Preliminary research poster on creeping hazards

1. Creeping Hazards
Defining a Framework for Transformability and Resilience
Geohazards have generally been understood and defined as acute events that take place on short human
timescales. However, both human- and naturally-induced events can develop and occur over the course of several
years or longer. “Creeping hazards” is a term that was used as early as 1979 and refers to a subset geohazards that
are protracted over a relatively long period of time (Klinteberg, 1979; Jarman and Kousmin, 1994; Grigg, 1996;
Thomalla et al., 2006). This type of geohazard may be indicative of a system in disequilibrium, and the resilience
regime for a system producing this class of geohazard may be better understood as one of transformation rather
than adaptation, because the equilibrium state is changing (Walker et al., 2004).
Riley Balikian
University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
Prairie Research Institute
Illinois State Geological Survey
Equilibrium
Disturbed
System
(Disequilibrium)
New
Equilibrium
Threshold
The Two Regimes of Resilience
Adaptability & Transformability
Adaptability Transformability
OVERVIEW RESILIENCE
Resilience is…
“Long persistence in the face of...major changes…without
dramatically altering” (Holling, 1973)
or
“Capacity of a system to continually change and adapt yet
remain within critical thresholds “ (Folke, 2010)
Adaptability
“the capacity to adjust responses
to changing external drivers and
internal processes and thereby
allow for development along the
current trajectory,” (Folke, 2010)
Transformability
“the capacity to create a
fundamentally new system
when ecological, economic,
or social conditions make the
existing system untenable
(Folke; Walker).
Land subsidence
Image Credit: USGS
Desertification
Image Credit: Del Prado Farms
Soil Creep
Image Credit: Illinois DOT
Rising Sea Levels
Image Credit: Riley Balikian
The risk of creeping hazards is not evident
in historical data, and standard risk-
assessment methodologies can miscalculate
the vulnerability of communities facing
such a risk (Eichner et al., 2003). This is
due in part to the statistical methods used to
calculate risk. Recurrence intervals, for
example, can underestimate the probability
of hazards in degrading systems. They also
have difficulty incorporating hazards that
are continuously building (Jarman and
Kouzmin; Rosenthal, 1989; 2001).
Risk Assessment
References:
Systems exhibiting persistence and those with correlated
extremes require new assessment methods (Bunde et al., 2003;
Eichner et al.; Bogachev et al., 2008; Bogachev & Bunde, 2011;
Gil-Alana, 2012). More work is needed to create frameworks to
incorporate these new methods into hazard management
protocols (Vlek, 2005; Rosenthal, 2001).
Future Work