DROUGHT, GROUNDWATER SCARCITY AND ADAPTATION MEASURES

1. BARIND AREA,NW BANGLADESH
DROUGHT, GROUNDWATER SCARCITY
AND ADAPTATION MEASURES

2.  Groundwater based irrigation directed to
cultivate high-yielding rice during dry season in
South Asia
 Bangladesh:
 World’s 4th largest rice-producing country
(Scott and Sharma, 2009 and IRRI, 2010)
 More than 75% water for irrigation comes
from groundwater
 Drought common in NW Bangladesh especially
when monsoon curtailed

3. BANGLADESH
AND
BARIND AREA
India
India

4. DROUGHT-PRONE AREAS IN BANGLADESH

5. Agro-based drought prone NW Bangladesh –
granary, where agricultural practices depend mostly
on groundwater irrigation
BIADP launched in late 80’s of last century to
achieve sustainable agricultural growth in Barind
area covering 7,500 km2
Multi-cropping agricultural practices boosted crop
intensity from 117% (pre-BIADP) to 200% (at
present) (national avg. 175%)
Scope for 8728 DTW of 2-cusec capacity (BMDA),
presently running ~15000 DTWs
Demand of groundwater irrigation increases day by
day
BARIND AREA

6. PHYSIOGRAPHY
PHYSIOGRAPHIC MAP
 Landforms:
 Barind Tract
 Floodplains
 Barind Tract
 N-S dome shaped area (20-
25 km wide in E-W direction)
 Edged parallel to river
valleys
Elevation 47.0 m in central
part to 11.0 m in the SE

7. CLIMATE SCENARIO
Three seasons:
 Winter (Nov-Feb) - Cool & dry with almost no
rainfall
 Pre-monsoon (Mar-May) - Hot & dry
 Monsoon (Jun-Oct) - Rainy

8. RAINFALL PATTERN
 Annual Avg. Rainfall (1971-2011):
1326 -1650 mm (avg. 1505 mm)
 Seasonal Mean Rainfall
 Winter: 36 mm (2.4%)
 Summer: 220 mm (12.6%)
 Rainy: 1248 mm (83%)
Distribution of Annual Rainfall

9. RAINFALL TRENDS
 Decreasing trend in annual rainfall (MK Z = -0.75)
 Slope: Q = -2.76 mm/year
Trend in Annual Rainfall

10. TRENDS IN SEASON RAINFALL
 In 15 rain gauge
stations, negative
trends found in
 Winter: 73%
 Summer: 53%
 Rainy: 60%
Trend in Winter Season
Trend in Summer Season
Trend in Rainy Season

11. MK Z Statistics
Stations Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Rajshahi -1.07 -1.78 0.40 -0.60 0.57 0.28 -1.24 -0.78 -0.35 -0.30 -1.05 -1.36
Tanore -1.02 -0.55 0.83 -0.31 0.24 -0.36 -0.69 0.39 0.44 0.82 -0.27 -1.15
Godagari -0.75 -1.35 0.99 -0.56 0.53 0.93 -0.28 -1.19 -0.17 -0.15 -1.32 -0.92
Bholahat -0.21 0.49 1.34 0.54 0.81 0.92 -0.74 0.01 -0.34 0.44 -0.21 -1.16
Nachole 0.45 -0.75 1.93 0.00 -0.95 1.63 -0.24 -0.64 -0.08 -1.03 -0.31 -0.06
Nawabganj 0.23 -1.21 0.68 0.58 0.54 1.44 1.67 -0.35 1.12 0.19 -1.01 -0.98
Rohonpur -0.55 -2.13 0.77 -0.03 0.56 1.64 -2.20 -0.94 -1.44 -0.25 -0.52 -2.49
Shibgonj 0.01 -1.21 2.16 0.00 -0.10 0.24 -0.08 -1.70 -0.25 -0.46 -0.24 -0.62
Atrai 0.22 -1.38 1.57 0.19 -1.21 -0.15 -0.86 -0.81 -0.66 -0.06 -1.41 0.52
Badalgachi -0.79 -1.97 0.58 0.49 -0.98 0.69 -2.01 -0.20 -1.07 0.13 -0.42 -1.16
Manda 0.04 -0.73 1.36 0.66 1.39 1.54 -0.57 0.46 0.48 0.93 0.77 -0.94
Mahadebpur -1.64 -2.02 0.50 -0.92 -0.55 0.03 -2.59 -0.21 -0.80 0.26 -1.85 -2.09
Porsha -1.01 -1.89 0.65 -0.69 -0.99 1.77 -0.95 -0.06 -0.90 0.75 -0.19 -1.96
Naogaon -0.71 -1.76 0.44 0.42 0.15 0.56 -1.44 -0.45 -0.31 -0.10 -1.16 -1.23
Sapahar -0.78 -1.26 -0.41 0.26 -0.78 2.44 -2.55 1.02 0.10 0.85 0.16 -2.13
Negative 10 14 1 6 7 2 14 11 11 7 13 14
Positive 5 1 14 7 8 13 1 4 4 8 2 1
%Negative 66.7 93.3 6.7 40.0 46.7 13.3 93.3 73.3 73.3 46.7 86.7 93.3
%Positive 33.3 6.7 93.3 46.7 53.3 86.7 6.7 26.7 26.7 53.3 13.3 6.7
TRENDS IN MONTHLY RAINFALL
Alarming Situation for Mid Monsoon Period

12. RAINFALL VARIABILITY
Rainfall Variability Map Annual & seasonal rainfall
variability very high
Indicate high uncertainty of
getting rain water :
 Annual: 26%
 Winter: 100%
 Summer: 54%
 Rainy: 27%
Difficult for Water Management Plan in High Rainfall
Variable Area (as rainfall getting uncertainty over 20%)
Results frequent droughts

13. SEASONALITY INDEX (SI) & CHANGES
SI Indices:
0.84-0.89 (Avg. 0.87)
Rainfall markedly
seasonal with long dry
season
 93% rainfall occurs: May-
Oct with certainty from
Jun. - Sep.
 Area receive 39% less
rainfall than national avg.
(2456 mm)
Monthly Rainfall Pattern
SI Index Trend in SI
Rainfall scarce area in Bangladesh

14. PRECIPITATION CONC. INDEX (PCI)
 PCI:
 18.26-21.42 (Avg. 19.84)
 Indicates irregular to
strongly irregular
distribution of rainfall
 Higher value reveals huge
pressure on water
resources
SI and PCI indicate rainfall occurred
in few months with short rainy days
making water scarce area
Distribution of PCI

15. Temperature
 Annual mean temp.: 25.23⁰C
 Increases at +0.02°C/year
Annual Mean Temp Distribution
Annual Mean Temp. Anomaly
Humidity
Annual Mean Humidity Distribution
Trend in Humidity
 Mean Annual Humidity:76.49%
 Annual magnitude of change: 0.09%

16. Drought and ENSO Phases (El Niño and La Niña)
 SPI-3 (Agricultural Drought): Twelve Moderate - Extreme drought :
1972, 1975, 1979, 1982, 1986, 1989, 1992, 1994, 2003, 2005, 2009 & 2010
SPI-3 Series in Study Area
SPI-6 Series in Study Area
 SPI-6 (Meteorological Drought): Twelve Moderate - Extreme
droughts: 1972, 1975, 1979, 1982, 1986, 1992, 1994, 1995, 1996, 2005, 2009
& 2010
SPI-12 Series in Study
Area
 SPI-12 (Hydrological Drought): Moderate-Extreme droughts: 1972,
1975, 1976, 1979, 1982, 1983, 1986, 1992, 1994, 1995, 2008, 2009 & 2010

17. In Bangladesh, seasonal average rainfall shows:
 Negative general tendency during strong El
Niño years
 Relation between rainfall variability and
ENSÕ index very high in Ganges basin
In Barind area:
 75% Historical drought events related
to El Niño variability

18. ANNUAL DROUGHT OCCURRENCES
 With increasing severity of drought, high drought occurrences
shift toward south & central parts of area
Southern & central parts of Barind area, mostly
affected by hydrological drought puts stress on
groundwater resources

19. DROUGHT DURING RAINY SEASON
 Drought trends increase during rainy season
results:
 Agricultural drought: 61%
 Meteorological drought: 59%
 Hydrological drought: 50%
Critical reproductive stages of T. Aman
rice with reducing yield

20. DECADAL DROUGHT EVENTS
 Dry episodes:
 Highest in recent decade
 Mild & Moderate drought:
 Increases rapidly in rainy
& summer seasons
Severe & Extreme drought:
 Fluctuating
Cumulative Decadal Drought Events

21. DROUGHT RISK
Category
Drought Frequency (year)
Agricultural Meteorological Hydrological
Mild 2.2 2.3 2.6
Moderate 10.3 13.7 6.8
Severe 5.9 4.6 8.2
Extreme 8.2 20.5 8.2
Class B: Moderate-High risk condition &
should be addressed by adaptation

22. Area belongs to humid zone and semi-aridity
creeping towards Northern part
ARIDITY INDEX
District Upazilla
Classification of Aridity Index
(range values in parenthesis for humid zone) Aridity
Zone  P/PET (>0.5) AL (>40)
1980-90 1991-09 1980-90 1991-09 1980-90 1991-09
Chapai-
Nawabganj
Rohonpur 42.81 38.48 0.9 0.88 60.14 53.37
HUMID
Shibganj 41.35 45.41 0.88 1.04 57.79 62.96
Nawabgan
j
35.1 41.87 0.73 0.96 49.3 58.07
Nachole 42.3 42.72 0.89 0.98 59.42 59.25
Bholahat 49.5 42.19 1.04 0.97 69.54 58.51
Naogaon
Porsha 42.7 49.07 0.89 1.12 59.99 68.06
Shapahar 43.55 42.66 0.91 0.98 61.18 59.16
Rajshahi
Godagari 43.1 37.82 0.9 0.87 60.55 52.46
Tanore 44.64 47.61 0.93 1.09 62.71 66.02

23. Chapai-Nawabganj and Rajshahi districts Naogaon district
Months ETBoro ETWheat ETPotato ETBoro ETWheat ETPotato
Jan 2.79 2.785 3.0 2.75 2.74 3.13
Feb 4.17 0.945 3.81 3.94 0.89 3.77
Mar 5.90 ** ** 5.53 ** **
Apr 7.13 ** ** 6.53 ** **
May ** ** ** ** ** **
Jun ** ** ** ** ** **
Nov ** 0.845 1.785 ** 0.815 1.725
Dec ** 1.74 2.275 ** 1.65 2.17
ET VALUES (mm/day) FOR CROPS
 ETcrop values for:
Paddy (Boro) as dominant crop > Wheat & Potato
 Cultivated areas of rice:
 Aman (78%), Boro (67%) and Aus (47%)

24. GROUNDWATER
SCENARIO

25. GENERAL ANNUAL TREND OF GWT
Recent declining rate higher than earlier.
After 2002-2004, GWL not return to original level
Sapahar
Nachole Tanore
Godagari

26. ANNUAL MAX. DEPTH TO GWT
1991 2010
 1991: GWT was near suction limit
except central part (Avg. depth
8.76 m)
 2010: GWT mostly below suction
limit (Avg. depth 12.95 m)
People not getting drinking water by HTW and
now use submersible pumps for drinking water

27. TREND OF GWT (SUMMER SEASON)
 Linear Trend shows decreasing trend in GWL
 MK Test Z = 4.96 (at 99% CL)
 Slope Q = 0.201 m/year (0.7 ft)
Analysis of 73 monitoring wells data shows trend of GWT:
 Significantly declining (84%)
 Insignificant declining (11%)
 Increasing trend (5%)
MAKESENS MODEL IN DRY SEASON GWT

28. GWT SCENARIO (SUMMER SEASON)
BY MAKESENS MODEL
Linear Slope
a b
MAKESENS :SlopeMAKESENS: Intercept
Very High Decreasing Rate in Barind Area
(0.7-0.8 m/year or 2.30 ft/year)

29.  2020: 4.58-39.9 m
(mean: 15.44 m)
 2030: 4.58-46.83 m
(mean: 17.31 m)
 2040: 4.58-53.76 m
(mean: 19.17 m)
 2050: 4.58-55.61 m
(mean: 21.04 m)
PROJECTED SCENARIO OF GWT (SUMMER SEASON)
(DEPTH TO WATER TABLE)
2020 2030
2040 2050

30. TREND OF GWT (RAINY SEASON)
 Linear Trend shows decreasing trend in GWL
 MK Test Z = 4.51 (at 99% CL),
 Slope Q = 0.201 m/year (0.7 ft.)
Analysis of 73 monitoring wells data shows trend of GWT:
 Significant declining (74%)
 Insignificant declining (21%)
 Increasing trend (5%)
MAKESENS MODEL OF WET SEASON GWT

31. GWT SCENARIO (RAINY SEASON)
BY MAKESENS MODEL
Higher decreasing rate of GWL in central part of
Barind area (0.6-0.7 m/year or 2.13 ft/year)
MAKESENS: Intercept MAKESENS: Slope Linear Slope

32.  2020: 1.36-27.14 m
 2030: 1.36-34.58 m
 2040: 1.36-42.02 m
 2050: 1.36-49.49 m
2020 2030
2040 2050
PROJECTED SCENARIO OF GWT (RAINY SEASON
)
(DEPTH TO WATER TABLE)

33. GROUNDWATER TABLE DEPLETION (1991-2010)
Dry Season Rainy Season Average
Depletion of GWT (1991-2010):
Dry season: 12-22 m
Rainy season: 8.5-14 m
Central Barind area: Avg. 9-14 m
Floodplain area: Avg. 4-6 m

34. AMOUNT OF GROUNDWATER DEPLETION
So 1-2 % annual rainfall must be harvested
to protect GWT depletion (High Barind: 2-3%)
Annual avg. amount of
groundwater depletion
(1991-2010): 114 Mm3
Average total annual
rainfall: 11000 Mm3

35. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RAINFALL & GWL
 Decreasing rate of rainfall: 1991-2011 > 1971-2011
Decreasing trend in rainfall consistent with
progressively declining trend of GWT

36. RELATIONSHIP
BETWEEN GWT & SPI
 In general annual avg.
& annual min. depth of
GWT influenced by SPI
values of rainy season
In Barind Area,
changes in SPI values
coincided with
changes in depth of
GWT

37. IRRIGATED AREAS
 Total irrigated areas by PPs, STWs and DTWs:
 5,29,000 acres (1993-94)
 17,78,000 acres (2011-2012)
 Total 23,565 hectares of land (6.72% of total irrigated
area) can be irrigated by surface water resources in
Barind area
Condition worsening due to increasing irrigated areas

38. GROUNDWATER RECHARGE vs. NIR
Comparison between NIR for paddy (Boro), wheat &
potato, NGR, PGR & UGR reveals:
 NIR of paddy (Boro) exceeds PGR
 Cultivation of Boro rice: 62% of cultivated area
Production of rice over years increase that
helps country to ensure food security

39. Declining trend of GWT (Summer and Rainy Seasons)
indicates:
 Groundwater resource depletion and depth GWT
will be almost double by 2050 than present
situation
 So groundwater will be scarce in forth coming
days resulting unsustainable resource for
development
 People will have to replace normal pumps by
submersible pumps even to get drinking water
 Ultimately hamper ecological balance of area
Stress on groundwater resource will increase day
by day & becomes acute with extension
of irrigated agriculture along
with climate variability

40. ADAPTATION
MEASURES

41. SCHEMATIC DIAGRAM OF MAR TECHNIQUE

42. FEATURES OF RECHARGE STRUCTURE
 Installed: November, 2013
 Total catchment (roof of corrugated iron): 200 m2
from where rainwater from roof is used to recharge
aquifer through pipes
 Recharge points in each village: Five and rainwater
from roof used to recharge aquifer through pipes
 Rainwater before injecting into recharge structure:
Makes free from silt and debris
 Recharge box: 1.5 m × 1.5 m size filled with sand and
brick cheeps of 6 mm, 10 mm and 20 mm sizes
 Depth of recharge box: 3 m in top clay layer (Zone-I)
 GWT monitoring well diameter: 15.25 cm

43. Recharge Box
Interior of Recharge Box
RWH: Sharing with People
Observation Well Rain Gauge
Station
ENGINEERING ASPECT OF RWH

44. GROUNDWATER TABLE FLUCTUATION
BEFORE MAR APPLICATION
Till 2004, GWT came back to its original position,
but after that fluctuation of GWT remained at minimum level
due to inadequate groundwater recharge with prevailing
drought condition in Barind Area
Max Min GWTF
Avg.(91-95) 14.6 5.2 9.4
Avg.(96-00) 17.2 4.8 12.4
Avg.(01-05) 18.1 6.7 11.7
Avg.(06-10) 18.9 12.2 6.5
Average GWT depth (m) in Nachole Area

45. GROUNDWATER TABLE FLUCTUATION
AFTER MAR APPLICATION
After MAR Application situation started to reverse, GWT
rising in response to artificially augmented recharge
Year
Mallickpur Village Ganoir Village
Max, m Min, m Max, m Min, m
2014 13.66 5.80 34.13 26.00
2015 09.88 5.5 32.66 25.7

46. CHIMISTRY OF GROUNDWATERPhysicalParameters
Pre-MAR
Technique
Post-MAR
Technique
Remarks
WHO(2008) / BDWS(2004) /
EU (1998) / ECR(1997)
Standard
pH 6.9-7.2 7.1 Neutral Type Permissible quality
EC s/cm 519-675 500 Moderately saline Safe for drinking purpose and
irrigation on almost all soils
Temp.0C 25.5-26.0 26.0
ChemicalConstituents
Ca2+ mg/l 46.4- 72.5 36.2
Within drinking and irrigation
quality standard
Fetotal mg/l 0.48-1.29 1.16
SO4
2- mg/l 0.5-0.6 0.6
PO4
- mg/l 0.40-0.50 0.30
NO3
- mg/l 05.0-08.0 0.50
As mg/l 0.01 0.01 Free from toxicity Free from hazard
Fecal Coliform Nil Nil Safe for drinking purpose
Quality of Groundwater before and After MAR is Safe for Drinking & Irrigation

47. WELL RECHARGE MODEL FOR RWH
Single Chamber
Model for
Mondumala
Pourashova
Building, Tanore

48. CONSTRUCTION PHASE OF WELL
RECHARGE TECHNIQUE FOR RWH
IN MONDUMALA POURASHOVA BUILDING

49. DUG WELL RECHARGE FOR RWH
Dug well recharge for RWH in
Kakon Hat Pouroshova and Auditorium Building

50. CONSTRUCTED CROSS DAM SITE FOR
SURFACE WATER CONSERVATION IN
GOBRATALA AREA, CHAPAI-NAWABGANJ

51. THANKS
Catch Water Where It Falls