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Quality Jam 2017: Paul Merrill "Machine Learning & How it Affects Testers"

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Machine Learning is all the rage. Companies like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft are investing extreme sums of money into their ML budgets. But what is it, and more importantly, how will it affect me, as a tester? Last year, Paul was at a testing conference where a group of 5 executives decreed adamantly that ML would replace testers within the next few years. Anytime 5 executives agree on anything he questions it. So he wanted to learn if they were right. Over the last few months, Paul has researched and learned about ML. He's talked with industry experts in the field and testers with expertise in ML. He wanted to know what they had to say about this decree. He wanted to know, "is testing in danger of being automated by ML?"

Paul Merrill talks about what he's found in his research, provides an introduction to ML, and give info to decide for yourself if the future of testing will be in the hands of ML algorithms.

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Quality Jam 2017: Paul Merrill "Machine Learning & How it Affects Testers"

  1. 1. www.beaufortfairmont.com 984.244.2313 Machine Learning & How It Affects Testers PAUL MERRILL @dpaulmerrill
  2. 2. www.beaufortfairmont.com 984.244.2313 Agenda What is Machine Learning? How will it affect what we test? How will it affect how we test? Will it take our jobs?
  3. 3. www.beaufortfairmont.com 984.244.2313 I am not a Machine Learning expert!
  4. 4. www.beaufortfairmont.com 984.244.2313 What is Machine Learning?
  5. 5. www.beaufortfairmont.com 984.244.2313 Machine Learning Machine learning is the subfield of computer science that gives computers the ability to learn without being explicitly programmed. ~ Arthur Samuel (Paraphrased and attributed)
  6. 6. www.beaufortfairmont.com 984.244.2313 Machine Learning A computer program is said to learn from experience E with respect to some class of tasks T and performance measure P if its performance at tasks in T, as measured by P, improves with experience E. ~ Tom Mitchell
  7. 7. www.beaufortfairmont.com 984.244.2313 3 Types of Learning 1.Supervised Learning Inputs relate to outputs Training 2.Unsupervised Learning Anomalous data Interesting relationships 3.Reinforcement Learning Trial and error Results as feedback
  8. 8. www.beaufortfairmont.com 984.244.2313 Which type of problems? Natural Language Processing Healthcare Imaging Transportation Search
  9. 9. www.beaufortfairmont.com 984.244.2313 What are we using ML for? Projections Augmenting thought Replacing or augmenting human judgement Understanding data Dealing with large amounts of data Strategic advantage
  10. 10. www.beaufortfairmont.com 984.244.2313 How will ML affect what we test?
  11. 11. www.beaufortfairmont.com 984.244.2313 - World Quality Report 2016-17
  12. 12. www.beaufortfairmont.com 984.244.2313 What We Test Will Change Runtime generated rulesets Expectations less clear Less repeatability >0% error tolerance No longer an exact answer
  13. 13. www.beaufortfairmont.com 984.244.2313 What We Test Testing will get harder. ~ George Neal Chief Data Analyst, PrecisionLender
  14. 14. www.beaufortfairmont.com 984.244.2313 The Future For people who don’t like to do what humans do well, the future is a very scary place. ~ George Neal
  15. 15. www.beaufortfairmont.com 984.244.2313 How will ML affect how we test?
  16. 16. www.beaufortfairmont.com 984.244.2313
  17. 17. www.beaufortfairmont.com 984.244.2313 The Future Machines are better programmers than testers. ~ Jason Arbon, CEO, AppDiff
  18. 18. www.beaufortfairmont.com 984.244.2313 The Future [You] have to be smarter than most programmers to be a really good tester. ~ Jason Arbon
  19. 19. www.beaufortfairmont.com 984.244.2313 The Future I still think the hardest thing in software is testing! ~ Jason Arbon
  20. 20. www.beaufortfairmont.com 984.244.2313 The Future When computers generate code, they can’t test it either. ~ Jason Arbon
  21. 21. www.beaufortfairmont.com 984.244.2313 The Future ML will augment our ability to be extremely smart about what we cover. - Anonymous
  22. 22. www.beaufortfairmont.com 984.244.2313 The Future [ML will work] within the program, informing us of what to test. - Anonymous
  23. 23. www.beaufortfairmont.com 984.244.2313 The Future There are a set of problems that have required human judgement that are now tractable. ~ Doug Kubel VP Product Development UltraLinq Healthcare Solutions
  24. 24. www.beaufortfairmont.com 984.244.2313 The Future [ML] may enable some types of testing. ~ Doug Kubel
  25. 25. www.beaufortfairmont.com 984.244.2313 Will ML take our jobs?
  26. 26. www.beaufortfairmont.com 984.244.2313 Testers vs. testers 10% vs. 90%
  27. 27. www.beaufortfairmont.com 984.244.2313 The Future There is no way ML will be involved in every single testing job in the next 30 years. ~ Anonymous
  28. 28. www.beaufortfairmont.com 984.244.2313 The Future Deep learning won’t put everyone out of a job, but it will have an impact. ~ Doug Kubel
  29. 29. www.beaufortfairmont.com 984.244.2313 The Future [ML] won’t put everyone out of jobs - not in software development, not in testing. ~ Doug Kubel
  30. 30. www.beaufortfairmont.com 984.244.2313 The Future When asked, “Will ML replace testers?” No. ~ Jason Arbon
  31. 31. www.beaufortfairmont.com 984.244.2313 I’ll leave you with one question…
  32. 32. www.beaufortfairmont.com 984.244.2313 The machines are learning, are you?
  33. 33. www.beaufortfairmont.com 984.244.2313 References “Machine Learning and AI Spending to Surge Toward $47B by 2020: IDC” - Which-50, https://which-50.com/machine-learning-ai-spending-surge-toward-47- billion-2020-idc/ “Some Studies in Machine Learning Using the Game of Checkers.” - Arthur Samuel, http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download? doi=10.1.1.368.2254&rep=rep1&type=pdf “Some Studies in Machine Learning Using the Game of Checkers. II-Recent Progress ” - Arthur Samuel, http://researcher.watson.ibm.com/researcher/files/us- beygel/samuel-checkers.pdf “Machine Learning with Python” parts 1-57 - Harrison Kinsley, https:// www.youtube.com/watch? v=OGxgnH8y2NM&list=PLQVvvaa0QuDfKTOs3Keq_kaG2P55YRn5v
  34. 34. www.beaufortfairmont.com 984.244.2313 References “How to Use Machine Learning Algorithms in Weka” - Jason Brownlee, http://machinelearningmastery.com/use-machine-learning-algorithms-weka/ “Weka 3 Data Mining Software in Java” - The University of Waikato, et al., http://www.cs.waikato.ac.nz/ml/weka/ “World Quality Report 2016-2017” - CapGemini, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Sogeti “Machine Learning” - Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ Machine_learning “Machine Learning” - Tom M. Mitchell, McGraw-Hill, 1997 AppDiff - https://www.appdiff.com/
  35. 35. www.beaufortfairmont.com 984.244.2313 Special Thanks George Neal, Chief Analytics Officer, PrecisionLender Jason Arbon, CEO, AppDiff Doug Kubal, VP Product Development, UltraLinq Healthcare Solutions Anonymous, a Major Health Analytics Company Anonymous, a Major Health Analytics Company
  36. 36. www.beaufortfairmont.com 984.244.2313 Call me today & Talk through your challenges 984.244.2313 Paul Merrill Webinars: beaufortfairmont.com/webinars Podcast: Reflection As A Service Email: paul@beaufortfairmont.com Twitter: @dpaulmerrill

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