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  1. 1. Taking Sides Do Falling Birth Rates Pose a Threat to Human Welfare? Kat Davis, Ryan Beattie , Kristen Schwenn
  2. 2. Absolutely! <ul><li>What is human welfare? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Human- consisting of people: the human race. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Welfare- the good fortune, health, happiness, prosperity, etc., of a person, group, or organization; well-being </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Falling population? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Falling birth rates are a result of materialism, human ambition, self-interests, and secular ideologies. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Forecasts by the UN and other organizations show that, even in the absence of major wars or pandemics, the number of human beings on the planet could well start to decline within the lifetime of today's children. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>“ No industrialized nation still produces enough children to sustain its population over time, or to prevent rapid population aging.” Phillip Longman </li></ul></ul>
  3. 3. Cause and Effect <ul><li>Such rapid decline will… </li></ul><ul><ul><li>slow economic growth rate </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Make it difficult to sustain government finances </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Make it difficult to maintain an economic and social system requiring manpower in areas like health care and long term care fields </li></ul></ul><ul><li>It would take 1.3 persons of working age to support one person who is 65 yrs. or older. </li></ul>
  4. 4. Factors of Abnormal Low Fertility Rates. <ul><li>Females literacy and school enrollment have increased and tended to drop birth rates. </li></ul><ul><li>Divorce- before having children or not having more children. </li></ul><ul><li>Abortion and the trend to get married later in life. </li></ul><ul><li>FACTORS IN OTHER COUNTRIES </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Russia: Poor public health care, industrial pollution and alcoholism have all lowered the sperm count of males. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>India: Disease is a factor in India to reproduce, it is now the capitol of global HIV </li></ul></ul>
  5. 5. World Situation <ul><li>Fertility Rates Have Dropped by half since 1972, from six children per woman to 2.9. They are also still falling faster then ever (Easton) </li></ul><ul><li>A society’s woman must each bear 2.1 children to reproduce itself (Mayor) </li></ul><ul><li>Japan has lowered theirs to 1.3 and is expected to shed a 1/4 of its population over the next 40 years. </li></ul><ul><li>China has dropped their average from 5.8 to 1.8 according to the UN since 1970. </li></ul>
  6. 6. World Situation <ul><li>With all these lowered birthrates and many more that lie under the 2.1 needed to reproduce itself, the working population will shrink dramatically. </li></ul><ul><li>Example: Italy </li></ul><ul><li>Demographers predict a 40% decline in the working population over the next four decades. (Mayor) </li></ul><ul><li>China Now has a one- child policy meaning each couple can have one child. -Problem </li></ul>
  7. 7. World Situation? <ul><li>On the other hand some birth rates are way to high. </li></ul><ul><li>-Saudi Arabia- 5.7 </li></ul><ul><li>-Palestinian territory's- 5.9 </li></ul><ul><li>-Yemen- 7.2 </li></ul><ul><li>It is predicted that middle east population will increase from 326 million to 649 million in the next twenty years. </li></ul>
  8. 8. World Population Growth Rosenburg Rosenburg Latest official world population estimate, for mid-year 2007, is estimated at 6,602,224,175 1.6 Bill 1900 5.3 Bill 1990 4.5 Bill 1980 3.7 Bill 1970 3 Bill 1960 2.55 Bill 1950 450 Mill 1500 275 Mill 1000 Population Year 6.5 Bill 2006 7.6 Bill 2020 9.2 Bill 2050 8.8 Bill 2040 8.2 Bill 2030 6.8 Bill 2010 6 Bill 1999 Population Year
  9. 9. World Fertility Graph
  10. 10. Less Developed Countries <ul><li>“ That's a positive for the economy because a larger populace, if sufficiently trained, creates a larger local market and more workers to produce more goods and services.” (&quot;High Birthrates: A Mixed Blessing.&quot;) </li></ul><ul><li>“ As more and more of the world's population moves to urban areas in which children offer little or no economic reward to their parents, and as woman acquire economic opportunities and reproductive control, the social and financial costs of childbearing continue to rise.“- Phillip Longman </li></ul>
  11. 11. Phillip Longman An expert on population at the New America Foundation in Washington. <ul><li>“ There are people who cling to hope that you can have a vibrant economy without a growing population, but mainstream economists are pessimistic.” </li></ul><ul><li>“ Today, most developing countries are growing old before they get rich.“ </li></ul><ul><li>Even though the numbers are different in other countries, if birthrates keep falling their will be a high elderly population and not enough working aged people to support them. </li></ul>
  12. 12. What If Birth Rates Keep Falling? <ul><li>Or even Human EXTICTION!!?!! </li></ul>
  13. 13. Keep Having Children
  14. 14. Works Cited <ul><li>Easton, Thomas A. Taking Sides . New York, NY: McGraw-Hill, 2009. </li></ul><ul><li>“ High Birthrates: A Mixed Blessing.” The McGraw-Hill Companies 3949 (2005). Academic Search Premier . EBSCO. 2 May 2009 <‌ehost/‌detail?vid=4&hid=108&sid=d7c0aab8-57f0-40c3-a5ee-ab5b3c2d934a%40sessionmgr107&bdata=JnNpdGU9ZWhvc3QtbGl2ZQ%3d%3d#db=aph&AN=18051414>. </li></ul><ul><li>“ Human Welfare.” . 2009. 2 May 2009 <>. </li></ul><ul><li>Keidanren, Nippon. An Economy and Society That Responds to the Challenges of a Declining Population . 14 Oct. 2008. 5 May 2009 <‌english/‌policy/‌2008/‌073.html>. </li></ul><ul><li>Mohler, Albert. “The Empty Cradle--Falling Birth Rates and the Human Future.” . 5 May 2009 <‌1264609/>. </li></ul><ul><li>Rosenburg, Matt. “Current World Population.” . 19 June 2008. The New York Times Company. 2 May 2009 <‌od/‌obtainpopulationdata/‌a/‌worldpopulation.htm>. </li></ul>