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BEYOND CANDLESTICKS
+ E f , E i [ E A L ,
"Itarning is Like RowingUpstream;Not to Adaanceis to Fall Back"
a a a a a a a o o a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a
BEYOND
CANDLESTICKS
New |apaneseCharting Techniques
Revealed
STEVENISON
IOHN WILEY & SONS, INC.
New York o Toronto o Chichester o Brisbane . Singapore
WILEY FINANCE EDITIONS
The New Technical Trader / Chande and Kroll
Trading on the Edge / Deboeck
ForecastingFinancial and Economic Cycles / Niemira and Klein
TraderVic II / Sperandeo
Genetic Algorithms and Investment Strategies/ Bauer
Understanding Swaps / Marshall
FractalMarket Analysis / Peters
Trading Applications of ]apaneseCandlestickCharting / Wagner and
Matheny
Fixed-IncomeArbitrage / Wong
Trading for a Living / Elder
The Day Trader's Manual / Eng
The Mathematics of Money Management / Vince
Intermarket Technical Analysis / Murphy
The Foreign Exchangeand Money Markets Guide / Walmsley
Chaosand Order in the Financial Markets / Peters
Portfolio Management Formulas / Vince
Financial Statement Analysis / Fridson
Money Management Strategiesfor Futures Traders / Balsara
Dynamic Asset Allocation / Hammer
RelativeDividend Yield / Spare
Inside the Financial Futures Markets, 3rd Edition / Powers and
Castelino
Option Market Making / Baird
Fixed-IncomeSynthetic Assets / Beaumont
Selling Short / Walker
The New Technology of Financial Management / Chorafas
Managed Futures in the Institutional Portfolio / Epstein
Analyzing and ForecastingFutures Prices/ Herbst
ForecastingFinancial Markets / Plummer
A Complete Guide to Convertible SecuritiesWorldwide I ZubLake
Corporate Financial Risk Management / Wunnicke and Wilson
Investing in Intangible Assets / Parr
Treasury Operations and the Foreign ExchangeChallenge / Chorafas
Trading and Investing in Bond Options / Wong
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
a a a o a a a a a a a a a o r a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a o a a a a a a a
= 6 N H T f f . A M H
"You CnnnotClapWith OneHand"
A J"p"r,"se book that I had translated said that: "|apanese charts are
frequently considered secretive. The number of people who know the
essentialsof these charts are few and referencematerial is scarce."l This
paucity of material was particularly true with someof the new techniques
revealedin the secondpart of this book. However, thanks to the help of
someimportant individuals, I was able to uncover many previously hid-
den aspectsof fapanesetechnical analysis.
Without the assistanceof the translating done by Richard Solberg, it
would have been almost impossible to write this book-or my first one!
Not only did Richard ably do the translating, but equally important was
his tenacity in finding and obtaining the japanesebooks I neededfor my
basicresearch.Richard has been one of my most vital resources.
As with my first book, I had the help of knowledgeable fapanese
traders who helped refine my knowledge by sharing valuable insights
obtained from their years of experience.
Mr. Hiroshi Okamoto, Director at Nomura Investment Trust, Mr. Ya-
suhi Hayashi, Senior Trader at Sumitomo Life Insurance, Mr. Nori Ha-
yashi, Investment Manager at BarclaysTrust, and other members from
the Nippon TechnicalAnalysts Association(NTAA) in |apan were all very
gracious. I am sure many of my questions may have seemedvery rudi-
mentary to them, but they were patient and open about sharing their
knowledge. Without their insights, this book would be much less de-
tailed.
Mr. Kiyohiko Yoshizawa, vice president at Paine Webber, provided
vu
vlll Acknniedgments
valuablenew factsand insights about the candlesduring our numerous
meetings.
One of my most important contactswas Mr. Yoji Inata, a correspon-
dent for Reuters. Mr. Inata's assistancewas critical f<lr the new tools
addressedin this book; we spent many hours together.Not only did he
take his valuable time to review some of the new techniques to make
sure I correctlyunderstood the ideas,but he also took the extra step of
conferring with his ]apanesecolleagueson points about which he was
not 100o/o
sure. Mr. Inata said that he enjoyed our studying together. I
think he was being polite. Although I may have contributed to his knowl-
edgein somerespects,for the most part I was the student.I wasfortunate
to have had a gracious,knowledgeable,and friendly teacher.
Thanks again goesto my friend, BruceKamich. A true professional,
he continues to provide me with a streamof insightful and helpful ideas.
The editor of this book, Susan Barry, was also the editor of my first
book. Susan had the foresight to see how brightly the interest in the
candleswould burn. She was a major factor in my choiceof ]ohn Wiley
& Sonsto publish this book. I hope Susandoesnot decideto move to a
publishing firm in the Antarctic. If I ever do a third book, I would have
to follow her.
As an Englishpoet said: "Where ignoranceis bliss,wisdom is folly."
Beforewriting my first book, I was blissfully ignorant of all the time and
effort that goesinto such a project. That book, made me aware of how
difficult the processis. Becauseof this, I had no desireto go through it
all again.However, Dodge Dorland, Chief InvestmentOfficer of Landor
Investment Management (New York, NY), gave me the push to do this
secondbook. Dodge usescandlesto trade stockson an intra-day basis
and hasbeenone of the earliestproponentsof candles.Anyone who has
dealt with Dodge can vouch for his amiability and for his knowledge.
Many of the charts in this book are from the MetaStock software by
EQUIS International (Salt Lake City, UT). Without their assistancein
providing me with the new software to draw the kagi, three-line break,
and renko charts,this book would be much lessdetailed.Their excellent
software, and helpful and knowledgeable staff makes MetaStock a plea-
sure to use. For those interested in finding out more about the MetaStock
software,there is a coupon included at the back of this book. The data
usedfor the Metastockchartswasfrom Dial-Data(Brooklyn,NY). I found
their data accurateand easilyaccessible.
I would like to thank Shahrokh Nikkhah whose early appreciation of
my work and desireto make availablethe many advantagesof candlestick
analysisto his clients brought about my joining his team where we offer
advisory and brokerage servicesat Daiwa SecuritiesAmerica. I would
also thank my colleague,Mark Tunkel for taking the time to help proof-
Acknowledgments
read this book.
In this, asin my first book, you will seemany CQG charts(Glenwood
Springs, CO). They are a real-time graphicscharting service.CQG was
among the first servicesin the West to offer candle charts to their clients.
I have used their servicefor many years.The accuracyof their data and
their support personnel, such as SteveOnstad in New York, make this
a premier real-time charting service.Their excellentworldwide reputation
is well justified.
Reuters Ltd. (New York, London, and Tokyo) have also provided
charts for this project. Their RTA technical analysis real-time charting
product offers someunique capabilities.I have had the pleasureof giving
a seriesof seminarsfor them throughout Europe. The fact that Reuters
hasgone through the time, effort, and expenseto send me to Europefor
theseseminarsshows how committed they arein meeting the educational
needsof their clients.
My first book, lapaneseCandlestick
Charting Techniques,
was written
around the sametime asthe birth of my son,Evan. (At the time of Evan's
bkth, I frightened my wife, Bonnie, when I said I was going to name
him "Candlesticks
Nison.") Evan is now four, and he enjoys "typing"
on my keyboard.I tell you this so that if there are typos, I now have an
excuse.My daughter, Rebecca,
is eight and very bright. I have jokingly
saidthat I wanted this book easyenough for a child to understand, so I
think I'll askher to proofreadthesepages(yet anotherexcuseif you find
any mistakes!).Finally, there is my loving and patient wife, Bonnie,who
understands that it is great to have written, but most difficult to write.
Final thanks go to those who provided another incentive for writing
this book-the creditcardcompaniesand the bank that hasmy mortgage.
Note
loyama, Kenji,p.51.
ix
CONTENTS
PART ONE: CANDLES
Chapter
Chapter
INTRODUCTION
1 ovERvIEw
2 rHE BAsrcs
History of the candlecharts, L3
Evolution of the candlecharts, L6
Constructionof the candleline, L8
Realbody and shadows,20
The realbody,20
Long white real bodies, 20
Long white at a low price level, 2L
Long white candle confirms support, 2L
Long white body breaksresistance,23
Long white real bodies as suPPort,25
Long black real body at high price area,29
Long black confirms resistance,30
Long black breakssupport, 31
Long black asresistance,33
Sizeand frequencyof real bodies, 35
Opening comparedto prior real body, 38
Spinning tops, 40
13
xl
Contents
Accumulation and distribution, 42
Doji,45
Shadows,50
High-wave candles, 52
55
a
Chapter J THE PATTERNS
Single candle lines, 56
The hammer, 56
The hanging man, 59
The shooting star, 64
Dual candle lines, 68
Dark cloud cover, 58
The piercing pattern, 73
The engulfing patterns, 76
Last engulfing patterns, 84
Harami, 86
The window, 93
Three windows, 102
Two black gapping candles, 105
Gapping doji, 106
Three or more candle lines, 109
The evening star, L09
The morning star, LL7
Recordsessions,1,21,
A
Chapter t CANDLES AND THE OVERALL TECHNICAL PICTURE
Stops, 130
Risk/reward, L33
Trend, L37
Becoming a market chameleon, 142
Computers and candles, L44
The importance of where a candle appears,M
The question of determining specificcriteria for the pattern,
145
Placing the trade, 147
When to offset a trade, L48
129
Contents xiii
PART 2: THE DISPARITY INDEX AND NEW
PRICECHARTS
INTRODUCTION 153
Chapter5
Chapter6
HOW THE IAPANESE USE MOVING AVERAGES
The golden and dead cross,L57
The disparity index, 159
Trading with the disparity index, 159
The divergence index, L64
THREE.LINE BREAK CHARTS
Construction of three-line break charts, L68
Trading with three-line break charts, l'74
lAlhite and black lines asbuy & sell signals, 174
Three-line break charts and candle charts, 176
Three-linebreak chartsand trend, 178
Other break charts, 181
Extra confirmation of a trend reversal, l'82
Black shoe, white and black suits, and a neck, 184
Recordsessionsand three-linebreak charts, L86
Western patterns and three-line break charts, L87
PRACTICESESSIONFOR THE THREE-LINEBREAK
CHART
CI
Chapter / RENKO CHARTS
Construction of renko charts, L99
Trading techniques with renko charts, 203
PRACTICE SESSION FOR THE RENKO CHART
ar
Chapter d KAGI CHARTS
Constructionof kagi charts,215
Using percentagekagi charts,2L9
157
167
197
r97
207
2!3
xiv Contents
Trading techniqueswith kagi charts,220
Buy on yang, sell on yin,220
Shouldersand waists, 221
Multi-level br eaks,224
Length of yang and yin, 224
Where corrections stop within the prior kagi line, 226
Double windows, 227
Trendlines,2Sl
Tweezers,232
Three-Buddhaand reversethree-Buddha,233
Recordsessions,235
PR,ACTICESESSIONFOR THE KAGI CHART
CONCLUSION
GLOSSARY
BIBLIOGRAPHY
INDEX
241
247
275
a o o a a a a o a a a a a o a a o a o a o o o o o a a a o o o a o a o a a a o a a a
PART
+ + @
CANDLES
a a a a a a o a a a a o o o a a a a a a o a a a o a a a a a a o o a o a a a o a a a
"Let EaeryBirdSingitsOwnSong"
a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a o a a a a a a o a o a a a a a a a a a a a a t a
INTRODUCTION
1.
2.
3.
A chart is like a map, the more information eachone provides, the better
the chance of reaching your destination safely. Candle charts display a
more detailed and accurate map of the market than do bar charts. A
Japanese
book that I had translatedstated,
"It is not an exaggerationto
say that candlesticks are the best in the world and a very exquisite cre-
ation for charts."l This is because,asdetailedbelow, candlechartsoPen
new avenuesof analysis and offer many advantagesover bar charts:
Candle charts will pictorially display the supply-demand situation by
showing who is winning the battle between the bulls and the bears.
Bar chartsdo not.
Like bar charts, candle charts will show the trend of the market, but
candlecharts add another dimension of analysisby revealing the force
behind the move.
Barchart techniquescan often take weeks to transmit a reversalsignal.
However, candlechartswill often send out cluesof imminent reversals
in one to three sessions.The result is that candle charts often provide
the opportunity for more timely trades.
Thesearejust somereasonswhy the flamesof interest in candlecharts
grow ever brighter. In just a few years, candle charts have joined bar
charts and point and figure charts as a basic charting technique.
Candle charts are drawn using the samedata asbar charts (the open,
high, low, and close),so they send all the samesignalsthat canbe found
ot but charts.Yet, asjust discussed,the candlesoffer many advantages
over bar charts, so using candle charts instead of bar charts is a win-win
situation. When you use bar charts you only get bar chart signals. But,
with candle charts you get all the bar chart signals, plus you gain the
Candles
unique and powerful insights provided by the candles.so, why use a
bar chart?
Becausethe ]apaneseare major players in most of the world's mar-
kets, there is strong interest in how the |apaneseuse their technicalsto
trade. Candlesare the most popular form of technicalanalysisin |apan.
The importance of the candles for the |apanesetrading community is
illustratedin the following quote from the Europeanmagazine,Euroweek.
This articlequotesan English trader who works at a Japanese
bank. He
states:"All the|apanesetradershere-and that's in the foreign exchange,
futures and equities markets-use the candles. It might be difficult to
work out the billions of dollars traded in London on interpretationsof
thesechartseachday, but the number would be significant."2
Think about it: Although billions are traded every day basedon the
candle chart signals, until recently we had no knowledge of how the
]apaneseviewed the market with their technicals.This is hard to believe.
Knowing the candles and their other technical tools discussedin this
book may help answerthe question, "What arethe |apanesegoing to do
next?."
Yearsago,I met with the head of technicalanalysisfor one of fapan's
largest life insurance companies (this fapanesetrader wanted to meet
with me to learn how I used western technicalsto trade). IzVhen
he walked
into my office, he saw I had candle charts on my desk. In a surprised
voice,he asked:"You
know about the candles?."I respondedthat I did.
I then askedif he used them. He told me that his company's top man-
agementwould meeteachMonday to discussthe world markets.At these
meetings,he would bring his candle charts to offer his technicalviews.
Then he pointed to my candle charts and asked: "How many other
Americansknow about this?." I said no one (this was before the publi-
cation of my first book). He looked relieved. I then continued, "But I
will soon have a book out about it." "So, many others will know about
this?," he asked in a disappointed tone. The point of the story is that
the Japanese
trader cameto me to learn about how we, in the West, use
technicals.The fapanesehave learnedfrom us and they know almost all
of our technicalmethods. In most of the candlestickbooks and articlesI
have had translatedfrom Japaneseto English, there was at least some
referenceto westerntechnicaltechniques.A quotefrom one of the books
I had translatedstated, "To understand stocksit is not enough to know
the|apanesechartmethods . . . one must absorbthe bestpartsof western
technicals:and on top of that using the best parts of Japanese
chartsto
make for a progressiveoutlook which is necessaryfor stock analysis."3
We canseefrom this statementhow the fapanesehaveusedour methods
to enhancetheir own. one of the purposesof this book is to do the same
lntroduction
for Western traders-to show how to use the techniquesimplemented
by the Japanese
to enhanceour market knowledge.
An article about my work appeared in the lapan Economic
lournal. Tn
it, the reporter states:
"lapan, which has been in the position to learn
many things from the West in the investments area, may be in the po-
sition to teachsomething."4 We now have access
to a wealth of technical
information refined by generations to use; we afe learning from the Jap-
anese.
Chapter 2 shows how to draw the basiccandleline, and delvesinto
somehistory of the candle charts. Later in that chapter, I show how a
singlecandleline can provide important market insights. Chapter3 dis-
cussesthe basiccandlepatterns. With the detailed descriptionsof these
patterns,thosenew to candlesand candleexpertscandiscovernew mar-
ket perspectives.The last chapter in this section,Chapter 4 focuseson
how the overall technical picture is more important than a single candle
pattern.
Notes
lHoshii, Kazutaka,p. L8.
zEuroweek,
August 30, 199'1.
3Yasui,
Taichi,p. 95.
aThe
lapanEconomic
Joumal,ldy 23, 7991
CHAPTER
1
OVERVIEW
{tJ,tE
)
) ( ffi n d-
"The Buddhais Complete,
But theEyesAre Not in Yet"
(Thelob is Nof YetDone)
THE EXPLOSIVE INTEREST IN THE CANDLES
FF
L here is a Japanese
saying, "A cleverhawk hides its claws." For over
a century, the claws of Japanesetechnical analysis,that is candlestick
charts,were a secrethidden from the western world.
For those new to the excitingfield of candlestickcharts,candlestick
is
the term used for Japan's most popular and oldest form of technical
analysis.They are older than Western point and figure and bar charts.
Amazingly, candlestickcharting techniques,used for generationsin the
Far East, were virtually unknown to the West until I revealedthem in
my first book, lapanese
Candlestick
ChartingTechniques.
I am pleasedand proud that my first book has been credited with
revolutionizing technical analysisby igniting the flames of interest in the
candles.Beforeits publication, few people in the West had ever heard
of a candlechart. Now, candlecharting techniquesare among the most
discussedform of technicalanalysisin the world!
Interest in candle chartshas becomeso intense that the World Bank
in Washington,DC askedme to addressthem on the subject.The world-
wide interest in these previously secrettechniquesare reflectedin the
financialheadlinesbelow:
lnstitutional
lnaestor-"Revealed!
AncientJapanese
TradingSystem"
WallStreet
loumal-"lapan's Candlesticks
Light Traders'Path"
Euroweek-"Candlestick
ChartingComesof Age"
Candles
Equity
lnternational-"Candlestick
Charting-A New Language
for thewest"
Reuters-"Candlesticks
Light New Pathfor WesternChartists,,
For over 70 years,the standardcharting tools in the west have been
bar charts and point and figure charts. Yet, within a short time, candle
chartshave now joined theseas a basiccharting tool. The rapidity with
which this has happened is a direct reflectionof the candle'spopularity
and value.
The groundswell of interest in the candlestickcharting hasbecomea
topic in the media. A TV show, TechTalk,on the businessnews cable
station CNBC is hosted by the famous technician,fohn Murphy. john
told me that a viewer oncecalledand askedhim, "What arethosecharts
that look like hot dogs?" What aninterestingand amusingidea,I thought,
to Americanizethesechartsby referring to them as hot dog charts. But
I guessthe term "candle chart," thankfully, is here to stay.
I have had many wonderful compliments from famous traders and
analysts.However, the most endearingcompliment camefrom a woman
who wrote, "lf
you ever have a down day, just rememberthere's a nice
little grandmother in Missouri who's in awe of your accomplishments."
This letter, besidesbeing so gracious,illustratesthe universal appealof
candles-from traders at the World Bank to a grandmother in Missouri.
The reasonfor the popularity of candlestickanalysisis easy to un-
derstand.They canbe melded with any other form of technicalanalysis,
they are applicableto any of the markets to which technicalanalysisis
applied, and they provide market insights not availableanywhere else.
Why this book?A renowned 16th-centurysamuraiswordsmanstated
that "learning is the gate, not the house. You first have to go through
the gateto get to the house."
My other book, lapaneseCandlestickCharting Techniques,
took you
to the gate.This book takesyou to the house and has many new, excit-
ing, and effective techniques to improve your trading, investing, or
hedging.
Japanese
chartingwas considereda secret.However, I have managed
to pry open the "secretsof the Orient" by exchangingideaswith many
Japanese
traderswho usecandlesand by having many hundreds of pages
translatedfrom ]apaneseinto English. Lin Yutang, a noted Chinesephi-
losopher, sagelynoted that one gets a different flavor from reading the
samebook at different stagesin life. Therefore,he says,all greatbooks
canbe read with profit and pleasurea secondtime; I have found this to
be true.
In the time sincethe publication of my first book, I have rereadmy
original candlestickdocuments and have gleaned new insights. In ad-
dition, I have obtained and translatednew ]apanesematerial, have ex-
Overuiew
panded my dialogue with more fapanesetechniciansand, of course,have
continued to learn from my use of candles.I reveal these new and val-
uable insights in this book.
My first book focused on the futures markets. The candleshave now
becomeso important that their popularity has spilled over from futures
into stock, bond, and foreign exchangemarkets from around the world.
As a result, this book will have many more of the charts than did my
other book.
At times, a singlecandleline can be important. The Japanese
have a
saying,
"With the fall of one leaf we know that autumn has come to the
world." In this sense,a single candleline may be the first sign of a market
turn. In this book, I will show how to useindividual candlelines to obtain
cluesabout the market's health.
It has been very exciting to see the intense interest sparked by the
candles.However, it is often forgotten that the emergenceof a candle
pattern is but one aspectof trading. Other aspects,such asthe risk and
reward ratio of a potential trade and monitoring where the candlepattern
appearsin the overall technicalpicture, must alsobe considered.This is
so important that I have devoted a chapterto theseaspects.
In my continuing studies of ]apanesetrading techniques, I have un-
covered three charting methods that are very PoPular in ]apan, yet are
unknown to the West. These charting techniques are called three-line
break charts,kagi charts, and renko charts. They are revealedin Part 2
of this book.
In the days of fur trading in the United States,there was a comPany
called the Hudson Bay Trading Company. Th"y were known for taking
risks and for careful preparation. Trading journeys were undertaken with
much excitement,but in casethe fur traders forgot anything, they would
camp out the first night just a few miles awayfrom the company's head-
quarters. In other words, careful preparation spared the travelers poten-
tial difficulties.
In Chapters 2 and 3, I too provide careful preparation by providing a
primer on basic candle theory and patterns. For those new to candle
charts, thesechapterswill provide the groundwork for your candle chart
analysis.
Many of you are probably already familiar with the basicsof candle
charts. With this in mind, Chapters 2 and 3 will also offer a deeper
knowledge of the candlesby revealing new candle theories, techniques,
and tools. As a result, even those knowledgeable about candleswill gain
new insights and pelspectives into the power of the candle charts. For
example,when I describethe candle patterns in Chapter 3, I will provide
a unique visual glossary of candle patterns. This method of drawing the
patterns will provide a dimension of candle pattern analysis that was
10 Candles
never before available. After you explore with me the beauty and power
of the candlecharts,you will never be ableto go back to a bar chart.
This book will be a self-containedunit. I will not go over all the candle
patterns; that is done in my first book. However, I will sometimesmake
references
to the moreobscureor rarepatternsdiscussedin my first book.
This is for the benefit of those who are familiar with all the candle pat-
terns. Do not worry if you have not heard of the pattern before; it will
not detractfrom the discussionof the chart.
Numerous charts and exhibits will quickly and clearly make evident
how candlescanenhanceyour trading, timing, and investing. As shown
throughout the book, candles can be merged with any other form of
technicalanalysis.Consequently,I have included chartsthat show how
to fully utilize the candles'power alone,or when joined with other tech-
nical tools.
Just as important as the recognition of candle patterns is an under-
standingof the relationshipof the candlepatternsto the overalltechnical
picture. Chapter 4 focuseson this vital, but often neglected,aspect.In
this chapter,I will addresshow trading with the candlesmust take into
accountthe risk and reward of a potential trade, the stop-out level, and
the overall trend. I will also addressthe value of adapting to changing
market conditions.
BeforeI discusstrading with candles,I want to clarify a few points.
In the futures market, selling short is ascommon asbuying long. This is
not true in the stock markeU most equity traders look to buy. Conse-
quently, throughout this book when I use the term "bearish"
or "sell-
ing" when discussinga stock,you should not think of necessarilygoing
short. Instead,view it asan areato protect existinglongsby suchmeans
as selling covered calls, moving up protective stops, or offsetting all or
somelongs.
But this book is about more than candles.In Part II I reveal the dis-
parity index, the three-line break, renko charts, and kagi. These tech-
niques,popular in Japan,arevirtually unknown in the west and, unlike
candle charting, little has been written about these techniques, even in
Japan.
The disparity index comparesthe closeto a moving average.It is used
in the samemanner as dual moving averages,but it has an interesting
wrinkle to it. The three-line break, kagi charts, and renko charts are
popular among Japanesetraders. They are excellenttechnicaltools for
determining the trend of the market.
Whether you use the techniquesdiscussedin this book individually
or in combinationwith one another, you will discoverthat they provide
dynamicadvantagesfor thosewho make useof their tremendouJpoten-
tial.
11
Note to Reader: Many charts in this book, especiallyin Part II, were
drawn using technicalanalysissoftware from Metastockby EQUIS In-
ternational (Salt Lake City, UT). A coupon for Metastock Software is
included at the end of the book.
CHAPTER
2
THE BASICS
d  s d t .
"lnattentionis Fatal"
HISTORY OF THE CANDLE CHARTS
rF
I Hg fapanesewere the first to usetechnicalanalysisto trade one of the
world's first futures markets-rice futures. The Japanese
startedtrading
in this market in the 1600s.Interestingly, the birth of the Japanese
rice
futures market was a consequence
of the country's military history.
After a century of internal warfare among the daimyo (Japanesefeu-
dal lords), GeneralTokugawa Ieyasu, who ruled from Edo (the ancient
name of Tokyo), won the famous battle at Sekigaharain 1600.This was
the battle that helped unify fapan. TokugawathereafterbecameShogun
of all ]apan. After his victory over the daimyo, General Tokugawa clev-
erly required that all the feudal lords live in Edo with their families. When
the lords returned to their respective provinces, the entire family stayed
at Edo ashostage.The feudal lord's main sourceof incomewas rice that
was collectedastax from the peasantswho worked their land. Sincethis
rice could not be transported from the daimyo's provinces all the way to
Edo, they setup warehousesin the port city of Osakato storetheir rice.
Because
all thesepowerful daimyo lived socloseto eachother in Edo,
they attemptedto outdo one anotherin lavish dress,mansions,and other
luxuries.This was reflectedby a popular sayingat the time, "The Edoite
will not keep his earningsovernight." This showed that the daimyo in
Edo were seenas spendthrifts with an expensivelifestyle. To maintain
this lifestyle, the daimyo sold rice from their warehouse in Osaka; some-
times thev even sold rice from future harvests.The warehousewould
13
t4 Candles
issuereceiptsfor this future rice. Thesewere calledempty rice contracts
("empty tice" since the rice was not in anyone's physical possession)
and they were sold in the secondarymarket. This was the beginning of
one of the world's first futures market.
Trading in ricefutures engenderedmuch speculation,and it wasfrom
this speculationthat Japanese
technicalanalysiswas born. The most fa-
mous trader in the rice futures market was Homma. Homma traded in
the rice futures marketsin the 1700s.He discoveredthat although there
was a link between the supply and demand of rice, the markets were
alsostrongly influencedby the emotions of the traders. Because
of this,
there were times when the market perceiveda harvestas different from
the actual.He reasonedthat studying the emotionsof the market could
help in predicting prices. In other words, he understood that there was
a differencebetween the value and the price of rice. This differencebe-
tween price and value is as valid today with stocks,bonds, and curren-
cies,as it was with rice centuriesago.
In the materialI had translated,candlechartsare often calledSakata
chartsin referenceto the port city of Sakata,where Homma lived. How-
ever,basedon my research,it is unlikely that Homma usedcandlecharts.
As will be seenlater, when I discussthe evolution of the candlecharts,
it was more likely that candlechartswere developedin the early part of
the Meiji period in japan (in the late 1800s).
whether or not Homma invented charting is open to question. But
determining whether one person, in this caseHomma, createdchartsor
used them to trade is not too important. Thereis a tendencyin the West
to be preoccupiedwith imposing authorship to one person. It is more
likely that the candle charts we know today and all the techniquesas-
sociatedwith them tended to be a processof cumulative authorship by
severalpeople over many generations.Even if he did not invent candle
charts, Homma understood that the psychologicalaspectof the market
was criticalto his trading success.
And it appearsthat the earliestforms
of technical analysis in Japan dealt more with the psychology of the
market rather than charts.
In the book, TheFountainof GoId-The ThreeMonkeyRecordof Money,
purportedly written by Homma, the author states: " After 60 years of
working day and night I have gradually acquireda deep understanding
of the movements of the rice market." The book then goes on to say:
"when all are bearish, there is causefor prices to rise. when everyone
is bullish there is causefor the price to fall." This phraseechoswhat is
now calledcontrarianopinion, a tool important to so many traders.yet,
TheFountainof Gold-The ThreeMonkeyRecordof Money, was written in
1755.It is amazingthat beforeAmerica was a nation, the Japanese
were
trading with contrarian opinion! The title had me perplexed for some
The Basics
time. I did not understand the referenceto the "three monkeys" in the
title. Then in some of my translated material, it said something about
comparing successfultrading to being like the three monkeys we all knew
as children-see, hear, and speak no evil. Then it dawned on me; the
title of the book, TheFountainof Gold-The ThreeMonkeyRecord
ofMoney,
meansthat for traders to get to their
"fountains of gold," they should
have the characteristicsof these three monkeys. Specifically:
L. "See no evil"-when yolJ seea bullish (bearish)trend, do not get
caught up in iU consider it an opportunity to sell (buy).
In the Fountainof Gold, it states that there is always a rotation of Yang
(bullishness) and Yin (bearishness).This means that within each bull
market, there is a bear market, and within a bear market, there is a bull
market. This view may explain why fapanesecandlesticktechniquesplace
so much emphasis on reversal, rather than continuation, patterns.
2. "Hear no evil"-when vou hearbullish or bearishnews, don't trade
on it.
It may be safer to take a position after you determine how the market
reacts to a news item rather than initiating a trade when the news is
released.Bernard Baruch, the millionaire stock speculatorand presiden-
tial advisor, statedthat what is important in market fluctuations
"are not
the eventsthemselves,but the human reactionsto theseevents." Exhibit
2.L showsthat how the market reactsto the news may be just asimpor-
tant as the news itself.
The Iraqi War started in the first few days of August 1990.Yet, Exhibit
2.Lshowsthat gold stalled at$425.This $425levelwas gold's high earlier
in 1990.This failure to take out the prior high was in spite of the fact
that there was a Mideast War. Gold's failure to rally on suPPosedly
bullish news sent out volumes of information about the stateof the mar-
ket. To wit, be careful of a market that fails to rally on bullish news. Note
that after this failure at$425,gold lost its luster asprices returned to their
pre-Mideast crisis price near $360within two months.
Also be aware of what the Japanese
refer to as "whispering tactics."
This is what they call the spreading of false news to trick others in the
market. Try to keep out of rumor buffeted markets. IsaacNewton once
said,
"I can calculatethe motion of heavenly bodies but not the madness
of people." Why get involved with the madnessof people?
3. "Speak no evil"-don't speak
to others about what you are going to
do in the market.
15
16 Candles
EXHIBIT 2.1. Observingthe Market's Reactionto FundamentalNews, Gold-
December1990,Daily
Has the following happenedto you? Basedon your analysis,you decide
to buy into a market. You tell someoneelseof this decision, but they say
somethingnegativeabout that market. Because
there is always a degree
of uncertainty, you get nervous and decidenot to buy. Then, of course,
the market rallies.
If you have carefully studied the market, it is safer not to speak to
anyoneaboutwhat you plan on doing unlessyou believethey havebetter
insight than you. Look only to the market to give you direction. In one
of my favorite passagesinThe Fountainof Gold,it saysthat ". . . to learn
about the market ask the market-only then canyou becomea di:testable
market demon." Isn't that a wonderful phrase?Wouldn't you love to
becomea detestable
marketdemon?
The colorful languageused by the Jap-
aneseis just one reasontheir technicaltechniquesare so exciting.
Let us turn our attention to Exhibit 2.2, which illustrates the path that
ultimately led to the candlecharts.
Evolution of the Candle Charts
A. Stopping chart-Also referredto asa point, line, or starchart. This
was the earliesttype of chart and was drawn by joining only closing
(A)
Stopping
Charts(close)
,4. .f+
/ v J t
(B)
PoleCharts
(High-Low)
(D)
AnchorChart(High-Low-Close-Open)
prices. Th"y were named stopping charts becausethat was where the
prices stopped by the end of the session.Stopping charts were drawn
with either diagonallines or horizontal lines connectingthe closes.
B. Polechart-Its nameis derivedfrom the factthat the linesresemble
poles. This chart added the extra information imparted by showing the
rangebetweenthe high and the low of the session.Theselines show not
only the direction of the move, but the extent of the move for each
session.
C. Bar chart-This is a combination of the stopping and pole charts.
D. Anchor chart-Named as such becauseit looks like an anchor.
Basedon legend, these charts originated in the Kyoho Era (from 1716)
from the fact that the usual meetingplacefor rice traderswas port cities.
The anchor chart was an important event in the evolution of charting.
With this chart, the opening price was now added and createda chart
with an open, high, low, and close.Just as important, and something
unique to fapanesecharts, was that the relationship between the open
and closewas pictorially displayed. The top and bottom of the anchor's
verticalline are the high and low of that session.The horizontal line of
the anchorline is the open. The arrow of the anchorline is the close.If
the closeis higher than the open, the arrow points up; if the closeis
lower, the arrow points down.
(c)
Bar Chart(High-Low-Close)
(E)
Candle
Chart(High-Low-Close-Open)
TheBasics 17
EXHIBIT 2.2. The Evolutionary
Path to the Candlestick Charts
,f
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18 C-andles
E. Candle chart-The next improvement from the anchor charts was
the candle chart. Although they are shrouded in mystery, the candles
probably startedin the early part of the Meiji period (from 1868).As can
be seen in Exhibit 2.28, candle lines were a refinement of the anchor
chart. The use of black and white real bodies made analyzing the un-
derlying supply and demand situation visually easierto determine than
with the anchor charts.
With the arrival of the candle charts, Japanesetechnical analysisflow-
ered aspeople started thinking in terms of signalsand trading strategies.
Patternswere developed and market prediction becamemore important.
Trying to forecastthe market took on extra importance in the L870swhen
the fapanesestock market opened.
As canbe seenfrom Exhibit 2.2, bar chartswere one of the ancestors
of the more evolved and productive candle charts. In essence,this means
that since most of the West is still using bar charts, it is also using a less
evolved form of charting than the Japaneseare with candle charts.
CONSTRUCTION OF THE CANDLE LINE
The first step in using the power of candlesis learning how to construct
the basic candle line. Exhibits 2.3. and 2.4 show that the candle line
consistsof a rectangular section and two thin lines above or below this
section. We seewhy these are named candlestick charts; the individual
lines often look like candleswith their wicks. The rectangular part of the
candlestick line is called the real body.lt represents the range between
the session'sopen and close.When the realbody is black(e.g., filled in),
it showsthat the closeof the sessionwas lower than the open. If the real
body is white (that is, empty), it means the close was higher than the
oPen.
White Real Body
EXHIBIT 2.3. White RealBodv
I
Black Real Body
EXHIBIT 2.4. BlackRealBody
F.-==*
TheBasics
The thin lines above and below the real body are the shadows.
The
shadowsrepresentthe session'sprice eXtremes.The shadow abovethe
real body is referred to as the upper shadow and the shadow under the
realbody is the lower shadow.Accordingly,the peakof theupper shadow
is the high of the sessionand the bottom of the lower shadow is the low
of the session.
Candle charts can be used throughout the trading spectrum, from
daily, to weekly, and intra-day charting. For a daily chart, one would use
the open, high, low, and closeof the session.For a weekly chart, the
candlewould be composedof Monday's open, then the high and low of
the week, and Friday's close.On an intra-daybasis,it would be the open,
high, low, and closefor the chosentime period (i.e., hourly).
Exhibit 2.3 shows a strong sessionin which the market opened near
the low and closednear its high. We know that the closeis higher than
the open becauseof the white real body. Exhibit 2.4 illustrates a long
black candlestick.This is a bearish sessionin which the market opened
near its high and closednear its low.
The |apanesefocus on the relationship between the open and close.
This makessense;probably the two most important pricesof the day are
the open and close.It is thereforesurprising that American newspapers
have openings for futures prices, but not for stocks.A member of the
Nippon TechnicalAnalysts Associationtold me that he found it unusual
that U.S. newspapersdo not have opening stock prices; the Japanese
have the openings in their papers. He said that he did not know why
the Americansdisregardthe openings.
I would expectthat just asalmost all technicalsoftwarevendors now
carry candle charts, so it may be that as candlesbecomemore popular
in the equity market, newspapersmay, by popular request, carry stock
openings. Until then, in order to obtain the data needed to draw the
candles(the open, high, low, and close)you need to use a data vendor
service.Theseservicesfurnish priceson disks or through modems. The
data supplied from a data vendor are then transferredinto a technical
analysis software package that will draw the candles based on these
data.
A noteof caution:Some data vendors who do not have the actual
opening price of a stock default to the prior session'scloseas today's
open. This, in my opinion, is not valid. You must have the true open to
draw an accuratecandleline. Although an open on a stockwill usually
not be much different from the prior close,there aresomecandlepatterns
in which a higher or lower opening (comparedto the prior close)gives
valuableinformation. A datavendor that includesactualopenson stocks
is Dial Data (Brooklyn, NY).
t9
20
REAL BODY AND SHADOWS
While an individual candle usually should not be used alone to placea
trade, the size and color of its real body and the length of its shadows
can provide a wealth of information. Specifically,looking at a line's real
body and shadows gives a senseof the supply and demand situation.
This section will discuss this basic idea, and explain how to use real
bodiesand shadowsto get cluesabout the market's underlying strength
or weakness.By using the candlelines discussedbelow, you may be able
to get an early and tentative indication of market direction.
THE REAL BODY
In ]apanesecharts, even an individual candle line has meaning, and one
of the first clues about the vitality of the market is to look at the size and
color of the real body. To the |apanese,the real body is the essenceof
the price movement. This is a critical and powerful aspectof candlecharts;
through the height and color of the real body, candle charts clearly and
quickly display the relative posture of the bulls and the bears.
This sectionwill be segmentedaccordingto the decreasingsizeof the
real bodies. The first part of this section will consequently focus on long
white and then long black real bodies. After these, attention is turned to
candles with small real bodies called spinning tops. These diminutive
real bodies display a market where the bulls and bears are in a tug of
war.
This sectionwill concludewith candlesthat have no realbodies. These
candles have the same (or nearly the same) opening and closing. Such
candles, called doji (pronounced d6-gee), reflect a market in a state of
transition. Doji, asyou will seelater, can be an important market signal.
Long White Real Bodies
A long white real body is defined as a sessionthat opens at or near the
low of session,and then closesat or near the session'shigh. The close
should be much higher than the open. For example, if a stock opens at
$40 and closes at $4ff/v it would not be a long white candle since the
opening and closing range were relatively close.For a long white candle
to have meaning, someJapanesecandlestick traders believe that the real
body should be at least three times as long as the previous day's real
body.
The Basics 21
I
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EXHIBIT 2.5. Long White at a Low PriceLevel
Long White at a Low Price Level
A single candleby itself is rarely sufficient reasonto forecastan imme-
diate reversal.It could, however, be one clue that the prior trend may
be changing. For instance, as shown in Exhibit 2.5, a long white real
body at a low price range may be the first sign of a market bottom. A
long white candle shows that the ability to rise is virtually unimpeded
by the bears.The closerthe closeis to the high of the session,and the
longer the white real body, the more important the candleline.
Exhibit 2.6 shows that in late 991.,this stock was stabilizing near $5.
The first sign that the bulls were attempting to take control was the
unusually long white real body at 1. Note how this real body was ex-
tended compared to the prior real bodies. However, an almost equally
long, but black real body (for information on black real bodies, seepage
29), on the week after candle L showed that the bears still had enough
force to offset the bulls' advance. In early 992, another unusually long
white candle,shown at2, appeared.This white candleopenedon its low
(sinceit does not have a lower shadow) and closedon its high (sinceit
doesnot have an upper shadow). Such a candleis exceptionallystrong,
notably when it is so elongatedas in candle 2. Candle 3 was another
strongwhite candlethat propelled pricesto new multi-month highs. With
the tall white candles L and 2 both appearing near $5, we can seethe
significance
of that $5support area.Consequently,when pricescorrected
back to this level in fuly and August 1992,it is not surprising that the
selloffstopped near $5.
Long White Candle Confirms Support
As shown in Exhibit 2.7, the tall white candlethat rebounds from support
underscoresthe aggressiveness
of the bulls. A long white candle that
bouncesoff a support area such as a trendline, a moving average,or a.
retracementlevel gives extra confirmation of that support.
22 Candles
AURORA
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EXHIBIT 2.6. Long white Candle at Low price, Aurora Electric-weekly
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DGIIBIT 2.7. Long White Candle Confirms Support
"'I
Movingaverage
TheBasics 23
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EXHIBIT 2.8. Long White Candle Confirms Support, General Re-Daily
In Exhibit 2.8, we seehow drawing a support line with a candlechart
is done the sameway aswith a bar chart. In this case,we arelooking at
a support line that is obtainedby connectingthe lows of the session(that
is, by connectingthe bottom of the lower shadows).This upward sloping
trendline was testednumerous times. In lateJanuary,a bouncefrom this
support via a long white real body showed the eagerness
of the bulls to
buy near that support.
Long White Body BreaksResistance
Exhibit 2.9 displays how the market can prove its mettle by piercing a
resistanceareawith a tall white real body. As shown in Exhibit 2.10,the
highs at areasA and B discloseda resistanceareanear $44and $45.In
lateNovember,an extendedwhite realbody gappedhigher on the oPen-
24 Candles
EXHIBIT 2.9. Long White CandleBreaksResistance
ing and closedat the session'shigh. This tall white candleconfirmed an
important breakoutfrom the aforementionedresistanceband. Note how
in early 1993the gap before this white candlebecamea support area.we
will look at the importance of gaps as support when windows are dis-
cussedin the next chapter.
BANKAMERICA- DAILY
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The Basics
Long White Real Bodies as Support
Exhibit 2.11brings out one of the more excitingusesof long white can-
dles, specifically, that long white candles can become support areas. I
have found this to be an excellent tool since it servesto alert traders to
support zones that are not available with bar charts. The depth of the
reaction should find support at either the middle of the long white real
body or the bottom of the entire white candle, including the lower
shadow. The Japaneseliterature saysthat a long white real body should
be support in a rising market. However, basedon my experience,it can
alsobe used as support in a falling market. The reasonthe market may
fall back after an exceptionally tall white real body is that prices may
becomeshort-term overbought (that is, they rallied too far too fast). In
this scenario, the market may have to retrace some of the prior rally to
relieve this overbought condition.
In Exhibit 2.12, the huge white candle in early 1992propelled prices
from $1012
to about $15. Almost a 50o/o
rise in one week! After such a
move, it was not surprising that the market had to consolidateits gains.
Basedon the preceptthat a long white candleis support, the middle of
the white real body (at the arrow), near $121/2,
should then be monitored
as support. The power of the market is well reflectedby the fact that for
the rest of 1992,the market held above this support area.
25
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1,1
(1)50o/"
within
long white
real body Support
l 1 l
(2) Bottomof long
whitecandle's
lower shadow
EXHIBIT 2.11. Long White RealBodiesas
Support
Support
26 Candles
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EXHIBIT 2.12. The Middle of a Long l4lhite Candle as support, Citicorp-weekly
Exhibit 2.13 illustrates how the lower end of tall white bodies L-4
becamesupport on corrections.Of interest is that the support line ob-
tained by extending the low of candle 3 was broken in September 1992.
Observe, however, that the sell-off stopped near the support area from
the low of candle2. This chartalsoillustratesan important point. Candle-
stick traders should wait, if possible, for the market to closeunder sup-
port to confirm a break. In this example, we see in mid-1992 that the
support level from the bottom of candle 3 was broken intra-weekly (see
X on the chart), as was the support by the bottom of candle 4 (seeY).
Because
the weekll (i.e., the Friday)closeheld abovethesesupport areas,
the support line was still in force.
Noticein Exhibit 2.14how the low of the long white realbody in early
April (at the arrow) was 109-22.This means that area should provide a
base on sell-offs. In this exhibit we seethe importilrce of waiting for a
closeunder a support areato confirm the breaking of support.
TheBasics
EXHIBIT 2.L3. Bottom of Tall White as Support, Dow fones-Weekly
EXHIBIT 2.14. Bottom of Tall White Candle as Support with Bond Futures-D6ily
28 Candles
A method you could use with this concept of tall white candlesas
support is to buy on a correctionnear the midpoint of the white candle.
Fromthat leveldown to the bottom of the long white candle(this includes
the bottom of the lower shadow) should be support. If the bottom end
of the support zone (that is, the lows of the tallwhite candle)is pene-
trated on a close, then you should reconsider your long position. et
times, these support areasare broken on an intra-sessionbasis,but as
long as the support holds on the close,I still view it asvalid support.
one of our institutional clients told me he found that, at times, after
a tall white candle,the market corrects.I advisedhim that suchactionis
not surprising since after such a candle, the market may be overbought
and hence vulnerable to a setback.I then suggestedthe use of a long
while candle as a support area in which he courd buy on a correction.
Coincidentally, on November 23,at the time the trader and I were talking
about this, the bond's first hour of trading had just ended. This first
hour, as shown in area2 in Exhibit 2.1s, completeda tall white candle.
since he tradedbonds, I informed the client that support should be from
the halfway point of this white candle down to the bottom of the candle,
including the lower shadow. I then pointed out that there was another
long while candle from the preceding day's first hour of trading (see
using the support Zone in a Tall white Candle December1993Bond
TheBasics 29
candle 1). The bottom of that tall white candle (including the shadow)
was successfullydefended as suPport with candle 2. Thus, there were
two white candles (at L and 2) that reinforced the support near 14-16.
Note how, after white real body 2, the market retraced about halfway
into it before rallying.
Long Black Real Body at High Price Area
just as a long white candle could be an early signal that the market may
be trying to build a bottom, so it is that a distinctively long black real
body at a high price may be a tentative warning of a top. The long black
real body should be significantly longer than the candlespreceding it.
This is illustrated in Exhibit 2.16. Such a long black real body displays
that the bears had grabbed control of the market. The longer the rally
continued and the more overbought the market, the more reliable the
cautionarysignal of this long black real body becomes.
The long white candle (1) in Exhibit 2.17 echoesa vibrant market.
However, therewere a few warnings that Home Depot was overheating.
The first was that the relative strength index (RSI)was above70o/o.
Such
a high RSI figure is a clue that the market is overbought. Another sign
that the bulls were losing their upside push was the seriesof small real
bodiesfollowing the tall white candleat 1.Thesesmallrealbodiesshowed
that the supply-demand situation was more in balance as comPared to
tall white candle 1 (candle L showed that demand was overwhelming
supply). Smallreal bodiesare discussedin more detail later in this chap-
ter.
Fallingblackrealbody at 2 showedthat the bearshad wrestedcontrol
of this stock.Note how blackrealbody 2 was the longestblackrealbody
since at least November 1992.This shouts out a warning that there is
now something very different about the market, and that appropriate
defensiveaction-such assellingcoveredcalls,or offsettingsomelongs-
should be undertaken. For those who are familiar with all the candle
patterns, note how the tall white candle at 1 and the black real body at
rl'',,
r ' l
EXHIBIT 2.16. Long BlackRealBody at High PriceArea
./
30 Candles
HOME
DEPOT
& 14 PERIOD
RSI
75
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50
19
18
17
16
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11
13
12
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51
50
19
18
17
16
15
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13
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'3223 0 07 r1 2128,$ ir l8 t5
EXHIBIT 2.17. LargeBlackCandleat High Priceand the RelativeStrengthIndex,
Home Depot-Daily
EXHIBIT 2.18. Long
BlackCandleConfirms
Resistance
2 formed a bearishtower top, so namedbecausethe two long candlesat
1 and 2look like towers.
Long Black Confirms Resistance
If, asshown in Exhibit 2.j.8,the market backsoff sharply from resistance
through a long black candle, it is extra confirmation of the resistance
area. This is becausesuch a candle means that either the bulls have
Priorhighsas
resistance
TheBasics 31
EXHIBIT 2.L9. Long BlackCandleat Resistance,
CashYen-Weekly
retreatedor that the bearshavebecomeaggressive
enoughto overwhelm
the bulls. Either of thesescenariosis potentially bearish.In Exhibit 2.19,
there is an evident resistancearea near 135yen. This is shown by the
horizontal trendline. The first long black candle at the arrow stalled at
this resistance.With the retreat from this resistancethrough this un-
usually long black real body, there was a causefor caution. Two weeks
later, the second,even longer black real body signified the capacityof
the bearsto drag priceslower.
Long Black Breaks Support
As shown in Exhibit 2.20,the way the marketbreaksa support areamay
indicatethe seriousness
of the break. For instance,a move under a suP-
port areaby way of a long blackcandleshould be viewed asa potentially
morebearishscenariothan if the market closesunder a support areawith
a short black candleor a white candle.
A popular longer term moving averagemonitored by both Japanese
and American stockmarket participantsis the 200day moving average.
Exhibit 2.21-shows how this moving averagewas support throughout
32 Candles
l l r
l , ' , t l ' ,
EXHIBIT 2.20. Long BlackCandleBreaksSupport
late 1992into January 1993.However, the first sign of a break of this
support cameby way of long blackrealbody 1. Although this only broke
the 200 day moving average line by a few cents, it was an early, but
provisional, sign of trouble. Final proof of a decisivebreak of the support
areacamewith long black candlestick2.
AMGEN
- DAILY
75
,,**uiln'n'rPt'Tto*'nrf
*l'n*cn-
200Day (2)
Moving
Average
nln'r*or,l+
75
70
55
50
55
50
45
40
35
7E
55
60
55
50
15
40
35
'gz NOU 0Ec '93 FEB IlAR
EXHIBIT 2.21. Long BlackRealBody BreaksMoving Averagesupport, Amgen-
Daily
TheBasics 33
f ;";
EXHIBIT 2.22. Long Black Candle as Resistance
Long Black as Resistance
As a long white real body acts as a support area, so a long black real
body should actasresistance(seeExhiblt2.22).In Exhibit 2.23,longblack
real body L penetratedan uptrending support line. With the long black
candle at 1 and the long black real body six weeks earlier (at X), there
UPJOHN
-WEEKLY
49
48
17
16
45
44
43
12
1L
40
5E'
37
36
35
34
3Z
5 t
19
4B
17
16
45
11
.13
42
41
40
39
3S
v
%
35
34
33
{ t l
n
31
30
,91 JUNJUL AUG SEPOCTNOU OEC,92 FEB IIARAPRNAY JIJNJI.[. AIJ6SEPOET
fiuNl
(x)
(1)
fiil
r+l
l 1
,-d'*'f
EXHIBIT 2.23. Long BlackCandleasResistance,
Upjohn-Weekly
34 Candles
was now a resistance
zone that could be used to exit longs or to go short,
on a bounceto that resistance.
Exhibit 2.24 displaysa price explosionvia a long white candlein late
1991'.
Using the theory of long candles,let us seehow one could have
traded this market. A long white candle gives us a support area at 50o/o
within its real body. Consequently,a pullback to near the 50o/o
retrace-
ment of the long white could be used asan earlybuying zone. This could
have been at areas1 through 4. Now, we turn our attention to a price
target. Notice the exceptionallybearish long black real body from
-sup-
tember 1991,
(at the arrow). As discussedabove,we would expecta raliy
to stall as it approachesthe top of this black candle.Although the bulls
were finally able to gather enough force to breach this resistanceof the
long black candle, it took them over a year to accomplishthis. Thus,
buying on a pullback into the long white with a minimum target to
september's long black real body could have been an effectivetrading
strategy.
AMEX_ WEEKLY
30.0
29.5
29.o
28.5
28.0
27.5
27.O
26.5
26.0
25.5
25.0
24.5
24.0
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2?.5
22.O
21.
5
21.0
zu.a
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tfl+t1tfl-
30.0
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29.0
28.5
28.0
27.8
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26.3
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25.5
% . 0
24.5
24.O
23.5
23.CI
22.5
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21.5
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t 5 . 5
ls.0
18.5
18.0
zu,5
20.o
19.5
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EXHIBIT 2.24. Long Black Candle as Resistance, Amex-Weekly J
BRISTOLMYERS- DAILY
72
a l
. L
70
59
bu
67
bb
65
61
63
62
6L
50
5S
5U
57
56
55
54
53
72
7L
7E
53
68
67
66
65
61
63
62
bt-
60
53
58
57
56
55
54
53
,92 NOU OEE ,93 FEB IlAR APR
The Basics
Size, Frequency, and Color of Real Bodies
The tone of the market can be gauged by comparing the relative height,
frequency, and color of a group of candle lines. The first sign of trouble
in Exhibit 2.25camewith the long black candle at L. Note how this is the
longest black candle in some time. Then, an aPPearance
of an elongated
black candle at 2 was an evident warning sign of trouble. The price de-
scent continued until February's tall white candle at 3 arose. This was
the loftiest white real body in many months, and relayed that the bulls
had enteredthe market in force. Observehow the midpoint of February's
white real body becamea basefor a minor rally.
In the boxed section in Exhibit 2.26, we see a period in which the
market was trading laterally. With a bar chart, it would be difficult to
glean information about the relative strength of the bulls or the bears in
suchan environment. With the candles,however, we cando this. In this
trading range environment, we can seethat there were eight black real
MetaStockbYEQUIS Int'l
EXHIBIT 2.25. Slzeand Color of RealBodies,BristolMyers-Daily
35
)
36 Candles
EXHIBIT 2.26. Relativesize, Frequency,and Color of RealBodies,August 1993
Crude Oil
bodiesand only four white candles.Also, the blackrealbodieswere taller
than the white ones. With more and larger black real bodies than white
realbodies,the candlestell us that the bearswere taking a more aggres-
sive stancethan were the bulls. ClassicWestern technicaltheory stated
that after a congestionband, the market's trend should have resumedin
the same direction that it had before the congestionband. In this ex-
ample, the precedingtrend was down. Thus, the bearishcandle action
during the lateral range reinforced the classicwestern theory and in-
creasedthe odds of a continuation of the precedingdowntrend.
In the next section,using information on how the open comparesto
the closewill be discussed.But before that, I will discussnew ways of
interpreting candle patterns. This methodology will help illuminate the
theory and marketactionbehind eachcandlepattern. Eachcandlepattern
in this book will be illustrated four ways (refer to Exhibit 2.22).
Exhibit 2.27 (B) The blended candle-If the candle pattern has more
than one candleline, you cancombinethem to make a singlecandleline,
which I call ablendedcandle.
This method is sometimesused in the ]ap-
anesecandlestickliterature to help clarify whether a pattern is bullish or
bearish.The blended candle is an individual line that is a combination
of the open, high, low, and closeof all the candle lines in the pattern.
TheBasics 37
I
c
o
7
HighofthePattern
F---------
"1.
Lowofthe
pattern
(A)
CandlePattern
TI" "_f"""
(c)
AnchorChart
(B)
Blended
Candle
EXHIBIT 2.27. CandlePatternAnalysis
As shown in Exhibit 2.27(B), the blended candleis drawn using a four-
stepprocess:
1. Use the open of the first sessionof the candlepattern as the open of
the blended candle.
2. Use the high of the candle pattern (in other words, the top of the
highest upper shadow) as the high of the blended candle.
3. Use the low of all the sessionsof that pattern (i.e., the bottom of the
lowest lower shadow) asthe low of the blended candle.
4. Use the closeof the last sessionof the candle pattern as the closeof
the blended candle.
Basedon the insight offered by the blended candle line in Exhibit
2.27,we can deducethat the two-candlecombinationin Exhibit 2.27(A)
is a bearishcombination. This is becausethe blended candle shows the
bearish aspectsof a long uPPer shadow and small real body near the
bottom of the range.
Exhibit 2.27(C) Anchor charts-Those who draw the candlechartsby
hand and are tracking many markets or are restricted in time may find
this task to be burdensome.One way to circumventthis (besidesbuying
software)is to consider using anchor lines instead of candlelines. The
anchor chart as previously discussed,is composed of the open, high,
low, and close.If the anchor is pointing uP, it means that the closeis
higher than the oPen (with the arrow part of the anchor rePresentingthe
close).An anchor pointing down meansthat the closeis lower than the
oPen.
Although the anchorchart is lessvisual than the candlechart, it pro-
vides the sameinformation and is faster to draw. The disadvantageto
the anchor chart is that you don't have the quick color clue, as you do
(D)
Directional
Pattern
Analysis
38 Candles
with the candle's white and black real bodies. But you can draw up
sessionsin red and down sessionsin black (remember,however, that
unlessyou have a color printer, all the anchor lines will be black when
a hard copy is printed).
Exhibit 2.27(D) Directionalpattern Analysis-To clarify the market,s
path that unfolds during the candle pattern, I will draw arrows reflecting
the market'sbasicintra-sessionaction.I call thisdirectional
patternanalysii.
The path shown by the market's actionin the directionalpattern anaiysis'
canbe used as a rough method to gaugethe overall price action during
the session.Although the arrow in the directionalpattern analysiswill
show the path taken by the market during the sessfon,it will not show
the order of when thesepriceswhere touched.
For example,basedon the relationshipof the real body and shadows
of the first white candlein Exhibit 2.27(A), we know that, at sometime
during the session,pricesmoved under the opening price. However, we
do not know when the price moved under the open. Atrhile
the arrow in
Exhibit 2.27(D) may make it appearthat the market immediatelvmoved
lower after the opening, it may not have unfolded that way. The market
insteadmay haverallied after the open and later in the sessionfell under
the opening price. Thus, it is important to keep in mind that the direc-
tional pattern analysisshould be thought of as a visual clue about the
relative price action of the open, high, low, and closecomparedto one
another. However, it doesnot tell us the sequenceof that price action.
Opening Comparedto Prior Real Body
A disadvantageof candlechartsis that they requirethe closeto complete
the candleline. Therearesomeways around this limitation. One t,.thod
is to go to a shorter time. In other words, if you are looking at a daily
chart,you cansometimesget a signalon the hourly chartbeforethe close
of the daily session.Another mechanismto bypasi waiting for the close,
and the one I will focus on here, is comparing the opening to the prior
real body.
Exhibit 2.28 (A) illustratesthat if the opening is under the midpoint
of the previous white real body, it could be a bearish scenario.
^Con-
versely,if the next day's opening is abovethe blackbody's midpoint, as
shown in Exhibit 2.28 (B), it courd be viewed ur u poiitive sign. This
concept might be useful for those who are more aggressive"r,d ,irk-
orientedand would want to buy or sellon an openingratherthan waiting
for a close.
This techniqueis more important for stocksthan for futures. This is
because
the futures market's higher volatility makesit more likely for the
h
TheBasics 39
EXHIBIT 2.28. (A) The
TraditionalCandleLine or
Pattern
EXHIBIT 2.28. (B) Opening
Comparedto Prior RealBody
l l
I1
1 /
"
price to open away from the prior close (remember that for prices to open
above or below the prior real body's midpoint, it has to open away from
the prior close). However, for a stock, such an occurrence is rarer, and
as a consequence more significant.
The chart of Manville (Exhibit 2.29)gave three signalsthat it was in
ffouble in mid-1992.Firstwas the long upper shadowcandleat the arrow
(shadowsare discussedin detail in the next sectionof this chapter).This
showed the market rejected the $11 zone. The next signal was when
Manville opened under the center of the prior white real body. Final
bearishconfirmation camethe following week when the market gapped
lower.
In Exhibit2.30,inthe sessionmarkedby the arrow, the marketopened
abovethe midpoint of the prior black real body. This positive develop-
40 C-andles
+rI|,iliil+
l'-
.o- UPPer
shadow
,ttl',i*f,[t*'
MANVILLE
- WEEKLY
t n F
10.0
s.5
s.0
9.5
8.0
7.5
10.5
10.0
9.5
9.0
s.5
7 n
5 . 5
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
' g l N 0 '92 F 11 A f1 J J A s o N o ,93 F tl A fl J
EXHIBIT 2.29. Open Under the Center of Prior White RealBody, Manville-Weeklv
ment was reinforced by the white candle's high volume activity. This
volume showed the pressureof the buying force.
Spinning Tops
we have seenthe power inherent in tall white or black real bodies. A
tall white body reflectsa strong sessionin which the bulls arein control,
whereasa long blackrealbody meansthat the bearsarein charge.Now,
what would it mean if, instead of tall real bodies, there were small real
bodies?This would tell us that the bulls and bears are in a tug of war
and that there is more of a balancebetween supply and demand. Such
small real bodies, called spinning tops, tell us that the power to move
up or down is lacking, or asthe ]apanesephraseit, the "market
is losing
its breath."
As shown in Exhibit 2.3L, these are spinning tops even if the lower
and/or uPPershadowsarelarge.It is the diminutive sizeof the realbo$r
The Basics 41,
RUBBERMAID
- DAILY
35.0
34.5
34.0
? 2 F
33.0
32.5
5 t - u
3r.5
3t.0
30.5
30.0
2S.5
23.0
28.5
35.0
34.5
34.0
32.5
5 Z . U
3 t .5
? 1 n
30.5
30.0
29.5
? q n
28.5
,E3 F t o t5 L2
EXHIBIT 2.30. Open Above the Centerof a BlackRealBody, Rubbermaid-Daily
that defines a spinning top. A spinning toP is a warning sign that the
market is losing its momentum. For instance,if the market is at or near
a new high-especially after a steepadvance-the emergenceof a spin-
ning top could be a signal that the bulls are having trouble in continuing
their ascent.This could be a cautionary signal that the prior move is
stalling.
In Exhibit 2.32, the strong, long white real bodies at the end of July
left no doubt about who had control of this market-the bulls. But the
two spinning tops after theselong white real bodies sent out a warning
Realbodycan be
blackor white
il
EXHIBIT 2.31. Spinning ToPs
42 Candles
EXHIBIT 2.32. Spinning Tops, Dow |ones-Daily
that the bulls were unable to maintain the momentum of their advance.
The arrival of the spinning tops showed that the market was losing its
vitality. The black candles after the spinning top added more reason to
suspecta turn.
Accumulation and Distribution
One of the most powerful and important aspectsof candlechartsis their
ability to meld themselveswith any other form of technical analysis. Let
us, for example,uncover how one candle (the spinning top), combined
with volume, can provide critical information about the inner workings
of the market.
Two key conceptsrelating volume to price action are those of accu-
mulation and distribution. Accumulation occurs when, at a low price
level, there is a high volume sessionwith stagnant prices. The high vol-
ume relays that the bears are attacking full force, throwing all their re-
sourcesand ammunition into the fray. But the stagnantprices during the
sessionshow that the bearsare unable to drag down prices.All that the
bearshave tried to sell has been accumulatedby the bulls. After such a
scenario,the bears may either run out of ammunition of just give up.
The consequence
of either of theseis a rally.
Distribution is the oppositeof accumulation.Distribution occurswhen,
at a high price level, there is heavy volume but virtually frozen prices.
What is happening in such an environment is that the "smart" money
is thought to be distributing their supply to meet all the buying that is
entering the market. With distribution, the sellers are offering enough
supply to meet all the buyer's demand, thus keeping prices in check.
Distribution should therefore be viewed as a topping scenario.
Note that as part of the definition for either accumulation or distri-
bution, there must be little price movement. A spinning top reflects a
sessionin which there is little price action (as defined by the difference
betweenthe open and the close).So,by combiningvolume with spinning
tops, we can determine when there is accumulation or distribution.
TheBasics 43
EXHIBIT 2.33. Spinning ToPsand
Accumulation, April 1993Crude Oil-
Daily
44
Exhibit2.33showsthat a spinning top candlestickemergedon January
12.Note alsothe heavy volume of that session.As describeabove,stag-
nant prices and high volume at a low price level are classicsigns of
accumulation.The high-volume spinning top in this exampleshowsthat
the selling Pressurewas easily absorbed.This positive sign was further
reinforcedby the fact that this spinning top sessionmade a new low for
the move, yet the bearswere unable to maintain thesenew lows.
In Exhibit 2.34, June'stall white candle sessionwas also a high-vol-
ume session.This was a very bullish developmentinsofar asthe market
moved up sharply with strong buying interest (as gauged by the high
volume). However, what occurredin the next sessionwas causefor con-
cern. In that session,a small real body (i.e., a spinning top) emerged.
The volume on the spinning top session(circledon the chart) was not
as extremeas it was the prior day. Yet, looking back at the volume at
the bottom of the chart, we see that it was nonethelessa very high-
volume sessioncomparedto the prior periods. Consequently,there was
a high-volume spinning top session.rvhat does that tell us? The high
volume reflects a market in which the bulls came out in force, but the
smallrealbody-the spinning top-means that the bearswere aggressive
enough to almost stalematethe bull's advance.This action was a classic
sign of distribution. The small real bodies over the next few sessions
EXHIBIT 2.34. spinning Top and Distribution september 1991silver-Daily
TheBasics 45
continued to echo the inability of the bulls to propel this market. Note
how the longestreal bodies following the spinning top were black. This
showed that the bearshad gained a foothold on the market.
Doii
One of the more important individual candlestick lines is the doji. As
shown in Exhibit 2.35, a doji sessionhas a horizontal line instead of a
real body. This is becausea doji is formed when the session'sopen and
closeare the same(or almost the same).If the market is trading laterallv,
a doji is neutral. In essencethe doji is echoing, on a micro scale,the
indecision reflected on a more macro scaleby the market's sideways
action. However, a doji that emergesafter the mature part of an uptrend
or sell-off has a gteater chance of a market turn. At such a time, the
Japanese
say that a doji provides "a hint of tops and bottoms."
One should be especially cautious about a doji that arisesafter a tall
white candle which in turn aPPearsafter a significant uptrend. This is
true whether the doji is within the prior long white real body or above
it. Such action representsa disparity about the stateof the market. Spe-
cifical$, the rally and tall white candles during such a rally tell us that
the bulls are still in charge. But a doji means that the bulls are failing to
sustainthe upside drive. This is shown in Exhibit 2.36.
How do you decide whether a near doji day (i.e., where the open
and closearevery close,but not exact)should be considereda doji?One
method is to look at a near doji day and compareit to recent action. If
there is a seriesof very small real bodies,I would not view the near dOji
day assignificantsinceso many other recentperiodshad smallreal bod-
ies or doji. (Other methods are coveredin my first book).
As mentioned before, a doji is meaningful when it arises after a tall
white candle during an uptrend. In this scenario,the market is consid-
I
I
'{l+I l,uu,n r'il*
"
r,il.
Examplesof Doii
EXHIBIT 2.3s. Doii
t l
EXHIBIT 2.35. Doji After a Tall White RealBody
46
f ; t r
I ' l
I
EXHIBIT 2.37. Doii asResistance I
eredby the Japanese
to be "tired." Also, as shown in Exhibit2.37, the
top of a doji session(that is, the top of the upper shadow) often repre-
sentsresistance.However, if the highs of the doji sessionare exceeded,
then the market's uptrend should continue. This is discussedin more
detailbelow.
A common mistake among those who use canctesis to use a doji as
an outright buy or sell signal. This is not correct.The doji indicates,as
the japanesesay, "a crossroads
betweenthe bulls and the bears." While
the doji can mean the market may reverseits prior trend, tradersshould
view the doji as echoing a market in transition rather than being an
outright reversal pattern. Basedon this, traders should wait until the
next sessionor two after the doji to show them which way the market
will move.
If there is a doji during a rally, and if the market continues strong
afterthis doji, it is a bullish indication sincethe markethasresolveditself
from the stateof transition (asshown by the doji) to its new trend-up.
Thus, while a doji that appearsafter a rally could be an indication of a
reversal(sincethe market is at a crossroads),
it is bestto wait for bearish
confirmationover the next day or two to get a top reversalconfirmation.
For thosewho sellon a doji, the doji should actasresistance(seeExhibit
2.37).If the market closesabovethe high of the doji, the japanesesay
the market has become "refreshed." Basedon this, a buy stop should
be placedabovethe high of the doji. The oppositewould be true with a
doji in a downtrend. To wit, a doji in a downtrend showsthat the market
is at a point of indecision, and a white candle after such a doji shows
that the market has resolveditself to the bull side. A buy basedon the
doji after a downtrend should have a sell stop under the doji's low (in-
cluding the lower shadow). This is becausesuch a scenariois viewed as
a bearishcontinuation signal.
one of the most fascinating aspectsabout candle charts is that, in
spite of their underlying simplicity, they provide so much valuable in-
formation about the state of the market. For example,what is more il-
il
TheBasics 47
,,+Tr
0""
I
I
doji'---> f
doli--'-----+f
, l
t l
l , '
(A) (B)
EXHIBIT 2.38. Doji After Extended Move
ooii----- -l-
(c)
lustrative of a market in balance than a doji? That simple, individual
candleline relayshow a market is in a stateof balancebetweenthe bulls
and bears.As a result, the market may be at a transition point. All this
information in one candleline!
An important aspectabout doji (the plural of doji is also doji) is that
traders should look at where the doji appearsin a trend. Exhibit 2.38
showsa doji in relationto the trend. As in Exhibit 2.38(A),the appearance
of a doji after a steep advance or in an overbought market could be a
top. However, as shown in Exhibit 2.38(8),if the market just startedto
rise, it indicatesthere is less of a chancethat the market is at a top. In
Exhibit 2.38(C)we seehow the emergenceof a doji after a precipitous
declinecould mean a bottom. Exhibit 2.38(D)displaysa market that has
just begunto fall. In this scenario,pricesmay continuetheir descenteven
after a doji. The main conceptbehind Exhibit 2.38 is that doji become
more important asa reversal signal the more overbought or oversold the
market.
In Exhibit 2.39,we noticearally that startedin earlyNovemberstalled
aftertwo doji following a tall white candle.The appearance
of thesedoji
told of a market in which the bulls and bears were in equilibrium. This
was very different from the prior session when the tall white candle
displayed avibrant and healthy market in which the bulls were in control.
These doji were showing, as the fapanesewould phrase it, that "the
market is separatingfrom its trend."
As discussedbefore,doji becomeresistance.
In this chart,thereis also
a long black real body candle (at the arrow) a few days after the doji.
This black real body should also be resistance.With this in mind, the
doji sessionsand the long black real body provided a resistancezone in
(D)
48 &ndIes
oo,iloil
GAP_ DAILY
'92 09 15 23 D 0Z 11 2t 28'93 tl t8 25 t 08 16 22 08
7 7 F .
32.0
7( tr,
? 6 6
? 4 q
? 4 n
9 r n
? t 6
J T .U
? N F
30.0
) q 6
38.0
77 tr,
2 7 n
? ( 6
JD, U
? q 6
? E N
? 4 6
? ? 6
< < t l
?1 tr
J L r J
a f | |
n i n
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? n 6
30.0
EXHIBIT 2.39. Doji After a Tall White Candle, Gap-Daily
the $37to $38area. It was within here that the market failed during the
early 1993rally.
The arrow in Exhibit 2.40points to a doji sessionin which the open,
low, and closeare at the bottom end of the session'srange. This doji is
known as a gravestonedoji. A gravestonedoji looks like a wooden me-
morial used in Buddhist funeralsthat is placedat a gravestone.It is said
that thosewho buy at a high price level after this doji will die and become
ghosts.(Thosefamiliar with candlepatternswill note how this doji was
part of a classicevening doji star pattern [this pattern is discussedin
Chapter3l).
Exhibit 2.41 shows how the small real bodies at 1 and the doji at 2
warned that the market was losing its upside drive. After trading in a
lateralrange for a few weeks, prices ascendedto new highs in late ]an-
uary. However, there were two cluesthat the rally might not be sustain-
able.The first was the doji at 3. This showed that, although the market
had reachednew highs, the upside drive had stalled.Another clue was
TheBasics 49
EXHIBIT 2.40. GravestoneDoji August 1993Natural Gas-Intra-Day
provided by the rate of change(ROC)oscillator.This oscillatorcompares
today's closingprice to that of ten sessionsago.
For this example, I show the ten day ROC. This comparestoday's
closeto that of ten days ago. With a healthy market, traders would like
to seean increasingROC oscillator.This reflectsthat the market'supside
momentum is growing as prices are ascending.However, note how at
doji 2, Dell touched a new high, yet the ROC oscillator was at a lower
reading than it was at the prior highs in December.This underscoresa
slackeningof the upside drive.
Thus, the ROC oscillator helped reinforce the bearish implication of
doji 2. As further confirmation of a top, there was the long black candle
on the day after doji 3. A few days after this black candle, the ROC
oscillatorfell under 0 (sometechniciansview that as a time to sell).This
chartis an exampleof how easyit is to combinethe candleswith Western
technicaltools.
50 Candles
EXHIBIT 2.41. Doji and Momentum, Dell-Daily
SHADOWS
While the real body is often considered the most important segment of
the candle, there is also substantial information to be gleaned from the
length and position of the shadows. Thus, the location and the size of
the shadow should also be considered when analyzing the psychology
behind the market.
A tall upper shadow is especiallyimportant when it appearsat a high
price level, at a resistancearea, or when the market is overbought. This
is becausesuch a candle line would hint that there is either heavy supply
entering at higher prices or an evaporation of buying. In either case(see
Exhibit 2.42),a long upper shadow could be a bearish development. A
long lower shadow candle that bouncesfrom a support area,or appears
in an oversold market, could be an important clue that the bearsarelosing
control.
DELL& 1OPERIOD
ROC 02123r33
0
-25
{9
{8
17
15
15
11
4?
12
4L
{0
<K
37
36
?E
31
JL
-Ff
'T{lu,*o*hl;+T
"*il'.
lF
' '1,
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19
18
17
16
15
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13
12
4L
10
?q
JU
37
36
?6
31
JJ
37
'92 2l 2g '93 11 t8 tt OB t5 22
TheBasics 51
TI
l l
Bearish-Long
Upper
Shadows
Bulllish-Lono
Lower
Shadoils EXHIBIT 2.42. Long Shadows
In Exhibit 2.43,in early L992there was a hint of trouble with the doji
following the tall white candle. Rememberingthe conceptthat the doji
sessionshould be resistance,the market stalled at the doji's high over
the next two weeks.The two candlesafter the doji had long upper shad-
ows. Theseshadowsdisplayedthat therewas either very aggressive
sell-
ing nearthe 109level,or that buying quickly evaporatednearthesehighs.
In either case,these long lower shadows showed a dampening of the
rallying strength. Further evidence of the importance of this resistance
was the failure there in mid-1992.
Exhibit 2.M displaysthat candlesL, 2, and 3 rebounded from near
59Cvia long lower shadows. These long lower shadows reflected the
solidity of the support and the eagernessof the buying. Also important
was the length of the basethat had been built. For almost two months,
EXHIBIT 2.43. Long Upper Shadows Confirm Resistance,Notionnel Bond-Weekly
52 Candles
EXHIBIT 2.44. Long Lower Shadows Confirm Support, fune 1993DeutscheMark-
Daily
the bearstried to break pricesunder 59cand they failed. In general,the
longer the base, the more solid the scaffolding on which a rally can be
built.
A popular moving averageamong futures traders is the 65-day mov-
ing average. This line often swerves as support or resistance. For ex-
ample, note how in Exhibit 2.45 that it was support in early November
and again in early |anuary. The test of this support in early fanuary via
long lower shadows, shows how strongly and quickly the market sprang
from there. For those who are familiar with candles, the first long lo*",
shadow candle is a hammer. Hammers will be explained in the next
chapter.
High-Wave Candles
A candlewith a long upper and lower shadowsis calledahigh-wnae
candle
(shown in Exhibit 2.46).It showsthat the market is in a standoffbetween
the bulls and bears. when a high-wave emerges after a downtrend or
uptrend, the |apanesesaythat the market has lost its senseof direction.
This lack of market orientation meansthat the prior trend is in jeopardy.
TheBasics 53
EXHIBIT 2.45. Long Lower ShadowsConfirm Support, March 1993S & P Futures-
Daily
A doji that has long upper and lower shadows is either called a high-
wave doji or a long-leggeddoji.
In Exhibit 2.47, a seriesof high-wave candlesare displayed at 1',2,
and 3. The high-wave candle at L hinted that the bulls and bearswere
at a standoff.The actionthat precededcandlet had a bearishbias.Thus,
with the appearanceof high-wave candle 1, the market had sent out a
clue that the trend was probably in the processof change. This outlook
was reinforced by the dual white candles after high-wave candle 1. The
market ascendedfrom candle L until it got to another high-wave candle
(at 2). From there, prices declined sharply in the next sessionvia a long
blackreal body. However, at the sessionafter this long black real body,
a candle with an extended lower shadow (at X) showed that the lows
I
EXHIBIT 2.45. High-Wave Candles
54 Candles
MetaStock
by EQUISInt'l
EXHIBIT 2.47. High-Wave Candles,December1993Crude Oil
from the prior week had become an attractive buying area. As prices
ascendedfrom candleX, a whisper of trouble emergedvia the high-wave
candleat 3. Two days later the long black candle showed that the bears
had enteredthe market in force, and asa result, increasedthe likelihood
that the high-wave candleat 3 was a top reversal.
CRUDE
OIL- DEC.
1993
1 9 . 5 19.
5
19.
0 19,
0
1 0 6
lB.5
lB,0 rB.
0
17,5 t7.5
lz.0 li.0
l / f
l b , 3 16.
5
33 3 0 s07 l 3 20 lt IB ?5 OB 15
CHAPTER
3
THE PATTERNS
H E 6 i f 6 - - . 3 t Z E 6 D
"He WhoseRanksare Unitedin PurposeWiIl BeVictoious"
Dince the publication of my first book, I have had new ]apanesematerial
translated,have met new Japanese
traders,and have continued my dia-
logueswith those japanesetraders who have previously helped me. In
addition, I have alsohad anotherthree yearsof hands-onexperience.As
a result, I have gleanednew insights and conceptsthat will be conveyed
to you in this chapter.
This chapter will not be a referenceto all the patterns that are in my
first book. Instead, my aim here is twofold. For those new to candles,
this chapter will reveal how some of the more common and important
candlepatternscanprovide powerful insightsinto your market analysis.
For those already knowledgeable about the candles,you will discover
new refinementsand trading techniques.It is especiallyimportant to read
the detailed descriptionsof the charts. It is in these that you will most
easilyseesomeof the new refinementsof candletheory, aswell assome
new concepts.
As one of the Japanese
booksI had translatedstated,"the psychology
of the market participant, the supply and demand equation, and the
relative strengths of the buyers and sellersare all reflectedin the one
candlestickor in a combination of candlesticks."l In this chapter, I will
describethe many usesand trading insights provided by individual can-
dle lines and candle patterns based on two or more candle lines. The
organization of this chapter is based on the number of lines that form
the pattern. Consequently,this chapter's first sectionwill focus on in-
dividual candle lines, such as the hammer and shooting star. The next
sectionwill delve into candle patterns comprised of two candle lines.
55
56
Theseinclude the dark cloud cover and two gapping black candles.The
final sectionin this chapter will addressthose candle patterns, such as
the evening star and record sessions,which have three or more candle
lines.
SINGLE CANDLE LINES
In Chapter 2, I detailed how the length of the shadows can relay infor-
mation about the resiliencyof the bulls or the bears.For example,a long
upper shadow echoesthe ability of the bears to regain control of the
market during a rally. A long lower shadow pictorially reflects the bulls'
ability to rally the market after the market's new sessionlows havebeen
made.
In this section,the single candle lines I will be describing(the ham-
mer, hanging man line, and the shooting star) either have a long upper
or lower shadow. But, becausethey alsopossessthe important aspectof
having a small real body near the top or bottom of the trading range,
these candles lines take on increasedimportance when using candle
charts.
The Hammer
As shown by Exhibit 3.1-,the hammer, with its long lower shadow and
a closenear or at the high, is easily understood to be a bullish signal.
Theterm "hammer" derivesfrom the factthat the marketis "hammering
out a base," or that a bottom is so solid that it does not break, even
when a hammer knocks away at it.
, , 1
V
EXHIBIT 3.L. The Hammer
ThePatterns
An aspectof the hammer is that it must appear after a significant
downturn or in an oversold market to have significance.The hammer is
a reversalindicator, and as such, should have a downtrend to reverse.
A hammer that appearsafter a fall of, say, two or three days is usually
not important. Sincethe hammer is most useful after a significant down-
turn, it should be noted that there may be selling on a rally from the
hammer. As such, the first bounce from the hammer may fail and the
market may return to test the hammer's support.
Consequently,trading with the appearanceof a hammer dependson
a trader's aggressiveness
and risk adversity. Sometradersmay decideto
buy immediately after the hammer appearsin casethe market does not
pull back to retest the hammer. Sometradersmay decideto wait to see
if the market returns to the hammer, and if so, will buy on that return
move. If the market successfullyteststhe hammer's support area,there
is then a more solid support areaand abetterchancefor arally. A method
that I sometimesrecommend to our clients is to lightly test the waters
from the long side after a hammer, and then add the remainder of the
long position after (and if) there is a successfultest of the hammer.
Whichever methodology is used, a stop (basedon the close)could be
placedunder the lows of the hammer.
Exhibit 3.2 displays a classichammer in that the extremelength of
the lower shadow reflectshow aggressivelythe bulls were ableto propel
pricesoff the lows of the session.The bounce from this hammer stalled
during the next few sessions.But the pullback held the hammer's sup-
port. This action helped enlarge the base upon which to build a more
substantialrally.
A trading tool that I find useful with candlesis a Western technique
calleda spring.As shown in Exhibit 3.3, a spring occurswhen the bears
are unable to hold prices under a broken support area. Becausesuch
action proves that the bears were unable to grab control of the market
when they had their chance, it should be viewed as a bullish develop-
ment. The oppositeof a spring is an upthrust.An upthrust occurswhen
the market makesa new high, but then fails to hold that high. Upthrusts
will be addressedin the section titled "The Shooting Star" later in this
chapter.(Springsand upthrusts are describedin detail in my first book.)
An ancient oriental book on military tactics referred to gaining an
advantageover the enemy by acting as a "moving shadow." This term,
asusedby the warrior who wrote that book, meansthat when you cannot
seethe stateof your opponent, you pretend to make a powerful attack
to uncoverthe intention of the enemy.This concept,asrelatedto trading,
is one of the reasonsa spring is so important.
Probesof support or resistanceareasare attempted throughout the
marketsby large-scaletraders. They want to discover how the market
57
58 Candles
AMGEN_ DAILY
7g
78
)7
7S
7q
71
1 a
I J
72
7l
70
68
67
b b
65
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59
5B
57
56
[ilrItil'+rIr-i
*r,n+r1n*ilta4ill1rt,*,,,,0,*tn*
+rl-+++l*oril
Hammer
|
'"'t
79
7B
77
76
75
71
73
72
7l
70
6S
68
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66
65
61
63
62
6l
60
59
5B
57
56
'92 S 08 t4 2t 28 0 t2 19 26 N 09 16 23 D
MetaStock
byEQUISInt'l
EXHIBIT 3.2. Hammer as Support, Amgen-Daily
will react once a support or resistancearea is pierced. In effect, these
traders act like the aforementioned "moving
shadow," testing the bat-
tlefield by entering a large order to try and break support (or resistance).
For example, if a large-scaletrader placesa sell order as the market gets
near support, their sell order may be enough to drag prices under the
support area.Now, this trader, as a "moving
shadow,,, will now learn
about the underlying strength of the market. If the market fails to hold
under a broken support area and forms a spring, these "moving
shad-
ows," (i.e., the sellerswho were attempting to probe the market), now
have learned about the tenacity of the bulls and as a result may decide
to cover their shorts.
" , , " " ,
, " ' , , " "
Suppod _
EXHIBIT 3.3. Spring Sprins
ThePatterns 59
EXHIBIT 3.4. Hammer and a Spring, Gold-Weekly
In Exhibit 3.4, we seeone of the more powerful combinationsof East-
ern and Western technicals-a hammer and a spring. The 1993low was
formed by a hammer. This hammer was also a spring since the low of
the hammer's lower shadow stightly punctured a support zone, but
sprangback above this broken support line. Also of interest in this chart
is that the high made near $360in mid-1992rwasformed by a doji follow-
ing a tall white candle.
The Hanging Man
As shown in Exhibit 3.5, a hanging man has a very long lower shadow,
a small real body (white or black) near the upper end of the trading range
and little or no upper shadow. This is the same shape as the hammer
line. However, asexpressedin the Japanese
literature, "If it appearsfrom
below, buy, and if appearsfrom above,sell."
This phrase meansthat the sameshapeline canbe bullish or bearish,
depending on where it appearsin a trend. If this line appears "from
below," that is, during a decline, it is a bullish hammer. However, if this
sameshapeline appears"from above," that is, during an uptrend, it is
a sell signal and is referred to as a hanging man line.
60
,,Black
,_rr orWhite
I l- crose
shourd
be
, | | under
hanging
man's
, I
reatbody
l l
l l
T
EXHIBIT3.5. TheHangingMan I
Thus, the hanging man line is a top reversal signal that must arrive
during a rally, while the hammer is a bottom reversal line that must
appear during a decline; the same line can be bullish or bearish, de-
pending on the trend preceding it. In this context, it is interesting that
the japanesehave two words for rice. They call it either "raislJ,,
oi ,,go-
han." Raisu is the |apaneseterm for rice when it is prepared westJrn
style. The term "raisu"
even soundslike the western word "rice.,,
Go-
han alsomeansrice,but it is ricepreparedjapanesestyle.In otherword.s,
the Japanese
refer to the exactsameproduct-rice-by different names.
tVhatsurrounds the rice determines whether the rice is referred to as
raisu or gohan. So it is with the hammer and hanging man. whether the
candle line is a bullish pattern (the hammer) or a bearish pattern (the
hanging man) is dependent on what precedesthe line.
with the hanging man's long lower shadowreflectingbuying interest,
it may seem that the hanging man is a bullish signal. However, the
hangman's action shows that once the market has fallen, it has become
very fragile. The smallteal body of the hanging man alsoshowsthat the
prior uptrend may be in the processof changing. Becauseof the bullish
action of the hanging man session(during the sessionthe market sells
off and then ralliesby the close),an important aspectof the hanging man
lines is that there should be bearishconfirmation. A common method of
bearishconfirmation of a hangman is to wait to seeif the next session,s
closeis under the hanging man's realbody. This is shown in Exhibit 3.5.
The reasonfor the importanceof this confirmation hasto do with the
fact that the hanging man's long lower shadow shows that there is still
rising power left in the market. However, if pricesfall under the hanging
man's real body, it translatesinto the fact that everyonewho bought at
the open or closeof the hanging man sessionis now losing money. In
such a scenario,these longs may decide to liquidate, and by doing so,
may engendera further weakening of prices.
since my seminaron the candlesat the world Bank in washington,
ThePatterns 61
CAIIDLESTICX (DAILI)
I
I
I . I I
,'tl
'lr,
, r--HansinsMan
;r"'*[l
gu",-t:1
}-ffliil' trrr
I
FteutersGraphics
EXHIBIT 3.6. Confirmation of
a Hanging Man, German
Bund-Daily
DC, someof their tradershave askedmy opinion on candlepatternson
various markets. One of their traders asked what I thought about the
chart of the German Bund shown in Exhibit 3.6. She askedmy opinion
on April 10after the hanging man was formed. I explainedto her that if
the hanging man were confirmed by a weaker sessionthe next day, the
outlook would be bearish.In this case,the market confirmedthe bearish
hanging man during the next session.
Exhibit 3.7 shows how important it is to wait for confirmation of a
hanging man session.In that chart, we seea hanging man. However,
note how the following week the bulls pushed prices abovethe high of
the hanging man. This meansthat thosewho bought during the hanging
man sessionnow have a profit. Consequently,there is little reasonfor
them to liquidate their longs. The result is that a higher closethan the
hanging man sessionvoids any of the bearish potential of the hanging
man. That is what happened here as the market exceededthe hanging
man session.Also of interestin this chart is that in April 1992,there was
a hammer that was alsoa bullish spring, sincethe hammer made a new
low which failed to hold.
An article about my work with candles in TheWall Streetlournal dis-
played the chart shown in Exhibit 3.8. In this article,I discussedhow the
hanging man at $40 helped confirm a top. I explained that before the
1990Mid-east crisis, the highest crude oil futures reachedwas around
$32(crudeoil futures begantrading in 1983).Once the market exceeded
that level, I had a target at around $40.That was a resistanceareain the
cashmarket back in 1979.Note that at the $40area,there was a bearish
candle signal via the hanging man line. The market retreatedfrom this
g40level and testeda support line. It then rallied and, with sort of a last
Candles
EXHIBIT 3.7. waiting for Confirmation of a Hanging Man, Bonds-weekly
EXHIBIT 3.8. Hanging Man Confirms Resistance, November 1990 Crude Oil-Dailv
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Beyond candlesticks steve nison

  • 2. + E f , E i [ E A L , "Itarning is Like RowingUpstream;Not to Adaanceis to Fall Back" a a a a a a a o o a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a
  • 3. BEYOND CANDLESTICKS New |apaneseCharting Techniques Revealed STEVENISON IOHN WILEY & SONS, INC. New York o Toronto o Chichester o Brisbane . Singapore
  • 4. WILEY FINANCE EDITIONS The New Technical Trader / Chande and Kroll Trading on the Edge / Deboeck ForecastingFinancial and Economic Cycles / Niemira and Klein TraderVic II / Sperandeo Genetic Algorithms and Investment Strategies/ Bauer Understanding Swaps / Marshall FractalMarket Analysis / Peters Trading Applications of ]apaneseCandlestickCharting / Wagner and Matheny Fixed-IncomeArbitrage / Wong Trading for a Living / Elder The Day Trader's Manual / Eng The Mathematics of Money Management / Vince Intermarket Technical Analysis / Murphy The Foreign Exchangeand Money Markets Guide / Walmsley Chaosand Order in the Financial Markets / Peters Portfolio Management Formulas / Vince Financial Statement Analysis / Fridson Money Management Strategiesfor Futures Traders / Balsara Dynamic Asset Allocation / Hammer RelativeDividend Yield / Spare Inside the Financial Futures Markets, 3rd Edition / Powers and Castelino Option Market Making / Baird Fixed-IncomeSynthetic Assets / Beaumont Selling Short / Walker The New Technology of Financial Management / Chorafas Managed Futures in the Institutional Portfolio / Epstein Analyzing and ForecastingFutures Prices/ Herbst ForecastingFinancial Markets / Plummer A Complete Guide to Convertible SecuritiesWorldwide I ZubLake Corporate Financial Risk Management / Wunnicke and Wilson Investing in Intangible Assets / Parr Treasury Operations and the Foreign ExchangeChallenge / Chorafas Trading and Investing in Bond Options / Wong
  • 5. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS a a a o a a a a a a a a a o r a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a o a a a a a a a = 6 N H T f f . A M H "You CnnnotClapWith OneHand" A J"p"r,"se book that I had translated said that: "|apanese charts are frequently considered secretive. The number of people who know the essentialsof these charts are few and referencematerial is scarce."l This paucity of material was particularly true with someof the new techniques revealedin the secondpart of this book. However, thanks to the help of someimportant individuals, I was able to uncover many previously hid- den aspectsof fapanesetechnical analysis. Without the assistanceof the translating done by Richard Solberg, it would have been almost impossible to write this book-or my first one! Not only did Richard ably do the translating, but equally important was his tenacity in finding and obtaining the japanesebooks I neededfor my basicresearch.Richard has been one of my most vital resources. As with my first book, I had the help of knowledgeable fapanese traders who helped refine my knowledge by sharing valuable insights obtained from their years of experience. Mr. Hiroshi Okamoto, Director at Nomura Investment Trust, Mr. Ya- suhi Hayashi, Senior Trader at Sumitomo Life Insurance, Mr. Nori Ha- yashi, Investment Manager at BarclaysTrust, and other members from the Nippon TechnicalAnalysts Association(NTAA) in |apan were all very gracious. I am sure many of my questions may have seemedvery rudi- mentary to them, but they were patient and open about sharing their knowledge. Without their insights, this book would be much less de- tailed. Mr. Kiyohiko Yoshizawa, vice president at Paine Webber, provided vu
  • 6. vlll Acknniedgments valuablenew factsand insights about the candlesduring our numerous meetings. One of my most important contactswas Mr. Yoji Inata, a correspon- dent for Reuters. Mr. Inata's assistancewas critical f<lr the new tools addressedin this book; we spent many hours together.Not only did he take his valuable time to review some of the new techniques to make sure I correctlyunderstood the ideas,but he also took the extra step of conferring with his ]apanesecolleagueson points about which he was not 100o/o sure. Mr. Inata said that he enjoyed our studying together. I think he was being polite. Although I may have contributed to his knowl- edgein somerespects,for the most part I was the student.I wasfortunate to have had a gracious,knowledgeable,and friendly teacher. Thanks again goesto my friend, BruceKamich. A true professional, he continues to provide me with a streamof insightful and helpful ideas. The editor of this book, Susan Barry, was also the editor of my first book. Susan had the foresight to see how brightly the interest in the candleswould burn. She was a major factor in my choiceof ]ohn Wiley & Sonsto publish this book. I hope Susandoesnot decideto move to a publishing firm in the Antarctic. If I ever do a third book, I would have to follow her. As an Englishpoet said: "Where ignoranceis bliss,wisdom is folly." Beforewriting my first book, I was blissfully ignorant of all the time and effort that goesinto such a project. That book, made me aware of how difficult the processis. Becauseof this, I had no desireto go through it all again.However, Dodge Dorland, Chief InvestmentOfficer of Landor Investment Management (New York, NY), gave me the push to do this secondbook. Dodge usescandlesto trade stockson an intra-day basis and hasbeenone of the earliestproponentsof candles.Anyone who has dealt with Dodge can vouch for his amiability and for his knowledge. Many of the charts in this book are from the MetaStock software by EQUIS International (Salt Lake City, UT). Without their assistancein providing me with the new software to draw the kagi, three-line break, and renko charts,this book would be much lessdetailed.Their excellent software, and helpful and knowledgeable staff makes MetaStock a plea- sure to use. For those interested in finding out more about the MetaStock software,there is a coupon included at the back of this book. The data usedfor the Metastockchartswasfrom Dial-Data(Brooklyn,NY). I found their data accurateand easilyaccessible. I would like to thank Shahrokh Nikkhah whose early appreciation of my work and desireto make availablethe many advantagesof candlestick analysisto his clients brought about my joining his team where we offer advisory and brokerage servicesat Daiwa SecuritiesAmerica. I would also thank my colleague,Mark Tunkel for taking the time to help proof-
  • 7. Acknowledgments read this book. In this, asin my first book, you will seemany CQG charts(Glenwood Springs, CO). They are a real-time graphicscharting service.CQG was among the first servicesin the West to offer candle charts to their clients. I have used their servicefor many years.The accuracyof their data and their support personnel, such as SteveOnstad in New York, make this a premier real-time charting service.Their excellentworldwide reputation is well justified. Reuters Ltd. (New York, London, and Tokyo) have also provided charts for this project. Their RTA technical analysis real-time charting product offers someunique capabilities.I have had the pleasureof giving a seriesof seminarsfor them throughout Europe. The fact that Reuters hasgone through the time, effort, and expenseto send me to Europefor theseseminarsshows how committed they arein meeting the educational needsof their clients. My first book, lapaneseCandlestick Charting Techniques, was written around the sametime asthe birth of my son,Evan. (At the time of Evan's bkth, I frightened my wife, Bonnie, when I said I was going to name him "Candlesticks Nison.") Evan is now four, and he enjoys "typing" on my keyboard.I tell you this so that if there are typos, I now have an excuse.My daughter, Rebecca, is eight and very bright. I have jokingly saidthat I wanted this book easyenough for a child to understand, so I think I'll askher to proofreadthesepages(yet anotherexcuseif you find any mistakes!).Finally, there is my loving and patient wife, Bonnie,who understands that it is great to have written, but most difficult to write. Final thanks go to those who provided another incentive for writing this book-the creditcardcompaniesand the bank that hasmy mortgage. Note loyama, Kenji,p.51. ix
  • 8. CONTENTS PART ONE: CANDLES Chapter Chapter INTRODUCTION 1 ovERvIEw 2 rHE BAsrcs History of the candlecharts, L3 Evolution of the candlecharts, L6 Constructionof the candleline, L8 Realbody and shadows,20 The realbody,20 Long white real bodies, 20 Long white at a low price level, 2L Long white candle confirms support, 2L Long white body breaksresistance,23 Long white real bodies as suPPort,25 Long black real body at high price area,29 Long black confirms resistance,30 Long black breakssupport, 31 Long black asresistance,33 Sizeand frequencyof real bodies, 35 Opening comparedto prior real body, 38 Spinning tops, 40 13 xl
  • 9. Contents Accumulation and distribution, 42 Doji,45 Shadows,50 High-wave candles, 52 55 a Chapter J THE PATTERNS Single candle lines, 56 The hammer, 56 The hanging man, 59 The shooting star, 64 Dual candle lines, 68 Dark cloud cover, 58 The piercing pattern, 73 The engulfing patterns, 76 Last engulfing patterns, 84 Harami, 86 The window, 93 Three windows, 102 Two black gapping candles, 105 Gapping doji, 106 Three or more candle lines, 109 The evening star, L09 The morning star, LL7 Recordsessions,1,21, A Chapter t CANDLES AND THE OVERALL TECHNICAL PICTURE Stops, 130 Risk/reward, L33 Trend, L37 Becoming a market chameleon, 142 Computers and candles, L44 The importance of where a candle appears,M The question of determining specificcriteria for the pattern, 145 Placing the trade, 147 When to offset a trade, L48 129
  • 10. Contents xiii PART 2: THE DISPARITY INDEX AND NEW PRICECHARTS INTRODUCTION 153 Chapter5 Chapter6 HOW THE IAPANESE USE MOVING AVERAGES The golden and dead cross,L57 The disparity index, 159 Trading with the disparity index, 159 The divergence index, L64 THREE.LINE BREAK CHARTS Construction of three-line break charts, L68 Trading with three-line break charts, l'74 lAlhite and black lines asbuy & sell signals, 174 Three-line break charts and candle charts, 176 Three-linebreak chartsand trend, 178 Other break charts, 181 Extra confirmation of a trend reversal, l'82 Black shoe, white and black suits, and a neck, 184 Recordsessionsand three-linebreak charts, L86 Western patterns and three-line break charts, L87 PRACTICESESSIONFOR THE THREE-LINEBREAK CHART CI Chapter / RENKO CHARTS Construction of renko charts, L99 Trading techniques with renko charts, 203 PRACTICE SESSION FOR THE RENKO CHART ar Chapter d KAGI CHARTS Constructionof kagi charts,215 Using percentagekagi charts,2L9 157 167 197 r97 207 2!3
  • 11. xiv Contents Trading techniqueswith kagi charts,220 Buy on yang, sell on yin,220 Shouldersand waists, 221 Multi-level br eaks,224 Length of yang and yin, 224 Where corrections stop within the prior kagi line, 226 Double windows, 227 Trendlines,2Sl Tweezers,232 Three-Buddhaand reversethree-Buddha,233 Recordsessions,235 PR,ACTICESESSIONFOR THE KAGI CHART CONCLUSION GLOSSARY BIBLIOGRAPHY INDEX 241 247 275
  • 12. a o o a a a a o a a a a a o a a o a o a o o o o o a a a o o o a o a o a a a o a a a PART + + @ CANDLES a a a a a a o a a a a o o o a a a a a a o a a a o a a a a a a o o a o a a a o a a a "Let EaeryBirdSingitsOwnSong" a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a o a a a a a a o a o a a a a a a a a a a a a t a
  • 13. INTRODUCTION 1. 2. 3. A chart is like a map, the more information eachone provides, the better the chance of reaching your destination safely. Candle charts display a more detailed and accurate map of the market than do bar charts. A Japanese book that I had translatedstated, "It is not an exaggerationto say that candlesticks are the best in the world and a very exquisite cre- ation for charts."l This is because,asdetailedbelow, candlechartsoPen new avenuesof analysis and offer many advantagesover bar charts: Candle charts will pictorially display the supply-demand situation by showing who is winning the battle between the bulls and the bears. Bar chartsdo not. Like bar charts, candle charts will show the trend of the market, but candlecharts add another dimension of analysisby revealing the force behind the move. Barchart techniquescan often take weeks to transmit a reversalsignal. However, candlechartswill often send out cluesof imminent reversals in one to three sessions.The result is that candle charts often provide the opportunity for more timely trades. Thesearejust somereasonswhy the flamesof interest in candlecharts grow ever brighter. In just a few years, candle charts have joined bar charts and point and figure charts as a basic charting technique. Candle charts are drawn using the samedata asbar charts (the open, high, low, and close),so they send all the samesignalsthat canbe found ot but charts.Yet, asjust discussed,the candlesoffer many advantages over bar charts, so using candle charts instead of bar charts is a win-win situation. When you use bar charts you only get bar chart signals. But, with candle charts you get all the bar chart signals, plus you gain the
  • 14. Candles unique and powerful insights provided by the candles.so, why use a bar chart? Becausethe ]apaneseare major players in most of the world's mar- kets, there is strong interest in how the |apaneseuse their technicalsto trade. Candlesare the most popular form of technicalanalysisin |apan. The importance of the candles for the |apanesetrading community is illustratedin the following quote from the Europeanmagazine,Euroweek. This articlequotesan English trader who works at a Japanese bank. He states:"All the|apanesetradershere-and that's in the foreign exchange, futures and equities markets-use the candles. It might be difficult to work out the billions of dollars traded in London on interpretationsof thesechartseachday, but the number would be significant."2 Think about it: Although billions are traded every day basedon the candle chart signals, until recently we had no knowledge of how the ]apaneseviewed the market with their technicals.This is hard to believe. Knowing the candles and their other technical tools discussedin this book may help answerthe question, "What arethe |apanesegoing to do next?." Yearsago,I met with the head of technicalanalysisfor one of fapan's largest life insurance companies (this fapanesetrader wanted to meet with me to learn how I used western technicalsto trade). IzVhen he walked into my office, he saw I had candle charts on my desk. In a surprised voice,he asked:"You know about the candles?."I respondedthat I did. I then askedif he used them. He told me that his company's top man- agementwould meeteachMonday to discussthe world markets.At these meetings,he would bring his candle charts to offer his technicalviews. Then he pointed to my candle charts and asked: "How many other Americansknow about this?." I said no one (this was before the publi- cation of my first book). He looked relieved. I then continued, "But I will soon have a book out about it." "So, many others will know about this?," he asked in a disappointed tone. The point of the story is that the Japanese trader cameto me to learn about how we, in the West, use technicals.The fapanesehave learnedfrom us and they know almost all of our technicalmethods. In most of the candlestickbooks and articlesI have had translatedfrom Japaneseto English, there was at least some referenceto westerntechnicaltechniques.A quotefrom one of the books I had translatedstated, "To understand stocksit is not enough to know the|apanesechartmethods . . . one must absorbthe bestpartsof western technicals:and on top of that using the best parts of Japanese chartsto make for a progressiveoutlook which is necessaryfor stock analysis."3 We canseefrom this statementhow the fapanesehaveusedour methods to enhancetheir own. one of the purposesof this book is to do the same
  • 15. lntroduction for Western traders-to show how to use the techniquesimplemented by the Japanese to enhanceour market knowledge. An article about my work appeared in the lapan Economic lournal. Tn it, the reporter states: "lapan, which has been in the position to learn many things from the West in the investments area, may be in the po- sition to teachsomething."4 We now have access to a wealth of technical information refined by generations to use; we afe learning from the Jap- anese. Chapter 2 shows how to draw the basiccandleline, and delvesinto somehistory of the candle charts. Later in that chapter, I show how a singlecandleline can provide important market insights. Chapter3 dis- cussesthe basiccandlepatterns. With the detailed descriptionsof these patterns,thosenew to candlesand candleexpertscandiscovernew mar- ket perspectives.The last chapter in this section,Chapter 4 focuseson how the overall technical picture is more important than a single candle pattern. Notes lHoshii, Kazutaka,p. L8. zEuroweek, August 30, 199'1. 3Yasui, Taichi,p. 95. aThe lapanEconomic Joumal,ldy 23, 7991
  • 16. CHAPTER 1 OVERVIEW {tJ,tE ) ) ( ffi n d- "The Buddhais Complete, But theEyesAre Not in Yet" (Thelob is Nof YetDone) THE EXPLOSIVE INTEREST IN THE CANDLES FF L here is a Japanese saying, "A cleverhawk hides its claws." For over a century, the claws of Japanesetechnical analysis,that is candlestick charts,were a secrethidden from the western world. For those new to the excitingfield of candlestickcharts,candlestick is the term used for Japan's most popular and oldest form of technical analysis.They are older than Western point and figure and bar charts. Amazingly, candlestickcharting techniques,used for generationsin the Far East, were virtually unknown to the West until I revealedthem in my first book, lapanese Candlestick ChartingTechniques. I am pleasedand proud that my first book has been credited with revolutionizing technical analysisby igniting the flames of interest in the candles.Beforeits publication, few people in the West had ever heard of a candlechart. Now, candlecharting techniquesare among the most discussedform of technicalanalysisin the world! Interest in candle chartshas becomeso intense that the World Bank in Washington,DC askedme to addressthem on the subject.The world- wide interest in these previously secrettechniquesare reflectedin the financialheadlinesbelow: lnstitutional lnaestor-"Revealed! AncientJapanese TradingSystem" WallStreet loumal-"lapan's Candlesticks Light Traders'Path" Euroweek-"Candlestick ChartingComesof Age"
  • 17. Candles Equity lnternational-"Candlestick Charting-A New Language for thewest" Reuters-"Candlesticks Light New Pathfor WesternChartists,, For over 70 years,the standardcharting tools in the west have been bar charts and point and figure charts. Yet, within a short time, candle chartshave now joined theseas a basiccharting tool. The rapidity with which this has happened is a direct reflectionof the candle'spopularity and value. The groundswell of interest in the candlestickcharting hasbecomea topic in the media. A TV show, TechTalk,on the businessnews cable station CNBC is hosted by the famous technician,fohn Murphy. john told me that a viewer oncecalledand askedhim, "What arethosecharts that look like hot dogs?" What aninterestingand amusingidea,I thought, to Americanizethesechartsby referring to them as hot dog charts. But I guessthe term "candle chart," thankfully, is here to stay. I have had many wonderful compliments from famous traders and analysts.However, the most endearingcompliment camefrom a woman who wrote, "lf you ever have a down day, just rememberthere's a nice little grandmother in Missouri who's in awe of your accomplishments." This letter, besidesbeing so gracious,illustratesthe universal appealof candles-from traders at the World Bank to a grandmother in Missouri. The reasonfor the popularity of candlestickanalysisis easy to un- derstand.They canbe melded with any other form of technicalanalysis, they are applicableto any of the markets to which technicalanalysisis applied, and they provide market insights not availableanywhere else. Why this book?A renowned 16th-centurysamuraiswordsmanstated that "learning is the gate, not the house. You first have to go through the gateto get to the house." My other book, lapaneseCandlestickCharting Techniques, took you to the gate.This book takesyou to the house and has many new, excit- ing, and effective techniques to improve your trading, investing, or hedging. Japanese chartingwas considereda secret.However, I have managed to pry open the "secretsof the Orient" by exchangingideaswith many Japanese traderswho usecandlesand by having many hundreds of pages translatedfrom ]apaneseinto English. Lin Yutang, a noted Chinesephi- losopher, sagelynoted that one gets a different flavor from reading the samebook at different stagesin life. Therefore,he says,all greatbooks canbe read with profit and pleasurea secondtime; I have found this to be true. In the time sincethe publication of my first book, I have rereadmy original candlestickdocuments and have gleaned new insights. In ad- dition, I have obtained and translatednew ]apanesematerial, have ex-
  • 18. Overuiew panded my dialogue with more fapanesetechniciansand, of course,have continued to learn from my use of candles.I reveal these new and val- uable insights in this book. My first book focused on the futures markets. The candleshave now becomeso important that their popularity has spilled over from futures into stock, bond, and foreign exchangemarkets from around the world. As a result, this book will have many more of the charts than did my other book. At times, a singlecandleline can be important. The Japanese have a saying, "With the fall of one leaf we know that autumn has come to the world." In this sense,a single candleline may be the first sign of a market turn. In this book, I will show how to useindividual candlelines to obtain cluesabout the market's health. It has been very exciting to see the intense interest sparked by the candles.However, it is often forgotten that the emergenceof a candle pattern is but one aspectof trading. Other aspects,such asthe risk and reward ratio of a potential trade and monitoring where the candlepattern appearsin the overall technicalpicture, must alsobe considered.This is so important that I have devoted a chapterto theseaspects. In my continuing studies of ]apanesetrading techniques, I have un- covered three charting methods that are very PoPular in ]apan, yet are unknown to the West. These charting techniques are called three-line break charts,kagi charts, and renko charts. They are revealedin Part 2 of this book. In the days of fur trading in the United States,there was a comPany called the Hudson Bay Trading Company. Th"y were known for taking risks and for careful preparation. Trading journeys were undertaken with much excitement,but in casethe fur traders forgot anything, they would camp out the first night just a few miles awayfrom the company's head- quarters. In other words, careful preparation spared the travelers poten- tial difficulties. In Chapters 2 and 3, I too provide careful preparation by providing a primer on basic candle theory and patterns. For those new to candle charts, thesechapterswill provide the groundwork for your candle chart analysis. Many of you are probably already familiar with the basicsof candle charts. With this in mind, Chapters 2 and 3 will also offer a deeper knowledge of the candlesby revealing new candle theories, techniques, and tools. As a result, even those knowledgeable about candleswill gain new insights and pelspectives into the power of the candle charts. For example,when I describethe candle patterns in Chapter 3, I will provide a unique visual glossary of candle patterns. This method of drawing the patterns will provide a dimension of candle pattern analysis that was
  • 19. 10 Candles never before available. After you explore with me the beauty and power of the candlecharts,you will never be ableto go back to a bar chart. This book will be a self-containedunit. I will not go over all the candle patterns; that is done in my first book. However, I will sometimesmake references to the moreobscureor rarepatternsdiscussedin my first book. This is for the benefit of those who are familiar with all the candle pat- terns. Do not worry if you have not heard of the pattern before; it will not detractfrom the discussionof the chart. Numerous charts and exhibits will quickly and clearly make evident how candlescanenhanceyour trading, timing, and investing. As shown throughout the book, candles can be merged with any other form of technicalanalysis.Consequently,I have included chartsthat show how to fully utilize the candles'power alone,or when joined with other tech- nical tools. Just as important as the recognition of candle patterns is an under- standingof the relationshipof the candlepatternsto the overalltechnical picture. Chapter 4 focuseson this vital, but often neglected,aspect.In this chapter,I will addresshow trading with the candlesmust take into accountthe risk and reward of a potential trade, the stop-out level, and the overall trend. I will also addressthe value of adapting to changing market conditions. BeforeI discusstrading with candles,I want to clarify a few points. In the futures market, selling short is ascommon asbuying long. This is not true in the stock markeU most equity traders look to buy. Conse- quently, throughout this book when I use the term "bearish" or "sell- ing" when discussinga stock,you should not think of necessarilygoing short. Instead,view it asan areato protect existinglongsby suchmeans as selling covered calls, moving up protective stops, or offsetting all or somelongs. But this book is about more than candles.In Part II I reveal the dis- parity index, the three-line break, renko charts, and kagi. These tech- niques,popular in Japan,arevirtually unknown in the west and, unlike candle charting, little has been written about these techniques, even in Japan. The disparity index comparesthe closeto a moving average.It is used in the samemanner as dual moving averages,but it has an interesting wrinkle to it. The three-line break, kagi charts, and renko charts are popular among Japanesetraders. They are excellenttechnicaltools for determining the trend of the market. Whether you use the techniquesdiscussedin this book individually or in combinationwith one another, you will discoverthat they provide dynamicadvantagesfor thosewho make useof their tremendouJpoten- tial.
  • 20. 11 Note to Reader: Many charts in this book, especiallyin Part II, were drawn using technicalanalysissoftware from Metastockby EQUIS In- ternational (Salt Lake City, UT). A coupon for Metastock Software is included at the end of the book.
  • 21. CHAPTER 2 THE BASICS d s d t . "lnattentionis Fatal" HISTORY OF THE CANDLE CHARTS rF I Hg fapanesewere the first to usetechnicalanalysisto trade one of the world's first futures markets-rice futures. The Japanese startedtrading in this market in the 1600s.Interestingly, the birth of the Japanese rice futures market was a consequence of the country's military history. After a century of internal warfare among the daimyo (Japanesefeu- dal lords), GeneralTokugawa Ieyasu, who ruled from Edo (the ancient name of Tokyo), won the famous battle at Sekigaharain 1600.This was the battle that helped unify fapan. TokugawathereafterbecameShogun of all ]apan. After his victory over the daimyo, General Tokugawa clev- erly required that all the feudal lords live in Edo with their families. When the lords returned to their respective provinces, the entire family stayed at Edo ashostage.The feudal lord's main sourceof incomewas rice that was collectedastax from the peasantswho worked their land. Sincethis rice could not be transported from the daimyo's provinces all the way to Edo, they setup warehousesin the port city of Osakato storetheir rice. Because all thesepowerful daimyo lived socloseto eachother in Edo, they attemptedto outdo one anotherin lavish dress,mansions,and other luxuries.This was reflectedby a popular sayingat the time, "The Edoite will not keep his earningsovernight." This showed that the daimyo in Edo were seenas spendthrifts with an expensivelifestyle. To maintain this lifestyle, the daimyo sold rice from their warehouse in Osaka; some- times thev even sold rice from future harvests.The warehousewould 13
  • 22. t4 Candles issuereceiptsfor this future rice. Thesewere calledempty rice contracts ("empty tice" since the rice was not in anyone's physical possession) and they were sold in the secondarymarket. This was the beginning of one of the world's first futures market. Trading in ricefutures engenderedmuch speculation,and it wasfrom this speculationthat Japanese technicalanalysiswas born. The most fa- mous trader in the rice futures market was Homma. Homma traded in the rice futures marketsin the 1700s.He discoveredthat although there was a link between the supply and demand of rice, the markets were alsostrongly influencedby the emotions of the traders. Because of this, there were times when the market perceiveda harvestas different from the actual.He reasonedthat studying the emotionsof the market could help in predicting prices. In other words, he understood that there was a differencebetween the value and the price of rice. This differencebe- tween price and value is as valid today with stocks,bonds, and curren- cies,as it was with rice centuriesago. In the materialI had translated,candlechartsare often calledSakata chartsin referenceto the port city of Sakata,where Homma lived. How- ever,basedon my research,it is unlikely that Homma usedcandlecharts. As will be seenlater, when I discussthe evolution of the candlecharts, it was more likely that candlechartswere developedin the early part of the Meiji period in japan (in the late 1800s). whether or not Homma invented charting is open to question. But determining whether one person, in this caseHomma, createdchartsor used them to trade is not too important. Thereis a tendencyin the West to be preoccupiedwith imposing authorship to one person. It is more likely that the candle charts we know today and all the techniquesas- sociatedwith them tended to be a processof cumulative authorship by severalpeople over many generations.Even if he did not invent candle charts, Homma understood that the psychologicalaspectof the market was criticalto his trading success. And it appearsthat the earliestforms of technical analysis in Japan dealt more with the psychology of the market rather than charts. In the book, TheFountainof GoId-The ThreeMonkeyRecordof Money, purportedly written by Homma, the author states: " After 60 years of working day and night I have gradually acquireda deep understanding of the movements of the rice market." The book then goes on to say: "when all are bearish, there is causefor prices to rise. when everyone is bullish there is causefor the price to fall." This phraseechoswhat is now calledcontrarianopinion, a tool important to so many traders.yet, TheFountainof Gold-The ThreeMonkeyRecordof Money, was written in 1755.It is amazingthat beforeAmerica was a nation, the Japanese were trading with contrarian opinion! The title had me perplexed for some
  • 23. The Basics time. I did not understand the referenceto the "three monkeys" in the title. Then in some of my translated material, it said something about comparing successfultrading to being like the three monkeys we all knew as children-see, hear, and speak no evil. Then it dawned on me; the title of the book, TheFountainof Gold-The ThreeMonkeyRecord ofMoney, meansthat for traders to get to their "fountains of gold," they should have the characteristicsof these three monkeys. Specifically: L. "See no evil"-when yolJ seea bullish (bearish)trend, do not get caught up in iU consider it an opportunity to sell (buy). In the Fountainof Gold, it states that there is always a rotation of Yang (bullishness) and Yin (bearishness).This means that within each bull market, there is a bear market, and within a bear market, there is a bull market. This view may explain why fapanesecandlesticktechniquesplace so much emphasis on reversal, rather than continuation, patterns. 2. "Hear no evil"-when vou hearbullish or bearishnews, don't trade on it. It may be safer to take a position after you determine how the market reacts to a news item rather than initiating a trade when the news is released.Bernard Baruch, the millionaire stock speculatorand presiden- tial advisor, statedthat what is important in market fluctuations "are not the eventsthemselves,but the human reactionsto theseevents." Exhibit 2.L showsthat how the market reactsto the news may be just asimpor- tant as the news itself. The Iraqi War started in the first few days of August 1990.Yet, Exhibit 2.Lshowsthat gold stalled at$425.This $425levelwas gold's high earlier in 1990.This failure to take out the prior high was in spite of the fact that there was a Mideast War. Gold's failure to rally on suPPosedly bullish news sent out volumes of information about the stateof the mar- ket. To wit, be careful of a market that fails to rally on bullish news. Note that after this failure at$425,gold lost its luster asprices returned to their pre-Mideast crisis price near $360within two months. Also be aware of what the Japanese refer to as "whispering tactics." This is what they call the spreading of false news to trick others in the market. Try to keep out of rumor buffeted markets. IsaacNewton once said, "I can calculatethe motion of heavenly bodies but not the madness of people." Why get involved with the madnessof people? 3. "Speak no evil"-don't speak to others about what you are going to do in the market. 15
  • 24. 16 Candles EXHIBIT 2.1. Observingthe Market's Reactionto FundamentalNews, Gold- December1990,Daily Has the following happenedto you? Basedon your analysis,you decide to buy into a market. You tell someoneelseof this decision, but they say somethingnegativeabout that market. Because there is always a degree of uncertainty, you get nervous and decidenot to buy. Then, of course, the market rallies. If you have carefully studied the market, it is safer not to speak to anyoneaboutwhat you plan on doing unlessyou believethey havebetter insight than you. Look only to the market to give you direction. In one of my favorite passagesinThe Fountainof Gold,it saysthat ". . . to learn about the market ask the market-only then canyou becomea di:testable market demon." Isn't that a wonderful phrase?Wouldn't you love to becomea detestable marketdemon? The colorful languageused by the Jap- aneseis just one reasontheir technicaltechniquesare so exciting. Let us turn our attention to Exhibit 2.2, which illustrates the path that ultimately led to the candlecharts. Evolution of the Candle Charts A. Stopping chart-Also referredto asa point, line, or starchart. This was the earliesttype of chart and was drawn by joining only closing
  • 25. (A) Stopping Charts(close) ,4. .f+ / v J t (B) PoleCharts (High-Low) (D) AnchorChart(High-Low-Close-Open) prices. Th"y were named stopping charts becausethat was where the prices stopped by the end of the session.Stopping charts were drawn with either diagonallines or horizontal lines connectingthe closes. B. Polechart-Its nameis derivedfrom the factthat the linesresemble poles. This chart added the extra information imparted by showing the rangebetweenthe high and the low of the session.Theselines show not only the direction of the move, but the extent of the move for each session. C. Bar chart-This is a combination of the stopping and pole charts. D. Anchor chart-Named as such becauseit looks like an anchor. Basedon legend, these charts originated in the Kyoho Era (from 1716) from the fact that the usual meetingplacefor rice traderswas port cities. The anchor chart was an important event in the evolution of charting. With this chart, the opening price was now added and createda chart with an open, high, low, and close.Just as important, and something unique to fapanesecharts, was that the relationship between the open and closewas pictorially displayed. The top and bottom of the anchor's verticalline are the high and low of that session.The horizontal line of the anchorline is the open. The arrow of the anchorline is the close.If the closeis higher than the open, the arrow points up; if the closeis lower, the arrow points down. (c) Bar Chart(High-Low-Close) (E) Candle Chart(High-Low-Close-Open) TheBasics 17 EXHIBIT 2.2. The Evolutionary Path to the Candlestick Charts ,f tf',fi H .,i t:l tT "T 'il H +{'{+t o * ' 4 :tr
  • 26. 18 C-andles E. Candle chart-The next improvement from the anchor charts was the candle chart. Although they are shrouded in mystery, the candles probably startedin the early part of the Meiji period (from 1868).As can be seen in Exhibit 2.28, candle lines were a refinement of the anchor chart. The use of black and white real bodies made analyzing the un- derlying supply and demand situation visually easierto determine than with the anchor charts. With the arrival of the candle charts, Japanesetechnical analysisflow- ered aspeople started thinking in terms of signalsand trading strategies. Patternswere developed and market prediction becamemore important. Trying to forecastthe market took on extra importance in the L870swhen the fapanesestock market opened. As canbe seenfrom Exhibit 2.2, bar chartswere one of the ancestors of the more evolved and productive candle charts. In essence,this means that since most of the West is still using bar charts, it is also using a less evolved form of charting than the Japaneseare with candle charts. CONSTRUCTION OF THE CANDLE LINE The first step in using the power of candlesis learning how to construct the basic candle line. Exhibits 2.3. and 2.4 show that the candle line consistsof a rectangular section and two thin lines above or below this section. We seewhy these are named candlestick charts; the individual lines often look like candleswith their wicks. The rectangular part of the candlestick line is called the real body.lt represents the range between the session'sopen and close.When the realbody is black(e.g., filled in), it showsthat the closeof the sessionwas lower than the open. If the real body is white (that is, empty), it means the close was higher than the oPen. White Real Body EXHIBIT 2.3. White RealBodv I Black Real Body EXHIBIT 2.4. BlackRealBody F.-==*
  • 27. TheBasics The thin lines above and below the real body are the shadows. The shadowsrepresentthe session'sprice eXtremes.The shadow abovethe real body is referred to as the upper shadow and the shadow under the realbody is the lower shadow.Accordingly,the peakof theupper shadow is the high of the sessionand the bottom of the lower shadow is the low of the session. Candle charts can be used throughout the trading spectrum, from daily, to weekly, and intra-day charting. For a daily chart, one would use the open, high, low, and closeof the session.For a weekly chart, the candlewould be composedof Monday's open, then the high and low of the week, and Friday's close.On an intra-daybasis,it would be the open, high, low, and closefor the chosentime period (i.e., hourly). Exhibit 2.3 shows a strong sessionin which the market opened near the low and closednear its high. We know that the closeis higher than the open becauseof the white real body. Exhibit 2.4 illustrates a long black candlestick.This is a bearish sessionin which the market opened near its high and closednear its low. The |apanesefocus on the relationship between the open and close. This makessense;probably the two most important pricesof the day are the open and close.It is thereforesurprising that American newspapers have openings for futures prices, but not for stocks.A member of the Nippon TechnicalAnalysts Associationtold me that he found it unusual that U.S. newspapersdo not have opening stock prices; the Japanese have the openings in their papers. He said that he did not know why the Americansdisregardthe openings. I would expectthat just asalmost all technicalsoftwarevendors now carry candle charts, so it may be that as candlesbecomemore popular in the equity market, newspapersmay, by popular request, carry stock openings. Until then, in order to obtain the data needed to draw the candles(the open, high, low, and close)you need to use a data vendor service.Theseservicesfurnish priceson disks or through modems. The data supplied from a data vendor are then transferredinto a technical analysis software package that will draw the candles based on these data. A noteof caution:Some data vendors who do not have the actual opening price of a stock default to the prior session'scloseas today's open. This, in my opinion, is not valid. You must have the true open to draw an accuratecandleline. Although an open on a stockwill usually not be much different from the prior close,there aresomecandlepatterns in which a higher or lower opening (comparedto the prior close)gives valuableinformation. A datavendor that includesactualopenson stocks is Dial Data (Brooklyn, NY). t9
  • 28. 20 REAL BODY AND SHADOWS While an individual candle usually should not be used alone to placea trade, the size and color of its real body and the length of its shadows can provide a wealth of information. Specifically,looking at a line's real body and shadows gives a senseof the supply and demand situation. This section will discuss this basic idea, and explain how to use real bodiesand shadowsto get cluesabout the market's underlying strength or weakness.By using the candlelines discussedbelow, you may be able to get an early and tentative indication of market direction. THE REAL BODY In ]apanesecharts, even an individual candle line has meaning, and one of the first clues about the vitality of the market is to look at the size and color of the real body. To the |apanese,the real body is the essenceof the price movement. This is a critical and powerful aspectof candlecharts; through the height and color of the real body, candle charts clearly and quickly display the relative posture of the bulls and the bears. This sectionwill be segmentedaccordingto the decreasingsizeof the real bodies. The first part of this section will consequently focus on long white and then long black real bodies. After these, attention is turned to candles with small real bodies called spinning tops. These diminutive real bodies display a market where the bulls and bears are in a tug of war. This sectionwill concludewith candlesthat have no realbodies. These candles have the same (or nearly the same) opening and closing. Such candles, called doji (pronounced d6-gee), reflect a market in a state of transition. Doji, asyou will seelater, can be an important market signal. Long White Real Bodies A long white real body is defined as a sessionthat opens at or near the low of session,and then closesat or near the session'shigh. The close should be much higher than the open. For example, if a stock opens at $40 and closes at $4ff/v it would not be a long white candle since the opening and closing range were relatively close.For a long white candle to have meaning, someJapanesecandlestick traders believe that the real body should be at least three times as long as the previous day's real body.
  • 29. The Basics 21 I , I tl I t , 'il"",' EXHIBIT 2.5. Long White at a Low PriceLevel Long White at a Low Price Level A single candleby itself is rarely sufficient reasonto forecastan imme- diate reversal.It could, however, be one clue that the prior trend may be changing. For instance, as shown in Exhibit 2.5, a long white real body at a low price range may be the first sign of a market bottom. A long white candle shows that the ability to rise is virtually unimpeded by the bears.The closerthe closeis to the high of the session,and the longer the white real body, the more important the candleline. Exhibit 2.6 shows that in late 991.,this stock was stabilizing near $5. The first sign that the bulls were attempting to take control was the unusually long white real body at 1. Note how this real body was ex- tended compared to the prior real bodies. However, an almost equally long, but black real body (for information on black real bodies, seepage 29), on the week after candle L showed that the bears still had enough force to offset the bulls' advance. In early 992, another unusually long white candle,shown at2, appeared.This white candleopenedon its low (sinceit does not have a lower shadow) and closedon its high (sinceit doesnot have an upper shadow). Such a candleis exceptionallystrong, notably when it is so elongatedas in candle 2. Candle 3 was another strongwhite candlethat propelled pricesto new multi-month highs. With the tall white candles L and 2 both appearing near $5, we can seethe significance of that $5support area.Consequently,when pricescorrected back to this level in fuly and August 1992,it is not surprising that the selloffstopped near $5. Long White Candle Confirms Support As shown in Exhibit 2.7, the tall white candlethat rebounds from support underscoresthe aggressiveness of the bulls. A long white candle that bouncesoff a support area such as a trendline, a moving average,or a. retracementlevel gives extra confirmation of that support.
  • 30. 22 Candles AURORA ELECTRIC - WEEKLY I 6 . U 15.5 t 5 . 0 1 4 . 5 t 4 . 0 t 3 . 5 13.0 12.5 L2.O 1 1 . 5 I 1 . 0 t 0 . 5 1 0 . 0 9 . 5 9 . 0 8 . 5 U . U 7 q 7 . O b . 5 b . u 5.0 4 . 5 1 5 . 0 t 5 . 5 t-5. .il u,[,1i"-r+,0[|u*'*"**'?*'rolro*'**ru+n t 4 . 5 1 4 . 0 13.5 13.0 12.5 L2.O t t . 5 t t . 0 i-u.5 10.0 9.5 s . 0 8.5 8.0 7 . 5 7.O 5.5 5 . 0 5.5 6 n 4 . 5 ' 9 1 '9? r L E IlAY JUN JUL 0cT NOU '93 T L H MetaStock by EQUTS Int'l EXHIBIT 2.6. Long white Candle at Low price, Aurora Electric-weekly I t l Prior lows assupport DGIIBIT 2.7. Long White Candle Confirms Support "'I Movingaverage
  • 31. TheBasics 23 GENLRE_ DAILY 130 123 i - o L1A 127 L26 LZ5 L?4 LZ3 122 L?I 120 I 1 5 118 LL7 i - r b LL4 113 LLz 1 1 1 LL0 109 108 LO7 oo,[o,oo *l*,.,ofo,, ,ilr, ,il[|il+' il*t, ' 130 L29 128 L?7 L?6 L25 L24 L23 122 L Z L 120 119 118 TL7 lt6 tt5 114 l t ? LLz 1 t l 110 t0s 108 102 '92 z3 14 ,93 t1 l8 OB MetaStock by EQUISInt'l EXHIBIT 2.8. Long White Candle Confirms Support, General Re-Daily In Exhibit 2.8, we seehow drawing a support line with a candlechart is done the sameway aswith a bar chart. In this case,we arelooking at a support line that is obtainedby connectingthe lows of the session(that is, by connectingthe bottom of the lower shadows).This upward sloping trendline was testednumerous times. In lateJanuary,a bouncefrom this support via a long white real body showed the eagerness of the bulls to buy near that support. Long White Body BreaksResistance Exhibit 2.9 displays how the market can prove its mettle by piercing a resistanceareawith a tall white real body. As shown in Exhibit 2.10,the highs at areasA and B discloseda resistanceareanear $44and $45.In lateNovember,an extendedwhite realbody gappedhigher on the oPen-
  • 32. 24 Candles EXHIBIT 2.9. Long White CandleBreaksResistance ing and closedat the session'shigh. This tall white candleconfirmed an important breakoutfrom the aforementionedresistanceband. Note how in early 1993the gap before this white candlebecamea support area.we will look at the importance of gaps as support when windows are dis- cussedin the next chapter. BANKAMERICA- DAILY 56.5 56.0 s.5 s.0 54.5 54.0 53.5 53.0 52.5 52.0 51.5 5t.0 s).5 s).0 49.5 .19.0 48.5 .18.0 47.5 47.9 46.5 46.O .15.5 45.0 44.5 11.O 43.5 43.0 42.5 42.O 41.5 .tl.0 .1u.5 56.5 56.0 5 5 . 5 55.0 54.5 54.0 53.5 53.0 52.5 52.O 5 t. 5 5 1 . 0 F N F 50.0 49.5 43.0 48.5 48.0 47.5 17.O 46.5 46.O 45.5 45.0 14.5 44.8 43.5 43.0 42.5 42.O 4 1 . 5 41. 0 40.5 '9. It [ts ,,,il,,*o'*ot'lnf ,q'1,,*lrl-,fl,,oo h-*** l-il +_gap I fl'1,p ,il' ','1,0-*-,$ro-l*oLlS t.ry *t L2 19 26 n a7 L4 ,93
  • 33. The Basics Long White Real Bodies as Support Exhibit 2.11brings out one of the more excitingusesof long white can- dles, specifically, that long white candles can become support areas. I have found this to be an excellent tool since it servesto alert traders to support zones that are not available with bar charts. The depth of the reaction should find support at either the middle of the long white real body or the bottom of the entire white candle, including the lower shadow. The Japaneseliterature saysthat a long white real body should be support in a rising market. However, basedon my experience,it can alsobe used as support in a falling market. The reasonthe market may fall back after an exceptionally tall white real body is that prices may becomeshort-term overbought (that is, they rallied too far too fast). In this scenario, the market may have to retrace some of the prior rally to relieve this overbought condition. In Exhibit 2.12, the huge white candle in early 1992propelled prices from $1012 to about $15. Almost a 50o/o rise in one week! After such a move, it was not surprising that the market had to consolidateits gains. Basedon the preceptthat a long white candleis support, the middle of the white real body (at the arrow), near $121/2, should then be monitored as support. The power of the market is well reflectedby the fact that for the rest of 1992,the market held above this support area. 25 r l ' l r 1,1 (1)50o/" within long white real body Support l 1 l (2) Bottomof long whitecandle's lower shadow EXHIBIT 2.11. Long White RealBodiesas Support Support
  • 34. 26 Candles CITICORP - WEEKLY n 27 26 z3 24 z3 22 2L 20 l9 ts L7 l b l5 14 t3 L2 1 l 10 B 7 *ilf*l**or*il+**,r*l-l ll**-- il,1+,,lillttlft*,, ,,,*,,nililfil *pnfrntryil f'o''f,,,,,-,+n{il{ 2g 27 25 25 24 23 22 2L 20 l9 18 L7 16 15 14 l3 LZ. il. 10 J I 7 ' g l J R S O N t] ,92 F t1 A II J J A S B N D ,93 EXHIBIT 2.12. The Middle of a Long l4lhite Candle as support, Citicorp-weekly Exhibit 2.13 illustrates how the lower end of tall white bodies L-4 becamesupport on corrections.Of interest is that the support line ob- tained by extending the low of candle 3 was broken in September 1992. Observe, however, that the sell-off stopped near the support area from the low of candle2. This chartalsoillustratesan important point. Candle- stick traders should wait, if possible, for the market to closeunder sup- port to confirm a break. In this example, we see in mid-1992 that the support level from the bottom of candle 3 was broken intra-weekly (see X on the chart), as was the support by the bottom of candle 4 (seeY). Because the weekll (i.e., the Friday)closeheld abovethesesupport areas, the support line was still in force. Noticein Exhibit 2.14how the low of the long white realbody in early April (at the arrow) was 109-22.This means that area should provide a base on sell-offs. In this exhibit we seethe importilrce of waiting for a closeunder a support areato confirm the breaking of support.
  • 35. TheBasics EXHIBIT 2.L3. Bottom of Tall White as Support, Dow fones-Weekly EXHIBIT 2.14. Bottom of Tall White Candle as Support with Bond Futures-D6ily
  • 36. 28 Candles A method you could use with this concept of tall white candlesas support is to buy on a correctionnear the midpoint of the white candle. Fromthat leveldown to the bottom of the long white candle(this includes the bottom of the lower shadow) should be support. If the bottom end of the support zone (that is, the lows of the tallwhite candle)is pene- trated on a close, then you should reconsider your long position. et times, these support areasare broken on an intra-sessionbasis,but as long as the support holds on the close,I still view it asvalid support. one of our institutional clients told me he found that, at times, after a tall white candle,the market corrects.I advisedhim that suchactionis not surprising since after such a candle, the market may be overbought and hence vulnerable to a setback.I then suggestedthe use of a long while candle as a support area in which he courd buy on a correction. Coincidentally, on November 23,at the time the trader and I were talking about this, the bond's first hour of trading had just ended. This first hour, as shown in area2 in Exhibit 2.1s, completeda tall white candle. since he tradedbonds, I informed the client that support should be from the halfway point of this white candle down to the bottom of the candle, including the lower shadow. I then pointed out that there was another long while candle from the preceding day's first hour of trading (see using the support Zone in a Tall white Candle December1993Bond
  • 37. TheBasics 29 candle 1). The bottom of that tall white candle (including the shadow) was successfullydefended as suPport with candle 2. Thus, there were two white candles (at L and 2) that reinforced the support near 14-16. Note how, after white real body 2, the market retraced about halfway into it before rallying. Long Black Real Body at High Price Area just as a long white candle could be an early signal that the market may be trying to build a bottom, so it is that a distinctively long black real body at a high price may be a tentative warning of a top. The long black real body should be significantly longer than the candlespreceding it. This is illustrated in Exhibit 2.16. Such a long black real body displays that the bears had grabbed control of the market. The longer the rally continued and the more overbought the market, the more reliable the cautionarysignal of this long black real body becomes. The long white candle (1) in Exhibit 2.17 echoesa vibrant market. However, therewere a few warnings that Home Depot was overheating. The first was that the relative strength index (RSI)was above70o/o. Such a high RSI figure is a clue that the market is overbought. Another sign that the bulls were losing their upside push was the seriesof small real bodiesfollowing the tall white candleat 1.Thesesmallrealbodiesshowed that the supply-demand situation was more in balance as comPared to tall white candle 1 (candle L showed that demand was overwhelming supply). Smallreal bodiesare discussedin more detail later in this chap- ter. Fallingblackrealbody at 2 showedthat the bearshad wrestedcontrol of this stock.Note how blackrealbody 2 was the longestblackrealbody since at least November 1992.This shouts out a warning that there is now something very different about the market, and that appropriate defensiveaction-such assellingcoveredcalls,or offsettingsomelongs- should be undertaken. For those who are familiar with all the candle patterns, note how the tall white candle at 1 and the black real body at rl'',, r ' l EXHIBIT 2.16. Long BlackRealBody at High PriceArea ./
  • 38. 30 Candles HOME DEPOT & 14 PERIOD RSI 75 IU 5t 50 19 18 17 16 {5 11 13 12 4L 4n t u 51 50 19 18 17 16 15 11 13 12 1t {0 '3223 0 07 r1 2128,$ ir l8 t5 EXHIBIT 2.17. LargeBlackCandleat High Priceand the RelativeStrengthIndex, Home Depot-Daily EXHIBIT 2.18. Long BlackCandleConfirms Resistance 2 formed a bearishtower top, so namedbecausethe two long candlesat 1 and 2look like towers. Long Black Confirms Resistance If, asshown in Exhibit 2.j.8,the market backsoff sharply from resistance through a long black candle, it is extra confirmation of the resistance area. This is becausesuch a candle means that either the bulls have Priorhighsas resistance
  • 39. TheBasics 31 EXHIBIT 2.L9. Long BlackCandleat Resistance, CashYen-Weekly retreatedor that the bearshavebecomeaggressive enoughto overwhelm the bulls. Either of thesescenariosis potentially bearish.In Exhibit 2.19, there is an evident resistancearea near 135yen. This is shown by the horizontal trendline. The first long black candle at the arrow stalled at this resistance.With the retreat from this resistancethrough this un- usually long black real body, there was a causefor caution. Two weeks later, the second,even longer black real body signified the capacityof the bearsto drag priceslower. Long Black Breaks Support As shown in Exhibit 2.20,the way the marketbreaksa support areamay indicatethe seriousness of the break. For instance,a move under a suP- port areaby way of a long blackcandleshould be viewed asa potentially morebearishscenariothan if the market closesunder a support areawith a short black candleor a white candle. A popular longer term moving averagemonitored by both Japanese and American stockmarket participantsis the 200day moving average. Exhibit 2.21-shows how this moving averagewas support throughout
  • 40. 32 Candles l l r l , ' , t l ' , EXHIBIT 2.20. Long BlackCandleBreaksSupport late 1992into January 1993.However, the first sign of a break of this support cameby way of long blackrealbody 1. Although this only broke the 200 day moving average line by a few cents, it was an early, but provisional, sign of trouble. Final proof of a decisivebreak of the support areacamewith long black candlestick2. AMGEN - DAILY 75 ,,**uiln'n'rPt'Tto*'nrf *l'n*cn- 200Day (2) Moving Average nln'r*or,l+ 75 70 55 50 55 50 45 40 35 7E 55 60 55 50 15 40 35 'gz NOU 0Ec '93 FEB IlAR EXHIBIT 2.21. Long BlackRealBody BreaksMoving Averagesupport, Amgen- Daily
  • 41. TheBasics 33 f ;"; EXHIBIT 2.22. Long Black Candle as Resistance Long Black as Resistance As a long white real body acts as a support area, so a long black real body should actasresistance(seeExhiblt2.22).In Exhibit 2.23,longblack real body L penetratedan uptrending support line. With the long black candle at 1 and the long black real body six weeks earlier (at X), there UPJOHN -WEEKLY 49 48 17 16 45 44 43 12 1L 40 5E' 37 36 35 34 3Z 5 t 19 4B 17 16 45 11 .13 42 41 40 39 3S v % 35 34 33 { t l n 31 30 ,91 JUNJUL AUG SEPOCTNOU OEC,92 FEB IIARAPRNAY JIJNJI.[. AIJ6SEPOET fiuNl (x) (1) fiil r+l l 1 ,-d'*'f EXHIBIT 2.23. Long BlackCandleasResistance, Upjohn-Weekly
  • 42. 34 Candles was now a resistance zone that could be used to exit longs or to go short, on a bounceto that resistance. Exhibit 2.24 displaysa price explosionvia a long white candlein late 1991'. Using the theory of long candles,let us seehow one could have traded this market. A long white candle gives us a support area at 50o/o within its real body. Consequently,a pullback to near the 50o/o retrace- ment of the long white could be used asan earlybuying zone. This could have been at areas1 through 4. Now, we turn our attention to a price target. Notice the exceptionallybearish long black real body from -sup- tember 1991, (at the arrow). As discussedabove,we would expecta raliy to stall as it approachesthe top of this black candle.Although the bulls were finally able to gather enough force to breach this resistanceof the long black candle, it took them over a year to accomplishthis. Thus, buying on a pullback into the long white with a minimum target to september's long black real body could have been an effectivetrading strategy. AMEX_ WEEKLY 30.0 29.5 29.o 28.5 28.0 27.5 27.O 26.5 26.0 25.5 25.0 24.5 24.0 ?3.5 23.O 2?.5 22.O 21. 5 21.0 zu.a rl^ |l? tfl+t1tfl- 30.0 ? A F 29.0 28.5 28.0 27.8 z t - u 26.3 ?6.0 25.5 % . 0 24.5 24.O 23.5 23.CI 22.5 22.O 21.5 2L.O 20.0 t 5 . 5 ls.0 18.5 18.0 zu,5 20.o 19.5 t s . 0 rB.5 LB.0 ' 9 1 ,gz EXHIBIT 2.24. Long Black Candle as Resistance, Amex-Weekly J
  • 43. BRISTOLMYERS- DAILY 72 a l . L 70 59 bu 67 bb 65 61 63 62 6L 50 5S 5U 57 56 55 54 53 72 7L 7E 53 68 67 66 65 61 63 62 bt- 60 53 58 57 56 55 54 53 ,92 NOU OEE ,93 FEB IlAR APR The Basics Size, Frequency, and Color of Real Bodies The tone of the market can be gauged by comparing the relative height, frequency, and color of a group of candle lines. The first sign of trouble in Exhibit 2.25camewith the long black candle at L. Note how this is the longest black candle in some time. Then, an aPPearance of an elongated black candle at 2 was an evident warning sign of trouble. The price de- scent continued until February's tall white candle at 3 arose. This was the loftiest white real body in many months, and relayed that the bulls had enteredthe market in force. Observehow the midpoint of February's white real body becamea basefor a minor rally. In the boxed section in Exhibit 2.26, we see a period in which the market was trading laterally. With a bar chart, it would be difficult to glean information about the relative strength of the bulls or the bears in suchan environment. With the candles,however, we cando this. In this trading range environment, we can seethat there were eight black real MetaStockbYEQUIS Int'l EXHIBIT 2.25. Slzeand Color of RealBodies,BristolMyers-Daily 35 )
  • 44. 36 Candles EXHIBIT 2.26. Relativesize, Frequency,and Color of RealBodies,August 1993 Crude Oil bodiesand only four white candles.Also, the blackrealbodieswere taller than the white ones. With more and larger black real bodies than white realbodies,the candlestell us that the bearswere taking a more aggres- sive stancethan were the bulls. ClassicWestern technicaltheory stated that after a congestionband, the market's trend should have resumedin the same direction that it had before the congestionband. In this ex- ample, the precedingtrend was down. Thus, the bearishcandle action during the lateral range reinforced the classicwestern theory and in- creasedthe odds of a continuation of the precedingdowntrend. In the next section,using information on how the open comparesto the closewill be discussed.But before that, I will discussnew ways of interpreting candle patterns. This methodology will help illuminate the theory and marketactionbehind eachcandlepattern. Eachcandlepattern in this book will be illustrated four ways (refer to Exhibit 2.22). Exhibit 2.27 (B) The blended candle-If the candle pattern has more than one candleline, you cancombinethem to make a singlecandleline, which I call ablendedcandle. This method is sometimesused in the ]ap- anesecandlestickliterature to help clarify whether a pattern is bullish or bearish.The blended candle is an individual line that is a combination of the open, high, low, and closeof all the candle lines in the pattern.
  • 45. TheBasics 37 I c o 7 HighofthePattern F--------- "1. Lowofthe pattern (A) CandlePattern TI" "_f""" (c) AnchorChart (B) Blended Candle EXHIBIT 2.27. CandlePatternAnalysis As shown in Exhibit 2.27(B), the blended candleis drawn using a four- stepprocess: 1. Use the open of the first sessionof the candlepattern as the open of the blended candle. 2. Use the high of the candle pattern (in other words, the top of the highest upper shadow) as the high of the blended candle. 3. Use the low of all the sessionsof that pattern (i.e., the bottom of the lowest lower shadow) asthe low of the blended candle. 4. Use the closeof the last sessionof the candle pattern as the closeof the blended candle. Basedon the insight offered by the blended candle line in Exhibit 2.27,we can deducethat the two-candlecombinationin Exhibit 2.27(A) is a bearishcombination. This is becausethe blended candle shows the bearish aspectsof a long uPPer shadow and small real body near the bottom of the range. Exhibit 2.27(C) Anchor charts-Those who draw the candlechartsby hand and are tracking many markets or are restricted in time may find this task to be burdensome.One way to circumventthis (besidesbuying software)is to consider using anchor lines instead of candlelines. The anchor chart as previously discussed,is composed of the open, high, low, and close.If the anchor is pointing uP, it means that the closeis higher than the oPen (with the arrow part of the anchor rePresentingthe close).An anchor pointing down meansthat the closeis lower than the oPen. Although the anchorchart is lessvisual than the candlechart, it pro- vides the sameinformation and is faster to draw. The disadvantageto the anchor chart is that you don't have the quick color clue, as you do (D) Directional Pattern Analysis
  • 46. 38 Candles with the candle's white and black real bodies. But you can draw up sessionsin red and down sessionsin black (remember,however, that unlessyou have a color printer, all the anchor lines will be black when a hard copy is printed). Exhibit 2.27(D) Directionalpattern Analysis-To clarify the market,s path that unfolds during the candle pattern, I will draw arrows reflecting the market'sbasicintra-sessionaction.I call thisdirectional patternanalysii. The path shown by the market's actionin the directionalpattern anaiysis' canbe used as a rough method to gaugethe overall price action during the session.Although the arrow in the directionalpattern analysiswill show the path taken by the market during the sessfon,it will not show the order of when thesepriceswhere touched. For example,basedon the relationshipof the real body and shadows of the first white candlein Exhibit 2.27(A), we know that, at sometime during the session,pricesmoved under the opening price. However, we do not know when the price moved under the open. Atrhile the arrow in Exhibit 2.27(D) may make it appearthat the market immediatelvmoved lower after the opening, it may not have unfolded that way. The market insteadmay haverallied after the open and later in the sessionfell under the opening price. Thus, it is important to keep in mind that the direc- tional pattern analysisshould be thought of as a visual clue about the relative price action of the open, high, low, and closecomparedto one another. However, it doesnot tell us the sequenceof that price action. Opening Comparedto Prior Real Body A disadvantageof candlechartsis that they requirethe closeto complete the candleline. Therearesomeways around this limitation. One t,.thod is to go to a shorter time. In other words, if you are looking at a daily chart,you cansometimesget a signalon the hourly chartbeforethe close of the daily session.Another mechanismto bypasi waiting for the close, and the one I will focus on here, is comparing the opening to the prior real body. Exhibit 2.28 (A) illustratesthat if the opening is under the midpoint of the previous white real body, it could be a bearish scenario. ^Con- versely,if the next day's opening is abovethe blackbody's midpoint, as shown in Exhibit 2.28 (B), it courd be viewed ur u poiitive sign. This concept might be useful for those who are more aggressive"r,d ,irk- orientedand would want to buy or sellon an openingratherthan waiting for a close. This techniqueis more important for stocksthan for futures. This is because the futures market's higher volatility makesit more likely for the
  • 47. h TheBasics 39 EXHIBIT 2.28. (A) The TraditionalCandleLine or Pattern EXHIBIT 2.28. (B) Opening Comparedto Prior RealBody l l I1 1 / " price to open away from the prior close (remember that for prices to open above or below the prior real body's midpoint, it has to open away from the prior close). However, for a stock, such an occurrence is rarer, and as a consequence more significant. The chart of Manville (Exhibit 2.29)gave three signalsthat it was in ffouble in mid-1992.Firstwas the long upper shadowcandleat the arrow (shadowsare discussedin detail in the next sectionof this chapter).This showed the market rejected the $11 zone. The next signal was when Manville opened under the center of the prior white real body. Final bearishconfirmation camethe following week when the market gapped lower. In Exhibit2.30,inthe sessionmarkedby the arrow, the marketopened abovethe midpoint of the prior black real body. This positive develop-
  • 48. 40 C-andles +rI|,iliil+ l'- .o- UPPer shadow ,ttl',i*f,[t*' MANVILLE - WEEKLY t n F 10.0 s.5 s.0 9.5 8.0 7.5 10.5 10.0 9.5 9.0 s.5 7 n 5 . 5 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 ' g l N 0 '92 F 11 A f1 J J A s o N o ,93 F tl A fl J EXHIBIT 2.29. Open Under the Center of Prior White RealBody, Manville-Weeklv ment was reinforced by the white candle's high volume activity. This volume showed the pressureof the buying force. Spinning Tops we have seenthe power inherent in tall white or black real bodies. A tall white body reflectsa strong sessionin which the bulls arein control, whereasa long blackrealbody meansthat the bearsarein charge.Now, what would it mean if, instead of tall real bodies, there were small real bodies?This would tell us that the bulls and bears are in a tug of war and that there is more of a balancebetween supply and demand. Such small real bodies, called spinning tops, tell us that the power to move up or down is lacking, or asthe ]apanesephraseit, the "market is losing its breath." As shown in Exhibit 2.3L, these are spinning tops even if the lower and/or uPPershadowsarelarge.It is the diminutive sizeof the realbo$r
  • 49. The Basics 41, RUBBERMAID - DAILY 35.0 34.5 34.0 ? 2 F 33.0 32.5 5 t - u 3r.5 3t.0 30.5 30.0 2S.5 23.0 28.5 35.0 34.5 34.0 32.5 5 Z . U 3 t .5 ? 1 n 30.5 30.0 29.5 ? q n 28.5 ,E3 F t o t5 L2 EXHIBIT 2.30. Open Above the Centerof a BlackRealBody, Rubbermaid-Daily that defines a spinning top. A spinning toP is a warning sign that the market is losing its momentum. For instance,if the market is at or near a new high-especially after a steepadvance-the emergenceof a spin- ning top could be a signal that the bulls are having trouble in continuing their ascent.This could be a cautionary signal that the prior move is stalling. In Exhibit 2.32, the strong, long white real bodies at the end of July left no doubt about who had control of this market-the bulls. But the two spinning tops after theselong white real bodies sent out a warning Realbodycan be blackor white il EXHIBIT 2.31. Spinning ToPs
  • 50. 42 Candles EXHIBIT 2.32. Spinning Tops, Dow |ones-Daily that the bulls were unable to maintain the momentum of their advance. The arrival of the spinning tops showed that the market was losing its vitality. The black candles after the spinning top added more reason to suspecta turn. Accumulation and Distribution One of the most powerful and important aspectsof candlechartsis their ability to meld themselveswith any other form of technical analysis. Let us, for example,uncover how one candle (the spinning top), combined with volume, can provide critical information about the inner workings of the market. Two key conceptsrelating volume to price action are those of accu- mulation and distribution. Accumulation occurs when, at a low price level, there is a high volume sessionwith stagnant prices. The high vol- ume relays that the bears are attacking full force, throwing all their re-
  • 51. sourcesand ammunition into the fray. But the stagnantprices during the sessionshow that the bearsare unable to drag down prices.All that the bearshave tried to sell has been accumulatedby the bulls. After such a scenario,the bears may either run out of ammunition of just give up. The consequence of either of theseis a rally. Distribution is the oppositeof accumulation.Distribution occurswhen, at a high price level, there is heavy volume but virtually frozen prices. What is happening in such an environment is that the "smart" money is thought to be distributing their supply to meet all the buying that is entering the market. With distribution, the sellers are offering enough supply to meet all the buyer's demand, thus keeping prices in check. Distribution should therefore be viewed as a topping scenario. Note that as part of the definition for either accumulation or distri- bution, there must be little price movement. A spinning top reflects a sessionin which there is little price action (as defined by the difference betweenthe open and the close).So,by combiningvolume with spinning tops, we can determine when there is accumulation or distribution. TheBasics 43 EXHIBIT 2.33. Spinning ToPsand Accumulation, April 1993Crude Oil- Daily
  • 52. 44 Exhibit2.33showsthat a spinning top candlestickemergedon January 12.Note alsothe heavy volume of that session.As describeabove,stag- nant prices and high volume at a low price level are classicsigns of accumulation.The high-volume spinning top in this exampleshowsthat the selling Pressurewas easily absorbed.This positive sign was further reinforcedby the fact that this spinning top sessionmade a new low for the move, yet the bearswere unable to maintain thesenew lows. In Exhibit 2.34, June'stall white candle sessionwas also a high-vol- ume session.This was a very bullish developmentinsofar asthe market moved up sharply with strong buying interest (as gauged by the high volume). However, what occurredin the next sessionwas causefor con- cern. In that session,a small real body (i.e., a spinning top) emerged. The volume on the spinning top session(circledon the chart) was not as extremeas it was the prior day. Yet, looking back at the volume at the bottom of the chart, we see that it was nonethelessa very high- volume sessioncomparedto the prior periods. Consequently,there was a high-volume spinning top session.rvhat does that tell us? The high volume reflects a market in which the bulls came out in force, but the smallrealbody-the spinning top-means that the bearswere aggressive enough to almost stalematethe bull's advance.This action was a classic sign of distribution. The small real bodies over the next few sessions EXHIBIT 2.34. spinning Top and Distribution september 1991silver-Daily
  • 53. TheBasics 45 continued to echo the inability of the bulls to propel this market. Note how the longestreal bodies following the spinning top were black. This showed that the bearshad gained a foothold on the market. Doii One of the more important individual candlestick lines is the doji. As shown in Exhibit 2.35, a doji sessionhas a horizontal line instead of a real body. This is becausea doji is formed when the session'sopen and closeare the same(or almost the same).If the market is trading laterallv, a doji is neutral. In essencethe doji is echoing, on a micro scale,the indecision reflected on a more macro scaleby the market's sideways action. However, a doji that emergesafter the mature part of an uptrend or sell-off has a gteater chance of a market turn. At such a time, the Japanese say that a doji provides "a hint of tops and bottoms." One should be especially cautious about a doji that arisesafter a tall white candle which in turn aPPearsafter a significant uptrend. This is true whether the doji is within the prior long white real body or above it. Such action representsa disparity about the stateof the market. Spe- cifical$, the rally and tall white candles during such a rally tell us that the bulls are still in charge. But a doji means that the bulls are failing to sustainthe upside drive. This is shown in Exhibit 2.36. How do you decide whether a near doji day (i.e., where the open and closearevery close,but not exact)should be considereda doji?One method is to look at a near doji day and compareit to recent action. If there is a seriesof very small real bodies,I would not view the near dOji day assignificantsinceso many other recentperiodshad smallreal bod- ies or doji. (Other methods are coveredin my first book). As mentioned before, a doji is meaningful when it arises after a tall white candle during an uptrend. In this scenario,the market is consid- I I '{l+I l,uu,n r'il* " r,il. Examplesof Doii EXHIBIT 2.3s. Doii t l EXHIBIT 2.35. Doji After a Tall White RealBody
  • 54. 46 f ; t r I ' l I EXHIBIT 2.37. Doii asResistance I eredby the Japanese to be "tired." Also, as shown in Exhibit2.37, the top of a doji session(that is, the top of the upper shadow) often repre- sentsresistance.However, if the highs of the doji sessionare exceeded, then the market's uptrend should continue. This is discussedin more detailbelow. A common mistake among those who use canctesis to use a doji as an outright buy or sell signal. This is not correct.The doji indicates,as the japanesesay, "a crossroads betweenthe bulls and the bears." While the doji can mean the market may reverseits prior trend, tradersshould view the doji as echoing a market in transition rather than being an outright reversal pattern. Basedon this, traders should wait until the next sessionor two after the doji to show them which way the market will move. If there is a doji during a rally, and if the market continues strong afterthis doji, it is a bullish indication sincethe markethasresolveditself from the stateof transition (asshown by the doji) to its new trend-up. Thus, while a doji that appearsafter a rally could be an indication of a reversal(sincethe market is at a crossroads), it is bestto wait for bearish confirmationover the next day or two to get a top reversalconfirmation. For thosewho sellon a doji, the doji should actasresistance(seeExhibit 2.37).If the market closesabovethe high of the doji, the japanesesay the market has become "refreshed." Basedon this, a buy stop should be placedabovethe high of the doji. The oppositewould be true with a doji in a downtrend. To wit, a doji in a downtrend showsthat the market is at a point of indecision, and a white candle after such a doji shows that the market has resolveditself to the bull side. A buy basedon the doji after a downtrend should have a sell stop under the doji's low (in- cluding the lower shadow). This is becausesuch a scenariois viewed as a bearishcontinuation signal. one of the most fascinating aspectsabout candle charts is that, in spite of their underlying simplicity, they provide so much valuable in- formation about the state of the market. For example,what is more il- il
  • 55. TheBasics 47 ,,+Tr 0"" I I doji'---> f doli--'-----+f , l t l l , ' (A) (B) EXHIBIT 2.38. Doji After Extended Move ooii----- -l- (c) lustrative of a market in balance than a doji? That simple, individual candleline relayshow a market is in a stateof balancebetweenthe bulls and bears.As a result, the market may be at a transition point. All this information in one candleline! An important aspectabout doji (the plural of doji is also doji) is that traders should look at where the doji appearsin a trend. Exhibit 2.38 showsa doji in relationto the trend. As in Exhibit 2.38(A),the appearance of a doji after a steep advance or in an overbought market could be a top. However, as shown in Exhibit 2.38(8),if the market just startedto rise, it indicatesthere is less of a chancethat the market is at a top. In Exhibit 2.38(C)we seehow the emergenceof a doji after a precipitous declinecould mean a bottom. Exhibit 2.38(D)displaysa market that has just begunto fall. In this scenario,pricesmay continuetheir descenteven after a doji. The main conceptbehind Exhibit 2.38 is that doji become more important asa reversal signal the more overbought or oversold the market. In Exhibit 2.39,we noticearally that startedin earlyNovemberstalled aftertwo doji following a tall white candle.The appearance of thesedoji told of a market in which the bulls and bears were in equilibrium. This was very different from the prior session when the tall white candle displayed avibrant and healthy market in which the bulls were in control. These doji were showing, as the fapanesewould phrase it, that "the market is separatingfrom its trend." As discussedbefore,doji becomeresistance. In this chart,thereis also a long black real body candle (at the arrow) a few days after the doji. This black real body should also be resistance.With this in mind, the doji sessionsand the long black real body provided a resistancezone in (D)
  • 56. 48 &ndIes oo,iloil GAP_ DAILY '92 09 15 23 D 0Z 11 2t 28'93 tl t8 25 t 08 16 22 08 7 7 F . 32.0 7( tr, ? 6 6 ? 4 q ? 4 n 9 r n ? t 6 J T .U ? N F 30.0 ) q 6 38.0 77 tr, 2 7 n ? ( 6 JD, U ? q 6 ? E N ? 4 6 ? ? 6 < < t l ?1 tr J L r J a f | | n i n J I . U ? n 6 30.0 EXHIBIT 2.39. Doji After a Tall White Candle, Gap-Daily the $37to $38area. It was within here that the market failed during the early 1993rally. The arrow in Exhibit 2.40points to a doji sessionin which the open, low, and closeare at the bottom end of the session'srange. This doji is known as a gravestonedoji. A gravestonedoji looks like a wooden me- morial used in Buddhist funeralsthat is placedat a gravestone.It is said that thosewho buy at a high price level after this doji will die and become ghosts.(Thosefamiliar with candlepatternswill note how this doji was part of a classicevening doji star pattern [this pattern is discussedin Chapter3l). Exhibit 2.41 shows how the small real bodies at 1 and the doji at 2 warned that the market was losing its upside drive. After trading in a lateralrange for a few weeks, prices ascendedto new highs in late ]an- uary. However, there were two cluesthat the rally might not be sustain- able.The first was the doji at 3. This showed that, although the market had reachednew highs, the upside drive had stalled.Another clue was
  • 57. TheBasics 49 EXHIBIT 2.40. GravestoneDoji August 1993Natural Gas-Intra-Day provided by the rate of change(ROC)oscillator.This oscillatorcompares today's closingprice to that of ten sessionsago. For this example, I show the ten day ROC. This comparestoday's closeto that of ten days ago. With a healthy market, traders would like to seean increasingROC oscillator.This reflectsthat the market'supside momentum is growing as prices are ascending.However, note how at doji 2, Dell touched a new high, yet the ROC oscillator was at a lower reading than it was at the prior highs in December.This underscoresa slackeningof the upside drive. Thus, the ROC oscillator helped reinforce the bearish implication of doji 2. As further confirmation of a top, there was the long black candle on the day after doji 3. A few days after this black candle, the ROC oscillatorfell under 0 (sometechniciansview that as a time to sell).This chartis an exampleof how easyit is to combinethe candleswith Western technicaltools.
  • 58. 50 Candles EXHIBIT 2.41. Doji and Momentum, Dell-Daily SHADOWS While the real body is often considered the most important segment of the candle, there is also substantial information to be gleaned from the length and position of the shadows. Thus, the location and the size of the shadow should also be considered when analyzing the psychology behind the market. A tall upper shadow is especiallyimportant when it appearsat a high price level, at a resistancearea, or when the market is overbought. This is becausesuch a candle line would hint that there is either heavy supply entering at higher prices or an evaporation of buying. In either case(see Exhibit 2.42),a long upper shadow could be a bearish development. A long lower shadow candle that bouncesfrom a support area,or appears in an oversold market, could be an important clue that the bearsarelosing control. DELL& 1OPERIOD ROC 02123r33 0 -25 {9 {8 17 15 15 11 4? 12 4L {0 <K 37 36 ?E 31 JL -Ff 'T{lu,*o*hl;+T "*il'. lF ' '1, .'; 'Totrrrril+rtT 19 18 17 16 15 11 13 12 4L 10 ?q JU 37 36 ?6 31 JJ 37 '92 2l 2g '93 11 t8 tt OB t5 22
  • 59. TheBasics 51 TI l l Bearish-Long Upper Shadows Bulllish-Lono Lower Shadoils EXHIBIT 2.42. Long Shadows In Exhibit 2.43,in early L992there was a hint of trouble with the doji following the tall white candle. Rememberingthe conceptthat the doji sessionshould be resistance,the market stalled at the doji's high over the next two weeks.The two candlesafter the doji had long upper shad- ows. Theseshadowsdisplayedthat therewas either very aggressive sell- ing nearthe 109level,or that buying quickly evaporatednearthesehighs. In either case,these long lower shadows showed a dampening of the rallying strength. Further evidence of the importance of this resistance was the failure there in mid-1992. Exhibit 2.M displaysthat candlesL, 2, and 3 rebounded from near 59Cvia long lower shadows. These long lower shadows reflected the solidity of the support and the eagernessof the buying. Also important was the length of the basethat had been built. For almost two months, EXHIBIT 2.43. Long Upper Shadows Confirm Resistance,Notionnel Bond-Weekly
  • 60. 52 Candles EXHIBIT 2.44. Long Lower Shadows Confirm Support, fune 1993DeutscheMark- Daily the bearstried to break pricesunder 59cand they failed. In general,the longer the base, the more solid the scaffolding on which a rally can be built. A popular moving averageamong futures traders is the 65-day mov- ing average. This line often swerves as support or resistance. For ex- ample, note how in Exhibit 2.45 that it was support in early November and again in early |anuary. The test of this support in early fanuary via long lower shadows, shows how strongly and quickly the market sprang from there. For those who are familiar with candles, the first long lo*", shadow candle is a hammer. Hammers will be explained in the next chapter. High-Wave Candles A candlewith a long upper and lower shadowsis calledahigh-wnae candle (shown in Exhibit 2.46).It showsthat the market is in a standoffbetween the bulls and bears. when a high-wave emerges after a downtrend or uptrend, the |apanesesaythat the market has lost its senseof direction. This lack of market orientation meansthat the prior trend is in jeopardy.
  • 61. TheBasics 53 EXHIBIT 2.45. Long Lower ShadowsConfirm Support, March 1993S & P Futures- Daily A doji that has long upper and lower shadows is either called a high- wave doji or a long-leggeddoji. In Exhibit 2.47, a seriesof high-wave candlesare displayed at 1',2, and 3. The high-wave candle at L hinted that the bulls and bearswere at a standoff.The actionthat precededcandlet had a bearishbias.Thus, with the appearanceof high-wave candle 1, the market had sent out a clue that the trend was probably in the processof change. This outlook was reinforced by the dual white candles after high-wave candle 1. The market ascendedfrom candle L until it got to another high-wave candle (at 2). From there, prices declined sharply in the next sessionvia a long blackreal body. However, at the sessionafter this long black real body, a candle with an extended lower shadow (at X) showed that the lows I EXHIBIT 2.45. High-Wave Candles
  • 62. 54 Candles MetaStock by EQUISInt'l EXHIBIT 2.47. High-Wave Candles,December1993Crude Oil from the prior week had become an attractive buying area. As prices ascendedfrom candleX, a whisper of trouble emergedvia the high-wave candleat 3. Two days later the long black candle showed that the bears had enteredthe market in force, and asa result, increasedthe likelihood that the high-wave candleat 3 was a top reversal. CRUDE OIL- DEC. 1993 1 9 . 5 19. 5 19. 0 19, 0 1 0 6 lB.5 lB,0 rB. 0 17,5 t7.5 lz.0 li.0 l / f l b , 3 16. 5 33 3 0 s07 l 3 20 lt IB ?5 OB 15
  • 63. CHAPTER 3 THE PATTERNS H E 6 i f 6 - - . 3 t Z E 6 D "He WhoseRanksare Unitedin PurposeWiIl BeVictoious" Dince the publication of my first book, I have had new ]apanesematerial translated,have met new Japanese traders,and have continued my dia- logueswith those japanesetraders who have previously helped me. In addition, I have alsohad anotherthree yearsof hands-onexperience.As a result, I have gleanednew insights and conceptsthat will be conveyed to you in this chapter. This chapter will not be a referenceto all the patterns that are in my first book. Instead, my aim here is twofold. For those new to candles, this chapter will reveal how some of the more common and important candlepatternscanprovide powerful insightsinto your market analysis. For those already knowledgeable about the candles,you will discover new refinementsand trading techniques.It is especiallyimportant to read the detailed descriptionsof the charts. It is in these that you will most easilyseesomeof the new refinementsof candletheory, aswell assome new concepts. As one of the Japanese booksI had translatedstated,"the psychology of the market participant, the supply and demand equation, and the relative strengths of the buyers and sellersare all reflectedin the one candlestickor in a combination of candlesticks."l In this chapter, I will describethe many usesand trading insights provided by individual can- dle lines and candle patterns based on two or more candle lines. The organization of this chapter is based on the number of lines that form the pattern. Consequently,this chapter's first sectionwill focus on in- dividual candle lines, such as the hammer and shooting star. The next sectionwill delve into candle patterns comprised of two candle lines. 55
  • 64. 56 Theseinclude the dark cloud cover and two gapping black candles.The final sectionin this chapter will addressthose candle patterns, such as the evening star and record sessions,which have three or more candle lines. SINGLE CANDLE LINES In Chapter 2, I detailed how the length of the shadows can relay infor- mation about the resiliencyof the bulls or the bears.For example,a long upper shadow echoesthe ability of the bears to regain control of the market during a rally. A long lower shadow pictorially reflects the bulls' ability to rally the market after the market's new sessionlows havebeen made. In this section,the single candle lines I will be describing(the ham- mer, hanging man line, and the shooting star) either have a long upper or lower shadow. But, becausethey alsopossessthe important aspectof having a small real body near the top or bottom of the trading range, these candles lines take on increasedimportance when using candle charts. The Hammer As shown by Exhibit 3.1-,the hammer, with its long lower shadow and a closenear or at the high, is easily understood to be a bullish signal. Theterm "hammer" derivesfrom the factthat the marketis "hammering out a base," or that a bottom is so solid that it does not break, even when a hammer knocks away at it. , , 1 V EXHIBIT 3.L. The Hammer
  • 65. ThePatterns An aspectof the hammer is that it must appear after a significant downturn or in an oversold market to have significance.The hammer is a reversalindicator, and as such, should have a downtrend to reverse. A hammer that appearsafter a fall of, say, two or three days is usually not important. Sincethe hammer is most useful after a significant down- turn, it should be noted that there may be selling on a rally from the hammer. As such, the first bounce from the hammer may fail and the market may return to test the hammer's support. Consequently,trading with the appearanceof a hammer dependson a trader's aggressiveness and risk adversity. Sometradersmay decideto buy immediately after the hammer appearsin casethe market does not pull back to retest the hammer. Sometradersmay decideto wait to see if the market returns to the hammer, and if so, will buy on that return move. If the market successfullyteststhe hammer's support area,there is then a more solid support areaand abetterchancefor arally. A method that I sometimesrecommend to our clients is to lightly test the waters from the long side after a hammer, and then add the remainder of the long position after (and if) there is a successfultest of the hammer. Whichever methodology is used, a stop (basedon the close)could be placedunder the lows of the hammer. Exhibit 3.2 displays a classichammer in that the extremelength of the lower shadow reflectshow aggressivelythe bulls were ableto propel pricesoff the lows of the session.The bounce from this hammer stalled during the next few sessions.But the pullback held the hammer's sup- port. This action helped enlarge the base upon which to build a more substantialrally. A trading tool that I find useful with candlesis a Western technique calleda spring.As shown in Exhibit 3.3, a spring occurswhen the bears are unable to hold prices under a broken support area. Becausesuch action proves that the bears were unable to grab control of the market when they had their chance, it should be viewed as a bullish develop- ment. The oppositeof a spring is an upthrust.An upthrust occurswhen the market makesa new high, but then fails to hold that high. Upthrusts will be addressedin the section titled "The Shooting Star" later in this chapter.(Springsand upthrusts are describedin detail in my first book.) An ancient oriental book on military tactics referred to gaining an advantageover the enemy by acting as a "moving shadow." This term, asusedby the warrior who wrote that book, meansthat when you cannot seethe stateof your opponent, you pretend to make a powerful attack to uncoverthe intention of the enemy.This concept,asrelatedto trading, is one of the reasonsa spring is so important. Probesof support or resistanceareasare attempted throughout the marketsby large-scaletraders. They want to discover how the market 57
  • 66. 58 Candles AMGEN_ DAILY 7g 78 )7 7S 7q 71 1 a I J 72 7l 70 68 67 b b 65 61 63 bt 6l 60 59 5B 57 56 [ilrItil'+rIr-i *r,n+r1n*ilta4ill1rt,*,,,,0,*tn* +rl-+++l*oril Hammer | '"'t 79 7B 77 76 75 71 73 72 7l 70 6S 68 67 66 65 61 63 62 6l 60 59 5B 57 56 '92 S 08 t4 2t 28 0 t2 19 26 N 09 16 23 D MetaStock byEQUISInt'l EXHIBIT 3.2. Hammer as Support, Amgen-Daily will react once a support or resistancearea is pierced. In effect, these traders act like the aforementioned "moving shadow," testing the bat- tlefield by entering a large order to try and break support (or resistance). For example, if a large-scaletrader placesa sell order as the market gets near support, their sell order may be enough to drag prices under the support area.Now, this trader, as a "moving shadow,,, will now learn about the underlying strength of the market. If the market fails to hold under a broken support area and forms a spring, these "moving shad- ows," (i.e., the sellerswho were attempting to probe the market), now have learned about the tenacity of the bulls and as a result may decide to cover their shorts. " , , " " , , " ' , , " " Suppod _ EXHIBIT 3.3. Spring Sprins
  • 67. ThePatterns 59 EXHIBIT 3.4. Hammer and a Spring, Gold-Weekly In Exhibit 3.4, we seeone of the more powerful combinationsof East- ern and Western technicals-a hammer and a spring. The 1993low was formed by a hammer. This hammer was also a spring since the low of the hammer's lower shadow stightly punctured a support zone, but sprangback above this broken support line. Also of interest in this chart is that the high made near $360in mid-1992rwasformed by a doji follow- ing a tall white candle. The Hanging Man As shown in Exhibit 3.5, a hanging man has a very long lower shadow, a small real body (white or black) near the upper end of the trading range and little or no upper shadow. This is the same shape as the hammer line. However, asexpressedin the Japanese literature, "If it appearsfrom below, buy, and if appearsfrom above,sell." This phrase meansthat the sameshapeline canbe bullish or bearish, depending on where it appearsin a trend. If this line appears "from below," that is, during a decline, it is a bullish hammer. However, if this sameshapeline appears"from above," that is, during an uptrend, it is a sell signal and is referred to as a hanging man line.
  • 68. 60 ,,Black ,_rr orWhite I l- crose shourd be , | | under hanging man's , I reatbody l l l l T EXHIBIT3.5. TheHangingMan I Thus, the hanging man line is a top reversal signal that must arrive during a rally, while the hammer is a bottom reversal line that must appear during a decline; the same line can be bullish or bearish, de- pending on the trend preceding it. In this context, it is interesting that the japanesehave two words for rice. They call it either "raislJ,, oi ,,go- han." Raisu is the |apaneseterm for rice when it is prepared westJrn style. The term "raisu" even soundslike the western word "rice.,, Go- han alsomeansrice,but it is ricepreparedjapanesestyle.In otherword.s, the Japanese refer to the exactsameproduct-rice-by different names. tVhatsurrounds the rice determines whether the rice is referred to as raisu or gohan. So it is with the hammer and hanging man. whether the candle line is a bullish pattern (the hammer) or a bearish pattern (the hanging man) is dependent on what precedesthe line. with the hanging man's long lower shadowreflectingbuying interest, it may seem that the hanging man is a bullish signal. However, the hangman's action shows that once the market has fallen, it has become very fragile. The smallteal body of the hanging man alsoshowsthat the prior uptrend may be in the processof changing. Becauseof the bullish action of the hanging man session(during the sessionthe market sells off and then ralliesby the close),an important aspectof the hanging man lines is that there should be bearishconfirmation. A common method of bearishconfirmation of a hangman is to wait to seeif the next session,s closeis under the hanging man's realbody. This is shown in Exhibit 3.5. The reasonfor the importanceof this confirmation hasto do with the fact that the hanging man's long lower shadow shows that there is still rising power left in the market. However, if pricesfall under the hanging man's real body, it translatesinto the fact that everyonewho bought at the open or closeof the hanging man sessionis now losing money. In such a scenario,these longs may decide to liquidate, and by doing so, may engendera further weakening of prices. since my seminaron the candlesat the world Bank in washington,
  • 69. ThePatterns 61 CAIIDLESTICX (DAILI) I I I . I I ,'tl 'lr, , r--HansinsMan ;r"'*[l gu",-t:1 }-ffliil' trrr I FteutersGraphics EXHIBIT 3.6. Confirmation of a Hanging Man, German Bund-Daily DC, someof their tradershave askedmy opinion on candlepatternson various markets. One of their traders asked what I thought about the chart of the German Bund shown in Exhibit 3.6. She askedmy opinion on April 10after the hanging man was formed. I explainedto her that if the hanging man were confirmed by a weaker sessionthe next day, the outlook would be bearish.In this case,the market confirmedthe bearish hanging man during the next session. Exhibit 3.7 shows how important it is to wait for confirmation of a hanging man session.In that chart, we seea hanging man. However, note how the following week the bulls pushed prices abovethe high of the hanging man. This meansthat thosewho bought during the hanging man sessionnow have a profit. Consequently,there is little reasonfor them to liquidate their longs. The result is that a higher closethan the hanging man sessionvoids any of the bearish potential of the hanging man. That is what happened here as the market exceededthe hanging man session.Also of interestin this chart is that in April 1992,there was a hammer that was alsoa bullish spring, sincethe hammer made a new low which failed to hold. An article about my work with candles in TheWall Streetlournal dis- played the chart shown in Exhibit 3.8. In this article,I discussedhow the hanging man at $40 helped confirm a top. I explained that before the 1990Mid-east crisis, the highest crude oil futures reachedwas around $32(crudeoil futures begantrading in 1983).Once the market exceeded that level, I had a target at around $40.That was a resistanceareain the cashmarket back in 1979.Note that at the $40area,there was a bearish candle signal via the hanging man line. The market retreatedfrom this g40level and testeda support line. It then rallied and, with sort of a last
  • 70. Candles EXHIBIT 3.7. waiting for Confirmation of a Hanging Man, Bonds-weekly EXHIBIT 3.8. Hanging Man Confirms Resistance, November 1990 Crude Oil-Dailv