HeroConf 2019 Speaker Presentation for international PPC focused on capturing last minute volume, building a demand forecast model, and when to call it quits on unsuccessful tests.

1. Here and There:
PPC for Consumers on the Move
and Around the Globe
Rachel Vandernick | Acquisition Marketing Manager |

2. Learner Outcomes
After this session, you will be able to:
● Build a forecasting model to better anticipate product demand peaks
● Understand the importance of time delays in purchase behavior
● Know when to call it quits on tests + targeting

3. Global PPC Challenges
● Distracted consumers
● Currency fluctuations + conversions
● Fixed start/stop times related to travel
● Budget constraints for consumers [tourists]

4. Where We Went Awry
● Built campaigns with the wrong modifier
● Assumed we fully understood booking seasonality nuance and that booking
behavior was static year-to-year
● Bid as though seasonality was consistent country-to-country
● Bottom line: Went with our “gut”, and what we “knew” to be true—not
with facts based in real consumer purchase data that we pressure
tested

5. What is a Demand Forecast Model?
Budget Tool + Growth Planning + Consumer Demand

6. Create a Demand Forecast Model
Where does the data come from?
● Heat maps by region/product
● Uncovered nuanced variations for locations we had long-held, but
inaccurate, truths
● Choose your strongest sets of data and narrow your range
● Ignore the irrelevant

7. Importance of Time Delays
“When do you need a kayak paddle?”

8. Importance of Time Delays
● Know your impacting factors:
● Ex: What will people purchase first, a flight or an activity?
● Understand the buying cycle of your related products
● Capitalize on promos in related industries that influence purchase behavior
● Booking behavior is fluid + dynamic + seasonal

9. How to Create a Forecasting Model
Choose your data sources:
● Consumer purchase behavior
● Trends in searches
● Peaks in bids/impression share max out
Layer with increasing point values.
● The warmer the color, the greater your need to bid aggressively

10. Demand Forecast Model Draft
Turn this —>

11. Demand Forecast Model Final
Into This —>

12. A Note on Time Delays + Forecast Models
● Consider building a ramp-up schedule
● Prorate your total spend for the product based on time delays + demand
● Which is more important to your business:
● Aggressive bidding + consumer capture during peak OR
● Continuous presence year-round

13. Capturing Last-Minute Volume
Profit vs. Performance
● When does it make sense to intentionally take a loss?
● Text ads vs remarketing
● Importance of regimented and documented testing
● Consider CPA as fluid, not fixed

14. Do We Call It Quits?
● Go back to P&L
● Losses leading to losses
● Which audiences are not converting?
● Turn PPC losses into SEO wins
● Establish a “quit-mas” [quitting litmus]
● Failing without learning

15. My Big Failure

16. What’s Happening?
Campaign: What’s Happening [in location]
Quit-mus Test: Big fail, abandon ship
Cause: Event-driven, not attraction-driven. Instant book only [next day or less]
Targeting: In-country, in-market
Fix: Abandon PPC and turn into downloadable content for lead [email] generation

17. Easy Wins Abroad
● RLSA
● Retargeting & Dynamic Remarketing
● Radius/zipcode targeting
● The value of “brand”

18. Steal These Ideas
● Create a demand forecast model to uncover nuance in bookings curve
● Check your gut with facts. Don’t assume what was true last year remains true
right now.
● Consider taking a loss on text ads, but set a limit
● Use your data to find audiences that are already engaged with you
● Pressure test successes, learn from failures