Calificadora de riesgo S&P ratificó la calificación del país en BB con perspectiva estable, en un contexto internacional negativo.

1. Research Update:
Plurinational State of Bolivia
Long-Term Ratings Affirmed At 'BB';
Outlook Remains Stable
Primary Credit Analyst:
Delfina Cavanagh, Buenos Aires (54) 114-891-2153; delfina.cavanagh@standardandpoors.com
Secondary Contact:
Joydeep Mukherji, New York (1) 212-438-7351; joydeep.mukherji@standardandpoors.com
Table Of Contents
Overview
Rating Action
Rationale
Outlook
Key Statistics
Ratings Score Snapshot
Related Criteria And Research
Ratings List
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2. Research Update:
Plurinational State of Bolivia Long-Term Ratings
Affirmed At 'BB'; Outlook Remains Stable
Overview
• After several years of fiscal and current account surpluses for Bolivia,
strong imports in the context of falling hydrocarbon revenues resulted in
a shrinking current account surplus while high public investments
resulted in a fiscal deficit of 3.4% of GDP for the nonfinancial public
sector in 2014.
• A sharp rise in public-sector investment has sustained GDP growth in
recent years, but the combination of potentially low energy prices for
many years and lack of new discoveries of natural gas could lower
long-term growth prospects.
• We have affirmed our long-term foreign and local currency ratings on
Bolivia at 'BB'.
• The outlook remains stable, based on our expectation of political
stability and continuity in economic policies over the next three years.
Rating Action
On May 20, 2015, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services affirmed its long-term
foreign and local currency ratings on the Plurinational State of Bolivia at
'BB'. The outlook remains stable. We also affirmed the short-term foreign and
local currency ratings at 'B' and our transfer and convertibility (T&C)
assessment at 'BB'.
Rationale
The ratings on Bolivia reflect Standard & Poor's view that the economy will
continue to grow between 3%-4% in the next three years while remaining
vulnerable to commodity price cycles. Bolivia's external position is likely to
weaken moderately in the next three years as a result of the current account
deficits, after several years of surpluses. However, we expect the country's
external position to remain relatively robust thanks to ample external assets
and low external debt.
Strong imports derived from high levels of public investment in infrastructure
and the petrochemical sector, along with decreasing hydrocarbon exports, were
the main drivers for 2014's lower current account surplus of $10 million, or
0% of GDP in 2014. After increasing almost 13% in 2013, hydrocarbon exports
declined 0.8% in 2014. Bolivia is likely to incur a current account deficit
between 3% to 4% of GDP in 2015 based on lower hydrocarbon exports and higher
levels of imports related to planned public investments.
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3. Economic growth contributed to a decline in net general government debt, which
we project will fall to 14% of GDP in 2015 from 31% in 2007. Foreign exchange
reserves, excluding central bank assets held for future financing of
public-sector enterprises, slightly declined, to 44% of GDP in 2014 from 47%
in 2013, but remain adequate. We project Bolivia's gross external financing
requirements will equal a modest 17% of current account receipts (CAR) and
usable reserves in 2015. We estimate the country has a net external creditor
position of 7.7% of CAR this year.
GDP has grown at an average of 5% per year since 2006 and expanded 5.4% in
2014. We project that per capita GDP will exceed US$3,300 in 2015, more than
double the level in 2007. Per capita GDP growth averaged 3.9% in the past four
years, and we project it will average 2% in the next four years.
Greater economic stability, as well as regulatory measures and higher reserve
requirements, has contributed to declining levels of dollar-denominated assets
and liabilities in the financial system in recent years, improving the
effectiveness of monetary policy. Dollar-denominated deposits fell to 19% of
total deposits by the end of 2014 from 94% in 2002, and dollar-denominated
loans fell to 8% of total loans from 97% during the same period.
Our ratings on Bolivia reflect its strong fiscal and external balance sheet,
ample external liquidity, and long-term growth prospects. They also reflect
Bolivia's weak public institutions, as well as its fiscal and export
dependence on commodities, which can be subject to volatile prices. The
hydrocarbons (mainly natural gas) and minerals sectors accounted for the bulk
of exports last year. About one-third of public-sector revenues come directly
or indirectly from hydrocarbons.
Bolivia had its first public-sector deficit in 2014 after eight years of
surpluses that were supported by favorable commodity prices. The nonfinancial
public sector registered a deficit of 3.2% in fiscal 2014. This global deficit
was produced largely by public-sector enterprises (about 70%) and the
acceleration of spending by subnational governments prior to local elections
(about 30%), while the central government ended with a near balanced budget.
We expect the public-sector deficit to be 4% of GDP in 2015 due to lower
expected revenues coming from the hydrocarbon sector given low energy prices
and the government's decision to maintain a high level of investment spending.
Even though political uncertainty and fragmentation have diminished in recent
years, Bolivia's public institutions are weak and susceptible to
politicization. President Evo Morales, the country's predominant political
figure in recent years, enjoys high popularity. Morales' political party,
Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) holds a two-thirds majority in Congress, which
helps the government implement its policy agenda. However, MAS includes many
well-organized social groups, making it potentially difficult for the
government to adjust fiscal and other policies in the event of a prolonged
period of low commodity prices.
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Research Update: Plurinational State of Bolivia Long-Term Ratings Affirmed At 'BB'; Outlook Remains Stable

4. The effectiveness of Bolivia's long-term economic development strategy, which
relies considerably on energy-sector revenues, will be tested if energy prices
remain low, potentially resulting in persistent fiscal and current account
deficits. The government has chosen to maintain high public-sector investment
in 2015 and run a deficit at the level of the consolidated public sector in
order to sustain GDP growth. It has also taken initial steps to encourage
private-sector investment, especially in the agro-industry and hydrocarbon
sectors. Additional steps to encourage private-sector investments would boost
Bolivia's ability to sustain GDP growth over the medium term and give the
government more scope to tighten fiscal policy to avoid a potential erosion of
its fiscal profile and its debt burden.
Outlook
The stable outlook is based on our expectation of political stability and
continuity in economic policies over the next three years. We expect the
government will attempt to sustain GDP growth, and its ambitious economic
modernization plans rely heavily on public-sector investment in 2015. We also
assume that current efforts to boost reserves of natural gas and to ensure the
long-term sustainability of energy exports, as well as domestic
industrialization, will slowly begin to show results.
A prolonged period of low prices for commodity exports, combined with
inadequate fiscal adjustment, could result in persistent fiscal and current
account deficits. In addition, failure to encourage more private-sector
investment would increase the dependence of GDP growth on public-sector
investments, tightening the link between fiscal policy and economic growth.
The resulting erosion of Bolivia's fiscal and external profile could result in
a downgrade.
Total lending by financial institutions increased to 43% of GDP in 2014 from
35% in 2013 and may expand by 16% in 2015. Rapid credit growth raises the
importance of cautious application of regulatory policies. We expect that the
government will pragmatically apply financial legislation that was passed in
late 2013--giving it added powers to set interest rates and to direct lending
to specific sectors--in order to contain the risk of future contingent
liabilities that could weaken the rating.
Sustained higher investment in the energy sector could result in
greater-than-expected capacity for both production and exports over the next
three years. Steps to encourage more private investment would give the
government more scope to adjust public-sector investment to contain fiscal
deficits without affecting the country's long-term growth prospects. The
combination of continued GDP growth, higher hydrocarbon production, and a
gradual diversification of the economy would strengthen Bolivia's ability to
withstand a potentially sharp fall in commodity prices, leading to a higher
credit rating.
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Research Update: Plurinational State of Bolivia Long-Term Ratings Affirmed At 'BB'; Outlook Remains Stable

5. Key Statistics
Table 1
Selected Indicators
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Nominal GDP (bil. US$) 16.67 17.34 19.65 23.95 27.07 30.60 33.93 37.23 39.91 42.20 45.02
GDP per capita (US$) 1,696 1,735 1,935 2,320 2,579 2,868 3,128 3,376 3,559 3,702 3,884
Real GDP growth (%) 6.1 3.4 4.1 5.2 5.2 6.8 5.4 4.5 3.5 3.5 3.5
Real GDP per capita growth (%) 4.4 1.7 2.5 3.5 3.5 5.0 3.7 2.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
Change in general government debt/GDP (%) 2.0 3.6 1.4 1.7 2.3 2.6 1.4 2.0 1.8 1.2 0.4
General government balance/GDP (%) (0.0) (2.0) (0.1) (1.1) 1.8 1.4 (1.8) (1.7) (1.2) (0.6) (0.2)
General government debt/GDP (%) 35.4 38.7 35.6 31.3 30.1 29.2 27.7 27.3 27.0 26.0 24.5
Net general government debt/GDP (%) 25.8 26.0 20.4 16.7 13.6 12.3 13.0 13.9 14.6 14.7 14.0
General government interest expenditure/revenues (%) 2.4 4.7 4.9 3.0 2.6 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.8 2.9 3.0
Other dc claims on resident nongovernment
sector/GDP (%)
35.8 38.9 41.6 43.8 49.3 53.9 55.1 55.0 55.0 54.9 54.8
CPI growth (%) 14.0 3.3 2.5 9.8 4.6 5.7 5.8 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.5
Gross external financing needs/CARs plus usable
reserves (%)
52.9 48.2 50.0 57.4 51.2 51.6 55.7 59.8 60.9 61.5 61.9
Current account balance/GDP (%) 11.9 4.3 3.9 0.3 7.3 3.4 0.0 (3.5) (3.0) (2.0) (1.1)
Current account balance/CARs (%) 23.0 10.8 9.2 0.7 14.4 7.5 0.1 (8.4) (7.6) (5.2) (2.7)
Narrow net external debt/CARs (%) (51.8) (85.5) (67.4) (81.0) (75.1) (71.4) (69.8) (63.3) (59.4) (55.7) (52.4)
Net external liabilities/CARs (%) (14.9) (33.0) (38.3) (40.4) (37.7) (31.8) (18.5) (7.7) 1.5 7.9 11.1
Other depository corporations (dc) are financial
corporations (other than the central bank) whose
liabilities are included in the national definition of broad
money. Gross external financing needs are defined as
current account payments plus short-term external
debt at the end of the prior year plus nonresident
deposits at the end of the prior year plus long-term
external debt maturing within the year. Narrow net
external debt is defined as the stock of foreign and local
currency public- and private-sector borrowings from
nonresidents minus official reserves minus
public-sector liquid assets held by nonresidents minus
financial-sector loans to, deposits with, or investments
in nonresident entities. A negative number indicates net
external lending. CARs--Current account receipts. The
data and ratios above result from Standard & Poor's
own calculations, drawing on national as well as
international sources, reflecting Standard & Poor's
independent view on the timeliness, coverage,
accuracy, credibility, and usability of available
information.
Ratings Score Snapshot
Table 2
Ratings Score Snapshot
Key rating factors
Institutional assessment Weakness
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Research Update: Plurinational State of Bolivia Long-Term Ratings Affirmed At 'BB'; Outlook Remains Stable

6. Table 2
Ratings Score Snapshot (cont.)
Economic assessment Weakness
External assessment Strength
Fiscal assessment: flexibility and performance Neutral
Fiscal assessment: debt burden Strength
Monetary assessment Neutral
Standard & Poor's analysis of sovereign creditworthiness rests on its assessment and scoring of five key rating factors: (i)
institutional assessment; (ii) economic assessment; (iii) external assessment; (iv) the average of fiscal flexibility and performance,
and debt burden; and (v) monetary assessment. Each of the factors is assessed on a continuum spanning from 1 (strongest) to 6
(weakest). Section V.B of Standard & Poor's "Sovereign Rating Methodology," published on Dec. 23, 2014, summarizes how the
various factors are combined to derive the sovereign foreign currency rating, while section V.C details how the scores are derived.
The ratings score snapshot summarizes whether we consider that the individual rating factors listed in our methodology constitute
a strength or a weakness to the sovereign credit profile, or whether we consider them to be neutral. The concepts of "strength,"
"neutral," or "weakness" are absolute, rather than in relation to sovereigns in a given rating category. Therefore, highly rated
sovereigns will typically display more strengths, and lower rated sovereigns more weaknesses. In accordance with Standard &
Poor's sovereign ratings methodology, a change in assessment of the aforementioned factors does not in all cases lead to a change
in the rating, nor is a change in the rating necessarily predicated on changes in one or more of the assessments.
Related Criteria And Research
Related Criteria
• Sovereign Rating Methodology, Dec. 23, 2014
• Methodology For Linking Short-Term And Long-Term Ratings For Corporate,
Insurance, And Sovereign Issuers, May 7, 2013
• Criteria For Determining Transfer And Convertibility Assessments, May 18,
2009
Related Research
• Global Sovereign Debt Report 2015: Borrowing To Drop By 5.7% To US$6.7
Trillion, March 5, 2015
• Sovereign Defaults And Rating Transition Data, 2013 Update, Sept. 17,
2014
• Plurinational State of Bolivia, June 11, 2014
• Sovereign Risk Indicators, found at spratings.com/sri
In accordance with our relevant policies and procedures, the Rating Committee
was composed of analysts that are qualified to vote in the committee, with
sufficient experience to convey the appropriate level of knowledge and
understanding of the methodology applicable (see 'Related Criteria And
Research'). At the onset of the committee, the chair confirmed that the
information provided to the Rating Committee by the primary analyst had been
distributed in a timely manner and was sufficient for Committee members to
make an informed decision.
After the primary analyst gave opening remarks and explained the
recommendation, the Committee discussed key rating factors and critical issues
in accordance with the relevant criteria. Qualitative and quantitative risk
factors were considered and discussed, looking at track-record and forecasts.
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Research Update: Plurinational State of Bolivia Long-Term Ratings Affirmed At 'BB'; Outlook Remains Stable

7. The committee agreed that all key rating factors were unchanged.
The chair ensured every voting member was given the opportunity to articulate
his/her opinion. The chair or designee reviewed the draft report to ensure
consistency with the Committee decision. The views and the decision of the
rating committee are summarized in the above rationale and outlook. The
weighting of all rating factors is described in the methodology used in this
rating action (see 'Related Criteria And Research').
Ratings List
Ratings Affirmed
Bolivia (Plurinational State of)
Sovereign Credit Rating BB/Stable/B
Transfer & Convertibility Assessment BB
Senior Unsecured BB
Additional Contact:
Dominica Zavala, Sao Paulo 55 11 3039 7719; Dominica.Zavala@standardandpoors.com
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Research Update: Plurinational State of Bolivia Long-Term Ratings Affirmed At 'BB'; Outlook Remains Stable

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