2. 2
Accuvest Weekly Update
Global Financial Conditions
• Global Financial Conditions have deteriorated, but remain improved since the “Q.E. Taper Tantrum” in June
• Macro Risk and Financial Market Stress have increased rather sharply this month
• The VIX Index (implied S&P 500 volatility) closed @ 13.98, down from 14.37 last week after a substantial drop on Friday (expiration)
• This week – Emerging Market Equity and Oil struggled, while Precious Metals and Fixed Income rallied
Global Equity Markets
• The S&P 500 is trading at 16x current earnings, 12M forward estimates equal 14.5x (down 1.56% over the last 4 weeks)
• The MSCI ACWI is trading at 21.6x current earnings, 12M forward estimates equal 13.5x (down 0.4% over the last 4 weeks)
• The S&P 500 was up 0.5% this week, and is currently holding its 50 Day MA
• The MSCI All Country World Index is losing momentum and has failed to break above May 2013 highs
• The MSCI Emerging Market Index has shown improvement, but has broken back below its 50DMA
Interest Rates and Fixed Income
• 10 year US Treasury Yields closed the week at 2.81%, down from 2.82% last week after spiking mid-week
• 10 year US Treasury Yields are forecasted to be 2.77% at the end of 2013
• Investment Grade Bonds rallied 0.6% this week, and spreads remain narrow @ 1.66%, up from 1.63% last week
• High Yield Bonds rallied 0.9% this week, but remain below consecutive lower highs as the 50DMA crosses below the 200DMA
• High Yield credit spreads widened slightly to 3.55%, up from 3.49% last week
• Mortgage Rates @ 4.80%, up from 4.67% last week
3. 3
Accuvest Weekly Update
The Economy
• Housing/Real Estate and Personal Indicators are highlights of the US Economy
• The Industrial Sector and Retail Sector are lowlights of the US Economy
• Leading Economic Indicators grew 0.6% on the month, beating expectations of 0.5%
• Next week’s U.S. economic calendar includes data on Durable Goods, Consumer Confidence, and Personal Income
• US Economic Data has recently come in worse than expectations
Major Currencies
• MXN/USD @ 12.95, weakening from 12.91 last week after touching a high of 13.30/USD on Thursday
• USD/EUR @ 1.338, at the high end of the Year-to-Date range
• USD/AUD @ 0.90, weakening from 0.92 last week, but momentum has improved
• JPY/USD @ 98.72, weakening from 97.53 last week, primary resistance @ 103.57
Commodities
• Gold @ $1397/oz., up from $1200/oz. on June 27th, and now approaching resistance at $1400/oz..
• The Gold to Gold Miners Ratio has broken to the downside, and is now approaching 200DMA support
• Crude Oil @ $106.42, down from $107.75/barrel last week and struggling with resistance @ $108/barrel
• Copper @ $334.85/lb., near 6 month highs, but down from $336.00/lb. last week and struggling to break above 338.00 resistance
disclosure: The opinions expressed in this Weekly Chart Book report are those of the author. The materials and commentary are strictly
informational and should be used for research use only. This bulletin is not intended to provide investing or other advice or guidance with
respect to the matters addressed in the bulletin. All relevant facts, including individual circumstances, need to be considered by the reader to
arrive at investment conclusions that comply with matters addressed in this bulletin. Charts and information used in this report are sourced
from Bloomberg.
