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Cost & Schedule Risk Assessment
Using @Risk 6.0
Timothy J. Havranek, MBA, PMP
Leigh Hostetter, PMP
24 October 2012
What If?
2
In Business and in Life:
We always made the
best possible decisions,
and
Implemented those
decisions in the most
efficient manner
Rank projects based on risks and opportunities
Develop optimum project strategies
Transform optimum project strategies into tactical plans
Track project implementation; provide early warning of
variances
Develop meaningful dashboards and increase transparency
Forecast project completion dates and costs
Improve portfolio performance metrics
Identify portfolio cost and schedule drivers
Capture lessons learned to inform future planning
Manage project and portfolio risks
BSRM Helps Clients
Business Solutions & Risk Management Services
Project Management
Consulting
Multi-Criteria
Decision Analysis
Cost & Schedule
Risk Analysis
Portfolio Risk
Ranking
Project Controls
Earned Value
Analysis
Business
Analytics
PM Information
Systems
Project
Dash Boards
Probabilistic
Cost Estimation
Process &
Tools for
Reducing
Costs and
Increasing
Profits
The Project Management Process
15/02/2017
Why does project management methodology matter?
15/02/2017
Varying versions exist but cartoon seems to have been documented first in John Oakland's book Total Quality Management.
Project Planning and Control
15/02/2017
Develop Work
Breakdown Structure
Define resources, costs,
and durations
Schedule work packages
using network logic
Team consensus on
baseline cost-loaded
schedule
Plan
Track progress against
the baseline
Analyze Earned Value
metrics
Corrective action and
change management
Do – Check – Assess
The Work Breakdown Structure (WBS)
A deliverables-oriented decomposition of the work to be
executed by the project team to accomplish project objectives
and create the desired deliverables with each descending level
representing an increasingly detailed definition of the project
work
Deliverable: Any measurable, tangible or verifiable item that
must be produced to complete a project
In Practical Terms
 The WBS is what to deliver
 It is a fundamental tool to properly manage
the project scope
Common language for all team members
Defines and outlines scope
Work Breakdown Structure
15/02/2017
Site
Project CProject BProject A
ExcavationDewateringSite Prep Restoration
Site Controls
Setup
Build Access
Road
Remove and
Stockpile OB
Build Decon
Pad
 Determine the Resources and Quantity of Resources Required
for Work Packages
 Estimate the Cost of Work Packages
 Estimate the Duration of Work Packages
Plan Resources and Estimate Cost and Duration
 Shows how changes in one task impact other tasks
 Facilitates scheduling (and rescheduling) of people and equipment
 Promotes analysis of tradeoffs and potential corrective action
Assign Network Logic
How is this project doing?
15/02/2017
Planned Cost
Actual Cost
Current Time
TIME
COST
Management Reserve
Earned Value Curve
15/02/2017
Planned Value
BAC
Actual Cost
Schedule Variance
Cost Variance
EAC
Current Time Planned
Completion
Date
Estimated
Completion
Date
TIME
COST
Earned Value
Earned value metric calculations provide holistic
understanding of project progress
Earned Value Analysis
*Source: Modified from Practice Standard for Earned Value Management 2005
Early warning system
• Early corrective action – cost/schedule variance correction
• Scope management – change orders for new scope
Scheduling Best Practices
15/02/2017
General Process for Developing Work Breakdown
Structures
15/02/2017
WBS Best Practices
15/02/2017
 The names of the WBS elements should be easy to understand and
convey meaning to all project participants and stakeholders
 The work packages should account for 2 to 10% of the total project
budget (exceptions can occur for very large or very small projects)
 Activities or should not have durations beyond two project reporting
periods
 Do not use the same task heading for activities performed by two
separately responsible groups
 Include task and/or work packages in the WBS for work that will
performed outside parties, even if they do not involve a cost
(regulatory review, peer assists)
 Break down items such as permits, regularly scheduled field events
and reports into their component activities
 Whenever possible obtain estimates from individuals who have
performed similar activities in past
 Have people who are responsible for performing a given task
provide duration estimates
 Make all estimates realistic. It is best to consider most likely
amount of time needed, without a pessimistic or optimistic view
 In general assume a normal workweek and normal workday
 Use days as the time unit
 Be willing to breakdown into smaller WBS elements if there is
difficulty in estimating the duration of a particular activity
 Do not assume that office workers will have 8 hours of
uninterrupted time. Assume that office workers are 70%
productive and adjust durations accordingly
Duration Estimating Best Practices
15/02/2017
 Do not link Summary Tasks
 PM and Oversight tasks
 Start when project starts and finishes when the last activity finishes
 Set Constraints as little as possible
Instead, consider using Deadlines as they do not directly affect project
scheduling dates
For risk modeling you should not have any “must start” , “must finish or
similar constraints
 Maximize concurrency whenever possible
 Multiple finish to start activities off a given milestone
Use of start to start logic connectors
 Minimize discretionary dependencies
Network Scheduling Best Practices
15/02/2017
Case Study
15/02/2017
Site Background Information
 Former specialty petroleum manufacturing facility
 Objective to prepare site for sale and use as mixed
commercial / residential redevelopment
 Project scope of work includes
 Removing and properly disposing of asbestos and regulated wastes from
manufacturing plant
 Demolishing the building structure
 Excavating and properly disposing of soil having concentrations above
residential standards
 Dewatering during excavation and discharging water to a publically owned
treatment works
 Obtaining all necessary permits prior to performing field activities
 Business plan called for completing project by September
30, 2011 at cost of $4.6 million
Risk Elements included in Model Structure
 Probabilistic cost and duration input parameters
 Probabilistic resource assignments (i.e. employs
RiskProjectResouceUse function) and resource unit prices
 Durations for Level of effort or “hammock task” such as
project management or driven by the uncertain duration
of other tasks and network logic
 Project risk register to address low probability high impact
events (i.e., makes use of RiskProjectAddDelay function)
General Notes on Environmental Remediation Projects
 Notorious for going over budget and schedule
 One of the largest uncertainties is always associated with
the volume of impacted material (soil, sediments) that
must be addressed
 Another large source of uncertainty is permitting and
regulatory approvals.
 The percentage of cost for project management higher
than in other construction industries
 Project carrying costs can be high
Model Demonstration and Results
15/02/2017
Model Cost Results
15/02/2017
Statistic Cost Duration Fnish Date
Minimum $4,220,738 123 days 8/29/2011
Maximum $6,293,115 388 days 9/13/2012
Mean $4,831,976 161 days 10/23/2011
Std Deviation $253,967 29 days 42 Days
Mode $4,459,579 150 days 10/6/2011
10% Perc $4,564,216 138 days 9/20/2011
25% Perc $4,660,188 145 days 9/29/2011
50% Perc $4,789,165 153 days 10/11/2011
75% Perc $4,948,141 165 days 10/27/2011
90% Perc $5,159,512 200 days 12/19/2011
Greenville Site Demolition and Remediation Cost
15/02/2017
Greenville Site Finish Date
15/02/2017
Cost Tornado Diagram
15/02/2017
Greenville Probabilistic Planned Value Box Plot
15/02/2017
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Mar-2011
Apr-2011
May-2011
Jun-2011
Jul-2011
Aug-2011
Sep-2011
Oct-2011
Nov-2011
Dec-2011
Jan-2012
Feb-2012
Mar-2012
CumulativeCost$Million
Maximum
80 Perc%
Mean
20 Perc%
Minimum
Trend Data for Probabilistic Earned Value Analysis
15/02/2017
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
CumulativeCost
Deterministic
Minimum
20 Perc%
Mean
80 Perc%
Maximum
Actual Results
 Project was completed for a cost of $ 4.9 Million and in
May of 2012
 Soil volume was 20% greater than planned
 The selected contractor had an injury even at another site
which created a stop work order at this site
Summary Cost Schedule Risk Analysis
 Powerful tool for communicating potential cost and
schedule outcomes
 Enhances ability to identify and manage cost and schedule
drivers
 Simplifies estimating cost trends and improves net
present value analysis
 Opens the door for probabilistic earned value analysis –
control chart approach
 CSRA should remain dynamic and re-visited throughout
project life cycle

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CSRA Havranek Hostetter Palisade 2012

  • 1. Cost & Schedule Risk Assessment Using @Risk 6.0 Timothy J. Havranek, MBA, PMP Leigh Hostetter, PMP 24 October 2012
  • 2. What If? 2 In Business and in Life: We always made the best possible decisions, and Implemented those decisions in the most efficient manner
  • 3. Rank projects based on risks and opportunities Develop optimum project strategies Transform optimum project strategies into tactical plans Track project implementation; provide early warning of variances Develop meaningful dashboards and increase transparency Forecast project completion dates and costs Improve portfolio performance metrics Identify portfolio cost and schedule drivers Capture lessons learned to inform future planning Manage project and portfolio risks BSRM Helps Clients
  • 4. Business Solutions & Risk Management Services Project Management Consulting Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Cost & Schedule Risk Analysis Portfolio Risk Ranking Project Controls Earned Value Analysis Business Analytics PM Information Systems Project Dash Boards Probabilistic Cost Estimation Process & Tools for Reducing Costs and Increasing Profits
  • 5. The Project Management Process 15/02/2017
  • 6. Why does project management methodology matter? 15/02/2017 Varying versions exist but cartoon seems to have been documented first in John Oakland's book Total Quality Management.
  • 7. Project Planning and Control 15/02/2017 Develop Work Breakdown Structure Define resources, costs, and durations Schedule work packages using network logic Team consensus on baseline cost-loaded schedule Plan Track progress against the baseline Analyze Earned Value metrics Corrective action and change management Do – Check – Assess
  • 8. The Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) A deliverables-oriented decomposition of the work to be executed by the project team to accomplish project objectives and create the desired deliverables with each descending level representing an increasingly detailed definition of the project work Deliverable: Any measurable, tangible or verifiable item that must be produced to complete a project In Practical Terms  The WBS is what to deliver  It is a fundamental tool to properly manage the project scope
  • 9. Common language for all team members Defines and outlines scope Work Breakdown Structure 15/02/2017 Site Project CProject BProject A ExcavationDewateringSite Prep Restoration Site Controls Setup Build Access Road Remove and Stockpile OB Build Decon Pad
  • 10.  Determine the Resources and Quantity of Resources Required for Work Packages  Estimate the Cost of Work Packages  Estimate the Duration of Work Packages Plan Resources and Estimate Cost and Duration
  • 11.  Shows how changes in one task impact other tasks  Facilitates scheduling (and rescheduling) of people and equipment  Promotes analysis of tradeoffs and potential corrective action Assign Network Logic
  • 12. How is this project doing? 15/02/2017 Planned Cost Actual Cost Current Time TIME COST
  • 13. Management Reserve Earned Value Curve 15/02/2017 Planned Value BAC Actual Cost Schedule Variance Cost Variance EAC Current Time Planned Completion Date Estimated Completion Date TIME COST Earned Value
  • 14. Earned value metric calculations provide holistic understanding of project progress
  • 15. Earned Value Analysis *Source: Modified from Practice Standard for Earned Value Management 2005 Early warning system • Early corrective action – cost/schedule variance correction • Scope management – change orders for new scope
  • 17. General Process for Developing Work Breakdown Structures 15/02/2017
  • 18. WBS Best Practices 15/02/2017  The names of the WBS elements should be easy to understand and convey meaning to all project participants and stakeholders  The work packages should account for 2 to 10% of the total project budget (exceptions can occur for very large or very small projects)  Activities or should not have durations beyond two project reporting periods  Do not use the same task heading for activities performed by two separately responsible groups  Include task and/or work packages in the WBS for work that will performed outside parties, even if they do not involve a cost (regulatory review, peer assists)  Break down items such as permits, regularly scheduled field events and reports into their component activities
  • 19.  Whenever possible obtain estimates from individuals who have performed similar activities in past  Have people who are responsible for performing a given task provide duration estimates  Make all estimates realistic. It is best to consider most likely amount of time needed, without a pessimistic or optimistic view  In general assume a normal workweek and normal workday  Use days as the time unit  Be willing to breakdown into smaller WBS elements if there is difficulty in estimating the duration of a particular activity  Do not assume that office workers will have 8 hours of uninterrupted time. Assume that office workers are 70% productive and adjust durations accordingly Duration Estimating Best Practices 15/02/2017
  • 20.  Do not link Summary Tasks  PM and Oversight tasks  Start when project starts and finishes when the last activity finishes  Set Constraints as little as possible Instead, consider using Deadlines as they do not directly affect project scheduling dates For risk modeling you should not have any “must start” , “must finish or similar constraints  Maximize concurrency whenever possible  Multiple finish to start activities off a given milestone Use of start to start logic connectors  Minimize discretionary dependencies Network Scheduling Best Practices 15/02/2017
  • 22. Site Background Information  Former specialty petroleum manufacturing facility  Objective to prepare site for sale and use as mixed commercial / residential redevelopment  Project scope of work includes  Removing and properly disposing of asbestos and regulated wastes from manufacturing plant  Demolishing the building structure  Excavating and properly disposing of soil having concentrations above residential standards  Dewatering during excavation and discharging water to a publically owned treatment works  Obtaining all necessary permits prior to performing field activities  Business plan called for completing project by September 30, 2011 at cost of $4.6 million
  • 23. Risk Elements included in Model Structure  Probabilistic cost and duration input parameters  Probabilistic resource assignments (i.e. employs RiskProjectResouceUse function) and resource unit prices  Durations for Level of effort or “hammock task” such as project management or driven by the uncertain duration of other tasks and network logic  Project risk register to address low probability high impact events (i.e., makes use of RiskProjectAddDelay function)
  • 24. General Notes on Environmental Remediation Projects  Notorious for going over budget and schedule  One of the largest uncertainties is always associated with the volume of impacted material (soil, sediments) that must be addressed  Another large source of uncertainty is permitting and regulatory approvals.  The percentage of cost for project management higher than in other construction industries  Project carrying costs can be high
  • 25. Model Demonstration and Results 15/02/2017
  • 26. Model Cost Results 15/02/2017 Statistic Cost Duration Fnish Date Minimum $4,220,738 123 days 8/29/2011 Maximum $6,293,115 388 days 9/13/2012 Mean $4,831,976 161 days 10/23/2011 Std Deviation $253,967 29 days 42 Days Mode $4,459,579 150 days 10/6/2011 10% Perc $4,564,216 138 days 9/20/2011 25% Perc $4,660,188 145 days 9/29/2011 50% Perc $4,789,165 153 days 10/11/2011 75% Perc $4,948,141 165 days 10/27/2011 90% Perc $5,159,512 200 days 12/19/2011
  • 27. Greenville Site Demolition and Remediation Cost 15/02/2017
  • 28. Greenville Site Finish Date 15/02/2017
  • 30. Greenville Probabilistic Planned Value Box Plot 15/02/2017 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 Mar-2011 Apr-2011 May-2011 Jun-2011 Jul-2011 Aug-2011 Sep-2011 Oct-2011 Nov-2011 Dec-2011 Jan-2012 Feb-2012 Mar-2012 CumulativeCost$Million Maximum 80 Perc% Mean 20 Perc% Minimum
  • 31. Trend Data for Probabilistic Earned Value Analysis 15/02/2017 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 CumulativeCost Deterministic Minimum 20 Perc% Mean 80 Perc% Maximum
  • 32. Actual Results  Project was completed for a cost of $ 4.9 Million and in May of 2012  Soil volume was 20% greater than planned  The selected contractor had an injury even at another site which created a stop work order at this site
  • 33. Summary Cost Schedule Risk Analysis  Powerful tool for communicating potential cost and schedule outcomes  Enhances ability to identify and manage cost and schedule drivers  Simplifies estimating cost trends and improves net present value analysis  Opens the door for probabilistic earned value analysis – control chart approach  CSRA should remain dynamic and re-visited throughout project life cycle