In this webinar, Matt Heusser explains how not only how to deal with tough questions, but how to prepare and defend estimates that stand up to scrutiny. The conversation includes six estimating models - comparison, functional decomposition, timeboxed, and prediction, along the Guru Method and, perhaps, a little on #NoEstimates. Don’t miss this opportunity to learn: Learn the common mistakes in software test estimation How Testing is different than linear tasks like development (and how to talk about it) Learn what goes wrong in discussions about schedule An explanation of ways to estimate for test - by comparison, functional decomposition, timeboxing, prediction and the guru method How to recognize when you are actually in test negotiation, not test estimation...and what to do about it Matt Heusser will discusses these topics and much, much more! Watch now: http://pi.qasymphony.com/test-estimation-hacks-webinar-lp057

1. #TESTESTIMATION HACKS
April 21 2016
Matt Heusser – Excelon Development Justin Rohrman- Excelon Development
Tips, Tricks and Tools
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2. HOWTOWATCHTHISWEBINAR
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• Audio for this webinar is delivered through your computer. Make
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3. Robust test management platform purpose-built to help agile teams
centralize, organize and accelerate software testing
ABOUT QASYMPHONY

4. Agile Transformation: People, Process
and Tools to Make Your
Transformation Successful
Wednesday, April 27th at 10am ET
Guest Speaker: Andrew Strickland
• Andrew Stickland is Head of Client Services for
Clearvision. With over 25 years experience in IT,
Andrew is a specialist in agile transformation and
tool adoption. Working with the likes of HSBC,
Thales and Proctor & Gamble, Andrew can draw on
a wealth of experience as a senior Atlassian
consultant delivering some of Clearvision's biggest
projects..
UPCOMING WEBINAR
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5. STAR EAST – MAY 4-5 IN ORLANDO
• Visit QASymphony booth #18
• Schedule a meeting with us at
calendly.com/stareast
• Check out Mike Cooper’s
presentation at 3pm on Thursday,
May 5th.
• Get more information at
stareast.techwell.com.
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6. Matt Heusser, Principal Consultant, Excelon Development
As Managing Director of Excelon Development, Matt Heusser
consults, trains, and contributes on software projects. Probably best
known for his writing, Matt is the lead editor of "How to Reduce The
Cost of Software Testing" (Taylor and Francis, 2011), editor for
Stickyminds.com, and recipient of the 2015 Most Popular Online
Contributor to Agile at the Agile Awards.
A 2014 recipient of the Most Infuential Agile Test Professional Person
Award (MAITPP) in Potsdam, Germany, Matt also served as the lead
organizer of the Software Testing World Cup. A former member of
the board of directors of the Association for Software Testing, Matt is
also the creator of the Lean Software Testing family of methods.
OUR PRESENTERS
Justin Rorhman, Senior Consultant, Excelon
Development
Justin has been a professional software tester in various
capacities since 2005. In his current role, Justin is a consulting
software tester and writer working with Excelon Development.
Outside of work, he is currently serving on the Association For
Software Testing Board of Directors as President helping to
facilitate and develop projects like BBST, WHOSE, and the
annual conference CAST.
Justin is deeply interested in software testing and delivery, and
also in helping organizations fix problems in measurement and
metrics programs.
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7. • This webinar will be recorded and available on-demand tomorrow.
You will get an email when it is available.
• Join the conversation on Twitter using the hashtag #testestimation
• Use the Q&A widgets to ask questions during the webinar.
• At the end of the webinar, you will be asked to take a short survey.
HOUSEKEEPING
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8. THE ‘WHY’ OF ESTIMATES
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9. OUR AGENDA
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• Why Estimate
• Fundamental Issues in Test Estimation
• Estimating Models
• Decomposition, Comparison, Timeboxed, Prediction,
Guru Method, Aggregate, Consensus
• Test Estimation Vs Test Negotiation
• Responding to Tough Questions
• Q&A
• Conclusions
Goal: Make your life better
by helping you answer “How Long Will it Take?”
In a way that will stick!

10. THE ‘WHY’ OF ESTIMATES
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• Schedule Control
• Cost Control
• Comparison Shopping
• Governance

11. ISSUES:WHY IT’S HARD
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• Most projects are linear
• Testing is not
• Time can be spent test, documenting,
fixing, or waiting
• Beyond the power of test
• The quality of the software pre-testing
• The amount of time waiting for fixes
• The bug injection rate
• 100 changes ~40%:168 changes
• 100 changes ~20%: 129 changes

12. METHOD: FUNCTIONAL DECOMPOSITION
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You will need a pen and paper for this exercise

13. METHOD: FUNCTIONAL DECOMPOSITION
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Pros Cons
People “get it” Inaccurate
Culturally Accepted Assumes 40hrs/week of productivity
Easy to sell Assumes linear work
Padding is de rigueur Kind of sleazy to sell
Life is too short to play games

14. METHOD: COMPARISON
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“Breadbox analysis”

15. METHOD: COMPARISON
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Pros Cons
Fast …if possible
Lack of std definitions
Fails with bad data
Hard to get good data
Scope tends to creep

16. METHOD:TIMEBOXED
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“How long will it take
you to test for a day”

17. METHOD:TIMEBOXED
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Pros Cons
Easy! Unpredictable
Doesn’t always work
Hard to explain “why”

18. METHOD: PREDICTION
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We don’t do 40 hours of on-
project work in a week.
Let’s count the number we
actually get done.
And plan on that.

19. METHOD: PREDICTION
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We don’t do 40 hours of on-
project work in a week.
Let’s count the number we
actually get done.
And plan on that.

20. METHOD: PREDICTION / PROJECTION
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Pros Cons
Accurate …if people want to hear it
Defensible Requires some data
Empirical/data-backed Misses black swans
May hurt creativity in test
Inaccurate with pure averages

21. METHOD: GURU METHOD
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Step 1: Pick a Guru
Step 2: Ask them for a date
Step 3: Use that

22. METHOD: AGGREGATE & CONSENSUS
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Gather estimates from peers
Average them
Or (better)
Explore differences

23. METHOD: AGGREGATE & CONSENSUS
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Pros Cons
Requires time/effort Forced consensus effect
Wisdom of Crowds Outliers most interesting
Gets buy-in What theoretical basis?
Hard to sell Easy to do poorly
Habituated response effect

24. METHOD: ALLTHETHINGS
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Use several methods
Ask why are they different

25. METHOD: ALLTHETHINGS
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Pros Cons
Accurate Very expensive
Mature Haystack effect
Responsible “Too much theory”
Educates “Shouldn’t you be working?”
All methods broken

26. METHOD: ALLTHETHINGS
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Pros Cons
Accurate Very expensive
Mature Haystack effect
Responsible “Too much theory”
Educates “Shouldn’t you be working?”
All methods broken
Fix: Start by gathering data, then build your own
defensible models of project performance. Learn
to educate without preaching. Give and take.

27. SIDEBAR: EFFORTVSTIME
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It’s a mind problem
… and the fix is data

28. TEST ESTIMATION: ORTEST NEGOTIATION
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Matts first day on his first job
Alternatives to “yes” and “no”

29. COMMUNICATIONS: PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTIONS
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50% confidence – “Most Likely”
90% confidence interval – “Protected”

30. RESPONDINGTOTOUGH QUESTIONS
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• Provide Data
• Make it transparent
• Make it a conversation
• Provide options:
• Cut from the top
• Let the bottom go
• More/Less time

31. Q&A
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Questions?

32. Thank you
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