This document discusses the potential economic impacts of Brexit on trade between Ireland and the UK. It finds that: 1) A 10% tariff on all goods traded between Ireland and the UK could reduce Irish exports to the UK by €1.5 billion and increase prices in Ireland on UK imports by €1.2 billion. 2) For food specifically, a 10% tariff could reduce Irish food exports to the UK by €0.68 billion and increase prices in Ireland on UK food imports by €0.31 billion. 3) The impacts are estimated to be greater for the UK economy, as the UK runs a trade surplus with Ireland of over €4 billion annually that could be reduced.

1. Brexit – Is the Cloud over Ireland ?
“Britain deciding, Europe waiting - Ireland pressing on!”
Rapid Grocery Market Clarity
https://youtu.be/98gj0z0RkXE
Mick Jagger’s thoughts;
“ Gotta get a grip !”
Sinead O’Connor’s thoughts;
“ Nothing compares to EU!”

2. To quantify the impact of Brexit on Ireland & the UK we first have to ;
A. Avoid going down rabbit holes!
• Keep the scope of our evaluation as simple as possible!
• Assume now that we are heading for a hard Brexit
• Confine it to the economic relationships between Ireland & the UK
• Identify the impact of one overall tariff ! To simplify lets say 10% on Irish exports & on UK imports
• To help form a view, we will assume that multiple alternative trade options will drive a UK &
Ireland reduction in food trade of 15%!
(If a 10% tariff on UK food imports was simply allowed to flow through to Irish consumers
it would create an additional circa 5% inflation in the total food retail & service sectors!)
B. Concentrate on 2 aspects of Brexit & calculate the effect on the UK & Ireland!
• 1. The impact of tariffs on volume of exports between Ireland & the UK !
• A 10% rise in price reduces demand by 15% > Some companies switch and others import less
• 2. The impact of tariffs on the price of goods in Ireland & the UK !
• A 10% tariff on goods received will result in a price rise of 10% on those items in the receiving market
• For these 2 aspects lets summarise their expected impacts!
Brexit – Is the cloud over Ireland ?
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3. • Food prices could jump 45% in a hard Brexit, retailers warn
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/retail.../food-prices-could-jump-45-in-a-...
• Why is the Irish food sector so exposed to a no-deal Brexit?
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/agribusiness...food/why-is-the-irish-fo...
• Brexit - Food Drink Ireland
https://www.fooddrinkireland.ie/Sectors/...pillars~brexit/.../Brexit+-+the+ch...
• Why is the Irish food sector so exposed to a no-deal Brexit?
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/agribusiness...food/why-is-the-irish-fo...
• Irish goods exports hit record level as reliance on Britain falls ...
https://uk.reuters.com/.../uk-ireland...exports/irish-goods-exports-hit-record...
• UK trade with Ireland - Parliament UK
researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8173/CBP-8173.pdf
• Irish goods exports to Britain fall 4% amid Brexit uncertainty
https://www.irishtimes.com/.../irish-goods-exports-to-britain-fall-4-amid-br...
Brexit – Is the cloud over Ireland ?
Lets start by giving credit to many detailed & valuable sources !
Now lets cross reference them to provide one clear message!
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4. Content; Is the cloud over Ireland ?
1. Defining Brexit & clarifying the UK Brexit options!!
2. A summary of the Irish economy
3. Irish Trade with the world & with the UK
4. The impact of tariffs between Ireland & the UK in total & on food
exports
5. Positives & negatives for Ireland
6. Summary – Brexit, will it hurt!
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5. 1. Hard Brexit !
• Remove freedom of movement in & out of the UK for EU citizens
• Stop member payment to the EU (UK net 2018 = 8.8 Bil.)
• The UK sets its own trade tariffs with other EU nations
• EU economic law will NOT over-ride UK law
Brexit – Is the cloud over Ireland ?
Firstly lets clarify what Brexit options are available to the UK!
2. Soft Brexit!
Choose to be in the European Economic Area (EEA) even if you don’t remain in the EU!
• The free movement of persons is a core right guaranteed in the (EEA).
• Lower financial commitment to EU (EEA contribute 2.4% of the EU budget - The Norway choice)!
Customs Union
No tariffs between members of CU & Same tariff from all members to each non-member state
3. The Middle ground ?
• So many! : / EEA only/ Tariff by economic sector / agree small EU contribution/ NI Backstop …
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6. Economic Health:
The Irish economy stood at €378 Bil. GDP in 2018
• The economic growth in Ireland in 2018 was 8.2% - Highest in Europe !
• Growth of 4.6% is already recorded in the 1st 6 months 2019 - Highest in Europe!
• Exports at €141 Bil. in 2018
• Growing by a further 13% in 1st Half of 2019
• Employment + 69,000 in 2018
• Central Government Budget surplus in 2018 for the first time in 11 years!
• Despite a 17% increase in capital spending in 2018
Brexit – Is the cloud over Ireland ?
Now lets summarise the current health of the Irish economy!
Rapid Grocery Market ClaritySo quite healthy!

7. Trade with the world:
• At the current 13% growth, Irish exports are likely to hit €159 Bil. in 2019! (CSO)
• €141 Billion in exports in 2018 : €39 Bil. to the US / €15.3 Bil. to Germany / €10.4 Bil. to the UK
• At the current 9% growth, imports are likely to reach €98 Bil. in 2019!
• Imports were €91 Billion in 2018
• Therefore the trading surplus in Ireland is heading for €61 Bil. in 2019!
• National debt is down to 61% of GDP from 121% in 2012
• Debt per capita in Ireland is still high but has been gradually reducing over the last 7 years!
Brexit – Is the cloud over Ireland ?
Exports continue to rise faster than imports, growing our trade surplus!
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8. Trade with the UK:
In 2019 imports of goods from the UK will be €4.1 Billion greater than Irish exports to the UK
• Based on Jan to May 2019;
• Total goods imports from the UK will be circa €14.5 Bil. in 2019
• Total goods exports to the UK will be circa €10.4 Bil. in 2019
Imports from Britain are up 12% to €8.2 Bil. Up €900Mil. In the 5 months from Jan to May 2019
Exports to Britain are up by 9.5% to €6Bil. Up €490 Mil. In the 5 months from Jan to May 2019
• Exports to ; Germany are up by by 35%/Netherlands 20%/Italy 14%
• Therefore, in the first 5 Mths. of 2019, the gap grew by €410 Mil. Or by a further 12%
• At that rate of expansion over 2019, the gap will grow by €1 Bil.
In fact Britain will receive >7% of our exports & delivers 22% of Ireland’s imports!
Ireland’s export exposure to the UK is reducing as a % of total exports !
Brexit – Is the cloud over Ireland ?
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9. The introduction of tariffs would have an impact on both exports & imports!
€10.4Bil. of Irish goods would experience reduced demand in the UK!
€14.5 Bil. of imports from the UK would go up in price in Ireland !
Brexit – Is the cloud over Ireland ?
The UK exports €4.1 Bil. more to Ireland than it imports from Ireland!
Total Irish Exports €141 Bil.
Total UK exports - €710 Bil.
€10.4 Bil
To UK
Food
€3.7 Bil
to Irl.
Food
€4.5 Bil
To UK
€14.5Bil
To Ireland
2%
7%
1.
2.
1.
2.
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10. 1. Impact on Irish export trade
• €10.4 Bil. of Irish goods would be hit with
a 10% tariff resulting in circa 15% drop in
demand or;
-€1.5 Bil. in demand for Irish goods
2. Impact on price in Ireland of UK imports
• €14.5 Bil. of UK goods hit with a 10% tariff result in;
• A) c15% drop in demand from €14.5 Bil to €12.3 Bil.
• B) 10% rise in price of that €12.3Bil. of goods ;
€1.2 Bil. rise in the price of UK goods in Ireland
Brexit impact on “Total goods” exports– Is the cloud over Ireland ?
10% tariff - Impact on Ireland!
IMPACT: With a 10% avg. trade tariff in both directions
Irish Exports to the UK drop by -€1.5 Bil.
The price of €12.3 Bil. of UK goods rise in Ireland by +10% €1.2 Bil.
REMEDY: A. Prioritise rest of the EU (3% growth in exports to the rest of EU - It was 17% 2018) +€2.2 Bil.
B. EU support +€0.5 Bil.
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11. 1. Impact on UK export trade
• €14.5 Bil. of UK goods would be hit with
a 10% tariff resulting in circa 15% drop in
demand or;
- €2.2 Bil. in demand for UK goods
2. Impact on price in the UK of Irish imports
• €10.4 Bil. of Irish goods hit with a 10% tariff so;
• A)c15% drop in demand from €10.4 Bil to €8.9 Bil.
• B) 10% rise in price for that €8.9 Bil. of goods, equal
to;
€0.89 Bil. rise in the price of Irish goods in the UK
10% tariff, Impact on the UK
IMPACT: With a 10% avg. trade tariff in both directions;
Exports of UK goods to Ireland drop by -€2.20 Bil.
Price of Irish goods in the UK rise by 10% on €8.9 Bil worth of goods! €0.89 Bil.
REMEDY: A. Prioritise outside the EU (other market options not yet clear!) € ?
B. EU support € 0
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Brexit impact on “Total goods” exports– Is the cloud over Ireland ?

12. Food:
• 34% of our food exports go to the UK !
• €4.5 Bil
Beef:
• Almost 50% of our beef exports go to UK
• 80,400 tons
• Brexit preparation is most intense in food!
• Today: 79% of Irish businesses have prepared for
a no-deal Brexit
• 93% of Irish food exporters are now prepared for
a no-deal Brexit
• 55% are holding > 3weeks stock
outside of Ireland now!
• 96% were in contact with suppliers in
the last 3 months in prep for Brexit!
• 74% are actively seeking new markets
in response to Brexit
• 57% have in 2018-2019 already secured
strong growth outside of the UK
Food:
• 48% of Irish food imports come from the UK
• €3.7 Bil.
Beef:
• 35% of British beef export to Europe go to Ireland!
• 39,000 tons
• The EU’s is the largest importer of British beef
• Receiving 99,000 tons of British beef
• Up 19% in 2018 alone
• Still rising in 2019
• The Mercosur’s beef quota from Brazil that is being
negotiated by the EU is for 99,000 tons per annum
• The EU is preparing to be without ALL UK beef!
• This new source is also a challenge to Irish beef, but it
is not aimed at replacing Irish exports but preventing
the loss of supply to the EU
Ireland to the UK The UK to Ireland
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Brexit impact on “Food” exports– Is the cloud over Ireland?

13. 1. Impact on Irish export trade
• €4.5 Bil. of Irish food exports would
be hit with a 10% tariff resulting in
circa 15% drop in demand or;
•
-€0.68 Bil. in demand for Irish goods
2. Impact on price of UK imports
• €3.7 Bil. of UK food imports hit with a 10% tariff so;
• A) c15% drop in demand from €3.7 Bil to €3.1 Bil.
• B) 10% rise in price for that €3.1 Bil. of goods,
equal to;
€0.31 Bil. rise in the price of goods in Ireland
10% tariff on food exports - Impact on Ireland
IMPACT: With a 10% avg. trade tariff in both directions;
Exports of Irish foods to the UK drop -€0.68 Bil!
Price of €3.1 Bil. of UK foods rise by 10% in Ireland €0.31 Bil!
REMEDY: A. Prioritise rest of the EU (6% growth in exports to the rest of the EU – It was 15% 2018) €0.5 Bil.
B. EU support (60% of total EU financial support given to food) +€0.3 Bil.
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Brexit impact on “Food” exports– Is the cloud over Ireland ?

14. 1. Impact on UK export trade
• €3.7 Bil. of UK foods would be hit with a
10% tariff resulting in circa 15% drop in
demand or;
- €0.56 Bil. in demand for UK goods
2. Impact on price of UK imports
• €4.5 Bil. of Irish foods hit with a 10% tariff so;
• A) c15% drop in demand from €4.5 Bil to €3.8 Bil.
• B) 10% rise in price for that €3.8 Bil. of goods, equal
to;
€0.38 Bil. rise in price of Irish goods in the UK
10% tariff, Impact on the UK
IMPACT: With a 10% avg. trade tariff in both directions;
Exports of UK foods to Ireland drop by -€0.56 Bil!
Price of €3.8 Bil. of UK foods rise by 10% in Ireland €0.38 Bil!
REMEDY: A. Prioritise outside the EU (other market options not yet clear!) € ?
B. EU support € 0
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Brexit impact on “Food” exports– Is the cloud over Ireland ?

15. Brexit – Is the cloud over Ireland ?
Positives for Ireland Negatives for Ireland
• The impact on the N.I. border
• 34% of Ireland’s food exports are to the
UK
• 50% of beef exports are to the UK
• The % tariff enforced may vary
• The combined impact of a 10% tariff will
in the short-term create;
• A reduction in exports to the UK of €1.5 Bil.
• Inflation in Irish retail food prices of €1.2 Bil.
• The UK is our nearest neighbour & the
UK’s pain will naturally hurt Ireland!
• 93% of Irish food exporters are hard
Brexit ready;
• Port & border handling/ packaging/ staff/
transport adaptation
• The Irish economy is growing by 4.6% in
2019
• Only 7% of goods exports are to the UK
and are constantly reducing as a % of Irish
exports
• Exports to rest of EU are rising by 13%/yr.
• Ireland is now operating a national
budget surplus so is investment ready
• The EU has earmarked c€500 Mil. In
support to the Irish economy in the event
of a “Hard Brexit”
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16. Brexit –Will it hurt?
• Exports to the UK have reduced from 31% of the total Irish exports in 1989 to just 7% in 2019!
• Exports of Irish goods to other EU partners have grown rapidly. In fact by 13%/yr. 2017-2019!
• Irish preparation for a hard Brexit is strong & is strongest in the food sector where most needed
• While reduced exports & price rises will have a negative impact of circa €2.7 Bil. on Ireland it will
be completely offset by achieving just 1/5th of our 2019 growth with the EU, during 2020!
• A key challenge for Ireland will be in food & particularly beef exports where we will have
to replace UK imports with Irish stock & grow Irish exports to the EU!
• The impact of Irish tariff’s on the UK economy will be greater than like UK tariff’s on Irish goods
as the UK has a €4.1 Bil. & rapidly growing trade surplus with Ireland !
• Support is sanctioned by the EU, with €500 Mil. set to support Ireland
Of course a hard Brexit will hurt both Ireland & the UK but, in taking the trade between
Ireland & the UK in isolation, the impact of a hard Brexit will be greater on the UK!
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Next:
The primary “Rapid Grocery Market Clarity” LinkedIn post in September concentrates
on; “The rapidly evolving shopper Experience in the Irish grocery retail trade”