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Statistics in the Newsroom
(Part Deux)

Steven Rich
The Washington Post
@dataeditor
P-values
•Statistical significance
•Probability
•Significance levels
–.05
–.01

•Observed result no impossible
–Just highly unlikely
T-tests
•The t-test is used to test hypotheses about
means when the population variance is
unknown (the usual case).
•Developed by Gossett for the quality control of
beer.
•Comes in 3 varieties:
•Single sample, independent samples, and
dependent samples.
T-tests
•Single sample t – we have only 1 group; want to
test against a hypothetical mean.
•Independent samples t – we have 2 means, 2
groups; no relation between groups, e.g., people
randomly assigned to a single group.
•Dependent t – we have two means. Either
same people in both groups, or people are
related, e.g., husband-wife, left hand-right hand,
hospital patient and visitor.
ANOVA
•Collection of methods
•Analyze differences between group means
•Generalizes the T-test to more than two groups
•Within vs. Between groups
ANOVA
Fisher’s Exact Test
Fisher’s Exact Test
•Gives exact P-value
•Great for categorical data
•Great for small sample sizes
Linear Regression
y=mx+b
•x – independent variable
•y – dependent variable
•m – slope
•b – y intercept
R-Square
R-Square tells you how much the IV predicts the DV

86.5 percent of the variation in hat size is
explained by arrival order
Logistic Regression
•Your variable isn’t always continuous
•Gender
•Race
•“Binary” data
Pearson’s Chi-Squared
•Osbserved vs. Expected
•Example: Tax lien auctions in DC
•Determine what a “regular” auction might look
like
–Consulted experts
–Looked at collusive and non-collusive auctions in
other jurisdictions
Regular
Irregular
What to do?
•We felt it would be lazy to just describe the
patterns
•We wanted to look how frequently the irregular
patterns occurred between bidders
•Leader vs. Follower analysis
•Pearson’s Chi-Squared Test
Results
How to avoid mistakes
•Try to prove yourself wrong
•Run it by your targets
•Ask someone smarter than you
•Make sure you’re doing the correct test
http://www.ats.ucla.edu/stat/sas/whatstat/
Questions?
Rob Barry
Wall Street Journal
@rob_barry
Steven Rich
The Washington Post
@dataeditor

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