What's New? What's Next? - Asia Pacific Data Digest by Elizabeth Winkle
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An overview of trends in the hospitality industry for the Asia Pacific region by Elizabeth Winkle, Managing Director for STR Global. Presented at the HotelsWorld conference July 2013.
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What's New? What's Next? - Asia Pacific Data Digest by Elizabeth Winkle
- 1. What’s New? What’s Next? The HotelsWorld Data Digest 24th July, 2013 Elizabeth Winkle Managing Director, STR Global
- 2. 2012 RevPAR Growth Year End, RevPar year-on-year % change North America Europe Asia PacMiddle East/Africa +4.8%+6.5% +1.4% Source: STR Global +5.6%
- 3. 2013 RevPAR Growth YTD May 2013, RevPar year-on-year % change +0.7% North America Europe APACMiddle East/Africa +6.1% +8.0% -3.1% Source: STR Global
- 4. % change, Local Currency, YE 2012 -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Shanghai Tokyo New Delhi Melbourne Kuala Lumpur Sydney Seoul Phuket Bali Singapore Beijing Jakarta Bangkok Hong Kong Occupancy ADR Select Asian Markets - 2012 Source: STR Global
- 5. % change, Local Currency, YTD May 2013 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% Shanghai Tokyo New Delhi Melbourne Kuala Lumpur Sydney Seoul Phuket Bali Singapore Beijing Jakarta Bangkok Hong Kong Occupancy ADR Select Asian Markets – YTD Source: STR Global
- 6. Australia Sample – 900 hotels / 115,593 rooms Share by Rooms Greater Sydney Melbourne Gold Coast Brisbane Perth Adelaide Cairns Northern Territories Canberra Sunshine Coast Other Source: STR Global
- 7. 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 May-13 AUD 100 AUD 120 AUD 140 AUD 160 AUD 180 AUD 200RevPAR ADR OCC Australia Rolling 12 238,370 2,624 6,944 Room Supply Existing Recently opened Pipeline ~3% supply increase YTD Growth Occ% 73% 0.2% ADR 176.72 1.5% RevPAR 129.02 1.7%
- 8. 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 AUD 140 AUD 160 AUD 180 AUD 200 AUD 220RevPAR ADR OCC Sydney Central Rolling 12 25,656 612 1,491 Room Supply Existing Recently opened Pipeline ~6% supply increase YTD Growth Occ% 85.2% 0.2% ADR 208.23 2.4% RevPAR 177.32 2.6%
- 9. 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 AUD 100 AUD 120 AUD 140 AUD 160 AUD 180 AUD 200RevPAR ADR OCC Greater Sydney Rolling 12 40,950 1,178 2,030 Room Supply Existing Recently opened Pipeline ~5% supply increase YTD Growth Occ% 82.1% 0.9% ADR 192.88 2.0% RevPAR 158.34 2.9%
- 10. 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 AUD 100 AUD 120 AUD 140 AUD 160 AUD 180 AUD 200RevPAR ADR OCC Melbourne Rolling 12 29,356 454 847 Room Supply Existing Recently opened Pipeline ~3% supply increase YTD Growth Occ% 78.9% 2.1% ADR 179.68 2.0% RevPAR 141.82 4.2%
- 11. 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 AUD 100 AUD 120 AUD 140 AUD 160 AUD 180 AUD 200RevPAR ADR OCC Brisbane Rolling 12 12,180 155 1,150 Room Supply Existing Recently opened Pipeline ~9.5% supply increase YTD Growth Occ% 75.1% -4.2% ADR 179.53 -1.8% RevPAR 134.82 -5.9%
- 12. 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 AUD 120 AUD 140 AUD 160 AUD 180 AUD 200 AUD 220 AUD 240RevPAR ADR OCC Perth Rolling 12 10,396 238 1,006 Room Supply Existing Recently opened Pipeline YTD Growth Occ% 82.7% -3.6% ADR 215.82 1.0% RevPAR 178.47 -2.7% ~9.5% supply increase
- 13. 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 AUD 90 AUD 110 AUD 130 AUD 150 AUD 170 AUD 190RevPAR ADR OCC Gold Coast Rolling 12 16,589 22 0 Room Supply Existing Recently opened Pipeline Nothing new on the horizon YTD Growth Occ% 66.7% 3.4% ADR 159.41 2.2% RevPAR 106.35 5.7%
- 14. 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 AUD 100 AUD 120 AUD 140 AUD 160 AUD 180 AUD 200RevPAR ADR OCC Adelaide Rolling 12 7,018 116 496 Room Supply Existing Recently opened Pipeline ~7% supply increase YTD Growth Occ% 76.1% -2.1% ADR 153.31 -3.3% RevPAR 115.89 -5.3%
- 15. AUD 90 AUD 100 AUD 110 AUD 120 AUD 130 AUD 140 AUD 150 AUD 160 AUD 170 AUD 180 AUD 190 Jul07 Sep07 Nov07 Jan08 Mar08 May08 Jul08 Sep08 Nov08 Jan09 Mar09 May09 Jul09 Sep09 Nov09 Jan10 Mar10 May10 Jul10 Sep10 Nov10 Jan11 Mar11 May11 Jul11 Sep11 Nov11 Jan12 Mar12 May12 Jul-12 Sep-13 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Brisbane Perth Sydney Melbourne Gold Coast Adelaide Australia RevPAR Rolling-12 RevPAR – YTD May 2013
- 16. 66% 68% 70% 72% 74% 76% 78% Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 May-13 NZD 80 NZD 100 NZD 120 NZD 140 NZD 160 NZD 180 NZD 200RevPAR ADR OCC Auckland Rolling 12 YTD Growth Occ% 79.1% 3.0% ADR 144.80 6.6% RevPAR 114.49 9.8%
- 17. 50% 55% 60% 65% Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 May-13 NZD 80 NZD 100 NZD 120 NZD 140 NZD 160 NZD 180RevPAR ADR OCC Queenstown Rolling 12 YTD Growth Occ% 64.9% 6.1% ADR 155.36 2.5% RevPAR 100.86 8.8%
- 18. 64% 66% 68% 70% 72% 74% 76% Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 NZD 80 NZD 100 NZD 120 NZD 140 NZD 160RevPAR ADR OCC Wellington Rolling 12 YTD Growth Occ% 76.1% 4.5% ADR 142.48 1.4% RevPAR 108.42 6.0%
- 19. STR Global, Ltd is the exclusive owner of all rights in this presentation and its content. Reproduction of all or a portion of this presentation for any purpose without prior approval of STR Global is strictly prohibited. This presentation is based on information compiled by STR Global Ltd. No strategic or marketing recommendations or advice are intended or implied. Contact details Elizabeth Winkle +44 (0) 207 922 1930 ewinkle@strglobal.com www.strglobal.com You can follow us on Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn
Editor's Notes
- YE 12In Local CurrencySelected Asian markets% change of occupancy and ADR on prior timeframe
- Given the YOY growth in Thailand, it’s no surprise that Bangkok, Phuket are reporting Occupancy and ADR growth. Bangkok has been named the number one destination for international visitors in 2013's Global Destination Cities Index forecast and is expected to welcome 15.98 million visitors. First time an Asian city has topped the list. Bangkok +8.9% occupancy, ADR + 6.6%Bali and Jakarta sacrificed a bit of occupancy for rate growth of 6.9% and 17% respectivelyTokyo – ADR +7.9%
- Rolling-12 revPAR – looking the long term trend, most of the growth has been in ADR based, post the downturn, RevPAR is 9% up from July 2009.YTD Occupancy has remained relatively flat, nominal growth in ADR, resulting in revPAR of 1.7%. Supply is up 0.9%, demand is up 1.1%, revenue up 2.6%Pipeline – 1/3 of the of projects in the pipeline are “in construction”Of those in construction, 35% are upscale properties
- Rolling-12 revPARLong term trend, Occupancy growth at the expense of rate, occupancy starts to level off and ADR increases. YTD supply up 1.9%, demand +2.1%, revenue up 4.5%Includes 900 bedroom hotel, expansion of the Four Points by Sheraton
- Rolling-12 revPARLong term –rate struggled a bit as occupancy was increasing in 2010, rate growth continues as Occ is posting miminal growthSupply +2.0, Demand +2.9%, revenue +4.9%Inclusive of North, Outer and Sydney Central – 25% of projects are projected to open within the next 18 months.
- Rolling-12 revPARStable performance across all KPIs on a rolling 12 basisYTD, growth across all KPIs, supply +1.2%, demand +3.4%, revenue +5.5%
- Rolling-12 revPARWeakening demand has resulted in slow absorption rate of the newly opened rooms. More supply is planned with 40% of the pipeline rooms projected to come online in time for the G20 summit in November 2014. Supply +1.7%, demand -2.6%, revenue -4.3%Pipeline – 40% of rooms (440) set to open by YE 2014
- Rolling-12 revPARSupply +2.4%, demand -1.3%, revenue -0.4%Softening in demand particularly corporate construction related as mining sector profits have fallen one third since their q3 2011 peak. Expecting the new supply to further impact and I wouldn’t be surprised if some of the projects were abandoned as a majority of the pipeline projects are still in planning with expected openings in 2015 /2016
- Rolling-12 revPARPredominately a seasonal market for leisure demand market. A great deal of supply available which puts pressure on rate growth however for the first five months, revPAR is up 5.7% with occupancy and rate contributing.6 new rooms (0.1%), demand growth of 3.5%, revenue growth of 5.8%
- Rolling-12 revPAROccupancy is same as 2009, rate is down $5 (3%)Feeling the effects of supply growth in 2012 with more rooms in the pipeline for 2013 and through 2014 with~372 rooms to open)Supply growth of 0.7%, demand -1.4%, revenue – 4.7%75% of rooms set projected to open by YE 2014
- Rolling-12 revPAR in AUDA side by side comparison of markets – even with the weakening demand and ADR decreases, Perth still reigns as having the highest achieving ADR 180. The Gold Coast at 107 has reported rate gains in recent months.
- Rolling-12 revPARImpact Rugby World Cup in 2011Total Pipeline – 963 (2.5% of existing), 503 rooms planned for Auckland (11,485)Existing 38,958 New Zealand is set for new growth with destination marketing investment of NZ$158 million Long term trend – impact and benefit from the Rugby World Cup in 2011, followed by the dip in 2012 as the event related demand was not replaced. 2013 is off to a good start, strong RevPAR from ADR growth and occupancy increases. Virtually no new supply YTD (.1%) and 3.1% demand growth, revenue growth of 9.9%
- Rolling-12 revPARQueenstown has seen limited new supply growth YTD just .8% (40 rooms), having finally absorbed the and has successfully absorbed the 276 new rooms which opened between 2011 and 2012Demand, both international and domestic has been strong, increasing 7.0% YTD with revenues increasing 9.7%
- Rolling-12 revPARRelatively stable performance with a boostfrom the Rugby. Demand for the capital grew 4.5% and as supply growth was non-existent YTD, this translated to strong occupancy growth. We would expect rate growth to follow soon if demand trends continue. Revenue increased 5.9%Pipeline suggests 2 more hotels will open in 2014/2015.