An analysis of local demographic trends currently affecting Kent County, Maryland's least populated county. A breakdown of national trends in banking, higher education, and other relevant data points are also discussed. This presentation is meant to lend data to an ongoing conversation regarding Kent County’s future.

1. Kent County, Maryland
Reimagining the Status Quo
Why Changing Demographics and National Trends Should Make
KC Residents Reconsider the Meaning of Preservation

2. Local Data Analysis

3. -4%Percent population growth since 2010
Kent County population | 2010= 20,191 - 2017 estimate= 19,384
Maryland’s population grew 4.8%
U.S. Census Bureau

4. #3Oldest county in Maryland by median age - 46.5
Preceded by Talbot and Worcester County

5. 2%Percent increase in population living in poverty
Percent of population below the poverty line | 2010= 12% - 2018= 14%
9.7% Maryland population living in poverty
U.S. Census Bureau

6. 1,880Projected enrollment of KCPS in 2025
-19% since 2005
KCPS enrollment | 2005= 2,310 - 2015= 1,909
Maryland Department of Education

7. -18%
Percent change in median home sales price
KC median home sales price | 2007= $264k - 2017= $216k
Maryland Department of Assessment and Taxation

8. Kent County Census on Employment and Wages
Natural Resources and Mining: 2010 - 2016
2010: Annual Average Employment= 285
Total Wages= $9,980,575
Average Weekly Wage Per Worker= $673
2016: Annual Average Employment= 257
(-10%)
Total Wages= $10,189,395 (2%)
Average Weekly Wage Per Worker= $762
(13%)
Maryland Department of Labor Licensing and Regulation

9. Kent County Census on Employment and Wages: 2016
Sector Employment Total Wages Average Weekly Wage
Professional and Business
Services
511 $32,000,000 $1,204
Manufacturing 769 $39,490,000 $988
Construction 520 $23,795,000 $880
Government 1,065 $44,350,000 $801
Natural Resources and
Mining
257 $10,190,000 $762
Education and Health
Services
1,908 $73,728,000 $743
Maryland Department of Labor Licensing and Regulation

10. National Trends

11. Economic Innovation Group: Rural Contribution to Economic
Recovery

12. -17%
Percent change in number of business establishments since 2005
Business establishments | 2005= 728 - 2017= 605
U.S. Census Bureau

13. Decline in Rural Lending
Wall Street Journal

14. “U.S. Colleges Are Facing a
Demographic and
Existential Crisis”
Huffington Post headline

15. Collegiate Enrollment Trends
● Two-thirds of private colleges and 50% of public colleges failed to meet their
enrollment or net-tuition revenue targets for 2016.
● The nationwide number of high school graduates is projected to decline through
2029-2030.
● Small colleges with less than 3,000 students are expected to be affected the most.
● A re-emerging emphasis on skilled trades could further exacerbate this trend.
Huffington Post

16. Maryland Small
College Enrollment
2010 - 2015
● McDaniel: 2,980 (-17%)
● St. John’s: 457 (-15%)
● Notre Dame: 2,612 (-12%)
● St. Mary’s: 1,772 (-12%)
● Goucher: 2,141 (-7%)
● Washington College: 1,427 (-3%)
Baltimore Sun

17. “America’s Rural Hospitals
Are Dangerously Fragile”
The Atlantic

18. 120
Number of rural hospitals that have closed since 2005
Rate of closures has been increasing since 2010
Health Resources and Services Administration

19. 673
Estimated number of rural hospitals (out of 2,000) identified by the National Rural
Health Association as being at risk of closure
The Atlantic

20. Other National Trends…?

21. Decline in Hunters
● Participation in hunting dropped
by 2 million people to 11.5
million hunters
● 2011-2016 total expenditures by
hunters declined by 30%, from
$36 billion to $25 billion
Theodore Roosevelt Conservation Partnership

22. Rise in Online
Shopping
● 50% of households have Amazon
Prime
● Warehouse space is now more
valuable than office space
● The home is getting more
comfortable
○ Online video streaming
○ Meal delivery services
○ Hyer-target ads and seamless online
shopping experience

23. Conclusion

24. Conservation and
preservation efforts have
worked...extremely well

25. At the end of the day, however...The numbers don’t lie
● Third oldest county in Maryland by median age
● Declining population
● Declining public school enrollment
● Declining business establishments
● Despite 10-years of economic expansion
○ More poverty today tham 2010
○ Home values have not recovered
● Long-term national trends spell increased trouble for rural areas--Kent County is
not immune

26. Rather than “Waiting for
something more suitable”
or rallying cry should be
“How do we Maximize the
Upsides and MItigate the
Downsides”

27. Time is limited. When the
next recession hits, what
then?

28. Samuel Shoge
shoge.chestertown@gmail.com
www.linkedin.com/in/samshoge/