Brazil's progress toward the future of agriculture cities’ role perspectives
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Seminar presented at the round table "Future of Food" in Columbia University - NY in may 2016.
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Brazil's progress toward the future of agriculture cities’ role perspectives
- 1. Brazil's Progress Toward the Future of Agriculture Cities’ Role Perspectives Antonio Oliveira, Ph.D
- 2. CGEE - A Brief Description CGEE ORIGINS • Created in 2001 • Non-profit organization • STI studies for economic growth competitiveness and well being in Brazil CONTROLS • Overseen by the Ministry of Science Technology and Innovation • Subjected to auditing by Brazilian Supreme Audit Institutions SIZE AND BUDGET • Staff ~80 employees • Annual budget 10M US$ STRENGTHS • ~ 2000 experts from 300 institutions per year • ~ 400 studies in Science Technology and Innovation
- 3. To promote Science, Technology and Innovation to advance economic growth, competitiveness and well-being in Brazil Mission and core activities Future Studies Strategic Evaluation Information and Knowledge Management CGEE
- 4. The Study
- 5. Objective Identifying integrated courses of action aiming at strengthening Brazil's proactive role towards the sustainability of food production
- 7. 70% 100% Developing countries world 2050 Em tons of grains 1 billion 200 mi tons of meat Annual production must increase at least¹: Grain average growth² Food demand Challenges ¹ FAO 2013; ² FAO 2009;
- 8. Avoid food waste and losses ¹ FAO (201?); ² TESCO (2013); World 30 – 50% 1,2 – 2 billion tons per year -25% of waste = feed 500 milhões people/year¹ 14,5% In UK (TESCO): fruits and vegetables Waste in the UK² 21% 41% 50% banana²backery items 1,5 Millions of tons/year Challenges
- 10. Dimensions
- 11. Key Drivers
- 12. Drivers - Population growth ¹ FAO, 2009; ² UN data from Global Harvest Iniative GAP Report, 2011; ³ IBGE, 2013; 2050In + 2,3 billions¹ Major population growth² total of 9,3 billions 41% 49% “zero growth” 20502042 Brazil³ World 2013 201 mi inhabitants 0 – 14 15 – 64 > 65 68,4% 7,4% 24,1% 63,2% 22,6% 14,1% Demographic window 226 mi inhabitants
- 13. ¹ FMI (2011) per capita income (estimated) 39 em 2050 mil (US$) Brasil Russia China Indonesia India 100% 53% 85% 75% 67% Brazil World¹ Between 1990 and 2016 10.3 em 2013 mil (US$) 21 em 2030 mil (US$) Drivers - per capita income growth
- 14. ¹ World Bank (2014); ² Painel Brasileiro de Mudanças Climáticas- PBMC (2013) Soya going up going down Sugarcane + = 35% greenhouse gases emissions Brazil² World¹ | Greenhouse gases emissions (15%) 18% enteric fermentation Estimated losses in 2020: R$ 7,4 bilions 35% 20% 12% Irrigated rice (paddy) Enteric fermentation Fertilizers 12% Animal waste Drivers - Global climate change
- 15. ¹Euromonitor (2012); 5 milhões aging between 18 to 34 in 2010 270 million people in households occupied by just one person Brazil World 10% of households occupied by just one person searching for food easy to prepare and consume 77% 28% 2006 Drivers - consumers habits and behaviors¹ Single person household and older people
- 16. Heathier food Practical and convenience Higher collective consciousness Gourmet Digital Cooking Homemade Vegetarianism Health Certified origin Functional food Good nutrition Easy preparation Intelligent packaging E-commerce Personal satisfaction & collective well-being Sustainability Local production Sensorial experiences Differential in quality Sophistication Highly customized production (individual and industrial) High variety of new ingredients 3D manufacturing Cultural preferences Homemade meals at working environments Tradition No animal protein intake (total or partial) Animal protein substitutes (“fakemeat”) Drivers - trends at consumers level
- 17. ¹ United Nations (2011); ² IBGE (2013) Brazil² 1950 20502010 14% 6% 36,2% Urban 70% Rural 30% 2012 2050 Urban 50% Rural 50% World1 94%86%63,8% urban rural Drivers - Urbanization
- 19. Pillars of Sustainable Food in Brazil CT&I, educação e capacidade I II Viabilidade econômica,sociale ambiental IIIInfraestrutura, logísticaetecnologia dainformação VI Consumo,saúdee bem–estarV Culturadecomércio internacional IV Promoção de empreendedorismo Projeto alimentosSustainable Food Entrepreneurship Science, Technology, Education and Capacity Building
- 20. External Agents of the Food Suply Chain Certifying Agencies Software industries Regulatory Agencies International Organizations STI institutions Funding Agencies
- 21. Challenge: diversify food products in the market Pilar I — STI, Education and Capacity Building R&D applied to discovering new polymers and substances obtained from biology engineering platforms Recommendation Important to be competitive at the 3D manufacturing market Justification Conclusion and Recommendations
- 22. Challenge: creating a competitive differential for the food industry Pilar I — STI, Education and Capacity Building Establish the carbon footprint in the whole food chain Recommendation Selo Baixo Carbono, MMA; Coalizão de Empresas pelo Clima, FBDS Conclusion and Recommendations
- 23. The Role of Cities
- 24. The Role of Cities
- 25. Slide 25 § 680 solutions organised in 12 interconnected themes Results 5653 56 49 8460 38 78 63 415250 Energia Health Agriculture Solid waste Water Security Governance Built-in Environment Energy Economy Resilience Mobility Education
- 26. Slide 26 Urban & Peri-urban Agriculture v Rooftop Farming v Green Walls v Green Belts v Beekeeping v Vertical Farming
- 27. Slide 27 Producers and Consumers Relationship v Creation of cooperatives v Agreements between schools and small farmers v Online sales of products v Municipal markets
- 28. Slide 28 Policies and Programs v Urban agriculture in city planning v tax incentives for production urban and peri-urban food v Regulate the re-location of the food supply v educational programs of urban agriculture in community spaces v Food waste reduction
- 29. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pHcnhDtj2CU How kids see the city of the future
- 30. Thanks for your attention www.cgee.org.br aoliveira@cgee.org.br