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The food challenge: Feeding 100 million Ethiopians
- 1. 1 The Food Challenge: Feeding 100 Million Ethiopians Woldeyesus Sinebo
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- 3. 3 Hunger and social strife are linked • Recent food riots & instability • Hunger could spark revolutionary violence & topple regimes • Lord John Boyd Orr, "You can't build peace on empty stomachs." • Borlaug “If you desire peace, cultivate justice, but at the same time cultivate the fields to produce more bread; otherwise there will be no peace.” Source: The Green Revolution, Peace, and Humanity ; Nobel Lecture, Dec. 1970
- 4. 4 “Hunger remains a touchy issue in Ethiopia” • The famine of 1973-74 brought down the Emperor and the one of 1984-85 marked the beginning of the end of Derg. • Hunger image affects investment, undercuts Ethiopia’s pride – “…world starvation had a very specific face for us: a wide-eyed, big- bellied, fly-covered Ethiopian.” – ''hunger has left its indelible scar on the history of our country, the honor and morale of our people.'' Pres. Mengistu Hailemariam – "Our agricultural sector is our Achilles' heel and the source of Ethiopia's vulnerability," P.M. Meles Zenawi • Various efforts but the war has not been won. “Will it ever be able to stave off starvation?” (The Economist, 12June 2008). • Possible with change in perspectives and attitudes in respect of food production and food habits
- 5. 5 Priority for food production • Accessing food difficult even for countries with better resources. "We're past the time when food was abundant…", president of Save the Children USA food aid unreliable • "There's this fatigue: 'Here's Ethiopia again, looking for food again.' ", the U.S. aid mission chief. • The productive safety net program – to decrease the number (8.29 million) of chronically food insecure population from year to year as households graduate from food insecurity. • “A bottomless dependency” – beneath the safety net, “Ethiopian agriculture is weaker than ever.” • “Per-capita farm production has fallen… since the famine of 1984-85”, largely because of population doubling and drought.
- 6. 6 1.1 Further energize GR style technologies • H20 is the missing link – Japan late 19th & early 20th – Korea & Taiwan in early 20th – Drought is around the corner; stream diversion, UNDERGROUND H20 1. Intervention themes
- 7. 7 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 Year Yield(Q/ha) China Viet Nam Ghana Egypt Kenya R.Korea Ethiopia India Cereal yield trends (Source: FAO) 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 Year Yield(Q/ha) SSA Developing Asia LA&C North America EU Developed Asia
- 8. 8 Irrigated land area trends (Source: FAO) 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 Year Area(1000ha) SSA Asia Developed EU LA&C North America China India 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 Year Area(1000ha) Egypt Ethiopia Ghana Kenya R.Korea Viet Nam
- 9. 9 Nitrogen fertilizer use trends (Source: FAO) 0 5000000 10000000 15000000 20000000 25000000 30000000 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 Year MT Africa South of Sahara Asia Developed Latin Amer & Caribbean North America Developed European Union (12) China India 0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000 1400000 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 Year MT Kenya Korea, Republic of Viet Nam Egypt Ethiopia
- 10. 10 1.2 Intensification through multiple cropping • • Farmers negligent when nature is kind /resource not limiting • Innovative to overcome difficulties • Sequential double or triple • Intercropping – Land use efficiency – Environment friendly • Integrate in extension packages • Further research to validate, improve & scale up best farmers’ practices
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- 12. 12 1.3 Managing soil erosion
- 13. 13 • Agriculture is the prime cause of deforestation, soil degradation, loss of biodiversity & desertification • Not about environmental romanticism • Increasing productivity is a prime means of natural resource protection • Soil erosion & nutrient mining & still hungry • Our agriculture is precarious, unsustainable • Posterity in greater jeopardy • Legislation may be needed
- 14. 14 Fig. Actual and projected cereal imports by Ethiopia. Source: IMF (2008). y = 3.8x + 163.33 R2 = 0.5061 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 Fisical year $USDmillions 12 17 22 27 32 37 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 FisicalYear Fig. PASDEP’s actual & projected cereal yield growth. (MoFED, 2006) 1.4 For food security, “try spuds” (potatoes)
- 15. 15 Dependence on cereals: A “roadmap” to disaster? Desperation Environmental degradation Conflict Low Agricultural Productivity Poverty • PASDEP’s crop production goal – make the country food self- sufficient and ensure household food security for the rapidly growing population – improve the provision of quality products for the local agro-industry and for the export market. • Impossible to attain food security with a major focus on grains • Vicious circle of low productivity, poverty, resource degradation & conflict
- 16. 16 In Praise of Potatoes • The Economist Feb 28th 2008; – “world-changing tuber”; “Wonder-food”: “…high yield and its almost perfect balance of nutrients.” “Potatoes can produce more energy per unit area per day than any other crop, and it is possible to subsist on a diet of spuds and very little else.” – “In Ireland, the booming population subsisted almost entirely on potatoes” • The New York Times, October 26, 2008 – “To Counter Problems of Food Aid, Try Spuds”. “…an acre of potatoes yields more protein than an acre of wheat”
- 17. 17 Humble beginnings, excellent endings • Thought to cause diseases such as leprosy, poisonous or fit for animals only • Praised when its food security role during drought & war were recognized; famed the king of foods • Helped countries to eradicate hunger, to transition from agriculture to industry • Supplied 80% of the calorie to Irish, hence the importance & the tragedy when the crop failed
- 18. 18 World’s top potato consumers Country Quantity (t) Country Kg /capita 1 China 47 594 193 1 Belarus 181 2 Russia 18 828 000 2 Kyrgyzstan 143 3 India 17 380 730 3 Ukraine 136 4 USA 17 105 000 4 Russia 131 5 Ukraine 6 380 850 5 Poland 131 6 UK 6 169 000 6 Rwanda 125 7 Germany 5 572 000 7 Lithuania 116 8 Poland 5 000 000 8 Latvia 114 9 Bangladesh 4 041 463 9 Kazakhstan 103 10 Iran 3 991 142 10 UK 102 Ethiopia 525 657 Ethiopia 5
- 19. 19 • According to FAO (2008), in Ethiopia potato – widely regarded as a secondary crop – insurance crop against cereal crop failures. – has the greatest potential in Africa • 70% of arable land believed suitable for the potato. • could play a key role in ensuring national food security. • A potato hunger in southern Ethiopia – A discrepancy in belg rain loss of potato hunger – Enset revived since potato expanded – Big impact in Oromiya (Shashamane, west Shewa, etc), Amhara (Awi, South Gondar, etc.) • Great potential for food security, with better seed supply & supplementary irrigation during belg
- 20. 20 1.5 Cassava • Easy to produce, tolerant to drought & infertile soils; harvested anytime between ~7-18 mo. after planting • A cheap source of calories, replaces cereals in bakeries, animal feed • Industrial value - from starch to ethanol, Thailand the largest exporter ~ USD $1 billion • Usual yield ~ 9 t/ha ≈3.5 t grain per ha; plot yield ~80 t/ha (fresh) ~29 t/ha (dry) • Largest producers: Nigeria (in million t) ~34; Brazil ~22; Thailand ~17; Indonesia ~16; DRC ~14.
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- 23. 23 • Pres. Obasanjo offered to share experiences on cassava production & processing; not heeded • Limited production & consumption in southern Ethiopia: cooked & eaten or ground & mixed with other grain flour, then baked into enjera • Promising developments in the north • Almost entirely not known in Addis • A long search & an encounter at Canaan food grocery – The first Addis Ababan to ask for – Entirely for foreigners (9 birr/kg) Cassava in Ethiopia
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- 25. 25 • Ethiopia is a land of contrasts, tropical to temperate climates, range of crops • Problematic food habits –people with a better purchasing power have narrow food habits A nation synonymous with hunger • Potatoes in the highlands, cassava in the lowlands goodbye food aid? • A clarion call: invest on cassava, invest on potatoes; no need to import much wheat in <5 yrs
- 26. 26 • “UNDP teaches Ethiopians how to eat rice” • What type of food is proper food for Ethiopians? • Why have other African countries not fared as bad as we do/did on food security? • How does Nigeria feed 140 m while we go hungry with 76 m? If oil, what about Ghana? • What is produced & consumed in Uganda, Brazil, Congo, Cuba Cameroon, etc.? 1.6 Intensive work on food habits
- 27. 27 • What is eaten in Wollega, Wolaita? • What crops should Ethiopia grow, what animals should it rear, what foods should it promote in order to do away with this hunger nation image? • Stuck to a dominant culture that fosters a narrow range of food crop production & consumption; a culture of enjera; elites’ perspectives & deeds confined to this narrow box No solution to our hunger problem • Go south: agro-ecology & culture invite the production & consumption of panoply of food crops other than tef. But it is tef enjera in towns & cities • Food production & consumption centered on grain crops unsustainable in view of the rapidly growing population • No food security by treading the same old path
- 28. 28 ትግሬ አገሩ ገባ ወሎም ተከተለ ከምባታ ብቻ ቀረ ዱባ እየነቀለ • Time for Ethiopians to pull pumpkins to survive & thrive! Time to pull cassava! • Food range can be expanded: food habit is nothing more than being habit; not a taboo or religion. – E.g. Brazil: animal ears & hooves • Change inevitable; the issue is let us speed it up
- 29. 29 Conclusion: General • In Ethiopia, building a hunger-free, peaceful, prosperous and just society is possible in a not-so- distant future. • But this depends on policies and practices that serve to expand systems of food production that are economically and ecologically sustainable. • Critical changes may be required: – in perspectives and attitudes in respect of food production and food habits. – in the way certain food and agriculture policies are formulated and applied. – in the level of understanding and commitment by agricultural researchers, development practioners, policy makers, and the people at large.
- 30. 30 • Promote eco-agriculture to maintain or improve cultivated soils • Strengthen GR technology supply & diffusion – Attention for surface as well as underground water use for agric. • Improve / scale-up best multiple cropping practices • Focus on food security crops, notably potato & cassava • Expand food habits of the population in general & the urbanites in particular Conclusion: Specific interventions