The document provides a daily market summary and analysis of the Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) and the stock of Allianz Saudi Fransi Coop Insur. (ALLIANZ). It summarizes that the TASI has been giving mixed signals as the uptrend remains intact daily but the intraday trend is showing weakness. It expects resistance at 6,700 and support at 6,550. For ALLIANZ, it notes the stock has been trending down and stabilized below SAR 40, with momentum remaining down. It expects more weakness and has a price target of SAR 36.60-35.40.
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Daily Technical Trader – KSA
Monday, 23 May 2016
Today’s coverage
Ticker Price (SAR) 1
st
Target
ALLIANZ 38.13 36.60
TASI All Share Index
Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)
Last 6,628.95 -0.99 176.3
Resistance/Support
Levels 1
st
2
nd
3
rd
Resistance 6,700 6,850 7,000
Support 6,550 6,450 9,300
TASI All Share Index Commentary
Overview:
The Index has been giving us mixed
signals and continues to do so. The
uptrend remains intact on the daily chart
but the intraday is showing a different
attitude. We remain cautious on the
current direction of the Index.
Expected Resistance Level: 6,700
Expected Support Level: 6,550
TASI (Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
TASI Summary
Market Indicators 22 May 19 May %Ch.
Value (SAR bn) 4.1 5.1 -20.0
Volume (mn) 193.6 231.9 -16.5
Mkt. Cap. (SAR bn) 1,519.7 1,531.7 -0.8
Market Breadth 33:133 31:134 –
Saudi Equity Indices
Market Indices Close 1D% RSI
Banking 14,706.08 -1.34 44.71
Petrochem 4,500.76 -0.87 55.71
Cement 4,365.22 -0.55 42.60
Retail 10,558.48 1.65 68.71
Energy and Utilities 6,092.64 -0.85 54.98
Agriculture and Food 7,799.30 -0.35 46.95
Telecom 1,565.25 -0.55 46.76
Insurance 1,316.02 -2.69 60.28
Multi-Investment 2,781.10 -0.78 38.84
Industrial Invest. 6,763.22 -1.85 62.60
Building and Const. 2,109.88 -0.95 52.33
RE Development 5,955.76 -1.36 39.64
Transportation 7,394.03 -1.01 51.23
Media & Publishing 3,081.31 0.10 59.78
Hotel and Tourism 10,683.74 -1.45 55.81
RSI 14 (Over Bought) From Page 3 Table
Name Close 1D% RSI
RSI 14 (Over Sold) From Page 3 Table
Name Close 1D% RSI
TASI (30min)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
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Allianz Saudi Fransi Coop Insur. (ALLIANZ)
Price (SAR) % Ch. Volume
Last 38.13 -1.09 1,151,428
Resistance/Support
Levels (SAR) 1
st
2
nd
3
rd
Resistance 40.00 41.30 45.00
Support 37.80 36.60 35.40
Commentary
Overview:
The name has been trending down and
stabilized below the SAR40.00 resistance
level. The momentum remains down and
the price is hovering around and below
the SMAs. As a result, we expect more
weakness is probable.
Expected Price Target: SAR36.60 –
SAR35.40
A price breach below SAR37.80 triggers
the sell recommendation.
(Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
(Hourly)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
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Intraday Fibonacci Sup/Res Levels for the Most Active in Traded Value Daily Moving Averages
Support Levels Resistance Levels
Ticker Close 3
rd
2
nd
1
st
Pivot 1
st
2
nd
3
rd
50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA
ADVANCED PETROCH 48.69 47.70 48.19 48.50 49.00 49.49 49.80 50.30 44.00 40.03 42.89
AL ALAMIYA COOP 31.86 30.62 31.27 31.67 32.32 32.97 33.37 34.02 31.86 33.30 45.71
AL RAJHI BANK 58.23 57.08 57.65 58.00 58.58 59.15 59.50 60.08 56.37 53.68 53.62
AL TAYYAR TRAVEL 41.43 40.68 41.06 41.29 41.68 42.06 42.29 42.68 38.28 41.22 57.58
ALANDALUS PROP 21.25 21.12 21.19 21.24 21.32 21.39 21.44 21.52 21.42 N/A N/A
ALINMA BANK 13.56 13.29 13.42 13.50 13.64 13.77 13.85 13.99 13.57 13.36 14.85
ALINMA TOKIO MAR 20.26 19.59 19.95 20.17 20.54 20.90 21.12 21.49 20.61 19.71 19.95
ASH-SHARQIYAH 42.67 41.62 42.12 42.43 42.92 43.42 43.73 44.22 42.01 40.63 49.89
BANK AL-JAZIRA 13.35 13.22 13.29 13.34 13.42 13.49 13.54 13.62 13.77 13.34 16.32
BUPA ARABIA 141.97 136.99 139.57 141.16 143.74 146.32 147.91 150.49 122.34 115.59 116.06
CO FOR COOP 90.86 88.62 89.86 90.63 91.87 93.11 93.88 95.12 81.48 76.13 79.73
DAR AL ARKAN REA 5.45 5.38 5.42 5.45 5.48 5.52 5.55 5.58 5.34 5.17 5.91
EMAAR ECONOMIC 14.20 13.60 13.83 13.97 14.20 14.43 14.57 14.80 14.04 13.30 12.10
ETIHAD ETISALAT 28.79 28.40 28.59 28.71 28.90 29.09 29.21 29.40 29.58 26.57 27.40
JABAL OMAR DEVEL 58.05 56.85 57.52 57.93 58.60 59.27 59.68 60.35 59.88 54.09 57.05
KNOWLEDGE ECON 14.07 13.86 13.97 14.04 14.16 14.27 14.34 14.46 13.95 12.79 14.85
MALATH INSURANCE 15.94 15.61 15.79 15.89 16.06 16.24 16.34 16.51 15.87 15.34 18.74
MEDITERRANEAN 22.72 22.01 22.39 22.62 23.01 23.39 23.62 24.01 22.85 20.81 23.54
MOBILE TELECOM 8.44 8.21 8.33 8.40 8.51 8.63 8.70 8.81 8.79 7.58 8.40
NATIONAL COMM 42.49 42.03 42.22 42.34 42.53 42.72 42.84 43.03 41.98 41.45 47.55
NATIONAL SHIPPING 44.14 43.91 44.03 44.10 44.21 44.33 44.40 44.51 43.26 39.96 40.21
RABIGH REFINING 12.29 12.06 12.16 12.22 12.31 12.41 12.47 12.56 11.60 10.51 13.05
SABB TAKAFUL 27.41 26.80 27.11 27.30 27.60 27.91 28.10 28.40 26.72 25.24 31.60
SABIC 82.35 81.45 81.93 82.22 82.70 83.18 83.47 83.95 79.41 74.39 78.96
SAPTCO 13.17 12.92 13.04 13.11 13.22 13.34 13.41 13.52 12.70 12.02 15.70
SASCO 17.01 16.87 16.95 16.99 17.07 17.15 17.19 17.27 17.02 16.32 19.71
SAUDI ARABIAN MI 39.71 38.90 39.32 39.58 40.00 40.42 40.68 41.10 33.42 31.89 32.06
SAUDI CERAMIC 39.43 38.88 39.14 39.31 39.58 39.84 40.01 40.28 39.98 38.75 48.01
SAUDI GROUND 49.82 49.27 49.46 49.58 49.77 49.96 50.08 50.27 45.91 43.18 50.48
SAUDI KAYAN PETR 6.66 6.55 6.61 6.65 6.70 6.76 6.80 6.85 5.88 5.50 6.96
SAUDI PAPER MAN 13.91 13.70 13.82 13.89 14.00 14.12 14.19 14.30 14.01 13.73 15.79
SAUDI PRINTING 21.37 20.62 20.99 21.21 21.57 21.94 22.16 22.52 21.18 20.78 19.89
SAUDI RESEARCH 47.62 46.07 46.84 47.31 48.07 48.84 49.31 50.07 42.41 43.01 34.54
SAUDI TELECOM CO 63.61 63.20 63.39 63.51 63.70 63.89 64.01 64.20 63.84 63.89 64.03
SAUDI TRANSPORT 57.43 55.81 56.67 57.20 58.06 58.92 59.45 60.31 52.13 52.82 56.65
SHAMS 36.50 35.90 36.21 36.39 36.70 37.01 37.19 37.50 36.74 36.46 36.17
THIMAR 33.83 32.94 33.36 33.62 34.04 34.46 34.72 35.14 33.24 33.14 38.12
TIHAMA 37.31 36.57 36.95 37.19 37.57 37.95 38.19 38.57 37.13 33.85 36.98
Sources: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given stock price
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Definitions:
Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening and
the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is lower
than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they
compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.
Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.
Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the
security price to head lower.
SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus considered
a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative price
direction and potential support/resistance levels.
Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in
a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally
use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be
considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.
Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &
shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.
Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These
levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.
Fibonacci Pivot and Intraday Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot
Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.
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Contacts:
Zaid al-Nafoosi, CMT, CFTe Saugata Sarkar Shahan Keushgerian
Senior Research Analyst Head of Research Senior Research Analyst
Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509
zaid.alnafoosi@qnbfs.com.qa saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa
Sahbi Kasraoui Youssef Elboghdady QNB Financial Services SPC
Acting Head of Trading Head of Institutional Sales & Trading Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6542 PO Box 24025
sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa youssef.elboghdady@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar
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