Presentation by Philipp Heinrigs (SWAC/OECD) at the Seminar on Cross-Border Development in the Sahel, Cotonou (3-4July 2018). The seminar was organised by the West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA) and the Sahel and West Africa Club (SWAC) of the OECD. Présentation par Philipp Heinrigs (CSAO/OCDE) au séminaire sur le développement transfrontalier au Sahel, Cotonou (3-4 juillet 2018). Le séminaire a été organisé par l’Union économique et monétaire ouest-africaine (UEMOA) et le Club du Sahel et de l’Afrique de l’Ouest (CSAO) de l’OCDE.

3. Variability is main feature of Sahelian climate (past
and present). Coefficient of variation annual rainfall
Sahelian climate

4. Climate change - what we don’t know
Disagreement on CC impact on rainfall in the
Sahel/West Africa – greening vs. drying
Observed and simulated variations in rainfall - ECOWAS

5. Climate change - what we know
Temperatures will increase and likelihood of
extreme weather events will also increase.

6. Understanding climate change interactions
Responding is not just knowing more about future climate,
but also about interactions of climate and other
changes e.g. urbanisation, infrastructure, economy.

7. Population growth and settlement dynamics have
fundamentally transformed the social, economic
and political geography of West Africa.
High population growth always accompanied by
redistribution of population in space – migration and
urbanisation
Demography and settlement

8. Urbanisation and cities
Urbanisation has been the most spectacular
manifestation of population dynamics.
Need to understand urbanisation –
what it looks like, what it means and
what it might mean in the future.

9. The urban network in 1950

10. The urban network in 1980

11. The urban network in 2015

12. Urbanisation - some facts
Urbanisation will continue – 500 million urban in 2050
Few big cities and thousands of small towns (90% of
cities less than 100 000 inhabitants)
Huge investment and planning needs

13. Rural-urban linkages
Moving closer together
Spatial
interactions
between cities,
but also between
rural and urban
environments
have increased
massively over
past decades.

14. Driver of economic transformations
Urbanisation, population and income growth are driving
changes in structure and size of food economy.

15. Linking producers to consumers
Diversifying rural economies