Chicago soybean futures reached a six-week high on Monday, driven by speculators who are optimistic about higher prices, thanks to robust demand for U.S. soybeans and soymeal. Concurrently, wheat futures experienced a slight decline as shipments from Ukrainian Black Sea ports resumed following a three-day hiatus, while corn prices showed an increase.
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Soybeans Rise to 6-Week High Amid Strong Demand for US Soymeal.pdf
1. Soybeans Rise to 6-Week High Amid Strong Demand for US Soymeal
Chicago soybean futures reached a six-week high on Monday, driven by speculators who are
optimistic about higher prices, thanks to robust demand for U.S. soybeans and soymeal.
Concurrently, wheat futures experienced a slight decline as shipments from Ukrainian Black Sea
ports resumed following a three-day hiatus, while corn prices showed an increase.
Chicago Soybean Futures Rise on Strong Demand
Andrew Whitelaw, an analyst from Australian consultancy Episode 3, pointed out the strong demand
for soymeal, which has a direct influence on U.S. soybean pricing. He also highlighted that
Argentina's poor crop has led to a reduction in global meal supplies. The most active soybean
contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) rose by 0.8% to $13.30-1/4 a bushel, reaching $13.31
at its peak, marking the highest since September 18. CBOT wheat experienced a 0.3% decline,
trading at $5.74 a bushel, while corn saw a 0.6% increase, reaching $4.83-1/2 a bushel.
Soybeans were en route to their most significant monthly gain since February 2022, showing an
increase of approximately 4.3%. In contrast, soymeal experienced a more rapid increase, with CBOT
December meal marking a roughly 15% increase this month and achieving a contract high of $448.4
a ton on Friday. The export of U.S. soybean meal has been thriving during this season, with
substantial weekly sales volumes, particularly following a low soybean harvest in Argentina, a key
supplier of soymeal.
2. Wheat Futures Slightly Lower, Corn Rises
In recent weeks, there has been a surge in speculative buying of soymeal, and speculators have also
reduced their net short position in CBOT soybean futures for the week ending on October 24,
according to regulatory data. On Friday, traders noted that commodity funds included net buyers of
soybeans, soymeal and soy oil. On the other hand, Brazil's top grain state, Mato Grosso, has been
grappling with disparities in soy planting speed due to the El Nino climate phenomenon, which could
potentially impact the planting of second corn, as noted by farmers and experts.
Shifting to wheat, the resumption of shipping from Ukrainian Black Sea ports in the Odessa region,
after a three-day pause, saw four vessels departing on Friday. Independent transport sector
consultancy STC confirmed this development. Ukrainian Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov
later disclosed that these four vessels were carrying almost 130,000 tonnes of grain. This resumption
of shipments has alleviated concerns regarding potential disruptions to Ukrainian exports.
According to agricultural ministry data, Ukraine has exported 8.72 million metric tons of grain in the
2023-24 July-June marketing season, as of Friday. This figure is lower than the 12.34 million tons of
grain exported by Ukraine by October 28 last year. Wheat prices remain close to three-year lows due
to Russia's substantial exports. Moreover, favorable rainfall in major exporting countries such as
Argentina and Australia has contributed to bountiful crops, putting downward pressure on prices.
The European Commission, in its monthly data released on Thursday, reduced its forecast of EU soft
wheat exports in 2023/24 to 31 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons.
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