Lecture "Agricultural Revolutions. Future Development of the Agricultural Sector" at the Round Table "Managing the Future. Problems and prospects of global civilization and Ukraine.". 09 Feb 2017.

1. Agricultural Revolutions.
Future Development of the Agricultural
Sector.
Sergiy Bulavin 09 Feb 2017

2. Agricultural Revolutions.

3. Agricultural Revolutions: 10,000 BCE – 1990 AC.
6 agricultural revolutions:
 Neolithic Revolution. 10,000 BCE.
 Global Revolution. 10,000 BCE, after the Neolithic Revolution.
 Industrial and Scientific Revolution. End of XIX – beginning of XX century
AC.
 Green Revolution. 1960s.
 Biotechnological Revolution. 1980s.
 Sustainability / Environmental Stability Revolution. 1980s.
Source: Cleveland, D. A. 2014. Balancing on a planet. The future of food and agriculture. Berkeley: University
of California Press.
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Lecture at the Round Table "Managing the Future". 09 Feb 2017.

4. Neolithic Agricultural Revolution
 10,000 BCE.
 Early domestication of plants and animals
 Beginning of agricultural and ecological systems management
 Increasing human population growth rate
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Lecture at the Round Table "Managing the Future". 09 Feb 2017.

5. Global Agricultural Revolution
 10,000 BCE, after the Neolithic Revolution
 Expanding domestication of plants and animals
 Dissemination of agricultural knowledge and technologies
 Expansion of varieties adapted to local environmental conditions
 Transformation of natural vegetation into croplands and pastures
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Lecture at the Round Table "Managing the Future". 09 Feb 2017.

6. Industrial and Scientific Agricultural Revolution
 End of XIX – beginning of XX century AD.
 Understanding the influence of nitrogen on plants
 Discovery of nitrogen fertilizers
 Introduction of fossil fuel equipment
 Use of biosciences in plant selection and agronomy
 Substantial increase of labor productivity
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Lecture at the Round Table "Managing the Future". 09 Feb 2017.

7. Green Agricultural Revolution
 1960s
 Expansion of Industrial Agriculture
 Introduction of modern crop varieties
 Higher yields
 Growing use of resources (mineral fertilizers, pesticides, fuel, irrigation)
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Lecture at the Round Table "Managing the Future". 09 Feb 2017.

8. Biotechnological Agricultural Revolution
 1980s
 Large-scale research and direct intervention in plant genetics
 Construction of transgenic crop varieties
 Appearance of commercial transgenic crop varieties and their further
wide use in the American agriculture in 1990s
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Lecture at the Round Table "Managing the Future". 09 Feb 2017.

9. Environmental Stability Agricultural Revolution
 1980s
 Searching for the ways to mitigate adverse impact of previous
Agricultural Revolutions on the environment, rural communities, and
economic sustainability
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Lecture at the Round Table "Managing the Future". 09 Feb 2017.

10. Environmental Sustainability Principles (FAO)
 Improve efficiency in the use of resources (land, water, energy, fertilizers,
plant protection agents etc.)
 Conserve, protect, and enhance natural resources
 Protect and improve rural livelihoods and social well-being
 Enhance resilience of people, communities, and ecosystems, specifically
in terms of climate change and market volatility
 Facilitate responsible and effective governance mechanisms
Source: FAO.
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Lecture at the Round Table "Managing the Future". 09 Feb 2017.

11. Food Consumption.
Impact Factors.
Limitations.

12. Consumption of Agricultural Products
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U s e o f a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i o n
Human FoodAnimal Feed
Power generation
Bio-fuel
Bio-gas
Electricity generation
Heat generation
Industrial production
Fiber
Cellulose
Biopolymers
Medications
Chemical industry
Lecture at the Round Table "Managing the Future". 09 Feb 2017.

13. Impact Factors
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Population
Urbanization
Energy
consumption
Changes in
diet
Consumption of
Agricultural
Products
Lecture at the Round Table "Managing the Future". 09 Feb 2017.

14. Impact Factors: Population
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Lecture at the Round Table "Managing the Future". 09 Feb 2017.

15. Impact Factors: Urbanization
Source: United Nations.
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Lecture at the Round Table "Managing the Future". 09 Feb 2017.

16. Impact Factors: Changes in Diet
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Per capita food consumption (kcal/person/day)
Source: FAO.
Lecture at the Round Table "Managing the Future". 09 Feb 2017.

17. Impact Factors: Changes in Diet
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Per capita food consumption (kg/person/year)
Source: FAO.
Lecture at the Round Table "Managing the Future". 09 Feb 2017.

18. Impact Factors: Energy Consumption
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Lecture at the Round Table "Managing the Future". 09 Feb 2017.

19. Limiting Factor: Availability of Cropland
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Lecture at the Round Table "Managing the Future". 09 Feb 2017.

20. Impact Factors Conflict
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Population
Urbanization
Energy
consumption
Changes in
diet
Consumption
of Agricultural
Products
Availability of
appropriate
cropland
Lecture at the Round Table "Managing the Future". 09 Feb 2017.

21. Solutions
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 Prevent the reduction of appropriate agricultural lands:
Erosion control
Pollution control
Irrigation
Environmental sustainability
 Increase yields:
Growth of land use intensity
Precision farming
Higher yields at the expense of narrower yield gap
Generation of more productive hybrids and varieties
Introduction of innovative technologies
Promotion of industrial agriculture
Lecture at the Round Table "Managing the Future". 09 Feb 2017.

22. Future Development of the
Agricultural Sector.

23. What comes next?
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 GMO driving out non-GMO?
 Environmentally sustainable industrial agriculture?
 Reduced human involvement in the production process? Agricultural
robots?
 Fully automated farms under control of one human operator?
 Artificial climate set over large territories to increase yields and gather 2-
3 harvests per calendar year?
 Formation of man-made soils to increase lands appropriate for farming?
 Vertical farming, city farming?
Lecture at the Round Table "Managing the Future". 09 Feb 2017.

24. Automated Quadrocopters
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Source: Geographic History.
Lecture at the Round Table "Managing the Future". 09 Feb 2017.

25. Automated Equipment Systems and Robots
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Source: The Economist
Lecture at the Round Table "Managing the Future". 09 Feb 2017.

26. Automated Equipment Systems and Robots
26 Source: AZoRobotics, CNH.
Lecture at the Round Table "Managing the Future". 09 Feb 2017.

27. City Farming
27 Source: Wall Street Journal.
Lecture at the Round Table "Managing the Future". 09 Feb 2017.

28. Vertical Farming
28 Source: Business Insider.
Lecture at the Round Table "Managing the Future". 09 Feb 2017.

29. Questions & Answers
Thank you for your
attention!
Sergiy Bulavin
sbulavin@agrogeneration.com
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Lecture at the Round Table "Managing the Future". 09 Feb 2017.