Kan oljeprissjokk knekke det norske boligmarkedet? Bernt Chr. Brun 13. juni 2013.

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Kan et oljeprissjokk knekke boligmarkedet ?
13 juni 2013
Bernt Chr. Brun
Head of Research / Chief Strategist
+47 23139190
bbru@danskebank.com

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Agenda
1. Motivering av problemstillingen
2. Resultater fra kjøringene
3. Hvor kan SSB’s modell svikte?

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1. Motivering: Norske boligpriser har steget mye
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1819
1827
1835
1843
1851
1859
1867
1875
1883
1891
1899
1907
1915
1923
1931
1939
1947
1955
1963
1971
1979
1987
1995
2003
2011
Realboligprisindeks 1819 - 2012Realboligprisindeks 1819 - 2012
Kilde: Norges Bank, Ola Grytten NHH

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Norsk boligprisvekst: alene på toppen

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Norges gode inntektsutvikling kan forklare høye
boligpriser
Disponibel inntekt per cap Boligpris/disponibel inntekt per cap

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Hva skyldes Norges gode inntektsutvikling, og hva om
våre særskilte fortrinn forsvinner?
• Et oljeprisfall ved en ny ”krise” ala 2008
• Mindre petroleum i Norge, og mer av det vi har er gass
• Skifergass i USA – USA som netto eksportør av gass i 2020
• Kina’s vekst kan avta
• Klimaproblemer kan gjøre fossilt brensel mindre verdifullt
• 50 USD fatet er ikke en forventet oljepris, men absolutt et relevant
risikoscenario
• Et tilleggsscenario med raskere normalisering av renter er også
relevant

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2. Resultater. Først SSB’s boligmodell ”for dummies”:
• En helt ny modell hvor en benytter moderne tidsserieøkonometri
(Jansen/Anundsen)
• Langsiktig likevektspris for boliger som bestemmes av;
− Husholdningenes bruttogjeld (koeffisient 1)
− Husholdningenes disponible inntekt (koeffisient 1,7)
− Boligkapital (koeffisient -3)
− Realrente etter skatt - indirekte gjennom bruttogjelden
• Kortsiktige prisendringer bestemmes av;
− Prisavvik fra den langsiktige likevekt (koeffisient -0,175 – halveringstid 3,6 år)
− Siste års endring i boligpris (momentum effekt)
− Endringer i en ”forventningsindikator”
− Boligomsetning (negativt fortegn)
− Årstid (kvartalsdummyer)
• Boligtilbudet (boligkapitalen) vil avhenge av pris på bruktboliger i forhold til
investeringsprisen på bolig, samt avskrivning

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Scenario 1:
Oljepris til 50$/brl, nær halverte oljeinvesteringer
100
50
Oljepris Oljeinvesteringer

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Scenario 2: Som 1, men ”forventningsvariabelen” faller
også

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Scenario 1 & 2; Resultater
-
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
2013 2014 2015 2016
Referansebane Driftsbalanse
Referansebane Overskudd off forv
Scenario 1 Driftsbalanse
Scenario 1 Overskudd off forv
Scenario 2 Driftsbalanse
Scenario 2 Overskudd off forv
-72%
-80%
Overskudd off forvaltning
Driftsbalanse
Mill NOK
-1 %
0 %
1 %
2 %
3 %
4 %
5 %
BNPVekst
BNPVekst
BNPVekst
RDIVekst
RDIVekst
RDIVekst
Boligprisvekst%
Boligprisvekst%
Boligprisvekst%
Ref Scen
1
Scen
2
Ref Scen
1
Scen
2
Ref Scen
1
Scen
2
2014
2015
2016

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Scenario 1 & 2;
Reduserte forventninger nesten like viktig som oljepris og
investeringer
10,96 %
6,34 %
2,14 %
0 %
2 %
4 %
6 %
8 %
10 %
12 %
Referansebane Scenario 1; Fall i
oljepris, inv
Scenario 2; fall i
oljepris, inv, forventning
-4,2%
Nominell boligprisvekst 2013-16
-4,62%

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Hva om vi i tillegg normaliserer rentene?
0 %
1 %
2 %
3 %
4 %
5 %
6 %
7 %
8 %
2013 2014 2015 2016
Referansebane Renter ute Referansebane Norsk utlånsrente
Scenario 3 Renter ute Scenario 3 Norsk utlånsrente
Scenario 4 Norsk utlånsrente
Scenario 3: raskere økning av rentene ute
Scenario 4: 0,5% økt rentemargin for norske banker

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-15 %
-10 %
-5 %
0 %
5 %
10 %
15 %
Referansebane Scen 1: Oljepris,
inv ned
Scen 2: OP, OI,
forventninger ned
Scen 3: 2 + norm
renter/BNP ute
Scen 4: 3 + 0,5%
økt rentemargin
Nom prisstign 11,0 % 6,3 % 2,1 % 0,6 % -2,1 %
Reell prisstign 4,8 % 0,6 % -3,6 % -8,2 % -10,9 %
Boligprisvekst i ulike scenarier (2013-16)

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Modellendring har betydelig virkning (prisvekst 2013-16)!
-5 %
0 %
5 %
10 %
15 %
20 %
Den gamle
modellen
Referansebane Scen 1:
Oljepris, inv ned
Scen 2: OP, OI,
forventninger
ned
Scen 3: 2 +
norm
renter/BNP ute
Scen 4: 3 +
0,5% økt
rentemargin
Nom prisstign 16,8 % 11,0 % 6,3 % 2,1 % 0,6 % -2,1 %
Modellendring
-5,8%
Oljepris, inv:
-4,8%
Renteøkning:
-4,2%
O I + Forv:
-4,2%

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Avvik fra referansebanen til 2020
-25,0 %
-20,0 %
-15,0 %
-10,0 %
-5,0 %
0,0 %
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Scenario 2: Oljepris, Inv, forventninger ned
Scenario 4: I tillegg renter ute, margin opp
• Effekten av sjokkene størst
etter ca 6 år
• Oljesjokk: boligpriser ca 12% ned
ifht Ref
• Olje og rentesjokk: boligpriser ca
21% ned ifht Ref
• Effekten på realøkonomien i
SSB’s modell er moderat
• BNP maks 3,4% lavere enn Ref
• Realdisp. Innt maks 8,5% lavere
• Lønn maks 2,9% lavere
• Er det tenkelig at et slikt sjokk
vil ha større effekt?

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3. Hvor kan SSB’s modell svikte?
• Viktigste innsigelse: Undervurderer modellen betydningen av oljen?
Øystein Olsen, 2011

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Øvrige merknader
• Kanskje prisvirkninger vil skje hurtigere
− Hvis alle aktører vet at faktorene vil endre seg som beskrevet i scenariene tilsier
”effisient markeds hypotesen” en umiddelbar prisvirkning
• Ser bare på aggregerte data
− Kan være betydningsfullt med befolkningsstørrelse og arbeidsledighet selv om
disponibel inntekt forblir uforandret
• Begrensede data;
− Fra 1986 frem til i dag (samme tidsrom som vi har opplevd en høy boligprisvekst)
− Ser bare på Norge
− Modellen er derved per design egnet til å forklare prisutviklingen i denne perioden

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