US dollar in under huge pressure but will it continue this week?
Wkly010617
1. THE WEEKLY Page 1
THE WEEKLY
Market Report: January 6th
2017 (Volume 7: Issue 1)
Executive Summary: Absolutely no comparisons to January’16 evident so far; Trump’s Low
‘Successful Presidency’ #’s (+39%/ -30%) a Good Sign for ‘over- delivering’ in 2017?
S&P500 – Reality ‘trumps’ perception as the Inauguration looms & the curtain lifts?.......... a Sino
Horror Show with the US/ Russian Pantomime starring O & Vlad encoring till Jan 20th?
Sentiment data – Put/Call #’s Steady @ 1.00 (0.99); VIX @ 11.32% (14.04%). Bulls steady @ 42.6%,
8% Over- Weight; Bears -0.5% @ 5% Under- Weight & Neutrals 28.6% near their L/T #.
Shanghai’s SSEC – Another Rabbit ‘pulled out of the hat’ in Offshore Trade to squeeze the Shorts......as
the PBoC lends to the State Banks so as to Lend to the Non- Banks so as to Lend to the.......???
NASDAQ100 – New Weekly Closing Highs for the Rally amid many a Signal (8) on the MACD/ Q4’16.
NIKKEI225 – Further Gains as the Outlook brightens & JPY remains steady but ‘weak’ @ 117.00.
DAX – Christmas quiet followed by Gains (catch- up) as EMU Zone Yields ‘back- up’.
ASX200 – Rally has Momentum that has to be respected; whether the Local Economy does..........?
Fixed Income: A Non- Farms Payrolls ‘miss’ amid Wage Gains.
US 10 year Note – US Yields edge lower as European Yields go the other way (Bunds).
Currencies: $ Risks would appear to have shifted to the Down- side Medium- Term?
EUR/USD – December’s Indecisive Monthly Chart exerts its immediate influence with some support.
USD/JPY – ¥en swings rather widely intra Week (HK/ CNY?) to end where it started.
AUD/USD – Trade into the Surplus column as Record Dirt Exports ‘pay’ for our ‘Smashed Avocados’?
Commodities:
Industrial Metals – Gains amid Over- Sold S/T condition BUT still below the 50day SMA.
Gold – The Over- Sold reaction Rally has unfolded & has potential to Test our $1206 S/T Target.
Copper – Sideways/ Up.....nothing notable amid further Capital Outflows from China.
Crude Oil ($WTI) – “ABOVE $50bbl” & US Baker- Hughes Rig Count #’s continue Gains....as does
Crude as it too probes higher intra- Week. Media chatter of Trade Wars & ‘who wins’
need a careful calculation of US Energy Self- Sufficiency should matters get serious &
Trade Barriers get ‘built’. US Inflation will NOT come from Energy Prices.
2. THE WEEKLY Page 2
INDEX: Page 1: Executive Summary
Page 2: Index
Page 3: Market Sentiment #’s & NYSE McClellan Oscillator
Page 4: Spotlight – OECD concerns over Global Real Estate Valuations.
Page 5: US Biotechnology - Weekly Chart
Page 6: Dow Transports – Weekly Chart
Page 7: US 10 Year Note - Weekly Price Chart & Fixed Income Matrix
Page 8: S&P500 - Daily Chart
Page 9: NDX100 (NASDAQ100) - Daily Chart
Page 10: S&P500 - Weekly Chart (NDX Monthly) & Equity Matrix
Page 11: Philadelphia Bank Index (BKX) & Small Caps (S&P600)
Page 12: German DAX - Daily & Weekly Charts
Page 13: UK FTSE100 & France’s CAC40 Weekly Charts
Page 14: Japan NIKKEI225 & NZ50 Index Weekly Charts
Page 15: China Shanghai - & Hang Seng Index (HSI) Weekly Charts
Page 16: Australia ASX200 - Daily Chart & Economic news
Page 17: Australia ASX200 - Weekly Chart
Page 18: MSCI EM ETF (EEM) & NASDAQ AAXJ Asia ex- Japan iSHARE
Page 19: Brazil BOVESPA - Daily & Weekly Charts
Page 20: EURO Currency vs. US Dollar - Daily Chart
Page 21: Australian Dollar vs. US Dollar - Daily Chart
Page 22: Japanese Yen vs. US Dollar - Weekly Chart
Page 23: US Dollar Index - Weekly Chart & Currency Matrix
Page 24: Industrial Metals ($GYX) - Daily & Weekly Charts
Page 25: Gold - Daily & Weekly Charts
Page 26: Copper - Daily & Weekly Charts
Page 27: WTI Crude Oil – Weekly Chart & Commodity Matrix
Page 28: Worthy of Note & Economic Calendar. Disclaimer
3. THE WEEKLY Page 3
Market Observations & Comments:
Equity Sentiment: Bulls +0.6% @ 46.2% (38.5% L/T av.), Bears -0.5% @ 25.2% (30.5%),
Neutrals Flat @ 28.6% (31.0%). (AAII)
Put/ Call Ratio: Steady @ 1.00 (0.99); VIX Lower @ 11.32% (14.04%).
Bullish Sentiment & 8 Week Moving Average; S&P500 Index Weekly Close:
Bulls 8- Week Moving Average above 45% & coincident with the Weekly ‘Print’
(46.2%)....yet still no ‘counter- effect’ as the Benchmark gains & Low VIX Close (11.32%).
NYSE Composite McClellan Oscillator: +1.63%/ Week (Bad Print still on Charts)
NYSE Index: Weekly Gains as per the Benchmark S&P500 = No Clues here.
Oscillator: Another Weekly Close & yet we remain < 100; Rally’s made of the ‘Right Stuff’?
Summation Index: “Only @ mid- levels giving away little to assist in ‘where to next.’” 12/16
4. THE WEEKLY Page 4
THE WEEKLY: Global Interest Rates = #1 Global Asset Price Risk?
OECD issues ‘warning’ over Global Home Prices in some countries:
US 10- Year Note Yield Monthly Chart: A simple Reversion to pre- GFC/ 2008-09 Yields (4%)
from the current 2 ½ % does pose the obvious question regarding Mortgage Rates (High % of which =
Variable) in the ‘vulnerable’ economies (Highly Leveraged) & their attendant Real Estate Valuations?
December’s Indecisive Chart does suggest some ‘back & fill’ of recent sharp Yield increases.
5. THE WEEKLY Page 5
BIOTECHS INDEX WEEKLY CHART: +6.83%/ Week
“The MACD still in SELL Mode...NO signs of ‘life’ in High Beta ‘land’.....a concern?” 07/14/15
“S&P500 up 10+% (1880- 2075).......Biotechnology lower; 50/200day SMA SELL Signal” 10/23
“3 ½% & 3% Gains previous 2 Weeks (Santa) & NOW a ‘stall’; previous such developments
have witnessed immediate WEAKNESS......... Lower S/T the Bias.” 01/01
“ -37% YTD (Intra- Week) & -47% from the Highs” 02/19
“Until 3740 surmounted & this is ALL simply a Counter- Rally of the Huge Losses” 11/25
New Year & Huge Gains for the High Beta former ‘darling’....a sign of the Trump Times???
DMI/ ADX edging back to a potential Buy Signal; other Technical Studies & middling levels.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: “persistent Over- Bought Condition serving to warn that ALL
rallies DO NOT last forever. When we see something; we’ll say something.” 3/06
“Question: Rally in the Benchmark S&P500 juxtaposed to the apparent ‘Failure’ here.” 10/23
“2375 defines ‘existential’ Support & BELOW that....from 1812 likely surrendered.”
“BioTech Index remains shy its 38.2% retrace signalling this Rally a ‘Counter’ one.” 03/04
“The Bear Flag YET to be invalidated & an Optimal Tactical Short Trade opportunity come
Monday with a ‘cheap’ Stop/ Loss for those willing to suffer a small loss with potential for
Large Gains should this High Momentum Rally exhaust & Correct in similar ‘style’?”... 08/05
“Major Resistance circa 3745/50 remains unchallenged”. 12/23/16
Bear Flag Thesis: allows for a Rally to Test the upper- ledge of said Bear Flag circa 3700 & the
3745/50 (61.8% retrace of huge losses from the Record/ Bubble like Highs @ 4457: -47%)
6. THE WEEKLY Page 6
DOW JONES TRANSPORT WEEKLY ($TRAN): +0.67%/ Week @ 9,104.08
Intermodal/ Global Transport & Trade News:
BALTIC FREIGHT INDEX: Steady into the New Year @ 963 (961).
Outbound Asia Spot Rates: Europe @ best > July, US East Coast @ 2016 High.
CCFI: EX- China Weekly Rate Moves > Nth America +4%; > Europe +4%; Nth
Asia -3.67%/ > SE Asia -5%/ > HK, Macau, Taiwan -6 ½ %. (12/30)
(Baltic Exchange/ JOC/ CCFI)
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: “Nothing new to alter the ‘Corrective’ Bias for the Trannies.” 01/16/15
“Weekly Chart: In SELL Mode; Large Distributive HIGH in the making since Nov’14?” 03/27
“Weekly Close back below 38% of losses leaving Trannies in ‘Down- Mode’ M- Term.” 09/18
“Weekly MACD Sell Signal = Trannies as the Lead Indicator.” 12/04
“‘Higher Highs/ Higher Lows’ THESIS that is Signalling….. the worst is behind us?” 02/26/16
“61.8% retrace of 9310.22 High @ 8200 ultimate arbiter of the veracity of this Rally.” 03/25
“Close > 8200 & this Rally becomes ‘real’.” 07/22
“9000 looks entirely doable (Momentum)...12% last 3 Weeks, 9000 Target attained.” 11/25
“Daily Studies exhibiting Negative Divergences (RSI); Over- Bought Stochastic Studies keep
the onus on the Trump Bulls to keep this Rally alive into Year- End.”.. 12/02
“Sharp Weekly losses (-2 ½ %); last Friday’s Indecision the Sign.......Over- Bought Technical
condition ‘kicking into gear’ with 1.6% losses as the Trannies ‘gave it up’ 1st
in 2nd
Week Dec.”
Now an Indecisive Week & unlike the S&P500/ DJIA not setting New Highs (DOW Theory).
7. THE WEEKLY Page 7
US10 YR NOTE DAILY YIELD ($TNX): -3bps @ 2.42%
“BIG Question: Has the Huge Rally post 2008 finally terminated (@ 1.33% in July this year)?
“Rally can be construed as a Large Wedge (A/B/C/D/ a/b/c/d/e/ E @ 1.33%) like structure into
the Lows (see Page #4) & if so then the point of origin = Long- Term Target: 5.33%.” 11/11
“Negative Divergences in BOTH the RSI & MACD suggestive further give back of sharp %
moves the likely path into early 2017; 2 Gaps in need of filling @ 2.10%/ 1.88%” 12/23
“Monthly Chart: Net 5bps Higher Yield for December = Indecision in Risk Assets?” 12/30
Minor Gains for Treasuries; the Monthly NFP’s not as ebullient as the Weekly Claims #’s?
Notable & converse back- up in European Yields (Bunds lead the charge with 9bps higher
move: 20bps > 29bps) as the ECB signals QE has its ‘limits’ into 2017.
PERFORMANCE MATRIX for GLOBAL BONDS (S&P500): Weekly/ Monthly & Quarterly #’s.
8/5/16 12/9/16 12/30/16 1/6/17 Weekly Beta Monthly Beta QoQ Beta
S&P500 2182.87 2259.53 2238.83 2276.98 1.70% 1.00 0.77% 1.00 4.31% 1.00
US T-Bills 0.45% 0.63% 0.61% 0.61% 0.00% 0.00 -3.17% -4.11 35.6% 8.25
US-2YR 0.72% 1.13% 1.19% 1.22% 2.52% 1.48 7.96% 10.31 69.4% 16.11
US-10YR 1.58% 2.46% 2.45% 2.42% -1.22% -0.72 -1.63% -2.11 53.2% 12.33
US-30YR 2.32% 3.16% 3.07% 3.00% -2.28% -1.34 -5.06% -6.56 29.3% 6.80
BUNDS -0.07% 0.36% 0.20% 0.29% 45.00% 26.41 -19.44% -25.18 -514% -119.3
GILTS 0.67% 1.45% 1.23% 1.38% 12.20% 7.16 -4.83% -6.25 106% 24.58
JGBs -0.10% 0.05% 0.04% 0.05% 25.00% 14.67 0.00% 0.00 -150% -34.79
AUD10 YR 1.86% 2.81% 2.76% 2.68% -2.90% -1.70 -4.63% -5.99 44.1% 10.23
8. THE WEEKLY Page 8
EQUITY MARKET ANALYSIS: S&P500
“LOWER remains the Risk & Bias”….. 01/01/16
“Out- Side Down Reversal 2 Weeks back still exerting its ‘influence’”....... 09/02
“DOW Industrials: Outside- Down Day Wednesday (in isolation)” .........not THE Signal for a
Correction BUT nevertheless enough of one to instigate a pause of sorts for this Rally.
Any/ All pullbacks (2%) in “Dip Buying” categorization as the Rally was always ‘light’ in terms
of participation (48% of Voters?); Gains to extend until reality does indeed ‘intervene’?
S&P500 STOCK INDEX DAILY CHART: +1.70%/ Week @ Close Friday: 2276.98
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: “Test of 1951 looms; potential for serious ‘look’ @ 1867 Lows.” 12/11
“Bottom Line: GAP @ 1951 ‘needs’ to be Filled” 01/01
“MACD Buy Signal: allow for gains to ‘build’ & exceed the Record High 2134 07/08
“MACD Sell Signal: Remains in effect BUT with very little (nothing) to show for itself.” 08/19
“MACD on Sell Signal below Zero Line suggests 2115 will break & 2070 looms.......
“Below 2070 & 2020 Supports should keep matters ‘together’ 1st
Time there.” BASIS the CME
Trade; the 2028 Lows can be construed as a Test of the 2020 Support?” 11/11
“Too far too fast Rally?”.....RSI; like the MACD reinventing itself with a ‘bounce’ off of the 50
mid- level, Friday’s Close below the previous intra- day Record High scored mid- December
whilst the MACD yet to forfeit its Sell Signal....................Aggressive Types still Tactically Short?
9. THE WEEKLY Page 9
NASDAQ100 INDEX DAILY CHART: +2.95%/ Week @ Close Friday: 5007.08
“GAP @ 3872.36 the OUTLIER.....THAT IS WHERE THE RISK lies.” 08/21/2015
“Bias is for Lower with 50% retrace of Rally > 3787 (4263) Closing the 4267 GAP.” 12/18/15
“Large Weekly Shadow keeps S/T Bias Lower; 4650 in a ‘hurry’ if this is what it is.” 10/28
“Over- Bought Market & Weekly Indecision.......R&R into the New Year/ Inauguration?”.....
No rest for this Trump Rally as the MACD’s succession of Signals since early September keeps
this particular Index ‘alive’ albeit with 3 ½ % of Gains (over 4+Months) to show for it.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: “December’ 15 Monthly Chart = Outside Down Reversal........last time
witnessed June 2008...........June 2008 Close: 1837.1 (2055.8 High); subsequent ‘best’ post the Monthly
Signal (Sell) @ 1973.6 BEFORE descent into 2009 ‘abyss’ Lows @ 1018.90 (44.5% Decline).” 01/01
“4267 remains our Target........ that’s where we’re going in January!” 01/01/2016
“GAP lurking higher should the ‘Gods’ of Frustration deem a Rally that far: 4593?” 01/22
“Tom DeMark 9 period TDM Set- Up in full SELL effect here in the NDX100 Index.” 04/22
“MACD about to Signal a SELL.........sideways churn below Record Highs in S&P500?” 08/12
“So far 2 ½ % Losses of 5% Corrective View; Jan’17 shaping up to be volatile/ choppy?” 12/30
8 MACD Signals in 17 Weeks says it all with ongoing Over- Bought YET Gains for not only
the NDX100 but the broader market as well. Recent analysis of “fully priced” Equity
Valuations valid only insofar as the ‘prism’ of the last 8- years. If things have changed NOT
only politically; but economically (animal spirits).......then Top Picking a Dangerous Game.
10. THE WEEKLY Page 10
S&P500 INDEX WEEKLY CHART: “NOT stuff of sustainable Rally = Tactical Short” 07/10/2015
“Bias MUST shift to further losses & Closing the 1951 GAP/ TEST of 1867 Low.” 12/11
“NDX100 MTHLY: Outside – Down Monthly on High Beta NDX = CAUTION/ Short.” 01/01/16
“Outside- Down KEY Reversal Week....... a Medium- Term High.” 08/26
“REMINDER: Outside- Down Key Reversal Week Aug.19 NOW defines CORRECTION.” 10/14
“MACD remains on its M/Term BUY Signal”....... & has proven to be a reliable Indicator of
Medium- Term moves; so UNTIL we witness a Signal here (MACD).....enjoy the ride higher.
Over- Bought Condition cannot last forever; but another 8- 12 Weeks has precedence.......
PERFORMANCE MATRIX FOR MAJOR INDICES (S&P500):
8/5/16 12/9/16 12/30/16 1/6/17 Weekly Beta Monthly Beta QoQ Beta
S&P500 2182.87 2259.53 2238.83 2276.98 1.70% 1.00 0.77% 1.00 4.31% 1.00
NDX100 4791.21 4895.90 4863.62 5007.08 2.95% 1.73 2.27% 2.94 4.51% 1.05
ASX200 5497.41 5560.00 5665.80 5755.58 1.58% 0.93 3.52% 4.55 4.70% 1.09
BOVESPA 57661.14 60500.62 60227.29 61665.37 2.39% 1.40 1.93% 2.49 6.94% 1.61
SHANGHAI 2976.70 3232.88 3103.64 3154.32 1.63% 0.96 -2.43% -3.15 5.97% 1.38
FTSE100 6793.47 6954.21 7142.83 7210.05 0.94% 0.55 3.68% 4.76 6.13% 1.42
DAX 10367.21 11203.63 11481.06 11599.01 1.03% 0.60 3.53% 4.57 11.88% 2.76
NIKKEI225 16254.45 18996.37 19114.37 19454.33 1.78% 1.04 2.41% 3.12 19.69% 4.57
VIX 11.39% 11.76% 14.04% 11.32% -19.37% -11.37 -3.74% -4.84 -0.61% -0.14
5-Day P/C % 1.06 0.82 0.99 1.00 0.51% 0.30 21.34% 27.63 -6.13% -1.42
11. THE WEEKLY Page 11
PHILADELPHIA BANKING INDEX ($BKX) WEEKLY: +1.07%/ Week
“24 % Rally ....finally in ‘give back’ Mode; notably the 10s/ 30s Yield Curve flattening?”
4th
Week of sideways Trade post the 5 Weeks of near ‘vertical’ Rally; a pause until proven...
S&P600 SMALL CAPS INDEX ($SML) WEEKLY: +0.26%/ Week
“New Highs, Large Reversal Week..MACD Sell....Finally some respect; $695/ $650 M/T?” 10/14
ONLY Marginal Gains & NO New Highs here with an Indecisive Chart (BKX) suggesting a loss
of Momentum @ the very least & given its Leadership Role (BKX)....worth noting....vulnerable?
12. THE WEEKLY Page 12
GERMANY’S DAX ($DAX) DAILY CHART: +1.03%/ Week Close: 11,599.01
“Support @ 10,200 (38%/ Rally > 9214)....... with a Bull Flag potentially in play?”......
“Sustained period of Over- Bought.......DAX always plays ‘catch- up’....just watch.”.....INDEED
but not the way we postulated as a 1 Day vault higher only to be STILL under the MACD Sell?
DAX WEEKLY CHART: “Outside- Down Weekly”..12/04…. “M/ T VIEW Lower into 2016” .12/18
“Weekly Close > 61.8% retrace = Larger Bull Flag is finally being ‘heard’?”
Gains BUT still some 7% short of the Record Highs from Q1 2015; where’s the ‘Love’?
13. THE WEEKLY Page 13
UK’s FTSE 100 INDEX ($FTSE) WEEKLY CHART: +0.94%/ Week
Another “RECORD HIGH” Week for the unrepentant 100 that simply will have nothing of
“Post- BREXIT “CHAOS” nonsense from “BoE’s Carney.” Perhaps a Mr Bean cameo for Mark?
FRANCE’S CAC40 ($CAC) WEEKLY CHART: +0.98%/ Week
“Large Bull Flag; 4500 Resistance.......next Week telling M/Term.” 08/19 “Bull Flag Thesis”
AGAIN “Similar to the DAX” yet still also well below its Record Highs from Q3 2015....Why?
14. THE WEEKLY Page 14
JAPAN’s NIKKEI225 ($NKK) WEEKLY CHART: +1.78%/ Week
“Close > 61.8% retrace suggesting 21K Highs M/ T.”.....More Gains as nothing quite like a fast
15% devaluation of the nation’s currency to blow along Equity Market Valuations? Ask China
NEW ZEALAND 50 ($NZ50) WEEKLY INDEX: +1.30%/ Week
“Previous Week’s steep losses; Our Bias......something more ‘sinister’.” 10/14
“6500 doable, 5750 unthinkable?....Indecisive Weekly suggests a Counter- Rally....Lower M/T”
Bear Flag potential yet to be negated as heavily Over- Sold Condition gets ‘worked- off’.
15. THE WEEKLY Page 15
CHINA SHANGHAI ($SSEC) DAILY CHART: +1.63%/ Week
“2017’s Swan?.....President Xi’s accepts the notion of lower than 6 ½ % GDP in 2017.” 12/23
Annual Offshore (HK) Money Market ‘squeeze’ closes out the Shorts & 48 hours later.....RMB
continues its controlled ‘over the cliff’ devaluation; PBoC emergency lending to State Banks....?
HONG KONG’S HANG SENG WEEKLY CHART ($HSI): +2.28%/ Week
“Major 24,660 Res”.......The NCY crowd witness the CNY ‘squeeze’ as more sycophants throw
their hats into the ring for the SAR’s electoral ‘circus’ in 2017; the HSI will reflect the Voters.
16. THE WEEKLY Page 16
AUSTRALIAN ASX200 INDEX ($SPASX200): “Secret IMF Research on Australia: ....citing
OZ as the ‘advanced economy’ “most at risk” from a prolonged Sino slowdown.” 09/25/2015
AiG Manufacturing PMI: Higher @ 55.4 (54.2) on Production, Sales, Exports & New Orders
whilst Employment was “slightly lower.”
AiG Services PMI: “Surges” to 57.7 from 51.1 (straight from the US?) & Highest Level since
May 2007 on “particularly Strong” Sales & New Orders.
China IHS- Markit Manufacturing. PMI: Higher @ 51.9 (50.9) & ‘fastest’ in 4 years as the
Official Factory PMI declined slightly to 51.4 from 51.7.
China Consumer Sentiment: Higher @ 116.6 (114.9) reports WBC/ MNI; Personal Finances
leading the way @ +4.1% & Business Expectations back to best levels since September 2016.
China Services Index: Higher @ 53.4 (53.1) reports Caixin on Higher Price Inflation.
ASX200 DAILY CHART: +1.58%/ Week Close Friday: 5,755.58
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: “Wide Range Outside Down Day” ... “the ‘party’ is over?” 03/20/15
“Our Thesis: Long- Term 4600 Support …..very likely to be TESTED in 2016”...... 01/08
“Correlation to Crude Oil.....Reversal Thursday........Risks to 5100 +/-.” 06/10
“Outside- Down Week for the Bears; 1st
Stop = 5350 & 5200 for the adventurous.” 08/05
“China’s Xi proclamation on sub- 6 ½ % GDP to FOCUS ‘minds’ on where Dalian Spot Price
leads the Miracle Down- Under amid Brazil’s VALE $7.70/ tonne existential threat?” 12/23
“Weekly MACD Buy Signal continues to ‘drive’ the Miracle.....Over- Bought condition will
eventually temper recent ‘enthusiasms’.” NOT yet; Friday a sign of some Indecision?
17. THE WEEKLY Page 17
ASX200 WEEKLY CHART: “Colossal misjudgement of future demand,” The Commodity Illusion.
“Ned Davis Research: “we are in Year 4 of a 20 year Bear SUPER Cycle” for Commodities &
reinforcing the extent of the challenges that Australia faces for a Generation or so?” 10/23/15
US/ China Trade posturing: “Chinese state media warned U.S. President-elect Donald Trump
that he’ll be met with “big sticks” if he tries to ignite a trade war or further strain ties.
“There are flowers around the gate of China’s Ministry of Commerce, but there are also big
sticks hidden inside the door -- they both await Americans,” the Communist Party’s Global
Times newspaper wrote in an editorial Thursday.” (Bloomberg 01/05)
US/ China Trade ‘dependency’: China Trade/ GDP = 41%; US @ 28% with US now self-
sufficient in Energy ‘needs’. China Domestic Consumption/ GDP = 38%; US = 68%.
Trade Balance: Swings into Surplus @ A$1.243B from previous A$1.119B Deficit (revised
lower by A$400m) on 8% jump in Exports & Flat Imports (weak Domestic Demand?).
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: “OUTSIDE- DOWN Weekly Chart: M- Term Bearish now.” 03/06/15
“Weekly Sell Signal....in effect.” 05/22 “potential to ‘take back’ WHOLE 5122 Rally.” 06/12/15
“MACD Buy & nascent Buy Cross on the DMI’s (lower study) suggest further gains.....we’re not
(never?) so sure amid other global indices’ signs of hesitancy into early 2017.” 12/23
“Both the MACD Buy Signal (5560) & DMI Cross ‘Buy’ being respected as the ASX200 scores
‘healthy’ December Gains compared to its Global peers.....” 12/30
Gains in line with Global Indices as the ‘believers’ keep buying into the ‘transition’ thesis from
Exports to Domestic Demand...........YET the evidence (Trade) would suggest otherwise???
MACD & DMI/ADX Buys drive this UNTIL PROVEN OTHERWISE....Bears be patient.
18. THE WEEKLY Page 18
MSCI EM (NYSE: EEM) WEEKLY CHART: +2.66%/ Week @ $35.94
“Outside- Up Week.....Close above $35.00......$37.55 doable M/ Term.” 07/15
“Nice Gains BUT still below the apparent Up- Trend Line that shall define M/T Outlook.” 12/02
“Up- Trend Line ‘failure’ can be ‘fatal’.”.... +5% in 2 Weeks as the EM Space ‘exhales’......deeply.
AAXJ iSHARE: MSCI Asia- Ex Japan Index Fund WEEKLY CHART +2.90%/ Week
“Bear Flag Thesis......Lower”....... 01/01 “M/ T High fast becoming fact?”... 10/28
Tracking the EEM’s gains @ +4%; it’s STILL all about getting back above $58+/-.
19. THE WEEKLY Page 19
BRAZIL’s BOVESPA ($BVSP) DAILY INDEX: +2.39%/ Week Close Friday: 61,665.37
“We stay above 48K & Bull remains in strong position.” 05/27
“Retrace potential“ 6% snap- back Rally last 2 Weeks underscores renewed interest in EM’s?
BOVESPA WEEKLY CHART: “Clearly Indecisive Weekly; BUY @ $35K” 02/26
“38% of Gains > 48K retraced; 54.4 next amid what appears to be an ‘unravelling’?” 11/11
“Outside- Down Week; 54,450 M/T Risk still our Bias.” Turn- Up from Mid- RSI = ???
20. THE WEEKLY Page 20
CURRENCY ANALYSIS: “US Index breakout above the 100.70/ 100.60 Double-
Tops.... Weekly Close back below 100.50.” .....with potential Target @ 104.10 ($ Index)
“ECB’s Draghi acknowledges that FEDERAL RESERVE QE/ ZIRP have ‘masked’ the EU’s
economic / banking woes & is no longer the case. IE Europe the ‘sick man’ AGAIN.” 12/16
EURO/USD DAILY CHART: Flat%/ Week @ Close: 1.0530
NOTE: “Monthly Chart as the EURO remains under a SELL Signal basis the Full Stochastic &
soon to be assisted by the RSI/ MACD signalling 2 SELL’s (RSI<MACD; MACD Sell)” 12/16
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: “Bear Flag or a Series of Higher Lows & Highs = Up- Trend?” 03/25
“Simple Moving Average Signals: P/L discipline DOES allow for Profits over time.....this Time
being NO different as Sell Signal (10/04) results in 3% P/L in 12 Trading Days & counting’.”
“Outside- Down Weekly Chart & 20/40 SMAs suggestive of a potentially Trending Market
(Lower); is Parity ‘possible’ M/Term?” 11/11
“Indecisive Weekly #’s leaves the EURO with potential to Rally into Year’s end & perhaps also
score an Indecisive Monthly Chart which should ‘buy it some time’ in Q1 2017?” 12/23/2016
Another Downside ‘probe’ & successful Test of levels below the apparent 1.05 Pivot.....US$
strength YET to translate into serious (& ‘stick- able’) losses for the EURO.
21. THE WEEKLY Page 21
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR DAILY (AUDUSD): +1.11%/ Week @ Close: 0.7300
Weekly Perspective: “OUTSIDE- DOWN Weekly Chart should herald the much anticipated
Correction/ Adjustment for the lackadaisical/ languid....lazy Down- Under?” 11/11
Trade Surplus: The ‘Battler’ gets a reprieve of sorts as the Trade Account swings into Surplus
on an Export boost (+8%MoM) & more importantly Flat Imports....which @ the ‘end of the
day’ is where the RBA’s stellar research gurus should be focused as that what employs Aussies.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
“Reversion to the 40day usually a Signal that M/Term Trend Reversal playing out......YET again
this has been a worthy Trend Reversal Signal with 3% losses to show for its efforts.” 05/06
“Technical BUY Signal.....3 ½ % Gains thus far. Indecisive Weekly Chart & Outside- Down
Day Friday...we are out @ Friday’s Close: 0.7580 for 3 ½ %+ Gain on Tactical Longs.” 07/15
MACD on SELL Signal @ Zero Line (US$ Buy Signal) suggesting Medium- term Losses.” 11/11
“The Battler can sustain losses all the way back to 68 cents technically.........That said & the
Battler can ALSO Counter- Rally back to the previous Up- Trend Line @ 76cts .” 11/25
Monthly Chart: “Negative GDP; weak Full- Time Employment Growth & a Budget that lives or
dies on the Dalian Iron- Ore Price? What with astute analysis by both CS & MQG that the RBA
is STILL “behind the curve” (think Feb 2012 “misplaced pessimism” arrogance).....then?” 12/16
“Inside Week: Potential S/T respite for A$ amid larger Bearish Technical developments.”.. Rally
back to the trustworthy 20/40SMA’s (40) allowed for Re- Shorting if Long from last Week?
22. THE WEEKLY Page 22
DOLLAR/ YEN (USD/ JPY) WEEKLY CHART: Flat%/ Week @ Close: 117.00
“OUR $/JPY 110.00 Puts nicely INTO THE MONEY & some 12 Weeks yet to run” 04/08
“Oct 28th
: Weekly Close 104.75.......The Yen will appeal to some, but who’s left to Buy?” 11/25
“Pivot Point (115.55); beyond here & 120 handles will likely be seen” 12/09
“Bigger Question: ‘Are 120 handles acceptable given RMB pressures?’””.......... 12/23
TECHNICALLY:
Some 6 Month 110 Puts filed under “2nd
Time’s a Charm” OR ‘EUR/CHF Mark II”?” 01/01/16
“110.95 breach sooner or later.......as the JPY = Safe Haven #1.” 03/04
“the $/JPY110 Puts in ‘the right hands’ a Trading Nirvana with 9 Weeks left.” 04/29
“Risks shifting for further US$ gains with 110......Safe Haven Positions may get ‘restless’? 11/11
“Momentum could carry Rally to 61.8% retrace of the whole YEN Rally @ 115.55.” 11/18
Wide- Ranging BUT ultimately an Unchanged Weekly Chart likely reflecting the M/M
machinations in HK as the PBoC exercises whatever tools it can to control the ‘inevitable’
breach of 7.0000 for the beleaguered RMB & ever growing Focus on $3Tr FX Reserve ‘Dam’?
23. THE WEEKLY Page 23
US DOLLAR INDEX DAILY CHART: -0.08%/ Week @ 102.21
“99.25 Low suggests a Triangle since 100.71 with connotations for a 104.10 Target” 12/09
“104 it is.” .......103.62 High gets bettered @ 103.82 & temptingly close to our 104.10 SELL Tgt;
the Daily Chart below illustrative of the Negative Divergences that bolster the M/T SALE.
Aggressive Tactical Short: If this was a breach of the ‘Last- Leg- Up’ Line......Lower in a hurry.
PERFORMANCE MATRIX for FX (vs. S&P500):
8/5/16 12/9/16 12/30/16 1/6/17 Weekly Beta Monthly Beta QoQ Beta
S&P500 2182.87 2259.53 2238.83 2276.98 1.70% 1.00 0.77% 1.00 4.31% 1.00
$ INDEX 96.17 101.50 102.29 102.21 -0.08% -0.05 0.70% 0.91 6.28% 1.46
EURUSD 1.1085 1.0555 1.0525 1.0530 0.05% 0.03 -0.24% -0.31 -5.01% -1.16
USDJPY 101.80 115.35 116.95 117.00 0.04% 0.03 1.43% 1.85 14.93% 3.46
USDCHF 0.9805 1.0180 1.0185 1.0180 -0.05% -0.03 0.00% 0.00 3.82% 0.89
AUDUSD 0.7615 0.7450 0.7220 0.7300 1.11% 0.65 -2.01% -2.61 -4.14% -0.96
GBPUSD 1.3065 1.2575 1.2320 1.2285 -0.28% -0.17 -2.31% -2.99 -5.97% -1.38
USDCNY 6.6605 6.9080 6.9450 6.9241 -0.30% -0.18 0.23% 0.30 3.96% 0.92
USDBRL 3.1655 3.3802 3.2552 3.2226 -1.00% -0.59 -4.66% -6.04 1.80% 0.42
EURCHF 1.0869 1.0745 1.0720 1.0720 0.00% 0.00 -0.24% -0.31 -1.37% -0.32
EURJPY 112.85 121.75 123.09 123.20 0.09% 0.05 1.19% 1.54 9.18% 2.13
EURGBP 0.8485 0.8394 0.8543 0.8571 0.33% 0.20 2.12% 2.74 1.02% 0.24
AUDJPY 77.52 85.94 84.44 85.41 1.15% 0.68 -0.61% -0.79 10.18% 2.36
AUDCHF 0.7467 0.7584 0.7354 0.7431 1.06% 0.62 -2.01% -2.61 -0.47% -0.11
EURAUD 1.4557 1.4168 1.4578 1.4425 -1.05% -0.62 1.81% 2.35 -0.91% -0.21
AUDGBP 0.5829 0.5924 0.5860 0.5942 1.40% 0.82 0.30% 0.39 1.95% 0.45
24. THE WEEKLY Page 24
COMMODITIES:
INDUSTRIAL METALS: DAILY CHART: +1.24%/ Week @ 304.63
“Monday Large Range Reversal; MACD edging towards a Sell Signal ...Support @ $272.75”
“Losses slow with 38% retrace of the Last Leg Up @ $294 untested.” Gains but below the 50day...
WEEKLY CHART:
“Short- Term Low the Bias remains for further downside probing.” As with only a Marginal
Low for this move & then a Weekly High Print= Outside- Up Week = Bullish M/T now?
25. THE WEEKLY Page 25
GOLD ($GOLD) DAILY CHART: +1.88%/ Week @ $1173.40
“Weekly Close below $1170 Support .....leaves Gold....precariously placed into Year- End.”
“Heavily Over- Sold S/T; Bulls now dominate @ 14/17 ‘analysts’ surveyed by Bloomberg.
$1206 ‘doable’ Target still in sight as the Over- Sold corrects itself (RSI > 70)...patience.
WEEKLY CHART: “$OUR Longer- Term VIEW that Gold is @ RISK.” 11/11
“Inside Week followed by another with signs of ‘life’ ......$1200 handles doable on this Counter
Rally attempt.”......Nothing Wrong so far as Gains suggest S/T Momentum to Test $1206.
26. THE WEEKLY Page 26
COPPER DAILY CHART: +1.59%/ Week @ $2.55
“High > $2.75 is attempted & one that we fancy being FOR SALE?” 12/09
“Indecision & Outside- Up Days suggest a retrace of losses (<$2.71) overdue”. 12/30
Gains & some give- back (<$2.58) as Copper continues to digest the stellar Gains > $2.06.
WEEKLY CHART: “Major Resistance @ $2.78 defines Coppers’ L/Term fortunes.”
“Resistance @ $2.57” YET to be overcome Basis a Daily Close.....somewhat sidelined S/Term.
27. THE WEEKLY Page 27
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE DAILY ($WTIC): +0.50%/ Week @ $53.99
Above $50/bbl: “US Shale Guys ‘turn- up’ & we’re Sellers.” ...... 12/23
Baker Hughes Rig Count 665: Oil = Up 4 @ 529; Gas = Up 3 @ 136 (end- 2015: 698)
“Mid- Dec spike @ $54.71 STILL marks the High; sooner or later Supply matters > $50bbl?”...
breached early this Week BUT with a Huge Reversal witnessed basis the Daily Chart below.
Weekly ‘snippet’ Chart highlights the extent (lackthereof) of Crude’s Price Action > $26 &
the Indecisive Weekly patterns over the last few Weeks suggesting vulnerability in Prices?
PERFORMANCE MATRIX for COMMODITIES (S&P500):
8/5/16 12/9/16 12/30/16 1/6/17 Weekly Beta Monthly Beta QoQ Beta
S&P500 2182.87 2259.53 2238.83 2276.98 1.70% 1.00 0.77% 1.00 4.31% 1.00
CRB Index 181.80 191.98 192.51 193.54 0.54% 0.31 0.81% 1.05 6.46% 1.50
COPPER $2.15 $2.65 $2.51 $2.55 1.59% 0.94 -3.77% -4.89 18.60% 4.32
WTI $41.80 $51.50 $53.72 $53.99 0.50% 0.29 4.83% 6.26 29.16% 6.76
GSCI (Ind) 275.03 318.98 300.90 304.63 1.24% 0.73 -4.50% -5.83 10.76% 2.50
GOLD $1,344.40 $1,161.90 $1,151.70 $1,173.40 1.88% 1.11 0.99% 1.28 -12.72% -2.95
BALTIC 636 1090 961 963 0.21% 0.12 -11.65% -15.09 51.42% 11.93
