“Creeping hazards” refer to a subset geohazards that are protracted over a relatively long period of time. This type of geohazard may be indicative of a system in disequilibrium, and the resilience regime for a system producing this class of geohazard may be better understood as one of transformation rather than adaptation, because the equilibrium state is changing

1. Creeping Hazards
Towards a Framework for Transformability and Resilience
Riley Balikian
Prairie Research Institute
Illinois State Geological Survey
University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
Equilibrium
Disturbed
System
(Disequilibrium)
New
Equilibrium
Threshold
Two Resilience Regimes
Adaptability Transformability
Geohazards have generally been understood and defined as acute events that take place on short human
timescales. However, both human- and naturally-induced events can develop and occur over the course of several
years or longer. “Creeping hazards” is a term that was used as early as 1979 and refers to a subset geohazards that
are protracted over a relatively long period of time (Klinteberg, 1979; Jarman and Kousmin, 1994; Grigg, 1996;
Thomalla et al., 2006). This type of geohazard may be indicative of a system in disequilibrium, and the resilience
regime for a system producing this class of geohazard may be better understood as one of transformation rather
than adaptation, because the equilibrium state is changing (Walker et al., 2004).
Overview
Resilience
Resilience is…
“Long persistence in the face of...major changes…without
dramatically altering” (Holling, 1973)
or
“Capacity of a system to continually change and adapt yet
remain within critical thresholds “ (Folke, 2010)
Adaptability
“the capacity to adjust responses
to changing external drivers and
internal processes and thereby
allow for development along the
current trajectory,” (Folke, 2010)
Transformability
“the capacity to create a
fundamentally new system
when ecological, economic,
or social conditions make the
existing system untenable
(Folke; Walker).
Land subsidence
Image Credit: USGS
Desertification
Image Credit: Del Prado Farms
Soil Creep
Image Credit: Illinois DOT
Rising Sea Levels
Image Credit: Riley Balikian
The risk of creeping hazards is not evident
in historical data, and standard risk-
assessment methodologies can miscalculate
the vulnerability of communities facing
such a risk (Eichner et al., 2006). This is
due in part to the statistical methods used to
calculate risk. Recurrence intervals, for
example, can underestimate the probability
of hazards in degrading systems. They also
have difficulty incorporating hazards that
are continuously building (Jarman and
Kouzmin; Rosenthal, 1989; 2001).
Risk Assessment
Bogachev, M.I., Eichner, J.F., Bunde, A., 2008. On the Occurence of Extreme Events in Long-term Correlated and Multifractal Data Sets. Pure and Applied Geophysics 165, 1195–1207. ◆ Bogachev, M.I., Bunde, A., 2011. On the predictability of extreme events in records with linear an
nonlinear long-range memory: Efficiency and noise robustness. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 390, 2240–2250.; Bunde, A., F. Eichner, J., Havlin, S., Kantelhardt, J.W., 2003. The effect of long-term correlations on the return periods of rare events. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Application
RANDOMNESS AND COMPLEXITY: Proceedings of the International Workshop in honor of Shlomo Havlin’s 60th birthday 330, 1–7. ◆ Eichner, J., Kantelhardt, J.W., Bunde, A., Havlin, S., 2006. Extreme value statistics in records with long-term persistence. Physical Review 73.; Gil-Alana, L.A., 2012. U.K. Rainfall Data: A Long
Term Persistence Approach. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 51, 1904–1913. ◆ Grigg, N.S., 1996. Water resources management: principles, regulations, and cases (No. 631.7 G72). New York: McGraw-Hill. ◆ Jarman, A.M.G., Kouzmin, A., 1994. Creeping Crises, environmental agendas, and expert
systems: a research note. International Review of Administrative Sciences 60, 399–422. ◆ Klinteberg, R., 1979. Management of Disaster Victims And Rehabilitation Of Uprooted Communities. Disasters 3, 61–70. ◆ Rosenthal, U., Charles, M.T., Hart, P. (Eds.), 1989. Coping with crises: the management of disasters, riots, a
terrorism. C.C. Thomas, Springfield, Ill., U.S.A. ◆ Rosenthal, U., Boin, A., Comfort, L.K. (Eds.), 2001. Managing crises: threats, dilemmas, opportunities. Charles C Thomas, Springfield, Ill.; Thomalla, F., Downing, T., Spanger-Siegfried, E., Han, G., Rockström, J., 2006. Reducing hazard vulnerability: towards a common
approach between disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation: Reducing Hazard Vulnerability. Disasters 30, 39–48.
Systems exhibiting persistence and those with correlated
extremes require new assessment methods (Bunde et al., 2003;
Eichner et al.; Bogachev et al., 2008; Bogachev & Bunde, 2011;
Gil-Alana, 2012). More work is needed to create frameworks to
incorporate these new methods into hazard management
protocols (Vlek, 2005; Rosenthal, 2001).
Future Work
References