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State of the Nation 16 - Spotlight on 2013 Election

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Roy Morgan Research
Roy Morgan Research

Roy Morgan Research CEO, Michele Levine, has presented the latest State of the Nation report at NSW Parliament House in Sydney. The report includes a spotlight on the upcoming Federal Election: voting intentions and demographics, issues of importance, economic, social and government attitudes and analysis of key and marginal seats.

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State of the Nation Australia Spotlight on Federal Election 2013 20th / 21st August 2013
Discover your edge Australians’Voting Intention Base: Australian electors aged 18+ Source: Roy Morgan Research Multi-Mode Survey, August 16 – 18, 2013 51% 49% Government Confidence 104pts vs.
Discover your edge Australia Today [1] Roy Morgan Face-to-Face; August 10/11, 2013; Australian population aged 14+ [2] Roy Morgan Face-to-Face Survey; July 2013; Australian population aged 14+ in Workforce [3] Roy Morgan Business Single Source; July 2013 Unemployment[2] 10.1% p 0.4 9.0% q 0.2 Under Employment[2] Consumer Confidence[1] 113.9 p 1.4 117.3 p 4.7 Business Confidence[3]
Discover your edge Society State of the Nation 2013 The Key Areas of Change
Discover your edge Australia’s Population Society Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics 18,711,300 15,000,000 17,500,000 20,000,000 22,500,000 25,000,000 Jun 98 Jun 99 Jun 00 Jun 01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12D ec 12 (+22.4%) 22,906,400
Discover your edge Australia’s Population by Age Society Base: Australian population aged 0+ Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics 19.6% 15.4% 15.4% 22.5% 27.2% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Jun 98 Jun 99 Jun 00 Jun 01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 25-34 14.4% 14-24 14.8% 35-49 20.8% 50 and over 32.3% 0-13 17.6%
Discover your edge Have a Degree Society Base: Australian population aged 14+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; 12 month moving average 14.7% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Jun 98 Jun 99 Jun 00 Jun 01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 All Australians 14+ with Degree 27.2%
Discover your edge Country of Birth Society Base: Australian population aged 14+; *Approximately 6% are in the ‘Other’ category Source: Roy Morgan Research; 12 month moving average 4.2% 2.0% 7.9% 5.9% 76.7% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Jun 98 Jun 99 Jun 00 Jun 01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Australia (RHS) 71.1% UK/Ireland (LHS) 7.1% New Zealand (LHS) 3.1% Europe (excl.UK/Ireland) (LHS) 3.5% Asia & Middle East (LHS) 9.5%
Discover your edge ProgressiveViews Society Base: Australian population aged 14+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; 12 month moving average 32.1% 28.2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Jun 98 Jun 99 Jun 00 Jun 01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Progressive viewpoint on social issues and social trends 37.7% Attracted to new things and new ideas 35.8%
Discover your edge Progressive Attitudes Society Base: Australian population aged 14+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; 12 month moving average 23.2% 32.0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Jun 98 Jun 99 Jun 00 Jun 01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Homosexual couples should be allowed to adopt children 57.3% Computers and technology give me more control over my life 39.4%
Discover your edge Technology State of the Nation 2013 The Key Areas of Change
Discover your edge Telecommunications Technology Technology Base: Australian population aged 14+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; 12 month moving average 40.3% 96.0% 29.3% 1.4% 19.2% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Jun 98 Jun 99 Jun 00 Jun 01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Have Internet connection at home Have Broadband service at home 73.5% Have home phone connected 75.5% Own or use a mobile phone 90.8% 79.8% Subscribe to Pay TV at home 29.1%
Discover your edge The Rise in New Technology Products Technology *Question revised April 2013 Base: Australian population aged 14+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; 12 month moving average 1.9% 6.8% 16.2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Jun 98 Jun 99 Jun 00 Jun 01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Own a flat screen TV (e.g. plasma or LCD)* 67.7% 55.8% 34.4% Smartphone is Main Mobile phone Own a Tablet Computer
Discover your edge Major Media Types Technology * Data collection methodology changes April 2012 (Radio) and September 2012 (Pay TV) Base: Australian population aged 14+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; 12 month moving average 94.5% 73.2% 29.8% 84.9% 55.3% 88.9% 35.3% 8.3% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Jun 98 Jun 99 Jun 00 Jun 01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Newspapers Internet TV 89.3% Radio* Cinema 26.9% 58.4% Local/Community Newspapers 33.9% 80.5% Pay TV* 22.1% Magazines 73.4% 62.6%
Discover your edge Economy State of the Nation 2013 The Key Areas of Change
Discover your edge Level ofWorkforce Unemployment Economy Source: Roy Morgan Research; Monthly data Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics; Monthly data 9.4% 6.9% 7.3% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13Jul-13 %ofworkforce Roy Morgan Research 10.1% 5.7% 5.7%ABS Seasonally Adjusted ABS Original
Discover your edge Australians in Employment Economy Base: Australian population aged 14+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; 12 month moving average 55.7% (8.3mill) 40% 50% 60% 70% Jun 98 Jun 99 Jun 00 Jun 01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Proportion of population employed 59.4% (11.3 mill)
Discover your edge Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Weekly Short-Term Trend Economy Base: Australian population aged 14+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; Weekly data 80.0 85.0 90.0 95.0 100.0 105.0 110.0 115.0 120.0 125.0 130.0 135.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr Ma Jun Jul Au Se Oct No De Jan Feb Mar Apr Ma Jun Jul Au Se Oct No De Jan Feb Mar Apr Ma Jun Jul Au 20132012 August 10/11 2013, RMCC - 113.9 2011 2
Discover your edge Consumer Confidence and Business Confidence 131.5 132.9 129.5 130.5 128.2 119.5 107.8 99.8 101.8 108.1 112.6 115.7 117.2 118.7 116.6 108.9 112.2 105.8105.4 109.6 117.6 109.3 114.0 116.8 114.8 122.5 123.8 122.9 120.0 113.8 112.7 117.3 120.6 116.2 90 100 110 120 130 140ConfidenceScore Business Confidence Consumer Confidence
Discover your edge Business Confidence State Breakdown Economy Base: Australian Businesses Source: Roy Morgan Research; May 2013 to July 2013 116.6 116.3 111.6 110.9 119.1 114.5 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 Tasmania Victoria Western Australia New South Wales South Australia Queensland
Discover your edge Voting Intention
Discover your edge Long Term Voting Intention 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% A ug-13 Jun-13 Jun-12 Jun-11 Election 2010 Jun-10 Jun-09 Jun-08 Election 2007 Jun-07 Jun-06 Jun-05 Election 2004 Jun-04 Jun-03 Jun-02 Election 2001 Jun-01 Jun-00 H o ward re-elected fo r 4th term at 2004 Electio n. Latham's stumbles and T asmanian T imber Unio n suppo rt help H o ward to win. L-N P (52.5%); A LP (47.5%) C rean replaces B eazley as Oppn. Leader after 2001 Electio n defeat Latham replaces C rean as Oppn. Leader in D ec 2003 B eazley replaces Latham as Oppn. Leader 56% 44% M alco lm T urnbull replaces N elso n as Oppn. Leader T o ny A bbo tt replaces T urnbull as Oppn. Leader Iraq War begins September 11 & War o n T erro r in A fghanistan Glo bal F inancial C risis begins as Lehman B ro thers bankrupts R udd Go vernment stimulus packages B arack Obama elected US P resident Oil @ $ 150 a barrel R B A raises interest rates to 12 year high o f 7.25% A WB Iraqi bribery scandal "Oil fo r F o o d" Geo rge B ush re-elected as US P resident ALP: 49% L-NP: 51% Julia Gillard pro po ses to intro duce a price o n carbo n by 2012 H o ward re-elected fo r a 3rd term at 2001 Electio n so o n after September 11. 'C hildren Overbo ard' claims and T ampa refugees incident also help H o ward win. L-N P (51%); A LP (49%) R udd-led A LP wins Go vernment after 11 years in Oppo sitio n. A LP (52.7%); L-N P (47.3%). B rendan N elso n is the new Oppn. Leader Julia Gillard elected after first H ung P arliament since 1940. A LP (50.1%); L-N P (49.9%) ALP L-NP Kevin R udd wins A LP leadership ballo t 57-45 o ver Julia Gillard
Discover your edge Short Term Voting Intention FederalElection2010 Aug28/29&Sep4/5 Sep18/19 Oct9/10&16/17 Nov6/7&13/14 Dec4/5 Dec10-12* Dec11/12 Jan15/16&22/23 Jan29/30&Feb5/6 Feb21-23* Mar5/6 Mar12/13 Mar19/20 Mar26/27 April9/10&16/17 May3-5* May14/15 May31-June2* June11/12&18/19 July9/10 July16/17&23/24 Aug9/10 Aug27/28&Sep3/4 Sep24/25&Oct1/2 Oct15/16 Oct25/26* Nov2/3* Nov19/20 Dec10/11&17/18 Jan17/18* Jan28/29 Feb7/8 Feb25/26 Mar10/11&17/18 Mar31/April1 April17-19* May5/6 May12/13 May26/27 June9/10 June30/July1&7/8 July28/29&Aug4/5 Sep1/2 Sep17-20* Sep29/30&Oct6/7 Oct27/28&Nov3/4 Nov27-29* Dec8/9&15/16 Jan19/20&26/27 Feb9/10 Feb28-Mar3 Mar14-17 Mar28-31 April12-14 April26-28 May10-12 May24-26 June7-10 June21-23 June28-30 July12-14 July26-28 Aug9-11 % FEDERAL: TWO-PARTY PREFERREDL-NP ALP L-NP: 51% ALP: 49% * Telephone 2010 Federal election won narrowly by the ALP with the support of Independents. The RBA raises interest rates 25bp in November to 4.75%. Julia Gillard proposes to introduce a price on carbon by mid 2012 The RBA cuts interest rates 25bp in Nov & Dec to 4.25%. Julia Gillard defeats Kevin Rudd 73-31 in leadership challenge The RBA cuts interest rates by 50bp in May 2012, 25bp in June, 25bp in October, 25bp in December, 25bp in May 2013 and 25bp in August to a record low of 2.50% 2010 2011 2012 2013 Kevin Rudd wins the ALP leadership ballot 57-45 over Julia Gillard The two contentious tax proposals of the Gillard Govt. The Carbon Tax and the MIning Tax are introduced on July 1, 2012 Aug16-18
Discover your edge Attitudes toward the Government Politics Base: Australian population aged 14+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; 12 month moving average 57.8% 34.3% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Jun 98 Jun 99 Jun 00 Jun 01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 The government is doing a good job running the country 29.6% I don't trust the current Australian Government 59.6%
Discover your edge Federal Election 2010 vs 2013
Discover your edge Top 10 Issues 2010 and 2013 Base: Australian Electors aged 18+, Aug 2009 – Jul 2010; 35.4% 26.2% 21.4% 16.6% 16.6% 14.9% 14.3% 13.3% 12.6% 11.5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Keeping day to day living costs down Improving health services and hospitals Managing the economy Open and honest government Improving education Reducing crime and maintaining law and order Reducing the taxes you and your family pay The needs of families Reducing the number of illegal migrants coming to Australia Global warming and climate change 36.4% 31.6% 22.7% 17.7% 16.8% 15.6% 14.9% 13.2% 13.3% 12.7% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Keeping day to day living costs down * Improving health services and hospitals Managing the economy Reducing the taxes you and your family pay Open and honest government The needs of families Improving education Global warming and climate change Fair workplace and employment regulations Reducing crime and maintaining law and order
Discover your edge Most Important Issues Facing theWorld Base: Australian population aged 14+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; Nation-wide telephone poll, April 12-13, 2013 (n = 656) 10% 52% Terrorism & War 48% Economic 16% 17% 12% Environmental 0 20 40 60 N ov05Apr-06M ay-08N ov-08M ay-09N ov-09Feb-10Jun-10Sep-10D ec-10Feb-11M ar-11Jun-11 Jul-11O ct-11Jan-12Apr-12 Jul-12N ov-12Jan-13Apr-13Jul-13Aug-13 (%)
Discover your edge Most Important Issues Facing Australia Base: Australian population aged 14+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; Nation-wide telephone poll, April 12-13, 2013 (n = 656) 1% 21% 49% 14% 7% 15% 17% 4% 8%9% 9% 4% 5% 6% 0 20 40 60 N ov05Apr-06M ay-08N ov-08M ay-09N ov-09Feb-10Jun-10Sep-10D ec-10Feb-11M ar-11Jun-11Jul-11O ct-11Jan-12Apr-12Jul-12N ov-12Jan-13Apr-13Jul-13Aug-13 (%) Religion/ Immigration/ Human Rights Economic Issues Environmental Issues Politics & Leadership Terrorism & War Social Issues Health Issues
Discover your edge Most Important Problems facing the World 2010 vs 2013
Discover your edge Most Important Problems facing Australia 2010 vs 2013
Discover your edge Most Important Problems facing Australia 2010 vs 2013 Unemployment now seen as the most important issue by 11% ( up from 4%) Real Unemployment now 10% ( up from 6% in 2010)
Discover your edge The Economy/ Economic/ Interest Rate problems (21%) “The economy. Everyone just keeps borrowing money – but who is going to pay for it?” “Economics. There is not enough money to go around and businesses are closing down.” “The economy. It is the engine for the country, but the economy is the main thing.” “I think it is the economy. We need to get the Australian economy going, or else Australia will just not be right.” “The major issue is probably the economy. Particularly in relation to government debt.”
Discover your edge Refugees & Asylum Seeker Problems (12%) “Asylum seekers are at the top of my list. Normal asylum seekers or people who come into the country are fine, but not people who come in through the back door.” “All these boat people coming here, it’s a huge problem.” “Asylum seekers. They should come the proper way, via the refugee channels, not by boats.” “The boat people are our biggest problem at the moment. All our money is going elsewhere to deal with the problem.” “Boat people. Too many. I think they should know English before they come into this country.”
Discover your edge Unemployment Problems (11%) “Employment and unemployment. There is not enough work for younger people these days.” “Unemployment. The availability of secure jobs for people these days.” “Employment – and the lack of employment.” “Job security is low.” “Losing jobs to overseas.” “Unemployment and what’s happening with our farmers & orchardists. We need to keep work for our people & safe food.”
Discover your edge Politics/ Leadership/ Kevin Rudd/ Tony Abbot Problems (8%) “The parliamentary system. The system itself is broken.” ”Politicians. They’re all just blood-suckers.” “Politics in general. Most of them don’t do it well.” “The fact that both sides of politics are involved in trying to outwit each other rather than better Australia.” “The absolute lack of good government and lack of sensible in politics.” ”The lack of vision and leadership from our politicians.”
Discover your edge Consumer Confidence - Electors 2010 vs 2013 122.7 114.5 100 105 110 115 120 125 July 2010 July 2013 Base: Australian Electors aged 18+, Aug 2009 – Jul 2010 and Aug 2012 – Jul 2013;
Discover your edge Economic Attitudes - Electors 2010 vs 2013 68.0% 67.3% 40.5% 33.6% 67.7% 31.6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% The Australian economy appears to be improving Recently I've cut down my spending I'm worried about interest rates at the moment July 2010 July 2013 Base: Australian Electors aged 18+, Aug 2009 – Jul 2010 and Aug 2012 – Jul 2013;
Discover your edge Government Attitudes - Electors 2010 vs 2013 30.9% 59.3% 47.9% 43.8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% The Government is doing a good job running the country I don't trust the current Australian Government July 2010 July 2013 Base: Australian Electors aged 18+, Aug 2009 – Jul 2010 and Aug 2012 – Jul 2013;
Discover your edge Progressive Attitudes - Electors 2010 vs 2013 34.7% 32.9% 37.6% 35.4% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Progressive viewpoint on social issues and trends Attracted to new ideas and new things July 2010 July 2013 Base: Australian Electors aged 18+, Aug 2009 – Jul 2010 and Aug 2012 – Jul 2013;
Discover your edge Progressive Attitudes - Electors (cont) 2010 vs 2013 44.7% 34.3% 55.4% 37.8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Homosexual couples should be allowed to adopt children Computers and technology give me more control over my life July 2010 July 2013 Base: Australian Electors aged 18+, Aug 2009 – Jul 2010 and Aug 2012 – Jul 2013;
Discover your edge Which Party is Considered Better for Key Issues
Discover your edge Which party is better for Health? 45.0% 34.6% 31.3% 35.1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% July 2010 July 2013 ALP Considered Better L-NP Considered Better Base: Australian Electors aged 18+, Aug 2009 – Jul 2010 and Aug 2012 – Jul 2013;
Discover your edge Which party is better for Economy? 37.0% 28.6% 44.8% 45.8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% July 2010 July 2013 ALP Considered Better L-NP Considered Better Base: Australian Electors aged 18+, Aug 2009 – Jul 2010 and Aug 2012 – Jul 2013;
Discover your edge Which party is better for Honest Government? 28.7% 20.3% 27.1% 30.7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% July 2010 July 2013 ALP Considered Better L-NP Considered Better Base: Australian Electors aged 18+, Aug 2009 – Jul 2010 and Aug 2012 – Jul 2013;
Discover your edge Which party is better for Education? 45.6% 35.9% 31.4% 34.2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% July 2010 July 2013 ALP Considered Better L-NP Considered Better Base: Australian Electors aged 18+, Aug 2009 – Jul 2010 and Aug 2012 – Jul 2013;
Discover your edge Which party is better for GlobalWarming? 25.5% 23.7% 20.0% 23.5% 0% 10% 20% 30% July 2010 July 2013 ALP Considered Better L-NP Considered Better Base: Australian Electors aged 18+, Aug 2009 – Jul 2010 and Aug 2012 – Jul 2013;
Discover your edge Issues of Importance by Electorate
Discover your edge Issues in Key Marginal Seats (2013) ALP L/NP Electorate Top 5 Issues Bottom 5 Issues Electorate Top 5 Issues Bottom 5 Issues Deakin VIC 0.6% Costs Rural needs Hasluck WA 0.6% Costs Rural needs Health Defence Crime Defence Economy Business Health Business Global Warming Interest rates Illegal migrants Workplace Government Immigration Economy Interest rates Lindsay NSW 1.1% Costs Rural needs Aston VIC 0.7% Costs Rural needs Health Business Health Defence Taxes Immigration Economy Immigration Economy Workplace Education Business Illegal migrants Global Warming Global Warming Illegal migrants Moreton QLD 1.1% Costs Rural needs Brisbane QLD 1.1% Economy Rural needs Economy Defence Costs Defence Health Immigration Health Interest rates Government Unemployment Government Illegal migrants Education Interest rates Education Immigration Lingiari NT 3.7% Costs Unemployment Forde* QLD 1.6% Costs Global Warming Crime Business Crime Rural needs Government Interest rates Illegal migrants Interest rates Health Workplace Government Defence Economy Ageing Health Business Eden- Monaro NSW 4.2% Health Business Bennelong* * NSW 3.1% Costs Rural needs Costs Defence Health Defence Government Unemployment Economy Ageing Ageing Rural needs Education Immigration Economy Immigration Government Unemployment
Discover your edge Consumer Confidence High: Moore WA 135.8 Low: Fowler NSW 91.0 Base: Australians Electors aged 18+ Source: Roy Morgan Research Single Source; Jul 2012 – Jun 2013
Discover your edge Unemployment High: Fowler NSW 21.0% Low: Riverina NSW 0.1% Base: Australians Electors aged 18+ Source: Roy Morgan Research Single Source; Jul 2012 – Jun 2013
Discover your edge Health Services and Hospitals High: Lyons TAS 46.2% Low: Moore WA 16.4% Base: Australians Electors aged 18+ Source: Roy Morgan Research Single Source; Oct 2010 – Jun 2013
Discover your edge Managing the Economy High: Brisbane QLD 37.6% Low: Durack WA 12.2% Base: Australians Electors aged 18+ Source: Roy Morgan Research Single Source; Oct 2010 – Jun 2013
Discover your edge Open and Honest Government High: Grayndler NSW 25.8% Low: Corangamite VIC 10.3% Base: Australians Electors aged 18+ Source: Roy Morgan Research Single Source; Oct 2010 – Jun 2013
Discover your edge Improving Education High: Melbourne VIC 31.7% Low: Canning WA 6.0% Base: Australians Electors aged 18+ Source: Roy Morgan Research Single Source; Oct 2010 – Jun 2013
Discover your edge Illegal Immigrants High: Maranoa QLD 22.5% Low: Melbourne Ports VIC 2.8% Base: Australians Electors aged 18+ Source: Roy Morgan Research Single Source; Oct 2010 – Jun 2013
Discover your edge GlobalWarming High: Kooyong VIC 31.6% Low: Capricornia QLD 3.1% Base: Australians Electors aged 18+ Source: Roy Morgan Research Single Source; Oct 2010 – Jun 2013
State of the Nation 16 - Spotlight on 2013 Election

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State of the Nation 16 - Spotlight on 2013 Election

  • 1. State of the Nation Australia Spotlight on Federal Election 2013 20th / 21st August 2013
  • 2. Discover your edge Australians’Voting Intention Base: Australian electors aged 18+ Source: Roy Morgan Research Multi-Mode Survey, August 16 – 18, 2013 51% 49% Government Confidence 104pts vs.
  • 3. Discover your edge Australia Today [1] Roy Morgan Face-to-Face; August 10/11, 2013; Australian population aged 14+ [2] Roy Morgan Face-to-Face Survey; July 2013; Australian population aged 14+ in Workforce [3] Roy Morgan Business Single Source; July 2013 Unemployment[2] 10.1% p 0.4 9.0% q 0.2 Under Employment[2] Consumer Confidence[1] 113.9 p 1.4 117.3 p 4.7 Business Confidence[3]
  • 4. Discover your edge Society State of the Nation 2013 The Key Areas of Change
  • 5. Discover your edge Australia’s Population Society Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics 18,711,300 15,000,000 17,500,000 20,000,000 22,500,000 25,000,000 Jun 98 Jun 99 Jun 00 Jun 01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12D ec 12 (+22.4%) 22,906,400
  • 6. Discover your edge Australia’s Population by Age Society Base: Australian population aged 0+ Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics 19.6% 15.4% 15.4% 22.5% 27.2% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Jun 98 Jun 99 Jun 00 Jun 01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 25-34 14.4% 14-24 14.8% 35-49 20.8% 50 and over 32.3% 0-13 17.6%
  • 7. Discover your edge Have a Degree Society Base: Australian population aged 14+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; 12 month moving average 14.7% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Jun 98 Jun 99 Jun 00 Jun 01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 All Australians 14+ with Degree 27.2%
  • 8. Discover your edge Country of Birth Society Base: Australian population aged 14+; *Approximately 6% are in the ‘Other’ category Source: Roy Morgan Research; 12 month moving average 4.2% 2.0% 7.9% 5.9% 76.7% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Jun 98 Jun 99 Jun 00 Jun 01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Australia (RHS) 71.1% UK/Ireland (LHS) 7.1% New Zealand (LHS) 3.1% Europe (excl.UK/Ireland) (LHS) 3.5% Asia & Middle East (LHS) 9.5%
  • 9. Discover your edge ProgressiveViews Society Base: Australian population aged 14+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; 12 month moving average 32.1% 28.2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Jun 98 Jun 99 Jun 00 Jun 01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Progressive viewpoint on social issues and social trends 37.7% Attracted to new things and new ideas 35.8%
  • 10. Discover your edge Progressive Attitudes Society Base: Australian population aged 14+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; 12 month moving average 23.2% 32.0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Jun 98 Jun 99 Jun 00 Jun 01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Homosexual couples should be allowed to adopt children 57.3% Computers and technology give me more control over my life 39.4%
  • 11. Discover your edge Technology State of the Nation 2013 The Key Areas of Change
  • 12. Discover your edge Telecommunications Technology Technology Base: Australian population aged 14+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; 12 month moving average 40.3% 96.0% 29.3% 1.4% 19.2% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Jun 98 Jun 99 Jun 00 Jun 01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Have Internet connection at home Have Broadband service at home 73.5% Have home phone connected 75.5% Own or use a mobile phone 90.8% 79.8% Subscribe to Pay TV at home 29.1%
  • 13. Discover your edge The Rise in New Technology Products Technology *Question revised April 2013 Base: Australian population aged 14+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; 12 month moving average 1.9% 6.8% 16.2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Jun 98 Jun 99 Jun 00 Jun 01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Own a flat screen TV (e.g. plasma or LCD)* 67.7% 55.8% 34.4% Smartphone is Main Mobile phone Own a Tablet Computer
  • 14. Discover your edge Major Media Types Technology * Data collection methodology changes April 2012 (Radio) and September 2012 (Pay TV) Base: Australian population aged 14+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; 12 month moving average 94.5% 73.2% 29.8% 84.9% 55.3% 88.9% 35.3% 8.3% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Jun 98 Jun 99 Jun 00 Jun 01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Newspapers Internet TV 89.3% Radio* Cinema 26.9% 58.4% Local/Community Newspapers 33.9% 80.5% Pay TV* 22.1% Magazines 73.4% 62.6%
  • 15. Discover your edge Economy State of the Nation 2013 The Key Areas of Change
  • 16. Discover your edge Level ofWorkforce Unemployment Economy Source: Roy Morgan Research; Monthly data Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics; Monthly data 9.4% 6.9% 7.3% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13Jul-13 %ofworkforce Roy Morgan Research 10.1% 5.7% 5.7%ABS Seasonally Adjusted ABS Original
  • 17. Discover your edge Australians in Employment Economy Base: Australian population aged 14+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; 12 month moving average 55.7% (8.3mill) 40% 50% 60% 70% Jun 98 Jun 99 Jun 00 Jun 01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Proportion of population employed 59.4% (11.3 mill)
  • 18. Discover your edge Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Weekly Short-Term Trend Economy Base: Australian population aged 14+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; Weekly data 80.0 85.0 90.0 95.0 100.0 105.0 110.0 115.0 120.0 125.0 130.0 135.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr Ma Jun Jul Au Se Oct No De Jan Feb Mar Apr Ma Jun Jul Au Se Oct No De Jan Feb Mar Apr Ma Jun Jul Au 20132012 August 10/11 2013, RMCC - 113.9 2011 2
  • 19. Discover your edge Consumer Confidence and Business Confidence 131.5 132.9 129.5 130.5 128.2 119.5 107.8 99.8 101.8 108.1 112.6 115.7 117.2 118.7 116.6 108.9 112.2 105.8105.4 109.6 117.6 109.3 114.0 116.8 114.8 122.5 123.8 122.9 120.0 113.8 112.7 117.3 120.6 116.2 90 100 110 120 130 140ConfidenceScore Business Confidence Consumer Confidence
  • 20. Discover your edge Business Confidence State Breakdown Economy Base: Australian Businesses Source: Roy Morgan Research; May 2013 to July 2013 116.6 116.3 111.6 110.9 119.1 114.5 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 Tasmania Victoria Western Australia New South Wales South Australia Queensland
  • 22. Discover your edge Long Term Voting Intention 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% A ug-13 Jun-13 Jun-12 Jun-11 Election 2010 Jun-10 Jun-09 Jun-08 Election 2007 Jun-07 Jun-06 Jun-05 Election 2004 Jun-04 Jun-03 Jun-02 Election 2001 Jun-01 Jun-00 H o ward re-elected fo r 4th term at 2004 Electio n. Latham's stumbles and T asmanian T imber Unio n suppo rt help H o ward to win. L-N P (52.5%); A LP (47.5%) C rean replaces B eazley as Oppn. Leader after 2001 Electio n defeat Latham replaces C rean as Oppn. Leader in D ec 2003 B eazley replaces Latham as Oppn. Leader 56% 44% M alco lm T urnbull replaces N elso n as Oppn. Leader T o ny A bbo tt replaces T urnbull as Oppn. Leader Iraq War begins September 11 & War o n T erro r in A fghanistan Glo bal F inancial C risis begins as Lehman B ro thers bankrupts R udd Go vernment stimulus packages B arack Obama elected US P resident Oil @ $ 150 a barrel R B A raises interest rates to 12 year high o f 7.25% A WB Iraqi bribery scandal "Oil fo r F o o d" Geo rge B ush re-elected as US P resident ALP: 49% L-NP: 51% Julia Gillard pro po ses to intro duce a price o n carbo n by 2012 H o ward re-elected fo r a 3rd term at 2001 Electio n so o n after September 11. 'C hildren Overbo ard' claims and T ampa refugees incident also help H o ward win. L-N P (51%); A LP (49%) R udd-led A LP wins Go vernment after 11 years in Oppo sitio n. A LP (52.7%); L-N P (47.3%). B rendan N elso n is the new Oppn. Leader Julia Gillard elected after first H ung P arliament since 1940. A LP (50.1%); L-N P (49.9%) ALP L-NP Kevin R udd wins A LP leadership ballo t 57-45 o ver Julia Gillard
  • 23. Discover your edge Short Term Voting Intention FederalElection2010 Aug28/29&Sep4/5 Sep18/19 Oct9/10&16/17 Nov6/7&13/14 Dec4/5 Dec10-12* Dec11/12 Jan15/16&22/23 Jan29/30&Feb5/6 Feb21-23* Mar5/6 Mar12/13 Mar19/20 Mar26/27 April9/10&16/17 May3-5* May14/15 May31-June2* June11/12&18/19 July9/10 July16/17&23/24 Aug9/10 Aug27/28&Sep3/4 Sep24/25&Oct1/2 Oct15/16 Oct25/26* Nov2/3* Nov19/20 Dec10/11&17/18 Jan17/18* Jan28/29 Feb7/8 Feb25/26 Mar10/11&17/18 Mar31/April1 April17-19* May5/6 May12/13 May26/27 June9/10 June30/July1&7/8 July28/29&Aug4/5 Sep1/2 Sep17-20* Sep29/30&Oct6/7 Oct27/28&Nov3/4 Nov27-29* Dec8/9&15/16 Jan19/20&26/27 Feb9/10 Feb28-Mar3 Mar14-17 Mar28-31 April12-14 April26-28 May10-12 May24-26 June7-10 June21-23 June28-30 July12-14 July26-28 Aug9-11 % FEDERAL: TWO-PARTY PREFERREDL-NP ALP L-NP: 51% ALP: 49% * Telephone 2010 Federal election won narrowly by the ALP with the support of Independents. The RBA raises interest rates 25bp in November to 4.75%. Julia Gillard proposes to introduce a price on carbon by mid 2012 The RBA cuts interest rates 25bp in Nov & Dec to 4.25%. Julia Gillard defeats Kevin Rudd 73-31 in leadership challenge The RBA cuts interest rates by 50bp in May 2012, 25bp in June, 25bp in October, 25bp in December, 25bp in May 2013 and 25bp in August to a record low of 2.50% 2010 2011 2012 2013 Kevin Rudd wins the ALP leadership ballot 57-45 over Julia Gillard The two contentious tax proposals of the Gillard Govt. The Carbon Tax and the MIning Tax are introduced on July 1, 2012 Aug16-18
  • 24. Discover your edge Attitudes toward the Government Politics Base: Australian population aged 14+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; 12 month moving average 57.8% 34.3% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Jun 98 Jun 99 Jun 00 Jun 01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 The government is doing a good job running the country 29.6% I don't trust the current Australian Government 59.6%
  • 25. Discover your edge Federal Election 2010 vs 2013
  • 26. Discover your edge Top 10 Issues 2010 and 2013 Base: Australian Electors aged 18+, Aug 2009 – Jul 2010; 35.4% 26.2% 21.4% 16.6% 16.6% 14.9% 14.3% 13.3% 12.6% 11.5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Keeping day to day living costs down Improving health services and hospitals Managing the economy Open and honest government Improving education Reducing crime and maintaining law and order Reducing the taxes you and your family pay The needs of families Reducing the number of illegal migrants coming to Australia Global warming and climate change 36.4% 31.6% 22.7% 17.7% 16.8% 15.6% 14.9% 13.2% 13.3% 12.7% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Keeping day to day living costs down * Improving health services and hospitals Managing the economy Reducing the taxes you and your family pay Open and honest government The needs of families Improving education Global warming and climate change Fair workplace and employment regulations Reducing crime and maintaining law and order
  • 27. Discover your edge Most Important Issues Facing theWorld Base: Australian population aged 14+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; Nation-wide telephone poll, April 12-13, 2013 (n = 656) 10% 52% Terrorism & War 48% Economic 16% 17% 12% Environmental 0 20 40 60 N ov05Apr-06M ay-08N ov-08M ay-09N ov-09Feb-10Jun-10Sep-10D ec-10Feb-11M ar-11Jun-11 Jul-11O ct-11Jan-12Apr-12 Jul-12N ov-12Jan-13Apr-13Jul-13Aug-13 (%)
  • 28. Discover your edge Most Important Issues Facing Australia Base: Australian population aged 14+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; Nation-wide telephone poll, April 12-13, 2013 (n = 656) 1% 21% 49% 14% 7% 15% 17% 4% 8%9% 9% 4% 5% 6% 0 20 40 60 N ov05Apr-06M ay-08N ov-08M ay-09N ov-09Feb-10Jun-10Sep-10D ec-10Feb-11M ar-11Jun-11Jul-11O ct-11Jan-12Apr-12Jul-12N ov-12Jan-13Apr-13Jul-13Aug-13 (%) Religion/ Immigration/ Human Rights Economic Issues Environmental Issues Politics & Leadership Terrorism & War Social Issues Health Issues
  • 29. Discover your edge Most Important Problems facing the World 2010 vs 2013
  • 30. Discover your edge Most Important Problems facing Australia 2010 vs 2013
  • 31. Discover your edge Most Important Problems facing Australia 2010 vs 2013 Unemployment now seen as the most important issue by 11% ( up from 4%) Real Unemployment now 10% ( up from 6% in 2010)
  • 32. Discover your edge The Economy/ Economic/ Interest Rate problems (21%) “The economy. Everyone just keeps borrowing money – but who is going to pay for it?” “Economics. There is not enough money to go around and businesses are closing down.” “The economy. It is the engine for the country, but the economy is the main thing.” “I think it is the economy. We need to get the Australian economy going, or else Australia will just not be right.” “The major issue is probably the economy. Particularly in relation to government debt.”
  • 33. Discover your edge Refugees & Asylum Seeker Problems (12%) “Asylum seekers are at the top of my list. Normal asylum seekers or people who come into the country are fine, but not people who come in through the back door.” “All these boat people coming here, it’s a huge problem.” “Asylum seekers. They should come the proper way, via the refugee channels, not by boats.” “The boat people are our biggest problem at the moment. All our money is going elsewhere to deal with the problem.” “Boat people. Too many. I think they should know English before they come into this country.”
  • 34. Discover your edge Unemployment Problems (11%) “Employment and unemployment. There is not enough work for younger people these days.” “Unemployment. The availability of secure jobs for people these days.” “Employment – and the lack of employment.” “Job security is low.” “Losing jobs to overseas.” “Unemployment and what’s happening with our farmers & orchardists. We need to keep work for our people & safe food.”
  • 35. Discover your edge Politics/ Leadership/ Kevin Rudd/ Tony Abbot Problems (8%) “The parliamentary system. The system itself is broken.” ”Politicians. They’re all just blood-suckers.” “Politics in general. Most of them don’t do it well.” “The fact that both sides of politics are involved in trying to outwit each other rather than better Australia.” “The absolute lack of good government and lack of sensible in politics.” ”The lack of vision and leadership from our politicians.”
  • 36. Discover your edge Consumer Confidence - Electors 2010 vs 2013 122.7 114.5 100 105 110 115 120 125 July 2010 July 2013 Base: Australian Electors aged 18+, Aug 2009 – Jul 2010 and Aug 2012 – Jul 2013;
  • 37. Discover your edge Economic Attitudes - Electors 2010 vs 2013 68.0% 67.3% 40.5% 33.6% 67.7% 31.6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% The Australian economy appears to be improving Recently I've cut down my spending I'm worried about interest rates at the moment July 2010 July 2013 Base: Australian Electors aged 18+, Aug 2009 – Jul 2010 and Aug 2012 – Jul 2013;
  • 38. Discover your edge Government Attitudes - Electors 2010 vs 2013 30.9% 59.3% 47.9% 43.8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% The Government is doing a good job running the country I don't trust the current Australian Government July 2010 July 2013 Base: Australian Electors aged 18+, Aug 2009 – Jul 2010 and Aug 2012 – Jul 2013;
  • 39. Discover your edge Progressive Attitudes - Electors 2010 vs 2013 34.7% 32.9% 37.6% 35.4% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Progressive viewpoint on social issues and trends Attracted to new ideas and new things July 2010 July 2013 Base: Australian Electors aged 18+, Aug 2009 – Jul 2010 and Aug 2012 – Jul 2013;
  • 40. Discover your edge Progressive Attitudes - Electors (cont) 2010 vs 2013 44.7% 34.3% 55.4% 37.8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Homosexual couples should be allowed to adopt children Computers and technology give me more control over my life July 2010 July 2013 Base: Australian Electors aged 18+, Aug 2009 – Jul 2010 and Aug 2012 – Jul 2013;
  • 41. Discover your edge Which Party is Considered Better for Key Issues
  • 42. Discover your edge Which party is better for Health? 45.0% 34.6% 31.3% 35.1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% July 2010 July 2013 ALP Considered Better L-NP Considered Better Base: Australian Electors aged 18+, Aug 2009 – Jul 2010 and Aug 2012 – Jul 2013;
  • 43. Discover your edge Which party is better for Economy? 37.0% 28.6% 44.8% 45.8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% July 2010 July 2013 ALP Considered Better L-NP Considered Better Base: Australian Electors aged 18+, Aug 2009 – Jul 2010 and Aug 2012 – Jul 2013;
  • 44. Discover your edge Which party is better for Honest Government? 28.7% 20.3% 27.1% 30.7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% July 2010 July 2013 ALP Considered Better L-NP Considered Better Base: Australian Electors aged 18+, Aug 2009 – Jul 2010 and Aug 2012 – Jul 2013;
  • 45. Discover your edge Which party is better for Education? 45.6% 35.9% 31.4% 34.2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% July 2010 July 2013 ALP Considered Better L-NP Considered Better Base: Australian Electors aged 18+, Aug 2009 – Jul 2010 and Aug 2012 – Jul 2013;
  • 46. Discover your edge Which party is better for GlobalWarming? 25.5% 23.7% 20.0% 23.5% 0% 10% 20% 30% July 2010 July 2013 ALP Considered Better L-NP Considered Better Base: Australian Electors aged 18+, Aug 2009 – Jul 2010 and Aug 2012 – Jul 2013;
  • 47. Discover your edge Issues of Importance by Electorate
  • 48. Discover your edge Issues in Key Marginal Seats (2013) ALP L/NP Electorate Top 5 Issues Bottom 5 Issues Electorate Top 5 Issues Bottom 5 Issues Deakin VIC 0.6% Costs Rural needs Hasluck WA 0.6% Costs Rural needs Health Defence Crime Defence Economy Business Health Business Global Warming Interest rates Illegal migrants Workplace Government Immigration Economy Interest rates Lindsay NSW 1.1% Costs Rural needs Aston VIC 0.7% Costs Rural needs Health Business Health Defence Taxes Immigration Economy Immigration Economy Workplace Education Business Illegal migrants Global Warming Global Warming Illegal migrants Moreton QLD 1.1% Costs Rural needs Brisbane QLD 1.1% Economy Rural needs Economy Defence Costs Defence Health Immigration Health Interest rates Government Unemployment Government Illegal migrants Education Interest rates Education Immigration Lingiari NT 3.7% Costs Unemployment Forde* QLD 1.6% Costs Global Warming Crime Business Crime Rural needs Government Interest rates Illegal migrants Interest rates Health Workplace Government Defence Economy Ageing Health Business Eden- Monaro NSW 4.2% Health Business Bennelong* * NSW 3.1% Costs Rural needs Costs Defence Health Defence Government Unemployment Economy Ageing Ageing Rural needs Education Immigration Economy Immigration Government Unemployment
  • 49. Discover your edge Consumer Confidence High: Moore WA 135.8 Low: Fowler NSW 91.0 Base: Australians Electors aged 18+ Source: Roy Morgan Research Single Source; Jul 2012 – Jun 2013
  • 50. Discover your edge Unemployment High: Fowler NSW 21.0% Low: Riverina NSW 0.1% Base: Australians Electors aged 18+ Source: Roy Morgan Research Single Source; Jul 2012 – Jun 2013
  • 51. Discover your edge Health Services and Hospitals High: Lyons TAS 46.2% Low: Moore WA 16.4% Base: Australians Electors aged 18+ Source: Roy Morgan Research Single Source; Oct 2010 – Jun 2013
  • 52. Discover your edge Managing the Economy High: Brisbane QLD 37.6% Low: Durack WA 12.2% Base: Australians Electors aged 18+ Source: Roy Morgan Research Single Source; Oct 2010 – Jun 2013
  • 53. Discover your edge Open and Honest Government High: Grayndler NSW 25.8% Low: Corangamite VIC 10.3% Base: Australians Electors aged 18+ Source: Roy Morgan Research Single Source; Oct 2010 – Jun 2013
  • 54. Discover your edge Improving Education High: Melbourne VIC 31.7% Low: Canning WA 6.0% Base: Australians Electors aged 18+ Source: Roy Morgan Research Single Source; Oct 2010 – Jun 2013
  • 55. Discover your edge Illegal Immigrants High: Maranoa QLD 22.5% Low: Melbourne Ports VIC 2.8% Base: Australians Electors aged 18+ Source: Roy Morgan Research Single Source; Oct 2010 – Jun 2013
  • 56. Discover your edge GlobalWarming High: Kooyong VIC 31.6% Low: Capricornia QLD 3.1% Base: Australians Electors aged 18+ Source: Roy Morgan Research Single Source; Oct 2010 – Jun 2013