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Painel 3 - Cenários para o mercado de commodities - John Kemp

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John Kemp, da Reuters, apresenta dados sobre o mercado de petróleo no mundo e impactos econômicos sobre o agronegócio. Apresentado no Seminário Perspectivas para o Agribusiness 2016-2017 em 16/06/2016, em São Paulo.

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Painel 3 - Cenários para o mercado de commodities - John Kemp

  1. 1. Global oil outlook 2016-2018 Supply, demand and prices JOHN KEMP REUTERS June 2016 (John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
  2. 2. Real oil price quadrupled 2002-14, then fell 70% 2014-16
  3. 3. Real oil price averaged >$100 per bbl for 2011-H1 2014
  4. 4. Oil consumption peaked in OECD, growth relied on EMs
  5. 5. Oil supply (mostly non-OPEC) responded to higher price
  6. 6. U.S. shale output increased 1-2% per month 2012-2014
  7. 7. U.S. output up from 5mb/d (2008) to 9.7mb/d (Apr 2015)
  8. 8. Decade of high and rising oil prices 2004-2014 Real price of crude ≥ $100 for 3.5 years 2011-2014 Oil supply accelerating Oil demand decelerating Emerging imbalance Lower prices required to realign supply and demand
  9. 9. “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop” –– Stein’s Law Herbert Stein, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers (1972-74) What I Think: Essays on Economics, Politics and Life (1998)
  10. 10. Adjusting oil supply involves three groups of producers OPEC Core Gulf Iran (Iraq?) African/Latin American members U.S. shale Core plays and counties Marginal plays and counties Non-OPEC non-shale (NONS) North Sea Deepwater Arctic Megaprojects Frontier Non-OPEC supply now falling at fastest rate for >20 years
  11. 11. OECD oil consumption returns to growth led by United States Non-OECD sees growth in some large EMs (China, India, Mexico) Offsetting slowdown in oil demand from oil and commodity exporting countries (Brazil, Gulf monarchies) Oil consumption growing > 1.5mb/d each year 2015-2018
  12. 12. Cheap gasoline has unleashed driving boom in the U.S.
  13. 13. India is also experiencing a boom in gasoline demand
  14. 14. India gasoline consumption growing at 10% per year
  15. 15. Mexico also seeing fast growth in gasoline consumption
  16. 16. Brazil’s fuel consumption is falling with recession
  17. 17. Low oil prices discouraging investment in exploration and production Non-OPEC oil supply falling at fastest rate for more than 20 years Oil consumption increasing at around 1.5mb/d per year 2015-2017 Emerging imbalance Supply disruptions (Canada, Nigeria, Iraq, Venezuela) accelerating adjustment Higher prices required to realign supply and demand
  18. 18. Production outages >3.5 mb/d accelerate adjustment
  19. 19. “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop” –– Stein’s Law Herbert Stein, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers (1972-74) What I Think: Essays on Economics, Politics and Life (1998)
  20. 20. Hedge funds amass near-record bullish position on oil
  21. 21. Forward oil prices anticipate tighter market in 2017/18
  22. 22. Oil prices expected to recover gradually to $70 by 2020

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