First webinar of the series: Measuring people's perceptions, evaluations and experiences, 22 September 2020, More information at: http://www.oecd.org/statistics/lac-well-being-metrics.htm

1. 1
Unequal Hopes, Lives, and Lifespans:
Lessons from the New Science of Well-Being in the Era of COVID-19
OECD Webinar on Measuring Perceptions, Emotions, and Experiences
September 22, 2020
Carol Graham, The Brookings Institution

2. 2
New Metrics for Looking at Inequality of Outlooks and Outcomes (and the COVID shock)
• The pursuit of happiness is not about contentment but opportunities to seek fulfilling
lives; combines individual freedom and social fairness. That pursuit is NOT equally
available to all citizens in the U.S. today
• Research explores why increasingly unequal distributions of income, well-being, and
hope matter – and are important to the future of capitalism in rich and poor countries;
focus on inequality in well-being and deaths of despair in the US
• Exponential challenge posed by COVID; those who already disadvantaged and
vulnerable hardest hit by COVID. In addition to virus, the employment and mental
health shocks could lead to 75,000 more despair related deaths in the next year
• Well-being metrics tell us much that income metrics do not, and in many cases can
serve as warning indicators before we have crises of mortality.

3. 3
Quick note: the method and the patterns
• Econometric equations: Wit = α + βxit + εit
• W is the reported well-being of individual i at time t, and X is a vector of demographic and socio-
economic characteristics. Unobserved traits are captured in the error term
• Remarkably consistent patterns in determinants of life satisfaction around the world ( e.g. income, age**,
health, employment, social relationships, marriage)
• Can then explore “happiness” effects of things that vary or change more, such as inflation and
unemployment rates, inequality, environmental quality, commuting, and smoking/exercise
• Do not ask people if these things make them un/happy

4. 4
Consistent Patterns around the World – Happiness, Age, and Despair?

5. 5
Inequality of Well-being - Stress in the USA vs LAC
0.20
0.28
0.35
0.43
0.50
1 Poorest 2 Second 3 Middle 4 Fourth 5 Richest
ExperiencedStressYesterday
(1=Yes,0=No)
Within Country Household Income Quintile
LAC USA
USA difference: -0.06
LAC difference: -0.04

6. 6
Belief in Hard Work – USA vs LAC
0.80
0.95
1 Poorest 2 Second 3 Middle 4 Fourth 5 Richest
HardWorkGetsYouAhead
(1=Yes,0=No)
Within Country Household Income Quintile
LAC USA
USA difference: 0.08
LAC difference: 0.004

7. 7
More to the Story – Racial Differences: Poor Blacks Optimistic about the Future, Poor
Whites Desperate

8. Mortality Rise in the United States
Fig. 1. All-cause mortality,
ages 45–54 for US White
non-Hispanics (USW),
US Hispanics (USH), and
six comparison countries.
Source: Case & Deaton (2015).

9. 9
Deaths of Despair: Differences across Race and Place
• Individual level: MSA level CDC composite death rate for 35-64 year olds
negatively correlated with life satisfaction/future life satisfaction and positively
correlated with stress and worry (two way causality?)
• Average level MSA trends: focus on role of place and health behaviors, such as
smoking and exercising. Places with higher levels of well-being (and lower
premature mortality rates) have healthier behaviors across the board.
• Racial diversity as a characteristic of place: the share of blacks and Hispanics is
positively correlated with life satisfaction and optimism and negatively with stress
• Places with these same traits more economically vibrant, lower mortality rates
• New interactive indicator – users can explore these patterns themselves:
https://www.brookings.edu/interactives/wellbeing-interactive/

10. The Geography of Desperation – PLACE Matters

11. The Role of Place – We Still Have Much to Learn

12. Hope, Resilience, and Better Lives
• Survey of poor young adults in Lima. Eighty-five percent of our respondents aspire to college or post-graduate education
(though NONE of their parents have attended college); high aspirations linked to lower discount rates, fewer risky behaviors
Over 95% of those in high aspirations category experienced one or more negative shocks in the past. Resilience?
• Fielding in poor African American neighborhoods in St. Louis and poor white former manufacturing neighborhoods across
the river; initial results – poor AA respondents more likely to pursue college, conditional on graduation rates;
• Remarkable new findings: African Americans, despite highest incidence of COVID, report more hope for the future and
better mental health in April-May 2020 than do whites. Resilience indeed!
• LONGEVITY – O’Connor and Graham/US PSID – optimists live longer! Less than college educated white males drop in
optimism in the late 1970’s – long before deaths of despair
• Can we restore hope and resilience? Difficult – but perhaps COVID crisis can shift parameters to focus on well-being?

13. The COVID Shock and the Future
• COVID in U.S. an exponential shock to an already divided system with deep vulnerabilities; weak safety nets,
unequal access to health/mental health care; insurance often tied to jobs, so unemployment a double shock; some
similarities with LAC but higher levels of hope/resilience
• Unemployment rates up to app 20%; gun purchases, drug overdoses, and suicide calls have increased; the same
cohorts and places vulnerable to deaths of despair – low skilled workers – either poor urban blacks or poor
suburban/rural whites – also most vulnerable to COVID (higher incidence in urban areas, but higher mortality likely
in rural ones, conditional on incidence due to pre-existing health conditions and shortage of rural hospitals
• Major increase in well-being inequality with COVID. March 2020 – 64% percent of low-income respondents
reported worry the day before vs 60% of high-income ones; average in 2017 for worry was 41% low income vs
28% high income; Other March 2020 markers: sadness (45 for poor versus 28%), loneliness (48 vs 18%)
• Addressing well-being and economic challenges simultaneously is critical going forward. We need to restore well-
being – and in particular hope – or it will be difficult to restore economies world-wide