Ciaran Fitzgerald, Food Economist

1. R E L E VA N C E : T H E
P E R E N N I A L
C H A L L E N G E
• Ongoing relationship /interaction with
Government and society based on
relevance
• Whether economic opportunity as with
Milk Quota abolition
• Or impact of regulatory constraint as
with emissions reduction /reduced
environmental impact
• Core basis of dialogue is relevance!
• In 2010 relevance of AG was seen as
positive economic impact through
growth in output, exports and jobs
• Badly needed at the time!!

2. I R I S H E C O N O M Y
2 0 2 2 R E L E V A N C E ?
A G O U T P U T I N
2 0 2 2 : € 1 2 B N + , U P
A L M O S T € 6 B N
S I N C E 2 0 1 0
Late 2022 announcements of job cuts in the Global tech
sector causing concern
Irelands dependency on FDI: both jobs and tax revenue
indicates vulnerability
Government announces review of industrial development
policy November 2022
AG output figures show Irish AG turnover €12bn+ for 2022.
Up 70% since 2015
Industrial policy review concludes … no change: no
mention of Agri Food.
Policy directives on carbon budgets: AG reduction target of
25%

3. A G 2 0 2 3 ? E C O N O M I C R E L E V A N C E
D I S M I S S E D
C L I M A T E C H A L L E N G E S W E A P O N I Z E D T O
M I S C H A R A C T E R I Z E
• Irish AG characterized as polluter first and foremost
• Economic impact ignored or dismissed
• Livestock/meat/dairy output defined as not sustainable
food
• Plant based horticulture promoted despite no economic
basis!

4. H O R T I C U L T U R E
S E C T O R I N
D E C L I N E !
• While most food sold at or
below cost
• Fruit vegetables particularly
chronic below cost
• Reality: No panacea here
• Another example of policy
disconnect
• Price setting by producer
prohibited by law
• No margin no future !

5. A G E C O N O M I C I M PA C T
R E A L I T Y
• First and foremost reflection of increasing global demand
for Irish grass fed offering
• Irish economy spend from dairy and meat sectors now
€10bn
• CSO/DETE analysis show Irish economy spend 3 times
higher from Agri food from any other business sector !
• Every €1bn in exports sees €1.1bn spent in Irish economy
in AG …
• CSO indicates Irish economy multiplier from AG … 2.06
• Each 1% reduction in Agri output means€120m is
lost to the sector, and €240m across the
economy

6. R E A L I R I S H E C O N O M Y Q U E S T I O N I S : W H A T
D O E S I N D U S T R Y S P E N D I N I R E L A N D ?
Under GDP
“protocol” global
profits are in
Irish figure
But €10bn paid
by processors
for dairy and
meat are not !

7. A G I M PA C T
M U LT I P L I E R
V E R I F I E D
• KPMG /IFJ STUDY
• 4 TOWNS (BALLYHAUNIS, CAVAN,
ENNISCORTHY, CHARLEVILLE)
CONTRIBUTE €4.9BN TO IRISH ECONOMY
• 41,000 JOBS DIRECTLY LINKED
• EY REPORT FOR TIRLAN
• IRISH ECONOMY IMPACT €3.4BN
• 17,600 FULL TIME JOBS SUPPORTED
• CSO MULTIPLIER IMPACT: 2.06

8. D U A L C H A L L E N G E
• Economic misrepresentation
promotes the notion of low
contribution and easy
replacement!
• Concern that anti AG
narrative over focused on
reducing livestock numbers
NOT just reducing emissions
• Science shows emissions
can be reduced both ways

9. F U N D A M E N TA L
C H A L L E N G E
Challenge the prejudice
and economic ignorance
AG sector must change how
it advocates itself
Government must accept
real economics and
livestock base to get buy in !

10. E C O N O M I C R E A L I T Y V
G D P D E L U S I O N
Irelands GDP figure €400bn is unreliable !
Eurostat /CSO show almost €200bn in transfers
90% of EU income level v 190% of EU GDP
averages !
Minister for Finance knows budget must reflect
reality of Real/ smaller Irish economy
Yet Higher GDP figure used to diminish AG
AG GVA is €5bn … while output value €12bn
AG contribution portrayed as €5bn out of
€400bn!!!

11. F L A W E D A S S E S S M E N T O F R E A L I M P A C T
A N D R E P L A C E M E N T C O S T !
IF AG AS PER
GDP MEASURE:
€5 BN
EASILY replaced
!!
“Official” FIGURE
SHOWS ANNUAL
INCREASE OF
€10 /15BN !

12. D É J À V U A L L
O V E R A G A I N
2004 report: Ahead of the curve
Review of Irish industrial development
AG dismissed as sunset industry
Globalization used to promote AG shutdown
Economic progress demanded move to Services
based economy
This ideology framed approach to WTO Doha
Give away of Irish beef to Brazil! Only avoided by
talks collapse
Huge contribution by AG FROM 2008 WAS REALITY
Different ideology in 2020s: but same lazy thought
process

13. E C O N O M I C R E A L I T Y I S € 2 0 0 B N E U R O

14. R E G I O N A L I N C O M E VA R I AT I O N S !

15. R E A L I R I S H
E C O N O M Y
P R O F I L E

16. R E A L I R I S H
E C O N O M Y
P R O F I L E

17. I R I S H E C O N O M Y R E A L I T Y 2 0 2 3
• Irish Agri output reached a record €12bn+ in 2022 (CSO)
• Key driver is global demand for grass based Irish!!
• CSO and DETE figures show Agri multiplier is 2.06
• Huge Irish economy spend impact
• Net earnings increased despite huge input cost rise:
- Fertilizer Prices +141 % [fertilizer usage fell by 19%]
- Feed +35%
• On output side: Milk price +46%; Beef +20%
• Value of output up by almost €6bn v 10 years go
• Exports now worth €15bn
• Huge challenge to maintain output value and underpin Irish
economy impact

18. I R I S H A G O U T P U T 2 0 2 2

19. S U P P R E S S I N G I R I S H A G
M E A N S R E D U C E D I R I S H
E C O N O M Y I M P A C T
• DETE say total Irish
economic spend from all
industry €50bn
• Agri-food is at least 1/3 of
this and growing!
• AG growth has added €6bn
annually to Irish economy
spend
• Each % reduction in output
now costs €120m/year!
• €240m per multiplier!

20. C H A N G E T H E N A R R AT I V E
One of the learnings of the
economic crash 2008-2012 was
the need for a balanced economy
One sector can’t/won’t do it Promotion of AG economy doesn't
diminish others !

21. C H A N G E T H E
N A R R AT I V E
• Balanced economy requires multi sectoral impact
• Promotion of FDI does not mean suppression of
AG
• OR VICE VERSA
• INDEED FDI would benefit from greater green
gas capability in Irish AG sector

22. W H A T N E X T ?
Governments don’t give away what they value
Look at Irelands defence of corporation tax
AG emissions impact must be managed
But balanced approach must reflect real economy
impact

23. W H AT D O E S A G S AY A B O U T I T S E L F
AG communication must first highlight its economic impact
Unique rural regional Agi food footprint
Unique economic multiplier effect
Plus we know global demand for Irish grass-fed offering is increasing

24. B A L A N C E D A P P R O A C H
Government must
accept true
economy impact
Suppression has a
major Irish
economy impact
01
Cost of New AG
production
constraints must be
bottomed out
02
Purpose must be
improved
environmental impact:
NOT vegan wish list!
03

25. W H I T H E R I R I S H A G R I A N D T H E I R I S H
E C O N O M Y
• Global demand for Irish grass-fed offering is increasing
• Reflects sustainable customer and consumer demand for Irish grass based
• Delivering increased Irish economy impact
• Irish farming/food significantly ahead of measurement and emissions reduction
capability v competitors
• Need Government support to sustain economic impact
• Assessment of where Agri really at not credible if economic ignorance at its heart
• Suppression if Irish AG has Real economic negative!
• Credibility of anti livestock woke propaganda/uneconomic promotion of horticulture
as panacea replacement not sustainable!
• Decarbonization of the Irish economy requires buy-in by citizens and practitioners
• Ideological/ magical thinking undermines science and ultimately buy-in