The Irish grocery retail market grew 4.6% in the 12 weeks to June 16th 2019. Aldi and Dunnes Stores were the key drivers of this growth, together accounting for two-thirds of the total market growth. Aldi in particular saw strong growth, with its sales increasing by 13.5% over the same period in 2018, making it the biggest contributor to overall market growth in value terms. This rapid growth reflects Aldi's expansion of stores and product range in Ireland in recent years.

1. “Are we approaching a tipping point for the Irish
Grocery retail Market ?”
“Other grocery
Retail Brands!”
Rapid Grocery Market Clarity

2. “Lets reach out and dig deep to answer that question?”
All information referenced here is available through a variety of great online publications!
So, lets distil all those great articles to deliver one clear message!
Firstly, lets acknowledge & reference the key sources:
•The Journal
•https://www.thejournal.ie/500-new-jobs-aldi-4452666-Jan2019/
•The Irish Times
•https://www.irishtimes.com/topics/topics-7.1213540?...company=Aldi
•The Examiner
•https://www.irishexaminer.com/.../aldi-to-create-500-jobs-in-2019-with-open...
•Kantar World Panel Ireland
•https://www.kantarworldpanel.com/ie
•Red fm.ie
•www.redfm.ie/.../dunnes-stores-bishopstown-court-is-holding-a-massive-la...
•Fora.ie
•https://fora.ie/dunnes-beacon-south-quarter-sandyford-4119990-Jul2018/
•Checkout.ie
•https://www.checkout.ie/.../dunnes-stores-objects-revamp-planning-restricti...
Rapid Grocery Market Clarity

3. How much growth is their in the Irish grocery market?
2018:
• Every month Kantar World Panel Ireland, through a massive panel of 5,000 Irish households
who are carefully selected to be representative of the market, track grocery retail sales very
accurately. As with all data suppliers they find it more difficult to capture smaller “On the go”
transactions as households are less likely to recall and record these shopping events.
• However, active market participants understand these minor gaps in the data & using Kantar’s
reports can see that in the 12weeks to June 17th, 2018 total sale were circa €230 Mil. /week.
2019:
• Kantar published that the market in the 12 weeks to June 16th, 2019, grew by 4.6% V's the
like period in 2018, equating to growth of €241,000,000/week
2019 Vs 2018
• Demonstrating growth of €11 Million/week
or €132 Million in 12 weeks to 16/06/2019
Rapid Grocery Market Clarity

4. Which retail brands are in growth?
All… but clearly, there are a few front runners!
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5. Who are the key drivers of this growth ?
Aldi
• Aldi had 11.4% of the market in 2018 which, based on the total market value
read (Kantar), would represent €26,500,000/Week.
• Growing sales by13.5% 2019 on 2018 to €30,100,000 or by €3.6Mil /week
which is worth €43Mil over the full 12-week period (to June 16th 2019)!
Dunnes Stores
• Dunnes had 21.7% of the market in 2018 which, based on total market sales
read (Kantar), infers a value of €50,340,000/week.
• By growing sales by 7.1% in the 12 W/E 16th of June 2019 this represents a
rise to circa €53,900,000 or growth of €3.56mil / week. That’s €42.7mil over
the 12 weeks to June 16th, 2019 V the like period in 2018.
Overall:
• So €86Mil of the market growth of €132Mil., or 2/3rd of it generated by
Aldi & Dunnes who together represent 1/3rd of the market by sales value !
Rapid Grocery Market Clarity

6. What’s the over-riding story in the Irish grocery market?
It’s the emergence of a significant change in shopper attitude & retail choice!
• In the 12 weeks to the 16th of June 2019, the grocery market in the Republic of
Ireland grew by 4.6% … so for all major grocery market retailers’ things are
looking really healthy!
• Aldi has been generating strong growth in the Irish market for many years now !
• What is amazing is that for the first time since Aldi arrived into the Irish market in
1999, due to their now significant scale & their powerful growth over the 12 weeks
period to the 16th of June 2019;
• The biggest growth in total sales value in the Irish grocery market was
generated by Aldi who delivering €43 Mil. in additional sales relative to the
same period in the prior year!
Rapid Grocery Market Clarity

7. What does this mean for Aldi ?
- Market share up 0.9%
- Sales up €3,600,000/week
- Generating 33% of the total sales growth in the market !
Rapid Grocery Market Clarity
2018 2019 Growthin Growthin % of Market
Market Value €230 Mil/wk. €241 Mil/wk. weekly sales over 12 weeks Sales growth
% share 2018 % share 2019
Market €11,000,000 €132,000,000 100%
Aldi 11.4% 12.3% €3,600,000 €43,000,000 33.00%
Year on year sales explosion 12 weeks to 16th June 2019 !

8. How are Aldi doing it ?
• Their switch and save advertising success
(https://www.facebook.com/AldiIreland/videos/aldi-ireland-swap-and- save/1917596214969634/)
• The expansion in Ireland of a high-quality artesian food range at very competitive prices
• Aldi will have opened 16 new stores between 2017 & 2019. New store openings generally
generate additional sales above and beyond natural organic market growth for the first 3
years after opening, and for Aldi this will add to organic growth in each of those years;
• 5 new stores opened in 2017 - Still generating c10-15% non-organic growth in 2019
• 4 new stores opened in 2018 - Still generating 25% growth in 2019
• 7 new stores opened by the end of 2019 - Generating 90% new growth (not 100% as there
is marginal switching from existing Aldi stores)
• Plus, spending €60 Mil. to revamps their existing stores
• New distribution centre & regional office opened in Mitchelstown Cork in 2019
• By December 2019 Aldi will have 144 stores (including 3 more by yr. end) generating c€31.5
Mil./Wk.
• Even matching expected market growth in 2020 this rises to €32.5/wk. An extra €6. Mil./week
relative to the avg. in Q1+2 2018 (€26,500,000) = €312,000,000 in extra sales through Aldi
Rapid Grocery Market Clarity

9. So what ?
• If the TOTAL Market grows by 4.5% on average this year and again by 3% in 2020
(lower due to the Brexit impact in 2020. To be explored & reported on in August 2019!)
That will mean;
• €10.8 Mil. growth per week in 2019 (Vs 2018)
• € 7.2 Mil. growth per week in 2020 (Vs 2019)
• The total weekly sales growth 2020 V’s 2018 will therefore be +€18,000,000/week
(€10.8Mil + €7.2 Mil.) or a €936,000,000 growth in the markets annual value 2020
V its value in 2018.
• This means that based on Aldi’s own & the markets projected growth;
Aldi may represent 33% of total growth over the period 2019-2020!
* (€312 Mil./ €936 Mil.)
Rapid Grocery Market Clarity

10. What next ?
• Does that represent a tipping point!
• Possibly! At the very least it represents a marker in the sand!
…but we will have to watch this space! In reality for every retailer
action there is likely to be an equal & opposing retailer reaction.
The question is by which retailer… investing how much & doing what?
Next:
• The primary “Rapid Grocery Market Clarity” LinkedIn post in August
will concentrate on the Brexit impact!
•
Rapid Grocery Market Clarity

11. To engage in “Rapid grocery market clarity”
•
• - Contact me by email; Seankevincollins@hotmail.com
•
• - Call me on the mobile number listed on my LinkedIn account
• Go to www.linkedin.com/in/sean-collins-9bb6b357
• & send me a LinkedIn message
OR
• To download the “Rapid Grocery Market Clarity” Retail & grocery supplier support
brochure
• Key services I am supporting:
• Market Research / Consumer Insight/ Segmentation/ Loyalty
development/ Ge-spatial analysis/ CRM Project Management/ CX
Rapid Grocery Market Clarity