Examined the Multifaceted risks Brexit produced for Tata Motors, a Jaguar Land Rover company. With many moving parts such as the effects of a hard Brexit vs. soft Brexit, the fluctuation of the GBP & Euro, we make recommendations as to how to turn these risks into opportunities.
The Effects Of Brexit On Tata Motors - Big Risk With Potential Opportunities
1. Through the storm
Transforming Tata Motor to sustain its unique
position and corporate value
Soraya | Colin| Sigga | Grace | Kyle
2. Situation analysis Impact Recommendation I Recommendation II
Situation analysis
2
Brexit - Why does it matter?
Before Brexit
Single Market - Seamless transfer of
goods, services, capital and resources in EU
countries + Norway, Iceland & Lichtenstein
1. No Tariffs
2. No Border Checks
3. Yes Just-In-Time Supply Chain
Competitive Advantage
After Brexit
Hard Borders - No more seamless flow of goods
and services, necessitates new trade deal
The “Backstop” - Stuck in Customs Union
means loss of control
1. Yes Tariffs
2. Yes Border Checks
3. No Just-In-Time Supply Chain
Loss of Competitive Advantage
1. Does JLR keep production in the U.K. or diversify their production base?
2. How else can we mitigate this risk and hedge against impending disaster?
CEO Must Decide
3. Situation analysis Impact Recommendation I Recommendation II
Impact
3
Disruption of the integrated supply chain and rise in tariffs will lead to a decrease in profits
Cross Border R&DSupply ChainCosts and Revenue
Restricted flow of human
capital
JLR’s expat professionals likely to find
that their qualifications for working in
the UK are no longer recognized
Skill shortage
90% of employers struggling to find
the talent they need, and expected to
get worse post-Brexit
Border checks on just-in-time
deliveries
Parts delays would force the
suspension of production at a cost of
£1.25 million per hour at each
production center
No technology solutions
The composition of each truck-
container will differ from day to day
and even hour to hour
High sales in Europe
Europe accounts for more than 25%
of JLR’s sales
Import and Export Tariffs
There will be a import tariff on the
600,000 parts from the EU and a 10%
tariff on all cars exported into the EU
Delays will lead to an extra cost of £60
million pounds a day
The restricted flow of people is expected
to trigger difficulties in R&D at the HQ in
London
Sales in the EU decrease by estimated
10% due to a rise in prices of JLR cars
Loss of £1.2 billion worth of net profit each year
4. Situation analysis Impact Recommendation I Recommendation II
Impact
4
Serious fluctuation on pound in the future creates significant uncertainty for Tata Motors
UK Government Interference Demand of pound in financial market
The Bank of
England has raised
interest rate from
0.5% to 0.75% as of
2 Aug 2018 (2nd time
in a decade)
Central Bank effort stabilizes the investment value of pound
GBP to USD
Demand from stock market can sustain the demand of pound
Major firms’
earnings may get
boosted when
converted back in
GBP, attracting
investors to purchaseLarge % of revenue of FTSE100 firms are from overseas
Uncertainty in the settlement term Unpredictable market reaction and sentiment
Unclear “divorce bill” affects the confidence on UK’s government and pound
A deal on Brexit payment by UK is estimated to
be at 13% of the total EU budget, upwards of
GBP 50 billion
The cost of a hard Brexit, with no transition deal,
may cost Uk as much as GBP 190 billion in
economic fallout by 2030
Occurrence of different events and how market reacts to them are hard to estimate
Pound value
responds actively to
multiple relevant
issues and events,
which are highly
unpredictable
5. Situation analysis Impact Recommendation I Recommendation II
Impact
5
Serious fluctuation on pound in the future creates significant uncertainty for Tata Motor
UK Government Interference Demand of pound in financial market
The Bank of
England has raised
interest rate from
0.5% to 0.75% as at
2 Aug 2018 (2nd time
in a decade)
Central Bank effort stabilizes the investment value of pound
GBP to USD
Demand from stock market can sustain the demand of pound
Major firms’
earnings may get
boosted when
converted back in
GBP, attracting
investors to purchaseLarge % of revenue of FTSE100 firms are from overseas
Uncertainty in the settlement term Unpredictable market reaction and sentiment
Unclear “divorce bill” affects the confidence on UK’s government and pound
A deal on Brexit payment by UK is estimated to
be at 13% of the total EU budget, upwards of
GBP 50 billion
The cost of a hard Brexit, with no transition deal,
may cost Uk as much as GBP 190 billion in
economic fallout by 2030
Occurrence of different events and how market reacts to them are hard to estimate
Pound value
responds actively to
multiple relevant
issues and events,
which are highly
unpredictable
In Long-term, the fluctuation on pound should be limited.
Yet, the short-term impacts are unlikely to be predicted, thus there is necessity to mitigate the uncertainty.
6. Situation analysis Impact Recommendation I Recommendation II
Recommendation II
Tata Motors can reduce its reliance on mature market by diversifying its product portfolio
6
Too high concentration of revenue from UK and EU (around 33% of revenue in FY 2018) magnify the Brexit influence on Tata MotorsCurrent issue
Modifying the regional focus to distributing to emerging markets through leveraging the mature product portfolio of commercial vehiclesSolution
• Offer the right car: Tata Motors can provide commercial
vehicles with outstanding emission control technologies
while maintaining superior performance of the vehicles
• Offer the car right: Tata Motors can offer distinctive terms
of deal for local government in exchange of continuous
partnership for long-term benefits
Tata Motor can gradually shift the business driver to emerging market and lower the reliance of mature markets which suffer from slower growth rate and geopolitical issues
Entry point Government Business
• Simplify the supply chain: Tata Motors can magnify its
scale of distribution channels in these markets to ensure
satisfactory communication and delivery of values
• Leverage on joint-venture: Tata Motors can seek for more
joint-ventures with local players to leverage on their
sensitivity and connection to local consumers
Developing countries with active development plan
(e.g. China – BRI initiative, India – Project Mausam)
Industry with heavy use of commercial vehicles
7. Appendix
Appendix
Navigator
7
Tata Motor
Manufacturing location
Revenue breakdown
Sales Volume
Income statement
Product catalog
Technology
Stock price
Pound value
Other
Trading volume of pound
Risk and Mitigation
Demand of commercial vehicles - China
Demand of commercial vehicles - World
Highlight of FTSE100 index
9. Appendix
Appendix
Tata Motor’s revenue breakdown (by geographic location)
*rupee in Crores
**A crore denotes ten million (10,000,000) in
the Indian numbering system
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10. Appendix
Appendix
Tata Motor’s sales volume breakdown 2017 & 2018
The following table sets forth the Company consolidated total sales of Tata and other brand vehicles:
Back to Navigator
16. Appendix
Appendix
Risk and mitigation
Potential Risks Contingency Plan
Brand Dilution
Reputational loss following the exit
from Britain and loss of brand image
of being a purely British brand
Promotional Efforts
Marketing efforts to emphasize that
the brand is designed in Britain and
has a British heritage
Favorable UK Post-BREXIT
The UK manages to negotiate more
favorable free trade agreements
than the EU had in place
Fail to expand our focus
Failure to penetrate the emerging
markets and gain the support of the
local governments
Backup Strategies
Slow the momentum of
transitioning out of the UK market
Adopt a localization strategy
Adapt our product offerings to the
local market to increase the appeal
to the local consumers
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19. Appendix
Appendix
Trading volume of pound
19
They have shown that based on information
taken from banks in the top trading centers,
the volume of forex trading in Britain has
grown by 23% to a daily average of $2.7
trillion, a record number.
In comparison, the US was up by less than
half, showing an increase of 11 percent to
$994 billion.
This shows that London is still proving to be
worthy investment hub for businesses
globally and will continue to dominate the
forex market.
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