Commodity report by ways2capital 01 dec 2014

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✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS
DALLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
SYOREFIDR 19-12-2014 581 579 577 575 573 571 569 567 565
SYBEANIDR 19-12-2014 3340 3320 3300 3280 3260 3240 3220 3200 3180
RMSEED 19-12-2014 3990 3970 3950 3930 3910 3890 3870 3850 3830
JEERAUNJHA 19-12-2014 12650 12500 12400 12300 12200 12100 12000 11900 11800
DHANIYA 19-12-2014 13700 13600 13500 13400 13200 13000 12900 12800 12700
CASTORSEED 19-12-2014 4500 4480 4460 4440 4420 4000 3980 3960 3940
✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
SYOREFIDR 19-12-2014 592 588 584 579 575 571 568 564 560
SYBEANIDR 19-12-2014 3390 3350 3310 3280 3240 3200 3160 3120 3080
RMSEED 19-12-2014 4060 4030 4000 3980 3940 3900 3870 3840 3810
JEERAUNJHA 19-12-2014 13000 12800 12700 12500 12300 12100 11900 11700 11500
DHANIYA 19-12-2014 14300 14100 13900 13700 13500 13200 13000 12800 12600
CASTORSEED 19-12-2014 5050 5020 4990 4960 4930 4900 4870 4840 4810
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✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS
DALLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
ALUMINIUM 28-11-2014 128 127 126 125 124 123 122 121 120
COPPER 28-11-2014 408 406 404 402 400 398 396 394 392
CRUDE OIL 19-11-2014 4170 4150 4130 4110 4090 4070 4050 4030 4020
GOLD 05-12-2014 26000 25900 25800 25700 25600 25500 25400 25300 25100
LEAD 28-11-2014 130 129 128 127 126 125 124 123 122
NATURAL GAS 24-11-2014 260 258 256 254 252 250 248 246 244
NICKEL 28-11-2014 1050 1030 1010 990 970 950 930 910 890
✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
ALUMINIUM 28-11-2014 134 132 130 128 126 124 122 120 118
COPPER 28-11-2014 416 413 410 407 404 400 397 394 391
CRUDE OIL 19-11-2014 4260 4220 4180 4140 4100 4060 4020 3980 3940
GOLD 05-12-2014 26500 26200 25900 25700 25500 25200 25000 24800 24600
LEAD 28-11-2014 133 131 129 127 125 123 121 119 117
NATURAL GAS 24-11-2014 265 262 258 255 251 248 244 240 236
NICKEL 28-11-2014 1110 1080 1040 1010 970 940 900 860 820
SILVER 05-12-2014 33600 33300 33000 32700 32300 32000 31700 31400 31100
ZINC 28-11-2014 145 142 139 136 133 130 127 123 120

✍ MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi told reporters on Thursday that OPEC will not cut its oil
output. "That is right," Naimi told reporters in response to a question on whether OPEC had
decided not to cut oil supplies. He was speaking after a five hour meeting of the producer group
broke up.
Germany's Statistics Office on Thursday showed inflation harmonious to compare with other
European countries dropped to 0.5 percent from 0.7 percent in October.
(Source: Reuters)
PRECIOUS METALS
Gold eased on Thursday, hurt by a sharp drop in oil prices, strength in the dollar and fresh
outflows from bullion-backed funds, with traders cautious ahead of this weekend's Swiss
referendum on central bank bullion assets.
News that oil cartel OPEC had opted not to cut output in the face of falling prices knocked
benchmark Brent crude oil futures more than 4 percent to their lowest in four years.
Swiss voters go to the polls on Sunday to decide a motion that would oblige the Swiss National
Bank to hold 20 percent of its reserves in bullion, repatriate gold from overseas, and undertake
to make no gold sales.
If a 'yes' vote is passed, the Swiss central bank would have to buy about 1,500 tonnes of gold
over the next few years, analysts say.
Investment interest in gold has suffered this year from expectations that the Federal Reserve
will tighten policy before other central banks.
Higher U.S. interest rates would lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, and
would also benefit the dollar, in which the metal is priced Silver was down 1 percent at $16.30
an ounce.
Annual inflation in Europe's largest economy fell to its lowest level in nearly five years in
November, suggesting the risk of deflation in the wider euro zone has not yet abated.
Preliminary figures from Germany's Statistics Office on Thursday showed inflation harmonized
to compare with other European countries dropped to 0.5 percent from 0.7 percent in October,

undershooting a consensus forecast of 0.6 percent. On the month, the cost of living was
unchanged using this measure.
BASE METAL
Copper prices slipped on Thursday, weighed down by a strong dollar, although further falls
were capped by support from monetary easing in top consumer China and an upturn in
economic sentiment in Europe while a strong dollar capped gains.
Putting pressure on prices, the dollar rose against a basket of currencies, making commodities
priced in the U.S. unit more expensive for holders of other currencies.
China's central bank refrained from draining funds from the money market on Thursday, the
first time it had held off from open market operations in four months.
Also supporting the market was data showing morale in the euro zone rose for the second
straight month in November and Germany's jobless rate hit a record low, offering tentative
signs the bloc is avoiding outright stagnation.
ENERGY
Brent crude oil plunged as much as $6.50 a barrel on Thursday, and U.S. crude fell by nearly as
much, posting the steepest one-day falls since 2011, after OPEC decided against cutting output
despite a huge oversupply in world markets.
Asked whether the oil producer group had decided not to reduce production, Saudi Arabian Oil
Minister Ali al-Naimi told reporters: "That is right."
Oil prices have fallen by more than a third since June as increasing production in North
America from shale oil has overwhelmed demand at a time of sluggish global economic
growth.
Ministers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries had been discussing at
their meeting in Vienna whether to agree a production cut in an attempt to re balance the global
oil market.
Crude prices have been falling all week as traders and analysts scaled back expectations of an
OPEC production cut, but the sharp dive after Thursday's meeting showed the decision was not
fully priced in.

U.S. natural gas prices plunged sharply in holiday-thinned trade on Thursday, as updated
weather forecasting models for the first week of December pointed to a return to mild weather,
prompting investors to bet that utilities and homes will burn less natural gas as demand for
heating falls.
Forecasts for milder temperatures to settle in across much of the U.S. in early December after a
blast of cold air exits weighed heavily on prices.
Bearish speculators are betting on the mild weather to dampen demand for the heating fuel. The
heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for U.S. gas
consumption
LME INVENTORIES
LME Inventories Copper Lead Zinc Aluminium Nickel
Current Stock 161950 217900 669075 4332400 401850
Change -175 -25 2725 -10025 1854
% Change -0.11% -0.01% 0.41% -0.23% 0.46%
NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
JEERA
Jeera found some moderate sup-port at near the 12000 levels for Dec contract even as lack of
strong trading activities kept short term market sentiments slight weak. Some more dips in the
short term not ruled out. Falling stocks and higher temperatures in growing areas and improved

Export demand (aided by a firm Dollar vs Re) supported prices. A cool temperature would be
need-ed for next few weeks for the crop to grow satisfactorily. The tempera-tures are a bit on
the higher side as of now in Gujarat — as per market sources. This is creating apprehen-sions
of likelihood fall in productivity
The sowing progress in coming weeks would be important and determine the near term trend
for the commodity. An expected pick up in sowing area could prevent too strong recovery for
the commodity.
Rains earlier this year in Gujarat and Rajasthan have improved moisture content of the soil and
this can have a beneficial impact on the sowing of new crop that has started. However a cool
climate would be needed for better crop productivity. Effect of Dollar vs Re would be
important in medium term when exports pick up. But till that hap-pens some more dips not
ruled out .Good quality produce have ensured Jeera rates are fetching premium w.r.t.
International markets. Low stocks in global trade and political unrest in Turkey and Syria have
pushed export demand to India. India will remain the primary export-er for this commodity as
of now. Jeera production in India is ex-pected to rise to 6.5-7 million bags of 55 kg each in
2014, from 4.5-5 million bags a year earlier, due to an expanded area under cultivation and
favourable weather conditions.
CHANA
Chana traded with very high volatili-ty as the initial fall in rates was followed by short covering
by end of the day. With prices having fallen a lot over last 2-3 days, demand picked up in the
mandis. However weakness in the International markets kept pressure in the Indian market
sentiments also—preventing any strong recovery. Bearish news in International mar-kets
affected the market sentiments adversely. As per USDA, expected pulses production in USA is
up by 8% to 2,232,630 metric tonne during 2014 from last year. On the other hand, reports
from Canada indicate chickpea production there expected to fall to 0.14 million MT in 2014-15
—down from 0.18 million MT in 2013-14due to lower yield.
In Indian markets, reports of lower sowing due to prevailing low rates, good demand from
millers and Govt agencies and a rise in MSP from Rs 3100/Q to Rs 3175/Q had supported
prices. Pulses sowing falls 5.5% in Raja-sthan. As per Govt figures, Chana was sown in 11.23
ha till 17 Nov in the state, while last year’s figure till 13 Nov was 11.93 lakh ha. Though total

pulses farming till 17 Novem-ber has covered near 65% of its acreage, but it is around 5.5%
less than previous year’s data
As per Ministry of Agriculture, rabi pulses 2014-15 coverage till Nov 21 is down by 11% to
80.74 lakh Ha as compared with last year’s area coverage of 91.19 lakh hectare during the
corresponding week. The area planted under chana is also down to 54.61 Lakh Ha. against
64.76 lakh ha. in same correspond-ing week during last year. As per 1st Advanced crop
estimates for 2014-15 by Govt of India, India is likely to produce Kharif Foodgrains of 120.27
million tonnes, which is down by 8.97 million tonnes from the record 129.24 million tonnes
achieved in Kharif 2013-14. Decline in area under Tur and Moong has also affected production
of Kharif Pulses which is estimated at 5.20 million tonnes as against their production of 6.02
million tonnes during Kharif 2013-14. Tur production estimated at 2.74 million tonnes and
Urad at 1.15 million tonnes.
SOYABEAN
Higher production reports in the International markets kept trend slight weak for Soybean even
as good demand in the Indian market limited the fall.
Improved International production forecasts had been keeping senti-ments weak there. Traders
expect downtrend to be limited however as domestic demand is expected to improve in coming
weeks for the good quality produce. Soybeans rebounded from the lowest price in more than a
week after a government report showed increasing demand for supplies from the U.S., the
world’s top grower.
Soybeans inspected for export jumped 25% to a record 3.113 million metric tons for week
ended Nov 13, with more than 78% headed to China, the biggest consumer, as per USDA.
Demand from domestic processors in October topped analyst estimates. U.S. farmers are
finalizing a record soybean harvest, with production seen rising to 107.7 million tons from 91.4
million tons, as per USDA. Soybean production is forecast at 3,958 million bushels, up 31
million on higher yields. The soybean yield is projected at a record 47.5 bushels per acre, up
0.4 bushels mainly on gains for Iowa and South Dakota. Soybean supplies for 2014/15 are
projected 1 percent above the October forecast. U.S. soybean exports for 2014/15 are raised 20
million bushels to 1,720 million reflecting the record pace of export sales through late October.
Soybean crush is raised 10 million bushels to 1,780 million mostly due to increased soybean
meal exports.

REFI. SOYA
Ref Soy Oil traded with high volatili-ty as overall market sentiments remained slight positive
but prices continued to find strong psychologi-cal Resistance at the 600 level. India imported
11.62 million tonnes of edible oil during Sep-Oct 2013/14 compared to 10.68 million tonnes
during the same period previous season, stated the Solvent Extrac-tors' Association (SEA).
India’s 2013/14 soyoil imports stood at 1.95 Mn T against 1.09 Mn T in 2012/14 season. Palm
oil purchases were slightly lower at 7.29 Mn T against 8.29 Mn T last season. Sunflower oil
imports were recorded at 1.51 Mn T against 0.97 Mn T in 2012/13.
Reports on apprehensions of India considering raising import taxes on crude and refined
vegetable oils to protect local farmers and the refin-ing industry kept trend firm in Indian
markets In order to improve realizations for farmers and to bring in transparency in soybean
selling, the MP govern-ment has introduced sample-based auction for the commodity. The pilot
project will be implemented at Ujjain, one of the biggest mandis (wholesale agricultural
markets) in Madhya Pradesh, and once the new system is found to be successful, it will be
extended to 10 other mandis. The sample-based auction will not only save post-harvest losses,
but also encourage farmers to produce fair average quality commodities that ensure better
return on their yield. Madhya Pradesh has been the biggest producer of soybean. World
production of eight vegetable oils is expected to climb to 168.4 million tons from 165.1 million
tons, Oil World said. Ending stocks are forecast to drop to 22 million tons at the end of
September 2015 from 22.6 million tons a year earlier. Output of eight oilseed meals may jump
to 294 million tons from 283.8 million tons, with ending stocks seen rising to 9.6 million tons
from 9 million tons.
RM SEED
A fall in other Oil complex kept trend weak for RMSeed as more corrections were noted after
the recent strong recovery in rates. Traders however anticipate further fall may be limited in the
coming weeks as demand expected to rise.
European Union rapeseed output rose to 22.5 million tons this year from 20.9 million tons,data
from the 28-nation bloc show. Gains for EU are partly offset by a reduction for Australia where
dry conditions in the southeast have reduced yield prospects. Global sunflowerseed production
is reduced 0.4 million tons to 39.8 million on lower forecasts for Russia and Kazakhstan
As per Ministry of Agriculture, Rajasthan area coverage in Rabi season 2014-15 till 17th Nov

was 24.24 lakh ha vs 25.16 lakh ha in 2013-14. The government has set a target of 29 lakh for
this year. The fall in area was due to high temper-ature in Oct and lack of rains. Farmer are
reportedly shifting to Barley and Wheat. Crops also faced germination problem due to the high
Temperature.
Haryana area coverage in Rabi 2014-15 till 30thOct was reportedly nil while it was 2 lakh ha in
2013-14 during this time. The reason is again the high temperature during Oct. MP area
coverage in Rabi 2014-15 till 30th Oct. was 3.80 lakh ha while it was nil in 2013-14. Due to
good rains in Oct and fields being unused, early sowing was possible there. UP area coverage in
Rabi 2014-15 till 30th Oct was 4.91 lakh ha while it was nil in 2013-14 during this period. As
fields this year were unused in kharif season, so farmers had sown Mustard early in UP.

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Commodity report by ways2capital 01 dec 2014

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Commodity report by ways2capital 01 dec 2014