Daily Technical Trader - KSA March 31, 2016

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Daily Technical Trader – KSA
Thursday, 31 March 2016
Stock Covered Today
Ticker Price (SAR) 1
st
Target
SAFCO 69.94 74.30
TASI All Share Index
Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)
Last 6,215.65 0.63 187.7
Resistance/Support
Levels 1
st
2
nd
3
rd
Resistance 6,260 6,450 6,700
Support 6,170 6,100 6,000
TASI All Share Index Commentary
Overview:
The Index inched higher on more trading
activity (traded volumes and values).
That can be considered as a positive sign
in the short term. In addition, that small
activity created a bullish Harami
formation. That formation is of a weak
signal and needs more activity on the
upside to be confirmed.
Expected Resistance Level: 6,260
Expected Support Level: 6,170
TASI (Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
TASI Summary
Market Indicators 30 Mar 29 Mar %Ch.
Value (SAR bn) 5.7 4.4 29.2
Mkt. Cap. (SAR bn) 1,434.4 1,423.4 0.8
Volume (mn) 231.8 228.0 1.7
Transactions 130,072 110,777 17.4
Companies Traded 168 168 0.0
Market Breadth 118:46 38:126 –
Saudi Equity Indices
Market Indices Close 1D% RSI
Banking 14,032.77 0.36 43.18
Petrochem 4,030.24 1.48 51.82
Cement 4,327.48 -0.56 43.16
Retail 9,625.13 0.59 40.37
Energy and Utilities 5,753.78 -0.28 54.85
Agriculture and Food 7,630.02 0.10 46.33
Telecom 1,595.99 1.08 56.01
Insurance 1,159.49 3.00 63.87
Multi-Investment 2,783.73 0.25 54.96
Industrial Invest. 5,422.61 0.26 37.72
Building and Const. 1,929.23 0.34 49.98
RE Development 5,702.78 0.91 50.78
Transportation 6,734.88 0.32 54.51
Media & Publishing 2,839.37 -1.22 47.28
Hotel and Tourism 9,313.39 0.01 38.27
RSI 14 (Over Bought) From Page 3 Table
Name Close 1D% RSI
MOBILE TELECOM 8.88 -1.3 71.1
RSI 14 (Over Sold) From Page 3 Table
Name Close 1D% RSI
TASI (30min)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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SAUDI ARABIAN FERTILIZER (SAFCO)
Price (SAR) % Ch. Volume
Last 69.94 1.97 1,288,637
Resistance/Support
Levels (SAR) 1
st
2
nd
3
rd
Resistance 70.75 74.30 76.10
Support 66.80 65.00 62.00
Commentary
Overview:
Although the name has been trading in a
downtrend channel in the medium term,
we see multiple factor of a possible bullish
breakout. The price has been negotiating
the upper side of that downtrend channel
is one factor. Another one is a spike in
traded volumes, which means more flow
could be coming into the name. Finally,
the price has corrected to the 50%
Fibonacci level after a sharp move
upwards (stemmed from the Double
Bottom formation seen in January and
February of this year).
Expected Target Price: SAR74.30 –
SAR76.10
A price breakaway above SAR70.75
triggers the buy recommendation.
Suggested Stop-Loss Price: SAR66.80
(Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
(Hourly)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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Intraday Fibonacci Sup/Res Levels for the Most Active in Traded Value Daily Moving Averages
Support Levels Resistance Levels
Ticker Close 3
rd
2
nd
1
st
Pivot 1
st
2
nd
3
rd
50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA
ADVANCED PETROCH 40.41 39.27 39.61 39.83 40.17 40.51 40.73 41.07 37.51 39.54 44.76
AL ALAMIYA COOPE 32.29 31.03 31.45 31.71 32.13 32.55 32.81 33.23 30.17 43.53 50.30
AL RAJHI BANK 52.50 51.83 52.12 52.30 52.58 52.87 53.05 53.33 51.92 51.14 54.72
AL TAYYAR TRAVEL 35.14 34.45 34.71 34.88 35.15 35.41 35.58 35.85 39.03 52.32 68.95
ALANDALUS PROPER 21.35 20.95 21.12 21.23 21.40 21.57 21.68 21.85 20.86 N/A N/A
ALINMA BANK 12.97 12.89 12.93 12.95 12.99 13.03 13.05 13.09 13.23 13.65 16.55
ALINMA TOKIO MAR 21.05 20.22 20.48 20.65 20.92 21.18 21.35 21.62 19.43 20.70 21.22
ASH-SHARQIYAH DE 41.23 40.48 40.74 40.91 41.18 41.44 41.61 41.88 39.22 46.65 57.02
BANK AL-JAZIRA 13.39 13.23 13.29 13.32 13.38 13.44 13.47 13.53 13.04 14.48 18.95
BUPA ARABIA 111.69 107.23 108.76 109.70 111.23 112.76 113.70 115.23 110.21 108.83 115.95
CO FOR COOPERATI 77.19 74.06 75.11 75.76 76.81 77.86 78.51 79.56 72.43 73.53 82.13
DAR AL ARKAN REA 5.27 5.19 5.23 5.25 5.29 5.33 5.35 5.39 4.84 5.44 6.55
EMAAR ECONOMIC C 13.55 13.18 13.36 13.46 13.63 13.81 13.91 14.08 13.00 12.12 12.17
ETIHAD ETISALAT 29.92 29.17 29.40 29.54 29.77 30.00 30.14 30.37 24.92 26.43 28.05
JABAL OMAR DEVEL 54.74 52.75 53.51 53.98 54.75 55.51 55.98 56.75 51.34 52.65 59.63
KNOWLEDGE ECON 13.19 12.70 12.85 12.94 13.10 13.25 13.34 13.50 11.82 13.18 17.02
MALATH INSURANCE 15.35 14.38 14.73 14.94 15.28 15.63 15.84 16.18 14.06 17.14 22.04
MEDITERRANEAN & 21.86 20.02 20.65 21.04 21.67 22.30 22.69 23.32 18.28 21.63 27.06
MOBILE TELECOMMU 8.88 8.66 8.76 8.81 8.91 9.01 9.06 9.16 6.67 7.50 8.90
NATIONAL COMM 40.02 39.74 39.85 39.93 40.04 40.15 40.23 40.34 40.27 45.00 51.62
NATIONAL SHIPPIN 42.00 41.33 41.64 41.83 42.13 42.44 42.63 42.93 38.22 41.37 42.52
RABIGH REFINING 10.60 10.40 10.48 10.52 10.60 10.68 10.72 10.80 9.72 11.16 14.99
SABB TAKAFUL 27.32 26.77 27.00 27.14 27.37 27.60 27.74 27.97 23.79 28.31 34.86
SABIC 74.80 73.43 73.91 74.21 74.68 75.16 75.46 75.93 71.55 76.06 82.18
SAPTCO 12.04 11.88 11.94 11.97 12.03 12.09 12.12 12.18 11.32 14.25 18.38
SASCO 16.40 15.87 16.04 16.14 16.32 16.49 16.59 16.77 15.62 18.83 22.43
SAUDI ARABIAN MI 28.36 27.99 28.14 28.23 28.39 28.54 28.63 28.79 30.42 31.82 33.34
SAUDI CERAMIC CO 37.87 37.42 37.61 37.73 37.92 38.11 38.23 38.42 37.45 42.68 55.06
SAUDI GROUND SER 40.97 39.52 40.06 40.39 40.92 41.46 41.79 42.32 41.81 44.11 N/A
SAUDI KAYAN PETR 5.14 5.01 5.07 5.11 5.16 5.22 5.26 5.31 4.96 6.13 7.84
SAUDI PAPER MANU 13.89 13.72 13.82 13.88 13.98 14.08 14.14 14.24 13.54 15.75 17.62
SAUDI PRINTING & 20.90 20.40 20.65 20.80 21.05 21.30 21.45 21.70 20.61 22.07 19.44
SAUDI RESEARCH A 41.27 40.22 40.72 41.03 41.52 42.02 42.33 42.82 42.21 43.56 29.86
SAUDI TELECOM CO 64.05 61.85 62.52 62.93 63.60 64.27 64.68 65.35 64.98 65.34 65.08
SAUDI TRANSPORT 51.13 48.84 49.57 50.02 50.74 51.47 51.92 52.64 52.41 57.19 60.33
SHAMS 36.21 35.67 35.86 35.98 36.17 36.36 36.48 36.67 36.30 36.23 38.05
THIMAR 33.19 32.66 32.85 32.97 33.16 33.35 33.47 33.66 33.00 35.33 46.17
TIHAMA 36.85 35.75 36.28 36.62 37.15 37.68 38.02 38.55 34.10 31.48 47.40
Sources: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

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Definitions:
Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening and
the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is lower
than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they
compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.
Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.
Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the
security price to head lower.
SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus considered
a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative price
direction and potential support/resistance levels.
Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in
a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally
use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be
considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.
Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &
shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.
Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These
levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.
Fibonacci Pivot and Intraday Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot
Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.

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Contacts:
Zaid al-Nafoosi, CMT, CFTe Saugata Sarkar Shahan Keushgerian
Senior Research Analyst Head of Research Senior Research Analyst
Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509
zaid.alnafoosi@qnbfs.com.qa saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa
QNB Financial Services SPC
Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
PO Box 24025
Doha, Qatar
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