3. As we know, there are “known knowns,” there are
things we know we know. We also know there are
“known unknowns,” that is to say we know there
are things we do not know. But there are also
“unknown unknowns,” the ones we don’t know we
don’t know. And if you look throughout the history
of our country and other free countries, it is the
latter category that tends to be the difficult ones."
4. #onetime@AgileCamp
Origins: Developed at IBM by Dave Snowden and Cynthia
Kurtz in the late 1990s and early 2000s.
Background: A Welsh word describing the relationship
between a community and its shared history, enabling it to
adapt instinctively and intuitively to conditions of
profound uncertainty.
Usage: A decision-making/sense-making framework that
encourages us to understand situations before we react to
them.
7. #onetime@AgileCamp
The Challenge
Sort the bricks into colors, as quickly as possible.
Create one heap for all special pieces.
Decide in your team which pieces you want to treat as special.
8. KNOWN KNOWNS
How much time did you need for
planning?
How was the communication?
How many leaders/followers were in
your team?
9. KNOWN KNOWNS
How much time did you need for
planning?
How was the communication?
How many leaders/followers were in
your team?
Complicated
Obvious
Sense
Categorize
Respond
Chaos
Complex
10. #onetime@AgileCamp
KNOWN UNKNOWNS
The Challenge
Build a structure, as quickly as possible, according to the following rules:
At least 20 bricks high
Regular color pattern
Every new block that you add to the structure can’t be bigger than the one below it
11. KNOWN UNKNOWNS
What felt different compared to the
simple problem?
How much time did you need for
planning?
How was the communication?
How many leaders/followers were in
your team?
12. KNOWN UNKNOWNS
What felt different compared to the
simple problem?
How much time did you need for
planning?
How was the communication?
How many leaders/followers were in
your team?
Complicated
Sense
Analyze
Respond
Obvious
Sense
Categorize
Respond
Chaos
Complex
13. #onetime@AgileCamp
UNKNOWN KNOWNS
The Challenge
Decide in 30 seconds to build either an animal or a vehicle. After that you work
according to the following rules:
Create a regular color pattern.
Each color of bricks must only be touched by one person in your team.
You are not allowed to talk.
Every minute, you need to switch tables, taking your unfinished work with you (but not the
material).
14. #onetime@AgileCamp
UNKNOWN KNOWNS
What felt different compared to the simple/complicated problem?
How was the communication? How many leaders/followers were in your team?
What kind of feedback did you have to guide you towards a solution?
Would it have made a difference if you had had five minutes to talk and plan before
you started building?
15. UNKNOWN KNOWNS
What felt different compared to the
simple/complicated problem?
How was the communication? How
many leaders/followers were in your
team?
What kind of feedback did you have
to guide you towards a solution?
Would it have made a difference if
you had had five minutes to talk and
plan before you started building?
Complicated
Sense
Analyze
Respond
Obvious
Sense
Categorize
Respond
Chaos
Complex
Probe
Sense
Respond
16. #onetime@AgileCamp
UNKNOWN UNKNOWNS
The Challenge
Your task is similar to the last one,
Decide in 30 seconds to create a building or a robot. After that you work according to
the following rules:
Create a regular color pattern.
Each color of bricks must only be touched by one person in your team.
You are not allowed to talk.
At random times, a team member’s shoulder will be tapped to be moved immediately to
another table.
17. UNKNOWN UNKNOWNS
What felt different compared to the
complex problem/situation?
How was the communication?
How many leaders/followers were in
your team?
How did it feel to loose a team
member or join another team?
Why does this small change make
such a big difference?
18. UNKNOWN UNKNOWNS
What felt different compared to the
complex problem/situation?
How was the communication?
How many leaders/followers were in
your team?
How did it feel to loose a team
member or join another team?
Why does this small change make
such a big difference?
Complicated
Sense
Analyze
Respond
Obvious
Sense
Categorize
Respond
Chaos
Act
Sense
Respond
Complex
Probe
Sense
Respond
21. #onetime@AgileCamp
Often times we manage using common
approaches that worked well for us in the past.
- but -
Different problems warrant different solutions.
As you develop professionally, the problems you face will
become more complex.
Before reacting to problems, take a minute to examine
what you know and don’t know, before leaping into fix
everything
22. Cynefin Lego Game
• https://www.agile42.com/en/training/cynefin-lego-game/
• Thanks to agile42 for sharing this great exercise
Understanding the Cynefin framework – a basic intro
• http://www.everydaykanban.com/2013/09/29/understanding-the-
cynefin-framework/
• A nice high-level review of Cynefin from the Everyday Kanban Blog
Dave Snowden’s (Incredible) Blog
• http://cognitive-edge.com/blog/author/dave-snowden/
A simple explanation of the Cynefin Framework
• http://www.anecdote.com/2009/04/a-simple-explanation-cynefin-
framework/
• A brief video introduction to Cynefin, recommended by Dave
Snowden
Wikipedia’s (Well Maintained) Entry for Cynefin
Framework
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cynefin_framework
Keil Wilson
Enterprise Applications Architect at
Nelnet and agileLNK Co-Organizer
since 2015
jkeilwilson@gmail.com
@keilwilson on Twitter
www.linkedin.com/in/keilwilson
https://www.meetup.com/agileLNK
https://pmlnk.wordpress.com/
Editor's Notes
Used by DARPA, NASA and the DOD for over 20 years.
Made up of FIVE domains. Will cover in more detail during the exercise.
This is a simple problem you’ve probably encountered before and know how to fix, like a common data entry error.
Sense – Clearly identify the problem.
Categorize – Decide which process to use to fix the problem.
Respond – Fix the problem.
This is a request for a change to a report. You have a process, but need some questions answered to complete it.
1. Sense – Clearly identify and understand the problem.
2. Analyze – Gather the information you need to follow the plan.
3. Respond – Execute the plan.
This is new software development or an enterprise-wide software system upgrade. You know you can execute, but need to develop requirements and a plan first.
Probe – Experiment to define the problem.
Sense – Understand the problem.
Respond – Plan the next steps to break the problem into less complex pieces that can be analyzed.
This is, the server room is on fire. You don’t start analyzing how the fire started. You don’t start probing whether a pitcher of water or a fire extinguisher will work best. You pull the fire alarm!
Act – Put out the fire.
Sense – What caused the fire?
Respond – Here’s how we prevent future fires.
Blurred edges are intentional.
<CLICK> As knowledge grows about a problem, solutions become more obvious.
<CLICK> The converse can happen, though. Attrition or atrophy are key culprits.
I just want to relay this history. The framework is under continuous improvement in order to make it easier to understand.