The oil & gas industry has had a volatile ride for the last decade. Oil prices have been fluctuating between $30 and $130/bbl and with Shale oil appearing as a serious competitor and LNG positioning itself more as the transitionary fuel of the future. Of course we never knew what we do not know but it seems to be getting more unclear what the future holds, especially for the oil & gas industry. Uncertainty seems to rule, and turbulence of our business environment seems to be reaching a new tipping point year after year, and the end of common strategic planning is in sight.

1. A 3 DAY MASTERCLASS
STRATEGIC INNOVATION
IN OIL & GAS
In a world of increasing uncertainty and accelerated change, how
do you ensure value creation and sustainable growth?
Your Expert Course Director
LEO ROODHART
Leo’s career in the oil & gas industry spans more than 30 years in the areas of Production Engineering, Strategic
Innovation and Scenario Planning, Renewable Energy and New Business Development in Shell globally. He
became President of the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) in 2009. As President of the SPE he travelled the
Energy world and built an extensive external network in the oil and gas industry.

2. Masterclass Overview
The oil & Gas industry has had a volatile ride for the last decade. Oil prices have been fluctuating between $30 and
$130/bbl and now with Shale oil appearing as a serious competitor and LNG positioning itself more as the transition fuel
of the future. Of course we never knew what we do not know but it seems to be getting more unclear what the future
holds, especially for the oil & gas industry. Uncertainty seems to rule, and turbulence of our business environment
seems to be reaching a new climax year after year, and the end of common strategic planning is in sight.
The main culprit or accelerator here is technology enabled innovation. Would you have thought that social networking
tools, developed to engage communities, such as Twitter and Facebook would have aided the overthrow of
governments? It has been said before that the Stone Age did not end due to lack of stones. One technology break-
through in battery technology or superconductivity might completely change the energy world and with it the massive
oil & gas industry and infrastructure that now fuel the world economy.
This Master Class is about crafting and executing a resilient technology strategy supported by strategic innovation. The
course introduces the concept of Scenario Planning linked to a long-term Strategic Innovation Strategy. It attempts to
cover important questions such as how to identify relevant innovation domains and how to fill these domains with
projects that allow the company to grow in an uncertain world.
The participants will learn how to make scenarios for oil & gas industry, identify plausible futures for their own company
and design pathways to travel to these futures supported by a robust innovation strategy. The course format will
include lectures interspersed with exercises where the participants make their own long-term scenarios; identify
technology domains to support these scenarios and finish with an implementation plan. Discussions and exercises will
use existing scenarios developed by the World Economic Forum (WEF), Shell and others as examples.
What this course will focus on:
 Futures; uncertainty in a complex world
 Scenarios; how to make them practical
 Strategic Innovation; Planning and executing
What are benefits from attending this Masterclass?
 Design and build long term scenarios to explore strategic expectations
 To be able to define a long term innovation strategy focused on possible future needs supported by long term
business scenarios
 Understand stage-gated technology development and innovation
 Learn how to value a portfolio of innovation projects, use various ‘lenses’ to manage and cull.
 Use scenario thinking linked to innovation to create options for new ventures
 Deploy transparent and structured frameworks for new ways of doing business
 Understand and minimise risk in technology investment decisions
 Safeguard enterprise and growth against black swan events
 Balance bottom up innovation with top down corporate strategy
Who Should Attend?
Business unit leaders and managers across the energy, oil & gas value chain, planners, strategist, analysist, change
management professionals, information and technology systems professionals, business development professionals,
economists, risk management managers and others involved in driving change and innovation in the organisation.
University level degree preferred. Familiarity with the energy business will be essential.

3. 3 DAY MASTERCLASS PROGRAM
DAY 1
Key Leanings:
 Why do I need to know about scenarios;
 What are scenarios;
 How are they built;
9:00 Introductions
9:30 What are scenarios and how are they used
• Exploring strategic assumptions
• Models; Forecasts; Visions; Scenarios
10:30 Break
11:00 Changes and Challenges in the Oil and Gas Industry
• Introduction
• Exercise 1 - Identify top 3 challenges and top 3 changes
12:00 What are scenarios
• Different views of the same
• Shell scenarios; World Economic Forum (WEF) scenarios; Wartsilla
scenarios
13:00 Break for lunch
14:00 Making Scenarios
• Strategic Landscapes
• Different scenario building methods
• Identify 2 most critical and uncertain factors
• Create a scenario matrix
• Communicating scenarios
15:30 Break
16:00 Exercise 2 - Make your own Global Scenarios:
• Formulate central questions
• Identify driving forces and critical uncertainties
• Create 2x2 grid based on impacts and uncertainties in the energy
world
• Name quadrants -> scenarios
17:00 Present scenarios to group
DAY 2
Key Learnings:
• How are Scenarios used
• How do I use scenarios to focus Innovation
• how to generate strategic options
• How to Innovate
9:00 Using Scenarios
• WEF Mining and Metals scenarios with video presentation
• Exercise 3 - Review the main points:
o Update yesterday’s scenarios and develop Stories.
o Develop list of implications emerging from each
scenario
10:30 Break
11:00 Using Scenarios: From Scenarios to creating strategic options
• The concept of various pathways:
 company future
 innovation domains
 future technology
 Testing options - ‘wind tunnelling’
12:30: Lunch
13:30 From Scenarios to strategic options
• Exercise 4 - Identify plausible future for the company
• Identify key threats and opportunities for the oil and gas sector in each
scenario
• Identify the strength and weaknesses of “your” company in each scenario
• Combine opportunities and strengths to identify alternative company future
or strategic options, aiming for 2 plausible futures per scenario
• Combine treats and weaknesses to identify what is missing to get there
• Aiming for 4 Domains per pathway 15:00 Present to group
15:30 Break
16:00 Filling the Domains with projects: Innovate!
• What is innovation?
o Examining the Kodak example
• Innovation processes
o The Funnel
• Generating ideas:
o Open innovation
o GameChanger
o Scouts 17:30 Close
DAY 3
Key Learnings:
 How to make an Innovation strategy
 Stage-gated processes
 how to manage an innovation project portfolio
 how to use ‘lenses’ to rank the portfolio
 Execution is Key
9:00 Innovation strategy as part of the greater technology strategy
 NASA’s technology ‘readiness levels’ concept
 Governance; bottom-up vs. Top-down 10:30 Break
11:00 Manage the portfolio
 Execution is key - the use of strategic ‘lenses’
 Exercise 5 - portfolio ranking:
 Develop 5 realistic strategic lenses
 Look at the portfolio through each lens and score projects
 Crossplot lenses and identify top 5 projects 12:30 Present to group
13:00 Lunch
14:00 The Valley of Death
 The most difficult of all: Implement a new concept in the business
 Bottlenecks and hurdles
 Deployment models
Exercise 6: How will your company from now on:
 Scan, evaluate and prioritize emerging technologies
 Link emerging technologies to markets in a timely manner
 Tie technology investments to corporate strategy
 Manage the tension between radical and incremental innovation
 Get new technology adopted by operating companies 17:00 Questions and
answers and end of course
17:00 Questions and answers and end of course

4. About your Expert Couse Faculty
LEO ROODHART
Leo’s career in the oil and gas industry spans more than 30 years in the areas of Production
Engineering, Strategic Innovation and Scenario Planning, Renewable Energy and New Business
Development in Shell globally. He became President of the Society of Petroleum Engineers
(SPE) in 2009. As President of the SPE he travelled the Energy world and built an extensive
external network in the oil and gas industry.
His last position was head of Group GameChanger, Shell’s corporate strategic innovation program that identifies
and sponsors the development of new breakthrough technologies in the context of the various technology
futures for the oil industry. In this role, he built and led Shell’s innovation network “the GameChanger
Coalition”, a very effective cross business unit of innovators and strategists that generates a portfolio of options
for potential new businesses and technologies. He was instrumental in defining the group’s innovation strategy
and successfully executed a number of projects ranging from biofuels from Algae to floating LNG. He brought
Scenario thinking into Shell’s innovation process and aligned Shell’s innovation portfolio with Shell’s corporate
strategy.
Leo is currently an Associate Fellow at Said Business School, University of Oxford, on strategic innovation and
teaches strategic innovation at the MBA program of the London Business School. He published papers in
numerous technical journals such as the Journal of Petroleum Technology, and business journals including
Research Technology Management Journal and Long Range Planning. He was also a senior advisor to
Schlumberger from 2010 – 2015. Leo retired from Shell in 2010, having joined the company in 1980 after
acquiring a PhD in Mathematics and Physics.
Leo developed the 3 day course, based on a publication with Oxford University Rafael Ramirez, on scenario
planning and how to link long term global scenarios to a short term innovation strategy
sgd
STRATEGIC INNOVATION IN THE OIL & GAS
R E G I S T R A T I O N F O R M

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