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Financing the SDGs in the
Pacific
Dr. Raymond Prasad
Economic Adviser
Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat
Outline
Linkages:
SDGs and
Developme
nt Finance
Financing
Landscape
The
“Pacific”
Financing
Priorities &
Means
Financing
Instruments
& Enablers
The Pacific Islands
The Pacific Islands
Size of PICs
EEZ
The Pacific Islands
• The “Pacific” Economy
• Large-ocean States
oBlue Economy:
# Fisheries – Tuna # Deep Sea Mining (Potential)
# Coastal (Tourism) # Marine Protected Zones
• Larger PICs (Land based Natural Resources)
• PNG: # LNG # Gold # Copper # Logging # Agriculture
• Fiji: # Water # Gold # Bauxite # Copper # Logging # Agriculture
• Solomon Islands: # Gold # Logging # Agriculture
• Most Important – Its People, Culture & Tradition
# Remittances (Samoa|Tonga) # Traditional Social Safety Nets
# Culture & Dev. Financing
Financing Landscape
• Traditional Options:
• access to foreign capital (FDI and loans) and inflows of unrequited transfers (including
remittances and aid);
• build-up of domestic sources of finance ;
o mobilising domestic savings for private investment (US$3.5bn – Superannuation
Fund);
o private sector credit and financing;
o Inter-temporal transfer of potential economic growth through Sovereign Wealth
Fund (SWF) or Trust Fund (TF)
o generating/leveraging domestic financial resources
o (Lack of) Fiscal Space - debt to GDP ratios
• Generation of net foreign revenues
• Economic resilience (Disaster Insurance - PCRAFI, BoP Support, Regional Finance
Facility)
Financing Landscape
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Cook Is. Fiji FSM Kiribati RMI Palau PNG Samoa Sol. Is. Tonga Tuvalu Van.
National Debt (% GDP) (2001-2014)
Debt/GDP Avg.('01 -'04) Debt/GDP Avg.('05 -'09) Debt/GDP Avg.('10 -'14) Benchmark (40%)
Financing Landscape
13
-13
13
20
-15
11 11
-10
23
-3
-8
19
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Cook Is. Fiji FSM Kiribati RMI Palau PNG Samoa Sol. Is. Tonga Tuvalu Van.
Fiscal Space (% of GDP)
Fiscal Space Avg.('01 -'04) Fiscal Space Avg.('05 -'09)
Fiscal Space Avg.('10 -'14)
Financing Landscape
25 24 14 16 16 17 25 21 30 16 17 17
42
28
66
79
57
42
30
33
56
27
96
22
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Cook Is. Fiji FSM Kiribati RMI Palau PNG Samoa Sol. Is. Tonga Tuvalu Van.
Total Revenue and Grants & Tax (% of GDP)
(Avg. 2010-2014)
Tax/GDP Avg.('10 -'14) Rev. + Grants Avg.('10 -'14)
Financing Landscape
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
Fiji FSM Kiribati Palau PNG RMI Samoa Sol. Is. Tonga Tuvalu Vanuatu
Current Account Deficit (% of GDP)
Current Account Deficit % of GDP(Avg. 2001-2014) Current Account Deficit Excluding Grants % of GDP (Avg. 2001-2014)
Financing Priorities & Means
Priorities:
• Climate Change Adaptation Finance
• Climate Proofing of infrastructure
• Food security – erosion of coastlines and
salinaiton of arable land
• Loss & Damage – Climate Insurance/Trust
Fund
• Disaster Finance
• Risk Transfer to financial markets
• Management and investment in Preparedness
• Oceans Finance
• Rehabilitation coral reefs & Sustainable
livelihoods – coastal fisheries/tourism
• Increasing returns from the blue economy –
fisheries
• Green Economy Finance
• Financing of renewable energy
• Waste Management – opportunities for energy
generation
Means:
• Private Sector Participation & Partnership
• CC Projects
• Risk Sharing
• Gender Empowerment
• Untapped potential almost 50%
• Social Safety nets
• Cultural/traditional Safety Nets;
• Community resilience, eg. micro-insurance;
• Promote Global Income Sharing
• Remittances (addressing De-risking issues)
• Labour mobility
• Financial Innovation & Integration
• Financial Resilience
• Limiting pressure on fiscal space
• Reducing macroeconomic volatility
Financing Instruments
• SME Credit Guarantees
• Insurance for Risk Transfer
• Counter-Cyclical Options
• Contingent Credit Lines
• Diaspora Bonds
• GDP Indexed bonds
• Debt-for-nature swaps
• Financial tax
• Travel levy
• Social levy
Tax &
Non-Tax
(Levy)
Bonds
Guarantee
&
Risk
Transfers
Loans
Financing Enablers
• Public Financial Management
• Strengthens linakages and accountability & transparency
• National Budgeting Systems (Immediate/Short-term)
• National Plans – usually 5 years (Medium-term)
• SDGs 2030 (Long-term)
• Pacific:
• Forum Compact - Peer Review Process – Assessment of National Systems &
Development effectiveness (PIFS)
• DFAA – Gap Assessment and linkages to National Systems (UNDP)
• Integrated Financing Agenda
𝑫𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒍𝒐𝒑𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒕 𝑭𝒊𝒏𝒂𝒏𝒄𝒆 =
𝑓
𝐴𝑑𝑑𝑖𝑠 𝐴𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑎 = 𝑓(𝑃𝑢𝑏𝑙𝑖𝑐 𝐹𝐼𝑛𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 + 𝑂𝐷𝐴 + 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑣𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑙𝑜𝑐𝑎𝑙 + 𝐼𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑛𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝑓𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝐹𝑙𝑜𝑤𝑠 + 𝑇𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑒)
+
𝑆𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑖 𝐴𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑎 = 𝑓(𝐷𝑖𝑠𝑎𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝑃𝑟𝑒𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑑𝑛𝑒𝑠𝑠 + 𝑀𝑎𝑛𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 + 𝑅𝑖𝑠𝑘 𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑠𝑓𝑒𝑟)
+
𝐶𝑂𝑃𝐴𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑎 = 𝑓(𝐶𝑙𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝐶ℎ𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒 𝐴𝑑𝑎𝑝𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑀𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑔𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛)
SDGs & Development Financing
High
Financing
Cost
Coherence
Long-term
Low
Immediate
Policy
Implementation
(time lag)
Political Coherence &
Support
Incoherent
SDGs
2030
Regional
Plans
National
Plans
National Financing
Constraint
Regional Financing
Constraint
Global Financing
Constraint
Thank You.

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Financing the SDGs in the Pacific

  • 1. Financing the SDGs in the Pacific Dr. Raymond Prasad Economic Adviser Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat
  • 5. The Pacific Islands • The “Pacific” Economy • Large-ocean States oBlue Economy: # Fisheries – Tuna # Deep Sea Mining (Potential) # Coastal (Tourism) # Marine Protected Zones • Larger PICs (Land based Natural Resources) • PNG: # LNG # Gold # Copper # Logging # Agriculture • Fiji: # Water # Gold # Bauxite # Copper # Logging # Agriculture • Solomon Islands: # Gold # Logging # Agriculture • Most Important – Its People, Culture & Tradition # Remittances (Samoa|Tonga) # Traditional Social Safety Nets # Culture & Dev. Financing
  • 6. Financing Landscape • Traditional Options: • access to foreign capital (FDI and loans) and inflows of unrequited transfers (including remittances and aid); • build-up of domestic sources of finance ; o mobilising domestic savings for private investment (US$3.5bn – Superannuation Fund); o private sector credit and financing; o Inter-temporal transfer of potential economic growth through Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) or Trust Fund (TF) o generating/leveraging domestic financial resources o (Lack of) Fiscal Space - debt to GDP ratios • Generation of net foreign revenues • Economic resilience (Disaster Insurance - PCRAFI, BoP Support, Regional Finance Facility)
  • 7. Financing Landscape 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Cook Is. Fiji FSM Kiribati RMI Palau PNG Samoa Sol. Is. Tonga Tuvalu Van. National Debt (% GDP) (2001-2014) Debt/GDP Avg.('01 -'04) Debt/GDP Avg.('05 -'09) Debt/GDP Avg.('10 -'14) Benchmark (40%)
  • 8. Financing Landscape 13 -13 13 20 -15 11 11 -10 23 -3 -8 19 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 Cook Is. Fiji FSM Kiribati RMI Palau PNG Samoa Sol. Is. Tonga Tuvalu Van. Fiscal Space (% of GDP) Fiscal Space Avg.('01 -'04) Fiscal Space Avg.('05 -'09) Fiscal Space Avg.('10 -'14)
  • 9. Financing Landscape 25 24 14 16 16 17 25 21 30 16 17 17 42 28 66 79 57 42 30 33 56 27 96 22 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Cook Is. Fiji FSM Kiribati RMI Palau PNG Samoa Sol. Is. Tonga Tuvalu Van. Total Revenue and Grants & Tax (% of GDP) (Avg. 2010-2014) Tax/GDP Avg.('10 -'14) Rev. + Grants Avg.('10 -'14)
  • 10. Financing Landscape -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 Fiji FSM Kiribati Palau PNG RMI Samoa Sol. Is. Tonga Tuvalu Vanuatu Current Account Deficit (% of GDP) Current Account Deficit % of GDP(Avg. 2001-2014) Current Account Deficit Excluding Grants % of GDP (Avg. 2001-2014)
  • 11. Financing Priorities & Means Priorities: • Climate Change Adaptation Finance • Climate Proofing of infrastructure • Food security – erosion of coastlines and salinaiton of arable land • Loss & Damage – Climate Insurance/Trust Fund • Disaster Finance • Risk Transfer to financial markets • Management and investment in Preparedness • Oceans Finance • Rehabilitation coral reefs & Sustainable livelihoods – coastal fisheries/tourism • Increasing returns from the blue economy – fisheries • Green Economy Finance • Financing of renewable energy • Waste Management – opportunities for energy generation Means: • Private Sector Participation & Partnership • CC Projects • Risk Sharing • Gender Empowerment • Untapped potential almost 50% • Social Safety nets • Cultural/traditional Safety Nets; • Community resilience, eg. micro-insurance; • Promote Global Income Sharing • Remittances (addressing De-risking issues) • Labour mobility • Financial Innovation & Integration • Financial Resilience • Limiting pressure on fiscal space • Reducing macroeconomic volatility
  • 12. Financing Instruments • SME Credit Guarantees • Insurance for Risk Transfer • Counter-Cyclical Options • Contingent Credit Lines • Diaspora Bonds • GDP Indexed bonds • Debt-for-nature swaps • Financial tax • Travel levy • Social levy Tax & Non-Tax (Levy) Bonds Guarantee & Risk Transfers Loans
  • 13. Financing Enablers • Public Financial Management • Strengthens linakages and accountability & transparency • National Budgeting Systems (Immediate/Short-term) • National Plans – usually 5 years (Medium-term) • SDGs 2030 (Long-term) • Pacific: • Forum Compact - Peer Review Process – Assessment of National Systems & Development effectiveness (PIFS) • DFAA – Gap Assessment and linkages to National Systems (UNDP) • Integrated Financing Agenda 𝑫𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒍𝒐𝒑𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒕 𝑭𝒊𝒏𝒂𝒏𝒄𝒆 = 𝑓 𝐴𝑑𝑑𝑖𝑠 𝐴𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑎 = 𝑓(𝑃𝑢𝑏𝑙𝑖𝑐 𝐹𝐼𝑛𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 + 𝑂𝐷𝐴 + 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑣𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑙𝑜𝑐𝑎𝑙 + 𝐼𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑛𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝑓𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝐹𝑙𝑜𝑤𝑠 + 𝑇𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑒) + 𝑆𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑖 𝐴𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑎 = 𝑓(𝐷𝑖𝑠𝑎𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝑃𝑟𝑒𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑑𝑛𝑒𝑠𝑠 + 𝑀𝑎𝑛𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 + 𝑅𝑖𝑠𝑘 𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑠𝑓𝑒𝑟) + 𝐶𝑂𝑃𝐴𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑎 = 𝑓(𝐶𝑙𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝐶ℎ𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒 𝐴𝑑𝑎𝑝𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑀𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑔𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛)
  • 14. SDGs & Development Financing High Financing Cost Coherence Long-term Low Immediate Policy Implementation (time lag) Political Coherence & Support Incoherent SDGs 2030 Regional Plans National Plans National Financing Constraint Regional Financing Constraint Global Financing Constraint