Daily Panorama on Turkish and Global Finance Markets

1
VEYSEL KAYA/SUNSEEDMAN, www.sunseedman.com, veyselkaya@sunseedman.com
THE EXPERT SUPPORT ON REPORTING, ANALYSES, CONSULTING AND BROKERAGE AS PER 20-YEAR SECTOR EXPERIENCE
DAILY PANORAMA
02 MARCH 2018
PAGE 2 – TURKISH FINANCE MARKETS
PAGE 3 – GLOBAL FINANCE MARKETS
PAGE 4 – SUNSEED LOCAL MARKETS
PAGE 5 – SUNSEED GLOBAL MARKETS
PAGE 6 – SUNOIL/SUNMEAL LOCAL MARKETS
PAGE 7 – SUNOIL FOREIGN MARKETS
PAGE 8 – SOY COMPLEX MARKETS
PAGE 9 – RAPE/CANOLA COMPLEX MARKETS & ALTERNATIVE VEGOILS
PAGE 10 – PALM OIL MARKETS
PAGE 11 – WEATHER REPORT
PAGE 12 – OTHER NEWS
DAILY QUOTE: Ideas are the beginning points of all fortunes... Napoleon HILL

2
 In addition to MOSTLY CLOUDY abroad by daytime, political/geopolitical risks
and stronger USD/TL parity were active. In this connection;
 Borsa İstanbul/BIST, was SLUMPED as 1.11%  AND walked away from the
target of critical and psycho 120.000 level ( 117.632 ).
 2-year-Interest Rate was FLAT, BUT remained as double-digit ( 13.03%).
? ( The parity signed the record of 3.9825 by 22 Nov! YESTERDAY,
partly volatile! ).
a) YESTERDAY:
 By following 3.8007 – 3.8206 range, it made a closure around 3.81 level. USD/TL parity made a start
to YESTERDAY around 3.8025 in Asian hours and totally stayed over the critical 3.80 level by closing
the day with DAILY GAIN of 0.27%.
b) FUNDEMENTALS/NEWS
- TRUMP, 45th President of USA, already surpassed 1 year officially, still confuses the markets… Fire And Fury
Book and LYNN Case are really confusing… Some conspiracy theoricians even claim that TRUMP may
resign soon! Terror angst/wrong emergency alarms in recent days/weeks/months! Nevertheless, the new
tax reform was finally in effect, and NAFTA and Mexican Wall are also at the agenda soon! As awaited,
Fed remained the interest rate unchanged ( 1.25/1.5% now ). 3 even 4 hikes are also projected for 2018
( The first is probably by 20-21 Mar ). The balance-sheet unwinding has been initiated ( 10 Mlrd USD per
month ). Budget crisis was temporary solved by reopening of Federal Government. POWEL is the Fed
President from now on and he was rather hawkish at the Congress by underlying that US economy is
underway and gradual hikes in the interest rates are due soon… US monthly Inflation figures were so
promising by supporting Fed’s policies. Last Fed minutes were also mostly hawkish.
- Geopolitical developments in Middle East ( Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Israel/Jerusalem, Iran esp. ) and Far
East as well US sanctions on Russia ( and others such China etc possible ) are also quite confusing!
US/North-Korea conflict is really quite crucial!
- In EU, EUR/USD still remains below 1.25 with recovered USD. And, still NO COALITION in Germany, but
reportedly MERKEL & SDP have agreed in principle. Nevertheless, it needs also the approval of SDP voters
over 463.000 till today )! Catalans also announced their one-sided liberilization. ECB has lessened the
monthly stimulus to 30 Mlrd EUR vs 60 within 2018. BREXIT is going to be accomplished by 29 Mar 2019.
- Locally, albeit USD/TL tested the weakest level since Nov 2016 by 11 Sep due to Hot Money entries,
tightening politicies of Turkish Central Bank, still higher interest rate ( 12.95% lastly ) and mostly favorable
economical figures ( Q3 Growth Rate of 11.1% ) ; the parity was at record by 22 Nov with especially
geopolitical risks ( North Iraq tension, military action to Syria by Turkish army, Operation Olive Branch,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Olive_Branch ) and Fed support. Turkish Central Bank remained
the upper window of the interest rate unchanged ( 12.75% still ) lastly. Jobless Rate eased to 10.3% level.
FITCH remained Turkey Outlook as INVESTABLE, STEADY and BB+. Inflation Rate has also eased 10.35% by
giving signal to one-digit-level again. Ah before we forget, Turkish Current Account Deficit hiked to 47
Mlrd USD annually. S&P remained Turkey Outlook as NON-INVESTABLE, NEGATIVE and BB.
c) TODAY:
 It moves at 3.805 – 3.815 range being partly below of record 3.9825 of 22 Nov 2017.
d) PROJECTION:
 The Big Picture is BULLISH as long as the parity remains over critical and psycho 3.5 even over 3.80
level. Let’s see whether the parity will be settled over 3.80. Let’s also follow Afrin Operation and other
local/global developments. Let’s also watch US – Turkey relationships soon…
TURKISH FINANCE MARKETS

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 By YESTERDAY, as the first business day of the new-month, the bourses were MOSTLY
DEPRECIATED.
 EU bourses ( DAX, 1.97%  ), were TUMBLED with stronger EUR/USD parity
and weaker BRENT Crude before closure and 1.56% DOWN in Japanese NIKKEI
Bourse, confusing Chinese Bond Buying Policy, TRUMP uncertainty, no German
Coalition Government yet ( but reportedly agreed in the principle by MERKEL & SDP
), Catalan Liberilization, US/North-Korea/Iran tension, stimulus winding down by ECB
( 30 Mlrd EUR/month vs 60 ), banking crisis in EU members, BREXIT/UK angst, terror
fears and global political/geopolitical ALBEIT 0.44% UP in Chinese SHANGHAI
Bourse.
 US bourses ( DOW, 1.68%  ), were also PLUMMETED with lower NYMEX
Crude before closure, hawkish POWELL of Fed, mixed European/Asian Bourses and
Chinese Bond Buying Policy, terror risks and Trump questionmark IN SPITE OF
weaker Dollar.
 EUR/USD parity moved at 1.2155 – 1.2275 range by YESTERDAY and now
moves around 1.2270 level ( ALMOST FLATTISH vs YESTERDAY ). By YDAY, the parity
discounted globally WEAKER Dollar and marched towards the critical and psycho
1.25 level.
 Crude was once LOSER ( 0.50 – 0.75 %  ) with the depreciation in
stock markets.
- ALBEIT weaker Dollar, lower weekly Crude stockpiles, North Iraqi
tension, Saudi Arabian tension, geopolitical risks in
Iran/Syria/Korea/Qatar/Turkey and daily output cut deal and
extension till the end of 2018 ( even longer ) ; increased US Weekly
Drilling Rigs No, recovery in North Sea and Libyan pipelines, Iranian Nuke Deal approval of
USA, global abundancy and sluggish demands, more US/global output forecasts and
doubts on applicability/sustainability resulted in some FURTHER losses.
- In this connection, Brent moved at 63.20 – 65.02 $/Barrel ( now, 63.68 ), and NYMEX also
moved at 60.20 – 61.84 $/Barrel range ( now, 60.74 ).
- Today, further TAD DOWN prices exist in Asian hours.
- Brent still remains over 65 $/Barrel.
- Please pay more attention for the applicability/sustainability of the relevant deal of
OPEC/Non-OPEC members and geopolitical risks! Let’s also follow Nuke Deal
developments/Saudis Outlook/Middle East Tension/Iranian Demonstrations!
GLOBAL FINANCE MARKETS

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LOCAL SUNSEED PRICES: ?? ( The USD/TL parity, legislation, and local Sunoil/Sunmeal as well
as CIF prices will draw the direction! )
a) YESTERDAY:
 Still 1.825 +/- 25 TL/mt of 40-basis of Sunseed prices for 40 - 45 kmt max of stocks to be sold
till 2 Apr 2018, deadline for Governmental support ( 400 TL/mt of bonus for farmers ).
b) IMPORT COST:
- 395 $/mt CIF Marmara bid is around 1.895 TL/mt for 40 basis ( CIF Mersin, 1.945 ),
- 405 $/mt CIF Marmara ask is around 1.930 TL/mt for 40 basis ( CIF Mersin, 1.980 ),
- 410 $/mt CIF Marmara ask is around 1.945 TL/mt for 40 basis ( CIF Mersin, 1.995 ),
- With last Reference Price hike and volatile USD/TL, the buyers are really confused!
c) TURKISH ACREAGE/CROP SIZE/IMPORTS:
 Earlier region of Cukurova Sunflower plantings already initiated in small parties ( albeit recent wet
conditions, partly drier and hotter ones soon to resume the fieldworks ) and we also launched our
tentative figures for 2018/2019 season. So;
- Cukurova, 60 – 65 Kha ( 2017/18, 70 & 2016/17, 60 & 2015/16, 45 & 2014/15, 55 ), 140 - 165 Kmt (
2017/18, 175 & 2016/17, 150 & 2015/16, 100 & 2014/15, 105 ),
- Thrace, 320 - 335 Kha ( 2017/18, 365 & 2016/17, 325 & 2015/16, 360 & 2014/15, 310 ), 650 - 700 Kmt
( 2017/18, 765 & 2016/17, 650 & 2015/16, 700 & 2014/15, 700 ),
- Central Anatolia, 90 - 95 Kha ( 2017/18, 110 & 2016/17, 90 & 2015/16, 65 & 2014/15, 70 ), 300 - 350
Kmt ( 2017/18, 365 & 2016/17, 275 & 2015/16, 200 & 2014/15, 225 ),
- Black Sea, 75 - 80 Kha ( 2017/18, 80 & 2016/17, 70 & 2015/16, 55 & 2014/15, 50 ), 200 - 225 Kmt (
2017/18, 220 & 2016/17, 190 & 2015/16, 125 & 2014/15, 100 ),
- South Marmara, 25 - 30 Kha ( 2017/18, 30 & 2016/17, 25 & 2015/16, 30 & 2014/15, 27 ), 60 – 65 Kmt
( 2017/18, 65 & 2016/17, 55 & 2015/16, 60 & 2014/15, 55 ),
- Others, 15 - 20 Kha ( 2017/18, 20 & 2016/17, 15 & 2015/16, 15 & 2014/15, 8 ), 30 - 40 Kmt ( 2017/18,
35 & 2016/17, 30 & 2015/16, 35 & 2014/15, 15 ).
Totting up, with 585 - 625 Kha of acreage ( 2017/18, 675 & 2016/17, 585 & 2015/16, 570 & 2014/15,
520 ve 13/14, rekor 690 ), 1.380 – 1.545 Kmt ( 2017/18, 1.625 & 2016/17, 1.350 & 2015/16, 1.220 &
2014/15, 1.200 & 2013/14, rekor 1.500 ) of Sunseed new-crop size is likely.
 Officially, by Jul16/Jun17, 544.0 kmt ( 29.5 kmt of ARG, 210 kmt of RU, 172 kmt of MD, 74.5 kmt of BG,
29.5 kmt of RO, 28.0 kmt of UA as well as 0.5 kmt of Bosnia ) of Sunseed and 24.0 kmt ( 22.5 of BG and
1.5 of Bosnia ) of SunFlour imports were performed.
 Officially, by Jul17/Jan18, 224.5 kmt ( 36.5 kmt of RU, 118.5 kmt of Moldova, 34.5 kmt of Bulgaria, 27.0
kmt of Romania, 5.0 kmt of Ukraine and 3.0 kmt of Bosnia ) of Sunseed and 1.5 kmt ( 1 of UA and 0.5
of Bosnia ) of SunFlour imports were performed. But, we suppose 335 kmt around of imports so far in
17/18 season excluding 12 MD vessels ( 55 kmt total around ) to be transhipped.
d) PRICE PROJECTION:
 With current Outlook following last Reference Price hike, 1.850 +/– 25 TL/mt range of 40 basis
is quite likely! However, let’s also pay close attention to volatile USD/TL parity, Legislation (
Reference Price etc ) and CIF imported Sunseed prices!
SUNSEED LOCAL MARKETS

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GLOBAL SUNSEED PRICES: ? ( Less global new-crop size prospects and partly solid
Soybean/Rapeseed! Confusing Turkish Legislation! ).
a) YESTERDAY:
 In Constanza/Varna, refer to Apr18 FOB, the prices were also at 375- 380 $/mt vs 385 - 390
$/mt.
 Refer to CIF Marmara, Mar18 seller prices are now as 405 - 410 $/mt asks vs 390 – 395 of bids
( volatile USD/TL and hiked Turkish Reference Price ).
b) PLANTINGS/HARVESTINGS/NEW-CROP SIZES:
 2016/17 season global Sunseed crop size was around 50.0 Mln T, implying 7.0 Mln T more (
16.0  ) vs 43.0 of 15/16.
 Refer for 2017/18 new-crop; we currently forecast around 47.5 Mln T of Sunseed global new-
crop size.
 Harvestings in Black Sea, still 7-8% unharvested in Russia ( around 500 kha and 500 – 600 kmt
to be harvested ).
 In addition, mostly disappointing yields ( especially in Ukraine, the leader global Sunseed
producer ).
 Argentinian Sunseed plantings are TOTALLY OVER! But some wetter/drier fields during
plantings resulted in less-than-projected acreages.
 Meanwhile, the harvestings are virtually over at earlier northern regions of Chaco and Santa
Fe and moving to the south with national pace of around 40%.
c) PRICE PROJECTION/OTHER NEWS:
 Soybean/Rapeseed/Sunoil prices and farmer sales/crushers as well as traders’ purchasing
interests in Black Sea basin will draw the direction in FOB/CIF prices.
 Sunseed Outlook is neutral to slightly higher.
 In Argentina, the biggest Sunflower producer of southern hemisphere, If weather permits
from now, but MOSTLY UNFAVORABLE in recent days, with slightly higher acreage ( 1.8 vs
1.75 of 16/17 ), the new-crop size may be around 3.5 – 3.6 Mln T ( vs 3.45 of 16/17 ). Indeed,
we do not rule out also below 3.5 if further unfavorable weather condition are kept.
SUNSEED FOREIGN MARKETS
SUNOIL/SUNMEAL LOCAL MARKETS

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LOCAL CRUDE SUNOIL/SUNMEAL PRICES: ?? ( USD/TL parity, legislation, re-exports, Refined
Shelf and Sunoil CIF prices will draw the direction )
a) YESTERDAY:
- Albeit still no significant demand hike since new year,
- New-crop crushings actively still,
- Recovered Sunmeal prices recently ( less loadings on Sunoil shoulders ),
- Cash deficit, but also limited buyers ;
- Rebounded USD/TL parity ( already jumped over 3.80 again ),
- Reference Prices for other alternative oilseeds ( ie less imports and crushings of alternative
oilseeds, so more local Sunoil demands accordingly! ),
- PL prices of 24.95 TL/5 L PET ( ie 4.000 – 4.050 of Crude Sunoil ) and
- Reference Price hike for Sunseed ( 450 vs 400 ) and stronger Sunseed CIF Marmara prices ;
May create STEADY to SLIGHTLY HIGHER outlook on local Sunoil prices. Now, we hear prices
at 3.950 +/- 25 TL/mt EXW, but the below is possible for firm buyers and cash-deficit sellers.
b) IMPORT COSTS:
- The cost from the imported Sunseed of 395 $/mt CIF is 4.050 TL/mt min.
- And the direct import cost of 765 $/mt CIF Marmara/Izmir is also around 4.325 TL/mt, but this
is CPT Refiner ( including 60 - 80 TL/mt of logistics vs local EXW levels ) and better quality!
Nevertheless, Sunoil is not troublesome at all!
c) TURKISH EXPORT/IMPORTS:
 Officially, by Jul16/Jun17, 789.5 kmt of Sunoil imports ( 473.5 kmt of Russian origin ) and 651.5
kmt of Sunoil exports ( 388.5 kmt to Iraq ) were performed. As per our calculations, in the old
season, around 885 kmt of Sunoil imports/arrivals and 650 kmt of Sunoil exports were
performed.
 Officially, Jul17/Jan18, 267.5 kmt of Sunoil imports ( 203.0 kmt of Russian origin ) and 215.0
kmt of Sunoil exports ( 52.5 kmt to Iraq & 68.5 kmt to Syria ) were performed. As per our
calculations, by Jul17/Mar18, around 315 kmt of Sunoil imports/arrivals and 245 – 250 kmt of
Sunoil exports were performed. Refer to North Iraq, the tension is quite critical!
d) PRICE PROJECTION:
 Indeed, purchasing policies of Refiners, local/foreign Sunseed/Sunmeal prices, USD/TL
parity and the detainments/arrestments/releasings/trustees ( after coup attempt ),
Reference Prices and Inward Processing Regime will be major market determinants.
e) SUNMEAL :
 26/28 P Sunmeal prices are moving around 710 - 720 TL/mt in Thrace. In addition to
rebounded USD/TL parity, solid Wheat Bran and other feedstuffies exist. Nevertheless, high-
pro Sunmeal prices, legislation, logistics, the resistance of Crushers as well as USD/TL parity
will be quite crucial!
SUNOIL FOREIGN MARKETS

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GLOBAL SUNOIL PRICES: ? ( Weaker Grivna and Ruble, less UA/RU new-crops and the lowest
Indian duty may be WINNER vs still ample supplies at port terminals, new-crop pressure and
already initiated ARG new-crop harvestings. ).
a) YESTERDAY:
 There was STEADY to SLIGHTLY LOWER mode in Black Sea Sunoil markets.
- In Ukraine, 745 - 750 $/mt vs 755 - 760 $/mt of Apr18 delivery was noticed. Still partly solid
USD/UAH parity ( 26.95 ), the lowest Indian import-duty and less crop size promote UA Sunoil
prices. However, still ample exportable supplies at port terminals and active crushings with
better Sunmeal prices are BEARISH!
- Russian FOB prices were 725 - 730 vs 735 - 745 $/mt for Apr18 as well! Still solid USD/RUB parity
( 56.61 ) partly promotes Russian Sunoil exports. Plus, abolishment of RU/TR bans are also
BULLISH! However, active crushings with better Sunmeal prices are BEARISH!
- ARG Apr18 FOB prices were at 725 - 730 $/mt vs 750 - 755 $/mt.
- Rotterdam Sunoil prices also comprised as 780 vs 790 $/mt for Apr/June18 and 805 vs 820
$/mt for July/Sep18.
- The Premium of Sunoil is MINUS vs Soyoil ( still weaker in Rotterdam, 790 - 840 ) vs Soyoil
- Also minus as CIF India, 805 - 810 vs 805 – 815 $/mt,
- But PLUS 75 $/mt vs RBD Palmoil.
b) CIF TURKEY OFFERS:
 With strict negotitation, cool RU Sunoil of Apr18 delivery was possible with AROUND 765 $/mt
CIF Marmara/Izmir.
 Cool RU Sunoil of Apr18 delivery offers were also at 770 – 775 $/mt ( possible 5/10 $/mt less
with the hard negotiation ) CIF Mersin ( UA, 785 - 795 $/mt ).
c) TODAY/FUTURE:
 Today, most probably ALMOST STEADY mode is likely by following Soyoil and Palmoil as well
as Crude movements .
 Solid/weaker other vegoils may create some support and/or additional weakness!
 Please pay attention for weather conditions of the new-crop, esp in RU/ARG!

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SOY COMPLEX MARKETS: ? ( Global abundancy, USDA has pegged record US crop size,
abundant ARG old-crop supplies still and Chinese demand angst may be LOSER vs
opportunistic funds, sluggish farmer sales, logistics/strike and global weather risks! ).
a) YESTERDAY:
 CBOT Soybeans were FURTHER GAINED. Appreciated 13 basis points ( 1.058 ie 389 $/mt ) in
Mar18 delivery, and also appreciated 13 basis points ( 1.068 ie 392 $/mt ) for May18. Soyoil
of May18 delivery was UP by 0.50%, AND Mar18 delivery Soymeal was also UP by 0.63%.
 Drier Argentinian weather conditions were active!
- US Soybean FOB premium, Apr18, CBOT plus 45 - 50 ( 17/19 ), 410 $/mt,
- ARG Soyoil FOB premium; Apr18, CBOT plus 125 - 150 ( 28/33 ), 745 - 750 $/mt,
- ARG Soymeal FOB premium, Apr18, CBOT minus 2/plus 3 ( -2/+3 ), 435 - 440 $/mt,
- UKR Soybean CIF Marmara; Apr18, 425 - 430 $/mt vs 440 - 445 $/mt.
 Locally, Crude Soyoil and Soymeal prices were also as 850 +/- 10 $/mt and 520 +/- 10 $/mt
EXW respectively.
 Officially, by Sep17/Jan18, 873.5 kmt ( mainly from Ukraine of 297.0 kmt ) of TR Soybean
imports were performed in 17/18 season. Jan/Dec 2017, 2.18 Mln T ( 683 kmt of UA ).
b) CURRENT BEARISH & BULLISH FUNDEMENTALS
BEARISH: Record US new-crop size, but lower-than-estimated export pace so far, almost
flattish Palmoil and weaker NYMEX Crude, slightly higher acreage and already underway
harvestings in BRAZIL ( around 34/35% nationally ) and totally over ARG plantings, abundant
ARG old-crop supplies, decreasing ARG export taxes by 2018 and 2019 ( 0.5% per month vs
already 28.5% for Mar18 ), Chinese demand risk, and global economical/political anxieties.
BULLISH: US biodiesel regime, anti-damping charges for biodiesel imports from Argie and
Indonesia by USA, lower-than-estimated 2018/19 acreage forecasts for USA, stronger Corn
and Wheat and weaker Dollar before closure, sluggish farmer sales, somehow record
Chinese Soy imports by Jan/Feb18, speculation of funds, weather risks globally, logistics,
strike and weather troubles ( La Nina ??? ) in South America.
c) HOW’S THE SITUATION BY TODAY, ANY REPORTS TO BE RELEASED AND PROSPECTS?
 Now, E-CBOT is mostly GREEN.
 NO REPORT is due by today, but USDA MONTHLY by 8 Mar, ie next Thursday.
 We suppose 1.050 +/- 25 range soon! But let’s watch weather conditions in USA/South
America, political ambiance in USA/BRA as well as Chinese demands and Dollar/Real!
SOY COMPLEX MARKETS

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RAPE/CANOLA COMPLEX MARKETS: ?? ( Weather risks, partly solid Soybean/Soyoil/Petrol
may be EQUALIZER vs BREXIT, ARG biodiesel approval, Canadian new-crop size upward
revision, and global economical risks. )
a) YESTERDAY OF MATIF/ROTTERDAM:
 MATIF Rapeseed was once SLUMPED at 357.50 €/mt (  3.0 ) as May18 delivery. AND
Rotterdam Rapeoil was also SLIGHTLY DOWN ( Apr18, 675 €/mt,  2 ).
 ALBEIT EU biodiesel-supported 2030 programme and global weather risks as well as almost
flattish Palm Oil and stronger Soybean and Soyoil before closure ; upward revision for
Canadian Canola new-crop size, EU duty-cut of Argie biodiesel ( less Rapeoil demand )
and more acreages in EU by Fall 2017 as well as weaker Petrol and stronger EUR/USD parity
before closure resulted in some losses.
b) TURKISH RAPE COMPLEX:
 We hear theo. prices of around 455 - 465 $/mt ( FOB Constanza, 425 - 430 $/mt theo. ) vs
almost nil of bids of CIF Marmara ( Not workable still albeit Reference Price cut! ). Officially,
by Jul16/Jun17, 112.5 kmt ( mainly from Romania of 84 kmt ) of Rapeseed imports were
performed. Only 18 kmt by Jul17/Mar18 so far officially and as per our line-ups!
 Locally, Crude Rapeoil ( not available so much ) is around 1.100 +/– 25 $/mt mostly.
Rapemeal ( also quite limited ) is also around 300 +/- 10 $/mt. Only 45 kmt ( vs 150 of 16/17
) of crop size was raised mainly in Thrace ( 35 vs 125 ). But, farmers considerably hiked the
acreage by Fall17 as per recent favorable weather conditions. If no detrimental weather
conditions occur, then 125 – 150 kmt at least of new-crop size is likely by July18.
c) ALTERNATIVES:
 Similar to Rapeseed, we do not also suppose the local Safflowerseed crushings may be so
active with so-called 230 - 235 $/mt CIF theo. prices albeit Reference Price cut! Current
local Safoil and Safmeal theo. prices are around 1.050 +/- 25 $/mt and 675 +/- 25 TL/mt
respectively. Officially, by Aug16/July17, 124.5 kmt ( all from RU ) of Safflowerseed imports
were performed. Reportedly, Russian new-crop size will be halved this season ( 140 vs 285
kmt ). So far, only 51.0 kmt of Safseed imports were done officially and as per our line-ups.
 Linseed CIF Marmara prices are so called around 390 – 400 $/mt. Meanwhile, local Crude
LinOil and LinMeal prices are also around 860 +/- 25 $/mt and 300 +/- 10 $/mt respectively.
Following Reference Price hike ( 1.200 $/mt ), 10% import-duty was imposed recently ( not
workable crushings from now on )! Officially, by Aug16/July17, 214.0 kmt ( of 209, RU ) of
Linseed and 9.5 kmt ( all Russian origin ) of Camelina imports were performed. Some Linseed
( but only 55.5 kmt by Aug/Mar ) imports were done so far officially and as per our line-ups.
 Local Neutralized Cotton Oil and Cotton Meal new-crop prices are also around 3.450 +/-
50 TL/mt and 875 +/- 25 TL/mt respectively!
RAPE/CANOLA COMPLEX MARKETS & ALTERNATIVE VEGOILS
PALM OIL MARKETS

10
PALM OIL MARKETS: ?? ( Partly solid Petrol and Soyoil, weather risks, seasonally lower output,
no export tax for 3 months, enlarging price gap with other vegoils/so better demands may be
BALANCED vs carcinogen accusations/biodiesel bans by EU, Indian import-duty hike, huge stocks
still and global economical/political risks! ).
a) YESTERDAY:
 Malaysian Palmoil Bourse/Bursa Malaysia was EASED by 11 basis points for Apr18 delivery.
 ALBEIT the export-tax ( 5.5% now ) suspension of Malaysian Government, seasonally lower
output ( Jan18, 13.5%  ), still lingering El-Nino angst/effects, mostly solid Petrol and Soyoil
nowadays and huge price gap with other vegoils ( so better demand potentials, but 11%
 Feb18 ) ; EU biodiesel ban rumours for Palmoil, huge stocks ( already 2.55 Mln T by end-
Jan18 ) still, global economical/legislative ( for biodiesel mostly ) risks and Indian import-duty
hike as well as profit-takings resulted in TAD DOWN closure ( but flattish as USD/mt of FOB ).
 RBD Palmoil FOB Malaysia seller prices comprised as 680 $/mt ( ) for Apr18 and 675 $/mt
for May/Jun18 and 665 $/mt for Jul/Sep18.
 RBD Palm Olein FOB Malaysia seller prices also comprised as 680 $/mt for Mar18 and 675
$/mt for Apr/Jun18 and 665 $/mt for Jul/Sep18.

b) LATEST BEARISH & BULLISH FUNDEMENTALS:
 BEARISH: Carcinogen accusations and biodiesel bans ( also US tax for Indonesian biodiesel
) in Europe, import-duty hike by India ( new ones by today ), almost flattish Ringgit, Soyoil
and Petrol in Malaysian hours, HUGE stocks ( 2.55 Mln T of end-Jan18 ) still, and global
economical risks ( so demand angst on China and EU as major buyers).
 BULLISH: Seasonally lower output ( Jan18, 13.5%  ), no export tax for 3-months, weather
risks/El Nino renewal fears, enlarged price gap vs other vegoils ( so probably better
demands soon, but Feb18, SGS/Intertek, 11%  ), and more biodiesel effords in Indonesia
and partly Malaysia.
c) TODAY:
 Malaysian Palmoil Bourse is TUMBLED with Indian import-duty hike and 670 - 675 and 670 -
675 $/mt of RBD Palmoil and PalmOlein FOB prices of Mar18 exist respectively.
d) TURKISH PALMOIL/PALM KERNEL OIL IMPORTS:
 By Jan 2018, officially, 71.5kmt ( Malaysia, 67.5 ) of Palmoil and 9 kmt ( Malaysia, 7.5 ) of
Palm Kernel Oil imports. By Jan/Dec 2017, officially, 602 kmt ( Malaysia, 592 ) of Palmoil and
87 kmt ( Malaysia, 66 ) of Palm Kernel Oil imports. By Jan/Dec17, also 617 kmt ( Malaysia,
564.5 ) of Palmoil and 91.0 kmt ( Malaysia, 70.5 ) of Palm Kernel Oil imports.

11
a) In Thrace, by YDAY, it was mostly drier and partly shiny. The highest daytime temperature
at Edirne city centre was measured as 2 C ( the lowest nighttime, minus 10.5 C ). Further
locally efficient rains ( even sleets and snows at highs ) are likely by today. Additionally,
daytime temperatures will move at 11/18 C range ( at mornings, 5/10 C ) during the next 10
days. The weather is partly spring from now on.
b) Anatolia was rainy/sleety/snowy at eastern half and northern parts by YDAY, AND once the
precipitation at western coasts only is likely by today!
c) Black Sea was mostly snowy in Ukraine and Russia by YDAY, AND once the precipitation is
likely by almost regionwide basis! Some more ice formations at the coasts and Taganrog
Bay, and further ice risk exists till early next week!
d) Malaysia and Indonesia, major Palmoil producers, had beneficial rains by YDAY, AND today
will be also further beneficially rainy including some floods!
e) South America was rainy in most of Brazil and Northern Argentina by YDAY, AND once
mostly rainy Brazil and Northern Argentina are likely by today!
SOURCE : WEATHERONLINE/UNIVERSITAT BREMEN
WEATHER REPORT

12
 India has hiked Crude Palmoil and Refined Palmoil import-duties to 44% ( vs 30% ) and 54%
( vs 40% ) respectively. Of course, the new action is at the favor of Sunoil and Soyoil if their
import-duties are not hiked as well
 Now, let’s make a reminder. We cease our traditional ( during 20 year-experience in this
sector ) application radically and take the seasonal start of Sun Complex as July vs Aug.
Because, earlier region of Cukurova harvestings have been initiated by early or mid July (
even late June in drier seasons ) and we really experience so many troubles while we are
fitting our Turkish S&D by taking the season start as August, according to Thrace and others.
 Anyway, let’s share Turkish Sunseed and Sunoil official imports by Jan18 and Jul17/Jan18
seasonally.
 By Jan18, officially, Turkey imported 65 kmt of oil-bearing ( also 6.5 kmt as confectionary
and hybrids ) Sunflower. Major oil-bearing origins;
- Moldova, 38.0 kmt,
- Bulgaria, 12.5 kmt,
- Romania, 12.5 kmt,
- Russia, 2.0 kmt.
 In the season of 17/18, by Jul17/Jan18, officially, Turkey imported 224.5 kmt of oil-bearing
Sunflower ( also 24 kmt as confectionary and hybrids ). Major oil-bearing origins;
- Russia, 36.5 kmt,
- Ukraine, 5.0 kmt,
- Bosnia, 3.0 kmt.
 Please be reminded; in the last season of 16/17, by Jul16/Jun17, officially, Turkey imported
544.0 kmt of oil-bearing Sunflower ( also 19.5 kmt as confectionary and hybrids ). Major oil-
bearing origins;
- Russia, 210.0 kmt,
- Argentina, 29.5 kmt,
- Ukraine, 28.0 kmt,
- Bosnia, 0.5 kmt.
 Please be reminded; in 15/16 season, by Jul15/Jun16, officially, Turkey imported 353.5 kmt
of oil-bearing Sunflower ( also 17.0 kmt as confectionary and hybrids ). Major oil-bearing
origins;
OTHER NEWS

13
- Russia, 32.0 kmt,
- Serbia, 7.0 kmt.
 By Jan18, officially, Turkey imported 39.0 kmt of Sunoil. Major origins;
- Russia, 31.5 kmt,
- Bosnia, 7.5kmt.
 In the season of 17/18, by Jul17/Jan18, officially, Turkey imported 267.5 kmt of Sunoil. Major
origins;
- Bosnia, 40.5 kmt,
- Romania, 5.5 kmt,
- Bulgaria, 3.0 kmt.
 Please be reminded; in the season of 16/17, by Jul16/Jun17, officially, Turkey imported 789.5
kmt of Sunoil. Major origins;
- Bosnia, 81.5 kmt,
- UAE, 1.0 kmt.
 Please be reminded; in 15/16 season, by Jul15/Jun16, officially, Turkey imported 696.0 kmt
of Sunoil. Major origins;
- Bosnia, 49.5 kmt,
 By Jan18, officially, Turkey exported 27 kmt of Sunoil with mainly to Iraq ( 7 ) and Syria ( 7 ).
 In the season of 17/18, by Jul17/Jan18, officially, Turkey exported 215.0 kmt of Sunoil with
mainly to Iraq ( 52.5 ) and Syria ( 68.5 ).
 Please be reminded; in the season of 16/17, by Jul16/Jun17, officially, Turkey exported 651.5
kmt of Sunoil with mainly to Iraq ( 388.5 ) and Syria ( 115.5 ).
 Please be reminded; in 15/16 season, by Jul15/Jun16, officially, Turkey exported 565.0 kmt
of Sunoil comprising 325.5 kmt of Iraq and 120.0 kmt of Syria foremost.
BY MONDAY,
LET’S UPDATE ALSO TURKISH FOREIGN FIGURES OF OTHER OILSEEDS/VEGOILS/FEEDSTUFFIES!
© SUNSEEDMAN
This report has been launched for subscribers only and all a/m comments, news and prices contained herein are believed
reliable. SUNSEEDMAN does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete. SUNSEEDMAN Ltd will not accept
any responsibility of losses or damages with the relevant comments and prices. Any uses of reproduction, dissemination,
copying, disclosure, modification, distribution and/or publication are strictly prohibited.

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