Commodity report Ways2Capital 12 nov 2014

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✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS
DALLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
SYOREFIDR 19-12-14 605 603 601 699 697 695 693 691 689
SYBEANIDR 19-12-14 3430 3415 3400 3385 3370 3355 3340 3320 3305
RMSEED 19-12-14 3850 3835 3820 3805 3790 3765 3750 3730 3715
JEERAUNJHA 19-12-14 12300 12250 12200 12150 12100 12050 12000 11950 11900
DHANIYA 19-12-14 12700 12600 12500 12400 12300 12200 12000 11900 11800
CASTORSEED 19-12-14 4850 4835 4820 4805 4780 4765 4750 4720 4705
✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
SYOREFIDR 19-12-14 600 597 593 589 585 582 579 576 572
SYBEANIDR 19-12-14 3415 3385 3365 3340 3310 3280 3250 3220 3190
RMSEED 19-12-14 3880 3850 3820 3795 3770 3740 3720 3685 3660
JEERAUNJHA 19-12-14 12800 12600 12400 12200 12000 11800 11600 11400 11200
DHANIYA 19-12-14 13000 12800 12600 12400 12200 12000 11800 11600 11400
CASTORSEED 19-12-14 4900 4870 4850 4820 4790 4760 4730 4700 4690
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✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS
DALLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
ALUMINIUM 28-NOV-14 130 129 127 125 123 121 118 116 114
COPPER 28-NOV-14 421 418 415 412 409 406 403 400 397
CRUDE OIL 19-NOV-14 4970 4950 4930 4910 4890 4870 4850 4830 4810
GOLD 5-DEC-14 26200 26100 26000 25900 25800 25700 25600 25500 25400
LEAD 28-NOV-14 130 128 126 124 122 120 118 116 14
NATURAL GAS 24-NOV-14 282 280 278 277 274 271 269 267 265
NICKEL 28-NOV-14 960 940 920 900 890 870 850 830 810
✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
ALUMINIUM 28-NOV-14 132 129 126 123 120 117 114 111 109
COPPER 28-NOV-14 430 425 420 415 410 405 400 395 390
CRUDE OIL 19-NOV-14 5000 4970 4950 4925 4900 4870 4840 4810 4790
GOLD 5-DEC-14 26500 26300 26100 25900 25700 25500 25300 25100 24890
LEAD 28-NOV-14 132 129 126 123 121 119 117 114 111
NATURAL GAS 24-NOV-14 285 281 278 275 271 268 265 263 260
NICKEL 28-NOV-14 1020 990 960 930 900 870 840 810 790
SILVER 5-DEC-14 36000 35600 35200 34900 34500 34100 33800 33500 33100
ZINC 28-NOV-14 145 142 140 138 136 133 131 129 127

✍ MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
U.S. non-farm payrolls grew at a fairly brisk 214,000 pace, but this was under economists'
forecasts for 231,000. The jobless rate dropped to a fresh six-year low of 5.8 percent.
Both the International Monetary Fund and the United States encouraged the ECB and the BoJ
toward greater monetary stimulus during a conference of central bankers in Paris on Friday.
Libya hopes to reopen the southern El Sharara oilfield "very soon" but first needs to solve a
conflict between local tribes, an oil official said on Thursday. Gunmen stormed the field and
looted equipment at the 340,000 barrels a day field, shutting down production, oil officials said
on Wednesday. Details are unclear but pictures on social media showed damaged cars at the
field located deep in the south where rival tribes have been fighting for weeks.
PRECIOUS METALS
Silver climbed 1.8 percent to $15.65 an ounce after hitting the lowest since February 2010 at
$15.03. Silver has been the worst-performing precious metal this week, down around 3 percent.
The dollar fell on Friday after a solid but below-expectation October U.S. jobs report as
investors took profits on the greenback's months-long rally that has taken it to multi-year highs
in anticipation of tighter U.S. monetary policy next year. U.S. nonfarm payrolls grew at a fairly
brisk 214,000 pace, but this was under economists' forecasts for 231,000. The jobless rate
dropped to a fresh six-year low of 5.8 percent.
Gold rose 2.6 percent on Friday, its biggest one-day gain in nearly five months, as a retreat in
the U.S. dollar and heavy short-covering lifted bullion from a 4-1/2-year low.
The metal notched a third straight week of losses, however, having dropped to its lowest since
April 2010 at $1,131.85 an ounce earlier on Friday. The dollar slipped after a solid but below-expectation
October U.S. jobs report as investors took profits on the greenback's months-long
rally, which has seen it reach multi-year highs in anticipation of tighter U.S. monetary policy
next year. Gold had been under pressure for a week from a rising dollar, which has benefited
from expectations the Federal Reserve will move before other central banks to tighten
monetary policy. Despite coming in below expectations, the U.S. payrolls report showed the
unemployment rate fell to a fresh six-year low, suggesting the economy remains on a
strengthening path.

BASE METAL
Base metals on the LME traded on a mixed note last week after comments by the European
Central Bank indicating readiness to use additional measures to shore up the economy. Ultra-loose
monetary policy adopted by central banks around the world in the past few years has
drawn investors to commodities including the base metals pack as an alternative to interest-bearing
assets. In the Indian markets, base metals traded mixed taking cues from trend in the
international markets
Copper prices rose on Friday as a mixed U.S. payrolls report offered investors relief that the
world's largest economy had not lost steam, while aluminium extended losses as producers and
trade houses sold. Data showed U.S. job growth increased at a fairly brisk clip in October and
the unemployment rate fell to a fresh six-year low, underscoring the economy's resilience in the
face of slowing global demand.
U.S. crude climbed less than a dollar on Friday but finished down more than 2 percent for the
week, marking the first time the benchmark has fallen for six straight weeks since December
1998. The Friday rally was driven in part by geopolitical tremors in Ukraine and the dollar
backing off of its four-year high.
The dollar helped drive both the daily gains and the weekly losses, as Friday it retreated from
its strongest level against a basket of foreign currencies in over four years. A strong dollar
stunts the price of dollar-denominated oil benchmarks. The Ukrainian military accused Russia
of sending 32 tanks and truckloads of troops across the border, which if true would signal an
end to the lull in violence between the two countries. Renewed fighting in the region could
disrupt oil flows, throttle supply, and drive worldwide prices up. However, some traders are
skeptical that another flaring of violence in the region could affect supply and prices.
U.S. natural gas ended a notch higher on Friday to extend its rally to a ninth day, and traders
expected more gains in the coming week if heating demand rises in accordance with forecasts
for harshly cold weather. Indications that a polar vortex could freeze the U.S. Midwest by next
week gave market bulls the longest winning streak in natural gas in eight years. Over the next
two weeks, U.S. weather models show lower-than-normal temperatures, with 354 heating
degree days, up from the 320 forecast on Thursday. Normal HDDs for this time of year are 261,
according to Thomson Reuters Analytics.

✍ NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
JEERA
Higher arrivals continued to pres-surize the rates for Jeera even as export demand improved in
mandis. Satisfactory crop sowing progress affected the sentiments adversely even further. The
coming week trend is likely to remain volatile as improved export demand queries amidst
higher arrivals could keep prices volatile. The sowing progress in coming weeks would be
important and determine the near term trend for the commodity. An expected pick up in sowing
area could prevent too strong recovery for the commodity. Rains seen few weeks back in
Gujarat and Rajasthan have improved moisture content of the soil and this can have a beneficial
impact on the sowing of new crop that has started. Weather in grow-ing areas thus remain
critical in the near term.
Effect of Dollar vs Re would be important in medium term when exports pick up. But till that
hap-pens some more dips not ruled out
Good quality arrivals have ensured Jeera rates are fetching premium w.r.t. International
markets. Low stocks in global trade and political unrest in Turkey and Syria have pushed export
demand to India. India will remain the primary export-er for this commodity as of now.
Jeera production in India is ex-pected to rise to 6.5-7 million bags of 55 kg each in 2014, from
4.5-5 million bags a year earlier, due to an expanded area under cultivation and favourable
weather conditions.
As per Spices Board of India statis-tics, India exported 96,500 tonne of cumin seed or Jeera
during April-December 2013, up from 50,944 tonne exported in similar period, previous year
SOYABEAN / REFI. SOYA
Ref Soy Oil bounced back moderately after the recent fall in rates as slight firmness in
International markets pulled prices up. Markets are likely to trade with high volatility as
demand remains firm in mandis.
Reports on apprehensions of India considering raising import taxes on crude and refined
vegetable oils to protect local farmers and the refining industry kept trend firm in Indian
markets
In order to improve realizations for farmers and to bring in transparency in soybean selling, the

Madhya Pradesh government has introduced sample-based auction for the commodity. The
pilot project will be implemented at Ujjain, one of the biggest mandis (wholesale agricul-tural
markets) in Madhya Pradesh, and once the new system is found to be successful, it will be
extended to 10 other mandis.
The sample-based auction will not only save post-harvest losses, but also encourage farmers to
produce fair average quality commodities that ensure better return on their yield. Madhya
Pradesh has been the biggest producer of soybean.
Current stock of edible oils as on 1st Oct., 2014 at various ports is esti-mated at 715,000 tons
(CPO 350,000 tons, RBD Palmolein 85,000 tons, Degummed Soybean Oil 150,000 tons, Crude
Sunflower Oil 120,000 tons and 10,000 tons of Rapeseed (Canola) Oil and about 1,000,000
tons in pipelines. Total stock, both at ports and in pipelines decreased to 1,715,000 tons from
1,820,000 tons in previous months. (SEA Of India)
Brazil, the world’s the biggest soy-bean exporter, may see “crucial rainfall” this week in central
and southeastern areas that have experienced dryness, which will encourage farmers to
accelerate planting, QT Weather said in a report yesterday. The country’s output may climb to a
record 94 million metric tons in 2014-2015, the USDA predicts. Planting started this month and
will run until December.
Weakness in International markets amid slowing down of demand in domestic market kept
trend weak for Soybean as markets fell after the recent rise in prices Arrivals of better quality
crop amid improved demand in mandis are likely to keep overall sentiments moderately firm.
Lower production expectations and stockists demand are also expected to support prices.
However with International markets showing some corrections over last 2 days, some more
corrections in rates are not ruled out in the short term.
RM SEED
Weakness in other Oil complex had a bearish impact on RMSeed prices as demand got
adversely affected in the mandis at these higher levels. Improved sowing report from Rajasthan
kept uptrend limited. An expected rise in sowing area for new crop is preventing any strong rise
in rates. Farmers are interested in sowing of RMseed as they are reportedly getting higher price
Indian farmers have been sown 18.64 lakh hectares of mustard seed (2014-15 crop year) as on
30 Oct. 2014, which was 4.56 lakh ha. higher compared to the last year same period. State wise
details - in Rajasthan has been sown in 9.07 (11.88) lakh hectares, in MP sowing reached at
3.80 (0.00) lakh hectares and in UP sowing reached to 4.91 (0.00) lakh hectares. As per first

Advance Estimates for 2014-15 released by Department of Agriculture & Cooperation, total
production of kharif Oilseeds is expected to decline to 19.66 million tons, down 2.75 million
tons from 2013-14 Kharif season. As per Solvent Extractors’ Associa-tion of India (SEA) data
bank, the imports of Rape oil are steadily on the rise and have significantly increased by more
than 11 times from 7,943 MT to 103,003 MT. Though oilmeal exports dipped for the third
consecutive month due to rise in soybean prices, but the rapeseed meal has increased 53 per
cent to 408,410 tonnes from 267,461 tonnes in last four months
CHANA
Profit booking at higher levels brought some dips to the rising rates for Chana. Rates had shot
up a lot last few days. But high demand from stockists amid falling stocks, a rise in MSP,
reports of Govt purchase amid low arrivals in mandis all these factors are likely to support the
prices. Raising the MSP from Rs 3100/Q to Rs 3175/Q added support to the prices. Rise in
demand from millers and Govt agencies kept trend firm. Fall in Canada crop production is also
affecting the prices as imports turn costlier. Continuous fall in rates over last few months has
reportedly adversely affected the sowing. Expectations of improved crop sowing in states of
MP, UP and Rajasthan could prevent strong uptrend even as prices are consid-ered to be on the
lower side. How-ever lower sowing reports are keeping prices up as of now The domestic
demand has risen in the mandis and breaking the psychological resistance levels of 3000 could
enable prices to recover further in coming weeks.
Apart from these factors, repeated efforts by the Govt to keep tab on hoarders—mainly for
essential Food items are also keeping the uptrend limited.
As per latest reports of sowing of Rabi Pulses crops as on 24th October, it is reported that
pulses has been sown in 3.31 lakh ha vs 3.78 lakh ha same time last year. As per 1st Advanced
crop estimates for 2014-15 by Govt of India, India is likely to produce Kharif Foodgrains of
120.27 million tonnes, which is down by 8.97 million tonnes from the record 129.24 million
tonnes achieved in Kharif 2013-14. Decline in area under Tur and Moong has also affected
production of Kharif Pulses which is estimated at 5.20 million tonnes as against their
production of 6.02 million tonnes during Kharif 2013-14. Tur production estimated at 2.74
million tonnes and Urad at 1.15 million tonnes

This Document has been prepared by Ways2Capital (A Division of High Brow Market
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Commodity report Ways2Capital 12 nov 2014

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Commodity report Ways2Capital 12 nov 2014