego 28/40 Comparison present vs RCP 8.5
- 29. South America Climate Network A. Vázquez-Patiño, L. Campozano, E. Samaniego 29/40 Distance reanalysis
- 30. South America Climate Network A. Vázquez-Patiño, L. Campozano, E. Samaniego 30/40 Comparison distance, present
- 31. South America Climate Network A. Vázquez-Patiño, L. Campozano, E. Samaniego 31/40 Comparison present vs RCP 2.5
- 32. South America Climate Network A. Vázquez-Patiño, L. Campozano, E. Samaniego 32/40 Comparison present vs RCP 8.5
- 33. South America Climate Network A. Vázquez-Patiño, L. Campozano, E. Samaniego 33/40
- 34. South America Climate Network A. Vázquez-Patiño, L. Campozano, E. Samaniego 34/40
- 35. South America Climate Network A. Vázquez-Patiño, L. Campozano, E. Samaniego 35/40 Divergence
- 36. South America Climate Network A. Vázquez-Patiño, L. Campozano, E. Samaniego 36/40 Divergence
- 37. South America Climate Network A. Vázquez-Patiño, L. Campozano, E. Samaniego 37/40 Divergence
- 38. South America Climate Network A. Vázquez-Patiño, L. Campozano, E. Samaniego 38/40 Divergence
- 39. South America Climate Network A. Vázquez-Patiño, L. Campozano, E. Samaniego 39/40 Conclusions ● Overestimation of causality ● Subestimation of distance ● Amazon region
- 40. South America Climate Network A. Vázquez-Patiño, L. Campozano, E. Samaniego 40/40 Questions
Editor's Notes
- Complex systems are systems which collective behavior is not easily determined by its components (Benuwa et al., 2016; Kim and Wilhelm, 2008).
- In order to explore the underlying network structures and dynamic of such systems, researchers started to use a common set of mathematical tools (e.g. graph theory, statistics) to understand its properties and behavior which was called later on as network science. The success of network science is based on the technological advances that allows manage huge amounts of information and the common organizing principles behind networks that admit a common framework to analyze them (Barabási, 2016).
- As the neural brain network, transportation systems, or social networks, the complex climate system has also been studied to characterize its structure and understand its dynamics by means of network science with the so called climate networks (Tsonis, 2004; Tsonis et al., 2006; Tsonis and Roebber, 2004).
- Framework general Procesos climáticos subyacentes Procesos físicos De los datos desvelar la transferencia de energía de masa
- A climate network is an abstraction of the climate system as a set of nodes that can represent observations (or model results) of a given climate variable around the globe and allows to identify dependence among those nodes which in turn are tied to the characteristics of main components of the system (Donges et al., 2015).