Wednesday 22 May, 9.30-10.45am, Resolution Foundation offices, Westminster
Poverty is an age-old problem, and one that we often assume is concentrated amongst the young and old. But the nature and timing of poverty varies much more than we think between generations and over the lifecycle. Understanding these shifts is crucial if we are to make the right interventions to reduce poverty throughout society.
At what stage of one’s life is the risk of poverty greatest, and has this changed for different generations? Are specific groups particularly susceptible to certain drivers of poverty? And what are the most effective interventions to reduce poverty among children, pensioners and all other groups?
In the run-up to the launch of the Intergenerational Centre in mid-June, which is housed within the Resolution Foundation and supported by the Nuffield Foundation, our analysts presented research on poverty rates across different generations, and explored how this has evolved over time. A panel of experts then discussed how we should understand – and reduce – poverty through an intergenerational lens, before taking part in an audience Q&A.
Speakers
John Hills, Professor of Social Policy, LSE
Polly Toynbee, Columnist at The Guardian
Fahmida Rahman, Researcher at the Resolution Foundation
Torsten Bell, Director of the Resolution Foundation
1. May 19@resfoundation 1
New threats to an age-old problem
How poverty varies across our generations and lifecycles
John Hills, Professor of Social Policy, LSE
Polly Toynbee, Columnist at The Guardian
Fahmida Rahman, Researcher at the Resolution Foundation
Chair: Torsten Bell, Director of the Resolution Foundation
#poverty
2. 2
Poverty is typically highest for children and pensioners
Proportion of people in relative poverty (after housing costs), by age: 1961-2017
@resfoundationSource: RF analysis of IFS, Households Below Average Income; DWP, Family Resources Survey
3. 3
Poverty is typically highest for children and pensioners
Proportion of people in relative poverty (after housing costs), by age: 1961-2017
@resfoundationSource: RF analysis of IFS, Households Below Average Income; DWP, Family Resources Survey
Higher income
requirements
Lower incomes
4. 4
The 1980s saw large increases in poverty for all ages
Actual and projected proportion of people in relative poverty (after housing costs), by age-band:
1961-2017
@resfoundationSource: RF analysis of IFS, Households Below Average Income; DWP, Family Resources Survey; RF nowcast and forecast
5. 5
Poverty then fell from the mid-90s onwards, falling
most for pensioners
Actual and projected proportion of people in relative poverty (after housing costs), by age-band:
1961-2017
@resfoundationSource: RF analysis of IFS, Households Below Average Income; DWP, Family Resources Survey; RF nowcast and forecast
6. 6
Child poverty has risen in recent years, with further
increases to come
Actual and projected proportion of people in relative poverty (after housing costs), by age-band:
1961-2017
@resfoundationSource: RF analysis of IFS, Households Below Average Income; DWP, Family Resources Survey; RF nowcast and forecast
7. 7
No generation alive today has experienced the U-shaped
life-course pattern
Proportion of people in relative poverty (after housing costs), by generation: 1961-2017
@resfoundationSource: RF analysis of IFS, Households Below Average Income; DWP, Family Resources Survey
8. 8
No generation alive today has experienced the U-shaped
life-course pattern
Proportion of people in relative poverty (after housing costs), by generation: 1961-2017
@resfoundationSource: RF analysis of IFS, Households Below Average Income; DWP, Family Resources Survey
Shift away from male-
breadwinner households gives
rise to income shocks for new
parents
9. 9
No generation alive today has experienced the U-shaped
life-course pattern
Proportion of people in relative poverty (after housing costs), by generation: 1961-2017
@resfoundationSource: RF analysis of IFS, Households Below Average Income; DWP, Family Resources Survey
Pensioner incomes have grown
relative to working-age incomes
in recent years
Shift away from male-
breadwinner households gives
rise to income shocks for new
parents
10. 10
Higher housing costs for lower-income households are
a big driver of these shifts
Before- and after-housing costs relative poverty rates at selected ages, by generation: 1961-2017
@resfoundationSource: RF analysis of IFS, Households Below Average Income; DWP, Family Resources Survey
11. @resfoundation
• Overall growth in living standards means that absolute poverty
is much lower than it was in the 1960s
• Material deprivation grew post-crisis, but has fallen since 2012
- to below pre-crisis levels for over 40s
• However, young adults in poverty are spending £26 per week
less than they did at the start of this century – and a greater
proportion on essentials
11
Of course, it’s not just about relative poverty…
12. @resfoundation
1. Income Distribution matters
- Relative poverty went up for everyone in the 1980s
2. Economic growth matters
- Absolute poverty falls fastest when growth is strong
- determining how much we need support pensioner incomes to keep up
3. Social trends matter
- Shift away the male-breadwinner model
4. Costs matter
- Housing costs have pushed up poverty rates
5. The state matters
- Social security has always combatted poverty
- And its role need to change when other things change
12
…but a long view of relative poverty is essential to
understanding and tackling it
13. @resfoundation
1. Income Distribution matters
- Relative poverty went up for everyone in the 1980s
2. Economic growth matters
- Absolute poverty falls fastest when growth is strong
- Determining how much we need to support pensioner incomes to keep up
3. Social trends matter
- Shift away the male-breadwinner model
4. Costs matter
- Housing costs have pushed up poverty rates
5. The state matters
- Social security has always combatted poverty
- And its role need to change when other things change
13
…but a long view of relative poverty is essential to
understanding and tackling it
14. @resfoundation
1. Income Distribution matters
- Relative poverty went up for everyone in the 1980s
2. Economic growth matters
- Absolute poverty falls fastest when growth is strong
- Determining how much we need to support pensioner incomes to keep up
3. Social trends matter
- Shift away from the male-breadwinner model gives rise to income shocks for parents
4. Costs matter
- Housing costs have pushed up poverty rates
5. The state matters
- Social security has always combatted poverty
- And its role need to change when other things change
14
…but a long view of relative poverty is essential to
understanding and tackling it
15. @resfoundation
1. Income Distribution matters
- Relative poverty went up for everyone in the 1980s
2. Economic growth matters
- Absolute poverty falls fastest when growth is strong
- Determining how much we need to support pensioner incomes to keep up
3. Social trends matter
- Shift away from the male-breadwinner model gives rise to income shocks for parents
4. Costs matter
- Housing costs have pushed up poverty rates
5. The state matters
- Social security has always combatted poverty
- And its role need to change when other things change
15
…but a long view of relative poverty is essential to
understanding and tackling it
16. @resfoundation
1. Income Distribution matters
- Relative poverty went up for everyone in the 1980s
2. Economic growth matters
- Absolute poverty falls fastest when growth is strong
- Determining how much we need to support pensioner incomes to keep up
3. Social trends matter
- Shift away from the male-breadwinner model gives rise to income shocks for parents
4. Costs matter
- Housing costs have pushed up poverty rates
5. The state matters
- Social security has always combatted poverty
- And its role need to change when other things change
16
…but a long view of relative poverty is essential to
understanding and tackling it
Editor's Notes
Intro – The reports steps back to at changes in poverty rates over the past six decades – We take an in depth look at poverty over the life-course and how shifts in policy and economic circumstances have caused this to change over time for generations
In the main we explore relative poverty, after housing costs – as we feel that this is the suitable measure to use when measuring poverty over the 60 year period.
Of course, there are other measures – such as absolute pov and material deprivation – and we do mention but not in the same depth
Explain chart and read off numbers
Ice breaker
As people have children – their incomes need to stretch further to support more people – pushing up costs
Later life – as people stop working, in retirement, incomes drop – leading to these higher poverty rates
This is a general pattern of poverty over the life course – but as I’m about to show – this doesn’t always stand. Economic and policy shifts play a large part in changing poverty rates
Over the past 60 year we have seem a series of both shared and unique experiences for different age groups
Historically pensioner poverty high
Rising state pension relative to earning in 70s caused falls in pensioner poverty
But in 1980s rising inequality pushed up for everybody – with particularly rapid increases for pensioners
Don’t describe
And in the recent period relatively flat but child pov is expected to rise – close to 35
Big part of driver is welfare-cuts for working age families with children
Just showed the story over 6 decades for age groups as a whole – but what does this mean for generations
Lots familiar with this – but just explain this for now
Big inequality rise happened at different points in everyone's life – affected everybody
Pensioner pov was huge issue for pre-war gens – fell in interim
But rising inequality of the 80s means that Greatest gen in grey have higher rates than their predecessors the forgotten gen in blue
More single parents and dual earning couple households
Move to dual earner households is clearly positive news for living standards as household have higher incomes in general – but the need to reduce working hours when having children has lead to income shocks for new parents, meaning poverty rates go up
And this puts more on pressure social security system to meet costs
More employment income and stronger private pension income
Lower productivity growth driving slower income growth for WA pop – meaning that in contrast social security systems had to do less to help pensioners keep up with rest of population
Lots more things we can talk about but in view of time talk about what's been one of the biggest in recent period
All charts so far have looked at AHC rates – but comparison AHC and BHC poverty rates highlights the role that housing has played in driving up poverty
Explain chart – green BHC/ pink AHC.
In almost all chases AHC pov rates are higher than BHC – HC puts more pressure on those with lowest incomes
For later generations – reflects housing costs rising relative to incomes through 80s and 90s – which affected younger groups who weren't insulated by ownership by that stage
Given current ownership patterns – the risk is that this isn’t just an age effect but also a cohort effect – our expectation is that the gap will open back up in later life (risk – younger gens won’t own in as greater number – gap carries through life with the)
Won’t go into detail now – but interesting new analysis of spending patterns of younger in poverty groups – which finds that young people are now spending less than did nearly two decades ago
On average, 18-29 year olds now spend £26 less per week than they did 15 years ago. (In contrast, those aged 65 and over are spending around £95 more per week)
Between 2001-02 and 2017-18, the share of spending on essentials for 18-29 year olds in poverty grew by 16 per cent, from 45 to 52 per cent, and for 30-49 year olds by 13 per cent from 47 to 53 per cent.
On average, 18-29 year olds now spend £26 less per week than they did 15 years ago. (In contrast, those aged 65 and over are spending around £95 more per week)
Between 2001-02 and 2017-18, the share of spending on essentials for 18-29 year olds in poverty grew by 16 per cent, from 45 to 52 per cent, and for 30-49 year olds by 13 per cent from 47 to 53 per cent.
On average, 18-29 year olds now spend £26 less per week than they did 15 years ago. (In contrast, those aged 65 and over are spending around £95 more per week)
Between 2001-02 and 2017-18, the share of spending on essentials for 18-29 year olds in poverty grew by 16 per cent, from 45 to 52 per cent, and for 30-49 year olds by 13 per cent from 47 to 53 per cent.
On average, 18-29 year olds now spend £26 less per week than they did 15 years ago. (In contrast, those aged 65 and over are spending around £95 more per week)
Between 2001-02 and 2017-18, the share of spending on essentials for 18-29 year olds in poverty grew by 16 per cent, from 45 to 52 per cent, and for 30-49 year olds by 13 per cent from 47 to 53 per cent.
On average, 18-29 year olds now spend £26 less per week than they did 15 years ago. (In contrast, those aged 65 and over are spending around £95 more per week)
Between 2001-02 and 2017-18, the share of spending on essentials for 18-29 year olds in poverty grew by 16 per cent, from 45 to 52 per cent, and for 30-49 year olds by 13 per cent from 47 to 53 per cent.