Tips on how to become a pro in Grand Parade internal Betting League prepared by Lukasz Glowacki.

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GP Betting League
Become a Pro
Łukasz Głowacki

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Plan
● Approaches to betting
● My method
● Some stats and graphs

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Needful knowledge
● Betting for beginners
● Some basics from Probability Theory and Statistics

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About me
● DevOps Engineer in the NYX team
● Interesting in football and gambling theory
● Gambling against friends for 20 years
● Wrote 4 friendly gambling mini-portals
● Some successes in GPBL ;-)

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Approaches to betting
● I’m an expert v I follow experts

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Watching bookmakers

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Watching bookmakers
Manchester United v Liverpool
Match odds
1 3.15
2 2.64
X 3.25

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Watching bookmakers
Manchester United v Liverpool
Match odds Correct score
1 3.15 0 - 0 11.5 2 - 0 19.5
2 2.64 0 - 1 10.5 2 - 1 12.5
X 3.25 0 - 2 17.0 2 - 2 15.5
0 - 3 36.0 2 - 3 36.0
1 - 0 12.0 3 - 0 50.0
1 - 1 7.0 3 - 1 30.0
1 - 2 11.0 3 - 2 42.0
1 - 3 24.0 3 - 3 75.0

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Maximal expected value
● In probability theory, the expected value of a
random variable, intuitively, is the long-run average
value of repetitions of the experiment it represents.

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Example
● Bookmaker pays 10 coins for obtaining numbers 2
or 3 in a dice throw, 20 for obtaining 5 and expects
25 coins back if we obtain 4.

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Maximum expected value
● Expected value of GPBL pointing rules

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Maximum expected value
● Expected value of GPBL pointing rules

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Maximum expected value
● Expected value of GPBL pointing rules

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Maximum expected value
● Bonus points value is not possible to settle straight
from the pointing rules
● But if we assume we count on about 5 correct
scores per gameweek, the average bonus is 2
(0 + 1 + 2 + 3 + 4) / 5 = 10 / 5 = 2
● If the matches are played one after another, we can
use the next possible bonus

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Maximum expected value
● Expected value of GPBL pointing rules

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Example
Manchester United v Liverpool
Match odds Correct score
1 3.15 0 - 0 11.5 2 - 0 19.5
2 2.64 0 - 1 10.5 2 - 1 12.5
X 3.25 0 - 2 17.0 2 - 2 15.5
0 - 3 36.0 2 - 3 36.0
1 - 0 12.0 3 - 0 50.0
1 - 1 7.0 3 - 1 30.0
1 - 2 11.0 3 - 2 42.0
1 - 3 24.0 3 - 3 75.0

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Example
Manchester United v Liverpool - 2 - 1
Match odds Correct score
1 3.15 0 - 0 11.5 2 - 0 19.5
2 2.64 0 - 1 10.5 2 - 1 12.5
X 3.25 0 - 2 17.0 2 - 2 15.5
0 - 3 36.0 2 - 3 36.0
1 - 0 12.0 3 - 0 50.0
1 - 1 7.0 3 - 1 30.0
1 - 2 11.0 3 - 2 42.0
1 - 3 24.0 3 - 3 75.0

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Example
Manchester United v Liverpool - 2 - 1
Match odds Correct score
1 3.15 0 - 0 11.5 2 - 0 19.5
2 2.64 0 - 1 10.5 2 - 1 12.5
X 3.25 0 - 2 17.0 2 - 2 15.5
0 - 3 36.0 2 - 3 36.0
1 - 0 12.0 3 - 0 50.0
1 - 1 7.0 3 - 1 30.0
1 - 2 11.0 3 - 2 42.0
1 - 3 24.0 3 - 3 75.0

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Example
Manchester United v Liverpool - 2 - 1
Match odds Correct score
1 3.15 0 - 0 11.5 2 - 0 19.5
2 2.64 0 - 1 10.5 2 - 1 12.5
X 3.25 0 - 2 17.0 2 - 2 15.5
0 - 3 36.0 2 - 3 36.0
1 - 0 12.0 3 - 0 50.0
1 - 1 7.0 3 - 1 30.0
1 - 2 11.0 3 - 2 42.0
1 - 3 24.0 3 - 3 75.0

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Example
Manchester United v Liverpool - 2 - 1
Match odds Correct score
1 3.15 0 - 0 11.5 2 - 0 19.5
2 2.64 0 - 1 10.5 2 - 1 12.5
X 3.25 0 - 2 17.0 2 - 2 15.5
0 - 3 36.0 2 - 3 36.0
1 - 0 12.0 3 - 0 50.0
1 - 1 7.0 3 - 1 30.0
1 - 2 11.0 3 - 2 42.0
1 - 3 24.0 3 - 3 75.0

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Example
Manchester United v Liverpool - 2 - 1
Match odds Correct score
1 3.15 0 - 0 11.5 2 - 0 19.5
2 2.64 0 - 1 10.5 2 - 1 12.5
X 3.25 0 - 2 17.0 2 - 2 15.5
0 - 3 36.0 2 - 3 36.0
1 - 0 12.0 3 - 0 50.0
1 - 1 7.0 3 - 1 30.0
1 - 2 11.0 3 - 2 42.0
1 - 3 24.0 3 - 3 75.0

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Example
Manchester United v Liverpool - 2 - 1
Match odds Correct score
1 3.15 0 - 0 11.5 2 - 0 19.5
2 2.64 0 - 1 10.5 2 - 1 12.5
X 3.25 0 - 2 17.0 2 - 2 15.5
0 - 3 36.0 2 - 3 36.0
1 - 0 12.0 3 - 0 50.0
1 - 1 7.0 3 - 1 30.0
1 - 2 11.0 3 - 2 42.0
1 - 3 24.0 3 - 3 75.0

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Example
Manchester United v Liverpool - 2 - 1
Score Expected value Score Expected value
1 - 1 2.22 1 - 3 1.78
0 - 1 2.16 2 - 3 1.74
1 - 2 2.13 2 - 0 1.60
0 - 0 1.91 0 - 3 1.59
1 - 0 1.90 3 - 1 1.55
2 - 1 1.88 3 - 2 1.52
0 - 2 1.86 3 - 3 1.46
2 - 2 1.82 3 - 0 1.34

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Well, this is the theory...
But let’s dig into data to find out some regularities
https://bettingleaguegp.appspot.com/api/results?id=34

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Some GPBL stats
The winner

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Some GPBL stats
Correct scores

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Some GPBL stats
Goals difference

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Some GPBL stats
Host goals

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Some GPBL stats
Guest goals

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Some GPBL stats
Correct score - Poland

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Some GPBL stats
Correct score - France

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Some GPBL stats
The winner – Italy, CL

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Some GPBL stats
The winner – England, Poland

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Some GPBL stats
The winner - Spain

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Final tips
● Polish league is unpredictable
● The best approach to the Polish league is 1:0
● In the English and Polish leagues hosts are the
winners in one match out of two
● French league: Martyn mode (1:0, 1:1, 0:1)
● Exceptions are PSG, Monaco, Lyon

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Final tips
● Spanish league likes draws
● Italian doesn’t
● Generally, if the lowest price in match odds is
greater than 2.65, pick draw
● In doubt pick the most popular result
● Keep patient – you are only a fluctuation

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That’s all, folks
Thank you