SiC market 2013 Report by Yole Developpement


Published on and Market for SiC Wafers, Devices and Power Modules report

Displacement of silicon has already begun...

Despite overall power electronics 2012 downturn, SiC kept on growing

Started late in 2011, the power electronics downturn in 2012 was quite severe, exhibiting -20% negative growth. The market suffered from the global economic downturn combined with external factors like China controlling what happened in some selected markets (Wind turbine or Rail traction projects that have been stopped or postponed).

However, the SiC device market kept on growing with a +38% increase year to year.

SiC technology is now commonly accepted as a reliable and pertinent alternative to the silicon world. Most power module and power inverter manufacturers have already included it in their roadmap as an option or as a firm project. However time-to-market differs from application to application as a function of value proposals for cost, specifications, availability and so on….

Despite a quite depressed market last year, PV inverters have proven their appetite for SiC devices in 2012. They are the biggest consumer of SiC devices together with PFCs.

In 2011 and 2012 SiC diode business was the most buoyancy due to micro-inverter applications, however we are confident that both JFET and MOSFET will quickly catch-up and become dominant in revenue by 2016.

SiC device (bare-dies or packaged discretes) market reached about $75M in 2012 with a sharp domination by Infineon and CREE again, however the competition is little by little grabbing market share with STMicroelectronics and Rohm closing the loop.

30 contenders, half-a-dozen of new entrants, 1 dead

There are now more than 30 companies worldwide which have established a dedicated SiC device manufacturing capability with related commercial and promotion activities. Virtually, all other existing Silicon-based power device makers are also more or less active in the SiC market but at different stages.

2012 has seen the ramp-up of some companies, such as Rohm, MicroSemi, GeneSiC or STMicro, facing the 2 giants CREE and Infineon, prefiguring a new market shaping in the coming years.

Four new companies - Raytheon, Ascatron, IBS and Fraunhofer IISB - have decided, almost simultaneously, to launch SiC foundry services or contract manufacturing services. This business model establishment addresses the demand of future SiC fabless and design houses that may look for specific manufacturing partners. It will also probably act as a possible second source for IDMs in cases of production overshoot.

In Asia, Panasonic and Toshiba are now clearly identified as credible contenders, along with Mitsubishi Electric, now developing SiC power modules. Fuji Electric’s new SiC line is now running within the Japanese national program.

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SiC market 2013 Report by Yole Developpement

  1. 1. © 2013SiC Market 2013Displacement of silicon has already begun...Dow corningII-VI AIST DensoCREE75, cours Emile ZOLA, F-69100 Villeurbanne, FranceTel: +33 472 83 01 80 - Fax: +33 472 83 01 83Web: http://www.yole.frAlstomMitsubishi
  2. 2. © 2013 • 2Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.SiC Device Sales in 2012A $75M business on the open market2012 analysis of merchant sales of SiC devices forcommercial applications, on the open market, out ofdefense-related business and R&D contractsCareful! For numerous SiCdevice makers, overallrevenues can more thandoubled thanks to R&Dcontracts and defense-relatedactivities.Thus, another $XXM mayhave been realized, pushingthe global revenuesgenerated by SiC deviceactivity closer to a total of$XXXM.Executive SummaryOthers are 2012 merchant activities from:- Company A- Company B- Company C- Company D- Company E- …Some captive markets are not counted here:- Mitsubishi Electric-…
  3. 3. © 2013 • 3Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.Projection of SiC Power Device Market SizeSplit by application: Nominal scenarioExecutive SummarySource: Yole Développement
  4. 4. © 2013 • 4Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.% of SiC revenues by companyheadquarter location. 2002-2020CREE domination Infineon then STMicro ramp-up Japan to catch-up Other Asians startingJapan takes the lead
  5. 5. © 2013 • 5Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.6kV4kV2kV200A 1kA 2kA 2.2kA+1MHz100kHz1kHz100HzVoltageApplications:All type of inverterRange kW to MWApplications:Motor control, PV, Wind,Grid, rail tractionHigh to very high voltageApplications: Grid / Very high voltage8kV10kVSiC value-proposition: as fast as MOSFET, aspowerful as thyristorNew capabilities offered by SiC: severalkV, several kA, several 100’s kHz
  6. 6. © 2013 • 6Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.PowerModulesWhere are SiC chips used over the entirepower industry value-chainCapacitorsLaminated BusbarCooling systems Power InverterDriversPower StackAssemblyOther passivesProtection ConnectorsSemiconductor devicesSiC chipsSiC vs. Si Market
  7. 7. © 2013 • 7Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.Overall Power Electronics Market2012 – 2020 value chain analysis: wafer, device, systemElectronics Systems$122 BPower Inverters$41 BSemiconductor powerdevices (discrete andmodules)$12.5BPower wafers$980MElectronics Systems$144 BPower Inverters> $70 BSemiconductor powerdevices (discrete andmodules)$21.9 BPower wafers$1.3 B2012 2020CAGR: +5.6%CAGR: +7.9%CAGR: +1.9%CAGR: +7.2%SiC vs. Si Market
  8. 8. © 2013 • 8Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.Focus on ChinaTool-set and main results• Tool-set:– SiC crystal growth• About XX home-made sublimation reactors installed– SiC epitaxy• Between X to X SiC epi-reactors installed in China(Epigress/Aixtron)• Achievement– SiC wafer:• Diameter: 2” in 2003, 3” in 2008, 4” in 2011. 6” forecasted by 2015• Micropipe density:– < 1 /cm² for 2” and 3”– < 10 /cm² for 4”• Total capacity: ~X000 W/month
  9. 9. © 2013 • 9Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.Market forecasts for EV/HEV Power Modules in M$Nominal ScenarioHEV Market
  10. 10. © 2013 • 10Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.PV inverters commercial products with SiCHybrid Si/SiC products– Power One (US): Aurora Micro-inverter 205W (Micro-0.25-I-OUTD-230)• 2 CREE SiC diodes 1200V/5A (TO263) + 2 CREE diodes 600V/4A (TO252)Courtesy of System+ConsultingPV Inverter
  11. 11. © 2013 • 11Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.Implementation roadmap of SiC devicesin PV inverters by power rangePV Inverter
  12. 12. © 2013 • 12Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.Estimated market shares of SiC devicevendors and users for PV inverters in 2012PV InverterMOS + DiodesJ-FET + DiodesBreakdown over a total market size of ~$XXM in 2011???Diodes (1200V/22A)Diodes (1200V/5A)
  13. 13. © 2013 • 13Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.Motor drives applications by powerand voltage range<1kW10kW100kW>1MW1200V600V 1700V 3300V 6500VMedium voltage drives >1kV DC linkLow voltage drives <1kV DC linkDrive powerIGBT voltageIPMPowermodulesHV Powermodules+3.3kVMotor Drive Market
  14. 14. © 2013 • 14Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.SiC Growth TechnologiesMain conceptsSublimation(PVT)HT CVDHetero-epitaxy3C-SiCLPEPhysicsProMost used technologyWidely implementedContinuous material feedingHighly tunable parametersTurn-key equipmentSupposedly low-costFully scalable in ØSimilar to Cz methodConsPowder purity is keyGrowth rate, CrystallengthNo turn-key equipmentTrade-off growth-rate vs.defect densityWafer bowingDefect densityMetal contaminationCarbon solubility in SimeltSiC Substrate MarketSiC depositedby LPCVD“undulant” Si wafer,removed after growth(Hoya patent)
  15. 15. © 2013 • 15Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.Evolution of Relative Market Shares in the SiC Business2006-2012SiC Substrate MarketSource: Yole Développement
  16. 16. © 2013 • 16Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.Estimation of market price for SiC devices600V & 1.2kV Diode and MOSFET to 2020Main hypothesis:- Market price for bare chips sold in medium to large volume (> 5,000 pieces / order)- X%/year price erosion over 2011-2012- X%/year price erosion over 2013-2016 thanks to 6” wafer introduction + yield improvement- X%/year price erosion over 2017-2018 thanks to mass-volume effect- X%/year price erosion over 2019-20: back to nominal conditionsSiC Device Technologies
  17. 17. © 2013 • 17Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.Packaging of Power ModulesHeatsinkThermal greaseSubstrateSBD IGBTBaseplateDBCBusbarconnectionSolderCoppermetallizationPlastic case• Common failure in a power module is caused by thermal cycling.Mismatching CTE (coefficient of thermal expansion) make layers to detachone from the other. Some gel filling also cannot handle high temperatureDie attachInterconnectionGel fillingSubstrates attachIn red: Common failure locationsSiC power modules