This document summarizes a study examining voting behavior in European Parliament elections. It presents hypotheses that voter choices are driven by both sincere preferences regarding issues like European integration as well as protest motivations like dissatisfaction with national governments. Data from the 2009 European Election Study is used to test these hypotheses. The results show that both sincere and protest motivations influence vote switching and abstention between national and European elections. Additionally, contextual factors like the salience of European issues help determine the impact of these motivations. In upcoming 2014 elections, the study predicts that European issues will be more politically prominent and Euroskeptic parties may gain more support.

1. Checking In or Checking Out?
Parties, Issues, and Campaigns
in European Elections
Jae‐Jae Spoon
Department of Political Science
University of North Texas
Center for European Studies, UNC‐Chapel Hill, Sept. 20, 2013

2. European Parliament Overview
EPP‐36%
PES‐25%
ALDE‐11%
ECR‐7%
NGL‐4%
EFD‐4%
NI‐4%
G‐EFA‐8%
766 Seats

3. Voting in European Elections
Less is at stake (Reif and Schmitt 1980, 1984)
• Turnout is lower
• Smaller parties do better
• Government parties do worse, especially at the
midterm of the election cycle

4. Vote Choice in EP Elections
• Vote for same party (Partisan)
• Vote for a different party (Switcher)
• Don’t vote (Abstainer)

5. What determines vote choice in EP elections?
What is the role of
– Parties?
– Ideology?
– Government satisfaction?
– Media?

6. Figure 1. Motivating the European Voter

7. Hypotheses I
H1: The closer voters are to the position of their national
party on the left‐right dimension, the less likely they are
to switch or abstain in EP elections. (Sincere‐Domestic)
H2: The greater the dissatisfaction with government
performance, the more likely voters are to switch or
abstain in EP elections. (Protest‐Domestic)
H3: The larger the distance between voters and the position
of their national party on the European integration
dimension, the more likely they are to switch or abstain
in EP elections. (Sincere‐EU)

8. Hypotheses II
H4: The greater the dissatisfaction with the EU, the more
likely voters are to switch or abstain in EP elections.
(Protest‐EU)
H5: The more politicized the issue of European integration,
the greater the impact of the distance between voters and
parties on the EU dimension on the likelihood of switching
or abstaining in EP elections. (Sincere‐Politicization)
H6: The more politicized the issue of European integration,
the greater the impact of dissatisfaction with the EU on the
likelihood of switching or abstaining in EP elections.
(Protest‐Politicization)

9. Data and Methods
• 2009 European Election Study
• 2009 Media Study
DV: Partisan, Switcher, Abstainer
IV‐Individual: Distance between voter’s position and party
on left‐right and EU dimensions, government approval,
EU satisfaction, partisanship, political awareness,
education, gender, age (controls)
IV‐Context: Party size, polarization of EU integration,
campaign tone, midterm election, new democracy,
compulsory voting (controls)
 Multi‐level model with random effects

10. Table 2. Predicted Probabilities of Direct Effects of Motivations
Sincere
Sincere
Sincere
Sincere
Protest
Protest
Protest
Protest

11. Figure 2. Marginal Effect of EU Distance across EU Politicization
‐0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.5 1 1.5 2
d(Abstaining)/d(EU Distance)
EU Party Polarization
‐0.2
‐0.1
0
0.1
0.2
‐0.15 ‐0.05 0.05 0.15
d(Abstaining)/d(EU Distance)
EU Tone
‐0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.5 1 1.5 2
d(Switching)/d(EU Distance)
EU Party Polarization
‐0.2
‐0.1
0
0.1
0.2
‐0.15 ‐0.05 0.05 0.15
d(Switching)/d(EU Distance)
EU Tone

12. ‐0.5
‐0.4
‐0.3
‐0.2
‐0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.5 1 1.5 2
EU Party Polarization
d(Abstaining)/d(EUSatisfaction)
‐0.4
‐0.3
‐0.2
‐0.1
0
‐0.1 ‐0.05 0 0.05
EU Tone
d(Abstaining/d(EU Satisfaction)
Figure 3. Marginal Effect of EU Satisfaction across EU Politicization

13. Summary of Findings
• Both sincere and protest motivations drive changes in
vote choice between first‐ and second‐order elections.
• Motivations are mediated by context‐level factors.
• Parties are crucial in shaping choices in EU elections.

14. What Can We Expect in the 2014 Elections?
• Europe matters
• Politicization of Europe
• Increased turnout
• Support for Euroskeptic parties